Weekly Outlook: January 17-23, 2022

The week is starting off on a very stormy note, but should quiet down later in the week.

A variety of advisories and warnings are in effect across the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will move across the region today, bringing a variety of hazardous conditions in, mainly during the morning hours. Some heavy rain is likely through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon as an occluded front moves across the region. Some strong winds are also likely this morning, especially near the coast, where gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. In addition, some coastal flooding is likely around high tide, due to the combination of strong onshore winds and already astronomically high tides. Notice what we didn’t mention? Snow. Any snow will be confined to areas well north and west of Boston, and likely will have changed to rain and/or ended by the time most of you read this.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph along the coast this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

During the afternoon it will still be breezy, but winds won’t be nearly as strong as they are in the morning. A cold front will move through by evening as the low passes by to our north, and that front could be accompanied by some rain or snow showers. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with sunshine, but it will be breezy and turning colder once again. The cold air will be short-lived as another weak system approaches for Wednesday. As this system moves through, we could see some rain or snow showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds back in for Thursday and Friday, with a return to much colder weather, though not likely as cold as we had earlier this past weekend. As we head into next weekend, we’ll be keeping our eyes on a potential coastal storm. While some models have shown the potential for it to impact us next weekend, at this point, the more likely scenario is that it stays offshore with little impact, and high pressure continues to build in, keeping us dry and cold. As usual, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we publish our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Friday looks like it will be another very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Windy with snow across the interior changing to rain early, elsewhere rain, heavy at times in the morning, ending by early afternoon. Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds in the afternoon. High 41-48 in the morning, temperatures start to drop in the afternoon.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the evening. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 23-30.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 8-15.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few snow or rain showers late in the day and at night. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, any lingering snow showers end early. High 31-38.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, except mostly cloudy across Cape Cod with a few snow showers possible. High 17-24.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 21-28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 14-17, 2022

We’ve got a lot going on over the next few days across the region, and you probably won’t like most of it.

A storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, and rapidly strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing well south and east of the region on Friday. However, it will be close enough to spread some rain and strong winds into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. At the same time, a cold front will drop down from the northwest, ushering arctic air back into the region. This may allow the rain to change to snow before it ends. Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon and evening as gusty northwest to north winds continue to send the arctic air in. Any surfaces that are wet from the rain across southeastern Massachusetts will quickly freeze up Friday afternoon and evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out that evening.

Northerly winds may gusts to 35-45 mph on Friday, ushering arctic air into the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll drop into the single numbers by Saturday morning, with some subzero lows north and west of Boston. With strong winds, wind chills will be well below zero Friday night and Saturday morning, so dress appropriately if you’ll be outside. Saturday looks to be a day similar to this past Tuesday with sunshine and some afternoon clouds, possibly a few snow showers across Cape Cod, and temperatures struggling to reach the lower to middle teens. Winds die down Saturday night, resulting in another chilly night, with subzero lows possible once again. Sunday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon as temperatures start to moderate. This brings us to the complicated part of the forecast.

With wind chills like this, Saturday morning will be a good time to stay inside. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast and make its way up the East Coast on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track that the storm will take, but for now it looks like it may stay near the coast or just inland, passing directly over, or just west, of our area on Monday, though this is subject to change. This track would result in snow changing to sleet and/or freezing rain and then plain rain across much of the area. However, this is far from a guarantee. There are still some models that bring the storm a little farther south and east, which would result in more snow and less rain, but as we’ve mentioned numerous times, the models have been less than trustworthy beyond 2 or 3 days recently. When (or if) a change to mix and/or rain occurs will also have a significant impact on how much snow accumulates. Given the amount of uncertainty, it’s still WAY too early to try and pin down any potential accumulations, but it’s safe to say that the farther north and west of Boston you are, the better the chance you’ll need to fire up the snowblower or find your shovels. We’ll try to post an update this weekend, once we have some better clarity on the storm.

There is plenty of uncertainty in regards to storm for Sunday/Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain may develop across Cape Cod towards daybreak. Low 26-33.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, rain likely across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, possibly changing to snow before ending, becoming windy. High 35-42, but temperatures will start to quickly drop in the afternoon.

Friday night: Clearing, windy, and much colder, except partly cloudy with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. Low -3 to +4, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and very cold, except partly sunny with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. High 10-17.

