High ‘N’ Dry – that pretty much sums up this week’s forecast. High pressure provides dry weather for most of the week.
High pressure will settle into the Northeast for the next few days. This means we’ll have dry and cool conditions for the first part of the week, with temperatures and humidity levels starting to creep up as we get to the latter half of the week. As is usually the case, temperatures will be coolest along the coast thanks to onshore flow, and well see some fair-weather cumulus clouds pop up each afternoon across the interior.
Water temperatures are in the upper 50s to lower 60s off the east coast, and lower to middle 60s off the south coast. Image provided by NOAA.
By late in the week, we’ll be warm to potentially hot, and humid, with the chance for some showers and thunderstorms to pop up on Friday afternoon. The weekend is a bit of a question mark at this point. The models have 2 separate but equally plausible solutions right now. One model has the heat come to an abrupt end Saturday afternoon with a backdoor cold front, leading to much cooler conditions for Saturday night and Sunday, along with plenty of clouds and possibly some showers. Some other models keep us warm and humid with some showers and thunderstorms possible, and a slow-moving cold front still well to our west. For now, we’re going to lean towards the latter solution, but obviously things could change. With next Sunday being Fathers Day, many people will be making plans, especially outdoor plans. We should have a clearer picture when we publish our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon. If the latter solution is indeed correct, some locations across the interior could be near or above 90 starting on Thursday and continuing at least into Sunday.
Little to no rainfall is expected across the region between now and Sunday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Some low clouds and fog this morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 67-74, a little cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 48-55.
Tuesday: Sunshine and lots of it. High 73-80, a little cooler along the coast.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 48-55.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86, again cooler along the coast.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, a few clouds during the afternoon. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 86-93, cooler along the South Coast.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85-92, cooler along the South Coast.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast.
Changes are coming to our weather pattern, some good, some bad.
Showers and some thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front will move across the region later today, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. The front moves through this evening, bringing an end to the shower activity, with some drier air moving in behind it. The front will likely stall out and dissipate off the South Coast on Friday, but with some sunshine developing, we’ll actually be warmer than we are today, with less humidity. Another weak front will move through late in the day, but it will have little moisture associated with it, so you’ll barely notice it aside from some clouds accompanying it.
Dewpoints will drop into the 40s and lower 50s for Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in for Saturday, with more sunshine, but some cooler weather. With the high to the north we’ll have an easterly flow, so the warmest weather will be found well inland. Along the coast, temperatures may stay in the 60s all day, even with the sunshine.
As we get to Sunday and Monday, things become more uncertain. High pressure will be moving into Atlantic Canada, while an upper-level low pressure area moves into the Appalachians, spinning up a low pressure area at the surface in the Mid-Atlantic states. We’ll be caught in between these, and at this point, there’s no consensus as to which feature will win out. So, we’re going to play the middle ground for now, with generally cloudy conditions and below normal temperatures, especially along the coast. There will be a risk of some showers, but we don’t expect either day to be a washout. In fact, both days will probably be relatively dry, as the bulk of the shower activity should remain to the south, but some of it could move up this way.
There’s plenty of disagreement among the models as to whether we’ll have any precipitation on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast. Low 59-66.
Friday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 79-86.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 71-78, cooler along the coast.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 68-75, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 51-58.
Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 69-76, a little cooler along the coast.
Heat and humidity will gradually be increasing over the next few days, which means it actually will feel like June.
The first half of the week is a fairly straightforward forecast. High pressure will slide offshore, with generally dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures and humidity levels will gradually increase thanks to southwesterly flow around the high pressure area.
The week starts off with very low dewpoints, but they’ll gradually rise, especially by Wednesday and Thursday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.
By late Wednesday, things start to get a little more complicated. A strong low pressure sure, fueled by whatever is left of “Cristobal”, will be moving across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. It will send a warm front across the region, leading to an increase in humidity levels. The low will move up towards Hudson Bay on Thursday, dragging a cold front into the Northeast. Ahead of that front, it’ll likely be fairly breezy, but also warm and humid, with the front triggering some showers and thunderstorms. There is some disagreement among the models as to when the cold front moves through the region, but right now, we’re leaning towards Thursday night.
