Weekly Outlook: October 25-31, 2021

We can sum up much of the upcoming week in one word: Awful. Yeah, it’s gonna suck. Let’s get right to the ugly details.

Showers will taper off this morning as a warm front stalls out near or just south of the region and a wave of low pressure riding along the front departs. However, with the front hanging out nearby, we’ll still have plenty of clouds, some drizzle and fog, and maybe another shower or two. Depending on where the front stalls out, some milder air may move into the South Coast, but for most of us, it won’t be that mild. Of course, today’s shower activity is the opening act for what follows.

Mild air may try to move into the South Coast today depending on how far north and warm front gets. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Our first coastal storm of the fall is on tap for Monday night into Wednesday, and possibly even early Thursday. A strong upper-level disturbance will move toward the East Coast from the Midwest while a second one moves out of the Gulf of Mexico. These two will meet up off the East Coast, resulting in an area of low pressure developing and rapidly strengthening south of New England. As an upper-level low pressure area also develops, it will capture the developing storm at the surface, which will prevent it from moving too much for about 24 hours. If it were late December or January, instead of late-October, this would likely be an impressive blizzard across the interior.

The GFS model shows the evolution of both the surface low pressure area and the upper-level low. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

So what does all this mean for us? A lot. As in, a lot of rain and a lot of wind. Rain will redevelop Monday night, and continue into Wednesday, possibly heavy at times. Much of the region will likely receive 2-4 inches of rain, but many models are showing the potential for totals of 5-6 inches or more. As of the time of this writing, there were Flash Flood Watches in effect for southern Connecticut, but we expect them to be expanded into parts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts at least by Monday morning.

Rainfall totals on the models through Wednesday evening range from impressive to excessive. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for the wind, as the storm rapidly develops, the pressure gradient between it and the high pressure area to the north will result in increasing winds. As is usually the case, the strongest winds will be found along the coast, but even inland locations, especially across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, will feel the winds. Northeast winds will be sustained at 25-35 mph, with gusts to 60 mph or higher expected. The strongest winds are likely from Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, when a High Wind Watch is in effect. The combination of strong winds, heavy rain, and trees that still have most of their leaves will increase the threat for power outages, so charge up your electronics today just to be safe. As the leaves all come down, there are two other issues to worry about. First, they will clog up some of the storm drains, resulting in additional flooding, but they’ll also result in slippery roads, so keep this in mind if you’re out driving.

Wind gusts could top 60 mph Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially south of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm system finally pulls away on Thursday, but winds may remain gusty, and a few lingering showers are also possible, especially across Cape Cod in the morning. High pressure builds in with some clearing and drier air later Thursday and Thursday night. Then things are nice for Friday and the weekend, right? Yeah, not so much. Another low pressure system will move out of the Midwest while an upper-level low pressure area also moves eastward. That means more rain developing at some point later Friday, and continuing off and on through the weekend. This storm shouldn’t be as potent as the one on Tuesday, so we probably won’t have as much wind or rain, but the weekend isn’t looking that great right now, and this includes trick-or-treating weather Sunday evening. Right now, the models have this storm a lot further north than the first storm, which would result in milder temperatures. There’s still a lot of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, so maybe it won’t be that bad (yeah, right). We should have a better idea what to expect when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Halloween weekend could be quite wet, but not as wet as the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers tapering off in the morning, with periods of drizzle and possibly another shower or two in the afternoon. High 48-55 north and west of I-95, 55-62 south and east of I-95, except 62-79 south of Route 44.

Monday night: Breezy with Rain likely. Low 43-50 north and west of Boston, 50-57 south and east.

Tuesday: Very windy with rain, heavy at times. High 50-57 north and west of Boston, 57-64 south and east.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers, very windy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with more showers likely. High 50-57.

Thursday: A lingering shower or two across Cape Cod early, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, especially north and west of Boston, still breezy near the coast. High 51-58.

Friday: Some early sun, then clouds return, rain develops at night, breezy. High 52-59.