Saturday night: Clear skies with diminishing winds. Low -2 to +5, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Sunday: Sunshine to start the day, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 23-30.

Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow developing, possibly rain across Cape Cod. Low 14-21.

Monday: Snow, possibly changing to sleet/freezing rain/rain, especially the farther south and east you go. High 39-46.

Weekly Outlook: January 10-16, 2022

Dig out the thermals and heavy winter gear, some really cold air is on the way.

Temperatures will turn colder today despite some sunshine, but this is just the opening act for what is on the way. An arctic cold front will cross the region this evening. It may produce some snow showers or squalls, so if you’ll be out this evening, be prepared for a short burst of snow that could significantly reduce visibility and drop a quick coating on the roads. Once the front moves offshore, bitterly cold air will flood into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop below zero in parts of the region Tuesday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine Tuesday afternoon, highs may struggle to reach the lower teens across most of the area, with wind chills that are below zero. Across Cape Cod, there may not be as much sunshine, as northwest winds blowing over the relatively mild water of Cape Cod Bay could produce some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. We’ll have another bitterly cold night Tuesday night, with subzero lows possible once again, but as high pressure slides off to the east on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate. It’ll still be chilly, but highs should get into the 30s across the area.

Wind chills could be well below zero Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Temperatures will turn colder again for the end of the week, but there are bigger concerns. We’ve cautioned you recently that the models have performed rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days, and that is still the case, so this part of the forecast is highly uncertain. However, many models are showing the potential for a powerful ocean storm to develop late Thursday into Friday, and a second storm to do the same over the weekend. The fact that they all show this gives us a little more confidence that they both may actually develop. The problem is, that’s about all they agree on. They don’t agree on the timing of the storms, the track they might take, how strong they’ll get, and what, if any, impacts they may have up here. These are things that we’ll be keeping a close eye on as the week goes by, but for now, what you read below is our “best guess” (for lack of a better term), but it is very low confidence.

The models all have different ideas about a potential coastal storm on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 23-30.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and breezy, some snow showers or squalls are possible during the evening. Low -2 to 5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20 by daybreak.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and very cold, except partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 8-15, with wind chills below zero.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low -2 to +5.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and milder. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35-42.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for some light snow or snow showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 28-35.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High 21-28.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a chance of snow, especially in eastern Massachusetts. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 7-10, 2022

Our first snowstorm of the season is on the way for Friday, but it’s just part of a colder pattern we’re heading into for the weekend and beyond.

A variety of advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect across the region. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, and it will head east-northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, passing south and east of New England on Friday as it intensifies. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning, which will result in significant problems for the morning commute. The snow should come to an end by mid-afternoon across the region. Based on the trends in the models since last night, we are adjusting our snowfall forecast upwards a bit, but not that much. Here’s our latest projections:

Southern NH: 3-5″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 3-6″
MetroWest/I-495 Belt: 4-7″
I/95 corridor/SE Mass/RI: 5-8″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-6″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Blend of Models is closest to our thinking right now, but it may be a bit on the high side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm pulls away Friday evening, and skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but rather chilly Saturday, with many places likely staying in the 20s all day. With clear skies and fresh snowcover, temperatures will quickly plunge Saturday evening into the teens and possibly single numbers in some spots. Clouds stream back in late Saturday night as another system moves toward the region. While this system looks a bit milder, with southerly winds warming things up a bit on Sunday, the models have been trending less mild with every run. With that in mind, we’ll probably see some snow showers or a little freezing rain develop north and west of Boston Sunday afternoon, changing to rain by evening. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, just plain rain is expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow before winding down around daybreak Monday. After that, some of the coldest air thus far this winter will pour into the region. Temperatures may not rise much, if at all, Monday afternoon. The coldest weather looks to arrive on Tuesday, when highs may stay in the teens, with subzero lows possible Tuesday night. We’ll have more info on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Tuesday looks like a very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing 2-5am. Low 23-30.

Friday: Breezy with snow, possibly heavy at times in the morning, ending 12-3pm. High 28-35.

Friday night: Clearing, colder. Low 11-18.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, chilly. High 24-31.

Saturday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 10-17, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely in the afternoon, possibly starting as snow or freezing rain north and west of Boston. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Showers changing to snow showers before ending by daybreak. Low 22-29.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. Temperatures hold steady or drop a bit during the day.

Did Someone Say Snow?

