Weekend Outlook: August 12-15, 2022

We got rid of the heat a couple of days ago, the humidity will follow soon.

A cold front will approach the region tonight, with just a couple of showers accompanying the front when it moves through early Friday. After that, high pressure builds in for the weekend with temperatures at or below normal, and significantly lower humidity levels. An upper-level disturbance will move through on Saturday which may trigger a stray shower or two, but most of us will remain dry. Sunday looks like the best day of the week bunch with warm and dry conditions and a good amount of sunshine.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s on Saturday, which is roughly below normal for mid-August. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is the transition day. Many of the models are showing the potential for some significant rainfall during the early to middle part of next week with an offshore low pressure system. Given recent trends and the ongoing drought, we are obviously skeptical that this will happen, but the models are in decent agreement for now. Assuming this trend continues, we’ll see clouds move in on Monday, with some showers possible by late in the day. We’ll obviously have more details and more confidence in what will happen when we publish our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Some of the models show the potential for significant rainfall early next week. We’re highly skeptical that it will happen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, some patchy fog is possible, especially near the coast. Low 60-67.

Friday: A few lingering showers early, otherwise clouds and some sunshine, not as humid. High 75-82.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers may develop by late in the day. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: August 5-8, 2022

Heat and humidity are here, and there’s not going away for a while.

A Bermuda high pressure area will remain anchored off the East Coast for the next several days. It will continue to pump hot and humid air into the region. There will be some relief at times, but overall, we’ll stay hot and humid through at least Monday. A cold front will try to approach on Friday, and it will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. This will not only provide relief, but also help with our worsening drought. Unfortunately, we need a lot more rain, and this won’t do the trick. That front will essentially dissipate before moving through, so the heat will continue. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up each afternoon this weekend, but they’ll be widely scattered, so most of us may not see one. Another front approaches on Monday, and this one may have a little more “oomph” to it. It may produce more showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but it likely doesn’t move through until Tuesday.

Friday’s thunderstorms could drop heavy downpours in spots, but coverage could be spotty. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Friday: Early sun, then increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening. Low 67-74.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 86-93. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.