We’ve had an extended stretch of relatively mild weather for January, but that’s about to change.
Temperatures will remain mild compared to normal today, but we’ll have plenty of clouds once again as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the region. It may produce a sprinkle or flurry in spots, but for the most part, we’ll remain dry. We’ll clear out tonight, then Tuesday will feature some sunshine and cooler temperatures as high pressure builds in. Some clouds will likely develop, because that’s just the way things have been this winter – we can’t seem to get a completely clear day, even when it looks like we should.
Another weak disturbances moves through Tuesday night and early Wednesday with more clouds and possibly a few snow showers, but even colder air will start to filter in behind this system. Some clearing is possible Wednesday afternoon as the system moves away, but another quickly system follows for Thursday into Friday. This may produce some snow showers, but right now, we’re only expecting light accumulations, if that. That system will strengthen as it moves into Atlantic Canada, producing gusty northwest winds around here over the weekend as high pressure builds in, which will result in much cooler weather moving in. It does look like the colder weather will hang around through much of next week, so it will start to feel like winter once again.
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy, chance for a sprinkle or a flurry, breezy. High 39-46.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 20-27.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 33-40.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few flurries possible. Low 22-29.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, maybe a few flurries in the morning and a few afternoon sunny breaks, breezy. High 29-36.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. High 28-35.
Friday: More clouds than sun. High 35-42.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and colder. High 29-36.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 27-34.
Another fairly quiet week is coming up across the region, but don’t expect the dry spell to last too much longer.
We start the week on a chilly note with high pressure sliding offshore. A weak disturbance will spread some clouds in, but little precipitation will accompany it. The middle of the week will feature high pressure at the surface, but with some additional upper-level disturbances swinging through, we’ll have periods of clouds at times, but little to no precipitation, and temperatures that are near to above normal for the middle of January.
By Friday, we’ll start to see some changes as a fairly strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. That will keep us on the mild side of it, with some rain possible during Friday and Saturday before a cold front finally pushes through. It won’t be raining the entire time, but it does appear as though our extended stretch of dry weather will finally end. How much rain we’ll get is still up for debate, as the models aren’t all on the same page at the moment. Cooler air settles in behind that front on Sunday.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 34-41.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 20-27.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 35-42.
Tuesday night: Variably cloudy. Low 20-27.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 36-43.
Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 40-47.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers possible late in the day and at night. High 43-50.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers, mainly in the morning. High 40-47.
Sunday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 33-40.
We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up, but that doesn’t mean sunshine and mild weather the entire time.
The storm system that brought us some rain and snow yesterday and last night will slowly pull away from the region today, but we’ll still have plenty of clouds, and maybe a few more showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. By Tuesday, the storm will stall out near Atlantic Canada, but the flow around it may help produce a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers, especially across eastern parts of the region. By Wednesday, the system pulls away and high pressure builds in with dry and seasonably cool conditions into Friday.
By Friday night, low pressure will be moving off the North Carolina coastline and headed off toward the northeast. Right now, it looks like this system will pass too far to the south and east to have any impact on us, except possibly Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, but it’s still 5 days away and things can change, so we’ll keep an eye on it. Once that system pulls away on Saturday, high pressure builds back in for next weekend.
Monday: Plenty of clouds, some showers are possible across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, mainly in the morning, a few sunny breaks are possible well inland during the afternoon. High 35-42.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few rain or snow showers are possible in eastern areas. Low 24-31.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few more rain or snow showers in eastern areas. High 32-39.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 33-40.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine. High 36-43.
Friday: Sunshine dimmed by increasing afternoon high clouds. High 33-40.
Saturday: Clouds early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. High 31-38.
We’ve reached the final days of 2020, but there may still be a little mayhem on the horizon.
We start the week out on a rather mild note. Low pressure will head up the St. Lawrence Valley today, bringing in some clouds but also milder weather. There could be a shower or two, but the bulk of the precipitation associated with this storm will stay to our north and west. The storm drags a cold front across the region at night, putting an end to our brief mild spell. Breezy and colder conditions settle in for Tuesday as high pressure starts to build back in. Wednesday also looks to be on the cold side, but should be less windy, so it won’t feel as cold.
This brings us to the final day of a year that most of us are all too happy to see end. Another low pressure area passes to our north and west, with milder conditions once again and some rain showers, though it does look like it should be dry for midnight if you are planning to be out and about. However, the cold front trailing that system will likely stall out near or just south of the region while high pressure tries to build in from the north early on New Year’s Day. Another low pressure area will start heading toward the Midwest that day as well. The front to our south will try to head back northward as a warm front, but with high pressure to the north, cold air may remain in place at the surface, especially across the interior. As the precipitation starts to move in, we may have warm air aloft and cold air at the surface, which would be a recipe for freezing rain. Obviously, being this far out, things will likely change, but we could be looking at icing, possibly some significant icing, across the interior. This system will take it’s time moving toward the region, so even though the warmer air should eventually win out and change everything to plain rain, the rain may continue into Saturday before winding down. High pressure builds in on Sunday with drier and cooler weather. We should have some additional clarity on this situation later this week in our Weekend Outlook, which may be published on Wednesday again.
