Weekend Outlook: April 9-12, 2021

We’re still under the influence of a blocking pattern, which means that changes in our weather will be slow to take place, but there are changes coming.

Right now, we’re on the “good side” on the block, with high pressure in place. That will give us dry and mild to warm conditions through Saturday. Seabreezes will keep coastal areas much cooler, since ocean temperatures are still in the 40s, but away from the coast, temperatures will get well into the 60s and 70s for the next few days.

Saturday is shaping up to be a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As everything slides eastward. changes occur later in the weekend. We’ll see clouds start streaming in late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure starts to move out of the Midwest. Some rain will move in ahead of the system on Sunday, though the day itself probably won’t be a washout. The main storm system will remain in the Midwest, but a secondary area of low pressure will develop and pass south of New England Sunday night and Monday, with some additional showers possible.

We’re not in a drought yet, but we do need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

With the cloudcover and shower activity, it goes without saying that Sunday and especially Monday should be significantly cooler than Friday and Saturday, though Sunday is a bit of a wild card. Most of the models have a backdoor cold front move through around daybreak on Sunday, which results in a chilly day with east winds and temperatures holding steady in the 40s to lower 50s. There is one exception though. The Canadian model (full disclaimer: It’s not usually a good model), delays that backdoor cold front until mid-afternoon Sunday. While this isn’t much of a change in timing, it has a significant effect on the forecast. Instead of temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s, it has temperatures in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday ahead of the front, but then they quickly plunge into the 40s during the afternoon as the front moves through. For now, this is an outlier, but given the pattern that we’re in, a delay of 6-12 hours isn’t that far-fetched. With that in mind, we’re going to lean a little warmer than most of the models for Sunday (for now). If the rest of them are correct, then our forecast is too warm. If the Canadian model is right, then our forecast could be as much as 10-20 degrees too cool.

Most of the models, except for the Canadian and Regional Canadian model, are forecasting a chilly day on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 66-73, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 36-43.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High 51-58.

Weekend Outlook: April 2-5, 2021

We’ve got a fairly nice weekend coming up weather-wise, and a second crack at Opening Day after it was rained out today.

Low pressure will pull away from the region tonight, but an upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Northeast for Friday. So, even though we’ll start to clear out late tonight, clouds will come back on Friday. It will also be quite chilly by early April standards. While we’re not expecting any record lows, temperatures won’t be that far off from the records Friday night. High pressure then builds in for the weekend and into Monday, with dry and milder conditions. The only exception for now will be Sunday. An upper-level disturbance will move across the region, with some clouds and possibly a sprinkle or two.

Average highs in early April should be in the lower to middle 50s.

There is one potential fly in the ointment. The upper-level low that moves across the region on Friday will settle into Atlantic Canada this weekend and early next week. This will help to setup a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. At some point early next week, that upper low will drift westward, sending some clouds and perhaps some rain into the region. Right now, it looks like that may not happen until Monday night and Tuesday, but if it happens a little quicker than anticipated, Monday may not be a great day.

The models keep the rain on Monday to our east for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for Fenway tomorrow for Opening Day – it won’t be the nicest of days, but it will be better than today. For first pitch at 2:10pm, skies should be partly sunny, winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph, and temperatures should be around 40.

Thursday night: A lingering rain or snow shower this evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return. High 40-47.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Saturday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in overnight. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for a sprinkle. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: March 26-29, 2021

We can often get some wild swings in weather in late March, and while this weekend’s won’t be that dramatic, we do have some big changes coming.

As skies clear out this afternoon, temperatures will jump into the upper 60s and 70s. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

Unseasonably warm conditions will remain in place this afternoon into Friday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. This is the same system responsible for all of the severe weather down South today. We’ll stay warm ahead of the system into early Friday before some rain moves in. With mild air in place, don’t be surprised if we have a rumble of thunder with the shower activity Friday morning. A cold front will be moving toward the region during the day, and ahead of it, temperatures could get close to 70 again, if we can get any sunshine.

At least one model shows the potential for Friday to be very warm ahead of a cold front. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

That front will move through late in the day, possibly with some more showers or thunderstorms. Behind it, gusty winds will usher cooler air into the region. While this shouldn’t be as potent as the last couple of wind events we’ve had, it could be enough to take down a few trees or power lines. High pressure then builds in for Saturday with sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. By Sunday, another system quickly moves in, with rain likely. Since it’s been a dry month, we really need the rain, even though it’ll make for a rather damp Sunday. Rain ends Sunday night as the system drags a cold front across the region, then high pressure returns on Monday with sunshine and much cooler conditions.

Precipitation has been well below normal across the region since the start of the year. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Cloudy with some areas of fog likely, showers developing by daybreak. Low 47-54.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, mainly during the morning, maybe a thunderstorm too, some late-day clearing is possible, becoming breezy. High 64-71, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 39-46.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to move back in late in the day. High 53-60, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers ending, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 33-40.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 42-49.

