Weekend Outlook: November 11-14, 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole is crossing Florida and the Dakotas are in the midst of a blizzard. Both of these systems will have an impact on our weather over the next few days.

High pressure continues to push offshore tonight resulting in mild weather continuing into Saturday. The system producing the blizzard in the Dakotas will head into southern Canada, but a strong cold front trails that storm and it will march eastward over the next couple of days. At the same time, what’s left of Nicole will head up the Appalachians, eventually becoming absorbed by the front. We’ll see clouds start to stream in ahead of these systems tonight, but any rainfall likely holds off until late Friday afternoon, resulting in a cloudy but mild Veteran’s Day, with temperatures approaching 70 in many locations. A period of steady and potentially heavy rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning, but the heaviest of the rain should stay to our north and west. Given that this air is of tropical origins, some rumbles of thunder are possible. The rain will also be accompanied by some gusty winds. The front moves through around midday and the rain ends, with skies starting to clear out in the afternoon. It will be another warm day, with temperatures near or above 70 once again. Clouds hang around for Saturday night and a good portion of Sunday as an upper-level trough crosses the region. Could there be a stray shower or two early Sunday? It’s possible, but they’ll be few and far between. We’ll clear out later Sunday and into Monday as high pressure builds in with much cooler air. In fact, temperatures look to be below normal for a good chunk of next week. There’s even, dare we say it, the potential for a few flakes around here with a system toward mid-week. We’ll touch on that more in our Weekly Outlook early Monday.

Temperatures Sunday morning will be 20-25 degrees cooler than they were at the same time Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 47-54.

Friday: Becoming cloudy, showers developing late in the day. High 64-71.

Friday night: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, some thunder is also possible. Low 57-64 during the evening, temperatures may rise a few degrees overnight.

Saturday: Rain tapers off and ends during the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, breezy. High 66-73.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a late-night shower. Low 41-48.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a shower possible in the morning, skies start to clear out during the afternoon, much cooler. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Clear and chilly. Low 29-36.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, but quite cool. High 41-48.

Weekly Outlook: November 7-13, 2022

Fall is a time for change, and we’ll have some changes coming this week.

Our unseasonably warm air remains in place for one more day today. A few showers are possible this morning as a cold front crosses the region, then we’ll have a sunny a warm afternoon. The colder air lags a bit behind the front, but it will start to move in late in the day. High pressure then builds inf for Tuesday and Wednesday with sunshine and much cooler temperatures, though they’ll actually be fairly close to normal for early November. As the high slides off to the east, well warm back up for Thursday and Friday. While it won’t be as warm as it was over the weekend, it’ll still be rather mild for the first half of November. After that, the changes really start.

More record highs are possible across the Northeast today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

An area of low pressure is slowly organizing east of the Bahamas. It will likely become a tropical depression soon (possibly even before you read this). It will likely become a tropical storm or the next day or so, and could even become a hurricane. While it may seem unusual for a hurricane this late in the year, Hurricane Season doesn’t end until November 30 for a reason. This system will likely head westward, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas before heading for the east coast of central Florida. Eventually, the storm will turn northward as a deepening trough of low pressure moves toward the East Coast. When this turn occurs is still a bit of a question, and while it will have a significant impact for Florida and the Southeast, for us up here, it doesn’t make too much of a difference (more on that in a bit). A turn before reaching Florida would obviously spare the state from the worst of the impact, delaying the turn until it crosses the state and moves into the Gulf increases the threat to western Florida and possibly the Panhandle. The most likely scenario though is a northward turn shortly after landfall, bringing it up Florida and into the Southeast. This brings heavy rain and strong winds to much of the state, while storm surge also an issue for the east coast of Florida.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once it makes that turn, it will turn more toward the northeast, likely moving back offshore off the coast of Georgia, and passing close to or just off the Carolina coastline. After that it will head up the coast, passing south and east of New England on Saturday. It won’t be tropical any more at this point, but it will still be a potent nor’easter. As a result, we’ll have some rain, likely heavy, from Friday night into late Saturday. Gusty winds are also likely near the coast. Some of the models are trying to bring a tremendous amount of rain into eastern New England, and given the system’s tropical roots, this is certainly a possibility. However, we’ve seen time and time again the models forecast some very heavy rain several days in advance, and slowly back off those totals as the system gets closer.

