Weekend Outlook: August 14-17, 2020

We’ve got a tug-of-war this weekend between high pressure to our northeast and a frontal boundary stalled out to the south. For the most part, the high should win out.

The late-morning surface analysis shows high pressure buolding into northern new England and a frontal stalled near the South Coast. Image provided by the Weather Predicition Center.

As high pressure builds in, drier air has also settled in, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s across much of the region. While we’ll still be warm today, cooler air will gradually settle in over the next few days, thanks mainly to east to northeast winds off of the Atlantic. The ocean is about the warmest it will get around here during the year, but it’s still only in the 60s and lower 70s east of New England, so winds blowing off the water will still have a cooling effect, especially along the coastline.

Current sea-surface temperature analysis. Image provided by NOAA.

Meanwhile, that front to the south will keep some clouds around, especially along the South Coast. A couple of waves of low pressure will ride along this front. They’ll bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic states, where flash flood watches and warnings remain in effect, but around here, they won’t do much for now. The first wave should pass harmlessly south of the region, except for possibly a few showers along the south coast this afternoon and evening. It’s the second wave, for late Sunday and Monday, that we’re keeping an eye on. Many of the models have it coming in farther north, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. However, we’ve also had plenty of times recently when the models have been trying to bring in widespread showers a few days out, and they just haven’t materialized. As we’ve said several times, the old forecaster’s adage is “When in Drought, Leave it Out”. We wouldn’t be surprised if the high pressure area wins out again, and most of us stay dry Sunday night and Monday too.

The latest Drought Monitor shows the drought worsening across the Northeast. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, coolest along the coast.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 73-80, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for some showers. Low 61-68.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, some showers are also possible. High 75-82.

Forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Josephine. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, we’ll briefly mention Tropical Storm Josephine. Tropical Depression 11 strengthened into Tropical Storm Josephine this morning. As of midday, it was centered a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Josephine may strengthen a little more in the next day or so, but after that, it will be moving into some rather unfavorable conditions. The current forecast calls for it to pass north of the Antilles this weekend, by which point strong wind shear could rip the system apart. It will likely dissipate without threatening any land areas. Even if it does survive, it will start to recurve and head out to sea north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas.

Weekly Outlook: August 10-16, 2020

The heat and humidity are back, and they’ll hang around for at least a few days.

We start the week with high pressure in control, pumping warm to hot and humid weather in for Monday and Tuesday. Many places away from the shoreline will top 90, and when the humidity is factored in, it will feel like its in the middle to upper 90s, especially on Tuesday. Heat advisories have been posted for this afternoon and Tuesday for much of interior Southern New England. A couple of pop-up showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but they’ll be few and far between, and even less likely on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be another hot and humid day, but a cold front will be slowly approaching from the west. It will produce some more numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of these storms may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds, but for now at least, it doesn’t look like we’ll have widespread severe weather. More showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday before the front finally gets through the region. The front looks like it will stall out just to the south, which will keep clouds and possibly more showers around for Friday, especially south of the Mass Pike. High pressure finally builds in for next weekend with drier and cooler conditions.

Showers and storms will bring in some much-needed rain late this week, but a lot more is needed to help alleviate the drought. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Some patchy fog this morning, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds, just a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, humid. High 85-92, coolest along the coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some patchy fog may redevelop. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid, a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy and muggy. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. High 88-95.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82-89.

Friday: More showers south of the Mass Pike, mainly during the morning, otherwise, skies gradually clear out from north to south. High 80-87, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 76-83, coolest along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Weekend Outlook: August 7-10, 2020

It won’t be all sunshine and warm temperatures, but we should be able to salvage a decent weekend around here.

The high pressure system providing us with a nice day today will slide off to the east tonight, while a weak low pressure system moves along a frontal boundary that has stalled out to our south. That will send clouds our way tonight and Friday. Some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm are expected on Friday as the front tries to lift northward, but they’ll likely be confined to areas south of the Mass Pike. With plenty of cloud cover and east to northeast winds, it definitely be cooler than it has been for a while.

Temperatures may stay in the 70s all day Friday across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As we get to Saturday, a weak upper-level disturbance will move across the region. We’ll still have plenty of clouds, especially early, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible as the disturbance moves through. However, once it exits, skies should start to clear out late in the day, and we’ll get a bit warmer. High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, with warm and humid conditions returning to the area.

