Weekly Outlook: September 26-October 3, 2022

Much of the forecast for this week is fairly straightforward, but it gets very complicated next weekend.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will move across the Northeast today into Tuesday. This means we’ll have some clouds popping up with a few showers developing during the afternoon, mainly on Monday, but a couple are possible on Tuesday as well. Wednesday through Friday will feature high pressure, which means we’ll remain dry and on the cool side. Next weekend has a high amount of uncertainty, and it has to do with Tropical Storm Ian.

Normal high temperatures in late September are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As of 12am Monday, Tropical Storm Ian was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph. The forecast calls for Ian to pass close to the Cayman Islands on Monday as a hurricane, then near or across western Cuba Monday night and Tuesday before moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane over the next few days. After that, its future gets a little murkier. A trough of low pressure across the eastern US should steer Ian northward and at some point northeastward, but when it makes that turn is not clear. This impacts where and when landfall will occur. At this point, landfall is possible anywhere from Fort Myers, Florida all the way to New Orleans. Complicating matters even more is the fact that as it gets farther northward, drier air and wind shear will act to weaken the storm. So, a sooner landfall (say in the Ft Myers to Tampa area) could result in a stronger storm making landfall, but if it heads toward the Florida Panhandle or central Gulf Coast, it could be considerably weaker at landfall. An earlier turn toward the northeast could also result in Ian moving back into the Atlantic, and thus could be a threat to the Carolinas.

The members of the various ensembles show a wide range of tracks for Ian as you get out to next weekend. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

So, how does that impact our forecast next weekend? Well, an earlier turn would likely keep the storm off to our south, with high pressure holding on over the Northeast, keeping us drier. A landfall farther north likely results in the storm rapidly weakening over land, but increases the possibility that the remains move up the Appalachians and bring some rain, possibly heavy, in here or across northern New England next weekend. At this point, it’s just too early to figure out which scenario may occur, so we’re going to be very vague in the forecast for now.

Most of the models keep the heavier rain both north and south of the region next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with a few showers possible in the afternoon, mainly north and west of Boston. High 68-75.

Monday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the evening. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 47-54.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 59-66.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

The Peak of Hurricane Season is Here

Remember all that talk not too long ago about how quiet hurricane season had been? Well, we now have four active systems in the Atlantic, one in the eastern Pacific, and two more in the western Pacific.

The tropics are very active right now. Image provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School.

We’ll start off with Hurricane Fiona, as it is the strongest one of the four and also the biggest threat. As of 5pm EDT, Fiona was centered about 370 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving toward the north-northeast at 40 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph, making Fiona a high-end Category 3 storm. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. An upper-level trough across the eastern US will pull Fiona a bit more toward the north later today and tonight. Fiona is expected to steadily weaken and become extratropical as it moves over cooler waters, but this is both good and bad. It’s good because it will be a weaker storm, but it’s bad because the extratropical transition means that the wind field will spread out, bringing stronger winds to a much larger area. Fiona is expected to make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia early Saturday as an extratropical system with the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. While Atlantic Canada is no stranger to powerful extratropical storms from the Fall into the Spring, this one will be much stronger than most of those storms. Widespread wind damage is likely as well as storm surge flooding near the coastline. Freshwater flooding won’t be as much of a concern as the system will be moving too quickly to drop excessive rain in many locations. Across parts of Labrador and eastern Quebec, cold air on the backside of the storm will allow the rain to change to snow, with several inches of accumulation possible in spots.

Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Fiona has already left a trail of destruction in its wake, and will almost certainly have its name retired after the season ends. It crossed the Lesser Antilles a week ago, producing some wind damage and flooding across Guadeloupe and nearby islands. Heavy rain and strong winds buffeted the Virgin Islands next, especially across St. Croix, but Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic were the beneficiaries of Fiona’s full fury. Torrential rainfall led to widespread severe flooding, and wind gusts in excess of 115 mph resulted in widespread damage across the region. At one point, the entire island of Puerto Rico was without power. Many locations in this region are still trying to recover from Hurricane Maria back in 2017. After leaving the Great Antilles, Fiona brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the nearby southeastern Bahamas. Finally, Fiona passed just west of Bermuda late last night and early this morning. Although the core of the storm missed the island, there were still reports of wind gusts to 100 mph. Large swells from Fiona have been impacting the Eastern US for the past few days and will gradually subside through the weekend.

