Some typical summertime weather is expected for the first full week of the last month of meteorological summer.
Heavy rainfall is possible across the interior today, with some flash flooding possible. Image provided by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
The week starts off on a wet note with a cold front approaching the region. A warm and humid airmass will be in place with gusty southwest winds at times, especially across eastern Massachusetts. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely through the morning, some of which could be locally heavy. Some pockets of flash flooding are possible, as the ground remains fairly saturated from recent rainfall, which has pretty much taken care of the drought. We’re still in a long-term rainfall deficit, but the drought itself is essentially gone. The showers will taper off, then we may see some sunny breaks develop. As the cold front moves in during the afternoon, it will trigger a second round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on how much sun we get, some of those storms could become severe.
Severe weather is possible across the interior this afternoon. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
The front moves offshore tonight then high pressure builds in with drier weather for Tuesday. High pressure then sets up residence off the East Coast, resulting in very warm to hot and humid weather from Wednesday through the weekend. As is typical of a warm and humid airmass in the summer, we’ll see a daily chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but any of these storms could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Above normal temperatures are expected for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Morning showers and thunderstorms, some may produce heavy downpours, then some sunny breaks develop. Showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the afternoon, breezy, very humid. High 74-81.
Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, less humid. High 79-86.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84-91.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 83-90.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
This does not look like a good week for a vacation.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
We start the week off with dry and seasonably warm conditions as warm front moves across the region, bring some clouds in. Those clouds will thicken up at night as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the system on Tuesday, but as an upper-level low moves into the Midwest, the surface low pressure system will redevelop over the Mid-Atlantic states and head northeastward. The result is a rainy day on Wednesday, possibly quite a bit of rain. Some models show the potential for several inches of rain, resulting in flooding for some areas. The system will be slow to move out on Thursday with more showers likely, ending in the evening. Skies finally start to clear out on Friday the high pressure brings drier and milder air for the weekend.
Many of the models are showing the potential for heavy rainfall later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine fades behind increasing high clouds. High 79-86, cooler near the coast.
Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Scattered showers. Low 60-67.
Wednesday: Breezy with rain likely. High 69-76.
Wednesday night: Rain tapers off to showers. Low 59-66.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers. High 70-77.
Much of the upcoming week should feature some rather nice weather.
Temperatures will be near to a little below normal over the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com
The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping the smoke off to our south, and giving us sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. As the high moves offshore, Tuesday will be similar, though we’ll see temperatures a little warmer, and a few more clouds, especially late in the day. A warm front will be heading our way, with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of it late Tuesday night into part of Wednesday. Wednesday should be much more humid as well, with southwest winds behind the front bringing the humidity back in. A cold front will move in late in the day, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of that front, some of the storms could be rather potent. High pressure then builds in with drier weather for the end of the week and start of the weekend. Humidity levels start to increase again late in the weekend as another front begins heading our way.
Beneficial rain is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, especially south of the Mass Pike. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.
Monday night: Clear during the evening, increasing clouds overnight. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, breezy. High 75-82.
Tuesday night: Plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms taper off early, becoming partly sunny, breezy, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 80-87.
Wednesday night: Showers may linger across parts of Cape Cod, gradual clearing elsewhere. Low 58-65.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 74-81.
Heat and humidity will return this week, but not to the extent that we experienced recently.
Heat returns to the region on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com
High pressure slides offshore today, with increasing temperatures and humidity levels. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but they’ll be few and far between. Tuesday looks even hotter, except along the South Coast and Cape Cod, with southwest winds act as a seabreeze. A cold front moves through early Wednesday with little fanfare, but it will bring some drier air into the region. It will remain hot, and with northwest winds, the heat will get all the way down to the South Coast. Another front moves through on Thursday, possibly producing a shower or thunderstorm, but most places will remain dry, which means we don’t get much drought relief. Cooler air settles in for Friday. The weekend is a bit uncertain at this point. A low pressure system may move out of the Great Lakes and towards New England with some showers and thunderstorms at some point, but the timing, and whether the system even materializes, is still a question.
A system may bring in some rain late Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, breezy. High 82-89, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, humid. High 90-97, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, muggy. Low 73-80.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, not as humid. High 88-95.
Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, breezy. High 84-91.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 61-68.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87.
Saturday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 78-85.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.
You’ve heard us use the phrase “When in drought, leave it out” in relation to rainfall plenty of times. There is a corollary to that phrase – “Droughts end in floods”, which we’re going to use for the next few days.
Excessive rainfall is likely today into early Tuesday. Images provided by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University.
