Hurricane Laura is now a Category 3 hurricane with its sights set on the Gulf Coast.

As of 11am EDT, Hurricane Laura was centered about 225 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana, moving toward the northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph, making Laura a Category 3 Hurricane. A buoy in the central Gulf of Mexico reported sustained winds of 76 mph and a gust to 107mph as the center of Laura passed nearby this morning. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coastline, with Tropical Storm Warnings, Hurricane Watches, and Storm Surge Watches for areas adjacent to the warning areas.

The forecast for Laura is rather simple at this point. It will continue heading northwest towards a trough of low pressure moving across the nation’s mid-section. Landfall is expected tonight very close to the Texas/Louisiana border. The only question is, how strong will Laura get? Many forecast models bring Laura up to Category 4 intensity before landfall, which would mean sustained winds of 131-155 mph. However, intensity forecasts are notoriously poor. One thing that could limit intensity would be an eyewall replacement cycle. In stronger hurricanes, you’ll get a second eyewall that forms outside the center. That eyewall will eventually start to contract towards the eye, replacing the current eyewall. When this occurs, storms tend to weaken a bit. These are very hard to predict in advance.

Laura presents many threats to the Gulf Coast. A storm surge of up to 15-20 feet will inundate coastal areas near and just to the east of where the center makes landfall. This will result in flooding across many of the bayous of southern Louisiana. Strong winds will obviously be a major hazard as well, mainly east of the center. The strong winds will likely penetrate well inland, as the storm will be powerful, though it should start to weaken fairly rapidly once inland.

By far, the biggest threat, as it is with most tropical systems, is heavy rain and the freshwater flooding it will produce. Rainfall totals of 10-15 inches and locally heavier are likely across extreme southeast Texas and western Louisiana. Since Laura is moving fairly quickly and not expected to stall out, we shouldn’t see a repeat of the 30-60 inches that Harvey produced in the same area 3 years ago this week.

Farther inland, rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are expected up into Arkansas. As the storm gets caught up in the jet stream and becomes extratropical, it will bring heavy rain to parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Friday into Saturday. Once it moves off the coast, it may strengthen a little, and could enhance some of the rain expected across New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend associated with a cold front.

Once Laura moves inland, the Atlantic should remain quiet for the next week or so. Plumes of Saharan Dust continue to move off the west coast of Africa and traverse the Atlantic and Caribbean. The very dry air associated with these plumes inhibits thunderstorm development, which means they also prevent tropical systems from developing.

Laura isn’t the only active storm in the tropics right now. This morning two separate tropical depressions have developed in the Eastern Pacific, off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Both are expected to become tropical storms in the next 24-36 hours, but remain relatively weak. Tropical Depression 13-E may bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to southern portions of Baja California late this week, but Tropical Depression 14-E should not impact any land areas.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Bavi has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph as it moves into the Yellow Sea. The current forecast calls for the storm to make landfall in western North Korea this evening, then rapidly weaken as it moves inland into extreme northeastern China. As with Laura, strong winds and storm surge will have significant impacts on the region, but rainfall totals of 4-8 inches and locally heavier will result in flooding in many areas.

This will not be a good week to take a vacation down along the Gulf Coast, especially from Louisiana into Texas, and COVID has nothing to do with it.

Tropical Storm Marco is the more immediate threat. As of 11am EDT Sunday, Marco was centered about 325 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving toward the north-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings as well as Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

Marco’s forecast is a bit complicated. The warm waters of the Gulf provide ample fuel for Marco to strengthen, and it could become a hurricane later today. However, as it heads northward, southwesterly shear will increase, which will help weaken the storm. Although hurricane warnings are in effect, Marco could weaken to a tropical storm before making landfall, likely along the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon or evening. Since there is little difference between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane, this has little impact on what will actually occur across the region.

Marco will produce strong winds, mainly along the coast, and a storm surge of up to 6 feet will result in flooding along the coast and in the low-lying bayous of southern Louisiana. However, Marco’s biggest threat will be flooding from heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier will result in flooding in many areas. This is exacerbated in New Orleans, where much of the city itself is below sea-level and even heavy thunderstorms can produce flooding. We’re not expecting Katrina-level flooding, and the levees shouldn’t be tested too much by this storm, but widespread flooding is likely.

Marco is the initial threat, but Tropical Storm Laura is the more significant threat to the Gulf Coast. As of 11am EDT Sunday, Laura was centered about 95 miles southeast of the eastern tip of Cuba, moving toward the west-northwest at 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba and the Southeastern Bahamas, with Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Florida Keys.

In the near-term, Laura is expected to traverse the entire length of Cuba for the next day or so, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Heavy rains will diminish across the Dominican Republic and Haiti today as Laura pulls away.  With the center interacting with land, little strengthening is anticipated for the next 24-36 hours, and some weakening is possible. Once we get to late Monday, things become a bit more complicated.

