After a cool and damp day today, big changes are on the way.
A weak area of low pressure pulls away overnight, and skies start to clear out. A warm front moves across the region on Friday, allowing warmer air to start to move in. A shower or thunderstorm is possible during the evening, then very warm to hot and increasingly humid air settles in for the weekend as high pressure builds in. Away from the coastline, temperatures should get well into the 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks like the hottest day, with some upper 90s possible across the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire. A cold front will approach late Sunday, with some showers and thunderstorms likely at night. Monday will be more seasonable, but there may still be plenty of clouds, with some showers, mainly in the morning.
Thursday night: Gradual clearing, with some patchy fog, especially near the coast. Low 45-52.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 74-81, cooler along the coast.
Friday night: An evening shower or thunderstorm, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog near the coast. Low 53-60.
Saturday: Sunny, hot, and becoming humid. High 90-97, cooler along the coast.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, clouds start to move in during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 91-98, cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60-67.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, some showers possible in the morning. High 71-78.
We’re starting the week with a bang, as a strong cold front may produce some severe weather today.
Once the fog near the South Coast burns off this morning, we’ll have partly sunny skies today and it will be warm and somewhat humid. However, a strong cold front will move across the region later today, bringing an end to the humidity and mild temperatures. Ahead of that front, showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into part of the evening. The bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, but some of the storms that make it this far east could still produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
Behind the front, an upper-level low pressure system will cross the Northeast on Tuesday, generating some clouds and possibly a stray shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. By Friday, a warm front will move across the region, allowing warmer and more humid air to move back into the region, Saturday looks like it will be the warmest day, with temperatures possibly topping 90 in much of the region. The latter half of the weekend is a bit trickier. A cold front will move through, with some showers and thunderstorms likely, but the timing of the front is still in question, which has significant implications for the temperature forecast on Sunday. If the front moves through Sunday afternoon, as some models are showing, then another hot day is likely, but if it moves through Saturday night, as other models are indicating, then we’ll clear out after some morning showers, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. We’re going to play the middle ground for now, and hope for some clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Monday: Morning fog along the South Coast, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a stray shower, breezy. High 68-75.
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 45-52.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 65-72.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-723.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.
We’ve got a rather simple forecast for most of the upcoming week, and you’re probably going to like it.
Low pressure continues to drift southward off the Mid-Atlantic coastline today while high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. The result will be sunshine, but we’ll still have some gusty east to northeast winds keeping us on the cool side, especially near the coast. By Tuesday, the low drifts farther to the south, though some moisture rotating around it may produce a shower or two across parts of eastern Massachusetts. Otherwise, the high will continue to build in with sunshine, but it will still remain breezy and one the cool side. Temperatures moderate a bit more on Wednesday as winds diminish, but it will still be on the cool side at the coast. The latter half of the week and start of the week is when the big changes occur.
High pressure slides offshore for Thursday, and remains there into Saturday. The result will be sunshine and much warmer temperatures. How warm? How does highs in the 70s and 80s sound? A seabreeze will keep coastal areas cooler, but away from the shoreline? Break out the shorts and open the sunroof. Some models even show the potential for temperatures to get close to 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching with some showers likely along with cooler temperatures. How cool is still a bit up in the air, but we’ll worry about that more in our weekend outlook on Thursday.
Monday: Morning clouds give way to afternoon sunshine, windy. High 57-64, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 37-44.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 60-67 inland, 53-60 along the coast.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. Low 38-45.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower can’t be ruled out. High 65-72 inland, 58-65 along the coast.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, warmer. High 76-83, cooler along the coast.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.
Winter or Spring? It depends on your definition, as March could be either. In terms of the forecast for the next few days, we’ll have both.
For most people, spring (a.k.a. astronomical spring), begins with the vernal equinox, which takes place this year on Sunday March 20 at 11:33AM. For others, meteorological or climatological spring began on March 1. No matter which definition you use, it will feel like winter into Friday. High pressure builds in tonight, with clearing and very cold conditions. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers in some of the cold spots Friday morning. Friday will also be rather chilly despite ample sunshine. The high slides off to the east on Saturday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. It will send a warm front toward our area. The front will be accompanied by plenty of clouds, and although temperatures will turn milder with the high sliding offshore, the real mild air won’t be here yet.
