Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: January 30- February 5, 2017

So, who’s ready for more winter weather?

That’s what we thought. Well, you’re out of luck, because not only is it going to turn colder this week, it’s going to snow too! Control your enthusiasm everyone – it’s not going to snow a lot.

The week starts off with a weak storm system passing to our south today. It may produce some snow showers along the South Coast and across the Cape and the Islands, with little accumulation expected. For the rest of us, it’ll just be a cloudy day. It’ll clear out tonight, and turn colder, but clouds quickly come back Tuesday morning as an Alberta Clipper (more likely a Saskatchewan Screamer and maybe even a Manitoba Mover) quickly heads towards the region. Some light snow will develop a little after dinner time, and continue overnight, likely changing to rain south of Boston. It all winds down before midday on Wednesday, with most of us getting an inch or two. Not a big deal, right? A few more snow showers are possible that afternoon as an upper-level disturbance moves through, but then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week and into the weekend with sunshine along with breezy and colder conditions. As we get to later Sunday (around the time the Patriots should be hoisting Lombardi Trophy #5) some more snow is possible as the next storm system starts to approach the region. That one could bring us some more snow into Monday, but we’ll worry about that one later in the week.

snku_acc-us_ne

Most of us will only see an inch or two (maybe three) from the system Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks at times. High 31-38.

Monday night: Clearing skies. Low 12-19.

Tuesday: Clouds return by midday, snow developing towards evening.High 26-33.

Tuesday night: Light snow likely, changing to rain south of Boston. Low 22-29 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Rain changes back to snow in the morning, ending around midday. Some sunny breaks may develop late in the day. Becoming breezy. High 34-41.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 29-36.

Friday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. High 25-32.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 24-31.

Sunday: Becoming cloudy, chance of snow late in the day. High 27-34.

Super Bowl Forecast: Expect the roof to be closed with some showers possible, and outdoor temperatures around 70 at game time. Inside? Patriots 34 Falcons 24

patriots-painting

Couldn’t have said it better myself. Image provided by NESN.com

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook January 23-29, 2017

Another week has arrived but just like last week, we’re starting off with a messy storm. Unlike last week, this one should go over to rain in most spots, and the rain could be quite heavy as we get into Monday night and early Tuesday.

The storm system that brought all the severe weather to the Deep South and the Southeast over the past few days will move into the Appalachians today while a secondary low pressure area starts to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This secondary low will quickly become the dominant storm as it intensifies while moving north-northeastward, passing south and east of Cape Cod on Tuesday. This will be mainly a rain storm from Boston southward, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain is likely north and west of Boston for a while on Monday. Eventually, warmer air moves in by early Tuesday morning, changing everything over to plain rain. The rain may be heavy early Tuesday, and as a result, Flood Watches have been posted for parts of Southern New England. Some areas could see 2-3 inches of rain, possibly even more than that. In addition, we’re looking at strong winds with this storm, especially close to the coastline. High Wind Warnings are up, with some gusts of 50-60 mph or more possible, especially across Cape Cod.

wpc_total_precip_boston_8

A lot of rain is expected between now and Wednesday morning. This will help put a dent in the drought. Image provided by WeatherBell,.

 

Once this system moves by, things dry out a bit on Wednesday, but another cold front brings in more showers on Thursday. After that, high pressure builds in for the end of the week and the weekend, with more seasonable (read: colder) conditions settling in.

snku_acc-us_ne

The heaviest snow with the current storm will stay well to our north and west, and mainly at the higher elevations. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with some occasional rain or snow showers, drizzle, and maybe a little sleet, all becoming a steadier rain (light snow well north and west of Boston) by late in the day. High 31-38.

Monday night: Windy with any remaining wintry mix becoming rain across the region. Rain may be heavy at times, mainly across eastern Massachusetts, and especially south of Boston and across Cape Cod. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Rain tapers off to showers and winds gradually diminish across the region. High 34-41 north and west of Boston, 42-49 south and east, with some spots across Cape Cod possibly breaking into the 50s.

Tuesday night: Showers gradually ending from west to east. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High 40-47.

Thursday:Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with scattered showers, mainly early in the day. High 44-51.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 34-41.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 31-38.

Standard
Heavy Rain/Snow, Weekly Outlook

Wintry Mess Tonight and Wednesday?

Another storm system is set to move into the region later today and into Wednesday. While this one will produce a wintry mess across parts of the area, for the majority of us, it won’t be a big deal.

namussfcwbg

Current surface map as of 10am EST Tuesday. Image provided by NOAA.

 

A low pressure system is currently moving into Michigan. This is the same system that brought heavy snow to the central and southern Rockies and a significant ice storm to the central and southern Plains and parts of the Mississippi valley over the past few days. This storm will head towards the eastern Great Lakes this evening and start to weaken, while at the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop south of New England.