We haven’t had much of the flaky white stuff yet this winter, but that’s going to change on Friday.

Very little snow has fallen across much of the region so far this winter. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A low pressure area currently moving across the Pacific Northwest will make its way across the country over the next 24-36 hours, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night, passing south and east of New England Friday morning. The system will be moving fairly quickly, and while it will become a rather potent storm as it heads into Atlantic Canada, it won’t be that strong when it passes New England. This means that we’re looking at a light to perhaps moderate snowstorm across the region on Friday. For the most part, this will be mostly snow across the region, with any rain mixing in likely confined to the Outer Cape and Islands. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect on Friday from 1am until 1pm for all of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts (not including Cape Cod) as well as the Boston area

The ECMWF shows the quick progression of the storm Thursday night and Friday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

First, we’ll talk about the timing, which isn’t optimal. The snow will likely develop across the region between 3 and 5am, which means it will have a significant impact on the morning commute. For the most part, the snow will be light, but there will be a few embedded steadier bursts of snow through the morning. The snow should wind down and end between 12 and 3 pm, so it could have an impact on the afternoon commute, but the roads should be in good shape by that point as long as crews have been keeping up with it all day.

As for how much to expect, as we already mentioned, this won’t be a big deal. However, since it’s the first real widespread accumulating snow of the winter, it’ll turn into a bigger deal than it probably should be. Here’s our thinking:

Southern NH: 1-3″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 2-4″
I-95 corridor: 3-5″
Southeastern Mass/RI: 4-7″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-5″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Weather Service forecast is fairly close to ours, maybe a tad higher. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday looks to be sunny but chilly, with another system bringing milder air and rain back in later Sunday into early Monday. However, it’s looking more and more like a brief but significant cold shot is coming for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. We’ll provide an update on the snow forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow.

Weekly Outlook: December 20-26, 2021

“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”

Sure, there’s some snow on the ground in southern New Hampshire, but it won’t last too long, and the rest of us have bare ground. However, there is a chance we could have a White Christmas for parts of the region, depending on a potential storm system next weekend.

The week is starting on a very chilly note. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re starting the week on a chilly note, in the wake of the system to moved through Saturday night. We’ll turn a little milder on Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward but another weak cold front will move through. How weak? Aside from a few clouds, you’ll barely notice it, except for the fact that it’ll turn a little cooler once again. A low pressure system will pass south and east of the region on Wednesday while a second one passes well to the north. The southern system may spread some light rain into parts of eastern Massachusetts, while the northern one has little impact other than some clouds. Some of the models show the possibility of the rain spreading farther inland, where some colder air could be in place. This would imply the potential for a little freezing rain from southern New Hampshire into parts of central Massachusetts. We’re not confident that will be the case, but do acknowledge that it is possible. High pressure builds in with drier and colder conditions on Thursday.

At this point, we feel compelled to remind you that the forecast models have really struggle beyond 2-3 days lately. So, the forecast for Christmas Weekend is highly uncertain, and you should treat it that way.

A weak disturbance may cross the region on Christmas Eve with some snow showers possible. Christmas Day is very uncertain at this point. Low pressure will head across the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, sending a warm front this way. The question is, does a secondary area of low pressure form along this front, and if so, where does it track, and also, how strong does it get? At this point, a scenario similar to the one we just had on Saturday seems plausible, with snow changing to a wintry mix and possibly rain inland, and rain possibly starting as some snow along the coast. Of course, this is all subject to change and some fine-tuning as we go through the next several days. An upper-level low will follow for Sunday, keeping some clouds and possibly a few lingering snow showers around.

Once again, there’s not much model agreement on our potential system for Christmas Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-37.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine through some high clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, some light rain is possible in eastern Massachusetts, possibly a little freezing rain across the interior. High 35-42, except 43-50 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Friday: Cloudy with some snow showers possible. High 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: December 17-20,2021

This shouldn’t be a surprise, since it’s mid-December, but it’s going to snow this weekend.

Temperatures are 15-25 degrees above normal this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After a mild day, a cold front will approach the region tonight, but only a few stray showers will accompany it. The front moves through early on Friday, but we’ll remain mild before a stronger push of colder air moves in late in the day as high pressure starts to build in across southern Canada. As we get to Saturday, low pressure will begin moving out of the Midwest and head towards New England, while a secondary area of low pressure develops south of New England. Exactly where this low tracks will help us determine how far north the warmer air will push, which is a key part of the forecast.

