Month: July 2023

Weekly Outlook: July 31-August 6, 2023

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After one of the wettest Julys on record, we’ve got an extended stretch of dry weather to start August.

It has been an extraordinarily wet July across the Northeast. Images provided by WeatherBell.

A weak cold front will cross the region today, generating some clouds and possibly a few showers this afternoon, otherwise, high pressure will be in control through Thursday, with sunshine, cool temperatures and, lower humidity levels. Yes, you can turn off the air conditioning and open the windows for the next several days and save on that electric bill. By the end of the week, another upper-level low will drop into the Great Lakes, while at the surface, a low pressure area moves into southeastern Canada, dragging a cold front across the region. The result will be some showers and thunderstorms on Friday and early Saturday, with some heavy rain possible. High pressure builds back in for later Saturday and Sunday with drier weather.

Some of the models show the potential for some heavy rain around here Friday into Saturday. Images provide by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sun with some afternoon clouds and a few showers or thunderstorms. High 75-82.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Tuesday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds again. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 75-82.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 74-81.

Saturday: Showers end early, becoming partly sunny. High 75-82.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

After a bit of a lull, we may have some activity in the Atlantic over the next couple of days. Images provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Finally, a quick note on the tropics. The potential exists for two named tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours, but neither of them will be a threat to any land areas. A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure has been slowly organizing as it made its way across the Atlantic over the past week. Conditions are favorite for some additional development as the storm turns toward the north well east of the Lesser Antilles today. It should head northward and then eventually northeastward, likely become a tropical depression and quite possibly a tropical storm over the next couple of days. It could eventually become a potent extratropical system as it heads toward the British Isles at the end of the week. There’s also a system off the North Carolina coast. This system produced heavy rain across parts of Florida and the Southeast over the past few days, and now that it is offshore again and over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, it has a small window where it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm today before it merges with a frontal system and races northeastward over the open waters of the Atlantic. If either system does develop, we’ll have another post on Monday talking about the tropics around the world, as the Atlantic isn’t the only place with tropical activity at the moment.

Weekend Outlook: July 28-31, 2023

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We’ve got a little bit of everything this weekend – severe weather, heat and humidity, and a return to cooler and drier weather. Let’s get right to the details.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8pm. Image provided by NOAA.

We’re starting things off on an active note, with a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of the region, except Cape Cod and the Islands, until 8pm. A vigorous upper-level disturbance is moving toward the region, and it has already triggered some showers and thunderstorms. They’ll become a bit more widespread as the afternoon wears on while moving generally eastward towards the area. Some of the stronger storms may produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding, and possibly a tornado or two. With the potential for some heavy rain, a Flood Watch is also in effect for a good portion of the area. Activity should wind down and move offshore before midnight, leaving us with a warm and muggy night, with many spots not dropping below 70. Friday looks to be a very warm to hot day with moderate to high humidity for much of the region. High temperatures will likely approach or exceed 90 in many locations, except for the immediate South Coast. The combination of heat and humidity will send the heat index well into the 90s, so a Heat Advisory has also been issued. Friday night will be another warm and muggy night, leading into Saturday, which is the transition day.

The heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s in many areas Friday afternoon. Images provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday will start off with some sunshine, along with very warm and humid conditions, but a strong cold front will be moving toward the region. Depending on how quickly the clouds move in, some spots could reach 90 by midday, especially south of the Mass Pike. We’ll have some showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front by early afternoon, and again, the threat is there for some severe weather, as well as heavy rainfall, so Flood Watches will likely be issued once again. Showers and storms end with the passage of the cold front at night, then a much cooler and drier airmass settles in for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, and temperatures will only be in the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs both days. With night time lows dropping into the 50s in many spots Sunday night, you’ll be able to turn off the air conditioner and open the windows in your dwelling. This airmass may hang around for a good chunk of the week, with one model showing the potential for a few spots to drop into the upper 40s Wednesday morning. We’ll have a closer look at that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Lows could drop into the 50s in many locations Monday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe during the evening, ending by midnight, then skies clear out. Low 67-74.

Friday: Sunny, hot, and fairly humid. High 86-93.

Friday night: Clear skies, clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 68-75.

Saturday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing by early afternoon, some could be strong. High 84-91.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms end during the evening, some clearing late at night. Low 60-67.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: July 24-30, 2023

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It’s been a very wet July across most of the region, but this week will be drier, but also warmer.