Laura is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday evening as a tropical storm. Once it does, it will find an environment that is favorable for strengthening. Water temperatures are well into the 80s, providing plenty of fuel for the system. (Tropical systems need water warmer than 80F/26C to survive and/or strengthen) A ridge of high pressure will also be building in aloft, resulting in very little wind shear. This is also an area that climatologically favors rapid intensification of tropical systems. Several models show the potential for Laura to quickly become a hurricane and possibly a major hurricane as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. It should be noted that intensity forecasts for tropical systems, especially from forecast models, have been known to be rather poor.

The track forecast for Laura is also a bit uncertain. The ridge of high pressure building in will help steer Laura more towards the west-northwest. How strong that ridge actually is will help determine how far west Laura moves. While the models were nearly unanimous just 24 hours ago that Laura was heading towards the Central Gulf Coast, they have shifted westward, putting parts of Texas and western Louisiana in the crosshairs. Additional shifts are likely over the next day or two as the models adjust to what is actually going on in the atmosphere. For now, residents of the Gulf Coast from Central Texas to Alabama should keep a close eye on Laura’s progress.

There are no other systems in the Atlantic that are being monitored right now, but we are approaching the peak of Hurricane Season, so that will likely change soon. There are two systems in the Eastern Pacific that may become tropical depressions in the next day or two, and Typhoon Bavi will be a threat to Korea over the next 24-48 hours in the Western Pacific.

As of 11am EDT, Typhoon Bavi was centered about 600 miles south-southwest of the southwestern South Korea, moving toward the northeast at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph. Bavi is expected to turn more toward the north over the next 12-24 hours, with some additional strengthening expected. The current forecast calls for Bavi to move into the Yellow Sea, and pass just west of South Korea, before making landfall in extreme northwestern North Korea, then it will move into extreme northeastern China where it will rapidly weaken. Strong winds and storm surge flooding are likely across the Korean Peninsula over the next few days, with heavy rain likely causing flooding along the Peninsula as well as in northeastern China. Parts of this region have received heavy rain recently, and some flooding has already occurred, so this will exacerbate it in some areas.

The hype machine is getting cranked up again because we have two tropical systems in or near the Caribbean at the moment.

The media is already in a frenzy because some forecast models show both systems becoming hurricanes and moving into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. While this is certainly a possibility, it is far from a lock. As is usually the case, we’ll separate fact from fiction for you.

We’ll start with Tropical Storm Laura, as it is the “stronger” of the two systems at the moment, though you wouldn’t know it from looking at satellite pictures. As of 5pm EDT, Laura was centered about 40 miles east of Antigua with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and was moving toward the west at 17 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the northeastern Caribbean and Hispaniola, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Laura does not have much thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the 40 mph estimate for winds may be very generous. Antigua has not reported winds higher than 10 mph all day long, though winds have gusted as high as 25 mph on Sint-Maarten.

The forecast for Laura is both simple and complicated at the same time. With a large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, Laura will continue west-northwestward for the next few days. That’s the simple part. Exactly where the center tracks has huge implications on its intensity. A track near or over Puerto Rico and then near or over Hispaniola and/or Cuba will mean the system remains very weak, if it even survives. However, if the center stays over water, especially if it remains far enough away from land, then it may have a chance to strengthen. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for it to become a hurricane late Monday or early Tuesday while moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. While this is certainly possible, we’ve got a long way to go before determining how likely this scenario is.

In the short term, we can expect some heavy rain and gusty winds across the northeastern Caribbean and into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier will lead to flooding and mudslides.

Meanwhile, in the western Caribbean we have Tropical Depression 14. As of 5pm, it was centered about 255 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, and was moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cancun. The Tropical Storm Warning actually extends along the north coast of the Yucatan to Dzilam.

The depression appeared to have 2 low-level centers this morning based on reconnaissance information, but they have now consolidated into one center. Despite that, the system has been slow to strengthen, despite seemingly favorable conditions with warm waters and low wind shear. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for some strengthening before the storm makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Saturday night. Assuming it becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named Marco.

Once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the questions increase. Will it continue northwestward or bend more toward the west-northwest? This will be determined by how strong the ridge over the Atlantic is. Some models show it building westward into the Gulf, which would send TD 14 (and also TS Laura) on a more west-northwestward track. How strong will TD 14 get? There’s plenty of warm water over the Gulf, but wind shear is forecast to increase, which will limit the strengthening of the system.

So, despite the media hype of “2 hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time” for early next week, the odds seem to be just as good that we may not have any hurricanes in the Gulf. There could be 2 tropical storms, or maybe 1 hurricane, or maybe only 1 storm. At this point, it is just to early to make that call. The other ridiculous statement we’ve heard is that the storms could collide. This just doesn’t happen. If two storms get close to each other, we get what is called the Fujiwhara Effect. Essentially, they start to rotate around each other. Alternately, if they get close to each other and one is considerably stronger than the other, the circulation around it could create enough wind shear to essentially destroy the weaker of the two storms.

Finally, another tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. It has some potential for development, and will be watched as it crosses the Atlantic over the next several days.