Most of the models show some heavy rain for the end of the week, but differ on how heavy. Images provided by Pivoral Weather.

As the system moves away, a strong cold front will move through. Behind it, we’ll clear out on Sunday, but much cooler air will settle into the region with high pressure building in. In fact, a much cooler pattern is shaping up for next week, with temperatures likely below normal for a good chunk of the week.

Most of next week looks to feature below normal temperatures across the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild with a shower possibly early, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 71-78.

Monday night: Clear skies (Perfect for viewing the total lunar eclipse late at night). Low 37-44.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, much cooler. High 48-55.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Wednesday: More sunshine. High 47-54.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, milder. High 59-66.

Friday: Increasing and thickening clouds, showers possible late in the day, steady rain develops at night. High 63-70.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, ending at night. High 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and much cooler. High 46-53.

Weekly Outlook: August 8-14, 2022

The heat and humidity continue to start the week, but relief is on the way.

High pressure remains in place off the East Coast, which means heat and humidity continue into Tuesday. Temperatures likely top 90 for many areas both days, with very humid conditions likely. There is the possibility of a little relief for the coast of Maine, New Hampshire Seacoast, and possibly northeastern Massachusetts. Some models show the potential for a backdoor cold front to drop down into these areas later today and into tonight, bringing some cooler air in. The front likely doesn’t make it past Cape Ann, and should start to retreat northward before daybreak on Tuesday, but a few hours of relief are possible.

A backdoor cold front may drop temperatures into the 60s along the coast of Maine, New Hampshire and extreme northeastern Massachusetts this evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll see some pop-up showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, but they’ll probably be a bit more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. That front will stall out near or just south of the region for Wednesday into Thursday, allowing cooler air to finally move in, but it will likely remain on the humid side. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing in some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. This big question is, where does the front stall out? If it’s near the South Coast, as most of the models show, then we could see some beneficial rainfall finally fall, especially south of the Mass Pike. If it stalls out offshore, then the beneficial rain may be confined to the South Coast. Recent history suggests that the latter scenario is more likely, despite the majority of the models forecasting the former, so even though our forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms, we’re not expecting either day to be a washout.

Some beneficial rain is possible this week, but how much and where the heaviest rain falls is still up for debate. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

The end of the week and the weekend is even trickier. Some models are showing the potential for low pressure to develop off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast and head northward or northeastward, potentially having some impact here. Given the time of year, and the fact that the water off the East Coast is fairly warm, we wouldn’t be shocked if the National Hurricane Center tries to slap a name on this system if it develops, whether it truly is tropical or not. Whether the system is tropical or not (if it even develops) it appears as though we could be in a period of cool and wet weather, or the models could completely change their tune tomorrow and bring the heat and humidity back. They’ve been pretty unreliable beyond 3 days or so, so at this point, we’re going to lean toward a dry forecast, because as the old saying goes “when it drought, leave it out”. That’s why we do a Weekend Outlook on Thursday afternoons, because we’ll be 3 days closer to the weekend and should have a better idea of what is going on.

Several members of the GFS Ensemble show the potential for low pressure off the East Coast next Saturday, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Speaking of the tropics, it appears as though the Atlantic is starting to awaken, right on time. It’s been 5 weeks since we had “Tropical Storm Colin” (which was really just a big thunderstorm near the Carolina coast, but we digress), and June/July are usually fairly quiet. Activity usually starts to ramp up in August, with the peak of the season coming around September 10. Tropical waves have been rolling off the coast of Africa every few days for the past few weeks, but none of them have amounted to much, as Saharan dust has been inhibiting the thunderstorm development. That appears to be changing. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday, and even though it is disorganized right now, conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. As it moves across the Atlantic, it could become a tropical depression toward the middle of this week. If it does develop, chances are that it probably wouldn’t be a strong storm, and it may never be a threat to land. No matter what, we’ll be paying attention and following closely.

We’re keeping our eyes on a system in the eastern Atlantic. Image provided by HurricaneIntel.com

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 90-97.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 72-79, possibly cooler along the coast from Cape Ann northward.