Thursday could be a very breezy day, with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier conditions. Next weekend is highly uncertain at this point. An upper-level low pressure system may drift across the Northeast, which would result in some additional clouds and cooler conditions, as well as the chance for a few showers. Some models are more pessimistic than others, but given the fact that it’s been dry lately, we’re going to lean away from the models that are showing more widespread rainfall. There’s an old adage we learned a while ago that holds true with forecasting rainfall – “When in drought, leave it out.” We’re going to go with that.
Rainfall has been near to below normal across the region over the past 60 days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Sunshine and a few high clouds. High 72-79.
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, some clouds pop up during the afternoon. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 70-80 along the coast, 81-88 inland.
Thursday: Partly sunny, windy, and humid with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 79-86, cooler along the south coast.
Friday: Clouds and a few lingering showers across southeastern Massachusetts, otherwise becoming partly sunny and less humid. High 79-86.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81, cooler along the coast.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers. High 71-78, cooler along the coast.
A warm and humid airmass has been in place for a couple of days, but a cold front is approaching the region. That front may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of the region until 8pm. Image provided by NOAA.
After some showers and thunderstorms moved across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island early this morning, some sunshine has developed, allowing temperatures to quickly warm into the 80s away from the south coast by midday. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, making for a rather muggy afternoon.
Temperatures are already well into the 80s away from the South Coast at midday. Image provided by NOAA.
A cold front extends from Lake Champlain into central New York at midday. Ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly. Some strong to severe storms have been moving across portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine already, and these will become more numerous as the afternoon wears on. With an unstable airmass already in place, many of the thunderstorms will become strong to severe, producing strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours.
Forecast through early Sunday morning from the HRRR model. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
The most likely time for severe weather across our area looks to be in the 2-6pm time frame. This is when we’ll have the best chance for severe weather. The front itself may not move through until 7-9pm, and there may be some additional showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front. Some of these storms may produce downpours and gusty winds, but the threat of severe weather should be significantly diminished by then. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front tonight, but Sunday will probably still feature plenty of clouds thanks to an east to northeast wind off the ocean. Some drizzle and a few showers are also possible, but the day won’t be a washout. Temperatures will be much cooler though, staying in the 60s for much of the region. We should start to warm up again on Monday with sunshine returning.
After dumping feet of rain on portions of southern Mexico and Central America, Cristobal is now starting to take aim on the Gulf Coast.
Cristobal is become a little better organized this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.
Early Friday afternoon, Cristobal had strengthened back into a Tropical Storm and was located about 35 miles south-southeast of Merida, Mexico, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. Cristobal should continue moving toward the north, with the center of circulation moving back over the Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. Once that happens, the system should strengthen a bit more.
Cristobal is a bit of a lopsided system right now, with most of the rainfall along with the strongest winds all located east of the center of the storm. While some of the rainfall will eventually rotate around to the western side of the storm, the overall structure of the system likely won’t change much over the weekend. This has important implications that we’ll get to in a little bit.
As Cristobal moves away from Mexico tonight and Saturday, some additional strengthening is expected. The waters of the Gulf are very warm, which will help the storm intensify, but the presence of dry air aloft and some wind shear will act to inhibit significant strengthening. Cristobal should strengthen a bit more on Saturday, but at this time, it does not look like it will become a hurricane before approaching the central Gulf Coast Sunday night.
Model forecasts for the track of Cristobal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The current forecast calls for Cristobal to make landfall as a tropical storm along the coastline of Louisiana Sunday evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is already in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, where tropical storm conditions are expected into Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lakes Ponchatrain and Maurepas. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne, and also along the coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Arepika.
As we mentioned earlier, Cristobal is a bit lopsided, and this should still be the case as the storm moves inland Sunday night. That’s not to say that areas west of the center will escape without issues, but they shouldn’t be as problematic. There will still be some heavy rain, and wind gusts to 30-40 mph, but this isn’t anything the region hasn’t experienced plenty of times before. Near and east of the center are where the problems will become more numerous.
