Weekend Outlook: August 14-17, 2020

We’ve got a tug-of-war this weekend between high pressure to our northeast and a frontal boundary stalled out to the south. For the most part, the high should win out.

The late-morning surface analysis shows high pressure buolding into northern new England and a frontal stalled near the South Coast. Image provided by the Weather Predicition Center.

As high pressure builds in, drier air has also settled in, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s across much of the region. While we’ll still be warm today, cooler air will gradually settle in over the next few days, thanks mainly to east to northeast winds off of the Atlantic. The ocean is about the warmest it will get around here during the year, but it’s still only in the 60s and lower 70s east of New England, so winds blowing off the water will still have a cooling effect, especially along the coastline.

Current sea-surface temperature analysis. Image provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, that front to the south will keep some clouds around, especially along the South Coast. A couple of waves of low pressure will ride along this front. They’ll bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic states, where flash flood watches and warnings remain in effect, but around here, they won’t do much for now. The first wave should pass harmlessly south of the region, except for possibly a few showers along the south coast this afternoon and evening. It’s the second wave, for late Sunday and Monday, that we’re keeping an eye on. Many of the models have it coming in farther north, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. However, we’ve also had plenty of times recently when the models have been trying to bring in widespread showers a few days out, and they just haven’t materialized. As we’ve said several times, the old forecaster’s adage is “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. We wouldn’t be surprised if the high pressure area wins out again, and most of us stay dry Sunday night and Monday too.

The latest Drought Monitor shows the drought worsening across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for some showers. Low 61-68.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, some showers are also possible. High 75-82.

Forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Josephine. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, we’ll briefly mention Tropical Storm Josephine. Tropical Depression 11 strengthened into Tropical Storm Josephine this morning. As of midday, it was centered a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Josephine may strengthen a little more in the next day or so, but after that, it will be moving into some rather unfavorable conditions. The current forecast calls for it to pass north of the Antilles this weekend, by which point strong wind shear could rip the system apart. It will likely dissipate without threatening any land areas. Even if it does survive, it will start to recurve and head out to sea north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas.

Weekend Outlook: August 7-10, 2020

It won’t be all sunshine and warm temperatures, but we should be able to salvage a decent weekend around here.

The high pressure system providing us with a nice day today will slide off to the east tonight, while a weak low pressure system moves along a frontal boundary that has stalled out to our south. That will send clouds our way tonight and Friday. Some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm are expected on Friday as the front tries to lift northward, but they’ll likely be confined to areas south of the Mass Pike. With plenty of cloud cover and east to northeast winds, it definitely be cooler than it has been for a while.

Temperatures may stay in the 70s all day Friday across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As we get to Saturday, a weak upper-level disturbance will move across the region. We’ll still have plenty of clouds, especially early, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible as the disturbance moves through. However, once it exits, skies should start to clear out late in the day, and we’ll get a bit warmer. High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, with warm and humid conditions returning to the area.

The drought will continue to get worse until we get some significant rain on a regular basis. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 74-81.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 60-67.

Saturday: Cloudy with some showers or a thunderstorm early, some sunshine develops in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93.

Weekend Outlook: July 30-August 3, 2020

We’ll have a little bit of everything in the next few days, warm temperatures, high humidity, low humidity, thunderstorms, and maybe a tropical system.

A cold front will slowly cross the region today, with warm and humid conditions ahead of it. The front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, somke of which could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Some thunderstorms may move across the region ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

The front may hang up near the South Coast early Friday, otherwise, everyone else should start to clear out with drier air settling in. High pressure builds in for the rest of the day on Friday and into Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures but comfortable humidity levels.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s across much of the region on Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure starts to move toward the region on Sunday, with a war front bringing in more humid conditions, along with the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms. With some cloud cover it shouldn’t be as hot as recent days, but it will be quite warm.

