Extreme Temperatures, Weekly Outlook, Winter Weather

Weekly Outlook: November 11-17, 2019

Thank you to all that have served or continue to serve our nation. Image provided by the United States Army

Are you ready? Ready for Winter? It’s coming, and quickly. Better enjoy today, because after that, it’s going to get cold.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, but we’ll have plenty of clouds as a cold front begins to approach the region. That front will move through on Tuesday, with some rain likely ahead of it. Low pressure will develop along this front and move right across the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the low and the front, it will be somewhat mild, but once the front moves through in the afternoon, that’s when things start to happen.

NAM model forecast showing rain coming in ahead of the cold front, changing to snow before ending behind it. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Colder air comes surging in behind the front, and temperatures will quickly drop Tuesday afternoon. Rain will likely change over to sleet and snow from northwest to southeast. Now we’re not talking about a lot of snow, probably an inch or less in most spots, and mainly on grassy surfaces, but snow will be the least of the concerns. Gusty winds will help to dry out the roads, and ground temperatures remain fairly mild, but with temperatures dropping into the 20s by late Tuesday, we could see some ice developing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. So, if you’re going to be out and about Tuesday evening or night, use caution.

While there might be a pretty good snowstorm up north, around here, we’re not expecting much. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ve covered the snow potential, and the potential for slick roads, but here’s the biggest issue we’ll be dealing with – it’s going to be cold. When we say “cold”, we mean “COLD”. As in, record low temperatures Wednesday morning across most of the region. As in wind chills (another phrase most of you don’t like) in the single numbers (Fahrenheit, not Celsius). Yeah, it’s going to feel like January Tuesday night into Wednesday. Oh yeah, we forgot to mention that Wednesday may see highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

Any location that is circled is likely to set a record low temperatures Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Winds will diminish for Thursday, but it will remain chilly. Temperatures should start to moderate a little on Friday as high pressure slides offshore. Of course, another cold front comes through Friday night and then we get cold again next weekend, but probably not quite as cold as Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will still be well below normal.

Wind chills will be in the single numbers when most of you wake up Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 41-48 north and west of Boston, 49-56 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers developing late at night. Evening low 34-41 north and west of Boston, 42-49 south of Boston. Temperatures may rise after midnight

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, changing to sleet and snow during the afternoon. Morning high 42-49 north and west of Boston, 50-57 south of Boston, then temperatures quickly drop in the afternoon.

GFS forecast for temperatures starting at midnight tonight and ending at 7am Wednesday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday night: Any lingering snow showers end in the evening, then clearing, breezy, and colder. Low 13-20.

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, and cold. High 25-32.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few flurries are possible at night. High 34-41.

Friday: Sunshine to start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 4-10, 2019

Uh-oh. It’s that time. You’ve been dreading it, but you knew it was coming eventually. We’re going to use a four-letter word that you hate. That’s right, the word is “snow”. It is November after all, and your luck will run out eventually.

On average, our first measurable snow occurs in late October or early November across the region. Image provided by NOAA.

We’ll start the week under the influence of high pressure, so another dry and cool day is expected today. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing some showers, but they shouldn’t be too heavy or last that long. Ahead of the front, it actually might be a bit mild around here. Don’t get too used to it, because high pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and cool weather once again. This brings us to the end of the week.

Another cold front will move through on Thursday, with some rain likely. The front will likely stall out, but where it stalls is still a big question mark. It’s an important one too, as a wave of low pressure will likely ride along the front. One model has the front stall out well to the south, with the wave staying well offshore. This would allow high pressure to build in, and result in a dry but very cold Friday, and into the weekend. Other models have the front stall just south of the region, and the wave pass a lot closer. This would likely result widespread precipitation across the region, with at least some of it falling as snow across the interior, possibly even to the coastline. High pressure would then build in behind the storm for a dry and very chilly weekend.

The ECMWF model is not painting a pretty picture for Thursday night and Friday. We’ll be paying close attention to it and other models this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this storm, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to lean. On one hand, some of the models have been indicating for quite some time now the possibility of snow for parts of the area somewhere in the November 9-13 time frame. However, they’ve been changing with the details on nearly every run, so while our confidence has growing that we’d some “some” snow during that period, we really couldn’t go into deeper detail than that. At this point, we still can’t, because there is still little agreement with the models. However, should we end up dealing with a storm system, the closer you are to the coast, the less likely you’ll see accumulating snow. Ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so a wind blowing off the ocean would bring milder air in along the coast. Plus, the ground is still relatively mild. Sure, we could see some snow even at the coastline, but the better chance for accumulating snow would be north and west of Boston. The farther inland, the better the odds. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on the evolution of this system as the week goes on, and if needed, will write a special blog post later in the week.

Saturday looks like it is going to be quite chilly across the Northeast, no matter what happens before then. Time to pull out the winter clothes. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming cloudy with a few showers likely during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies become mostly clear. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 44-51.