The drought will continue to get worse until we get some significant rain on a regular basis. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 74-81.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 60-67.

Saturday: Cloudy with some showers or a thunderstorm early, some sunshine develops in the afternoon. High 75-82.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 83-90.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93.

Tropical Storm Isaias Nears the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias is near the Carolina coastline this afternoon, but struggling to maintain its intensity.

The center of Isaias now shows up on radar off the South Carolina coast. Loop provided by Weathertap

As of 2pm Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was centered about 115 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, moving toward the north at 13 mph, though radar and data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft appear to show a motion more toward the north-northeast. The National Hurricane Center says maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, but again, data from reconnaissance aircraft show the system to be weaker than that.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Isaias. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina, and also from Oregon Inlet, North Carolina to the Virginia/North Carolina border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Between Cape Fear and Oregon Inlet, a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect south of South Santee River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and north of Surf City, all the way to the Mouth of the Merrimack River in Massachusetts, , including Chespeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac, River, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound. North of the Merrimack River, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect to Eastport, Maine.

Isaias should continue heading north-northeastward, making landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border this evening. Although the official forecast calls for the storm to strengthen back into a hurricane before landfall, this appears unlikely at this point. There really isn’t much difference between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane anyway, so it’s a moot point. Once inland, it should continue on a north-northeast track, moving up the coastline, steered by an upper-level trough moving in from the west. Normally, tropical storms weaken rapidly as they move over land and away from warm water, which is their main source of energy. However, Isaias will be making the transition into an extratropical storm, so it may not weaken that rapidly.

There are a few differences between tropical and extratropical storms.Image provided by the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography

Storm surge will be a threat along the Carolina coast, near and east of where the center makes landfall. A surge of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels could result in some coastal flooding. Strong winds will also be a threat, mainly east of the storm’s center. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph have been reported just off the South Carolina coastline this afternoon. As it moves northward, some strong winds will be likely across eastern North Carolina as the storm moves inland, and possibly across eastern New England late Tuesday as the system moves across the Northeast.

The strongest winds will be east of the storm’s track and mainly offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By far, the biggest threat with Isaias is heavy rainfall and the resulting flooding. The heaviest rain is likely along and west of the storm’s track. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are likely from the Carolinas into eastern Canada, which will produce flooding in many areas. The storm’s relatively quick motion will preclude even heavier totals. East of the storm’s track, rainfall will be much lighter, with many places likely seeing less than 1 inch, which won’t help with the drought developing across eastern New England.

Isaias will produce heavy rainfall along and west of its track from the Carolinas into eastern Canada. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Elsewhere, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Conditions could become favorable for it to develop into a tropical depression in a few days. Model forecasts show it heading northwestward for the next few days, staying over open water. By mid-week, most forecasts show it stalling out about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. It does not look like a threat to any land areas at this time.

Weekly Outlook: August 3-9, 2020

The forecast for the upcoming week is both complex and simple at the same time.

Barring a surprise, Isaias will almost certainly track to our west. Image provide by Tropical Tidbits.

We start the week off with a hot and humid day today, thanks to high pressure located over the Atlantic (more on that in a bit). Temperatures will get into the upper 80s and 90s across the region this afternoon. When you combine that with dewpoints generally in the 60s, it’ll feel like it’s in the mid 90s during the afternoon. Clouds will quickly start to stream in at night, making for a rather warm and muggy evening.

The heaviest rain from Isaias will stay well to our west. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As we head into Tuesday, we turn our eyes to the southwest and Tropical Storm Isaias. The combination of a trough of low pressure approaching from the west and that high pressure over the Atlantic will steer Isaias into the Carolinas late tonight or early Tuesday. After that, it will start to quickly move north-northeastward, likely passing west of the region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Most of the heavy rain will be located west of the track, but we’ll still have some showers and tropical downpours around here late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The storm should also be weakening and passing far enough to our west to spare us from any significant wind issues. It’ll be breezy, with some gusts to 40 mph or so possible, especially along the South Coast, but overall, it really shouldn’t be too big of a deal. Once again, the hype will be likely worse than the reality.

