Weekend Outlook: August 12-15, 2022

We got rid of the heat a couple of days ago, the humidity will follow soon.

A cold front will approach the region tonight, with just a couple of showers accompanying the front when it moves through early Friday. After that, high pressure builds in for the weekend with temperatures at or below normal, and significantly lower humidity levels. An upper-level disturbance will move through on Saturday which may trigger a stray shower or two, but most of us will remain dry. Sunday looks like the best day of the week bunch with warm and dry conditions and a good amount of sunshine.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s on Saturday, which is roughly below normal for mid-August. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday is the transition day. Many of the models are showing the potential for some significant rainfall during the early to middle part of next week with an offshore low pressure system. Given recent trends and the ongoing drought, we are obviously skeptical that this will happen, but the models are in decent agreement for now. Assuming this trend continues, we’ll see clouds move in on Monday, with some showers possible by late in the day. We’ll obviously have more details and more confidence in what will happen when we publish our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Some of the models show the potential for significant rainfall early next week. We’re highly skeptical that it will happen. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, some patchy fog is possible, especially near the coast. Low 60-67.

Friday: A few lingering showers early, otherwise clouds and some sunshine, not as humid. High 75-82.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers may develop by late in the day. High 76-83.

Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekend Outlook: August 5-8, 2022

Heat and humidity are here, and there’s not going away for a while.

A Bermuda high pressure area will remain anchored off the East Coast for the next several days. It will continue to pump hot and humid air into the region. There will be some relief at times, but overall, we’ll stay hot and humid through at least Monday. A cold front will try to approach on Friday, and it will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. This will not only provide relief, but also help with our worsening drought. Unfortunately, we need a lot more rain, and this won’t do the trick. That front will essentially dissipate before moving through, so the heat will continue. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up each afternoon this weekend, but they’ll be widely scattered, so most of us may not see one. Another front approaches on Monday, and this one may have a little more “oomph” to it. It may produce more showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but it likely doesn’t move through until Tuesday.

Friday’s thunderstorms could drop heavy downpours in spots, but coverage could be spotty. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Friday: Early sun, then increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers taper off in the evening. Low 67-74.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-20 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 69-76.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 86-93. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Weekly Outlook: August 1-7, 2022

The final month of meteorological summer begins the way the last one ended – with more warm weather.

We’re actually starting the week off with some clouds, and possibly a few showers near the South Coast as a weak disturbance passes south of the region this morning. However, skies should clear out during the afternoon, with a warm and humid afternoon expected. Tuesday looks even warmer and more humid, but with a weak trough of low pressure moving through, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Wednesday looks to be another hot day, but it may not be quite as humid. Thursday certainly looks like the hottest day of this stretch, with some of the models are showing the potential for parts of the region to reach 100 degrees again on Thursday. We’re not quite sure it’ll be that hot, but some upper 90s are certainly plausible.

Rainfall is well below normal across the region since the start of April. The little rain we’ll get today and Tuesday won’t help much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Friday is the uncertain day of the week. We’ll have a cold front crossing the region, likely producing some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be determined by how quickly the front moves in, and how much cloudcover there is. The potential is there for much of the region to top 90 once again with muggy conditions. The next question is, how far south does the front get before stalling out. This will determine when we clear out on Saturday or the clouds linger along with the chance for more showers. Either way, temperatures should be cooler. High pressure should build in for Sunday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.

Friday could end up as another hot day across the region, but not all of the models agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few showers near the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 82-89.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 85-92.

Thursday: More sunshine. High 92-99, a little cooler near the South Coast.

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and at night. High 86-93.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, lingering showers possible in the morning. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 85-92.

Weekend Outlook: July 29 – August 1, 2022

We really need some rain, and some of us will get a little, but not nearly enough, and for the most part, it shouldn’t impact your weekend plans.

Drought conditions are worsening across the region, and little improvement is expected for a while. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

A few showers and thunderstorms are likely through this evening as a weak disturbance moves through, then skies may start to clear out a bit. Friday likely starts off with some sunshine, but a stronger front will be approaching. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely late Friday and into Friday night. Some models are showing the potential for the front to linger near the South Coast and keep the showers going through the night, but given the ongoing drought and recent trends, we’re not expecting a lot of rain, and it will likely be done before daybreak.

