Weekly Outlook: November 29 – December 5, 2021

We’re into the time of the year where the models are even more useless than normal beyond a few days out.

You’re better off trusting this guy than you are trusting the models more than 3 days out at this time of year.

You’ll recall in our Weekend Outlook we talked about the potential for our first accumulating snow of the season for Sunday night into this morning. Well, before that could happen, another threat materialized for Friday night into Saturday morning that did coat the ground with snow across parts of the region, and this morning’s system was a complete dud. Having said that, much of this week looks quiet despite the pattern actually being fairly active, and we’re fairly confident in that (for now).

Low pressure pulls away from the region today with gradually clearing expected by tonight. High pressure will start to build in for tonight and Tuesday with dry and chilly conditions, but another weak disturbance will move towards the area. It will spread in some clouds on Tuesday, but little precipitation is expected, except possibly near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in on Wednesday with dry and slightly milder weather. Unfortunately more clouds are expected as another cold front approaches from the west. Some showers are likely ahead of that front on Thursday, but temperatures on Thursday should be quite mild (by early December standards), with some places topping 50. That front moves through during the afternoon, then high pressure builds back in with much cooler weather for Friday.

Temperatures could top 50 across parts of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next weekend is highly uncertain right now, and this is where the unreliability of the models beyond a few days comes into the play. Some of the models are showing the possibility for a system to come through on Saturday with some light snow, others aren’t. They are also showing the potential for another system Sunday night into Monday, which could be a messy storm. At this point, it’s fair to question both what the models are showing, and the timing of these systems. So, when you get down to the detailed forecast later on the page, you’re going to see things worded as a “chance”. Obviously, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Then again, when we did last weekend’s outlook on Wednesday, we didn’t see that potential for light snow late Friday and Friday night. In other words, don’t go cancelling any plans for next weekend yet.

Saturday could see flakes or it could be dry. at this point, we’re not sure. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the morning across eastern Massachusetts. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Some early sun, then clouds stream back in, slight chance for a shower or two near the South Coast. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: A few sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 40-47.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers early, then showers are more likely at night. High 47-54.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 38-45.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 36-43.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: November 22-28, 2021

The weather shouldn’t impact any Thanksgiving travel plans you might have, but that doesn’t mean the entire week will be quiet.

We’re starting the week off on a wet note with showers ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures are starting off mild, but that will change in a hurry. The front moves through by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but much cooler air will quickly settle in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a couple of very chilly days. While most of us will have sunshine to go with the cool weather, it could be a different story across parts of the Cape and Islands. As the chilly air comes in on north to northeast winds, it will move over the still-relatively mild waters of the Atlantic. This may result in some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. This is far from definite, and accumulations, if any, would be very minor, but don’t be surprised if flakes are flying in places like Truro or Chatham later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tuesday afternoon will feature wind chills in the 20s and lower 30s. Image provided by Weatherbell.

The high slides off to the east of Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to move back into the region. Another cold front approaches from the west on Friday, another round of showers is expected. Even colder air returns behind that front for next week. With an upper-level low moving across the Northeast at the same time we’ll have some clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers popping up.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 40 on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy with showers ending by early afternoon. High 51-58 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Monday night: Gradual clearing late at night. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, except clouds and possibly some snow showers over the Outer Cape. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Thanksgiving Day: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 48-55.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks may develop. High 42-49.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 36-43.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Weekly Outlook: November 15-21, 2021

Much of the upcoming week should be fairly quiet and on the cool side, but there are some exceptions.

The week starts of with low pressure moving into southeastern Canada while an upper-level low pressure system moves into the Northeast. A few showers are possible behind the departing surface system, but with the upper-level system moving in, we’ll see plenty of clouds, and possibly another shower or two. Across the hills of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire, those showers could have some wet snow mixed in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with sunshine and cool temperatures. Clouds will start to move back in on Wednesday ahead of a warm front, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of shower activity with this front.

