The final weekend of astronomical winter will be a fairly quiet one across the region.
Astronomical Spring begins with the Vernal Equinox at 5:24pm Monday. Image provided by EarthSky.org
Clouds start to stream into the region tonight ahead of a warm front. A few showers are likely on Friday as the front moves across the region,, but it will be quickly followed by a cold front early Saturday, which may produce a few more showers. We’ll clear out behind the cold front on Saturday, but the colder air will take its time moving in, so we’ll have another mild day, which shouldn’t interfere with any St. Patrick’s Day celebrations. High pressure settles in for latter half the weekend with dry and cooler weather on Sunday, but temperatures will start to moderate for Monday.
Normal high temperatures for mid-March are generally in the middle 40s for our area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Partly cloudy through the evening, clouds increase after midnight. Low 27-34.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with a few late-day showers. High 47-54.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 33-40.
Saturday: A few showers early, then becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 46-53.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and cooler. High 34-41.
Sunday night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 20-27.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 42-49.
What looked like a complicated forecast earlier this week looks a lot easier now for much of the weekend. Things get a lot more complicated later Monday though.
High pressure will continue to build in tonight and Friday, with generally dry and seasonably cool conditions continuing. A storm system will pass west and then south of the region Friday night and Saturday. The cloud shield from the system will overspread the region late Friday, but most of the snow (or rain) will likely stay to our south and west. Yes, some snow showers may move in Saturday morning (mixed with rain near the South Coast), but accumulations, if any, will be negligible, except toward the Worcester Hills and the hills of northern Rhode Island, but even there, less than an inch is expected. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and Sunday with chilly conditions once again. Monday is where things get interesting.
Very little snow is expected across our area on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will start to move up the coast on Monday, spreading more clouds in, but beyond that, there is considerable uncertainty in the track of the storm. Some models keep it mostly south and east of us, some bring it right up over us. No matter what the track, they all forecast the storm to become fairly strong, and hang around, so the effects of the storm will continue into much of Tuesday. So, at a minimum, we’ll have some gusty winds, and possibly a little coastal flooding, though tides will not be at their astronomical high for the month. As for precipitation, well, that depends on the track. The closer the storm gets, the more likely we’ll see some rain, though snow is possible at the start and the end. The farther inland you get, the more likely you’ll see snow, and possibly some heavy snow. Some of the models are forecasting rather significant snow totals well north and west of Boston, but again, this will be highly dependent on the track. We should have a lot more clarity on this when we publish our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
The models do not agree on the placement or strength of our potential storm early next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, clouds move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.
Friday night: Cloudy with a few snow showers, possibly mixed with rain near the South Coast. Low 26-33.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some snow or rain showers early. High 35-42.
Saturday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.
Sunday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 39-46.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, snow or rain possible late in the day. High 40-47.
Meteorological spring began yesterday, so naturally, we’ve got a snowstorm on the way for a good chunk of the region.
High pressure builds in tonight with some clearing, but it won’t last too long. Couds quickly move back in on Friday as another storm system moves toward the region. This one will be somewhat similar to the last couple where the main storm system crosses the Great Lakes and heads up the St. Lawrence Valley while a secondary storm develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast and heads offshore south of New England. We’ll see snow developing Friday evening, quickly changing to rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Snow will continue overnight, but some warmer air will try to move in aloft, which will likely result in some sleet or rain mixing in. How far north that mixing occurs will obviously have a significant impact on the amount of snow that accumulates. Right now, our best thinking is that the mixing makes it to at least the Mass Pike, possibly up into the Merrimack Valley, during the morning and early afternoon on Saturday. The storm will also produce some gusty easterly winds, which will bring milder air in off the Atlantic, so a change to plain rain is possible near the coastline. By later Saturday afternoon, the system south of New England will pass off to the east, and winds will shift into the northeast and north, bringing cooler air back in, and allowing the precipitation to change back to all snow. While most of the steady snow should wind down towards evening, occasional snow showers may continue through the overnight as what’s left of the original low moves across the region. High pressure then builds in for later Sunday into Monday with dry and seasonably cool conditions.
Another double-barreled low will cross the region this weekend. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
So, how much snow are we expecting?