Weekend Outlook: March 19-22, 2021

Spring doesn’t start until Saturday morning, and Mother Nature is going to remind us of that fact.

The storm system responsible for all the severe weather over the past few days will pass south of the region tonight, with rain likely. However, as colder air settles in tonight, we’ll see that rain change over to snow from north to south. We’re not expecting much snow, with most places likely seeing an inch or less, possibly 2 inches in a few spots. That’ll be just enough to remind you that it’s still technically winter.

We’ll have a little snow overnight, but it won’t last too long. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll clear out Friday afternoon, but it will be windy and chilly. After that, high pressure builds in for the weekend with sunshine and moderating temperatures. We’ll get into the 40s on Saturday, while Sunday and Monday will see temperatures in the 50s and possibly 60s.

Temperatures could approach 60 on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Breezy with rain likely, changing to wet snow, ending by daybreak. Low 21-28.

Friday: Early clouds, then clearing and windy in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 26-33.

Sunday: Sunny and milder. High 53-60, coolest along the coast.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 54-61, coolest along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: March 12-15, 2021

After today’s warm weather, it is definitely time for change, with cooler weather working its way into the region over the next few days.

Temperatures have reached or exceeded 70 across much of the region this afternoon. Image provided by NOAA.

A cold front moves crosses the area late tonight with some clouds and possibly a shower or two, but the more noticeable impact will be cooler temperatures on Friday. Late Friday, a stronger cold front will move through. Like the first one, there will be little moisture with this front, but gusty northwest winds may create some issues at night, but not nearly as bad as the front from a week and a half ago. They will also bring much cooler weather in for Saturday. Winds will diminish during the day on Saturday with sunshine and temperatures closer to where they should be in mid-March. Sunday should be fairly similar with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures, but winds may pick up a little. Monday also looks dry but breezy and even colder, with most places staying in the 30s all day.

Average high temperatures for the middle of March are in the middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 45-52.

Friday: A few showers near the South Coast and Cape Cod early, otherwise becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 55-62.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, windy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy during the morning. High 38-45.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunny, breezy, and colder. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: March 5-8, 2021

Sunshine and cold temperatures. That’s pretty much what we have in store for the next several days.

A strong low pressure area over Labrador will be the dominant feature in our weather through tomorrow. Image provided by Environment Canada.

A strong area of low pressure will sit and spin across eastern Canada for the next few days. This will result in windy and chilly conditions across the region, with some clouds at times as well. Meanwhile, high pressure currently over western Ontario will slowly slide southeastward over the next few days, providing us with dry but chilly conditions through the weekend. As the high slides offshore early next week, the dry weather will continue, but a warming trend is expected.

Temperatures will average nearly 10 degrees below normal over the next several days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy and breezy. Low 12-19.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 27-34.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 11-18.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy again. High 27-34.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 10-17.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 29-36.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 14-21.

Monday: Sunny, not as cold. High 36-43.

Temperatures could turn much milder during the second half of next week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Weekend Outlook: February 19-22, 2021

The weekend starts off with some snow, and it looks like it might end with some snow as well, for at least part of the region.

The steadiest snow has been confined to the South Coast thus far. Loop provided by Weathertap.

We’ve got a series of weak low pressure areas passing south of the region tonight into Friday night. This will produce some occasional light snow well into Friday night, possibly lingering into Saturday morning for east-coastal areas, thanks to northeast winds behind the last of the storm systems. Along the South Coast, some sleet or rain may mix in for a while tonight and early Friday, keeping accumulations down a bit. For most of the region, this will be a general 3-6 inch snowfall, a little less along the South Coast, perhaps a little more across eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. Considering the snow is falling over the span of 24-36 hours, it will be an annoyance, but not that big of a deal.

The NWS Blend of models is still closest to our thinking for snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While we may see some sunshine develop on Saturday behind the storm, an upper-level low pressure area will cross the Northeast, generating more clouds and perhaps a few snow showers. These shouldn’t produce much additional accumulation. We’ll clear out for Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be on the chilly side, but nothing that extraordinary for the latter half of February.

By Monday, the next storm system moves toward the region. With cold air in place, we’ll have snow developing across much of the region, but a change to rain seems likely, at least south and east of Interstate 95, possibly even farther inland. How far inland will depend on whether a secondary storm system develops to our south or not, which the models don’t agree on at this point. Either way, this system will be a fast-mover, and won’t contain a lot of precipitation, so even in places where it doesn’t change to rain, we’re not expected a lot of snow, possibly a few inches.