Radar loop of Fiona approaching and crossing Puerto Rico. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Next up is Tropical Storm Gaston. As of 5pm EDT, Gaston was centered about 70 miles north of Faial Island in the Central Azores, moving toward the south at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect of the islands of the Western and Central Azores. Gaston is expected to turn more toward the southwest, then west over the next day or two. This will bring the center of Gaston closer to or across parts of the Azores. Gusty winds and heavy rain that could produce flooding and mudslides are expected. Steady weakening is expected, and Gaston will likely become extratropical by Sunday.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Gaston. Loop provided by NOAA.

Tropical Storm Hermine just formed late this afternoon in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. As of 5pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 290 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the north-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Hermine’s forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight, then it’ll weaken as it moves back over cooler water, and it will likely dissipate before the weekend is over. However, it will bring some heavy rain to parts of the Canary Islands over the weekend, with rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and locally heavier possibly resulting in flooding in some spots.

Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hermine. Loop provided by NOAA.

The last storm in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression 9. As of 5pm EDT, TD9 was centered about 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The short-term forecast for the depression is fairly simple. It should head more toward the west tonight and Saturday while steadily strengthening. Once it reaches Tropical Storm strength it will be named Ian. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. The storm should pass south of Jamaica late Saturday or early Sunday, then turn more toward the northwest and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane. It should approach western Cuba on Monday, likely as a hurricane. Heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are expected across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, and to a lesser extent across Jamaica. After that, things get more complex.

Forecast track for Tropical Depression 9 through the next 3 days. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A trough of low pressure will move into the eastern US, which should steer the system northward, and eventually northeastward. When that turn occurs is vital to the forecast. Once the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should strengthen, and could become a major hurricane, so obviously, where it heads towards becomes an important question. As you can see from the image below, the various model ensemble members do not agree on where that turn happens. Some have it miss the trough and head more toward the northwest, while the majority have it move toward western Florida or the Florida Panhandle. Beyond that, some bring it inland into the Southeast, others have it cross Florida and then become a threat to the East Coast. Some even bring it into New England or Nova Scotia (which would be really bad), and many just head out to sea once back in the Atlantic. Obviously, this is something that we won’t have a better handle on for at least a few more days, but anyone from the Central Gulf to the East Coast should keep an eye on this storm’s progress.

Ensemble forecasts for the track if Tropical Depression 9. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

There are a few other active systems in the Pacific as well. Tropical Storm Newton is expected to pull away from Socorro Island off of the Mexican coastline tonight and head out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific where it should weaken and dissipate over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Talas is expected to dissipate just off the south coast of Japan on Saturday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Noru will become an increasing threat to the Philippines over the next few days. As of Friday evening, Noru was centered about 580 miles east-northwest of Manila, moving toward the west-southwest a 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and Noru is expected to cross Luzon early Sunday as a typhoon. It should re-emerge in the South China Sea later in the day, then head westward, gathering strength early next week. It could make landfall in Vietnam by mid-week as a typhoon.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Noru. Image provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.

We’ll provide an update on TD9 in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, then likely do a full blog post about it later in the day on Monday.

Weekend Outlook: September 23-26, 2022

Fall has begun and fall weather is arriving right on schedule.

Cooler weather is already filtering in behind the cold front that moves through earlier today, and gusty northwest winds on Friday will result in the coolest day across the region in the past several months. High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine, but temperatures may struggle to reach 60 across parts of the area. The high slides off to the east on Saturday, allowing temperatures to moderate a bit, but it will remain breezy. Sunday may start off with some sunshine, but clouds will quickly move in as the next system moves toward the area. Some showers are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning, but most of the daylight hours on Sunday should be dry. Most of Monday looks dry too, with the rain ending in the morning, then some sunshine may develop in the afternoon.

Saturday morning will feature wind chills in the 30s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona will remain a powerful storm in the Atlantic. It’ll pass west of Bermuda tonight, then start to weaken and become extratropical as it heads northward toward eastern Nova Scotia. When it moves inland late Saturday or early Sunday, it will be an incredibly strong storm, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to most of eastern Canada. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for most of Atlantic Canada, and a High Wind Watch is in effect across eastern Maine. Around here, we may see some of the clouds on the western edge of the storm, but the bigger impact will be rough seas and large waves impacting the coast. A High Surf Advisory is in effect along the coast, with a Gale Warning for the coastal waters. Conditions should start to improve on Sunday as the storm moves into eastern Canada.

