Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 25-29, 2021

It’s coming. You know what we’re talking about. It’s that time of year. You’re not going to like it, but you’re going to have to deal with it. No, we’re not talking about the non-stop Black Friday sales ads or the constant barrage of holiday music. It’s something more insidious. That four-letter word most of you hate. It begins with the letter “S”. And it’s in this forecast.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about Thanksgiving. The high pressure area that provided us with chilly weather yesterday and today will slide offshore tonight and Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to start to move into the region. However, a strong cold front will also be approaching from the west. Thanksgiving will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening. A few showers are likely Friday morning into early afternoon before the cold front finally moves offshore. High pressure then moves in for Saturday and Sunday with the chilly weather returning along with sunshine. By Sunday afternoon though, clouds will start to stream back into the region ahead of the next storm system.

Heading out early Saturday morning? Wind chills will only be in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A Saskatchewan Screamer (it’s not an Alberta Clipper, since it originates in Saskatchewan) will dive into the Northern Plains and across the Midwest over the weekend, and by Sunday night, it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This much seems fairly certain. From here, there are a lot of things that we’re not terribly confident in, so we’ll give you our thoughts and best estimate right now, and will refine it this weekend, if need be. At this point, 1 of 3 things is likely to happen:

  1. The storm continues east-northeast, passing out to sea well to our south with minimal impact here.
  2. The storm turns more toward the northeast, bringing a period of light rain or snow here as it heads towards Atlantic Canada while strengthening.
  3. An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure captures the low, allowing it to hang around longer, and it brings a period of heavier snow and/or a wintry mix to the region, especially north and west of Boston.
Monday could be wet or white, or maybe even dry. The models aren’t sure yet and neither are we. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Depending on which forecast model you look at, any of these scenarios is possible. For now, we’re leaning towards scenario number 2. Precipitation should develop Sunday night and continue into Monday. It may start as rain for much of the region with snow north and west of Boston. Some sleet and/or freezing rain could mix in across the interior, with a change to all snow possible into Boston and points south as the system pulls away later on Monday. It’s WAY too early for any kind of estimate of accumulations, especially with the uncertainty in the forecast, but if (and that’s a big “if”) our thinking is in the ballpark, we’d be looking at the potential for a few inches north and west of Boston. There are some models predicting a very significant snowstorm, and you won’t have to look too hard on social media to find them, as all of the “weather weenies” are excited for the first potential “big” storm of the season. We prefer to deal with what we know, and not deal in hype. If this does look like it will materialize, we’ll have another blog post about it this weekend.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 22-29.

Thanksgiving: Morning sunshine, then clouds stream in. High 47-54.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Friday: Cloudy with some showers likely, mainly during the morning and early afternoon, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Sunday: Some early sun, then clouds return. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Cloudy with light snow or rain developing from southwest to northeast. Low 23-30.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or a wintry mix north and west of Boston, chance of rain, possibly mixed with a little wet snow south. High 32-39 north and west of Boston, 39-46 south of Boston.

Weekend Outlook: November 19-22, 2021

Hope you enjoyed the mild weather today, because it’ll be a distant memory by tomorrow.

Normal high temperatures in mid-November are within a degree or two of 50. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will move across the region tonight, bringing some showers with it, but it will also sweep our mild weather offshore and replace it with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November. An upper-level disturbance moves across the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower, but with high pressure building in at the surface, it will turn drier and cooler. That high keeps us dry and cool on Saturday, but clouds will start streaming in late in the day ahead of the next storm system. A warm front moves through on Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate again, but some showers or even a period of steady rain is likely Sunday night into Monday as another cold front approaches the region.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 33-40.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, but clouds may pop up during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase again late in the day. High 40-47.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, showers may develop late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. Low 42-49 in the evening, then temperatures rise a bit at night.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: November 12-15, 2021

Our recent stretch of dry weather is coming to an end and temperatures are going to turn cooler. There’s also the potential that a few spots in the area could see some of that s-word on Monday. You know which word I’m talking about. It’s definitely November.

High pressure slides offshore tonight as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. A frontal system well ahead of that low will approach the region on Friday. Showers will develop Friday morning, with a period of steady, and perhaps heavy, rain likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder as well. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will result in a mild day with many places topping 60 degrees. The front moves through in the evening, bringing an end to the rain, with skies clearing out overnight.

Most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain across parts of the region on Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Saturday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds quickly return. That low pressure system will move into southern Canada, but a disturbance rotating around it will bring in a few more showers Saturday night. Skies will clear out again behind that on Sunday, but much cooler air will start to settle in. We’re not done with that low pressure system though. Another disturbance will rotate around it Sunday night and Monday, and it will trigger another weak system that will bring in some more showers for Sunday night and Monday. With the cooler air in place, we could even see a few wet snowflakes mix in, especially across the hills from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 50 on Sunday across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, some drizzle or a few showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 40-47 this evening, then temperatures may rise a little overnight.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely through early afternoon, becoming a steady and potential heavy rain for the mid-to-late afternoon hours. High 57-64.