Where does the low track and how far north does the warm air penetrate? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow should develop across the region towards midday or a little thereafter. A very quick change to rain is expected across the South Coast, if it doesn’t start as rain there. The rain/snow line should quickly move northward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. The evening and overnight is where things get tricky. The warmer air likely only gets as far north as the Mass Pike or possibly Route 2. However, we’ll also have warmer air moving in aloft, which means a change to sleet or freezing rain is possible across northern Massachusetts and possibly southern New Hampshire, even if it doesn’t all change to plain rain. Any changeover will have a significant impact on snow amounts. As the low moves away early Sunday, a change back to snow is possible before everything winds down toward daybreak. High pressure then builds in with sunshine and cooler conditions for Sunday afternoon and Monday.

So, how much are we looking at? There are plenty of models out there showing a decent snowstorm, especially across the interior. We’re not buying it. We think they’re underestimating the mild air aloft. A quicker change to sleet and/or rain than what some of the models are showing seems more likely, especially the farther south and east you go. So, having said that, here’s our thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: A few flakes
Points south and east of Interstate-95: 1″ or less
Metro West/North Shore: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 1-3″
Southern NH/Central MA: 3-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

The National Blend of Models is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, slight chance for a shower, some clearing late. Low 44-51.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, high clouds start to stream back in late in the day. High 50-57.

Friday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow developing during the afternoon, quickly changing to rain along the South Coast. High 35-42.

Saturday night: Light snow across southern New Hampshire, changing to sleet and freezing rain across northern Massachusetts, and plain rain elsewhere. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers ending around daybreak, clearing in the afternoon. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Clear and colder. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 27-34.

Weekly Outlook: December 13-19, 2021

We’re in a fairly active weather pattern, but despite that, we’re not going to have too much going on for a good portion of this week.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, bringing us sunshine and mild temperatures today. A weak frontal system drops southward across the region on Tuesday with a few clouds, but it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure passes by to the north on Wednesday while that weak front starts to head northward again as a warm front. It will send some clouds into the region on Wednesday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures may be near freezing for a while Wednesday evening into southern New Hampshire before the milder air moves back in, which means a period of icing or even some wet snow is possible as the precipitation overspreads the region.

Conditions could be iffy across southern New Hampshire for a while Wednesday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday looks to be quite mild once again, with temperatures well into the 50s, possibly topping 60 in some locations. However, low pressure will be moving across southern Canada, dragging a cold front towards the area. Some showers may accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier and cooler conditions.

Thursday looks like another mild afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Next weekend is where there is considerable uncertainty. The models have done rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days recently, so looking ahead 6 days is a low-confidence forecast to begin with. However, the models seem to come up with a different solution nearly every run lately, and none of them agree with the others. A wave of low pressure may move toward the region for Saturday, but exactly where it goes (or if it even develops), is a giant question mark. Some models bring it well north of us, resulting in mild conditions and rain. Some bring in close to or over the region, resulting in a wintry mix, and some bring it south of the region, which could mean snow, or it stays too far south and we get no impacts at all. At this point, any of those solutions could be the right one. As Ozzy Osbourne famous sang “Don’t look at me for answers, don’t ask me, I don’t know.”

Ozzy was singing about this weekend’s forecast

Sunday looks to be dry and cool with high pressure building back in, but that could be impacted by what happens (or doesn’t happen) on Saturday. We should have more clarity on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Rain, snow, or nothing on Saturday? Depends which model you look at. We trust none of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some clouds in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 44-51.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain or wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild, any showers ending in the morning. High 52-59.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 47-54.

Saturday: Partly to mostly ________ with a chance of _______. (We’ll fill in the blanks later this week). High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 33-40.

Some Snow is on the Way

The first widespread measurable snowfall of the year is on the way for most of us, but overall, it’s not that big of a deal.

Most of the region has already seen snowflakes this season, and even had a coating on the grass in spots, but the system moving in for Wednesday will bring us our first measurable snow of the year. If this were the middle of winter, you’d barely notice it, but since it’s the first one of the season, and it will be timed for the afternoon commute, plenty of people will lose their minds and forget how to drive in the snow.