Forecast track for Hurricane Fiona. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Friday: Mostly sunny and windy. High 53-60.

Friday night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. High 62-69.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Sunday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy, a few showers possible late in the day. High 65-72.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers around. Low 53-60.

Monday: A few morning showers, then becoming partly sunny. High 67-74.

Weekly Outlook: September 19-25, 2022

Changes are on the way as astronomical summer comes to an end and autumn begins later this week.

We start the week off with a backdoor cold front stalled out across the region, making for a rather tricky temperature forecast. North of the front, northeast to east winds will keep temperatures in the 60s (even upper 50s near the coast), while south of the front, temperatures will get well into the 70s once again. A wave of low pressure will pass north of the region later today, producing some showers and possibly thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Tuesday looks to remain rather cloudy and on the cool side with a few more showers possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Wednesday should be a rather nice day with some sunshine and milder temperatures, but don’t get used to it. Another cold front starts to approach late in the day, with another round of showers and perhaps thunderstorms expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. This brings us to the start of fall and the bigger changes.

Temperatures at midday may range from near 60 along the NH Seacoast to near 80 along the South Coast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The autumnal equinox occurs at 9:03pm Thursday, marking the end of astronomical summer and start of astronomical fall, and right on cue, some fall weather will settle in. The system moving through early Thursday will move offshore, allowing much cooler air to settle in. How cool? The rain may end as some wet snow across the mountains of northern New England. (Yes, really.) Around here, high pressure builds in, and despite sunshine, temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some spots on Friday. Friday night looks rather chilly, with some frost possible in the normally cooler locations. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend, but likely will remain below to near normal.

Friday is shaping up to be a rather cool day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: A few sunny breaks across Cape Cod early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers or some drizzle early, showers becoming more widespread during the afternoon, except along the South Coast. High 57-64 across the Maine and NH Seacoast, 64-71 elsewhere north of the Mass Pike and east of Worcester, 72-79 south of the Mass Pike.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mostly before midnight. Low 55-62.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, chance for another shower or two. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, showers move in by evening, continuing overnight. High 68-75.

Thursday: Showers gradually ending, skies start to clear out late in the day, breezy at times. High 68-75.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and cool. High 57-64.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Weekend Outlook: September 16-19, 2022

It’s starting to feel like fall around here, but temperatures will warm up again, and some rain is on the way.

Friday morning will be on the chilly side when you walk out the door. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure keeps the region dry and cool into Saturday before it finally pushes offshore. Some of the haze and smoke from the fires out West may drift across the region tonight and early Friday, which could result in a colorful sunrise Friday morning if you’re up that way. By Sunday, the high slides offshore, and we start to warmup, but clouds will also be moving in. Late Sunday and Monday is much more uncertain. A backdoor cold front is going to try and drop southward, but whether it actually gets here or not is something the models don’t agree on. Some showers may move in late Sunday ahead of the front, but they’ll be more likely on Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along that front. As for temperatures on Monday, they will be highly dependent on the location of the front. North of the front, temperatures may stay in the 60s, while south it will be in the 70s or even low 80s. For now, we’re leaning toward the warmer air being mainly south of the Mass Pike, with cooler conditions to the north, but this is obviously highly uncertain.

Some models keep parts of the region warm on Monday, some don’t. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Meanwhile in the tropics, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed. As of 2pm, Fiona was centered about 465 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for many of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean. The current forecast calls for some slow strengthening over the next few days, despite the presence of westerly wind shear. It is expected to track across the Leeward Islands late Friday, and pass very close to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands Saturday into early Sunday. Beyond that, there are a number of scenarios, and depending on which model you believe, the storm could end up anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda to dissipated completely by this time next week.

Forecast track for Fiona based on the various members of several different model ensembles. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy, hazy at times. Low 44-51.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Sunday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds, showers possible late in the day. High 77-84, but temperatures may drop quickly late in the day, especially from northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire northward.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 58-65.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, with showers possible. High 65-72 north of the Mass Pike, 73-80 south of the Mass Pike.

Weekly Outlook: September 12-18, 2022

We’ve got another week that starts out with some rain, but shouldn’t end that way.