Cape Cod: 1″ or less South Coast: 1-2″ Southeastern MA/Central+Northern RI: 2-4″ Boston/MetroWest/Notre Shore: 3-6″ Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 4-8″ Southern/Central NH: 5-10″ with isolated amounts in excess of 12″
The amount of sleet and/or rain that mixes in will impact snowfall amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds increase. High 37-44.
Friday night: Snow developing, changing to rain South Coast and Cape Cod, mixing with some sleet and/or rain across southeastern MA and RI overnight, becoming windy. Low 27-34.
Saturday: Windy with snow, mixing with or changing to sleet and/or rain south of the Merrimack Valley, changing back to snow late in the day. High 34-41.
Saturday night: Cloudy and breezy with occasional snow showers. Low 22-29.
Sunday: Morning clouds, some afternoon clearing, breezy. High 36-43.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 40-47.
Winter has finally arrived, and it looks like it may hang around for a while.
Most of the snow overnight fell north of the Mass Pike. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
The second half of our double-barreled low pressure system will move across the region this evening and tonight, with another round of sleet, freezing rain, possibly some light snow, and plain rain near the South Coast. This round of precipitation should be light, and done shortly after midnight. A strong cold front moves through Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers. We’ll gradually clear out behind it in the afternoon, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air in, with temperatures dropping during the day. High pressure settles in Friday night, resulting in a rather chilly night, with lows dropping into the single numbers, possibly below zero in some of the colder spots, especially into southern New Hampshire. There will still be some wind around, so wind chills will drop below zero. Saturday will be a chilly day, but clouds will quickly return and thicken up as a weak disturbance moves through, possibly producing a few snow showers. Another weak system moves through on Sunday, with a few more snow or rain showers possible, then drier weather returns for Sunday night and early Monday. Clouds move back in during the day on Monday ahead of yet another storm system.
Wind chills likely will be below zero for much of the region when you wake up Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We don’t normally go beyond Monday on the Weekend Outlook, but wanted to address the next storm system currently expected to move in for Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the forecast models have shown the potential for a sizeable snowstorm around here on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the model snow maps have spread like wildfire across the internet. The thing is, right now, it’s just that – potential. The potential storm is still 5 days away, and the forecast models have been horrendous beyond about 2 or 3 days, so why should we trust the models with a 5-day forecast? The Ensembles also show the potential for a snowstorm, but a light to perhaps moderate one, not the blockbuster storm some of the operational models are showing. Yes, this winter has been fairly non-existent until the last few days, but a well-advertised pattern change has taken place. That doesn’t mean that suddenly every storm is going to be all snow (the current one isn’t). We’ll obviously have a lot more detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but for now, don’t get too concerned about the chance for a blizzard on Tuesday. Certainly you should be prepared for a storm (it is winter in New England after all), but if there’s cause for concern, we’ll let you know.
Many of the 31 members of the GFS Ensemble show only a light to moderate snowstorm Tuesday, highlighting the uncertainty with that system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Cloudy with a wintry mix of light snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain near the South Coast, ending after midnight. Low 19-26 north of the Mass Pike, 27-34 south of the Pike during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.
Friday: Clouds with some afternoon sunny breaks, windy, a few stray snow showers are possible in the morning. High 31-38 in the morning, temperatures drop through the afternoon.
Friday night: Clearing, except across the Outer Cape, breezy, and cold. Low 3-10.
Saturday: Becoming cloudy with a few flurries possible. High 19-26.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. High 34-41.
Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 15-22.
Monday: Early sun, then increasing clouds. High 32-39.
We’re in an active pattern right now, with lots of rapid-fire changes coming over the next few days.
Low pressure will cross central New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll remain quite mild in Friday morning, but some showers likely tonight. They’ll become more numerous on Friday as the low drags a strong cold front across the region during the morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will send temperatures downward fairly quickly Friday afternoon. The rain should come to an end during the evening, but enough colder air may work in that the rain could mix with or change to wet snow before ending across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. We’ll clear out late Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures start to moderate on Sunday as the high slides offshore, but clouds will also move in as a weak upper-level disturbance moves toward the area. It may produce a few showers Sunday night and early Monday, mainly across Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Another disturbance passes by late Monday and Monday night with a few more showers possible as it drags a cold front through late in the day.
Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon behind a cold front. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Cloudy and mild with some showers likely. Low 43-50 this evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.
Friday: Scattered showers, possibly mixing with wet snow late in the day north of Route 2, becoming windy and much cooler in the afternoon. High 55-62 in the morning (cooler across the NH Seacoast), temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.
