Weekly Outlook: April 12-18, 2021

One of our colleagues called the current weather pattern a “quiet active pattern”, which is a very good way to describe the week ahead.

In the big picture, we’ve got an upper-level low pressure area in place for today into Tuesday before it moves out, but another one moves in for the end of the week and the start of the weekend. Looking a little closer, we’ve got some typical April weather, but since this is New England and not Florida, a lot of you probably won’t like it. Low pressure passes south of the region today into early Tuesday, with plenty of clouds around and a chilly east wind off the Atlantic. Some showers are possible, mainly today, but we’re not looking at widespread rainfall. Wednesday looks a little drier as high pressure tries to build in with some partial sunshine and mild temperatures.

Temperatures will average close to normal around here over the next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The end of the week isn’t looking pretty at this point. As that second upper-level low pressure area moves eastward on Thursday, a low pressure area will likely spin up at the surface near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As it gets caught up under the upper-level low, it will meander around near or just south of New England. The result will be chilly conditions, some gusty winds at times, and periods of rain from later Thursday into Saturday. But that’s not the entire story. With colder air aloft, we could see the rain change over to snow, with some accumulation in the higher terrain, such as the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Could we see snow mix in at lower elevations? Sure, it’s possibility, but accumulations aren’t likely (though not impossible). Remember, it was this same weekend last year (April 17-18), when we had a storm drop 3-6″ of snow on the hills, with up to an inch of snow across the rest of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this situation when we do our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Models are showing the potential for snow, especially in the hills, at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once the system pulls away, conditions will slowly improve over the weekend as high pressure starts to build in.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers possible. High 44-51.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks. High 52-59, cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing, possibly changing to snow in the hills at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow at times, especially in the hills. High 35-42 north and west of Boston, 43-50 south of Boston.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers gradually ending. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 54-61, cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: April 9-12, 2021

We’re still under the influence of a blocking pattern, which means that changes in our weather will be slow to take place, but there are changes coming.

Right now, we’re on the “good side” on the block, with high pressure in place. That will give us dry and mild to warm conditions through Saturday. Seabreezes will keep coastal areas much cooler, since ocean temperatures are still in the 40s, but away from the coast, temperatures will get well into the 60s and 70s for the next few days.

Saturday is shaping up to be a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As everything slides eastward. changes occur later in the weekend. We’ll see clouds start streaming in late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure starts to move out of the Midwest. Some rain will move in ahead of the system on Sunday, though the day itself probably won’t be a washout. The main storm system will remain in the Midwest, but a secondary area of low pressure will develop and pass south of New England Sunday night and Monday, with some additional showers possible.

We’re not in a drought yet, but we do need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

With the cloudcover and shower activity, it goes without saying that Sunday and especially Monday should be significantly cooler than Friday and Saturday, though Sunday is a bit of a wild card. Most of the models have a backdoor cold front move through around daybreak on Sunday, which results in a chilly day with east winds and temperatures holding steady in the 40s to lower 50s. There is one exception though. The Canadian model (full disclaimer: It’s not usually a good model), delays that backdoor cold front until mid-afternoon Sunday. While this isn’t much of a change in timing, it has a significant effect on the forecast. Instead of temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s, it has temperatures in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday ahead of the front, but then they quickly plunge into the 40s during the afternoon as the front moves through. For now, this is an outlier, but given the pattern that we’re in, a delay of 6-12 hours isn’t that far-fetched. With that in mind, we’re going to lean a little warmer than most of the models for Sunday (for now). If the rest of them are correct, then our forecast is too warm. If the Canadian model is right, then our forecast could be as much as 10-20 degrees too cool.

Most of the models, except for the Canadian and Regional Canadian model, are forecasting a chilly day on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 66-73, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Cloudy with showers likely. High 54-61.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Low 36-43.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: April 5-11, 2021

Much of this week will feature conditions that are fairly typical for April in New England. That’s good if you live away from the coastline. Near the coast? No so much.

Low pressure south of Nova Scotia was sending clouds into eastern New England early this morning. Loop provided by NOAA.