The potential exists for wind gusts to 50 mph, but they’ll likely be lower. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Wednesday morning, Isaias is out of here and skies will clear out, with drier air settling in as high pressure builds into the region. That high should remain in place for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity levels.

Dry weather for the latter half of the week will not help with the developing drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and hot. High 86-93.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 67-74.

Tuesday: Cloudy and becoming windy with showers likely, some of them may be briefly heavy. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and windy with showers ending, skies may start to clear late at night. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 79-86.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 78-85.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Tropical Storm Isaias Nears Florida, Heads for the Carolinas

While crossing the Bahamas on Saturday, Hurricane Isaias weakened to a tropical storm, but it remains a threat to much of the East Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaias continues to spin off the Florida Coast this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

As of 2pm Sunday, Tropical Storm Isaias was centered about 45 miles east-southeast of Vero Beach, Florida, moving toward the north-northwest at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph, and should remain near that level for the next day or two, with some fluctuations in strength possible. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina, with a Tropical Storm Watch north of Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Isaias moved across the Bahamas as a hurricane late Friday into early Saturday, before weakening to a Tropical Storm Saturday afternoon. The combination of southwesterly wind shear and some dry air due to Saharan Dust contributed to the weakening. Isaias is maintaining its strength this afternoon despite the presence of more wind shear.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Isaias. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Isaias should continue to head towards the north today, in between a large area of high pressure of the east, and an approaching trough of low pressure from the west. As the trough continues to move towards the East Coast, it will help turn Isaias more towards the north-northeast and eventually northeast. On this track, Isaias will parallel the coast of Florida and Georgia today and tomorrow, then likely make landfall in either South Carolina or North Carolina late Monday night or early Tuesday. Once inland, Isaias will continue northeastward, and although it will weaken a bit, it should maintain some strength as it moves up the coast, as it starts to transition into an extratropical storm.

Storm surge will be a threat along the Carolina coast, near and east of where the center makes landfall. A surge of up to 4 feet above normal tide levels could result in some coastal flooding. Strong winds will also be a threat, mainly east of the storm’s center. Winds have been gusting as high as 50 mph along the Florida coast this afternoon. As it moves northward, some strong winds will be likely across eastern North Carolina as the storm moves inland, and possibly across eastern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the system moves across the Northeast.

Most of the strongest winds should remain offshore. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By far, the biggest threat with Isaias is heavy rainfall and the resulting flooding. Some bands of heavy rain have moved across parts of Florida, and that will continue through tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible across parts of Florida and Georgia over the next 24-36 hours. As you head north, heavier rain is likely from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast, mainly along and west of the storm’s track. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier are likely, which will produce flooding in many areas. The storm’s relatively quick motion will preclude even heavier totals. East of the storm’s track, rainfall will be much lighter, with many places likely seeing less than 1 inch.

Isaias will produce heavy rainfall across much of the East Coast over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Elsewhere, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Conditions could become favorable for it to develop into a tropical depression in a few days. Model forecasts show it heading northwestward, staying north of the Caribbean over the next few days. By mid-week, most forecasts show it stalling out about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. It does not look like a threat to any land areas at this time.

Hurricane Isaias Enters the Bahamas, East Coast on Alert

Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened into a hurricane early Friday as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic and headed towards the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the threat to the East Coast is starting to increase.

As of early Friday morning, Isaias was centered about 45 miles southeast of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, and was moving toward the northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph based on recent data from reconnaissance aircraft. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern, central, and southeastern Bahamas.Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the entire Dominican Republic, the north coast of Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet.

Forecast track for Huirricane Isaias. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The short-term forecast for Isaias is rather simple. It will continue to move toward the northwest across the Bahamas while gradually slowing down. Waters remain very warm in this area (29-31C), and wind shear shouldn’t be that strong, which will allow Isaias to strengthen a bit more over the next day or two.

Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm enough to support a strengthening tropical system in the Bahamas. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once Isaias gets into the northwestern Bahamas, things get a bit trickier. A large high pressure area in the western Atlantic, and a trough of low pressure moving into the eastern United States will help to steer Isaias more towards the north-northwest, and then north, and eventually northeast. Exactly when those turns occur is critical to the forecast.

