Hurricane Season is Here

For the first time since 2014, we made it to the official start of Hurricane Season without having a named storm already develop.

Satellite photo for each of the 21 named storms that developed during the 2021 Hurricane Season, Image provided by NOAA.

2021 featured another very active season, with a total of 21 named storms (we’re still skeptical on at least a few of them), making it the 3rd most active storm on record. Only one storm, Ida, had its name retired. Ida slammed into Louisiana as a Category 4 storm, inflicting more than $60 Billion in damage and resulting in 55 deaths. Here in New England, we had 2 tropical storms make landfall last season. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This is just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post)

2021 was another very active hurricane season. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

It looks like another active season is expected this year. NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 24, and it calls for a 65 percent chance for an above normal season, a 25 percent chance for a normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below normal season. Many of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting a busy season, due to a number of factors. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 2. Their initial forecast from April called for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the United States at 71% (52% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a storm making landfall along the East Coast at 47% (31% is the average). The last 7 seasons have all featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.

List of names for storms that form during the 2022 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.

Despite the early start for the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.

Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are in the Gulf of Mexico or northwest Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A busy season does not always mean that multiple storms (or any storms for that matter) will impact the United States, though 2020 saw much of the Gulf Coast and East Coast threatened by tropical systems. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, an inactive year doesn’t mean much for landfall probabilities as well. Only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the 1st one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.

Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are very overdue for a hurricane to head this way. Using data back to 1851, here are some stats that show how overdue we are:

  • Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.4 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. Last year, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
  • Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.3 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. Last year, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
  • Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s been 31 years since Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
  • Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.4 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 31 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
  • Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869, the infamous 1938 Long Island Express, and Hurricane Carol in 1954. That’s an average of 1 every 57 years, and the longest time between 2 major hurricanes is 69 years (1869-1938). We’re at 67 years since Carol. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 387 years, or one every 64.5 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 27 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.

We all saw what Sandy did in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm). When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath.

The Atlantic is quiet right now (more on that in a moment), but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island with 90 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.

The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source, especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared, as we’ve learned recently.

Could a tropical depression develop later this week in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico? It’s possible. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

There is something we’re keeping an eye on as hurricane season begins. Hurricane Agatha made landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico yesterday. It will dissipate today or tomorrow, but what’s left of it will drift towards the Yucatan Peninsula and then likely the southeastern Gulf of Mexico As it does so, conditions could be favorable for it to become a new tropical depression toward the end of the week. Whether it does or doesn’t develop, it will bring some heavy rain to parts of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas this weekend.

Weekly Outlook: May 30 – June 5, 2022

“Summer’s here and the time is right for dancing in the street”

Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer, and June 1 is the official start to meteorological summer. Either way, today is going to feel like summer.

Warm to hot weather is likely today with high pressure settling offshore. Many places away from the coast should get well into the 80s, but dewpoints only in the 50s and lower 60s will keep it somewhat comfortable. A backdoor cold front starts to drop down the coast on Tuesday, which will bring cooler weather to coastal areas during the morning, but inland, it will be warm to hot again before temperatures quickly drop during the afternoon or evening. Wednesday looks to be cool and possibly damp as some showers may accompany a wave of low pressure riding along that front as it starts to lift northward as a warm front again. Does it get all the way through? That remains to be seen, but more waves of low pressure riding along it bring in some more showers on Thursday and Friday. Our temperatures will be determined by where the front is located. For now, Thursday looks milder, and Friday cooler again, but this is obviously subject to change. High pressure looks to build in for the weekend with drier conditions.

A warm Memorial Day is expected across the region. Image provided by

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 85-92, cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71, cooler along the coast from the North Shore into southern Maine.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-73 for the coast of NH and Maine, 74-81 for east-coastal areas in Massachusetts, and 82-89 elsewhere, but temperatures will drop sharply in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with some showers late in the day and at night. High 62-69.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, chance for a shower. High 71-78.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 62-69.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 70-77.