Saturday night, that warm front moves through with a few showers possible, but temperatures will rise overnight. Could be there a little freezing rain or sleet over the interior right at the start? Sure it’s possible, but right now, it looks like temperatures might be a tad too warm by the time any precipitation arrives. This sets up a Sunday that will definitely feel like spring, as gusty southwest winds send temperatures to near or even over 60 degrees across the area, except for the South Coast, where the wind off the still-chilly water will act as a seabreeze. What’s the catch? We’ll still have plenty of clouds along with some showers as low pressure passes north and west of the region.
As the system moves by, it will try to drag a cold front across the area, but it doesn’t look like it will get all the way through. This has implications for Monday. Areas south of the front will stay quite mild Sunday night, while it will turn cooler north of the front. By Monday, another system quickly approaches from the southwest. This one looks a little more potent, but it will ride along that stalled out frontal boundary. Rain will redevelop in the afternoon, and it could be heavy in spots. North of the front, as colder air moves in, we could see a change to snow, especially Monday night into early Tuesday. We’ll look at this in much greater detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
Thursday night: Clear and cold. Low 7-14.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 28-35.
Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 13-20.
Saturday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 36-43.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, possibly a little wintry mix well inland. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.
Sunday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64, a little cooler along the South Coast.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-47.
Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers developing, possibly mixed with snow or sleet well inland by late in the day and at night. High 47-54, possibly cooler across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.
While today is turning out to be a fantastic day across the region, significant changes are coming, and it won’t take long for them to happen.
A cold front is crossing the region this afternoon, which will bring an end to our record warmth. A few spots even managed to reach 70 today, but you can kiss the mild weather goodbye, as it won’t be back for a while. Temperatures quickly drop this evening and tonight as high pressure builds in, but clouds will start to stream back in on Thursday as low pressure heads toward the Ohio Valley. The system will then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and pass south of New England on Friday. As you’d expect with a system passing south of us in late February, this will produce snow for most of the area. The exact track of the system will determine how much snow we get (more on that in a bit).
We’ll see snow develop before daybreak on Friday, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning and afternoon. At the same time, warmer air will be trying to move in aloft, which would allow the snow to change to sleet and/or freezing rain from south to north during the late morning and early afternoon. At this point, the only places that are likely to get above freezing and change to plain rain will be along the South Coast and across the Cape and the Islands. The question now is, how far north does that change to sleet occur, since it will have a significant impact on the accumulation totals? Most of the models only bring the change as far north as the Mass Pike. However, there is at least one model that brings the changeover all the way northward into southern New Hampshire. This concerns us a little, and we’re going to hedge our bets against this in the snowfall forecast, as you’ll see below.
No matter how far north the changeover gets, as the system starts to pull away later on Friday, everything should change back to snow before winding down and ending in the evening. While this will likely impact the evening commute, the impact will be considerably less than what the morning commute experiences.
As for amounts, this is where things get tricky, since any mixing will cut down amounts significantly. There has been a trend in the models over the past 12 hours or so to shift the axis of heaviest snow into northern and central Massachusetts, with a bit less as you head into southern New Hampshire. Having said that, here’s our thinking as of now:
Cape Cod: 2-4″ South Coast: 3-6″ Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″ Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 6-12″ Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 5-10″
The ranges are a bit wider than we normally like, but this reflects the uncertainty. The less sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be near the higher end of the range. Conversely, the more sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be toward the lower end of the range. We’ll update this forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow afternoon.
We’ve got quite the week coming up with everything from some snow and bitterly cold temperatures to heavy rain and possibly more record highs by the end of the week.
Snow showers will come to an end this morning, then skies will start to clear out this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in. Despite the developing sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 20s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-February. As skies become clear tonight and winds diminish, combined with the fresh snowcover, we’ll have some radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers, with some sub-zero readings possible. Tuesday remains chilly, but not quite as cold as today as the high pressure area continues to build in. By Wednesday, that high shifts offshore, and a significant temperature moderation develops. The milder air will be accompanied by clouds though as a storm system begins to move toward the region.
By Thursday, that system draws nearer, with gusty southwest winds sending temperatures well into the 50s and possibly 60s, with more record highs possible. While temperatures will be mild during the day, it looks like the warmest temperatures will be at night. We could be near or above 60 degrees at midnight Thursday night across the region. We’ll also have some heavy rain as the system gets closer, which combined with the mild weather, will help melt much of the snow that remains on the ground. A widespread soaking rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals of more than an inch possible. We wouldn’t even be surprised if there’s a rumble of thunder. This storm will likely produce some severe weather across the South, and while that’s not likely here, a few thunderstorms are possible. Friday likely starts off warm and wet with temperatures still in the 50s at daybreak, but as a strong cold front comes through during the morning, the rain will end, and temperatures will drop during the day. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with dry and seasonably cool conditions for Saturday, but we may start to turn milder again on Sunday.