Friday night: Showers end during the evening, followed by clearing after midnight. Low 37-44.

Saturday: Mostly sunny through midday, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon with showers possible by late in the day. High 54-61.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers likely during the evening, then clearing after midnight. Low 32-39.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return during the afternoon. High 45-52.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing after midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. Low 33-40.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. High 44-51.

Weekend Outlook: November 5-8, 2021

We’ve got a fairly easy forecast coming up for the next several days, so let’s get right to it.

High pressure will build in and keep the region dry and cool into the weekend, with some moderation expected by the end of the weekend and start of next week as the high slides offshore. There are only two potential flies in the ointment. We’ve got a low pressure area passing south and east of the region late tonight and Friday. It may pass close enough to spread a few showers into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, but the vast majority of the region will stay dry. Whether or not there are clouds (and/or some light rain), will have a big impact on temperatures. Areas north and west of Boston should radiate tonight, with lows dropping well into the 30s, perhaps even some 20s again. Across southeastern Massachusetts, clouds and possibly rain will keep temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. If the storm is farther offshore, then the clouds likely will be too, resulting in temperatures ending up a little cooler than what this forecast shows. Another system will pass offshore late Sunday night and Monday. This system looks to be even farther offshore, so it shouldn’t be much of a concern.

Temperatures could get back to 60 by Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers across Cape Cod. Low 28-35, except 36-43 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Friday: Chance for a shower across the Cape during the morning, otherwise skies gradually become partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Low 26-33.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 47-54.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and milder. High 53-60.

Weekend Outlook: October 29-November 1, 2021

The weather will cooperate with cleanup operations from this week’s storm, but another one is lurking on the horizon. Luckily, this one won’t be as strong.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with mostly dry weather and diminishing winds. There will be plenty of cloudcover from Boston southward, as low-level moisture remains in place tonight, while areas north and west of Boston get rather chilly under clear skies. Clouds stream in on Friday ahead of the next storm system. That system will come at the region from the southwest, and not up the coast. It should pass north and west of the region on Saturday, resulting in much milder conditions. Winds may be a little gusty out of the southwest, but we’re talking about gusts of 20-30 mph, not the 75-95 mph we saw Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main issue with this storm will be rainfall. Rain will develop early Saturday morning, and continue for much of the day. The rain will be heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, but should taper and end by daybreak Sunday. We’ll see some clearing on Sunday, but as an upper-level disturbance crosses the Northeast, clouds will return, and a few pop-up showers are possible. High pressure then builds in for Monday with dry and mild conditions.

Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected this weekend. Some models show even heavier amounts are possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy north and west of Boston, partly to mostly cloudy south of Boston. Low 33-40 north and west of Boston, 41-48 south.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 49-56.

Friday night: Cloudy with rain developing, mainly after midnight. Low 42-49.

Saturday: Breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. A rumble of thunder is possible, especially across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Rain gradually tapers off and ends. Low 48-55.

Sunday: Becoming partly sunny, chance for a shower or two during the afternoon. High 58-65.

Sunday night: Clearing. Low 43-50.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 57-64.

Weekend Outlook: October 22-25, 2021

It may be sunny and warm this afternoon, changes are coming, so enjoy it while you can.

Low pressure moving into southeastern Canada will send a cold front our way tonight. Ahead of it, a few showers are possible late tonight and early Friday, but the bulk of the rain with the system should stay well to our north and west. The cold front moves through on Friday, and although it will still be on the mild side, colder air will start to move in behind the front. High pressure settles in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions. Meanwhile, that cold front will be stalled out just south of New England, so even though most of us will be dry, we’ll still have some clouds around, especially the farther south you go. Could there be a shower or two across the Islands? Maybe, but it’s not a sure thing. We’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area passing north of the region. This will also generate some clouds as well, and possibly a pop-up shower or two each afternoon. Again, nothing to cancel plans over, but don’t be shocked if you see a few raindrops.

Temperatures at midday Saturday will be 10-18 degrees cooler compared to midday Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is where things become less certain. An area of low pressure moving out of the Ohio Valley will ride eastward along our stalled out front. Will it pass close enough to spread some rain into the region or will the high pressure area push it far enough to the south that it doesn’t have any impact? The forecast models have been all over the place with this idea, but for now, we’re leaning toward the drier scenario, but will put the chance of showers in the forecast just to cover ourselves. The second half of next week is looking quite wet at this point, but we’ll worry about that Monday morning with our Weekly Outlook.

