Month: May 2021

Weekly Outlook: May 31 – June 6, 2021

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After an utterly craptastic weekend, things will improve this week. That doesn’t mean it’ll be sunny and warm the entire time (certainly not at night), but it’ll be a lot better than that past few days.

The improvement starts today as low pressure pulls away from the region. Any lingering showers end this morning, then we start to see some clearing this afternoon. It also should start to turn milder today (because during late May it really couldn’t be too much cooler than the past few days). As we flip the calendar to June on Tuesday, high pressure builds in with drier and more seasonable conditions. That will certainly be a welcome change from the past few days.

Much of the region received 2-4 inches of rain over the weekend. Image provided by NOAA.

As we get to the latter half of the week, another cold front will approach, with some showers and possibly thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday. Neither day should be a washout, and it won’t be anywhere near as chilly as the past few days were, but neither day is looking like a beach day. As we get into next weekend we will have some beach days, as it will really start to feel like summer. A Bermuda high will set up offshore, pumping warm and humid air into the region. Temperatures should get well into the 80s in most spots, with some lower 90s possible, especially on Sunday. Longer-range forecasts show the potential for the hot and humid air to remain in place for much of next week as well. Yes, it might finally be time to put away the sweatshirts for the summer.

At least one model is showing the potential for hot weather for much of next week. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks develop in the afternoon. High 56-63.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 72-79.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 75-82, coolest on the South Coast.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, breezy, humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 73-80, coolest on the South Coast.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and humid with more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 74-81, coolest on the South Coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-87, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, becoming humid. High 83-90, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook: May 28-31, 2021

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Earlier this week we had said that we were being optimistic that the weekend would turn out mostly dry. Yeah, turns out that probably isn’t going to work out.

While high pressure is providing us with a terrific day today, it’s not going to last. Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and ride along a stalled out frontal boundary to our south. That will spread clouds in late tonight, with a cloudy and rather cool day expected on Friday. Rain will develop Friday afternoon, and become heavy Friday night, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Rain will continue off and on Saturday, finally tapering off later in the day. With plenty of clouds and rain, temperatures on Saturday will be quite chilly for late May, with most places staying in the 50s.

Temperatures will be about 20 degrees below normal on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Clouds remain in place Saturday night, then another system moves in later Sunday into at least midday Monday. The first half of Sunday may not be that bad north of the Mass Pike, though still on the chilly side, and Memorial Day afternoon may not be a complete washout. But overall, on a scale of 1 to 10, we’d rate the Memorial Day weekend a 3 at this point. If there’s a bright side to this, after a fairly long dry spell, we’re going to get quite a bit of rain over the next few days, which will not only be good for your lawn and garden, but will wash most of the pollen out of the air (and off your cars). Many of the models may be overdoing the precipitation totals, but a solid 1-2 inches wouldn’t surprise us, especially south of the Mass Pike.

A solid 1-2 inches of rain (or more) is expected this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

(Editor’s note: Per a request, we’re going to add a beach and boating forecast to the daytime portions of the Weekend Outlook through Labor Day Weekend)

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 60-67. Offshore: East winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, becoming southeast late in the day, especially for the North Shore. Seas 2-4 feet, visibility lower to 1-3 miles in late-day showers. Water temperatures range from the low 50s off the North Shore to the upper 50s south of the Cape and Islands.

Friday night: Showers becoming a steady rain overnight, breezy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Showers taper off and end by early afternoon, windy, and chilly. High 48-55. Offshore: Northeast winds 15-25 knots, gusts to 40 knots, especially near Cape Cod. Seas 4-7 feet, visibility under 1 mile in rain.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, showers may redevelop along the South Coast toward daybreak. Low 42-49.

Sunday: A few breaks of sun across southern New Hampshire early, otherwise cloudy with showers spreading across the region from south to north. High 51-58. Offshore: Northeast winds 15-20 knots, gusts to 30 knots. Seas 4-8 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Sunday night: Periods of rain and showers. Low 43-50.

