Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: August 1-7, 2022

The final month of meteorological summer begins the way the last one ended – with more warm weather.

We’re actually starting the week off with some clouds, and possibly a few showers near the South Coast as a weak disturbance passes south of the region this morning. However, skies should clear out during the afternoon, with a warm and humid afternoon expected. Tuesday looks even warmer and more humid, but with a weak trough of low pressure moving through, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Wednesday looks to be another hot day, but it may not be quite as humid. Thursday certainly looks like the hottest day of this stretch, with some of the models are showing the potential for parts of the region to reach 100 degrees again on Thursday. We’re not quite sure it’ll be that hot, but some upper 90s are certainly plausible.

Rainfall is well below normal across the region since the start of April. The little rain we’ll get today and Tuesday won’t help much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Friday is the uncertain day of the week. We’ll have a cold front crossing the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be determined by how quickly the front moves in, and how much cloudcover there is. The potential is there for much of the region to top 90 once again with muggy conditions. The next question is, how far south does the front get before stalling out. This will determine when we clear out on Saturday or the clouds linger along with the chance for more showers. Either way, temperatures should be cooler. High pressure should build in for Sunday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.

Friday could end up as another hot day across the region, but not all of the models agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers near the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 82-89.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 85-92.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 92-99, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and at night. High 86-93.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, lingering showers possible in the morning. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 85-92.

Weekly Outlook: July 25-31, 2022

The final week of July will not be as hot as last week was, but there will still be episodes of humidity to deal with.

After Sunday’s record-breaking heat, which topped 100 in places, today won’t be as hot with a cold front approaching the region. We’ll have plenty of cloud cover with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Some of the storms could be quite potent, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours. There is even a risk for a tornado. While the threat of severe weather exists from Maine to Virginia, around here, we think it’ll be mostly north and west of I-95 where the strongest storms occur, as usual. We could still see some strong storms in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, so don’t let your guard down if you’ll be in that neck of the woods during the afternoon.

Severe weather looks like a decent bet across the Northeast today. Image provided Pivotal Weather.

While temperatures will be “cooler” today they’ll still be in the 80s, possibly near 90 in spots if we can get enough sunshine in the morning. Of course, if we get some sunshine, that will also help to fuel some stronger thunderstorms. It’ll also be a much more humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s, so it’ll feel nearly as hot as Sunday was. As a result, the National Weather Service extended the Heat Advisory for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island until 5pm today.

It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees early this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The cold front moves offshore tonight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. Temperatures should still reach the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 50s and lower 60s. The next system approaches on Thursday, so we’ll turn warmer and more humid once again, with some showers and thunderstorms likely late Thursday into Friday. At this time, it doesn’t look like the threat for severe weather is as significant as today, but it’s still a few days away, so we’ll keep monitoring things. High pressure builds back in next weekend with seasonably warm and drier weather once again.

Tuesday will be much more comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could be strong to severe. High 85-92.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies gradually clear out. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 83-90.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Weekly Outlook: July 18-24, 2022

Hot weather is expected for much of the upcoming week (in July? That never happens!), but luckily, humidity levels won’t be that bad most of the time.

An approaching frontal system will bring in some showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. While we need any rain we get to help put a dent in the developing drought, it looks like the heaviest rain will stay north and west of the region. Still, some of the storms that do develop may contain some heavy downpours. Drier air settles in behind the front for Tuesday, but the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold, and in fact, with sunshine, temperatures will actually be warmer than today, making a run at 90 in many locations. Wednesday also looks hot, but with moderate humidity levels.

Most of the models keep the heavy rain out of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island today. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday looks oppressive at this point with heat and humidity increasing as another frontal system approaches the region. That front may produce a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but for now, it doesn’t look like a widespread severe weather event is likely. Drier air settles in for Friday with hot weather continuing. Next weekend looks very warm to hot with moderate humidity levels and a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday.

The combination of heat and humidity will make it feel likely it’s close to 100 degrees Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 78-85.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending, some clearing late at night. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and not as humid. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 89-96.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds with some late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, humid. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 86-93.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 87-94.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 85-92.

Weekly Outlook: July 11-17, 2022

Much of the upcoming week will feature some weather that is rather typical for July.

High pressure moves offshore today, with southwest winds increasing this afternoon, bringing warmer, and more humid air into the region. You probably won’t notice the humidity until tonight, but you will certainly notice it on Tuesday, when hot and humid weather moves in ahead of a cold front. That front may produce showers and thunderstorms late in the day and at night. Right now, it looks like most of the severe weather should stay well to the west, but a few storms could produce some gusty winds and downpours Tuesday night. The front pushes offshore Wednesday morning, but it will remain quite warm, with humidity levels dropping during the day.

Tuesday looks to be a hot day, especially across the interior. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday with seasonably warm and dry conditions. We’ll start to warm up and become more humid again on Saturday, then the next frontal system approaches on Sunday, with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms.

Very little rainfall is expected this week, with only 2 chances at some showers between now and Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy during the afternoon. High 82-89, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy, humid, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 86-93, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible, especially during the evening. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 85-92.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 81-88.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly sunny, humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.

Weekly Outlook: July 4-10, 2022

As is typical of summer, we’ve got a fairly uneventful week coming up across the region.

High pressure remains in control today with sunshine, warm temperatures and comfortable humidity. As the high moves offshore, a weak system will head towards northern New England. Clouds will start to move in Monday night, but they’ll start to thicken up Tuesday afternoon, with a round of showers and thunderstorms expected late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure builds back in for Wednesday through Friday with dry and seasonably warm conditions. Another system will bring in a few showers and thunderstorms late Friday or Saturday, then high pressure builds back in for Sunday.