Thursday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy with showers developing late in the day. Showers may change to snow overnight, especially north and west of Boston. High 47-54.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow north and west of Boston in the morning, chance of rain possibly mixed with wet snow from Boston southward. Skies will clear out late in the day. High 34-41.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

One final note – several models show the potential for another system towards the middle of next week that may also contain the “s” word. Welcome to winter!

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 28-November 3, 2019

Changes are coming, right about when we flip the calendar until November. Before that? Let’s just say that this will be a good week to get stuff done around the house in you’re not working.

The low pressure that brought us all the rain and wind yesterday? Yeah, it hasn’t gone too far away yet. It’ll keep some clouds around today, especially close to the coastline, with some patchy drizzle, fog, and maybe even a few showers. It may also help produce a little coastal flooding, as tides remain astronomically high, and persistent northeast to east winds will help push the water into the coastline.

The low starts to pull away Monday night and high pressure starts to build into the Canadian Maritimes, so things get better for Tuesday and Wednesday, right? Sorta. We’ll still have some residual moisture around thanks to easterly winds, that’ll keep clouds and maybe some drizzle or a few showers around. A weak trough of low pressure may bring in some additional showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The NAM model shows the little bits of moisture moving in from the ocean as drizzle today, and the showers moving in ahead of a trough early Wednesday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

OK, so once the trough moves through, things finally improve, right? Wrong, they go downhill even more. Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will move into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, we should get pretty mild around here, thanks to some gusty south to southwest winds. However, we’ll also have plenty of clouds and some rain, possibly a decent amount of rain. (For trick-or-treaters: Find an umbrella) A strong cold front brings an end to the rain sometime Friday morning or early afternoon.

Temperatures could be quite mild Friday morning before a strong cold front moves through. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Alright, so things will finally get better for next weekend, right? Yes and no. High pressure will build in, so we’ll have sunshine returning. That’s good. However, much cooler air will also move in (it will be November after all), and for some of you, that’s not a good thing. Also, don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time ends next Sunday morning at 2am. That means you get an extra hour of sleep!

A killing frost or freeze could be in the cards next Sunday night. If you’ve been resisting turning on your heat, that time may finally be coming. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Low clouds, fog, drizzle, maybe a few sunny breaks well inland in the morning. High 51-58.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some drizzle and fog around. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a chance for some drizzle or a shower, a few sunny breaks are also possible. High 53-60.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers likely. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and milder with a few showers around. High 60-67.

Thursday (Halloween): Cloudy, breezy, and mild with scattered showers. High 59-66.

Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 61-68 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, much cooler. High 49-56.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Finally, we’ve seen plenty of people releasing their “Winter Outlook” over the past week or two, and more will be coming in the next few weeks. Lots of these will fail spectacularly, others may end up close to the truth. But we’re going to give you ours right now. Not only that, we’re going to guarantee that it’s 100% accurate! You read that right. So, without further delay, here’s our outlook: The months of December through March will be colder than temperatures are now, and there will be some snow. If you want any more details than that, we’ll keep providing them through the winter, 7 days at a time, more often when there are storms.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 21-27, 2019

Who likes rain? Well, you’ve got some coming this week. What about mild weather? That’s coming as well. Cool weather instead? Yup, we’ve got that too. What about snow? Sorry, none of that…..yet.

We’ve got nothing like this in the forecast, but 40 years ago this week, we had temperatures well into the 80s across the area, just 10 days after much of the region received some measurable snow. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with what’s left of “Tropical Storm Nestor” (we’re not convinced it was ever really a tropical storm), south and east of the Cape and Islands. Any lingering showers from the storm end in the morning, with some clearing taking place in the afternoon, especially the farther north you go. The clouds come right back in Monday night as a frontal system starts to move in from the west. That front will bring in some showers, mainly late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

We’re not expecting a lot of rain for most of us Tuesday night, but a few places could see some appreciable amounts. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the front moves offshore on Wednesday, skies start to clear out as high pressure builds in. That will bring us dry and seasonably mild weather for Thursday. However, another system will start to move in later Friday with another round of showers expected late Friday and Friday. High pressure builds in behind the system with dry and cooler conditions for next weekend. While we’re fairly sure Saturday will be dry, Sunday may not be. One model shows the potential for another storm to move in, with rain by late in the day. A second model holds the rain off until Sunday night, while a third keeps the system south of the region entirely. We’re going to lean towards a dry forecast for now, but it’s low confidence at this time.

Monday: Some lingering clouds and a few showers across southeastern Massachusetts, becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 56-63.

Monday night: Clouds return. Low 42-49.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late in the day. High 53-60.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, a few of which may be heavy. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Breezy with showers ending early then clouds gradually give way to afternoon sunshine. High 59-66.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 57-64.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely late in the day and at night. High 57-64.