The week starts off with low pressure off to the east slowly drifting southward. This will keep clouds in place across eastern New England with a few showers possible. We’ll also have northeast winds blowing off the still-chilly Atlantic, resulting in cool temperatures. The farther inland you head, the more likely you are to see sunshine and temperatures that are warmer than normal. Tuesday looks somewhat similar, but as the low pulls away, the small chance for showers we have today goes with it. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday through Friday with sunshine for much of the region along with seasonably mild temperatures.

Drought conditions are starting to develop across parts of the Northeast once again, so we need some rain. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Next weekend is where things get tricky again. High pressure will slide offshore on Friday as low pressure starts to approach from the southwest. For the weekend, there are some models that show the high remaining in place, keeping the region dry, but trending cooler. Other models have the rain from the system moving in, resulting in a damp and cool weekend. We’re going to lean on the dry side for now with the forecast, but obviously, the other scenario is just as plausible, so this is a low-confidence forecast. We should have a much better idea by the time we get to our weekend outlook on Thursday.

Will it rain this weekend? Some models say yes, some say no. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few showers along the coast. High 53-60, a little cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 52-59, a little cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56 along the coast, 57-64 inland.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55 along the coast, 56-63 inland.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56 along the coast, 57-64 inland.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 52-59, a little cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 51-58, a little cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: April 2-5, 2021

We’ve got a fairly nice weekend coming up weather-wise, and a second crack at Opening Day after it was rained out today.

Low pressure will pull away from the region tonight, but an upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Northeast for Friday. So, even though we’ll start to clear out late tonight, clouds will come back on Friday. It will also be quite chilly by early April standards. While we’re not expecting any record lows, temperatures won’t be that far off from the records Friday night. High pressure then builds in for the weekend and into Monday, with dry and milder conditions. The only exception for now will be Sunday. An upper-level disturbance will move across the region, with some clouds and possibly a sprinkle or two.

Average highs in early April should be in the lower to middle 50s.

There is one potential fly in the ointment. The upper-level low that moves across the region on Friday will settle into Atlantic Canada this weekend and early next week. This will help to setup a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. At some point early next week, that upper low will drift westward, sending some clouds and perhaps some rain into the region. Right now, it looks like that may not happen until Monday night and Tuesday, but if it happens a little quicker than anticipated, Monday may not be a great day.

The models keep the rain on Monday to our east for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for Fenway tomorrow for Opening Day – it won’t be the nicest of days, but it will be better than today. For first pitch at 2:10pm, skies should be partly sunny, winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph, and temperatures should be around 40.

Thursday night: A lingering rain or snow shower this evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return. High 40-47.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Saturday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds move in overnight. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, slight chance for a sprinkle. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: March 29-April 4, 2021

While there will be a couple of chilly days this week, we’ve also got some more typical spring weather coming, and the best sign yet that winter is just about done – Red Sox Opening Day!

We start the week off on a breezy and chilly note in the wake of a cold front with high pressure building into the region. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings are in effect through this afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are possible. Temperatures will be below normal for late March, with the wind making it feel even colder, but the chill won’t last long. High pressure moves off to the east on Tuesday and we quickly see temperatures start to moderate.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are possible, mainly this morning and early afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Wednesday looks to be milder, but clouds will be streaming back in as another storm system moves toward the region. This system will bring in some showers by Wednesday afternoon, with some steady rain possible at night into Thursday morning. The rain looks to end by midday, with much cooler air moving in behind the system. This may allow the rain to mix with wet snow before ending. Of course, when the rain (or mix) ends is crucial, since first pitch at Fenway is scheduled to take place just after 2pm. Right now, it looks cloudy with some sunny breaks possible before the game ends. Temperatures will only be in the lower 40s, with wind chills in the 30s. Not exactly baseball weather, but not out of the ordinary for April 1.

Thursday is Opening Day, and the Red Sox can’t possibly be as bad as last year, right? Image provided by Major League Baseball.

High pressure builds back in on Friday with colder weather, but again, it will be short-lived. As the high moves offshore, temperatures will moderate back to near to above normal levels next weekend.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and windy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 54-61, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 37-44.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with showers developing in the afternoon, becoming a steady rain at night. High 60-67, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain, possibly mixed with some wet snow, ending around midday. High 49-56 in the morning, temperatures drop into the 40s during the afternoon.