Temperatures have been 2-4 degrees above normal across the Northeast this month and even warmer weather is expected this week. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with high pressure keeping the region dry and warm, but a weak upper-level trough of low pressure remains in place across the southeastern Canada. As little disturbances rotate around that trough, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up each afternoon, but they’ll be widely scattered, and mainly across the interior. For most of us, it’ll just be partly to mostly sunny, quite warm, and not that humid for Monday and Tuesday. During the latter half of the week, both temperatures and humidity levels will be on the rise, with a couple of hot days expected for Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, a cold front will be dropping down from Canada, producing some showers and thunderstorms late Friday into early Saturday. The question is, when does the front actually move through? That’ll be the difference between another hot and humid day on Saturday or a cooler and drier day. By Sunday, the cooler and drier air should finally settle into most of the region.

Saturday could be either warm or hot, depending on which model you trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 82-89.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, just a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 87-94.

Friday: Partly sunny, some showers and thunderstorms possible at night. High 88-95.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly early. High 82-82.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: July 21-24, 2023

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We’ve actually got some nice weather coming up for the weekend, unlike the last several weekends across the region.

Most of the region has received between 5 and 12 inches of rain over the past 30 days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm front will move toward the region tonight, spreading in some clouds, and possibly a shower or two. A cold front will move toward the region on Friday, with plenty of clouds, and some showers and thunderstorms, though it looks like they may hold off until late in the day, more likely during the evening and at night. The front pushes offshore early Saturday, with skies gradually clearing during the day. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, but as high pressure settles in, humidity levels will drop. The high then remains in control for Sunday and Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and moderate humidity levels.

Dewpoints in the 50s Sunday afternoon? A much-welcome change from the past couple of weeks. Images provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Partly cloudy this evening, then clouds move in overnight, just a slight chance for a shower. Low 61-68.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely thunderstorms developing late in the day. High 75-82, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Showers and storms taper off in the evening, some late-night clearing. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Gradual clearing. High 78-85.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 60-67.

Sunday: Lots of sunshine. High 80-87.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Weekly Outlook: July 17-23, 2024

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Yup, we’re still stuck in the same pattern we’ve been in for a while now, with an upper-level low sitting near the Great Lakes. Some days will be like yesterday – wet (or very wet), and some will be like today (dry), but there’s no persistent heat on the way.

Upper Air analysis shows our persistent upper-level low centered over Lake Superior, while a rather robust ridge over Arizona is helping to bake the Southwest. Image provided by NOAA.

After an extraordinarily wet day on Sunday, we’ll dry out today as high pressure builds in. It’ll still be warm and humid, but we’re not expecting any rain. Another frontal system will move toward the region on Tuesday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce downpours, but for now, we’re not expecting a repeat on Sunday. High pressure returns with drier weather on Wednesday, then another system brings in more showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. Again, some downpours are possible, but a widespread heavy rain event doesn’t appear likely at this time Once that system moves out, drier air should move in for the weekend. This would be a welcome change from the past several weekends, which all seemed to feature some rain, but don’t consider it a lock just yet. It’s a week away and things can change.

The rain this week shouldn’t be as heavy as Sunday was, but there is still the potential for some locally heavy downpours. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms end before midnight. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87.

Thursday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms move in late in the day, continuing at night. High 77-84.

Friday: Showers end in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon. High 77-84.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Weekend Outlook: July 14-17, 2023

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Another summer weekend, another upper-level low impacting our weather.

You’ve heard this from us plenty of times, but the pattern just hasn’t changed much. We’ve got a blocking pattern in place across Greenland, with a trough of low pressure, often times a closed low, setting up shop over the Midwest. These lows slowly drift eastward, and as they move out, we get a couple of nice days before the next trough/low drops into the Midwest. As disturbances rotate around those troughs, they help to trigger showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. At least we’re on the warm side of the troughs, with southwest flow aloft, meaning it’s warm and humid most of the time. Consider yourselves lucky, in places on the other side of the trough, like the Northern and Central Plains, not only have the last few weeks been quite wet, temperatures have been well below normal.

Temperatures have been well below normal across the nation’s midsection so far in July. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In terms of what we can expect around here, well, expect some showers and thunderstorms to develop each day, mainly during the afternoon hours, and they should diminish after sunset. These storms will be most widespread on Friday and again on Sunday as disturbances rotate through the region. Any storms that develop may produce heavy rainfall, which could trigger flooding, especially with the ground quite wet across much of the region. Temperatures will be mainly in the upper 70s and 80s during the day, but it will remain humid.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, some showers and thunderstorms possible during the evening. Low 67-74.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from late morning into the afternoon. Some of the storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds. High 78-85.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a few showers and storms possible in the afternoon. High 80-87.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 67-74.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers and thunderstorms likely, some may produce heavy rain. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Plenty of clouds, showers end in the evening. Low 66-73.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82-89.