Friday night: Rain or snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out late at night, breezy. Low 18-25.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 34-41.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. High 42-49.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 33-40.
Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.
As we get into Super Bowl Weekend, the weather won’t be that bad, especially compared to what could happen during early February around here.
Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes tonight, sending a warm front through, with some showers likely ahead of it. The showers should end before daybreak as the storm sends a cold front across the region, but the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold. In fact, it’s actually warmer, so with some sunshine developing on Friday, we’ll actually have a rather warm day, with some record highs possible across our area. A stronger cold front moves through late in the day, with gusty northwest winds ushering more seasonable air in. High pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and cool temperatures. It’ll remain breezy in the morning, so it may be a little on the cool side for the morning outdoor activities, but winds will diminish in the afternoon. Sunday starts off nice, but clouds will stream in ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some of the models have the precipitation from that system move into the region, possibly as far north as the Mass Pike, others barely get it to the South Coast. If it does make it this far north, temperatures could be close to freezing, so we could be dealing with a little snow or sleet as well. We are expecting most of the precipitation to stay offshore, but obviously we’ll keep an eye on things.
Some record highs could be challenged on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Showers likely, ending around midnight, breezy. Low 37-44 this evening, then temperatures rise overnight.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and mild. High 55-62.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 26-33.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy early, winds diminish in the afternoon. High 36-43.
Saturday night: Clear skies, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 19-26.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, showers possible near the South Coast late in the day. High 41-48.
Sunday night: Cloudy with a chance for showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 27-34.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, any showers ending in the morning. High 38-45.
Some rather cold air is on the way for the next couple of days, but it’s stay should be rather short.
Saturday morning will be the coldest morning we’ve had around here in several years. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
A strong cold front will cross the region late tonight, possibly accompanied by a few flurries or snow showers. Behind it, gusty northwest winds will usher some arctic air into the New England. This is likely some of the coldest air we’ve had around in several years, so make sure you are prepared for it if you have to go outside. Temperatures will likely have dropped into the teens and lower 20s by the time most of you get out of bed Friday morning, and they will continue to drop during the day despite sunshine. Temperatures will be in the single numbers by evening, and below zero for near the entire region at night. Wind chills will drop below zero during Friday afternoon, and with northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting to 40 mph at times, we’ll see wind chills in the -20 to -40 range Friday night and early Saturday. Temperatures bottom out in the -5 to -15 range Saturday morning, but it will remain breezy, so we’ll still be dealing with bitterly cold wind chills in the morning. Winds will diminish during the day on Saturday, but temperatures will only slowly rise. The good news is that high pressure will slide offshore, allowing winds to shift into the south and southwest, so temperatures will start to moderate, likely rising all through the night Saturday night, but we’ll also have some clouds starting to move in as a frontal system begins to approach from the west. By Sunday, temperatures will be above normal again, likely reaching 40 for most of us. A few showers are possible Sunday night as the frontal system moves through and another passes well to the south, then we’ll see some sunshine and mild temperatures again on Monday.
Wind chills will bottom out in the -20 to -40 range before daybreak Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a snow shower, breezy. Low 13-20.
Friday: Mostly sunny, windy and turning sharply colder, chance for a few snow showers across the Outer Cape. High 13-20 early, temperatures drop during the day.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, windy, and bitterly cold. Low -6 to -13.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in later in the day, breezy in the morning. High 11-18.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming breezy again late at night. Low 8-15 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds, windy, and milder. High 39-46.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for a few showers across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Low 27-34.
Monday: Morning clouds and possibly a few showers in southeastern Massachusetts give way to some afternoon sun, breezy. High 41-48.
Drier weather will return for a few days, but won’t last for too long.
Most of the region has received 5-10 inches of rain (not snow) over the past month. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.
High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday with some clearing and temperatures remaining on the mild side for late January. A weak front will move through on Saturday with some clouds and possibly a rain or snow shower, but for the most part, it will remain dry. The front stalls out just to the south, keeping plenty of clouds around for Saturday night and Sunday. On Sunday it will start moving northward again as a warm front, ahead of low pressure heading toward the eastern Great Lakes. That low passes across Northern New England Sunday night and Monday, producing a few rain or snow showers across our area. We’ll start to clear out behind the system later on Monday.
Temperatures will remain above to well above normal over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.