Normal high temperatures are within a degree or two of 50 in mid-November. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday looks like it will be quite a mild day by November standards, with many locations topping 60 degrees. However, a cold front will be approaching from the west, so some showers are likely by late in the day and especially at night. Could some wet snow mix in as colder air rushes in early Friday morning before the rain all moves offshore? Sure it’s possible, especially well north and west of Boston. Another upper-level disturbance moves through on Friday with more clouds and possibly a rain or snow shower. High pressure returns on Saturday, then clouds stream back in on Sunday ahead of yet another weak storm system, with some showers possible by late in the day.

Thursday looks quite mild. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Early clouds, maybe a shower, then sunshine develops, but clouds return in the afternoon ad possibly another shower. possibly mixed with some snow across the interior hills. High 43-50.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and breezy. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy at times. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 46-53.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and mild with showers developing at night. High 59-66.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, and cooler, showers end in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chance for showers late in the day. High 45-52.

Weekly Outlook: November 8-14, 2021

After some recent chilly weather we’re going to start to warm back up and it will remain dry, but not for the entire week.

We start the week off with high pressure in control providing us with sunshine and milder temperatures into Tuesday. A weak system will pass to our north Tuesday night, sending in some clouds and possibly a shower or two, but the bulk of the rain should stay well to our north. Drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but the end of the week is when the changes happen.

Temperatures could top 60 across much of the region on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes on Friday after bringing some snow to parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. A frontal system will be located well ahead of that low, sending some showers out way for Friday. A secondary area of low pressure will develop along the front, bringing in another round of rain for Friday night into Saturday. and this batch could be heavy. Everything should push offshore by Saturday evening, with drier and cooler conditions settling in for next Sunday. A much cooler weather pattern may set up for next week, possibly hanging around for quite a while.

Parts of the region could see more than an inch of rain at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some morning clouds, otherwise becoming mostly sunny. High 53-60.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower late at night. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Early clouds and possibly a shower, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 55-62.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 51-58.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, becoming a steady rain at night. High 57-64.

Saturday: Periods of rain and showers, ending in the afternoon. High 55-62.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: November 1-7, 2021

Much of the upcoming week is going to dry but it will get progressively cooler.

A cold front will cross the region with little fanfare today, but temperatures will remain on the mild side. Another weak front moves through on Tuesday with just a few showers accompanying it, but temperatures will turn a little cooler once again. Another weak disturbance moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare, but again, temperatures will turn a little cooler behind it as well. A weak system will pass by to the south Thursday into Friday, possibly close enough for a few showers south of Boston, but the flow around it will bring even cooler weather into the area. High pressure then builds in next weekend.

Temperatures will be below normal for much of the upcoming week. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 54-61.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, slight chance for a shower. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Patchy frost is possible. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 47-54.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two south of Boston late in the day and at night. High 45-52.

Friday: Chance for an early shower south of Boston, then becoming partly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: October 25-31, 2021

We can sum up much of the upcoming week in one word: Awful. Yeah, it’s gonna suck. Let’s get right to the ugly details.

Showers will taper off this morning as a warm front stalls out near or just south of the region and a wave of low pressure riding along the front departs. However, with the front hanging out nearby, we’ll still have plenty of clouds, some drizzle and fog, and maybe another shower or two. Depending on where the front stalls out, some milder air may move into the South Coast, but for most of us, it won’t be that mild. Of course, today’s shower activity is the opening act for what follows.

Mild air may try to move into the South Coast today depending on how far north and warm front gets. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Our first coastal storm of the fall is on tap for Monday night into Wednesday, and possibly even early Thursday. A strong upper-level disturbance will move toward the East Coast from the Midwest while a second one moves out of the Gulf of Mexico. These two will meet up off the East Coast, resulting in an area of low pressure developing and rapidly strengthening south of New England. As an upper-level low pressure area also develops, it will capture the developing storm at the surface, which will prevent it from moving too much for about 24 hours. If it were late December or January, instead of late-October, this would likely be an impressive blizzard across the interior.