The models don’t agree on how far inland the rain/snow line will get on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Occasional light snow, possibly mixed with a little sleet or rain across the South Coast and Cape Cod. Low 21-28.

Friday: Occasional light snow, mixed with a little sleet or rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast. High 28-35.

Friday night: Light snow and snow showers tapering off. Low 20-27.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks, especially inland. A few snow showers are possible, especially in the morning in eastern areas. High 29-36.

Saturday night: Clearing. Low 12-19.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 28-35.

Sunday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10-17.

Monday: Cloudy with light snow developing, changing to rain during the afternoon from Boston southward. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: February 12-15,2021

Who’s ready for some warmer weather? Well, you’d better head to Florida then, because it’s going to remain fairly chilly around here for a while.

High pressure builds in tonight with some clearing and a chilly night expected. Temperatures will drop into the single numbers in many areas, with some subzero readings possible. Friday will remain chilly with high pressure in control, but we’ll see more clouds as an upper-level disturbance crosses the region. Clouds will become more prevalent on Saturday as a storm system starts to approach from the southwest. This will bring in some light snow for Saturday night into early Sunday. Temperatures won’t be as cold as tonight and Friday, so we’ll probably see some sleet and/or rain mixing in, mainly south of Boston. This will not be a blockbuster storm, with most places likely seeing just 1-2 inches of snow, possibly a little more in a few spots. High pressure returns on Monday with dry and cold conditions.

We’re not expecting much snow from the system on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 2-9, a little warmer along the coast.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 21-28.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 5-12.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High 23-30.

Saturday night: Cloudy with some light snow developing. Low 13-20.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with some light snow, possibly mixed with sleet or rain south of Boston, ending by early afternoon. High 28-35.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 16-23.

Monday: Clouds and a few sunny breaks. High 27-34.

Weekend Outlook: February 5-8, 2021

While the next few days will be anything but quiet around here, we’re not expecting anything extraordinary in the weather department either.

Low pressure will move up the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday. As is usually the case when that happens, we’ll have somewhat milder air move in along with some light rain. However, temperatures will still be cool enough that the rain may start as snow north and west of Boston if it moves in by midday. As the milder air takes over, the snow should change over to rain, but there may be enough snow to coat the ground in spots. We’re not expecting a lot of rain, nor are we expecting a big warmup, so don’t expect much of the snow from the storm earlier this week to melt.

High pressure builds in behind the system for Saturday with some sunshine returning along with seasonable temperatures. The latter half of the weekend is where things get tricky. We’re watching two pieces of energy, one in the northern jet stream and another to the south. If these two were to meet up, or “phase”, we could end up with a big storm. Some of the models were hinting at that possibility earlier in the week, but it looks a lot less likely now. What is more likely to happen is that the southern system starts to develop but passes well south of the region, possibly delivering a little light snow to parts of the South Coast and maybe a little farther northward. The northern system will swing through here with some flurries or snow showers. Overall, not a big deal for most of us. Parts of the South Coast could see a few inches of snow depending on how far north the ocean storm actually gets, but otherwise, we’re not anticipating much accumulation across the region, unless things change in the next day or two.

The models do not agree on the placement of a storm system south of the region Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As we head into Monday, high pressure start to build back in with drier and colder weather. While it is likely the start of a colder pattern overall around here, temperatures will only be a little below normal for early February. The bulk of the cold air will stay well to our west. In parts of the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies, temperatures will be as much as 35-45 degrees below normal this weekend, with some areas dropping to 30-40 below zero at night, and daytime highs only in the -10 to -15 range. Wind chills will be colder than -50 in parts of the region.

By Monday morning, wind chills in parts of Minnesota and North Dakota will be colder than -50! Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 17-24.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly in the afternoon, starting as some wet snow north and west of Boston. High 37-44.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 21-28.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 32-39.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 16-23.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance for some light snow, mainly across southern Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. High 32-39.

Sunday night: Clearing. Low 12-19.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and colder. High 24-31.

The longer-range forecast shows colder weather settling in for much of next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekend Outlook: January 29-February 1, 2021

Bond villian Elliot Carver said it in “Tomorrow Never Dies”, but it’s appropriate for the forecast for the next several days – “Let the mayhem begin”

We start off with a developing low pressure system well offshore tonight. The system will continue to strengthen, but also continue to pull away, so it won’t directly impact us. However, it will produce northerly winds around here that will serve two purposes. First, they’ll continue to produce some ocean-effect snow across parts of eastern Massachusetts and the New Hampshire Seacoast, and second, they’ll usher in some of the coldest air thus far this winter.

Low pressure well south of New England shows up nicely on satellite imagery this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

First, we’ll look at the ocean-effect snow. It’s been ongoing since early this morning, and will continue off and on into this evening. While it won’t amount to much for a good chunk of the region, right along the coast, especially Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth County, and Cape Cod, could see an inch or two in spots. On Friday, a disturbance rotating around the ocean storm will bring some more ocean-effect snowfall back into Cape Cod. This could result in additional accumulations, especially across the Outer Cape, where a few inches is possible.