12z-nam

NAM Model forecast for the next 48 hours across the Northeast. This model is closest to our thinking for this storm. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Along and south of the Mass Pike, this is mainly a rain storm. Rain will develop around dinner time this evening, might be heavy overnight, and will taper off to showers or drizzle Wednesday morning, but likely doesn’t end until Wednesday evening. For Western and Central New England, we have bigger issues.

zr_acc-us_ne

Freezing rain forecast through Thursday morning across the Northeast, Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Across the Berkshires, Catskills, and Adirondacks (and possibly the higher elevations of the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills), we’re looking at freezing rain, possibly a lot of it. Temperatures aloft will warm above freezing, but a thin layer of colder air will remain just above the surface. Since that layer is the ground layer in the hills, it will fall as freezing rain. Driving along I-90 through the Berkshires and also west of Albany out to about Utica could be very slick later today into early Wednesday. As the secondary storm takes over early Wednesday, colder air will move back in, changing the freezing rain over to snow, with a little accumulation possible.

raipzrsn

This graphic shows the difference in how you get snow vs sleet vs freezing rain. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Meanwhile, we’re looking at some snow across portions of central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire and into southwestern Maine. In areas that stay all snow, mainly across central New Hampshire and Vermont, we could see as much as 4-8 inches fall by the time the storm winds down late Saturday. The tricky forecast is from coastal Maine and New Hampshire into southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. In these areas, precipitation likely starts as snow this evening, but a change to sleet and eventually rain should take place overnight tonight or Wednesday morning, with a change back to snow possible late Wednesday as the system starts to wind down. How long that change takes will have a big effect on how much snow accumulates. Right now, it looks like we could see as much as 3-5″ near Manchester, NH, dropping down to 2-4″ around Nashua, and maybe an inch or less across the Merrimack Valley and the Seacoast, including Lowell, Lawrence, and Portsmouth. As you can see, with such a sharp gradient between several inches and virtually nothing, only a slight shift in the forecast can have a big difference in what actually falls across these areas.

snku_acc-us_ne-1

Snowfall forecast through Thursday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

The good news is that there isn’t much colder air following this storm. Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal for much of the remainder of the week, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. Contrast that with Alaska, where low temperatures for the next several mornings will range from 25 to 55 below zero across much of the state.

gfs_t2min_alaska_5

Brutally cold air has settled into Alaska and will remain in place for much of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook January 16-22, 2017

We’ve got good news and bad news in this week’s outlook. The good news is that the majority if the next 7 days will feature some pretty nice mid-winter conditions. The bad news is that late Tuesday and Wednesday might be rather nasty in parts of the region.

The week starts off with high pressure keeping us dry on Monday. By Tuesday, low pressure will start to head towards the Great Lakes. This is the same system that produced a severe ice storm across the Plains this past weekend. As this storm moves into the Great Lakes, a secondary storm will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will complicate the forecast considerably, as it will keep cold air in place at the surface, while warmer air tries to move in aloft. The result will be quite a mess, especially across the interior. From Boston southward, this is mainly a rain storm, with some snow or sleet right at the start late Tuesday. North and west of Boston, it’s a different story. We’ll likely start as some snow, but a changeover to sleet and freezing rain seems likely at some point Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This leads us to a couple of questions. First, when does that change take place, because that will determine how much snow and how much freezing rain we’re getting. Secondly, do temperatures ever get above freezing to allow everything to change over to plain rain? We’ll likely devote another blog post to this later Monday or Tuesday as the threat becomes a little clearer. Depending on how quickly the storm pulls away, precipitation may linger into early Thursday,  but high pressure starts to build in later that day, and remains in control right through the weekend.

refcmp_ptype-us_ne

The roads might be in rough shape Tuesday evening north and west of Boston with a wintry mix possible. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, but some high clouds will start to move in late in the day. High 34-41.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Tuesday: Cloudy, showers developing in the afternoon south of Boston, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain north and west. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Wintry mix continues outside of 495, precipitation changes to all rain inside of 495. Low 28-35 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Precipitation eventually changes to all rain in most areas, though it could remain a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central New Hampshire. Everything tapers off and ends in the evening, possibly changing back to wet snow in many areas before doing so. High 33-40 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 40-47 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Thursday: Breezy with rain or snow showers possibly lingering in eastern areas during the morning, some sunny breaks may start to develop in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Foxborough Forecast: Skies should be mostly clear Sunday evening with light winds, and temperatures starting in the lower 30s, dropping into the upper 20s around the time the Lamar Hunt trophy gets handed to Mr. Kraft for the 8th time. Patriots 27 Steelers 24

APTOPIX AFC Championship Football

Hopefully we’ll see a similar picture taken Sunday evening. Image provided by Patriots.com

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: January 9-15, 2016

We got the snow, now we’ve got the cold. As many of you are reading this, temperatures are near or below zero, thanks to arctic air and fresh snow cover. Don’t worry, it won’t last long. In fact, for a portion of the upcoming week, temperatures will actually be above normal. Combine mild temperatures with rainfall and the snow that’s on the ground won’t last that long.