Saturday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, then a mix of sun and clouds and cooler in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late in the day and at night. High 49-56.

Looking ahead to next week, it looks like some cooler air is going to settle into the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 14-20, 2019

We’ve got good news and bad news for this week’s forecast. Good news: Some mild weather is expected. Bad news, some rain is expected as well. But wait, we need the rain, so maybe that’s good news too! Let’s get to the details.

We start the week off with an area of low pressure passing south of the region. It may produce some showers this morning across the Cape and the Islands and possibly the South Coast, but by afternoon, we’ll see sunshine in most places. A weak cold front moves through this evening, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday into part of Wednesday. This will result in more sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures.

Precipitation amounts have been well below normal since the middle of July across much of the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Later Wednesday, a coastal storm will start to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and head northeastward, likely passing very close to, if not right over, the Cape and Islands. As this storm gets wound up, it will bring some gusty winds to the region, especially on Thursday as it moves into the Gulf of Maine. It will also produce some rainfall. Many of the models are indicating the potential for some heavy rainfall. However, these same models went for heavy rainfall with the last few similar storms, and for the most part, it didn’t materialize. Plus, we’ve been very dry lately. We’re not in a drought yet, but things have been trending that way. When we are in drought, most storms seem to under-perform rainfall-wise, compared to what the models show. Since we’ve been burned on the last couple of storms, we’re of the opinion that we need to see it to believe it. Yes, we’re expecting rain Wednesday night into part of Thursday, but we’re not buying the “heavy rain” aspect just yet (but you can bet some of the TV guys will because they need something to hype).

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or more are possible behind the storm on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in behind the storm on Friday with some cooler weather as an upper-level low pressure area crosses the Northeast. After that, the high moves offshore, and we warm up again next weekend. In fact, don’t be surprised if we top 70 again on Sunday. The warm weather may even remain in place for the beginning of the following week as well.

Sunday is looking like a rather nice mid-October day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: A few showers in the morning across the Cape and possibly the South Coast, otherwise skies will become partly to mostly sunny. High 63-70.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Some morning sunshine, then clouds move in during the afternoon. Breezy at times with rain developing towards the evening commute and continuing overnight. High 57-64.

Thursday: Windy with showers ending in the morning from southwest to northeast, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 51-58.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, still breezy. High 53-60.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 56-63.

Sunday: More sunshine. High 63-70.

We’d like to wish a Happy Thanksgiving to our neighbors North of the Border.
Standard
Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Rain/Snow, Winter Weather

Boston May Need an Ark, Bismarck Needs a Plow

Two developing storm systems – one off the East Coast and one in Plains, will both wreak havoc in the next few days, but for very different reasons.

Two low pressure areas are developing off the East Coast early this morning. The northern system is the stronger of the two, but the southern one is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. It has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or subtropical storm later today. Whether it does or not, these two low pressure areas will eventually merge and become a rather strong non-tropical system over the next 24 hours. There is very little in the way of steering currents right now, so the system will just meander around off the coast until Saturday.

Low pressure won’t be in a hurry to go anywhere off the East Coast for the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

As the system drifts northward, it will produce gusty winds along the coast, especially in New England. Tides are astronomically low at the moment, but will be rising later this week, so coastal flooding, while not a major concern, will still be possible in some locations. A coastal flood watch has been issued for parts of Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and Martha’s Vineyard. Rough seas will also be a large concern for marine interests, with Storm Warnings now in effect offshore. However, the biggest concern and also the biggest question mark right now is heavy rainfall.

Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across much of Southern New England. Yeah, that blows. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While the storm will likely spread some heavy rainfall into New England, there is still plenty of uncertainty as to how far north the heavy rain gets, as well as how much rain actually falls. Some of the models are producing extremely heavy rainfall, with totals in excess of 10″ in southeastern Massachusetts! While we aren’t buying the extreme totals, the fact that most of the models are showing this potential means that some very heavy rain is likely, especially south of Boston, where a Flood Watch has been issued.

That’s a lot of water coming out of the sky over the next 3 days. Some models have even more than this! Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thanks to some dry weather over the past couple of months, we shouldn’t have to worry about any flash flooding, though downpours will result in ponding of water on roadways, and some locations normally prone to flooding in heavy rain will also have problems. However, since we’re expecting a prolonged period of heavy rain, flooding is still a possibility in some locations, other than the ones we just mentioned, especially some of the smaller streams and rivers. Strong winds will also start to take some of the leaves off of trees, which may clog up storm drains, resulting in some flooding as well.

Recent dryness means that flash flooding is not likely in New England with this storm. Image provided the the Northeast River Forecast Center.