The GFS model shows the evolution of both the surface low pressure area and the upper-level low. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

So what does all this mean for us? A lot. As in, a lot of rain and a lot of wind. Rain will redevelop Monday night, and continue into Wednesday, possibly heavy at times. Much of the region will likely receive 2-4 inches of rain, but many models are showing the potential for totals of 5-6 inches or more. As of the time of this writing, there were Flash Flood Watches in effect for southern Connecticut, but we expect them to be expanded into parts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts at least by Monday morning.

Rainfall totals on the models through Wednesday evening range from impressive to excessive. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for the wind, as the storm rapidly develops, the pressure gradient between it and the high pressure area to the north will result in increasing winds. As is usually the case, the strongest winds will be found along the coast, but even inland locations, especially across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, will feel the winds. Northeast winds will be sustained at 25-35 mph, with gusts to 60 mph or higher expected. The strongest winds are likely from Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, when a High Wind Watch is in effect. The combination of strong winds, heavy rain, and trees that still have most of their leaves will increase the threat for power outages, so charge up your electronics today just to be safe. As the leaves all come down, there are two other issues to worry about. First, they will clog up some of the storm drains, resulting in additional flooding, but they’ll also result in slippery roads, so keep this in mind if you’re out driving.

Wind gusts could top 60 mph Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially south of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm system finally pulls away on Thursday, but winds may remain gusty, and a few lingering showers are also possible, especially across Cape Cod in the morning. High pressure builds in with some clearing and drier air later Thursday and Thursday night. Then things are nice for Friday and the weekend, right? Yeah, not so much. Another low pressure system will move out of the Midwest while an upper-level low pressure area also moves eastward. That means more rain developing at some point later Friday, and continuing off and on through the weekend. This storm shouldn’t be as potent as the one on Tuesday, so we probably won’t have as much wind or rain, but the weekend isn’t looking that great right now, and this includes trick-or-treating weather Sunday evening. Right now, the models have this storm a lot further north than the first storm, which would result in milder temperatures. There’s still a lot of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, so maybe it won’t be that bad (yeah, right). We should have a better idea what to expect when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Halloween weekend could be quite wet, but not as wet as the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers tapering off in the morning, with periods of drizzle and possibly another shower or two in the afternoon. High 48-55 north and west of I-95, 55-62 south and east of I-95, except 62-79 south of Route 44.

Monday night: Breezy with Rain likely. Low 43-50 north and west of Boston, 50-57 south and east.

Tuesday: Very windy with rain, heavy at times. High 50-57 north and west of Boston, 57-64 south and east.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers, very windy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with more showers likely. High 50-57.

Thursday: A lingering shower or two across Cape Cod early, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, especially north and west of Boston, still breezy near the coast. High 51-58.

Friday: Some early sun, then clouds return, rain develops at night, breezy. High 52-59.

Saturday: Periods of rain and showers. High 57-64.

Sunday: Cloudy with more rain and showers possible. High 57-64.

Weekly Outlook: October 18-24, 2021

Cooler weather has finally arrived, and it will be here for part of the upcoming week.

A chilly night is expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure continues to build into the region today with temperatures running a few degrees cooler than we had on Sunday. With an upper-level disturbance still moving through, we’ll see clouds develop, and a few pop-up showers are possible in the afternoon. High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions. By Wednesday, the high moves offshore, and a southwest flow will bring milder air back into the area. Thursday also looks warm, but clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches from the west. That front will move through Thursday night or early Friday with a few showers, but the bigger story is what happens behind the front. Friday’s temperatures will be determined by when the front moves through, but for now at least, it looks mild again, at least to start.