Some beneficial rain is likely Tuesday night, but we need a lot more to help alleviate the drought. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Sunshine and some late-day clouds. High 78-85.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy and breezy, showers possible late in the day. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, ending late at night. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 78-85.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance for showers late in the day and at night. High 78-85.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers, mainly early. High 74-81.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: July 1-4, 2022

We’ve reached the Fourth of July, and for the most part, we’ll have some great weather for the long weekend.

High pressure slides offshore tonight, resulting in hot and increasingly humid conditions on Friday. Temperatures will likely top 90 in much of the region. Humidity levels, while rising, won’t be in the unbearable range (yet), but you’ll definitely notice the increase in moisture. A warm front moves through at night, with a shower or thunderstorm possible, but all this front will really do is increase the humidity for Saturday. We’ll have more cloudcover on Saturday as a cold front approaches, but with a very warm and now very humid airmass in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of that cold front. Some of the storms that do form could be strong to severe, with strong winds, heavy downpours, and hail. If you’ve got outdoor plans Saturday afternoon/evening, keep an eye on the sky and the radar, and be prepared to move indoors.

There is a slight risk for severe weather across much of the region on Saturday, with the remainder of the region under a marginal risk. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Showers come to an end from northwest to southeast Saturday night, though they may linger across the South Coast and Cape Cod into early Sunday morning. Sunday should feature cooler and drier conditions as high pressure builds in, but with the front stalled out just south of New England, there will still be a slight chance for a shower on Sunday, mainly near the South Coast. For the 4th itself, we’re looking at sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity levels.

Dewpoints will be in the 50s to lower 60s for the 4th of July. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 88-95, cooler along the South Coast. Offshore: Southwest 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-4 feet visibility 1-3 miles in patchy morning fog, improving in the afternoon.

Friday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Low 66-73.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which may become strong to severe. High 79-86. Offshore: Southwest 15-20 knots, gusts to 25 knots, seas 3-5 feet, visibility under 1 mile in showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending, then skies become partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower, mainly near the South Coast. High 80-87. Offshore: West winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers near the South Coast, 10 miles or better elsewhere.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-87. Offshore: West winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Weekly Outlook: June 27 – July 4, 2022

As we head towards a long weekend, much, but not all, of the upcoming week will feature some rather nice weather.

We start the week with a cold front approaching the region today. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front. While we’re not expecting a lot of rainfall today, we need every drop we can get, to help alleviate the developing drought. The front moves offshore this evening, then skies clear out. High pressure builds in or Tuesday and Wednesday with sunshine and mild temperatures. A weak disturbance may produce a shower or two Wednesday evening, otherwise, high pressure remains in control for the latter half of the week with dry weather and a warming trend. In fact, Friday, could be quite toasty, with some of the models showing temperatures well into the 90s across a good portions of the region.

Friday could be a hot day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

For the Fourth of July Weekend, the start looks a little uncertain. A frontal system will approach the region on Saturday. How warm we get ahead of the front will depend on the timing. If we can get some sunshine, it could be another hot day. The front should produce another round of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night. We should dry out for Sunday and Monday, with temperatures at least reaching seasonably warm levels, though some models show the potential for hot weather to quickly return, especially on the Fourth.

The European model has July 4th as a scorcher, the GFS does not. Which will be closer to the truth? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. High 74-81.

Monday night: Showers end in the evening, skies clear out after midnight. Low 53-60.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, chance for a shower during the evening. High 78-85.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 81-88.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 88-95, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 84-91.

Sunday: Showers and storms may linger into the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 79-86.

Fourth of July: Mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Weekly Outlook: June 20-26, 2022

Astronomical summer begins at 5:13am Tuesday, but it’ll be at least a few more days until some traditional “summer weather” arrives.

An upper-level low pressure system will pull away from the region today while a ridge of high pressure that has been roasting the nation’s mid-section will slowly start to slide eastward. At the surface, high pressure builds in today with sunshine and mild temperatures, but still a little below normal for the middle of June. A warm front will start to approach on Tuesday, and it may be accompanied by some scattered showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday. They shouldn’t be that heavy, and won’t ruin either day, but at this point, we need any rain we can get. That brings us to Thursday.

Average high temperatures for this time of year should be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

That warm front likely slips back southward, and a weak area of low pressure may develop offshore. That could result in a rather cool and wet day on Thursday. This is not definite by any means, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans just yet. By Friday, that front should lift northward again and the weak low pulls away, resulting in warmer and more humid weather for Friday into the weekend. While temperatures will be near to a little above normal, we’re not looking at any widespread heat just yet. A few thunderstorms could pop up each afternoon, especially Sunday, with a cold front approaching from the northwest.

Thursday may or may not be damp, depending on which model you believe. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and just a few afternoon clouds. High 71-78, coolest along the coastline with afternoon seabreezes likely.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79, again coolest at the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a shower. High 68-75.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with showers likely. High 67-74.

Friday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or two. High 76-83.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78-85.

Weekly Outlook: June 13-19, 2022

While heat grips much of the nation, conditions will be a bit more pleasant around here this week:

A cold front will move offshore this morning, taking any lingering showers with it. High pressure then builds in later today into Wednesday with dry and seasonably warm conditions expected. Another cold front approaches later Thursday into Friday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid weather will return for those days as well, ahead of the front. Behind that front, high pressure builds in for next weekend with drier but still mild conditions.

Friday could be a really warm day even with a cold front moving through early. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Any lingering showers end this morning, skies clear out this afternoon. High 77-84.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, more likely at night. High 77-84.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms end in the morning, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 72-79.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.