While all this is taking place off the East Coast, some very cold air will settle into the Rockies and Plains states as low pressure starts to develop across the Central Plains. Record lows are likely to be set in numerous locations over the next few mornings across the region. This system will head north-northeastward while strengthening. The system isn’t expected to become that strong, but with a large high pressure area building in behind it, it will produce some strong winds. It will also draw warm and moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As this air runs into the much colder air on the backside of the storm, the first significant snowstorm of the season is expected to develop across the Northern Plains.

Winter Storm Watches and warnings have been posted from parts of Idaho Montana, and Wyoming into parts of northern Nebraska and the Dakotas as well as northwestern Minnesota. across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible, with some heavier amounts in the higher elevations. The biggest issues are expected across the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph or more are expected across the Northern Plains. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The precipitation will start as rain across this area later today, but strong northerly winds will usher much colder weather in, changing the rain to snow from west to east on Thursday. Like its East Coast counterpart, this storm won’t move at a rapid pace, so snow, possibly heavy at times will continue across this area into early Saturday, with snow showers lingering into Sunday.

This storm also has some questions with it’s precipitation shield. While heavy snow is likely across a large area, how much falls and where the heaviest snow will fall is still a question. Right now, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall from central South Dakota into central and eastern North Dakota, but that still could change. As for amounts, many areas could see more than a foot, with totals in excess of 2 feet possible in some areas. The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting to 40-50 mph, resulting in blizzard conditions, especially late Thursday into Friday.

Welcome to winter! Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible across the Dakotas. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

While snow in October is not unusual across this region, snowfall amounts of this magnitude this early in the year are extraordinarily rare. In Grand Forks, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record occurred October 24-26, 2001, and it dropped 10.9″ on the city. In Fargo, ND, the largest October snowstorm on record is only 8.1″ on October 30-31, 1951. For Pierre, SD, the October snowstorm of record occurred October 30-31, 1943, and it only produce 7.2″ of snow. Current model forecasts are forecasting amounts that are 3-4 times the records. These model forecasts are likely too high, but it seems likely that many of these October records are going to be obliterated in the next few days. Hopefully, this is not a sign of what’s to come this winter.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 7-13, 2019

Remember all that sunshine and the warm temperatures that we had in September? Yeah, that’s not in this week’s forecast. This week will be a reminder of what October is usually like around here.

We’re not in a drought yet, but it’s been dry for quite a while now and we need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Monitor.

The week starts off with a mild day, but with plenty of clouds. An approaching cold front will bring in some showers by late afternoon, with some downpours possible during the evening and into the night. The rain comes to an end as the front pushes offshore, but it will stall out just south of the region. High pressure tries to build in from the north of Tuesday, but clouds may hang tough across southern parts of the region with the front just offshore, and a few showers are possible near the south coast.

The heaviest rain looks like it will stay north and west of us, but some downpours are possible along the South Coast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

By late Tuesday, low pressure will develop off the North Carolina coast and start drifting northward. It’s not going to move too much though with a ridge of high pressure off to the north and east, but the big question is – how far north does it actually get. Right now, it looks close enough to spread some occasional rain into the region by Tuesday night, mainly south of the Mass Pike, but possibly up into parts of New Hampshire and southern Maine. It will also produce east to northeast winds that may be gusty at times. This will result in some rather cool temperatures.

Oh, did we mention that the low will likely sit there until late Saturday when a cold front finally kicks it out to sea? Yeah, that means cool and occasionally wet conditions from Tuesday night into Saturday. Doesn’t that sound…..awful? (OK, that’s probably not a strong enough word, but we didn’t want to resort to profanity). High pressure finally brings drier weather in for Sunday behind the cold front.

Low pressure is just going to sit and spin off the East Coast for much of the upcoming week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

One note about that cold front, the system generating the front will be moving across parts of the Plains states and the Upper Midwest before moving into southern Canada. Before crossing the border, it could produce quite the snowstorm across parts of the Northern Plains later this week. Parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota could see a couple of feet of snow. While they get snow quite often in the winter, they usually don’t get this much at once, and even for places like Minnesota and North Dakota, this is a little early in the year for a storm to produce that much snow. For example, in Grand Forks, ND, home of the University of North Dakota, the largest October snowstorm on record is 10.9″ from October 24-26, 2001. In Bemidji, MN, the October snowstorm record is just 8.0″, done twice – October 18-20, 1917, and again October 29-30, 1932.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing late in the day from west to east. High 68-75.

Monday night: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly a few downpours. Low 49-56.

Tuesday: Some sunshine may develop across southern New Hampshire, mostly cloudy elsewhere with a few showers possible across the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 60-67.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with showers possible, mainly south of Boston. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Breezy and cool with periods of rain and showers likely. High 53-60.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool again with occasional showers and drizzle. High 52-59.

Friday: More clouds, more drizzle, more showers at times too. High 55-62.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks possible, but also some more showers and drizzle at times. High 57-64.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

Standard