Weekly Outlook: July 10-16, 2023

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Stop us if you’ve heard this before – we’ll be dealing with upper-level lows and upper-level troughs of low pressure again this week, with more rain on the way.

There is a moderate risk for excessive rainfall across much of the interior today. Image provided by Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

A frontal system will move into the region today while a wave of low pressure rides up along it. This system produced extraordinarily heavy rain across western New England and eastern New York yesterday. While we’ll have some of that heavy and thunderstorms moving in today, it shouldn’t be anywhere near the magnitude of what they experienced across the Hudson and Connecticut Valleys yesterday, where as much as 5-10 inches of rain caused widespread severe flooding. Some of the thunderstorms that move through may also produce gusty winds, but heavy rain remains the most significant threat.

The heaviest rain will fall across western and northern New England today and tonight, but some models still show some heavy rain totals around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

That system will pull away on Tuesday with showers ending and some clearing, then high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft for Wednesday. That means we’ll have sunshine and warm to hot and humid conditions – it’ll feel like summer once again. However, this dry interlude will be short-lived. Another trough of low pressure will start to move into the Midwest by Thursday, and only make very slow eastward progress through the weekend. As disturbances rotate through this upper trough, they’ll generate some showers and thunderstorms around here each afternoon from Thursday into Sunday. None of the days should be a washout, so don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans, but for now Friday and Sunday look to have the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

One upper-level low moves across the Northeast to start the week, another drops into the Great Lakes later in the week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely, some heavy rain possible, especially across the interior. High 70-77.

Monday night: Showers taper off, some late-night clearing possible. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 85-92.

Thursday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms around in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. High 76-83.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy with some showers and thunderstorms developing. High 76-83.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Weekend Outlook: July 7-10, 2023

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The first half of the weekend looks rather nice, but the second half not so much. Either way, the humidity is going anywhere anytime soon.

Dewpoints will be near or above 70 for the next several days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Great Lakes over the next few days, keeping us on the warm and humid side. We’ll stay dry for the most part on Friday and Saturday, aside from a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly across the interior. Temperatures may reach 90 in many areas again on Friday, but as winds become more southerly on Saturday temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still well into the 80s in many areas, A frontal system will slowly move toward the region this weekend, and by Sunday it should be close enough to spread more clouds in. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front in the Mid-Atlantic states and ride it northward, bringing us more widespread showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and again on Monday, some of which could be locally heavy, again they’ll be most numerous across the interior.

Rainfall has been above normal across the region since early June. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy with areas fog developing. Low 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly well north and west of Boston. High 83-90, a little cooler at the coast.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Low 65-72.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, again mostly well north and west of Boston. High 80-87, a little cooler at the coast.

Saturday night: Plenty of clouds, fog possible again. Low 64-71.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior. High 77-84.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 64-71.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: July 3-9, 2023

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Our unsettled pattern will continue for a good chunk of the week, but some changes are expected.

There is a risk for severe weather across the region today. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

We start the week off with a similar pattern to what we’ve had for a while now. An upper-level trough of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast with a frontal system at the surface stalled out across the region. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms again today, a few of which could be quite strong. More heavy rain is possible with some storms, which could lead to areas of flooding, especially from northern Connecticut across central and northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, where as much as 2-4 inches of rain fell on Sunday. The front will dissipate across the region on Tuesday, with some additional showers and thunderstorms possible, but they shouldn’t be as widespread as today, which is good news for July 4th celebrations in many locations.

Some additional heavy rainfall is expected across parts of the region today and tomorrow. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Wednesday and Thursday feature a change, as a ridge of high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft. This means we’ll be drier and warmer, with many spots approaching 90 degrees. The change will be short-lived though, as another frontal system approaches on Friday, and slows down as it moves across the region next weekend. A wave of low pressure may ride along it while another upper-level trough moves in from the Midwest, meaning that we’re back in the humid and unsettled pattern. While some showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, none of the days should be a washout.

The combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it’s in the lower 90s Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning fog, then intervals of clouds and sunshine with showers and thunderstorms developing, some may be locally heavy. High 77-84, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, more showers and thunderstorms through the evening, tapering off overnight, areas of fog develop. Low 63-70.

Independence Day: Partly sunny with a chance for some additional showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 83-90, a little cooler right at the coast.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Saturday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms possible. High 79-86.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with more showers and thunderstorms likely. High 77-84.