Last week’s heavy rain helped, but we remain in in severe to extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start off with a few showers this morning as a warm front moves through, but once they end we’ll see some sunshine today with warm and humid conditions. Clouds return tonight as a cold front approaches, and that front will produce some showers and thunderstorms as it moves through on Tuesday. A few storms may produce some gusty winds and heavy downpours, but for the most part, this should be a light rainfall event for the region. Behind the front, high pressure starts to build in on Wednesday, but temperatures will remain on the mild side. A stronger push of colder air moves in Wednesday night, leading to below normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures may fail to reach 70 for highs in parts of the region, especially Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, the high moves off the east, allowing temperatures to moderate across the region.

Tuesday’s rain will be beneficial, but we need a lot more. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few showers likely, mainly in the morning. High 77-84.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers may redevelop toward daybreak. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 67-74.

Friday: Sunshine continues. High 66-73.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

Weekend Outlook: September 9-12, 2022

We’ve got a fantastic late summer/early fall weekend coming up across the region.

The forecast for the next several days is actually fairly simple. High pressure will build into the region, and slowly drift eastward over the next several days. The result is sunshine each afternoon through Sunday, with temperatures gradually warming. Some of the smoke from the wildfires out West may reach our skies this weekend, resulting in hazy conditions at times. Some clouds will start to filter in on Sunday and Monday as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Some showers are possible on Monday, but it looks like most of the activity should hold off until Monday night or Tuesday.

Some of the models have rain move in on Monday, several others keep it dry. We’re leaning toward the drier ones for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

One other thing to keep in mind – Hurricane Earl will pass well south and east over the region over the next few days, but it will brush Bermuda. It will have one impact around here though – it will churn up some rough seas which will impact our coastal waters and beaches through the weekend. If you’re planning to head to the beach, there will be a high risk for rip currents, so use some caution. Offshore, small craft advisories are up for the coastal waters south and east of the Cape and Islands.

Forecast track for Hurricane Earl. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Friday: Early clouds, then becoming mostly sunny and hazy at times. High 74-81.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Hazy sunshine. High 79-86.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Partly sunny, hazy. High 79-86.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a shower. High 74-81.

Weekly Outlook: September 5-11, 2022

Some much-needed rain is on the way, but unfortunately much of it will fall on a holiday.

Despite last week’s rain, much of the region remains in severe or extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start the week off with a cold front stalling out across the region. North of the front we’ll have some showers today with temperatures likely staying in the 60s. Closer to the South Coast, temperatures may be in the 70s with less rain at first, but still plenty of clouds. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing some additional showers or a period of steady rain in late today and tonight. By Tuesday, the front starts to push off to the south, and the shower activity winds down during the afternoon. How much rain we’ll see is still a bit of question, even as it has already started across parts of the area. Some models are still showing the potential for 3-6 inches of rain (or more) across the region, while others show less. Either way, we need all the rain we can get to help put a dent into the ongoing drought and to help refill the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the region. With most places likely to see at least a period of heavy rain, Flood Watches have been issued for much of the region through later Tuesday.

Some models show the potential for very heavy rain across the region today and tomorrow. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Skies start to clear out Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in for Wednesday right into the weekend, with a return to dry weather. After a couple of chilly day Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will return to near to above normal levels for the rest of the week and the weekend, with many days featuring highs getting back into the 80s across parts of the area once again.

Normal high temperatures for early September are in the middle to upper 70s across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Occasional showers. High 64-71 north of the Mass Pike, 71-78 south of the Pike.

Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, some of the rain could be heavy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cool with showers gradually ending during the afternoon. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Overcast with a few lingering showers during the evening, then some late night clearing may develop. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 76-83.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

The Tropics Are Alive!

There was very little tropical activity around the world during July and August, but as the calendar has flipped to September and we approach the peak of Hurricane Season (especially in the Atlantic), several storms have developed.

There are now 4 active tropical cyclones around the world. Image provided by Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School.

The storm that is the biggest threat to land is actually in the Western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Hinnamnor is centered about 210 miles west-northwest of Okinawa, Japan, moving toward the north at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph. A little additional strengthening is possible today before a weakening trend begins. The forecast for Hinnamnor is for gradual weakening as it moves northeastward over the next 24 hours. The center will pass close to or across southeastern portions of South Korea on Monday as a typhoon, with top winds still in the 100-110 mph range. Storm surge will likely be confined to just a small portion of the South Korean coastline, but that area includes the city of Busan, the 2nd most populous city in South Korea. Busan is also the 6th busiest port in the world. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across much of the Korean Peninsula, but also could impact parts of eastern China (near Shanghai) today, and parts of Japan over the next few days.