Tuesday: Some morning sun, then increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 91-98.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off in the evening. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds and much cooler with more showers possible during the afternoon and at night. High 76-83.

Thursday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers possible, especially in the morning. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 74-81.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 75-82.

Weekly Outlook: July 25-31, 2022

The final week of July will not be as hot as last week was, but there will still be episodes of humidity to deal with.

After Sunday’s record-breaking heat, which topped 100 in places, today won’t be as hot with a cold front approaching the region. We’ll have plenty of cloud cover with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Some of the storms could be quite potent, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours. There is even a risk for a tornado. While the threat of severe weather exists from Maine to Virginia, around here, we think it’ll be mostly north and west of I-95 where the strongest storms occur, as usual. We could still see some strong storms in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, so don’t let your guard down if you’ll be in that neck of the woods during the afternoon.

Severe weather looks like a decent bet across the Northeast today. Image provided Pivotal Weather.

While temperatures will be “cooler” today they’ll still be in the 80s, possibly near 90 in spots if we can get enough sunshine in the morning. Of course, if we get some sunshine, that will also help to fuel some stronger thunderstorms. It’ll also be a much more humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s, so it’ll feel nearly as hot as Sunday was. As a result, the National Weather Service extended the Heat Advisory for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island until 5pm today.

It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees early this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The cold front moves offshore tonight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. Temperatures should still reach the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 50s and lower 60s. The next system approaches on Thursday, so we’ll turn warmer and more humid once again, with some showers and thunderstorms likely late Thursday into Friday. At this time, it doesn’t look like the threat for severe weather is as significant as today, but it’s still a few days away, so we’ll keep monitoring things. High pressure builds back in next weekend with seasonably warm and drier weather once again.

Tuesday will be much more comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could be strong to severe. High 85-92.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies gradually clear out. Low 59-66.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 83-90.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 82-89.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89.

Weekend Outlook: July 22-25, 2022

Hot Hot Hot. Buster Poindexter’s song is also for the forecast for the next few days.

Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening as a frontal system pushes offshore, then skies clear out overnight. Drier air settles in for Friday and Saturday, with dewpoints in the 50s Friday and 60s Saturday, but it will remain hot, with temperatures well into the 90s in many locations. Sunday is shaping up to be a rather hot and humid day as another frontal system approaches the region. Temperatures should be well into the 90s again with high to oppressive humidity. Some models are showing the potential for triple-digit temperatures north and west of Boston, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. We’re not sure it gets quite that hot, but upper 90s are a distinct possibility. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely late Sunday night, and again on Monday as another frontal system crosses the region. Humidity levels will start dropping again later on Monday, but it will remain warm, with highs well into the 80s, and some places could top 90 once again.

Sunday is looking like a very hot day across much of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

If you’re curious about the record highs for Sunday and whether some could be broken, here are the current records for some selected cities across the region:

  • Blue Hill – 96 (1987)
  • Boston – 98 (1933)
  • Brockton – 97 (1987)
  • Concord, NH – 100 (1870)
  • Hyannis – 93 (1952)
  • Keene, NH – 95 (1910)
  • Lowell – 98 (1963 and 1987)
  • Manchester, NH – 95 (2001)
  • Nashua, NH – 100 (1952)
  • Newburyport – 96 (2002)
  • Portsmouth, NH – 95 (1987)
  • Providence, RI – 94 (1987)
  • Reading – 99 (2016)
  • Woonsocket, RI – 95 (2016)
  • Worcester – 94 (1910)

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending then skies clear out. Low 67-74.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Small Craft Advisory for the South Coast. West winds 5-10 knots, becoming southwest 10-15 knots in the afternoon, seas 3-5 feet, a little higher off the South Coast, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, improving in the afternoon.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 89-96, cooler right at the coast. Offshore: Southwest 5-10 knots in the afternoon, seas 2-4 feet, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, improving in the afternoon.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 68-75.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid. High 93-100. Offshore: Southwest winds 10-15 knots, gusting to 25 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 70-77.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun with additional showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. High 84-91. Offshore: Small Craft Advisory likely. Southwest winds 10-20 knots, gusting to 25 knots, season 3-6 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Weekend Outlook: May 20-23, 2022

After a cool and damp day today, big changes are on the way.