Saturday: Periods of rain and showers. High 57-64.

Sunday: Cloudy with more rain and showers possible. High 57-64.

Weekend Outlook: October 22-25, 2021

It may be sunny and warm this afternoon, changes are coming, so enjoy it while you can.

Low pressure moving into southeastern Canada will send a cold front our way tonight. Ahead of it, a few showers are possible late tonight and early Friday, but the bulk of the rain with the system should stay well to our north and west. The cold front moves through on Friday, and although it will still be on the mild side, colder air will start to move in behind the front. High pressure settles in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions. Meanwhile, that cold front will be stalled out just south of New England, so even though most of us will be dry, we’ll still have some clouds around, especially the farther south you go. Could there be a shower or two across the Islands? Maybe, but it’s not a sure thing. We’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area passing north of the region. This will also generate some clouds as well, and possibly a pop-up shower or two each afternoon. Again, nothing to cancel plans over, but don’t be shocked if you see a few raindrops.

Temperatures at midday Saturday will be 10-18 degrees cooler compared to midday Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is where things become less certain. An area of low pressure moving out of the Ohio Valley will ride eastward along our stalled out front. Will it pass close enough to spread some rain into the region or will the high pressure area push it far enough to the south that it doesn’t have any impact? The forecast models have been all over the place with this idea, but for now, we’re leaning toward the drier scenario, but will put the chance of showers in the forecast just to cover ourselves. The second half of next week is looking quite wet at this point, but we’ll worry about that Monday morning with our Weekly Outlook.

The models don’t agree on whether Monday will be wet or dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers after midnight. Low 54-61.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, any showers end early. High 66-73.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cooler, slight chance for a shower. High 56-63.

Saturday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 37-44.

Sunday: Morning sunshine, clouds return in the afternoon. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers, especially south of Boston. Low 39-46.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly south of Boston. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: October 18-24, 2021

Cooler weather has finally arrived, and it will be here for part of the upcoming week.

A chilly night is expected across the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure continues to build into the region today with temperatures running a few degrees cooler than we had on Sunday. With an upper-level disturbance still moving through, we’ll see clouds develop, and a few pop-up showers are possible in the afternoon. High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions. By Wednesday, the high moves offshore, and a southwest flow will bring milder air back into the area. Thursday also looks warm, but clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches from the west. That front will move through Thursday night or early Friday with a few showers, but the bigger story is what happens behind the front. Friday’s temperatures will be determined by when the front moves through, but for now at least, it looks mild again, at least to start.

Thursday should be quite a mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Even cooler air settles into the region next weekend. Temperatures likely won’t get out of the 50s on Sunday, with many places likely dropping into the 30s at night. Before you complain too much, some of the models show the potential for lake-effect snow in parts of western and northern New York next weekend. We’ve also got to keep an eye on a low pressure system that may try and move up the coast on Saturday, but for now at least, it looks like it should stay offshore.

We’re keeping an eye on a potential system for Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a pop-up shower or two. High 54-61.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and quite cool. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 56-63.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 65-72.

Thursday: Sunshine gradually fades behind thickening clouds, showers may develop overnight. High 66-73.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for some showers early. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower. High 54-61.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: October 15-18, 2021

Fall is the season of change, and changes are coming this weekend in terms of the weather.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with another warm day expected under partly sunny skies. However, a strong cold front is marching eastward, and it will arrive on Saturday. Ahead of it, a warm front will move through Friday night, perhaps accompanied by a few showers. Saturday will be breezy and warm, but we’ll have plenty of clouds, with showers developing by late afternoon. Showers and some thunderstorms are likely through the evening, but should end before daybreak Sunday as the cold front finally crosses the region. Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions are likely for Sunday and Monday. While it will feel almost chilly at times, these temperatures will be right around normal for mid-October. Both Sunday and Monday will feature some sunshine, but with an upper-level disturbance moving through, we’ll have clouds developing, and just a slight chance for a shower each afternoon.