The front that brought an end to the heat Saturday night has stalled out south of New England, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it over the next day or so. This will result in periods of rain, some of it heavy at times later today into a good chunk of Tuesday, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Many of the forecast models are showing the potential for 2-4 inches of rain, with amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Pinpointing where these tropical downpours will be the heaviest is a fool’s errand, but that much rain in a short period of time, even with the ongoing drought, will result in areas of flooding. That’s why Flood Watches have been issues for much of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, as this is where the heaviest rain is expected. The question is, how much rain falls north of the Mass Pike? While there are some models that bring the heavy rain all the way into southern New Hampshire, many of them have the amounts taper off quickly north of the Pike, with little rainfall once you get into southern New Hampshire. With the cloudcover and rainfall, temperatures will be quite cool, with many places staying in the 60s, especially on Tuesday, The showers wind down Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in with gradually improving conditions on Wednesday, though temperatures will remain below normal. Very warm weather returns for Thursday as high pressure moves offshore, with some places getting back to 90. This heat will be short-lived, as another cold front moves through on Friday with some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure brings cooler and drier weather in for Saturday, with temperatures turning a bit warmer again on Sunday.
Many of the models are forecasting some very heavy rainfall, especially south of the Mass Pike. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, mostly south of the Mass Pike. High 69-76.
Monday night: Rain likely, heavy at times south of the Mass Pike. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Rain during the morning, tapering off to showers in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Tuesday night: Showers ending during the evening, some clearing may start late at night, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82, a little cooler near the coast.
Wednesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 85-92, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Friday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 83-90.
The hype train has left the station and is barreling down the tracks at high speed. Unlike winter, when the hype is all about an impending snowstorm, this time, it’s about heat and humidity.
Some warm and muggy nights are likely later this week with lows in the 70s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is going to set up shop across the eastern part of the nation later this week. This will result in very hot and humid weather for much of the eastern half of the nation, especially during the latter half of the week. Around here, it’s going to get hot, but will we get the extreme heat that many in the media are already proclaiming is a lock? We’re not quite so confident.
A ridge of high pressure will bring heat to the eastern half of the nation this week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Before we get there, let’s talk about the first part of the week, which starts off with a rather nice day today with high pressure building in. We’ll have sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and moderate humidity levels. That high will move offshore on Tuesday, and a warm front extending from low pressure over the nation’s mid-section will approach our area. As the warm front moves in, some showers and thunderstorms are likely late in the day and into the evening. Some of these storms could be quite strong, with damaging winds and heavy downpours the main threats. We need all the rain we can get with the ongoing drought, but too much in a short-period results in areas of flooding.
Thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday, but severe weather should stay to our north and west, Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hot and humid air then settles in for Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures likely top 90 away from the South Coast on Wednesday, then Thursday and Friday appear to be the hottest days right now, but how hot will it get? Many forecast models are showing temperatures near or over 100, and all of the Facebook Forecasters (as well as many in the local media) have been quick to post these maps like it is locked in and a virtual certainty. Well, we’re here to tell you that it isn’t. Not yet at least. Not every model is showing widespread triple-digit heat. Seabreezes will keep coastal areas cooler. There’s also something that the models don’t handle that well that will have an impact. In this pattern, a common occurrence is for thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, then ride along the jet stream over the top of that ridge, then dive southeastward towards New York and New England. These clusters usually end up around here late at night or first thing in the morning. Sometimes, it’s just weakening storms, sometimes they remain quite potent, even severe at times. The models are notoriously bad at picking these out more than 24 hours or so in advance. If the timing is a little off, and the clouds and/or showers hang around a little later into the morning, then it’s not going to get nearly as hot as the models are currently showing. It’s also worth mentioning that there won’t be a lot of relief at night, especially Wednesday Night and Thursday night, when temperatures will likely not drop below 70, and urban areas may not drop below 80.
Could some places reach 100 on Thursday? It’s possible, but not likely, at least for now. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As we get to the end of the week and the weekend, another complicating factor is a backdoor cold front dropping down from the north. Behind it, relatively cooler and drier air will settle in, with heat and humidity remaining in place to the south. When will this front move through? How far south does it get before it stalls out? Will it retreat northward as a warm front again before the weekend is over, bringing the hot and humid air back in? Will there be some showers and thunderstorms along this front? All of these factors result in a highly uncertain temperature forecast for later Friday and into the weekend. Since it’s Fourth of July weekend, there are lots of outdoor plans being made, and the forecast is an important part of that. For now, plan for it to be very warm, and keep an eye to the sky (or the radar), but be aware that the forecast still can change.
Will it still be hot for the Fourth of July or will it cool off a little? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Bottom line: Yes, it will get hot and humid for at least a few days later this week, but how hot and for how long remains uncertain, despite what you may see or read elsewhere. We’ll likely do a special blog post about this on Tuesday or Wednesday when things are a little more clear (hopefully), in addition to our normal Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Wednesday through Friday is the most likely time that we may see significant heat and humidity. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norton, MA.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, becoming breezy, chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 83-90, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, tapering off overnight, some late-night clearing. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Low 68-75.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 93-100, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear. Low 70-77.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92-99, cooler across Cape Cod.