Memorial Day: Cloudy with rain tapering off and ending by early afternoon. High 57-64. Offshore: North to northeast winds 10-15 knots, diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Weekly Outlook: May 24-31, 2021

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Temperatures will be riding the rollercoaster this week, but in general, we’ll be on the dry and cool side much of the time.

High pressure builds in today with temperatures that are not only significantly cooler than what we had over the weekend, but below normal for late May. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 60s to lower 70s today, with the coolest readings along the coast, thanks to a seabreeze off the still-cool Atlantic. After a chilly night tonight, temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and winds become southwesterly.

Water temperatures are still in the 50s to lower 60s across the area, Images provided by Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab.

Low pressure will head into southeastern Canada on Wednesday, dragging a warm front across the region early in the day. This will result in a return of heat and humidity. A few showers or storms could accompany the warm front, but the temperatures will be the big story, as most of us will get well into the 80s once again, with lower (perhaps middle) 90s possible. The heat won’t last long though, as a cold front will swing through the region Wednesday evening or night, with some showers and thunderstorms likely ahead of it.

Wednesday is looking like another hot day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in behind the front on Thursday with drier and cooler conditions. This brings us to the Memorial Day Weekend. There is still some uncertainty among the models as to what we can expect next weekend. The models are in decent agreement that we’ll have high pressure centered over southeastern Canada while low pressure moves out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic states before spending much of the weekend south of New England while only slowly drifting eastward. They mostly agree that this means we’ll be on the cool side from Friday into Monday, with temperatures mainly below normal. What they don’t agree on is exactly where the low pressure system tracks, and whether it will send any precipitation our way (which also has an impact on the temperature forecast). For now, we’re going to lean on the dry side and be optimistic, but there is a chance that the long weekend could feel more like mid-Spring than the “traditional start of summer.” We should have a better handle on it for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

There’s a pretty wide range in the model temperature forecasts for next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 65-72, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 73-80, cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Variably cloudy, just a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy, and humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day and at night. High 84-91, cooler along the South Coast.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Memorial Day: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Weekend Outlook: May 21-24, 2021

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Our early taste of summer continues through the weekend, but changes are on the way.

High pressure remains in control on Friday with partial sunshine and warm temperatures. We’ll only have partial sunshine as some smoke from wildfires in Canada will drift across the region at times, thanks to our northwesterly flow aloft. A series of weak disturbances will move along that flow over the next couple of days, bringing us some additional clouds and possibly a few showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day Saturday. Not everyone will get one, so don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans, but keep an eye on the sky (or the radar) if you will be outside.

Sunday could be a very warm day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Sunday looks like it’ll be a warm and somewhat humid day (by May standards), but a backdoor cold front will be approaching the region. These fronts usually don’t produce a lot of precipitation, but with the airmass we’ll have in place and another disturbance dropping down, we’ll likely see showers and thunderstorms develop. There will likely be more of them than on Saturday, but the day shouldn’t be a washout. A few of the storms that do form could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours, so again, if you’ve got outside plans, be aware of what’s going on. High pressure builds back in on Monday with much cooler conditions.

Dewpoints could get into the lower to middle 60s on Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower, mainly well north of Boston. Low 47-54.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, a few showers are possible. Low 55-62.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, some showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. High 80-87, cooler along the coast, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod..

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 65-72.

A low pressure area near Bermuda could become a subtropical storm in the next few days. Loop provided by NOAA.

