Weekly Outlook: April 12-18, 2021

One of our colleagues called the current weather pattern a “quiet active pattern”, which is a very good way to describe the week ahead.

In the big picture, we’ve got an upper-level low pressure area in place for today into Tuesday before it moves out, but another one moves in for the end of the week and the start of the weekend. Looking a little closer, we’ve got some typical April weather, but since this is New England and not Florida, a lot of you probably won’t like it. Low pressure passes south of the region today into early Tuesday, with plenty of clouds around and a chilly east wind off the Atlantic. Some showers are possible, mainly today, but we’re not looking at widespread rainfall. Wednesday looks a little drier as high pressure tries to build in with some partial sunshine and mild temperatures.

Temperatures will average close to normal around here over the next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The end of the week isn’t looking pretty at this point. As that second upper-level low pressure area moves eastward on Thursday, a low pressure area will likely spin up at the surface near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As it gets caught up under the upper-level low, it will meander around near or just south of New England. The result will be chilly conditions, some gusty winds at times, and periods of rain from later Thursday into Saturday. But that’s not the entire story. With colder air aloft, we could see the rain change over to snow, with some accumulation in the higher terrain, such as the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Could we see snow mix in at lower elevations? Sure, it’s possibility, but accumulations aren’t likely (though not impossible). Remember, it was this same weekend last year (April 17-18), when we had a storm drop 3-6″ of snow on the hills, with up to an inch of snow across the rest of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this situation when we do our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Models are showing the potential for snow, especially in the hills, at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the system pulls away, conditions will slowly improve over the weekend as high pressure starts to build in.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. High 52-59, cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing, possibly changing to snow in the hills at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow at times, especially in the hills. High 35-42 north and west of Boston, 43-50 south of Boston.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers gradually ending. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: April 9-12, 2021

We’re still under the influence of a blocking pattern, which means that changes in our weather will be slow to take place, but there are changes coming.

Right now, we’re on the “good side” on the block, with high pressure in place. That will give us dry and mild to warm conditions through Saturday. Seabreezes will keep coastal areas much cooler, since ocean temperatures are still in the 40s, but away from the coast, temperatures will get well into the 60s and 70s for the next few days.

Saturday is shaping up to be a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As everything slides eastward. changes occur later in the weekend. We’ll see clouds start streaming in late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure starts to move out of the Midwest. Some rain will move in ahead of the system on Sunday, though the day itself probably won’t be a washout. The main storm system will remain in the Midwest, but a secondary area of low pressure will develop and pass south of New England Sunday night and Monday, with some additional showers possible.

We’re not in a drought yet, but we do need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

With the cloudcover and shower activity, it goes without saying that Sunday and especially Monday should be significantly cooler than Friday and Saturday, though Sunday is a bit of a wild card. Most of the models have a backdoor cold front move through around daybreak on Sunday, which results in a chilly day with east winds and temperatures holding steady in the 40s to lower 50s. There is one exception though. The Canadian model (full disclaimer: It’s not usually a good model), delays that backdoor cold front until mid-afternoon Sunday. While this isn’t much of a change in timing, it has a significant effect on the forecast. Instead of temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s, it has temperatures in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday ahead of the front, but then they quickly plunge into the 40s during the afternoon as the front moves through. For now, this is an outlier, but given the pattern that we’re in, a delay of 6-12 hours isn’t that far-fetched. With that in mind, we’re going to lean a little warmer than most of the models for Sunday (for now). If the rest of them are correct, then our forecast is too warm. If the Canadian model is right, then our forecast could be as much as 10-20 degrees too cool.

Most of the models, except for the Canadian and Regional Canadian model, are forecasting a chilly day on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 66-73, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 36-43.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: April 5-11, 2021

Much of this week will feature conditions that are fairly typical for April in New England. That’s good if you live away from the coastline. Near the coast? No so much.

Low pressure south of Nova Scotia was sending clouds into eastern New England early this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.

The week starts off with low pressure off to the east slowly drifting southward. This will keep clouds in place across eastern New England with a few showers possible. We’ll also have northeast winds blowing off the still-chilly Atlantic, resulting in cool temperatures. The farther inland you head, the more likely you are to see sunshine and temperatures that are warmer than normal. Tuesday looks somewhat similar, but as the low pulls away, the small chance for showers we have today goes with it. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday through Friday with sunshine for much of the region along with seasonably mild temperatures.

Drought conditions are starting to develop across parts of the Northeast once again, so we need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Next weekend is where things get tricky again. High pressure will slide offshore on Friday as low pressure starts to approach from the southwest. For the weekend, there are some models that show the high remaining in place, keeping the region dry, but trending cooler. Other models have the rain from the system moving in, resulting in a damp and cool weekend. We’re going to lean on the dry side for now with the forecast, but obviously, the other scenario is just as plausible, so this is a low-confidence forecast. We should have a much better idea by the time we get to our weekend outlook on Thursday.

Will it rain this weekend? Some models say yes, some say no. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few showers along the coast. High 53-60, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 52-59, a little cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56 along the coast, 57-64 inland.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55 along the coast, 56-63 inland.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56 along the coast, 57-64 inland.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 52-59, a little cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 51-58, a little cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: April 2-5, 2021

We’ve got a fairly nice weekend coming up weather-wise, and a second crack at Opening Day after it was rained out today.

Low pressure will pull away from the region tonight, but an upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Northeast for Friday. So, even though we’ll start to clear out late tonight, clouds will come back on Friday. It will also be quite chilly by early April standards. While we’re not expecting any record lows, temperatures won’t be that far off from the records Friday night. High pressure then builds in for the weekend and into Monday, with dry and milder conditions. The only exception for now will be Sunday. An upper-level disturbance will move across the region, with some clouds and possibly a sprinkle or two.

Average highs in early April should be in the lower to middle 50s.

There is one potential fly in the ointment. The upper-level low that moves across the region on Friday will settle into Atlantic Canada this weekend and early next week. This will help to setup a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. At some point early next week, that upper low will drift westward, sending some clouds and perhaps some rain into the region. Right now, it looks like that may not happen until Monday night and Tuesday, but if it happens a little quicker than anticipated, Monday may not be a great day.

The models keep the rain on Monday to our east for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for Fenway tomorrow for Opening Day – it won’t be the nicest of days, but it will be better than today. For first pitch at 2:10pm, skies should be partly sunny, winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph, and temperatures should be around 40.

Thursday night: A lingering rain or snow shower this evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return. High 40-47.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Saturday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in overnight. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for a sprinkle. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.