This sets the stage for Monday, which is a VERY uncertain forecast at this time. We’ll need to keep an eye on what happens with Tropical Storm Isaias. Some models show the potential for the storm or its remnants to move up the coast either Monday or Tuesday. At this point, we really can’t rule out any scenario. It’s still too early to determine what, if any, impact it has up here, but we should start to get a better idea over the next couple of days. We’ll likely have multiple blog posts about Isaias between this evening and this week, so we’ll keep you informed.

Will Isaias head up the coast? It looks that way, but exactly where is still a question. Image providsed by WeatherBell.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 85-92.

Thursday night: Showers gradually ending along the South Coast, skies start to clear out north of the Mass Pike. Low 64-71.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 81-88.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 63-70.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 67-74.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance for a hurricane. Plenty of clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91.

Weekend Outlook: July 24-27, 2020

This outlook will be rather brief, because the forecast is rather simple. We’ll dry out today and Saturday, then heat and humidity return for Sunday and Monday.

Monday looks to be the hottest day, when the heat index could reach 100 in some spots. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 80-87.

Friday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, hot, and humid. High 88-95.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy and muggy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. High 89-96.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks healthier and TD 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll likely publish another blog on the tropics late Friday, but here’s a quick update for you. Tropical Depression 8 has become Tropical Storm Hanna. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the Central and Southern Texas coast, all the way to the mouth of the Rio Grande. A track towards South Texas is likely with landfall on Saturday. Heavy rain is still the main threat. Tropical Storm Gonzalo looks a little healthier this evening, and will likely cross the southern Windward Islands on Saturday. Once it gets past the islands, its future is still very uncertain. In the Eastern Pacific, Douglas is now a Category 4 Hurricane, but will likely start to weaken today. It should pass very close to or right across the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday as either a weakening hurricane or a strong tropical storm.

Weekend Outlook: July 17-20, 2020

Your air conditioner has gotten a much-needed rest for the past few days, but it’s about to get a workout. Some typical summertime weather is coming up for the weekend with heat and humidity settling into New England.

Midday temperatures in the 70s in mid-July? It doesn’t get much better than that. Image provided by NOAA.

High pressure remains in control today with mild temperatures (a little below normal for mid-July) and comfrtoable humidity levels, but that’s about to change. A warm front will send clouds into the region tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday. Most of the storms shouldn’t be that strong, but could contain some heavy downpours. We’re not expecting much, if any, severe weather. Temperatures will remain a little below normal, but it will be breezy and significantly more humid.

Dewpoints could reach the lower to middle 70s by Monday across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in for the weekend and with it comes the heat and humidity. Temperatures will be near or above 90 on Saturday, and should be in the 90s away from the South Coast for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will likely get above 70 for Sunday and Monday as well, so it will be quite uncomfortable if you’re outside for any length of time, as the heat index will be apporoaching (or even exceeding) 100 in some spots. We may get a little relief Monday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms, but that’s about it.

The heat index will be near or over 100 across the region Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thinking about heading to the beach or out on a boat? Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s at beaches along the South Coast and lower to middle 80s at beaches along the east coast this weekend. You’ll have south winds 10-15 mph on Friday, becoming southwest over the weekend, and seas generally 1-3 feet. With a UV Index in the very high range, you’ll start to get a sunburn in just 15 minutes or so, so make sure you put on sunscreen!

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible towards daybreak. Low 56-63.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 71-78.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 63-70.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, humid. High 86-93.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 65-72.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 71-78.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, and humid, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. High 90-97, a little cooler right at the coast.

Weekend Outlook: July 10-13, 2020

Despite the gloom and doom you may have heard or read about elsewhere, this weekend is not going to be a washout.

The heat index is already in the mid-90s across much of the region early this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure remains in control for the rest of your Thursday afternoon, with warm to hot and humid conditions. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm is possible, but if any do form, they’ll be few and far between, and most of us will remain dry. Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight before we turn our attention to Friday.

Ensemble forecasts keep the track of the system close to the coast, and well to our west. Image provided by the University at Albany.