Finally, it’s getting to that time of year – hurricane season. The season officially begins on June 1, and we’ll have a special post dedicated to the start of the season, including statistics about how here in New England we are significantly overdue for a storm. However, there is an area of low pressure northeast of Bermuda that the National Hurricane Center has its eyes on right now. It’s not tropical, but they think it could become subtropical in the next day or two as it heads southwestward toward Bermuda. We’re not sure if it will become subtropical or not, but then again, that’s not our call. They’ll likely waste the first name of the season (Ana) on the storm, which will make seven years in a row that we get a “named” storm before the official start of hurricane season. Over the weekend it will turn back toward the northeast and head out into the open Atlantic. If it does get named, we’ll have a special post on it. Also, NOAA issued their hurricane outlook today. To the surprise of nobody, NOAA is expecting another above normal hurricane season with 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Weekly Outlook: May 17-23, 2021

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It looks like it’s finally time to put away the winter gear and break out the summer gear, if you haven’t already. We’ve got some warm weather on the way for much of the upcoming week.

High pressure will be in control for the next several days. However, we’ll also have some weak upper-level disturbances moving across the region. What that means is that much like the past few days, we’ll start out with sunshine in the morning, then clouds develop, followed by some showers and thunderstorms, and once the sun sets, everything winds down and skies clear out. That’s what will happen today and to a lesser extent on Tuesday as well. High pressure becomes a little more dominant on Wednesday with sunshine and warmer weather. Temperatures may top 80 on Wednesday away from the coast.

At least one model thinks that Wednesday could be quite toasty. We’re not convinced it will be this warm, but it’s possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday is when we may see some changes start to take place. It still looks like a sunny and warm day well inland, but closer to the coast, a backdoor cold front may move in, ushering cooler air in to eastern parts of the region during the afternoon. That cooler air may hang around for Friday and Saturday as a disturbance moves across the region with more clouds and possibly some showers. Some of the models try to bring the warm air right back in on Friday and/or Saturday, but as we’ve learned the hard way over and over again, extended stretches of warm weather are hard to come by during Spring here in eastern New England. The ocean is still quite cool, and has a big impact on temperatures at this time of year. With this in mind, we’re going to lean cooler than some of the models (and nearly all of the talking heads on TV). Sunday should be warmer again as winds shift into the west ahead of a cold front, which may produce showers and thunderstorms.

Ocean temperatures are still mainly in the 50s around the region. Image provided by the Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab.

Monday: Sunny to start, then clouds develop and some showers and thunderstorms pop-up. High 70-77, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Early sun, then some clouds move in, a shower is possible late in the day. High 77-84, but temperatures may drop into the upper 50s or 60s during the afternoon, especially along the coast.

Friday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 69-76, coolest along the coast.

Saturday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 68-75.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the day. High 74-81.

Weekend Outlook: May 14-17, 2021

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Typical springtime weather is expected right through the weekend. Some showers are possible each afternoon, but don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans.

Today’s satellite loop will look pretty similar to each of the next few days. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

The weather pattern for the next several days will be fairly simple. At the surface, high pressure to the south will result in seasonably mild conditions through the weekend and into Monday. Temperatures have been on the cool side lately, so even though we’ll only be right around or a little above normal for the next few days, it will feel rather nice. While we’ve got high pressure at the surface, we’ll have a series of weak disturbances moving through aloft. So, each day will likely follow the same pattern – sunshine in the morning, clouds start to develop by late morning, and some widely scattered showers pop-up each afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder are even possible. Most of these showers will be light, and not everyone will see them. The best chance for them looks to be Sunday afternoon, but again, don’t wipe out any outdoor plans, as most of us will still enjoy a rather nice day.

Temperatures have been below normal across the Northeast thus far in May. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Friday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds, slight chance for a late-day shower. High 68-75.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon or evening shower. High 69-76.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 46-53.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a few showers possible during the afternoon. High 68-75.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 67-74.

Weekly Outlook: May 10-16, 2021

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We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up for the first time in a while.

Low pressure pulls away from the region this morning, with rain coming to an end. We’ll see some clearing this afternoon, but an upper-level low pressure area will move through on Tuesday with more clouds and possibly a shower or two. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with generally dry conditions and a warming trend.