Fourth of July: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 86-93, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
“When in drought, leave it out”. You’ve heard us repeat this numerous times. We’re in a drought, and have been for a while. Many recent storm systems have failed to bring significant rainfall to the region. That will not be the case with the next storm.
Rainfall totals over the past 6 months are well below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and towards southern New England. With the system expected to pass close to or just south of the region, the associated warm front will also remain south of the area. This will reduce or likely eliminate the threat for severe weather. There will be some thunderstorms, but we’re just looking at periods of rain, potentially heavy at times. The rain will move in by afternoon, and continue into the evening, but likely doesn’t end until Tuesday morning or early afternoon. While most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain for at least parts of the region, they still do not agree at this point on where the heaviest rain will fall, or how much will actually fall.
Most of the models show the potential for heavy rain for at least part of the region later today and Tuesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Once the system pulls away, high pressure builds in with drier weather for Wednesday into Thursday. Another frontal system will bring in some showers and thunderstorms for Thursday night and Friday, then high pressure returns with dry and warm weather for the weekend.
Temperatures should be mostly above normal for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy with rain developing by early afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly a thunderstorm. The rain may be heavy at times. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies with showers gradually ending from west to east in the afternoon, some heavy downpours are still possible at times. High 69-76.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Low 57-64.
Thursday: Morning sun, then increasing late-day clouds. High 78-85.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers possible late at night. Low 60-67.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.
Astronomical summer begins this coming Sunday at 4:24AM, but summer weather will be here for much of the week.
Drier air will move in today with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and upper 40s. Image provided by weathermodels.com
We start off the week with a cold front pushing offshore this morning, taking the last of the showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind that front, high pressure builds in with seasonably mild temperatures, lower humidity, and a good amount of sunshine for today and Tuesday. By Wednesday, we’ll be watching a low pressure area heading into the Great Lakes. It will send a warm front our way at night, with some clouds moving in ahead of it, but the day itself will be mostly dry and seasonably warm. A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the warm front Wednesday night, but the more noticeable effect will be an increase in humidity levels once again. Thursday could be an active day as low pressure moves into southern Canada, dragging a cold front across the region. With a warm and humid airmass in place, the front could trigger showers and thunderstorms during the daytime, with the potential for some of them to become strong to severe later in the day. Right now it’s just potential, but the ingredients are forecast by some of the models to be in place for some severe storms. This is something we’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few days. High pressure builds in behind the front with cooler and drier conditions for Friday and the weekend.
Drought conditions continue to worsen, and little help is expected this week. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Monday: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end early, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 78-85.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 75-82.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a late-night shower. Low 55-62.
Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, becoming humid, showers and thunderstorms developing. High 76-83, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening. Low 61-68.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, not as humid. High 79-86.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 77-84.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.
Some typical June weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Temperatures should be well above normal this week. Image provided by weathermodels.com
We start the week off on a cool note with high pressure building in from Canada. We’ll have plenty of sunshine today, but east to northeast winds off the still cool Atlantic will keep temperatures on the cool side today, especially near the coastline. As the high slides southward on Tuesday and anchors itself off the East Coast, a ridge of high pressure will start build in aloft, resulting in a warming trend. With sunshine continuing on Tuesday, southwest winds will help many locations top 80 away from the South Coast and Cape Cod. Much of the remainder of the week will feature hot and increasingly humid conditions, with a daily chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances cross the region. The exception could be later Thursday into part of Friday, when we may see a backdoor cold front trying to bring in some cooler air, especially along the coast. This is far from a certainty, and even if it does occur, it would lift northward again by Saturday, allowing the heat and humidity to return. A stronger cold front may begin to move in from the west on Sunday.
Friday could be quite toasty, but it also could be considerably cooler near the east coast. Imaged provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 73-80, a little cooler along the coast and across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 81-88, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 57-64.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, a few showers or thunderstorms possible during the evening. Low 60-67.
Thursday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod, temperatures could turn cooler during the afternoon across eastern areas.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Friday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower possible. High 83-90, possibly cooler across eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny, afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Meteorological Summer starts today (as does Hurricane Season), but it’s still astronomical Spring, and today will feel like it.
We could be well into the 80s by the end of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
An upper-level low pressure system will remain in place across the Northeast for a couple more days, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of where they should be at this time of year. A few lingering showers are possible this morning as a surface low pressure area pulls away, with some clearing in the afternoon. Tuesday will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will quickly develop during the morning, with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with dry and warmer weather for Wednesday through Friday. We do need to keep an eye on a developing ocean storm, but at this point, it looks to remain too far offshore to have any impacts here. By Saturday, we’ll be watching a cold front starting to approach the region. That front may bring some showers and cooler conditions for Saturday night and Sunday, but the exact timing of both the front and the showers is still a bit of a question that we hope to have a better handle on when it is time for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The models do not agree on what will happen on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Lingering showers end in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 57-64, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then clouds pop up with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 47-54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 71-78, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 78-85, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 73-80.
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