Model forecasts are fairly unanimous about a threat to parts of the East Coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The current forecast calls for Isaias to make the northward turn east of Florida, sparing the Sunshine State from the worst of the storm. It may be close enough to bring some gusty winds and heavy rain to east-coastal Florida over the weekend, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. That watch will likely be extended farther north on Friday. After that, it will head towards the Carolina coastline late Sunday into Monday. This is where the uncertainty is magnified.

If the Western Atlantic high is stronger than currently expected, or if the trough moving into the East is sharper than the models are currently showing, then Isaias will continue northward, likely moving across eastern North Carolina. A weaker high or flatter trough, would allow for a more northeastward movement, which could allow Isaias to only graze the Outer Banks or possibly even miss them completely.

GFS forecast for the upper-air pattern over the US for the next 5 days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Once the storm is beyond the Carolinas, there is more uncertainty with its track. Again, a more northeastward motion would bring the storm out to sea with little additional impact to any land areas. A motion that is more toward the north-northeast or even north would increase the threat to parts of the Northeast, including New England, for late Monday or Tuesday.  As this point, coastal residents from Florida to New England should all keep tabs on the storm’s progress, as it could impact a large stretch of coastline this weekend and early next week.

If Isaias does make its way to New England as a hurricane, it would be extraordinarily early in the season for an impact up here. The earliest that a hurricane has ever made landfall in New York or New England was when Hurricane Belle slammed into Long Island with 90 mph winds on August 9, 1976. Hurricane Arthur passed just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 16 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27. Since 1951, 36 storms have made landfall in New York or New England as tropical storms or hurricanes, but only 5 have done so before August 5.

  • An Unnamed Tropical Storm crossed Long Island on May 30, 2008 with winds of 45 mph.
  • An Unnamed Tropical Storm made landfall new Newport, RI on July 21, 1916 with winds of 70 mph.
  • Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near Falmouth, MA on July 11, 1959 with winds of 60 mph.
  • Tropical Storm Agnes made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972 with winds of 65 mph.
  • Tropical Storm Beryl crossed Nantucket with winds of 50 mph on July 21, 2006.
Isaias has produced tropical storm force winds across much of the northern and northeastern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

If it seems like we’ve been talking about this storm for a while, it’s because we have. Isaias was well-advertised by the models for almost a week before it finally developed over the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday. We even mentioned it in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning. It has produced wind gusts of up to 60 mph and heavy rain that produce flooding across parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Wind gusts as high as 54 mph were also reported in the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday evening.

Weekend Outlook: July 30-August 3, 2020

We’ll have a little bit of everything in the next few days, warm temperatures, high humidity, low humidity, thunderstorms, and maybe a tropical system.

A cold front will slowly cross the region today, with warm and humid conditions ahead of it. The front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, somke of which could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Some thunderstorms may move across the region ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

The front may hang up near the South Coast early Friday, otherwise, everyone else should start to clear out with drier air settling in. High pressure builds in for the rest of the day on Friday and into Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures but comfortable humidity levels.

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s across much of the region on Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure starts to move toward the region on Sunday, with a war front bringing in more humid conditions, along with the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms. With some cloud cover it shouldn’t be as hot as recent days, but it will be quite warm.

This sets the stage for Monday, which is a VERY uncertain forecast at this time. We’ll need to keep an eye on what happens with Tropical Storm Isaias. Some models show the potential for the storm or its remnants to move up the coast either Monday or Tuesday. At this point, we really can’t rule out any scenario. It’s still too early to determine what, if any, impact it has up here, but we should start to get a better idea over the next couple of days. We’ll likely have multiple blog posts about Isaias between this evening and this week, so we’ll keep you informed.

Will Isaias head up the coast? It looks that way, but exactly where is still a question. Image providsed by WeatherBell.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Mass Pike. High 85-92.

Thursday night: Showers gradually ending along the South Coast, skies start to clear out north of the Mass Pike. Low 64-71.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 81-88.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 63-70.

Sunday: More clouds than sunshine with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 67-74.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance for a hurricane. Plenty of clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 84-91.

Another Tropical System to Watch

We’ve been mentioning for several days now that a wave in the Atlantic needed to be watched for development. It isn’t a tropical cyclone yet, but it appears to be a matter of when, not if, it will become one.