Friday night: Variably cloudy, chance for a few late-night rain or snow showers. Low 21-28.
Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 39-46.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy. High 42-49.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers. Low 25-32.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few rain or snow showers early, some clearing late in the day. High 39-46.
We’re getting into a more active weather pattern around here, and also one that is a bit more wintry.
Tonight’s storm will bring a little bit of everything to the region. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Low pressure will head into the Midwest tonight while a secondary area of low pressure develops across the northern Mid-Atlantic states and passes just south of New England tonight. Rain will overspread much of the region over the next few hours, except for central New Hampshire, where precipitation will likely start as some snow. As that secondary area of low pressure passes by to the south tonight, winds will shift into the north, allowing cooler air to settle in, and the rain/snow line to start migrating southward. The steadiest precipitation likely ends before daybreak, but the old low pressure system will move through during the day on Friday, with occasional snow showers north and west of Boston, and occasional rain showers changing to snow showers from Boston southward. The rain/snow line likely doesn’t reach the South Coast before everything winds down late Friday afternoon or evening. How much snow can we expect?
South and east of I-95: Less than 1″ MetroWest/North Shore: 1-2″ Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″ Southern/Central NH: 3-6″
This will not be a big snowmaker for much of our region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
We may see some clearing on Saturday as high pressure tries to move in, but clouds quickly return Saturday night as another system heads toward the region. This one looks to be mostly rain for Sunday night into Monday morning, but it may start as snow across southern New Hampshire, and the rain may change to snow before ending across the region Monday morning. We’ll clear out behind the system Monday afternoon, but it will be quite breezy.
Northwest winds may gust to 30-40 mph Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Rain developing across the region, except snow across central New Hampshire. Rain changes to snow as we head through the night across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Low 29-36.
Friday: Occasional snow showers north and west of Boston, with rain showers changing to snow showers from Boston southward. High 34-41 in the morning, temperatures drop during the day.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, any lingering rain or snow showers end in the evening. Low 20-27.
Saturday: Becoming partly sunny. High 30-37.
Saturday night: Clouds return. Low 11-18 across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 19-26 elsewhere.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 36-43.
Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain likely, possibly starting as snow across southern New Hampshire. Low 30-37, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.
Monday: Rain may change to snow before ending in the morning, becoming partly sunny and windy in the afternoon. High 40-47 early, temperatures drop during the day.
What seemed like a relatively simple forecast just a day or two ago suddenly is a bit more complicated for parts of the region.
Low pressure currently in the Ohio Valley will pass north and west of the region on Friday. A warm front ahead of the system will move through tonight, accompanied by some showers this evening which will become a steadier rain overnight. Temperatures will also rise behind the warm front tonight. By the time you wake up on Friday, temperatures should be in the lower to middle 50s, but won’t go up any further. A cold front will move through during the morning, and it will bring an end to the rain, but temperatures will start falling in the afternoon behind the front. That front will likely stall out once it gets offshore, keeping plenty of clouds around, especially closer to the coast. Saturday looks to be a cloudy, cooler, and drier day across the region.
Some heavy rain is possibly across the region tonight and Friday morning. Iage provided by Weathermodels.com.
Late Saturday is where the uncertainty comes into the forecast. A wave of low pressure will begin riding up the stalled out front offshore. How close it comes to the Cape and Islands varies by which model you look at, which has an impact on the forecast. Some models keep the system well offshore, with little to no impact on us. Some models bring it close enough for some rain or snow showers across the Cape and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, and some bring in steadier snow to parts of eastern Massachusetts. No matter what track it takes, gusty north to northeast winds will probably also generate some ocean-effect snow across parts of Cape Cod and possibly Plymouth County. For now, we’re leaning toward the middle ground of the model scenarios, but obviously will keep a close eye on how things progress. High pressure builds in behind the system Sunday night into Monday with dry and cool conditions.
Some snow is possible across parts of southeastern Massachusetts this weekend, depending on which model you believe. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Periods of rain, breezy. Temperatures slowly rising overnight.
Friday: Rain ending by early afternoon, remaining cloudy. High 50-57 in the morning, temperatures drop in the afternoon.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds, possibly a few breaks of sunshine. High 34-41.
Saturday night: Cloudy, chance for some snow or rain showers across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 22-29.
Sunday: Snow showers possible across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, some clearing late in the day. High 32-39.
Storm HQ 