Storm surge of 2-4 feet is expected along parts of the Gulf Coast as Cristobal moves inland. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Cristobal should have sustained winds of 50-60 mph near the center at landfall, but these winds will only be experienced over a small area along the coast. The remainder of the area will likely have sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with some gusts to 50-60 mph. Along the coast, a storm surge of 2-4 feet will result in flooding of some areas, especially the low-lying locations near the Mississippi River entrance. By far, the biggest threat is heavy rain.
GFS forecast for rainfall from Saturday through Tuesday morning across the Gulf Coast, Image provided by WeatherBell.
Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected across a wide area, with isolated totals to 12 inches possible. This will lead to flooding across much of the region. Flood watches have already been issued. Parts of the Gulf Coast have actually been in a drought recently, but too much rain in a short period isn’t a good thing. Once inland, Cristobal should weaken and head northward, bringing heavy rain to parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes early next week.
Tropical Depression Three formed in the Bay of Campeche Monday afternoon and strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal Tuesday afternoon. It made landfall along the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning, and has been drifting around southeastern Mexico and Guatemala for the past 48 hours. Cristobal has produced torrential rainfall, with 15-25 inches of rain reported across much of the region, resulting in widespread flooding. Another 3-6 inches of rain, possibly more, is expected across this region before the system pulls away over the weekend.
Lots of changes are coming over the next few days, but overall, we’re not expecting anything too significant.
It is a fantastic early June afternoon across the region. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.
We’ve got a sunny and warm afternoon in progress, with a frontal boundary stalled out to the south and high pressure trying to build in from the north. That front will start to lift northward again tonight, bringing some clouds back in along with the threat for a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. It will also bring more humid air back in. This will set up a very warm and humid Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up during the afternoon, but they’ll be widely scattered, and probably won’t be that strong.
Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60s across the region Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Saturday could be a different story. It will be another warm and humid day to start, but a cold front will move across the region. This front will likely produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong, but a lot will depend on the timing of the front. If it moves through in the morning or around midday, we’ll just have some garden-variety showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then we’ll start to dry out in the afternoon. If the front doesn’t move through until mid-to-late afternoon, then the atmosphere may have more time to destabilize, and we’ve got a better shot at some stronger thunderstorms. Right now, we’re leaning towards an earlier passage of the front, but obviously we’ll keep an eye on it. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with much drier and cooler conditions, though some low clouds may move in from the ocean on Saturday.
Conditions have become abnormally dry across parts of the area, the first step towards a drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
As for the tropics, Cristobal is still over land, southern Mexico to be specific, and has weakened to a tropical depression. It will continue to produce heavy rain and flooding across the area, but the current forecast calls for it to move back over water on Friday or Saturday, and head northward while strengthening. It will become an increasing threat to the central Gulf Coast by late in the weekend. We’ll have a full blog post about Cristobal and the threat to the Gulf Coast tomorrow.
Current Forecast for Tropical Depression Cristobal. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for some showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Low 60-67.
Friday: More clouds than sunshine, showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. High 79-86.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some lingering showers along the south coast. Low 62-69.
Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, chance for some more showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86, cooler along the south coast.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear and less humid. Low 53-60.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 66-73, coolest along the coast.
Sunday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 49-56.
Monday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 72-79, a little cooler along the coast.
Yesterday was the first day of the official hurricane season in the Atlantic. It also saw the formation of the third system of the season.
Tropical Depression Three developed in the Bay of Campeche Monday afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.
Tropical Depression Three developed in the Bay of Campeche Monday afternoon. The system is the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, which moved into southern Guatemala on Saturday. It has been producing heavy rainfall across portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico since Friday, and that will likely continue for another couple of days as the system mills around in the Bay of Campeche. As of early Tuesday morning, the system was centered about 100 miles west of Campeche, Mexico with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, and was moving toward the west at 5mph. Conditions are favorable for additional strengthening, and the system could be upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday. Since this seems likely, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz.
Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches and locally heavier will likely produce flooding and mudslides across the region this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
This season is the 6th one since 1851 that has seen 2 named storms form before June 1 (1887, 1908, 1951, 2012, and 2016 are the others). If this system is named in the next few days, it will be the earliest we’ve ever had a “C” storm in the Atlantic. The previous record was June 5, 2016, when Tropical Storm Colin was born.