A weak area of low pressure pulls away overnight, and skies start to clear out. A warm front moves across the region on Friday, allowing warmer air to start to move in. A shower or thunderstorm is possible during the evening, then very warm to hot and increasingly humid air settles in for the weekend as high pressure builds in. Away from the coastline, temperatures should get well into the 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks like the hottest day, with some upper 90s possible across the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire. A cold front will approach late Sunday, with some showers and thunderstorms likely at night. Monday will be more seasonable, but there may still be plenty of clouds, with some showers, mainly in the morning.

Sunday looks like the hotter of the two days, with some places getting into the upper 90s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing, with some patchy fog, especially near the coast. Low 45-52.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 74-81, cooler along the coast.

Friday night: An evening shower or thunderstorm, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog near the coast. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Sunny, hot, and becoming humid. High 90-97, cooler along the coast.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Sunday: Sunny and hot, clouds start to move in during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 91-98, cooler along the coast.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60-67.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, some showers possible in the morning. High 71-78.

Weekly Outlook: May 16-22, 2022

We’re starting the week with a bang, as a strong cold front may produce some severe weather today.

Once the fog near the South Coast burns off this morning, we’ll have partly sunny skies today and it will be warm and somewhat humid. However, a strong cold front will move across the region later today, bringing an end to the humidity and mild temperatures. Ahead of that front, showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into part of the evening. The bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, but some of the storms that make it this far east could still produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

The farther west you go, the more likely severe weather becomes today. image provided by NOAA.

Behind the front, an upper-level low pressure system will cross the Northeast on Tuesday, generating some clouds and possibly a stray shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. By Friday, a warm front will move across the region, allowing warmer and more humid air to move back into the region, Saturday looks like it will be the warmest day, with temperatures possibly topping 90 in much of the region. The latter half of the weekend is a bit trickier. A cold front will move through, with some showers and thunderstorms likely, but the timing of the front is still in question, which has significant implications for the temperature forecast on Sunday. If the front moves through Sunday afternoon, as some models are showing, then another hot day is likely, but if it moves through Saturday night, as other models are indicating, then we’ll clear out after some morning showers, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. We’re going to play the middle ground for now, and hope for some clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Sunday could be another hot day, but how hot? Images provided b Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning fog along the South Coast, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a stray shower, breezy. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 65-72.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-723.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Weekly Outlook: May 9-15, 2022

We’ve got a rather simple forecast for most of the upcoming week, and you’re probably going to like it.

Low pressure continues to drift southward off the Mid-Atlantic coastline today while high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. The result will be sunshine, but we’ll still have some gusty east to northeast winds keeping us on the cool side, especially near the coast. By Tuesday, the low drifts farther to the south, though some moisture rotating around it may produce a shower or two across parts of eastern Massachusetts. Otherwise, the high will continue to build in with sunshine, but it will still remain breezy and one the cool side. Temperatures moderate a bit more on Wednesday as winds diminish, but it will still be on the cool side at the coast. The latter half of the week and start of the week is when the big changes occur.

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal across the region again today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure slides offshore for Thursday, and remains there into Saturday. The result will be sunshine and much warmer temperatures. How warm? How does highs in the 70s and 80s sound? A seabreeze will keep coastal areas cooler, but away from the shoreline? Break out the shorts and open the sunroof. Some models even show the potential for temperatures to get close to 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching with some showers likely along with cooler temperatures. How cool is still a bit up in the air, but we’ll worry about that more in our weekend outlook on Thursday.

Saturday looks like a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning clouds give way to afternoon sunshine, windy. High 57-64, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 60-67 inland, 53-60 along the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, an isolated shower can’t be ruled out. High 65-72 inland, 58-65 along the coast.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, warmer. High 76-83, cooler along the coast.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 79-86, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 69-76, cooler along the coast.

Weekend Outlook: March 4-7, 2022

Winter or Spring? It depends on your definition, as March could be either. In terms of the forecast for the next few days, we’ll have both.