The week starts off with high pressure giving us a frigid day on Monday. Many places may not reach 20 degrees in the afternoon. Clouds will stream in late in the day ahead of the next storm system.That storm will pass well to our north and west by midweek, and while that means it will be mostly rain, it won’t be all rain. As the moisture moves in on Tuesday, it will still be fairly cold, so it will likely start as some snow Tuesday afternoon. The warmer air will move in aloft first, which means that we’ll go over the freezing rain or sleet for a while Tuesday evening and night, and eventually plain rain by early Wednesday. The rain will taper off and end later on Wednesday, but we’ll actually stay mild, as another storm rides along a front towards the Great Lakes. That system passes to our north and west later Thursday and early Friday, with plenty of clouds and a few showers likely. It will be quite mild though. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if some places made a run at 60 degrees either Thursday or Friday. A cold front moves through on Friday, ushering colder air back into the region. High pressure builds in for Saturday with another cold day expected. Another weak system passes by to the south for Saturday night and Sunday, which may spread in some snow showers across southern areas. For now, it doesn’t look like a big deal, but we’ll keep an eye on it for you, because we know that a lot of you are interested in the forecast for Saturday night (more on that at the bottom).

hires_wchill_boston_13

Wind chills will be below zero when you head out the door this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Sunny and frigid, clouds start to filter in late in the day. High 15-22.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, quickly changing to rain from Boston southward. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Snow changes to freezing rain and eventually plain across north and west of Boston, showers likely elsewhere.  Low 30-37 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: Showers taper off and end. A few sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 44-51.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, breezy and mild, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, much colder, some light snow is possible at night. High 28-35.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with some light snow or snow showers possible. High 30-37.

09000d5d82651450_video_cp

While snowplows shouldn’t be needed at Gillette Stadium Saturday evening, there is a chance that some snow could fall. That’s good news for the Pats. For the Texans? Not so much. Image provided by NFL.com

Foxborough Forecast:

Saturday evening at Gillette Stadium will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with temperatures starting in the middle 20s, and dropping into the lower 20s by the end of the game. There is a chance for some light snow, but it’s more likely that there won’t be any at this point. Patriots 31 Texans 10

Standard
Heavy Rain/Snow, Winter Weather

“Great White Plague” Takes Aim on Southeast and New England

A developing storm system will bring heavy snow to parts of the Southeast and New England this weekend, while the West Coast braces for a lot of much-needed rainfall.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_fh6-192

A parade of storms will assault the West Coast this week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

We’ll start on the West Coast, where a series of storm systems will bring plenty of rain to drought-stricken California. While this will not alleviate the drought that has been ongoing for years, it will help to put a big dent into it. The first of the storm systems will move in tonight, and by the time the last one moves through next Friday, rainfall totals of 5-10 inches will be widespread across much of central and Northern California, with many locations, especially along the coast and western slopes of mountains receiving 10-20 inches or more.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_norcal_33

Snowfall totals of 6-12 feet are possible across the Sierra Nevada over the next week. Yes, we said feet, not inches. Image provided by WeatherBell.

At the higher elevations, especially in the Sierra Nevada, incredible amounts of snow are expected. The snowpack, which much of the region depends on for water in the summer as it melts, is already above normal, and over the next week, some locations might see 6-12 FEET of new snow from these storm systems.

snku_acc-us_ma

GFS model forecast for snow across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states through Sunday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Back in the East, a storm system is riding along a stalled out front across the Southeast, producing some snow across parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. As this system draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, and runs into an arctic airmass already settling into the region, it will produce heavy snow in places that normally don’t see a lot of snow, such as Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Virginia Tidewater area. In these places, even a dusting of snow can cause traffic nightmares, so heavy snow can bring these areas to a standstill, which is why one friend of the blog in the Raleigh area refers to it as “The Great White Plague”.

The heaviest snow from this system is expected across the Appalachians, as you’d expect, and into the Virginia Tidewater area, as the storm gathers strength while moving into the Atlantic. Of course, the 6-12 inches expected across much of North Carolina will cause its own problems, but luckily, the bulk of the snow will fall tonight and Saturday, minimizing the travel problems.