Monday: Snow showers ending in the morning, skies start to clear out by late in the day, breezy. High 18-25.
Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low -2 to +5.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 23-30.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 6-13.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to stream in during the afternoon, becoming breezy and milder. High 38-45.
Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially in the morning, showers developing in the afternoon, becoming windy. Wind-swept rain likely at night, possibly some thunder as well. High 56-63. The warmest temperatures are likely at night.
Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, clearing during the afternoon. High 47-54 at daybreak, temperatures drop during the day.
Hope you enjoyed the record warmth today, because Mother Nature is going to quickly remind you that it is still February.
Unseasonably mild temperatures continued across the region on Saturday, with a few records set, but a cold front moved through around midday, and a stronger one will move through this evening, bringing an abrupt end to the mild weather. Temperatures will quickly drop tonight as the front pushes offshore, and on Sunday, most places will likely be in the 30s or even upper 20s during the daytime. That’s not the big story though.
A wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday, passing south and east of the region. It will be close enough to produce some light snow and snow showers across parts of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, possibly even into southern New Hampshire, during Sunday morning and early afternoon. Most of the snow will remain light, with accumulations of an inch or two possible, mainly from Boston southward. The story doesn’t end there. As the low passes by, winds will shift into the northeast, which will result in some ocean-effect snow across parts of Cape Cod and coastal Plymouth County, and possibly Cape Ann as well. The areas that receive snow will be highly dependent on the wind direction. Northeast winds will spread the snow inland across southeastern Massachusetts, but as winds shift into the north Sunday night, the bands of ocean-effect snow will retreat closer to the coast of Plymouth County and across Cape Cod. By Monday morning, winds will shift into the northwest, bringing an end to the snow for most of us.
How much snow may fall? North and West of I-495, just a dusting to perhaps a half an inch. From 495 to I-95, some spots could see an inch, possibly 2 inches. It’s areas south of Boston (and Cape Ann), that may need shovels (and possibly plows). Across interior portions of southeastern Massachusetts as well as Cape Ann, we could see 2-4 inches of snow. The “jackpot” is likely to be across coastal Plymouth County as well as parts of Cape Cod, where as much as 4-7 inches could accumulate.
High pressure builds in behind this system on Monday with much colder weather. Despite sunshine developing in the afternoon, temperatures will only rise into the lower to middle 20s for highs, with single numbers and lower teens likely Monday night as skies clear out and winds die down. Tuesday also looks chilly, though likely a few degrees milder, but a big warmup is likely for the middle to latter half of the week. In fact, we could make a run at 60 again on Thursday, before another system brings in some rain.
There are some indications that this arctic blast for Monday and Tuesday could be the last really cold blast of the winter. Oh, it’ll still be cold, it’s only mid-February after all, but days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers or below zero may be done for the year, though this is far from a guarantee. We’ve been known to have arctic blasts into March and even early April, though with the increasing sun angle, they tend to lose their staying power. This does not mean that winter is over, not by a longshot. We still can get snow around here well into April and even May if things set up properly. The longer range models are indicating that a milder pattern should start to take hold soon, and last into March. However, these same models also still show the threat for snow well into March, so don’t go putting away the winter gear just yet.
We’ve got a lot going on over the next few days across the region, and you probably won’t like most of it.
A storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, and rapidly strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing well south and east of the region on Friday. However, it will be close enough to spread some rain and strong winds into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. At the same time, a cold front will drop down from the northwest, ushering arctic air back into the region. This may allow the rain to change to snow before it ends. Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon and evening as gusty northwest to north winds continue to send the arctic air in. Any surfaces that are wet from the rain across southeastern Massachusetts will quickly freeze up Friday afternoon and evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out that evening.
We’ll drop into the single numbers by Saturday morning, with some subzero lows north and west of Boston. With strong winds, wind chills will be well below zero Friday night and Saturday morning, so dress appropriately if you’ll be outside. Saturday looks to be a day similar to this past Tuesday with sunshine and some afternoon clouds, possibly a few snow showers across Cape Cod, and temperatures struggling to reach the lower to middle teens. Winds die down Saturday night, resulting in another chilly night, with subzero lows possible once again. Sunday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon as temperatures start to moderate. This brings us to the complicated part of the forecast.