An area of low pressure is trying to develop off the North Carolina coastline this afternoon. Whether this system develops or not, it will head northward over the next 24-48 hours. This will send a surge of tropical moisture northward, resulting in some heavy rain and thunderstorms. Obviously where the heavy rain ends up being focused will be dependent on the eventual development and track of the system, but right now, it looks like the heaviest rain should stay well to our west. Sure, we’ll have some heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning, but this should not be a big deal. Some of the thunderstorms could be quite strong, with gusty winds, downpours, and an isolated tornado is possible, but aside from the slim chance for a tornado, we’ve been dealing with similar conditions for the past couple of weeks on a regular basis.

The heaviest rain should stay well to our west with this system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The showers should end Saturday morning, with partial sunshine developing for the afternoon. However, a warm and humid airmass will remain in place, so we could pop a few showers and thunderstorms again during the afternoon hours. Beyond that, it’ll be more of the same. We’ll have an upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the Northeast, which will help to trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday afternoons, but otherwise, it’ll just be partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and humid.

We usually don’t forecast more than a week out, and this outlook is focusing mainly on this weekend, but we think it’s worth mentioning that some of the long-range guidance is showing the potential for a significant heat wave late next week into the following week. While the core of the heat will likely be focused on the Midwest and parts of the Plains states, it could still get hot around here as well. We’ll have a better look at this in our Weekly Outlook that will be issued early Monday morning.

There is a moderate risk for excessive heat in our area next weekend into the following week. Image provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Friday: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Friday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of them may produce heavy rain. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Showers end early, then becoming partly sunny, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a few late-day showers or thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 3-6, 2020

We’ve passed the midpoint of the year, and arrived at the Fourth of July weekend, so everything will be great for a barbecue, right? For the most part.

High pressure remains in control for the rest of the day, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly well north and west of Boston trough the evening. Friday will be a different story. We’ve got a backdoor cold front dropping down (what month is this?) and it will bring in plenty of clouds, some showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm. We’ll likely reach our highs for the day during the morning, with steady or falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Temperatures on Friday will not be typical for early July. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure drops southward on Saturday, resulting in more sunshine for the Fourth of July. However, with easterly winds, it will be on the cool side, especially if you’re closer to the coast. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal, with most places staying in the 70s, but a few coastal locations may stay in the 60s.

The high slides offshore Saturday night, allowing milder air to move back in, but another cold front will be approaching on Sunday. This front will probably produce a few showers and thunderstorms, but the day likely won’t be a washout. Another disturbance may bring in some additional showers on Monday.

The thunderstorms over the last week helped a little, but we still need more rain to help alleviate the developing drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for an evening shower. Low 63-70.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High 70-77 in the morning, temperatures drop a bit in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 57-64.

Independence Day: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some fog may redevelop, especially across southeastern Massachusetts. Low 58-65.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 80-87, cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with showers and thunderstorms possible. High 80-87.

Weekend Outlook: June 26-29, 2020

The forecast for this weekend is rather simple, yet complicated at the same time.

While fair-weather cumulus are popping across interior areas, high clouds are streaming across southeastern New England this afternoon. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

We’ve got a nice afternoon in progress with sunshine, warm temperatures, and lower humidity, but as is usually the case, that won’t last too long. A weak disturbance moves through tonight, with a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm, focused mainly south of the Mass Pike. High pressure then slides offshore on Friday, with southwest winds, bringing more humidity back to the region. It won’t be as humid as Wednesday was, but it’ll be more noticeable than today.

Dewpoints will get back into the 60s across parts of the region on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By late Friday, a low pressure area will move across Ontario and into southern Quebec. A warm front ahead of the low will move across the area Saturday morning, resulting in another warm and humid day, but with a bit more in the way of cloudcover. As the low continues to move eastward, it will drag a cold front across the region late Saturday night and into Sunday. This front will produce some showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night. This is where things get complicated.