Once this storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast it will head northeastward, passing a couple of hundred miles south and east of Cape Cod. Normally, this would mean just a little bit of light snow for parts of Southern New England, and for the most part, that’s what we’re expecting. However, for southeastern New England, mainly south and east of I-95, it’ll be a different story from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

There are a couple of factors that will enhance snowfall totals across this region. First, with northeasterly winds blowing off the Atlantic, we’ll get some ocean-effect snowfall. This is similar to the lake-effect snow that you often see near the Great Lakes. While we’re not going to get buried like Buffalo does, it will add a bit more snow than we’d normally see with a storm like this. Second, it’s going to be cold out. Now, this might seem like an obvious statement because it’s winter and it’s always cold. What we mean is that temperatures will only be in the upper teens to middle 20s. This means that it will be more of a fluffy snow, which will pile up quicker than a much wetter snow. We already saw this with the light snow that fell earlier this morning.

The snow should start to develop across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts Saturday morning, and will quickly spread inland. The snow should spread as far inland as Worcester and southern New Hampshire, but it will quickly retreat eastward again, ending in most places during the evening. The exception is Cape Cod and parts of Plymouth County, where northerly winds behind the storm may keep the ocean-effect snow going into the early hours of Sunday morning.

n-east_nam218_sfc_accum-snow-plots_72hr

NAM Model forecast for snowfall through Sunday evening. Image provided by Earl Barker’s Weather Models.

The NAM model is probably the closest to what we are thinking for snowfall. As you can see from the map above, we’re not expecting more than an inch or two from southern New Hampshire into Central Massachusetts. Points north and west of Boston and Providence, including the Merrimack Valley, will likely see 2-5 inches. Along and south of Interstate 95, including the southern and eastern suburbs of Providence and Boston, we’re thinking 6-10 inches, with the best chance for more than 10 inches of snow across parts of Plymouth County and Cape Cod, where the ocean enhancement will play a big role.

Behind the system, with fresh snow cover, temperatures will get even colder. Monday morning, temperatures will be in the single numbers across much of the region, with some sub-zero readings likely. The next storm moves in later on Tuesday, and although it will start as some snow or a wintry mix, milder air will move in, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook January 2-8, 2017

We’ve flipped the calendar and are ready to start fresh in 2017. Of course, some things never change, like us entertaining and informing you about the upcoming weather. That’s the reason you’re here, right? So, let’s get right to it.

The two things we’re mainly looking at this week are a storm system and an arctic airmass. Since they both won’t be here at the same time, we’re not looking at a snowstorm for the middle of the week. (The end of the week could be a different story. More on that in a moment.) High pressure slides offshore today, and a weak system moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Right now, it looks like it may stall too far south to have much, if any, impact around here, but a few showers are possible, with some freezing drizzle well inland. A strong system moves through later on Tuesday. This should bring us some rainfall for a good chunk of Tuesday and Tuesday night. Breezy and colder conditions follow for Wednesday and Thursday, with a few snow showers not out of the question on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday, then a weak system moves in Thursday night and early Friday, with some light snow possible. This will be more of a nuisance than anything else, if it even materializes. High pressure returns on Saturday, then we get to Sunday.

sfct_anom-conus

Tuesday is looking awfully mild east of the Mississippi River. Across the Plains and Northern Rockies? Not so much. Temperatures could be up to 50 degrees below normal there. That’s cold. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Sunday *could* be interesting. Notice that we said “could”, because at this point, it’s 7 days away, and there are plenty of conflicting signals in the models. One model says that high pressure will build in, with sunshine and cold temperatures. One model says that there will be a system passing offshore, with some light snow possible along the coast. One model says we’ll have a classic East Coast snowstorm, impacting all the major cities from Boston to Washington. So as, you can see, we’ve got something to keep an eye on this week. As you’ll see below, our forecast for now is going to be very vague because, as we already said, there’s a lot of uncertainty, and its way too early to make any kind of call. As the week goes on, if it is looking like something is up, we’ll be sure to let you know.

ndfd_snow_norcal_12

If you’re really looking for heavy snow, might we suggest a ski trip to the Sierra Nevada? Some places could get in excess of 2-3 feet by midweek. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 36-43.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers or some freezing drizzle possible. Low 29-36 in the evening, then temperatures may rise a bit at night.

Tuesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with showers likely, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Breezy with rain likely, heavy at times, tapering off towards daybreak. Temperatures may rise into the 50s across southeastern Massachusetts during the evening, but will drop everywhere after midnight, settling to a morning low of 33-40.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers or some light snow, mainly late in the day and at night. High 28-35.

Friday: More clouds than sun, chance for some light snow or snow showers, especially early in the day. High 27-34.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High 23-30.

Standard