Friday: Partly sunny and chilly. High 37-44.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 46-53.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 53-60.

Weekend Outlook: March 26-29, 2021

We can often get some wild swings in weather in late March, and while this weekend’s won’t be that dramatic, we do have some big changes coming.

As skies clear out this afternoon, temperatures will jump into the upper 60s and 70s. Loop provided by the College of DuPage.

Unseasonably warm conditions will remain in place this afternoon into Friday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. This is the same system responsible for all of the severe weather down South today. We’ll stay warm ahead of the system into early Friday before some rain moves in. With mild air in place, don’t be surprised if we have a rumble of thunder with the shower activity Friday morning. A cold front will be moving toward the region during the day, and ahead of it, temperatures could get close to 70 again, if we can get any sunshine.

At least one model shows the potential for Friday to be very warm ahead of a cold front. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

That front will move through late in the day, possibly with some more showers or thunderstorms. Behind it, gusty winds will usher cooler air into the region. While this shouldn’t be as potent as the last couple of wind events we’ve had, it could be enough to take down a few trees or power lines. High pressure then builds in for Saturday with sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. By Sunday, another system quickly moves in, with rain likely. Since it’s been a dry month, we really need the rain, even though it’ll make for a rather damp Sunday. Rain ends Sunday night as the system drags a cold front across the region, then high pressure returns on Monday with sunshine and much cooler conditions.

Precipitation has been well below normal across the region since the start of the year. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Thursday night: Cloudy with some areas of fog likely, showers developing by daybreak. Low 47-54.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, mainly during the morning, maybe a thunderstorm too, some late-day clearing is possible, becoming breezy. High 64-71, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 39-46.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to move back in late in the day. High 53-60, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Increasing clouds. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers ending, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 33-40.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: March 22-28, 2021

We’ve got a fantastic stretch of weather coming up for a good chunk of the upcoming week thanks to a large area of high pressure.

Dry and mild conditions are expected through at least the first part of Wednesday thanks to a large area of high pressure. Along the coast, temperatures will be cooler, thanks to a seabreeze each of the next few afternoons, but once you get inland, temperatures should reach the 60s each day. Things could be a little tricky on Wednesday however. Low pressure will meander off to the south for the first half of the week, with little impact on us. However, by late Wednesday it will start to lift out, sending some clouds in along with the possibility of a few showers. If the showers are more widespread than we currently expect or the clouds are thicker, temperatures could end up quite a bit cooler than our forecast currently shows.

A little rain is possible late Wednesday, but not all of the models agree on it. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure then builds back in south of the region, resulting in southwesterly winds bringing even milder air in for Thursday, possibly right to the coastline. Unfortunately, we’ll also have more cloudcover, as another low pressure area makes its way into the eastern Great Lakes. With enough sunshine, temperatures could top 70 degrees in many spots. That system will bring us some rain for Thursday night into Friday as it passes to our north and west, before a cold front crosses the region during the day on Friday. Friday’s temperatures will be dependent on the timing of the front, the later it moves through, the more likely that it’ll be warmer. If the rain lingers long enough and the cold air moves in fast enough, some wet snow could mix in before everything winds down. We don’t expect this to be the case, but can’t completely rule it out just yet.

Temperatures could reach 70 on Thursday, depending on how much sunshine we get. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind that front, more seasonable conditions are expected for Saturday, but Sunday is where things could get interesting again. Another low pressure system will head toward the region, with some rain possible by late Sunday or Sunday night. The problem is, we’ll have some cold air nearby, so it may not be just rain, at least for part of the region. There’s a chance we could have some snow from this system, especially the farther north and west you go from Boston. This is hardly a lock, and things will change numerous times between now and then, but it’s just another example that even though it’s now Spring, that doesn’t mean we’re entirely done with Winter just yet.

A few members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for at least a little snow Sunday night. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Lots of sunshine. High 57-64, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon high clouds. High 57-64, cooler along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Wednesday: Thickening clouds with some showers possible during the afternoon and evening. High 52-59, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine. High 62-69, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, possibly mixing with wet snow before ending at night. High 58-65, cooler along the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, cooler. High 53-60.