Tropical Depression Three has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The current record for earliest 3rd Atlantic named storm formation date is on June 5, 2016 (Colin). Arthur and Bertha have already formed in the Atlantic in 2020. #hurricanepic.twitter.com/kaIbhSmZtu
The forecast for the system is fairly straightforward for the next few days. The system should mill around in the Bay of Campeche, producing heavy rainfall across southeastern Mexico and neighboring countries, with some strengthening likely. This will produce significant flooding, and mudslides in mountainous areas. As we get into the latter half of the week, things gets significantly more complicated. There are two distinct scenarios presented by the various computer models at this time. The first option is that the system turns northward, and moves across the Gulf of Mexico, heading towards the northern Gulf Coast towards next weekend while strengthening. The second option is that the system moves into southeastern Mexico and dissipates, then a new storm forms near or north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and heads northward later in the week. Either way, residents of the Gulf Coast should pay attention to the progress of this system as as the week goes on.
The 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble show a wide range in the location and strength by thr end of this weekend for what is currently TD 3. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Most of the forecast models do not show this system reaching hurricane strength before moving towards the Gulf Coast, but a few do. This is consistent with early-season storms that impact the United States. Since 1851, only 18 hurricanes have made landfall during the month of June in the United States, and only one (Audrey in 1957) did so as a major hurricane. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986. The earliest in the season that a hurricane has ever made landfall in the United States was June 9, 1966, when Hurricane Alma made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.
June has arrived, which means that we are now officially in meteorological summer. It also means that Hurricane Season has officially begun in the Atlantic.
June is starting on a rather cool note with some frost across portions of Northern New England. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off on a cool note with high pressure at the surface and upper-level trough of low pressure moving across the region. This trough may help produce a few pop-up showers this afternoon, but will also help keep temperatures well below normal today. Another cool night is expected tonight, but not as cool as it was this morning. By Tuesday a warm front will be moving towards the area, with clouds streaming in ahead of it, and possibly a shower or two.
Warmer air moves in on Wednesday as low pressure heads toward the St. Lawrence Valley. With the warm air will be some shower activity and possibly a thunderstorm or two. We’ll remain warm and humid through Thursday and into Friday before another low pressure system passes north of the region. This will bring in more showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night.
Dewpoints will rise into the middle to upper 60s by Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A cold front moves through early Saturday, but we’ll remain on the warm side with developing sunshine during the afternoon. Drier air will filter in behind the front, then high pressure builds in for Sunday with cooler conditions.
Over the weekend, we published our annual look at the upcoming hurricane season, which also contained some stats about how overdue we are for a storm up here, or, as a colleague said “me thinks our clock be tick’n!” We’ve already had 2 named storms this season (we’re still not convinced that “Bertha” was actually a tropical storm), but another system could be brewing in the Bay of Campeche. Conditions will be favorable for a system to develop later this week, and a majority of the forecast models do show a system developing, but they don’t agree on how strong it could get or where it could go. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on it, and if it develops, we’ll keep you updated, but it will likely have little to no impact up here, except for possibly some rain as whatever is left of the system moves through, but that would be a good 10 or more days away, if at all.
The 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble show a wide range in location and strength of a potential tropical system in the Gulf next weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
Monday: Early sun, then clouds develop, with a chance for a few afternoon showers. High 59-66.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 43-50.
Tuesday: Thickening clouds, a few showers are possible late in the day. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 51-58.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a few showers, especially along the south coast. High 73-80.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.
Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 79-86.
Saturday: Morning showers, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.
Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Arthur grazed the Outer Banks of North Carolina and “Tropical Storm Bertha” moved into South Carolina, marking the 6th year in a row that we had at least one named tropical system in the Atlantic before the “official” start of Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. That’s just the start of what looks to be an active hurricane season.