The models don’t agree on whether Monday will be wet or dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers after midnight. Low 54-61.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, any showers end early. High 66-73.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cooler, slight chance for a shower. High 56-63.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 37-44.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds return in the afternoon. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers, especially south of Boston. Low 39-46.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly south of Boston. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: October 15-18, 2021

Fall is the season of change, and changes are coming this weekend in terms of the weather.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with another warm day expected under partly sunny skies. However, a strong cold front is marching eastward, and it will arrive on Saturday. Ahead of it, a warm front will move through Friday night, perhaps accompanied by a few showers. Saturday will be breezy and warm, but we’ll have plenty of clouds, with showers developing by late afternoon. Showers and some thunderstorms are likely through the evening, but should end before daybreak Sunday as the cold front finally crosses the region. Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions are likely for Sunday and Monday. While it will feel almost chilly at times, these temperatures will be right around normal for mid-October. Both Sunday and Monday will feature some sunshine, but with an upper-level disturbance moving through, we’ll have clouds developing, and just a slight chance for a shower each afternoon.

Temperatures at midday Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than at midday Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 68-75, possibly a little cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers. Low 57-64.

Saturday: A few sunny breaks, mainly early, but generally cloudy and breezy with showers possible late in the day. High 69-76.

Saturday night: Scattered showers, possibly some thunder as well. Low 49-56.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 60-67.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower. High 54-61.

Weekend Outlook: October 8-11, 2021

Columbus Day Weekend has arrived, but it still won’t feel quite like fall just yet for the entire weekend.

High pressure remains in control through the 1st part of Friday with dry and mild conditions, but a backdoor cold front will drop down the coast, bringing cooler weather in for Friday night and Saturday. There may even be some drizzle or a few showers around at times too. High pressure builds back in for Sunday, but we’ll have to keep an eye on low pressure south of New England. There is still some question as to whether the rainfall from this system makes it into our area Sunday night and Monday. We’ll include the chance for showers in the forecast for now, but the most likely spot for any rain will be along the South Coast.

Most of the models aren’t terribly enthusiastic about the rain chances for Sunday night and Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Friday: Sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds. High 66-73.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle or a few showers. Low 47-54.

Saturday: Clouds and a few sunny breaks, some spotty drizzle or a shower are still possible. High 59-66.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds. High 61-68.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 50-57.

Monday: More clouds than sun, showers are possible again, mainly near the South Coast. High 66-73.

Weekend Outlook: October 1-4, 2021

Most of the upcoming weekend should be pretty good weatherwise, but probably not all of it.

An upper-level low pressure area will pull away tonight, but a few showers are still possible through the first part of the night, mainly near the coastline. High pressure builds in for Friday into Saturday with drier conditions. While Friday should feature a decent amount of sunshine, Saturday will likely have more clouds as a weak system passes by to the north. Could it produce a few showers? Maybe, but mainly in southern New Hampshire.

Friday morning will be on the chilly side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Sunday is when things get really tricky. A low pressure area will be slowly moving in from the west, sending a warm front toward the region. The question is, how far north does the warm front get before stalling out? This will have a large impact on temperatures. Our best estimate at this point is that it will at least get up to the Mass Pike, but beyond that, we’re not sure. South of the warm front, it will be warm and humid, with temperatures likely getting into the 70s. North of the front it may stay in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The next question is – when does the rain move in? Right now, it looks like we may have some showers late Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the warm front, but that isn’t set in stone at this point. Late Sunday night into Monday do look wetter, but again, this is far from a lock.

Sunday’s temperatures will be determined by how far north the warm front gets. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible this evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 40-47.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 60-67.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, slight chance for a sprinkle across southern New Hampshire. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower, mainly across southern New Hampshire. Low 50-57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few late-day showers. High 59-66 north of the Mass Pike, 67-74 south of the Pike.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 53-60.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 62-69.

Weekend Outlook: September 24-27, 2021

Some rain is on the way, but much of the weekend looks decent weatherwise.

A slow-moving cold front will make its way across the region tonight and Friday, bringing plenty of clouds in, with some rain likely, mainly on Friday. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. We’re not expecting a widespread heavy rain like we had at times for most of the summer, but don’t expect to see much, if any, sunshine on Friday. The front pushes offshore Friday night, but showers may linger into Saturday morning across eastern Massachusetts. While there may be some sunshine developing, especially well west of Boston, during Saturday afternoon, clouds will linger in the east. Another wave of low pressure will ride up that front offshore, but will likely pass close enough to bring some rain back in for Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is a relatively new development in the models, but it shows up on several models, so we’re inclined to go with it. We should start to clear out again on Sunday, but an upper-level feature will be moving across the region, and it may kick off another shower or two during the afternoon. High pressure builds in for Sunday night and Monday with drier conditions.

Most of the heavy rain will be confined to western New England. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Sam has developed over 1700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is sat least 5 days away from potentially threatening any land areas, but Sam will definitely be a storm to watch. Most of the models develop Sam into a powerful hurricane over the weekend and early next week. Sam should continue on a west-northwest track across the Atlantic through the weekend. Beyond that? It’s still way too early to speculate on where Sam may go.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Sam. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 64-71.

Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 71-78.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending from west to east. Low 55-62, a little milder across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers, mainly in eastern Massachusetts. High 68-75.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. Low 53-60.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early, then becoming partly sunny with a chance for a late-day shower. High 68-75.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.