Weekend Outlook: May 27-30, 2022

We’ve reached the unofficial start of summer – Memorial Day Weekend, and there is some summer-like weather on the way.

Low pressure will head towards the Great Lakes, sending a warm front towards our area. Some clouds will stream in ahead of the warm front tonight and Friday, but aside from a stray shower or some drizzle near the South Coast late tonight, most of the shower or thunderstorm activity should hold off until Friday night when the warm front finally moves through. Showers should come to an end Saturday morning, with some sunshine developing in the afternoon. However, as that low pressure system passes by to the north, it will drag a cold front across the region late in the day on Saturday, possibly producing another shower or thunderstorm. Depending on the timing of the front and how much sunshine we see in the afternoon, a few strong storms are possible. High pressure builds in behind the front Saturday night, allowing skies to clear out, setting up a fantastic Sunday with sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures. As for Memorial Day itself, current indications are for sunshine mixed with some clouds, and the potential for even warmer weather. It wouldn’t be a surprise if some inland locations made a run at 90 in the afternoon.

Memorial Day is looking quite warm at this point. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, patchy fog and possibly some drizzle near the South Coast. Low 54-61.

Friday: Clouds and some sunny breaks, breezy. High 76-83, cooler near the South Coast.

Friday night: Cloudy with showers and possibly thunderstorms likely. Low 59-66.

Saturday: Showers end early, then becoming partly sunny and breezy with a chance for another shower or thunderstorm late in the day. High 73-80, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 52-59.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 73-80.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler along the South Coast.

Weekly Outlook: May 23-30, 2022

Memorial Day Weekend is the traditional start of summer, but after our summer preview this past weekend, hot weather will go away for a little while.

High pressure builds in for the first half of the week, with generally dry and seasonably mild conditions expected through Wednesday. By Thursday, the high slides offshore, and low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes, sending a warm front our way. That will mean a return to warmer and more humid conditions by late in the day, along with the chance for a few showers. As that system heads into southeastern Canada, it will drag a cold front across the region, with more showers and possibly some thunderstorms on Friday. There’s at least one model that tries to slow down the front, with showers lingering into Saturday, and it’s possible, but we’re not leaning that way at this time. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Memorial Day with dry and seasonably warm conditions returning.

Average high temperatures in late May should be close to 70 degrees. Image provided by

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 63-70.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Thursday: Partly sunny, showers possible late in the day and at night. High 66-73.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 72-79.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Memorial Day: Partly to mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: May 20-23, 2022

After a cool and damp day today, big changes are on the way.

A weak area of low pressure pulls away overnight, and skies start to clear out. A warm front moves across the region on Friday, allowing warmer air to start to move in. A shower or thunderstorm is possible during the evening, then very warm to hot and increasingly humid air settles in for the weekend as high pressure builds in. Away from the coastline, temperatures should get well into the 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks like the hottest day, with some upper 90s possible across the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire. A cold front will approach late Sunday, with some showers and thunderstorms likely at night. Monday will be more seasonable, but there may still be plenty of clouds, with some showers, mainly in the morning.

Sunday looks like the hotter of the two days, with some places getting into the upper 90s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing, with some patchy fog, especially near the coast. Low 45-52.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 74-81, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: An evening shower or thunderstorm, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog near the coast. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Sunny, hot, and becoming humid. High 90-97, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Sunday: Sunny and hot, clouds start to move in during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 91-98, cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60-67.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, some showers possible in the morning. High 71-78.

Weekly Outlook: May 16-22, 2022

We’re starting the week with a bang, as a strong cold front may produce some severe weather today.

Once the fog near the South Coast burns off this morning, we’ll have partly sunny skies today and it will be warm and somewhat humid. However, a strong cold front will move across the region later today, bringing an end to the humidity and mild temperatures. Ahead of that front, showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into part of the evening. The bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, but some of the storms that make it this far east could still produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

The farther west you go, the more likely severe weather becomes today. image provided by NOAA.