Some beneficial rain may fall in southern New Hampshire, but the rest of the region needs a lot more. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in for the weekend and into Monday. This results in plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures, and fairly low dewpoints. In other words, nearly perfect weather for the end of July and start of August. There are some indications that heat and humidity will return next week, but we’ll worry about that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday.

Dewpoints will be in the 50s across much of the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Some showers or thunderstorms around in the evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Friday: Morning sun, then clouds return with some showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 84-91. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in late-day showers.

Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 61-68.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 81-88. Offshore: West winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-4 feet.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 59-66.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 82-89. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93. Offshore: Southwest winds 5-15 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Weekly Outlook: July 25-31, 2022

The final week of July will not be as hot as last week was, but there will still be episodes of humidity to deal with.

After Sunday’s record-breaking heat, which topped 100 in places, today won’t be as hot with a cold front approaching the region. We’ll have plenty of cloud cover with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Some of the storms could be quite potent, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours. There is even a risk for a tornado. While the threat of severe weather exists from Maine to Virginia, around here, we think it’ll be mostly north and west of I-95 where the strongest storms occur, as usual. We could still see some strong storms in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, so don’t let your guard down if you’ll be in that neck of the woods during the afternoon.

Severe weather looks like a decent bet across the Northeast today. Image provided Pivotal Weather.

While temperatures will be “cooler” today they’ll still be in the 80s, possibly near 90 in spots if we can get enough sunshine in the morning. Of course, if we get some sunshine, that will also help to fuel some stronger thunderstorms. It’ll also be a much more humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s, so it’ll feel nearly as hot as Sunday was. As a result, the National Weather Service extended the Heat Advisory for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island until 5pm today.

It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees early this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The cold front moves offshore tonight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. Temperatures should still reach the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 50s and lower 60s. The next system approaches on Thursday, so we’ll turn warmer and more humid once again, with some showers and thunderstorms likely late Thursday into Friday. At this time, it doesn’t look like the threat for severe weather is as significant as today, but it’s still a few days away, so we’ll keep monitoring things. High pressure builds back in next weekend with seasonably warm and drier weather once again.

Tuesday will be much more comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could be strong to severe. High 85-92.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies gradually clear out. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 83-90.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 22-25, 2022

Hot Hot Hot. Buster Poindexter’s song is also for the forecast for the next few days.

Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening as a frontal system pushes offshore, then skies clear out overnight. Drier air settles in for Friday and Saturday, with dewpoints in the 50s Friday and 60s Saturday, but it will remain hot, with temperatures well into the 90s in many locations. Sunday is shaping up to be a rather hot and humid day as another frontal system approaches the region. Temperatures should be well into the 90s again with high to oppressive humidity. Some models are showing the potential for triple-digit temperatures north and west of Boston, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. We’re not sure it gets quite that hot, but upper 90s are a distinct possibility. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely late Sunday night, and again on Monday as another frontal system crosses the region. Humidity levels will start dropping again later on Monday, but it will remain warm, with highs well into the 80s, and some places could top 90 once again.

Sunday is looking like a very hot day across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

If you’re curious about the record highs for Sunday and whether some could be broken, here are the current records for some selected cities across the region:

  • Blue Hill – 96 (1987)
  • Boston – 98 (1933)
  • Brockton – 97 (1987)
  • Concord, NH – 100 (1870)
  • Hyannis – 93 (1952)
  • Keene, NH – 95 (1910)
  • Lowell – 98 (1963 and 1987)
  • Manchester, NH – 95 (2001)
  • Nashua, NH – 100 (1952)
  • Newburyport – 96 (2002)
  • Portsmouth, NH – 95 (1987)
  • Providence, RI – 94 (1987)
  • Reading – 99 (2016)
  • Woonsocket, RI – 95 (2016)
  • Worcester – 94 (1910)