For most people, spring (a.k.a. astronomical spring), begins with the vernal equinox, which takes place this year on Sunday March 20 at 11:33AM. For others, meteorological or climatological spring began on March 1. No matter which definition you use, it will feel like winter into Friday. High pressure builds in tonight, with clearing and very cold conditions. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers in some of the cold spots Friday morning. Friday will also be rather chilly despite ample sunshine. The high slides off to the east on Saturday as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. It will send a warm front toward our area. The front will be accompanied by plenty of clouds, and although temperatures will turn milder with the high sliding offshore, the real mild air won’t be here yet.

Saturday night, that warm front moves through with a few showers possible, but temperatures will rise overnight. Could be there a little freezing rain or sleet over the interior right at the start? Sure it’s possible, but right now, it looks like temperatures might be a tad too warm by the time any precipitation arrives. This sets up a Sunday that will definitely feel like spring, as gusty southwest winds send temperatures to near or even over 60 degrees across the area, except for the South Coast, where the wind off the still-chilly water will act as a seabreeze. What’s the catch? We’ll still have plenty of clouds along with some showers as low pressure passes north and west of the region.

Saturday looks like a mild day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the system moves by, it will try to drag a cold front across the area, but it doesn’t look like it will get all the way through. This has implications for Monday. Areas south of the front will stay quite mild Sunday night, while it will turn cooler north of the front. By Monday, another system quickly approaches from the southwest. This one looks a little more potent, but it will ride along that stalled out frontal boundary. Rain will redevelop in the afternoon, and it could be heavy in spots. North of the front, as colder air moves in, we could see a change to snow, especially Monday night into early Tuesday. We’ll look at this in much greater detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Things could start to get tricky late in the day Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear and cold. Low 7-14.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 28-35.

Friday night: Clear during the evening, some clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 13-20.

Saturday: Increasing and thickening clouds. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, possibly a little wintry mix well inland. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.

Sunday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers developing, possibly mixed with snow or sleet well inland by late in the day and at night. High 47-54, possibly cooler across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.

From Record Highs to a Snowstorm in 36 Hours

While today is turning out to be a fantastic day across the region, significant changes are coming, and it won’t take long for them to happen.

A cold front is crossing the region this afternoon, which will bring an end to our record warmth. A few spots even managed to reach 70 today, but you can kiss the mild weather goodbye, as it won’t be back for a while. Temperatures quickly drop this evening and tonight as high pressure builds in, but clouds will start to stream back in on Thursday as low pressure heads toward the Ohio Valley. The system will then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and pass south of New England on Friday. As you’d expect with a system passing south of us in late February, this will produce snow for most of the area. The exact track of the system will determine how much snow we get (more on that in a bit).

Much of New England and eastern New York are under a Winter Storm Watch. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll see snow develop before daybreak on Friday, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning and afternoon. At the same time, warmer air will be trying to move in aloft, which would allow the snow to change to sleet and/or freezing rain from south to north during the late morning and early afternoon. At this point, the only places that are likely to get above freezing and change to plain rain will be along the South Coast and across the Cape and the Islands. The question now is, how far north does that change to sleet occur, since it will have a significant impact on the accumulation totals? Most of the models only bring the change as far north as the Mass Pike. However, there is at least one model that brings the changeover all the way northward into southern New Hampshire. This concerns us a little, and we’re going to hedge our bets against this in the snowfall forecast, as you’ll see below.

There is some disagreement among the models as to how far north the changeover line progresses. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

No matter how far north the changeover gets, as the system starts to pull away later on Friday, everything should change back to snow before winding down and ending in the evening. While this will likely impact the evening commute, the impact will be considerably less than what the morning commute experiences.

As for amounts, this is where things get tricky, since any mixing will cut down amounts significantly. There has been a trend in the models over the past 12 hours or so to shift the axis of heaviest snow into northern and central Massachusetts, with a bit less as you head into southern New Hampshire. Having said that, here’s our thinking as of now:

Cape Cod: 2-4″
South Coast: 3-6″
Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″
Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 6-12″
Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 5-10″

Our forecast is not that dissimilar to the National Weather Service forecast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The ranges are a bit wider than we normally like, but this reflects the uncertainty. The less sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be near the higher end of the range. Conversely, the more sleet that mixes in, the more likely you are to be toward the lower end of the range. We’ll update this forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow afternoon.