Sunday: Early sun, then becoming cloudy with rain possible late in the day and at night, possibly mixed with some wet snow well to the north and west. High 49-56.

Weekend Outlook: March 19-22, 2021

Spring doesn’t start until Saturday morning, and Mother Nature is going to remind us of that fact.

The storm system responsible for all the severe weather over the past few days will pass south of the region tonight, with rain likely. However, as colder air settles in tonight, we’ll see that rain change over to snow from north to south. We’re not expecting much snow, with most places likely seeing an inch or less, possibly 2 inches in a few spots. That’ll be just enough to remind you that it’s still technically winter.

We’ll have a little snow overnight, but it won’t last too long. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll clear out Friday afternoon, but it will be windy and chilly. After that, high pressure builds in for the weekend with sunshine and moderating temperatures. We’ll get into the 40s on Saturday, while Sunday and Monday will see temperatures in the 50s and possibly 60s.

Temperatures could approach 60 on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Breezy with rain likely, changing to wet snow, ending by daybreak. Low 21-28.

Friday: Early clouds, then clearing and windy in the afternoon. High 33-40.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 48-55, coolest along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 26-33.

Sunday: Sunny and milder. High 53-60, coolest along the coast.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 54-61, coolest along the coast.

Weekly Outlook: March 15-21, 2021

Astronomical Spring officially begins Saturday morning at 5:37am, but it’s going to feel likely winter for a couple more days.

Spring begins Saturday morning. Image provided by EarthSky.org

Most of this week will be fairly dry, as today will be with high pressure building in. Today will also be quite cold, with many places likely not reaching the 30-degree mark. Add in a little wind, especially this morning, and it definitely won’t feel like mid-March, with wind chills in the single numbers and teens. As the high slides off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate a bit on Tuesday, but it will remain on the chilly side. Clouds will also start to move back in ahead of a weak low pressure system. That system will pass to sour south Tuesday night and Wednesday, but may produce a few snow showers, especially near the South Coast. We’re not expecting anything to accumulate, and for the bulk of the region, we’re not expecting much, if anything, to even fall from the clouds.

Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees below normal today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll see some sunshine return on Wednesday to parts of the area along with temperatures continuing to moderate. However, the next system moves in for Thursday into Friday. This one doesn’t look as weak or as far south, but temperatures will be a bit milder to start. We could see some rain or snow showers, especially Thursday night into Friday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike, but again, this does not look like a big deal. Colder weather will settle in on Friday as the system pulls away, but temperatures will moderate again over the weekend thanks to high pressure building back in.

Some models show the possibility for a little snow Thursday night into Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy, especially in the morning. High 23-30.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 9-16.

Tuesday: Early sun, then thickening clouds. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers possible, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, some sunny breaks are possible across southern New Hampshire. High 43-50.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some showers possible, maybe mixing with snow at night. High 49-56.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and colder, with a chance of snow showers. High 33-40.

Saturday: A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 42-49.

Sunday: Lots of sunshine, milder. High 47-54.

Weekend Outlook: March 12-15, 2021

After today’s warm weather, it is definitely time for change, with cooler weather working its way into the region over the next few days.

Temperatures have reached or exceeded 70 across much of the region this afternoon. Image provided by NOAA.

A cold front moves crosses the area late tonight with some clouds and possibly a shower or two, but the more noticeable impact will be cooler temperatures on Friday. Late Friday, a stronger cold front will move through. Like the first one, there will be little moisture with this front, but gusty northwest winds may create some issues at night, but not nearly as bad as the front from a week and a half ago. They will also bring much cooler weather in for Saturday. Winds will diminish during the day on Saturday with sunshine and temperatures closer to where they should be in mid-March. Sunday should be fairly similar with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures, but winds may pick up a little. Monday also looks dry but breezy and even colder, with most places staying in the 30s all day.

Average high temperatures for the middle of March are in the middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 45-52.

Friday: A few showers near the South Coast and Cape Cod early, otherwise becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 55-62.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, windy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy during the morning. High 38-45.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunny, breezy, and colder. High 28-35.