Behind the front, an upper-level low pressure system will cross the Northeast on Tuesday, generating some clouds and possibly a stray shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. By Friday, a warm front will move across the region, allowing warmer and more humid air to move back into the region, Saturday looks like it will be the warmest day, with temperatures possibly topping 90 in much of the region. The latter half of the weekend is a bit trickier. A cold front will move through, with some showers and thunderstorms likely, but the timing of the front is still in question, which has significant implications for the temperature forecast on Sunday. If the front moves through Sunday afternoon, as some models are showing, then another hot day is likely, but if it moves through Saturday night, as other models are indicating, then we’ll clear out after some morning showers, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. We’re going to play the middle ground for now, and hope for some clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Sunday could be another hot day, but how hot? Images provided b Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning fog along the South Coast, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a stray shower, breezy. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 65-72.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-723.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: May 13-16, 2022

Warm weather is finally here, and with it mostly dry weather, but that’s not a completely good thing.

High pressure will continue to build into the region over the next few days before sliding offshore. At the same time, the low pressure that has been sitting off the East Coast for the last several days while move into the Southeast and dissipate, but that doesn’t mean it won’t impact our weather.

Low pressure is close to the Carolina coast this afternoon, but it is impacting the weather as far north as southern New England. Loop provided by NOAA.

With winds still coming off the ocean, we’ll have plenty of moisture around tonight, resulting in low clouds and fog, especially along the coastal plain. Once it burns off Friday morning we’ll have partly to mostly sunny skies, though the clouds may hang tough across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Areas that break out into the sunshine should see temperatures well into the 70s and 80s thanks to southerly winds, though that will keep areas with south-facing coastlines significantly cooler. We may see a little fog Friday night once again. By Saturday, winds will shift into the southwest, resulting in warm weather across most of the region, except for south-facing shorelines once again. We’ll probably have a bit more cloudcover across the region, but it will still be at least partly sunny. A couple of showers and thunderstorms may pop up during the afternoon across the interior. Sunday looks to be similar, but showers may be a bit more numerous as the moisture from that old low pressure system works its way up the coastline. The day won’t be a washout by any means, but if you’ve got outdoor plans in the afternoon, keep an eye on the sky (or the radar).

Saturday looks to be an absolutely fantastic mid-May day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Monday, we’ll have a cold front approaching from the west. It’ll still be quite warm, but we’ll have more clouds, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day. Given how dry it’s been lately, we actually need the rain, though it doesn’t look like this will produce a lot of rain. We’ve had some brush fires locally in recent weeks, and drought conditions are beginning to develop in parts of the region. We really could use some rain to help alleviate that.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with patchy dense fog. Low 50-57.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, though it may remain mostly cloudy near the South Coast and across Cape Cod. High 68-75 near the coast, 76-83 inland.

Friday night: Clouds return, fog may redevelop across southeastern Massachusetts. Low 55-62.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the interior. High 79-86, cooler along south-facing shorelines.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, fog may redevelop across the South Coast and Cape Cod. Low 57-64.

Sunday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78-85, cooler along south-facing shorelines.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 74-81, cooler along south-facing shorelines.

Weekly Outlook: May 9-15, 2022

We’ve got a rather simple forecast for most of the upcoming week, and you’re probably going to like it.

Low pressure continues to drift southward off the Mid-Atlantic coastline today while high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. The result will be sunshine, but we’ll still have some gusty east to northeast winds keeping us on the cool side, especially near the coast. By Tuesday, the low drifts farther to the south, though some moisture rotating around it may produce a shower or two across parts of eastern Massachusetts. Otherwise, the high will continue to build in with sunshine, but it will still remain breezy and one the cool side. Temperatures moderate a bit more on Wednesday as winds diminish, but it will still be on the cool side at the coast. The latter half of the week and start of the week is when the big changes occur.