Monday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, just a slight chance for a shower. High 43-50.
Monday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, some clouds around during the afternoon, breezy. High 29-36.
Tuesday night: Clear and chilly. Low 14-21, though some of the normally colder locations could drop into the single digits.
Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine. High 33-40.
New Year’s Eve: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 44-51.
New Year’s Day: Cloudy with a chance for rain near the coast, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, or freezing rain is possible inland. Precipitation should gradually change to rain inland as we head through the overnight hours. High 38-45.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 43-50.
Hope you enjoyed the 60-degree temperatures on Sunday, because changes are coming. It’s going to snow this week, likely more than once for many of us.
A cold front moved across the region overnight and is now south of us. Low pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and ride along that frontal system today. Precipitation will move in towards midday and continue through the afternoon, ending in the evening. Temperatures will be near or above freezing, so we’ll see a mix of rain and snow, likely changing over to snow before ending in many areas as colder air filters in behind the system. We’re not expecting much accumulation, mainly an inch or so, and mainly south of the Mass Pike. A few places could see up to 2 inches in heavier bursts, but overall this isn’t a big deal. However, since it will fall during the afternoon, it could make a mess of the afternoon commute, so keep that in mind if you are not working from home. North of the Mass Pike, we’re only looking at some flurries, if that, with the ground getting coated in some locations.
That storm will move into Atlantic Canada on Tuesday, and strengthen into a powerful storm system. Gusty northwest winds behind the storm will usher much cooler air in for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves into southeastern Canada. This will become important as we head into later Wednesday and Thursday as the next storm system moves towards the area.
As you’ve no doubt heard by now, a rather strong storm system will impact the East Coast later Wednesday into Thursday. With high pressure to the north, we’ll have plenty of cold air in place, so anything that does fall will almost certainly fall in the form of snow. As the storm strengthens, it will produce gusty winds in some areas, which combined with the high astronomical tides, could result in some coastal flooding, especially east and northeast-facing locations. Beyond that, there’s a lot of uncertainty. That storm that moved into Atlantic Canada will not move too much, and it will have an impact on the track our mid-week storm takes. Another factor will be the high pressure area to our north. It will try to send cool and dry air southward into the region. This will likely result in a sharp cutoff of the precipitation, going from heavy snow to virtually no snow over a relatively small area. Where that cutoff sets up is also still in question. The models, while in general agreement that a powerful storm will move off the Atlantic Coast and south of New England, differ on some of the finer details, which have an enormous impact on the forecast. It’s still WAY too early to pin down any specifics, so we won’t bother to attempt it. We’ll just say that the potential exists for a significant snowstorm across the region from late Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond that, we’ll offer more details in a special blog post on Tuesday.
Behind the storm, high pressure builds back in for Friday and Saturday with dry and chilly conditions. If there’s fresh snow on the ground, some places could get quite chilly at night, especially Thursday night and Friday night. By Sunday, the high moves offshore and temperatures will start to moderate. However, another system may bring in some rain or snow. We’ll worry about that one after we get through the first two.
Monday: Cloudy with rain or mixed precipitation developing around midday, eventually changing to light snow by late afternoon. High 32-39.
Monday night: Light snow ends in the evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 23-30.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 28-35.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds move in late at night. Low 12-19.
Wednesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow possible late in the day and at night. High 24-31.
Thursday: Cloudy and windy with snow likely, ending during the afternoon. High 24-31.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 27-34.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 37-44.
We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up across the region with a moderating trend as well.
We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with dry and cool conditions. We’ll start off sunny, but high clouds will start to stream in during the afternoon ahead of low pressure moving off the Carolina coast. That system will pass well to our south and east on Tuesday, but the flow around it, moving over the still relatively mild ocean, could help generate a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers, mainly across Cape Cod and east-coastal Massachusetts, especially coastal Plymouth County and Cape Ann. That system pulls away Tuesday night, but another weak upper-level disturbance swings through on Wednesday. Moisture will be limited with this system, but again, a few rain or snow showers can’t be ruled out, mainly well north and west of Boston. High pressure builds in again for Thursday and Friday with generally dry weather and moderating temperatures.