Another strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast and make its way up the East Coast on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track that the storm will take, but for now it looks like it may stay near the coast or just inland, passing directly over, or just west, of our area on Monday, though this is subject to change. This track would result in snow changing to sleet and/or freezing rain and then plain rain across much of the area. However, this is far from a guarantee. There are still some models that bring the storm a little farther south and east, which would result in more snow and less rain, but as we’ve mentioned numerous times, the models have been less than trustworthy beyond 2 or 3 days recently. When (or if) a change to mix and/or rain occurs will also have a significant impact on how much snow accumulates. Given the amount of uncertainty, it’s still WAY too early to try and pin down any potential accumulations, but it’s safe to say that the farther north and west of Boston you are, the better the chance you’ll need to fire up the snowblower or find your shovels. We’ll try to post an update this weekend, once we have some better clarity on the storm.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain may develop across Cape Cod towards daybreak. Low 26-33.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, rain likely across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, possibly changing to snow before ending, becoming windy. High 35-42, but temperatures will start to quickly drop in the afternoon.
Friday night: Clearing, windy, and much colder, except partly cloudy with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. Low -3 to +4, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and very cold, except partly sunny with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. High 10-17.
Saturday night: Clear skies with diminishing winds. Low -2 to +5, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.
Sunday: Sunshine to start the day, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 23-30.
Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow developing, possibly rain across Cape Cod. Low 14-21.
Monday: Snow, possibly changing to sleet/freezing rain/rain, especially the farther south and east you go. High 39-46.
Dig out the thermals and heavy winter gear, some really cold air is on the way.
Temperatures will turn colder today despite some sunshine, but this is just the opening act for what is on the way. An arctic cold front will cross the region this evening. It may produce some snow showers or squalls, so if you’ll be out this evening, be prepared for a short burst of snow that could significantly reduce visibility and drop a quick coating on the roads. Once the front moves offshore, bitterly cold air will flood into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop below zero in parts of the region Tuesday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine Tuesday afternoon, highs may struggle to reach the lower teens across most of the area, with wind chills that are below zero. Across Cape Cod, there may not be as much sunshine, as northwest winds blowing over the relatively mild water of Cape Cod Bay could produce some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. We’ll have another bitterly cold night Tuesday night, with subzero lows possible once again, but as high pressure slides off to the east on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate. It’ll still be chilly, but highs should get into the 30s across the area.
Temperatures will turn colder again for the end of the week, but there are bigger concerns. We’ve cautioned you recently that the models have performed rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days, and that is still the case, so this part of the forecast is highly uncertain. However, many models are showing the potential for a powerful ocean storm to develop late Thursday into Friday, and a second storm to do the same over the weekend. The fact that they all show this gives us a little more confidence that they both may actually develop. The problem is, that’s about all they agree on. They don’t agree on the timing of the storms, the track they might take, how strong they’ll get, and what, if any, impacts they may have up here. These are things that we’ll be keeping a close eye on as the week goes by, but for now, what you read below is our “best guess” (for lack of a better term), but it is very low confidence.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 23-30.
Monday night: Partly cloudy and breezy, some snow showers or squalls are possible during the evening. Low -2 to 5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20 by daybreak.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and very cold, except partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 8-15, with wind chills below zero.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low -2 to +5.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and milder. High 31-38.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35-42.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for some light snow or snow showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 28-35.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High 21-28.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a chance of snow, especially in eastern Massachusetts. High 28-35.
Our first snowstorm of the season is on the way for Friday, but it’s just part of a colder pattern we’re heading into for the weekend and beyond.
Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, and it will head east-northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, passing south and east of New England on Friday as it intensifies. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning, which will result in significant problems for the morning commute. The snow should come to an end by mid-afternoon across the region. Based on the trends in the models since last night, we are adjusting our snowfall forecast upwards a bit, but not that much. Here’s our latest projections:
The storm pulls away Friday evening, and skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but rather chilly Saturday, with many places likely staying in the 20s all day. With clear skies and fresh snowcover, temperatures will quickly plunge Saturday evening into the teens and possibly single numbers in some spots. Clouds stream back in late Saturday night as another system moves toward the region. While this system looks a bit milder, with southerly winds warming things up a bit on Sunday, the models have been trending less mild with every run. With that in mind, we’ll probably see some snow showers or a little freezing rain develop north and west of Boston Sunday afternoon, changing to rain by evening. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, just plain rain is expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow before winding down around daybreak Monday. After that, some of the coldest air thus far this winter will pour into the region. Temperatures may not rise much, if at all, Monday afternoon. The coldest weather looks to arrive on Tuesday, when highs may stay in the teens, with subzero lows possible Tuesday night. We’ll have more info on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.