Much of the region remains dry, and we’re not expecting much rainfall this week. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The end of the week is a little uncertain at the moment, but it doesn’t look that bad. Another upper-level low will move into the Northeast, so we’ll have more cloudcover at times, with a few showers possible each afternoon. Most of these won’t be that heavy, and they shouldn’t be that widespread, so overall, the weekend shouldn’t be that bad. Temperatures should be on the mild side, likely near to above normal for mid-May.

Some mild weather could be on the way for next weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Showers end early, some afternoon sunny breaks. High 56-63.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a shower or two, breezy. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 56-63.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 62-69.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, showers possible during the afternoon. High 64-71.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers. High 64-71.

Weekend Outlook: May 7-10, 2021

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We’ve needed the rain that we received this week, and there’s more on the way, but for the most part, we’ll have some nice weather for the weekend.

High pressure remains in control into Friday, with generally dry and mild conditions, though temperatures are still a little below normal for early May. Clouds start to stream in late Friday and Friday night as a coastal low passes south and east of the region and an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west. For the most part, the coastal low will miss us, though a few showers are possible across the Cape and Islands. The upper-level disturbance will bring in some showers on Saturday, but they won’t be that heavy or that widespread.

Average high temperatures for early May are generally in the middle 60s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds back in on Sunday with dry and cool conditions, but another system will quickly follow. This will bring in some rain for Sunday night and Monday. Once it again, it shouldn’t be that heavy, but since rainfall is still well below normal for the year, every little bit helps. Some clearing may take place Monday afternoon, and if we can get enough sun, temperatures could end up even warmer than we are currently expecting.

Despite this week’s rain, precipitation is running 3-6 inches below normal for the year-to-date across the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 56-63.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 52-59.

Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, then clearing after midnight. Low 39-46.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon. High 59-66.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 40-47.

Monday: Cloudy with showers during the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, breezy. High 56-63.

Weekly Outlook: May 3-9, 2021

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This is definitely not shaping up to be a great week to be on vacation, but it is shaping up to be a decent week to put another dent in our developing drought.

Rainfall has been well below normal across the region for several months. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

A cold front moved through late yesterday, and it will stall out south of the region today. With the front nearby, we’ll have plenty of clouds around today, with temperatures that are much cooler than we had on Sunday. We could see a few breaks of sun, but in general, clouds will dominate. By late in the day, we’ll see some more showers moving in as a wave of low pressure rides along that frontal boundary. Those showers should come to an end Tuesday morning, but again, we’ll still have lots of clouds around, with temperatures possibly becoming quite cool behind that wave. Another wave will approach during Tuesday night and Wednesday. This wave may lift the front northward, allowing milder air to move back in to at least part of the region. That wave moves offshore on Wednesday, bringing an end to the rain and dragging the front much farther offshore. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with some sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. Thursday will definitely be the pick of the week.

Temperatures will be near to below normal across most of the region this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As we head into the end of the week and the weekend, things get unsettled again. A coastal storm will likely impact the region, but the models don’t completely agree yet on what that impact will be, or exactly when it will be. Friday and/or Saturday will likely feature a period of rain, possibly heavy, some gusty winds, and cool temperatures. How much rain, how much wind, and how cool it will be are details that we don’t have a good handle on yet. In fact, at least one model shows the potential for some wet snow to mix in, especially over the hills of central New England. While this wouldn’t be unheard of this late in the season, we’re not expecting it to occur, though we’re not completely ruling it out either. As for next Sunday, the coastal storm should be out of the picture, but another system may be approaching from the west, as our active pattern is expected to continue for quite some time.

There is plenty of disagreement among the models in regard to a potential storm system late this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible late in the day. High 54-61 along the coast, 61-68 inland.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Showers end in the morning, remaining mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 55-62, potentially turning much cooler during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers redeveloping. Low 43-50.

Wednesday: Showers ending by midday, some sunny breaks are possible late in the day. High 58-65, cooler along the coast

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 58-65.

Friday: Cloudy with showers possible. High 53-60.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for showers. High 55-62.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 57-64.