Forecast track for Typhoon Hinnamnor. Image provided by the Korean Meteorological Administration.

In the Atlantic, after going nearly two months without a named system, we now have twostorms to track. Tropical Storm Earl developed Saturday night east of the Lesser Antilles. As of midday Sunday, Earl was centered about 85 miles north-northeast of St. Thomas, USVI, moving toward the northwest at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Earl is bringing some gusty winds and heavy downpours to parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Leeward Islands today and will continue to do so into Monday as it drifts toward the northwest and eventually north. The forecast for Earl calls for a turn more toward the north on Monday, with gradual strengthening expected. Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday and could become a rather potent storm by mid-to-late week. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Earl to eventually turn more toward the northeast, heading out over open water southeast of Bermuda. However, as is usually the case with tropical systems, this is hardly a lock. An upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the central Atlantic is expected to help turn Earl toward the northeast and out to sea. If that trough moves a little faster, Earl may not make the northeast turn, at which point, the track becomes highly uncertain. Another trough of low pressure will be moving toward the East Coast while a ridge of high pressure settles in across the western Atlantic. This could increase the threat to Bermuda before the next trough moves in and kicks Earl out to sea. If you’re wondering about whether Earl could threat the East Coast, it is highly unlikely at this point, but the odds are not zero. A few members of the various Ensemble forecasts do show a significantly more westward track to Earl, but the vast majority still show a track out to sea (or near Bermuda then out to sea).

Most of the various ensemble members show an out to sea track for Earl, but there are a few that threat Bermuda. Iage provided by Tomer Burg.

Out in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle, the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic, is strengthening this afternoon. As of midday, Danielle had maximum sustained winds near 80 mph and was centered nearly 1000 miles west of the Azores. Danielle is nearly stationary right now, but it is expected to start moving toward the northeast and then east over the next few days. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Monday, but after that it will start moving over cooler water, and a gradual weakening trend will begin. Danielle is expected to become extratropical later this week, and could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the British Isles as a strong extratropical system toward the end of the week.

Satellite loop of Hurricane Danielle. Loop provided by NOAA.

Finally, Tropical Depression 12-E has developed off the southwest coast of Mexico. As of midday, it was centered about 225 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, moving toward the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The forecast calls for steady strengthening, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and a hurricane early this week. A turn more toward the northwest is expected early this week, and the system could threaten parts of the Baja Peninsula toward the latter half of the week. By the end of the week, the system, or what’s left of it, could bring some heavy rainfall into parts of the Southwest and Southern California, enhancing what has already been a very active monsoon season.

Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Depression 12-E. Image provided by WeatherBell.

With the climatological peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic about a week away, and the peak of the Eastern Pacific season encompassing most of September, additional storms are likely to form over the next few weeks.

Weekend Outlook: September 2-5, 2022

Labor Day Weekend starts off with some fantastic early September weather, but it may not end that way.

High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday with generally dry and cool conditions. Clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling tonight, which may allow some of the normally cooler locations to drop into the 40s. As the high slides offshore on Saturday, temperatures and humidity levels will start to rise a little bit. Sunday looks even warmer and a bit more humid, but with a cold front approaching we may see some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A few more showers or storms are possible on Labor Day before the front pushes offshore and stalls out. We should not that some of the forecast models are painting a rather wet picture for late Sunday and Monday. We’re not buying that at the moment. Things could obviously change, and we’ll re-evaluate that when we issue our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but don’t go cancelling any Labor Day plans just yet.

Some models show the potential for heavy rain late Sunday and Labor Day. We’re not buying it. Sure, there will probably be some rain, but not the outrageous amounts other models show. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In other news, we have our first named “tropical” system in nearly two months, but it’s not exactly in the tropics. Tropical Storm Danielle is located about 950 miles west of the Azores, drifting toward the east at 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 60, and the forecast calls for strengthening. Danielle could become the first hurricane of the year in the Atlantic on Friday. It is not a threat to any land areas.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Danielle. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Clear and cool. Low 48-55.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79. Offshore: Northeast 5-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85. Offshore: East 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 81-88. Offshore: South 5-10 knots, seas 2 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 59-66.

Monday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 70-77. Offshore: East 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.