The list of Tropical Cyclone Names for the Atlantic for this season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Arthur produced wind gusts of up to 45 mph across the Outer Banks of North Carolina, with rainfall of 3-5 inches resulting in some flooding. Otherwise, it was a rather unremarkable storm, which is rather typical for early-season storms. Earlier this week, “Bertha” (we’re skeptical that it was really a tropical storm) brought heavy rain into parts of South Carolina. This is the 6th time since 1851 that we’ve had 2 named storms form before June 1 (1887, 1908, 1951, 2012, and 2016 are the others). Despite the early start for the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still in late June or early July. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Like our first two storms this year, most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are in the Gulf of Mexico or northwest Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
An early start is not always a harbinger of what the season will bring. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook last Wednesday, and it calls for a 60 percent chance for an above normal season, a 30 percent chance for a normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Many of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting a busy season, due to a number of factors. An average season consists of 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their forecast on June 4. Their initial forecast from April called for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the United States at 69% (52% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a storm making landfall along the East Coast at 45% (31% is the average). The last 5 seasons have all featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.
The 2019 Hurricane Season was an active one across the Atlantic Basin. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
A busy season does not always mean that multiple storms (or any storms for that matter) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. On the flip side, an inactive year doesn’t mean much for landfall probabilities as well. Only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the 1st one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm.
Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are very overdue for a system to impact us. Using data back to 1851, here are some stats that show how overdue we are:
Since 1851, 36 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. We’re at 9 years since Irene, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, 28 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 6 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 20 years, between 1991 and 2011. We’re at 9 years since Irene, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s been 29 years since Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
Since 1851, 9 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 18.8 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 29 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869, the infamous 1938 Long Island Express, and Hurricane Carol in 1954. That’s an average of 1 every 56.3 years, and the longest time between 2 major hurricanes is 69 years (1869-1938). We’re at 66 years since Carol. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 385 years, or one every 64.2 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 27 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.
We all saw what Sandy did in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath.
The Atlantic is quiet right now, but some of the models show the potential for a system to develop over the next 7-10 days in the western Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche (we’re ignoring the cluster of cumulus clouds in the central Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center is “watching”). Even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island with 90 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 16 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared, as we’ve learned recently.
Changes are coming over the next few days. We’ve been dry for a while, but some rain is in the future. It’s been warm for much of the week, but cooler weather is on the horizon.
Despite plenty of cloudcover, it’s a warm afternoon across most of the region. Loop provided by NOAA.
We start off with high pressure still in control this afternoon and evening. A southerly flow around the offshore high pressure system continues to bring warm and humid air into southern New England. It’s also bringing plenty of cloudcover in. Aside from a few sprinkles here and there, it should remain dry through the afternoon. Low clouds and fog will move back in tonight, especially along the south coast, as the warm and humid air continues to flow into the region.
A cold front will start to move in from the west on Friday. Much of the day will be similar to today with plenty of clouds along with some warm and humid air. We could see a few showers around in the morning, but they’ll be light for the most part and very widely scattered. In the afternoon, as the cold front starts to get closer, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely start to develop across portions of New York down into the Mid-Atlantic states. These storms will move eastward, but once we get into the evening, they’ll start to weaken as they lose the heating of the sun. They move across our area overnight and early Saturday. For the most part, we’re just looking at scattered showers, with some embedded thunder and lightning, and a few heavy downpours.
Strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday, but the bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
The showers should come to an end by midday Saturday as the front finally pushes across the region, then drier air will start to move in. Skies should start to clear our late Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure builds in from Canada. Cooler air will start to settle in on Sunday despite plenty of sunshine. By Monday, an upper-level trough of low-pressure will be moving across the region, so we’ll see some additional clouds and possibly a few showers, but also even cooler conditions are expected.
Away from the South Coast very little rain has fallen over the past week, so we need all that we can get. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog, especially along the South Coast. Low 62-69.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 72-79 south of the Mass Pike, 80-87 north of the Pike.
Friday night: Cloudy with showers likely, possibly some thunder. Low 60-67.
Saturday: Cloudy with showers ending by midday, some clearing takes place in the afternoon, especially north and west of Boston. High 77-84, cooler along the South Coast.
Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 54-61.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid. High 68-75.
Sunday night: Clear skies and cool. Low 44-51.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few afternoon showers. High 61-68.
Storm HQ 