Temperatures at midday Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than at midday Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 68-75, possibly a little cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers. Low 57-64.

Saturday: A few sunny breaks, mainly early, but generally cloudy and breezy with showers possible late in the day. High 69-76.

Saturday night: Scattered showers, possibly some thunder as well. Low 49-56.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 60-67.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 42-49.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower. High 54-61.

Weekly Outlook: October 11-17, 2021

All the signs are there that we’re well into fall – the leaves are changing colors, baseball’s playoffs are in full swing, football is well into the season, hockey starts up this week, basketball next week, pumpkin flavored everything has invaded everywhere, but someone forgot to give Mother Nature the memo, as we’ve got some warm weather on the way for much of the week.

Normal high temperatures for mid-October are in the lower to middle 60s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with high pressure to the north and low pressure well south of New England. The low may produce a few showers near the South Coast this morning, but high pressure should eventually win out, with some sunshine developing during the afternoon. Even more sunshine and milder temperatures are expected on Tuesday as the high continues to build in. A weak system moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare except for some clouds and just a slight chance for a shower. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday with dry and warm conditions.

Temperatures will average 6-10 degrees above normal across the region this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next weekend is where things get a little uncertain. A cold front will be approaching the region, and it’s timing is still a bit of a question mark. Saturday looks quite mild at this point, but as the front draws nearer, some showers and possibly thunderstorms are likely ahead of it. Much of the day should remain dry, with showers holding off until nightfall, but this is far from certain. The front likely moves through at night, with much cooler air settling in on Sunday. However, if the front doesn’t move through until sometime Sunday, as at least one model shows, then Sunday could start off quite warm before temperatures drop during the afternoon. We should have better clarification of the timing of the front for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The timing of next weekend’s system is still in question. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A few showers near the South Coast early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. High 64-71.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 69-76.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69-76.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 69-76.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers and possibly some thunderstorms likely at night, breezy. High 68-75.

Sunday: Showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 61-68.

Weekend Outlook: October 8-11, 2021

Columbus Day Weekend has arrived, but it still won’t feel quite like fall just yet for the entire weekend.

High pressure remains in control through the 1st part of Friday with dry and mild conditions, but a backdoor cold front will drop down the coast, bringing cooler weather in for Friday night and Saturday. There may even be some drizzle or a few showers around at times too. High pressure builds back in for Sunday, but we’ll have to keep an eye on low pressure south of New England. There is still some question as to whether the rainfall from this system makes it into our area Sunday night and Monday. We’ll include the chance for showers in the forecast for now, but the most likely spot for any rain will be along the South Coast.

Most of the models aren’t terribly enthusiastic about the rain chances for Sunday night and Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Friday: Sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds. High 66-73.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle or a few showers. Low 47-54.

Saturday: Clouds and a few sunny breaks, some spotty drizzle or a shower are still possible. High 59-66.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds. High 61-68.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 50-57.

Monday: More clouds than sun, showers are possible again, mainly near the South Coast. High 66-73.

Weekly Outlook: October 4-10, 2021

A wet start to the week, then we dry out. Wet weather may return for the end of the week.

A frontal system is stalled out across the region, and waves of low pressure will ride along it, bringing in rain, some of it heavy, Monday and Monday night, with showers tapering off on Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday, with dry and gradually milder weather. Next weekend is a bit uncertain, as high pressure will remain to the north while low pressure tries to move up from the south. We’ll see which feature wins out.

Most of the models agree on a general 1-2 inches of rain by the end of the day Tuesday, with some showing heavier amounts. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, some of which may be heavy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Cloudy with more rain and showers. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 63-70.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, cooler. High 61-68.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Editorial note: Thursday’s Weekend Outlook is normally published during the mid-to-late afternoon. This week, it will likely not be published until sometime Thursday night, so you’ll probably be able to read it Friday morning.