Things start to get active again next weekend. Most of the models show a low pressure area heading into the Great Lakes and then southeastern Canada. This would result in a warmup around here with some rain likely as the storm drags a frontal system toward the region. However, most of these same models showed a similar scenario for the storm we just had on Saturday. Also, some of the members of the various ensembles show the potential for a secondary area of low pressure to develop south of New England, a common occurrence with low pressure areas that pass well to our west. If this were to happen, it would result in the warm air never making it in here. Now, this doesn’t mean we’ll be in for another snowstorm. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t get well into the 50s with more rain. Obviously, things can and will change as we head through the week. Consider our forecast for next weekend to be “low confidence” right now.
Monday: Sunshine fades behind thickening afternoon clouds. High 32-39.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few flurries may develop late at night near the east coast. Low 19-26.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, a few rain or snow showers possible near the coast. High 29-36.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17-24.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower, favoring areas north and west of Boston. High 34-41.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 40-47.
Friday: Sunshine dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 40-40.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly late in the day and at night. High 47-54.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance for more showers, mainly early. High 49-56.
Our storm is well underway, and we’ve got some changes to the forecast.
In the big picture, not a lot has changed this morning. Low pressure is just east of the Delmarva Peninsula this morning, and it will head northeastward today, intensifying rapidly as it passes close to or over Nantucket this afternoon, before heading into the Gulf of Maine tonight. Rain has overspread the region this morning, and has been heavy at times, while temperatures have dropped into the middle 30s to lower 40s. Across the higher elevations of Worcester County, the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, and the Berkshires, the rain has changed over to snow already.
Most of this is in line with the forecast we posted yesterday, the timing is just a little quicker. There still isn’t a lot of cold air to work with at the surface, but the storm is quite intense, and the heavier precipitation is dragging the cold air down from aloft. This will allow the rain to change to snow as the day goes on across much of the remainder of the region from west to east. Temperatures likely will stay in the lower 30s, so it will be a heavy, wet snow, and if the intensity lightens up, it could flip back to rain in spots. This could mean the difference between several inches of snow in one spot, and much less in a nearby location. Along the coast, where water temperatures are still in the 40s, it will take a little longer to flip to snow, thanks to the moderating influence of the marine air.
We’ll also have some strong winds to deal with later today, especially along the coastline. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been posted for parts of the region. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph or more are expected, mainly this afternoon and evening as the storm center passes near and just east of the region. Some gusts to 60 mph or more can’t be ruled out, especially across coastal Plymouth County along with Cape Cod and the Islands.
Here’s where there is still some unknowns. There are likely to be bands of very heavy snow that develop as the system really gets cranked up. These could produce snowfall totals of 1-3 inches per hour. Where they set up is extremely difficult to predict in advance, and these bands could be as little as 5-10 miles wide. We’ve already had one band of very heavy rain setup from Worcester northeastward to the Merrimack Valley this morning. The western edge of this band changed to snow in the higher elevations in Worcester County. Similar bands are likely to form later today. Places just outside these bands could see significantly less snow these spots just a few miles down the road that get stuck under the bands. This obviously complicates the snowfall forecast.
Here’s our updated thoughts on the changeover timing:
Mid/Late morning: The higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire Late Morning/Midday: Southern New Hampshire Midday/Early Afternoon: Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast Early/Mid Afternoon: MetroWest and the North Shore as well as Northern Rhode Island Late Afternoon/Early Evening: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence and Southeastern Massachusetts.
Everything should wind down and end by midnight as the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine and pulls away from the area. As for snowfall, there is still a wide range among many of the models, so forecast confidence is still below average.
Having said all of that, here’s our best estimate right now for snowfall:
Dusting (if that): Cape Cod and the Islands 1-3″: Southeastern Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island 3-5″: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence 4-7″: North Shore/New Hampshire Seacoast (heaviest inland) 5-9″: Merrimack Valley/Southern New Hampshire/MetroWest/Northern Rhode Island 6-12″: Worcester County/Southwestern New Hampshire
Some of the hills in Central Massachusetts and Southwestern New Hampshire, especially above 1000 feet, will likely see more than a foot.
Once the system passes by, we’ll have drier and cooler weather for the next several days. The only possible fly in the ointment is another system that is expected to pass well south and east of the region on Tuesday. Right now, it should be too far offshore to have much, if any, impact on our area, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
It won’t feel like the last day of November as we start the week on a windy, warm, and wet note.
A strong storm system will move up the Appalachians today, passing west of the region. This will allow unseasonably mild air into the area on gusty south to southeast winds. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected, with some gusts of 50-60 mph (or higher) possible, especially near the coast. Temperatures will get well into the 50s across the region today, with many areas, especially in eastern Massachusetts possibly topping 60 by late in the day. The warm weather will be accompanied by rain, some of which may be heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. By the time everything winds down at night, much of the region will have received 1-2 inches of rain, with some heavier amounts possible.