A few inches of snow may accumulate across the Outer Cape over the next day or two. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Back to the cold air. This past week has been rather chilly compared to the rest of January, but temperatures have only been near to a little below normal. That’s going to change tonight and this weekend. Skies will start to clear out tonight (except for Cape Cod), and it’s going to get cold. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers for much of the region tonight, but it will remain quite breezy, so we’re looking at wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero Friday morning. Wind Chill Advisories have been posted from Worcester County westward, but even without the advisory, you should know enough to dress warmly if you have to go outside.

Bundle up before you head outside Friday morning because it’s going to be chilly. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Friday looks rather chilly as well. Some clouds may move in from the ocean, but even in places where the sun is out, it’ll still be breezy and cold, with daytime highs only in the teens to lower 20s. Skies clear out again Friday night and winds will start to diminish, so we’re looking at another cold night, with some places possibly dropping below zero. Saturday should feature a lot of sunshine, but it will still be cold, with highs only in the upper teens to lower 20s. After another bitterly cold night Saturday night, temperatures should start to moderate a bit on Sunday, but we’ll also see clouds starting to move back in ahead of another storm system heading this way. This brings us to Monday.

For several days now, most of the forecast models have been showing the potential for a storm system to impact the Northeast early next week. They’ve bounced around with the details on strength, timing, and track, but in general, there’s been a fairly strong signal that something is going to happen around here after we flip the calendar to February. Well, that signal hasn’t gone away, and the Universal Hub website has upgraded to a Level 2 on the French Toast Alert System. In other words, don’t worry just yet. However, knowing how the media can be around here, and knowing what the models are showing, we’re issuing our own Extreme Hype Watch. An Extreme Hype Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for media hype of an event to reach extreme levels within the next 48-72 hours. If conditions warrant, a Hype Advisory or Extreme Hype Warning will be issued as the event draws nearer.

As for the system itself, there are still plenty of questions that need to be answered. We’ll have a large high pressure area in eastern Canada keeping some cold air in place. It’s not quite in the ideal position for a big storm here, but it is there. We’ll have a low pressure system moving through the Midwest that will redevelop over the Mid-Atlantic states, then head northeastward, likely passing south and east of New England, close to the “benchmark”. The benchmark is at 40 degrees North latitude and 70 degrees West longitude, about 90 miles south of Nantucket. Storms that pass over that spot are usually (but not always) in a prime position to deliver heavy snow to much of the region. Storms that pass north and west of there usually end up with a rain/snow line farther inland, and storms that pass south and east of there don’t always deliver snow far inland. This is more of a general rule than an absolute, but it’s something we look for. The other issue we have is that an upper-level low pressure area will be moving in, and the storm may get stuck underneath it, which could stall it out or have it meander around south of us for a day or so, which would result in an extended period of precipitation.

In addition to the models, another tool we use is analogs. You will most often hear about these in relation to a seasonal pattern or a hurricane season, but we can also use them for individual storms. Basically, we compare the pattern to previous setups, and see how it compares, and see what those previous setups produced to give us an idea of what is possible. Now, these analogs are run compared to the forecast of one model, so if that model isn’t the one your using, then the analogs might not be of much help. Based on the midday run of that model, the best analog for the pattern early next week is the storm of January 26-28, 2015. You may recall that storm received an extreme amount of media hype, and did produce very heavy snow around here, but was considered a “bust” in New York City, where the actual amounts fell well short of the forecast. It also was the storm that essentially kick-started our 6-week snow blitz (and also was responsible for the formation of the original StormHQ Facebook page). Using the Top 15 analogs for the forecast pattern, here’s the average of snowfall from those 15 systems:

Analog snowfall forecast for Monday-Tuesday. Image provided by the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS).

As you can see, there is a signal for a significant snowstorm, which is why we’re going to be monitoring this closely for the next several days. We’re not going to post any model snow forecasts yet because there’s still too much uncertainty. We’ll let the media and Facebook Forecasters take care of that. If conditions warrant, we’ll issue another blog post either Saturday or Sunday as the details become more clear.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy along the coast with a few snow showers across the Cape, clearing inland, breezy. Low 1-8.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, more snow showers across Cape Cod, windy. High 13-20.

Friday night: Lingering clouds across Cape Cod, clear elsewhere, still breezy during the evening. Low 2-9.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, except for some clouds across the Outer Cape. High 16-23.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 0-7.

Sunday: High clouds stream in. High 22-29.

Sunday night: Thickening clouds. Low 12-19.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow (or possibly rain south of Boston) High 30-37.