Weekend Outlook: October 1-4, 2021

Most of the upcoming weekend should be pretty good weatherwise, but probably not all of it.

An upper-level low pressure area will pull away tonight, but a few showers are still possible through the first part of the night, mainly near the coastline. High pressure builds in for Friday into Saturday with drier conditions. While Friday should feature a decent amount of sunshine, Saturday will likely have more clouds as a weak system passes by to the north. Could it produce a few showers? Maybe, but mainly in southern New Hampshire.

Friday morning will be on the chilly side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Sunday is when things get really tricky. A low pressure area will be slowly moving in from the west, sending a warm front toward the region. The question is, how far north does the warm front get before stalling out? This will have a large impact on temperatures. Our best estimate at this point is that it will at least get up to the Mass Pike, but beyond that, we’re not sure. South of the warm front, it will be warm and humid, with temperatures likely getting into the 70s. North of the front it may stay in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The next question is – when does the rain move in? Right now, it looks like we may have some showers late Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the warm front, but that isn’t set in stone at this point. Late Sunday night into Monday do look wetter, but again, this is far from a lock.

Sunday’s temperatures will be determined by how far north the warm front gets. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible this evening, then skies clear out overnight. Low 40-47.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 60-67.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, slight chance for a sprinkle across southern New Hampshire. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower, mainly across southern New Hampshire. Low 50-57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few late-day showers. High 59-66 north of the Mass Pike, 67-74 south of the Pike.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 53-60.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 62-69.

Weekly Outlook: September 27 – October 3, 2021

Baseball’s regular season is in the home stretch, football is well underway, hockey is starting up, and pumpkin everything is showing up everywhere. It’s definitely fall now. Mother Nature is going to get in on the act this week too. Goodbye shorts, hello light jackets or sweatshirts.

It’s been a warm September, but changes are coming as we near the end of the month. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a warm note with high pressure still in control, but changes are coming. A cold front dropping southward will produce some showers tonight and Tuesday, with a rumble of thunder possible as well. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front to our south Wednesday night and Thursday, with another period of showers likely. Friday looks like a typical fall day to start October. An upper-level low pressure are will be moving across the region, bringing with it some clouds and possibly a few showers. High pressure should return for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

High temperatures may struggle to reach 60 on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any lingering showers end in the evening. Low 46-53.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 61-68.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some showers possible. High 57-64.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 60-67.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Weekend Outlook: September 24-27, 2021

Some rain is on the way, but much of the weekend looks decent weatherwise.

A slow-moving cold front will make its way across the region tonight and Friday, bringing plenty of clouds in, with some rain likely, mainly on Friday. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. We’re not expecting a widespread heavy rain like we had at times for most of the summer, but don’t expect to see much, if any, sunshine on Friday. The front pushes offshore Friday night, but showers may linger into Saturday morning across eastern Massachusetts. While there may be some sunshine developing, especially well west of Boston, during Saturday afternoon, clouds will linger in the east. Another wave of low pressure will ride up that front offshore, but will likely pass close enough to bring some rain back in for Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is a relatively new development in the models, but it shows up on several models, so we’re inclined to go with it. We should start to clear out again on Sunday, but an upper-level feature will be moving across the region, and it may kick off another shower or two during the afternoon. High pressure builds in for Sunday night and Monday with drier conditions.

Most of the heavy rain will be confined to western New England. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Sam has developed over 1700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is sat least 5 days away from potentially threatening any land areas, but Sam will definitely be a storm to watch. Most of the models develop Sam into a powerful hurricane over the weekend and early next week. Sam should continue on a west-northwest track across the Atlantic through the weekend. Beyond that? It’s still way too early to speculate on where Sam may go.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Sam. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 64-71.

Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm. High 71-78.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers ending from west to east. Low 55-62, a little milder across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers, mainly in eastern Massachusetts. High 68-75.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. Low 53-60.

Sunday: Any lingering showers end early, then becoming partly sunny with a chance for a late-day shower. High 68-75.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.