Very little snow has fallen so far this season. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A low pressure system will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday and head northeastward while strengthening, passing well south and east of New England. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move into Northern New England. If these two were to interact, it could create a pretty impressive low pressure system. However, they won’t, so we’re just left in the middle, with some light snow inland and rain along the coast, changing to snow during the evening. There could be some snow showers around during the morning, especially across southern New Hampshire, but the bulk of the activity should move in between 2 and 4pm, just in the for the afternoon commute. Light snow will continue through the evening, with rain south of Boston. The rain should change over to snow during the evening, with everything winding down by midnight, possibly a little later across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.

The GFS model depicts the progression of the storm across the area. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

There is still a little bit of an unknown with this system. Some of the models are showing an enhanced band of snow developing along the coastline during the evening hours. Not all of the models show this, and the ones that do, don’t all show it in the same area. Some show it in coastal Maine, some along the New Hampshire Seacoast, some near Cape Ann, and some along the South Shore. We’re not convinced this will even develop, but are wary that it may, and will take that into account in the forecast.

So, how much do we expect? For the most part, most of us will see an inch or less (like we said, not a big deal). A few places could see 1-2 inches. There is a low probability that coastal locations could see more than that, if that enhanced band does develop.

The GFS model is closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Overall, this more of a nuisance than anything. Another system may bring in a little light snow early Friday before a big warmup on Saturday, when many of us will break into the 60s once again.

Weekly Outlook: December 6-12, 2021

We’ve got some rather typical December weather coming up this week with the possibility of some snow, temperatures in the 60s, and thunderstorms. Wait, what?

Low pressure will move across southeastern Canada today, dragging a warm front across the region this morning. Some showers are likely ahead of the front, but once it pushes through, gusty southerly winds will bring unseasonably mild conditions in. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the afternoon and evening for parts of southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island, as those southerly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph at times. Temperatures should get to 60 in much of the region despite plenty of clouds, though it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw more than a little sunshine during the afternoon, which could allow for even milder temperatures than we’re currently expecting.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher this afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A strong cold front will move through by evening, with another round of showers ahead of that front, possibly even some thunderstorms. As the much cooler air sweeps in behind the front on gusty west to northwest winds, we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain before it ends across parts of southern New Hampshire.

One batch of rain moves through this morning and another this evening. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions, though there are some indications that a few streamers of lake-effect snow could eventually survive the trip eastward and move across the region during the afternoon. It shouldn’t amount to anything more than some scattered flurries, but it is a possibility. Clouds move right back into the region by Tuesday evening ahead of another storm system.

Editorial note: With an active and fast-moving pattern in place, many of the forecast models have been struggling mightily to the point of being useless beyond 2 or 3 days. With that in mind, everything below is highly uncertain, with lower confidence than usual. We’re giving you our current thoughts and “best guess” for lack of a better term, but there’s a decent chance that all of this could change, especially later in the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the evolution and track of our mid-week storm system, but the basics are that it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and pass south of New England. How far south is unknown at this point, and will have a significant impact on the forecast. The models are nowhere near close to a consensus at this point, with solutions that range from a track well to the south with little to no impact, to a track closer to the region with the potential for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow across the region with rain near the south coast. For now, our preliminary thinking is a track a decent ways south of the region, with just some light snow, with rain right along the coast. Obviously this is subject to change, and depending on how things look, we may write another blog post tomorrow, since this could be the first accumulating snow of the season for parts of the region. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we’re not going to mention any amounts at this point, and if you see anyone online or in the media posting snow maps you should ignore them, because they’re just as clueless as everyone else.

The models all have differing ideas for what might happen on Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds back in for Thursday with dry and chilly conditions, then another storm may quickly follows for Friday. Some of the models show little to no precipitation with this system others show the chance for some rain, starting as snow north and west of Boston. We’ll obviously have a better idea on this system when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, but for now, we’re just going to call it a chance of rain or snow. That system moves out Friday night, but the active pattern remains in place, with yet another system quickly moving in for the weekend. This one looks much milder, with rain and breezy conditions, though it could end as some snow across the interior as colder air moves in on the backside of the storm.

Saturday could be another very mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Early showers, then some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon, becoming windy and mild. High 62-69.

Monday night: Showers and possibly some thunderstorms during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Some wet snow may mix with the rain before it ends from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and much cooler, clouds stream back in late in the day. Chance for a few flurries. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, except snow or rain along the coast. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with a chance of showers. High 53-60.

Sunday: Showers may mix with wet snow before ending in the morning. becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 43-50.