The disturbance east of the Antilles is still trying to organized itself this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

While the system has a broad circulation and plenty of thunderstorm activity, it has not become a tropical cyclone as of yet. Until that circulation tightens up into a well-defined low-level center, it is just a tropical disturbance. The National Hurricane Center has dubbed it “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” as of midday Tuesday. This designation allows the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for many of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The center of the system is estimated to be about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is moving toward the west at 23 mph, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The expectation is that the circulation will tighten up and the system will become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. If it does, it will be given the name Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs). This has already led to many in the media and on the internet saying that it is the earliest “I” storm on record. This is true, but it ignores the fact that at least 2 of the storms we’ve had so far this season should not have been named.

Forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are out investigating the system this afternoon, trying to determine its strength and whether it has developed a low-level center yet. Once that center does develop, we’ll have a better idea of where the system may go. Right now, the forecast is for the system to cross the Lesser Antilles early Wednesday, then move across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and early Thursday. However, if recon finds that the center has developed in a spot that is not near where the Hurricane Center currently thinks it is, that will obviously have implications on the track of the system. Changes to the track will also have implications for how strong to system gets. As we’ve been saying for a few days now, until the system actually develops, all model forecasts for the system are suspect.

Model forecasts for the track Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Obviously, minor details could have major implications om the system’s future, but right now, it looks like it will track near or just north of the Greater Antilles. How close to passes to the islands will determine it’s strength. The closer it is, the more likely it is that the mountains of Hispaniola disrupt the circulation and keep it weak. The farther away, the more likely it stays mostly over water and strengthens while possibly impact the Bahamas along the the Turks and Caicos Islands. We’re not even going to speculate beyond that, because even forecasting this far out is more speculation than we’d like. We’re highly aware that many models, especially the ensembles show a threat to the East Coast, literally anywhere from Florida to Nova Scotia. We’re not ruling that out yet, but again, it is pure speculation at this point. We’ll say it again – once the system actually develops, we’ll start to have a better idea of where it’s going and how strong it may be. For now, it’s just something to keep an eye on.

Weekly Outlook: July 27-August 2, 2020

Heat and humidity continue across the region for a couple more days before relief arrives on Wednesday.

Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the region for today and Tuesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A ridge of high pressure remains in control, so stifling heat and humidity will remain in place until Tuesday. Today looks to be the hottest day, with temperatures well into the 90s. A few places could reach 100, but triple-digit heat shouldn’t be widespread. It will be very humid as well, sending the heat index well above 100 across the region, but dewpoints may actually drop a bit during the afternoon. Tonight will be downright uncomfortable without air conditioning, as low temperatures will only drop into the middle to upper 70s in many areas, and some urban areas, especially Boston, may not drop below 80.

Temperatures may struggle to drop below 80 in some spots Monday night. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday will start off very warm and humid, so it won’t take much to send temperatures above 90 once again, but clouds will also start to increase in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. This front may produce a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day and at night. Some of these storms may produce some heavy downpours and gusty winds, but we’re not expecting widespread severe weather.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday across the region. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The front slides offshore early Wednesday, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week and into the weekend. It be a bit cooler, but still near to a little above normal for the end of July, but the more noticeable effect will be that it is drier, with dewpoints only in the 50s to lower 60s.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds around, hot and humid. High 92-99.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 72-79.

Tuesday: Sunny early, then clouds move in with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 90-97.

Tuesday night: Showers ending during the evening, though possibly lingering for much of the night near the South Coast. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Lingering clouds along the South Coast early, otherwise becoming partly to mostly sunny and not as humid. High 85-92.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 83-90.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 82-89.

Model forecasts for the track of a tropical disturbance in the Central Atlantic. Image provided by WeatherBell,

Finally, we’ll mention the tropical disturbance in the Central Atlantic, since the hype train is already getting set to leave the station. Yes, there are a few models that show a potential threat to the East Coast in about 7-10 days. These should be treated the same as model forecasts in January that show a raging blizzard 7-10 days out. The probability of it happening is still fairly low. The system itself hasn’t even become a tropical depression yet. That may occur later Monday or Tuesday. If (when?) it does, we’ll write a blog post about the storm and it’s future. For now, it has our attention, but that’s it.