Thursday should be quite a mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Even cooler air settles into the region next weekend. Temperatures likely won’t get out of the 50s on Sunday, with many places likely dropping into the 30s at night. Before you complain too much, some of the models show the potential for lake-effect snow in parts of western and northern New York next weekend. We’ve also got to keep an eye on a low pressure system that may try and move up the coast on Saturday, but for now at least, it looks like it should stay offshore.

We’re keeping an eye on a potential system for Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a pop-up shower or two. High 54-61.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and quite cool. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 56-63.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 65-72.

Thursday: Sunshine gradually fades behind thickening clouds, showers may develop overnight. High 66-73.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for some showers early. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower. High 54-61.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: October 11-17, 2021

All the signs are there that we’re well into fall – the leaves are changing colors, baseball’s playoffs are in full swing, football is well into the season, hockey starts up this week, basketball next week, pumpkin flavored everything has invaded everywhere, but someone forgot to give Mother Nature the memo, as we’ve got some warm weather on the way for much of the week.

Normal high temperatures for mid-October are in the lower to middle 60s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with high pressure to the north and low pressure well south of New England. The low may produce a few showers near the South Coast this morning, but high pressure should eventually win out, with some sunshine developing during the afternoon. Even more sunshine and milder temperatures are expected on Tuesday as the high continues to build in. A weak system moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare except for some clouds and just a slight chance for a shower. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday with dry and warm conditions.

Temperatures will average 6-10 degrees above normal across the region this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next weekend is where things get a little uncertain. A cold front will be approaching the region, and it’s timing is still a bit of a question mark. Saturday looks quite mild at this point, but as the front draws nearer, some showers and possibly thunderstorms are likely ahead of it. Much of the day should remain dry, with showers holding off until nightfall, but this is far from certain. The front likely moves through at night, with much cooler air settling in on Sunday. However, if the front doesn’t move through until sometime Sunday, as at least one model shows, then Sunday could start off quite warm before temperatures drop during the afternoon. We should have better clarification of the timing of the front for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The timing of next weekend’s system is still in question. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A few showers near the South Coast early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. High 64-71.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 69-76.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69-76.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 69-76.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers and possibly some thunderstorms likely at night, breezy. High 68-75.

Sunday: Showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 61-68.

Weekly Outlook: October 4-10, 2021

A wet start to the week, then we dry out. Wet weather may return for the end of the week.

A frontal system is stalled out across the region, and waves of low pressure will ride along it, bringing in rain, some of it heavy, Monday and Monday night, with showers tapering off on Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday, with dry and gradually milder weather. Next weekend is a bit uncertain, as high pressure will remain to the north while low pressure tries to move up from the south. We’ll see which feature wins out.

Most of the models agree on a general 1-2 inches of rain by the end of the day Tuesday, with some showing heavier amounts. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, some of which may be heavy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Cloudy with more rain and showers. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 63-70.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, cooler. High 61-68.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Editorial note: Thursday’s Weekend Outlook is normally published during the mid-to-late afternoon. This week, it will likely not be published until sometime Thursday night, so you’ll probably be able to read it Friday morning.

Weekly Outlook: September 27 – October 3, 2021

Baseball’s regular season is in the home stretch, football is well underway, hockey is starting up, and pumpkin everything is showing up everywhere. It’s definitely fall now. Mother Nature is going to get in on the act this week too. Goodbye shorts, hello light jackets or sweatshirts.

It’s been a warm September, but changes are coming as we near the end of the month. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a warm note with high pressure still in control, but changes are coming. A cold front dropping southward will produce some showers tonight and Tuesday, with a rumble of thunder possible as well. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front to our south Wednesday night and Thursday, with another period of showers likely. Friday looks like a typical fall day to start October. An upper-level low pressure are will be moving across the region, bringing with it some clouds and possibly a few showers. High pressure should return for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

High temperatures may struggle to reach 60 on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any lingering showers end in the evening. Low 46-53.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 61-68.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some showers possible. High 57-64.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 60-67.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.