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal across the region again today. Image provided by

High pressure slides offshore for Thursday, and remains there into Saturday. The result will be sunshine and much warmer temperatures. How warm? How does highs in the 70s and 80s sound? A seabreeze will keep coastal areas cooler, but away from the shoreline? Break out the shorts and open the sunroof. Some models even show the potential for temperatures to get close to 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching with some showers likely along with cooler temperatures. How cool is still a bit up in the air, but we’ll worry about that more in our weekend outlook on Thursday.

Saturday looks like a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning clouds give way to afternoon sunshine, windy. High 57-64, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 60-67 inland, 53-60 along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower can’t be ruled out. High 65-72 inland, 58-65 along the coast.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, warmer. High 76-83, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: May 6-9, 2022

For parts of the region, we’ve got a decent weekend coming up, for other parts, not so much.

While you’re enjoying today’s sunshine and mild temperatures, changes are coming. High pressure will build in to our north while low pressure slowly moves toward and then off the Mid-Atlantic coastline before stalling out south of New England. We’ll be caught in between these two for the next several days. We’ll see clouds streaming in tonight ahead of the low pressure system. Some rain will spread in for Friday afternoon into Saturday, but the northern extent of the rain is still a bit of a question mark. Some models keep it confined to just the South Coast, some bring it up into the Merrimack Valley. We’re going with a compromise for now, with rain mainly south of the Mass Pike, but plenty of clouds everywhere. We’ll also have some gusty east to northeast winds through the weekend, which combined with the clouds and rain will result in a few rather chilly days. By later Sunday into Monday, the storm will start to drift southward while the high to our north builds in, with skies eventually clearing and temperatures starting to moderate, especially away from the shoreline.

How far north will the rain get for Friday and Saturday? The models don’t completely agree yet. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing, mainly south of Mass Pike. High 59-66.

Friday night: Periods of rain and showers, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. High 48-55.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 37-44.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine. breezy. High 51-58, warmest well inland.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 36-43.

Monday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 49-56 along the coast, 56-63 inland.

A warming trend could be on the way later next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, just a sneak peek at next week shows the potential for a significant warmup around here for the latter half of next week and into next weekend. Some models are showing the potential for at least few days where the first number of high temperature is an “8”. Now, it’s a week away, and things can change, plus, we’ve got the very chilly Atlantic right here which always can complicate things at this time of year, but we figured we’d let you know that there is the chance for things to finally feel likely May. For now, it’s just potential, but we’ll update you in our Weekly Outlook Monday morning.

Weekly Outlook: May 2-8, 2022

Looks like some wet weather is on the way this week, but that’s a good thing, because we need it.

March and April have been very dry across a good portion of the region. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with a warm front trying to move into the region today. It won’t get here, so we’ll stay cool but the rain ahead of the front will get here, with some showers likely this afternoon and tonight. High pressure tries to build in on Tuesday with some drier weather, but the clouds and cool temperatures will hang around. The next system quickly follows on Wednesday, with another round of rain likely. High pressure builds in for Thursday and this time we will clear out with some milder temperatures.

Thursday looks like the pick of the week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The end of the week and the weekend remain very uncertain at this point. We’ll have high pressure trying to build in from the north while low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and then off the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing south of us. The question is, how far south? The models don’t agree on this at all, and that’s the difference between a rainy and chilly Friday and Saturday, or rain confined to areas south of the Mass Pike, or the rain staying completely offshore with some sunshine possible. We hope to have a better idea on this by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Sunday looks to be a decent day right now with high pressure building in, but that will be influenced by what happens on Friday and Saturday, so it can change.

The models do not agree on what will happen with a storm system next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly during the afternoon and evening. High 55-62, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Showers ending, remaining cloudy. Low 39-46.

Tuesday: Clouds and some afternoon sunny breaks. High 52-59.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late at night. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain developing. High 48-55.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High 57-64.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High 49-56.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 55-62.