As the system moves into southeastern Canada on Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. The day will start off mild, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s during the morning, but they’ll drop during the afternoon behind the front. A few more showers are also possible, but nothing as heavy as what we’re expecting today.
By Wednesday, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast and southeastern Canada, bringing much cooler air in, though it will still be close to normal for early December. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around, and a pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out, maybe even a snow flurry. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine. Clouds return Thursday night and Friday along with milder weather ahead of the next storm system.
Next weekend looks unsettled, but pinning down specifics at this point is an effort in futility. The models have performed relatively poorly beyond a few days lately, and there are significant differences in their solutions for next weekend as well. For now, we’ll just go with unsettled conditions, and the chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday, but there is a possibility that the entire weekend won’t be unsettled. There’s also the possibility that all of the precipitation that falls wouldn’t be just rain. It will be early December, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise. We hope to have much more clarity on this when we write our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain, possibly heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm as well. High 55-62.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds, showers taper off toward midnight. Temperatures hold steady overnight.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. High 39-46.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, some high clouds may start to stream in late in the day. High 41-48.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late in the day. High 47-54.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 43-50.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 42-49.
We’re going to put a few dents in that drought this week, as we’ll have a few storms systems to contend with, but it looks like they’ll be mostly rain, with one of them on Thanksgiving Day. Notice that we said “mostly rain”, as we could have some issues Wednesday night, especially in southern New Hampshire.
We start the week off on a wet note as low pressure passes north and west of the region, providing us with a rainy start to the day. Temperatures will be on the mild side this morning, but don’t get used to it. A cold front will cross the region by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but behind it, gusty winds will usher much cooler air back in as skies clear out, leading to a chilly night tonight.
High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. It will still be breezy early on as today’s low pressure system continues to pull away, but winds should die down during the afternoon as the high continues to build in. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, we’ll have another chilly night, but some high clouds may start to move in late at night, which would prevent temperatures from tumbling too much. Those high clouds will be in advance of a warm front that will approach the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers. This could set up a tricky situation during the late afternoon and evening across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The warm front may have trouble moving northward during the day, and with chilly air in place and a little bit of precipitation possible, it could fall in the form of a little freezing drizzle, especially in southern New Hampshire, which could result in some slippery conditions Wednesday evening. This is a scenario that happens quite often during the fall and winter, and the models usually handle it poorly, or miss it completely, as they usually overestimate how quickly the warmer air will move in and how far north it can get. We’ve seen the models blow this type of forecast countless times, and the setup is there for it to happen again.
That next system brings in more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Right now, it looks like most of the rain will be in the morning, but there are still some timing differences among the models, so showers may linger into the afternoon, and possibly even the evening. High pressure builds in behind that system with drier and cooler weather again on Friday, though a few showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region.
Next weekend also has some questions, as the models all have differing solutions. Some models want to bring a weak system through late Saturday with some showers, then have high pressure build back in on Sunday, with another system potentially bringing in some rain next Monday. Others keep high pressure in control for much of the weekend, but have the next system move in at some point late Sunday or Sunday night. They also differ on the track of that system, which has significant implications for temperatures on Sunday. So, our forecast for next weekend is very-low confidence at this point, and may end up significantly different when we issue our weekend outlook (which will be on Wednesday this week instead of the normal Thursday).
Monday: Breezy with showers and some steadier rain this morning, possibly a rumble of thunder as well, ending by early afternoon, then skies start to clear out by evening. High 54-61 in the morning, but temperatures may drop pretty quickly during the afternoon.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 27-34.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy in the morning. High 37-44.
Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, high clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 19-26.
Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, possibly some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire during the evening or at night. High 36-43 north of the Mass Pike, 44-51 south of the Pike.
Thanksgiving: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, ending during the afternoon. High 42-49 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 50-57 elsewhere.
Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56.
Sunday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.
After last night’s squall line, conditions will be significantly quieter for most of this week.
High pressure builds into the region today with breezy and cooler conditions as a cold front continues to push offshore. We’ll have some clouds popping up in the afternoon as cooler air moves in aloft, but we should remain dry. Another cold front will move through late Tuesday. This one may produce a few rain or snow showers, but for most of us it will pass through with little fanfare.
Behind that front, much colder air will settle in for Wednesday. Temperatures likely won’t reach 40, with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens. As winds die down Wednesday night, low temperatures will drop into the teens across much of the region. Thursday will still be chilly, but with high pressure sliding offshore, temperatures will start to moderate a bit. The moderating trend continues into the weekend, as temperatures climb back above normal for the latter half of November.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a late-day rain or snow shower. High 40-47.
Tuesday night: Clearing, colder. Low 21-28.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 29-36.