Conditions will be favorable for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms if everything falls together properly. If we get enough sunshine, conditions could become unstable enough for strong to severe storms to form. Some of the storms could produce strong winds and heavy downpours. However, if there’s more in the way of cloudcover, and temperatures are a bit cooler, then we’d just be looking at showers and a few thunderstorms late Saturday and Saturday night.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Saturday, but the highest risk for severe weather is to our west and southwest. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Showers may linger into Sunday as the front moves offshore. As has been the case for a while now, there will be a few spots that pick up some heavy rain in downpours, but most of us will see just a little or even no rainfall. This will provide little to no relief from the drought conditions that are developing across the region. High pressure starts to build in later on Sunday with clearing likely at night, and then Monday should feature seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity, but with an upper-level low pressure area moving through, a few pop-up showers are possible.

The drought is starting to get a little worse across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms possible across Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Low 60-67.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, some showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. High 78-85.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms gradually taper off. Low 62-69.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, some additional showers are possible. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 80-87.

Weekend Outlook: June 19-22, 2020

Astronomical Summer officially begins at 5:43pm on Saturday, but summer weather will be here all weekend.

This morning’s satellite loop shows low clouds and fog burning off before high clouds move into the South Coast. Northern New England remains clear. Loop provided by NOAA.

We’ll be brief today, because it’s really a very simple forecast. High pressure slides offshore, providing us with warm to hot and humid conditions for the next several days. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest days, with temperatures topping 90 in some areas, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Sunday and Monday will be a couple of degrees cooler, as we’ll have a bit more cloudcover, thanks to an upper-level low pressure area moving through. It may produce a few showers and thunderstorms, especially on Monday, but neither day should be a washout.

Dewpoints will be well into the 60s across the region for the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

If you’re thinking of heading to the beach, bring the sunscreen. The UV Index will be in the very high range for the next few days, which means you’ll start to burn in just 15-20 minutes. High tides will be around midday for beaches on the east coast, while south coast beaches will have high tides in the morning, with a low tide around midday. Water temperatures are generally in the 60s right now. For those of you thinking about heading out on a boat, you’ll have southwest to south winds at 5-15 knots for the next few days, seas generally 1-3 feet, and aside from some patchy fog in the mornings, good visibility each day.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Some low clouds and fog are possible along the south coast. Low 61-68.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 86-93, cooler along the South Coast.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon fair-weather clouds, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across southern New Hampshire. High 87-94, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm is possible, but most of the shower activity should stay north and west of the area. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. High 83-90, cooler along the South Coast.

Weekend Outlook: June 12-15, 2020

Changes are coming to our weather pattern, some good, some bad.

Showers and some thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will move across the region later today, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it. The front moves through this evening, bringing an end to the shower activity, with some drier air moving in behind it. The front will likely stall out and dissipate off the South Coast on Friday, but with some sunshine developing, we’ll actually be warmer than we are today, with less humidity. Another weak front will move through late in the day, but it will have little moisture associated with it, so you’ll barely notice it aside from some clouds accompanying it.

Dewpoints will drop into the 40s and lower 50s for Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Saturday, with more sunshine, but some cooler weather. With the high to the north we’ll have an easterly flow, so the warmest weather will be found well inland. Along the coast, temperatures may stay in the 60s all day, even with the sunshine.

As we get to Sunday and Monday, things become more uncertain. High pressure will be moving into Atlantic Canada, while an upper-level low pressure area moves into the Appalachians, spinning up a low pressure area at the surface in the Mid-Atlantic states. We’ll be caught in between these, and at this point, there’s no consensus as to which feature will win out. So, we’re going to play the middle ground for now, with generally cloudy conditions and below normal temperatures, especially along the coast. There will be a risk of some showers, but we don’t expect either day to be a washout. In fact, both days will probably be relatively dry, as the bulk of the shower activity should remain to the south, but some of it could move up this way.

There’s plenty of disagreement among the models as to whether we’ll have any precipitation on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast. Low 59-66.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 71-78, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 68-75, a little cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 69-76, a little cooler along the coast.