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending then skies clear out. Low 67-74.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Small Craft Advisory for the South Coast. West winds 5-10 knots, becoming southwest 10-15 knots in the afternoon, seas 3-5 feet, a little higher off the South Coast, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, improving in the afternoon.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest 5-10 knots in the afternoon, seas 2-4 feet, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, improving in the afternoon.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 68-75.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid. High 93-100. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusting to 25 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 70-77.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun with additional showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. High 84-91. Offshore: Small Craft Advisory likely. Southwest winds 10-20 knots, gusting to 25 knots, season 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Weekly Outlook: July 18-24, 2022

Hot weather is expected for much of the upcoming week (in July? That never happens!), but luckily, humidity levels won’t be that bad most of the time.

An approaching frontal system will bring in some showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. While we need any rain we get to help put a dent in the developing drought, it looks like the heaviest rain will stay north and west of the region. Still, some of the storms that do develop may contain some heavy downpours. Drier air settles in behind the front for Tuesday, but the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold, and in fact, with sunshine, temperatures will actually be warmer than today, making a run at 90 in many locations. Wednesday also looks hot, but with moderate humidity levels.

Most of the models keep the heavy rain out of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island today. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday looks oppressive at this point with heat and humidity increasing as another frontal system approaches the region. That front may produce a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day, but for now, it doesn’t look like a widespread severe weather event is likely. Drier air settles in for Friday with hot weather continuing. Next weekend looks very warm to hot with moderate humidity levels and a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday.

The combination of heat and humidity will make it feel likely it’s close to 100 degrees Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 78-85.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending, some clearing late at night. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and not as humid. High 85-92.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 89-96.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds with some late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, humid. High 89-96, cooler along the South Coast.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 86-93.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 87-94.

Sunday: Partly sunny with a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 85-92.

Weekend Outlook: July 15-18, 2022

Despite a little rain early this morning, and some thunderstorms this afternoon, the drought continues to worsen around here, and we won’t get much relief over the next few days.

Parts of Northeastern Massachusetts and adjacent New Hampshire are now in a severe drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center

We’ll have some showers and thunderstorms around this evening before a cold front pushes offshore. This allows drier air to settle in with high pressure for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, but it won’t be humid. The humidity returns on Sunday as the high moves offshore and another frontal system approaches from the west. That front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms late Sunday, but they likely hold off until Sunday night. Monday looks unsettled at this point as the front takes it’s time moving through, with more showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the models are showing the potential for heavy rain at times on Monday, but given the way the models have performed in terms of rainfall, and the fact that we’re in a drought, we’re a bit skeptical on the idea of heavy rain for Monday. We’ll revisit that in our Weekly Outlook late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Some models show the potential for heavy rain on Monday. We’re a bit skeptical. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end this evening, then skies clear out. Low 58-65.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 79-86, coolest along the coast thanks to an afternoon seabreeze. Offshore: Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon, seas 2-4 feet, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87. coolest along the coast. Offshore: South winds 5-10 knots, seas 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in some morning fog.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 63-70.

Sunday: Partly sunny, humid, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms around. Low 64-71.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusts to 25 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers.

Weekly Outlook: July 11-17, 2022

Much of the upcoming week will feature some weather that is rather typical for July.

High pressure moves offshore today, with southwest winds increasing this afternoon, bringing warmer, and more humid air into the region. You probably won’t notice the humidity until tonight, but you will certainly notice it on Tuesday, when hot and humid weather moves in ahead of a cold front. That front may produce showers and thunderstorms late in the day and at night. Right now, it looks like most of the severe weather should stay well to the west, but a few storms could produce some gusty winds and downpours Tuesday night. The front pushes offshore Wednesday morning, but it will remain quite warm, with humidity levels dropping during the day.

Tuesday looks to be a hot day, especially across the interior. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday with seasonably warm and dry conditions. We’ll start to warm up and become more humid again on Saturday, then the next frontal system approaches on Sunday, with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms.

Very little rainfall is expected this week, with only 2 chances at some showers between now and Sunday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy during the afternoon. High 82-89, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy, humid, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 86-93, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible, especially during the evening. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 85-92.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 81-88.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 78-85.

Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly sunny, humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89.