Here at Storm HQ, we like to separate fact from fiction, or more appropriately, hype from reality. So, we’re going to do that once again in regards to a few topics involving this week’s weather.

Claim: 2020 is now the most active Hurricane Season on record.

Reality: Nope, it isn’t. Not yet at least. With the formation of now-Tropical Storm Zeta a few days ago, many people, including many that should know better, were quick to proclaim that 2020 had now tied 2005 as the busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season ever, since the last named storm in 2005 was also Zeta. However, many people didn’t bother to review that 2005 season. Every year, when the season ends (officially: November 30), the folks down at the National Hurricane Center do a review of everything, to see if there were any storms that they missed. It turns out, that in 2005, there was an unnamed subtropical storm that was added after the fact. So, 2005 ended up with 28 storms of tropical storm strength, and 2020 only has 27 such storms so far.

For those counting, 2005 still holds the record for the most number of named storms in a season (28). NHC identified an "unnamed" subtropical storm in its post-season analysis that year, which is included in the total. With #Zeta, the number for 2020 currently stands at 27.

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 25, 2020

As for Zeta itself, after making landfall in the Yucatan just south of Cancun last night with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, it has weakened to a tropical storm. However, as of midday, the center was moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and it is expected to re-intensify into a hurricane later today. While Zeta is currently heading northwestward, a turn more toward the north and eventually northeast is expected over the next 24-36 hours, as a trough of low pressure in the nation’s midsection pulls the storm in. Unfortunately, that means that Zeta will likely make landfall as a hurricane late Wednesday afternoon or evening along the central Gulf Coast. The current forecast has landfall in southeastern Louisiana, but anywhere from western Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should keep an eye on Zeta’s progress. Strong winds, storm surge, and flooding from heavy rain are all threats with this storm.

Claim: An historic arctic outbreak is impacting much of the Rockies and Plains.

Reality: This one is definitely true. It’s been brutally cold out there for the past few days, with many records not only being broken, but being annihilated, and in some cases, these records have stood for over 100 years. In Bozeman, Montana, the low temperature Monday morning was 20 below zero. The record low for the day was 11 above zero, set back in 2002. When a record low is broken by 31 degrees, that’s historic. The low of -20 also shattered that city’s record low for the month of October, which was -14. Again, beating a monthly record by 6 degrees doesn’t happen that often. A little farther to the south is the town of Lyman, Wyoming. Lyman was the nation’s cold spot on Monday, when the low temperature bottomed out at 31 degrees below zero. That’s the actual temperature, not the wind chill. This is the earliest in the season that anywhere in the Lower 48 states has ever dropped to 30 below or colder, breaking a record set on October 29, 1917. With all of this cold air in place, and a storm system in the Desert Southwest, snow and ice have been common from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and parts of Texas. This storm system and the cold air will move eastward over the next few days, but the air should moderate significantly.

Claim: Snow in Southern New England in October means that Winter won’t feature much snow.

Reality: As with most things involving winter in New England, this one varies. Most people believe this to be true because after the big pre-Halloween snowstorm (“Snowtober”) in 2011, we didn’t get much snow through the rest of the winter. Something similar happened in 1979, when we received measurable snow on October 9-10, then little to no snow through most of the winter. The problem is, those aren’t the only times it’s ever snowed in October around here. Using data for Lowell, snow has been recorded in October during 18 of the past 91 years. During those 18 years, Lowell has averaged 53″ of snow, compared to a “normal” winter, when Lowell averages 55.8″ of snow. Of these 18 winters, all of them except for 1979-80, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured at least one month between November and April with above normal snow. (1979 and 2011 both had above normal snow in October). Of the remaining 15, 12 of them had at least two months with above normal snow. Of the 18 overall, 13 of them featured above normal snowfall in either December, January, or both months. So, if we see some flakes on Friday, it does not automatically mean that we won’t see much this winter. (Sorry!)

Claim: The first snowstorm of the winter is expected on Friday.

Reality: Unless you live in the hills of Worcester County or in southwestern New Hampshire, this is probably not true. We talked about this in our Weekly Outlook yesterday – the pattern for the end of the week is complex, but things are looking a little clearer today. What’s left of Zeta will pass south of the region on Thursday, bringing some much-needed rain into the area. However, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rain may stay south of New England. Right behind it will be the system that is producing wintry weather across the Southern Plains. That system will pass to our south Thursday night and early Friday. As colder air gets drawn southward behind Zeta’s remnants, and the moisture from the second storm moves in, we’ll likely see the rain mix with or change over to sleet and snow across the hills of Worcester County and into the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. In these spots, we could see some minor accumulations, possibly a few inches. For the rest of us from southern New Hampshire into eastern Massachusetts, some sleet or snow will likely mix with the rain before it ends Friday afternoon. While there could be some slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, this is far from definite and certainly isn’t a “snowstorm”, despite any hype from the local media. Plus, as we mentioned at the start of this paragraph, it isn’t even that uncommon. It happens on average once every five years in Lowell, and the last time that it happened was – five years ago, in 2015.

Once that storm moves away, some of the modified arctic air will move in, resulting in the coldest night of the season thus far. Temperatures will drop into the 20s across much of the area Saturday morning, resulting in a killing freeze in many places that have not yet had one. So, if you still have any plants outside that need to be brought in, now is the time. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only reach the 40s Saturday afternoon. For any kids that are trick-or-treating during the late afternoon or evening, temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to middle 40s, so make sure they are dressed properly for the weather.

It’s coming. Most of you don’t want to hear it, but you’re going to anyways. No, we’re not talking about changing the clocks this coming weekend. We’re talking about something scarier that happens before that, and it’s not Halloween either. It’s the first mention of “snow” in the forecast.

We’ll start the week with a rather “blah” day. A warm front will try to lift northward into the region, but probably won’t make it (a sign of things to come this winter?). As a result, we’re stuck with plenty of clouds, some drizzle and/or showers, and cool temperatures. A cold front will move through at night, with a few more showers possible. Behind the front we’ll have a couple of drier days for Tuesday and Wednesday, but as little upper-level disturbances move through, we’ll still have some clouds and maybe a shower or two. With high pressure to the north, we’ll still have easterly winds, so it will remain on the cool side, with temperatures generally running a few degrees below where they should be in late October.

The end of the week is where things get interesting, complicated, and uncertain. A frontal boundary will remain stalled out south of the region keeping us cool. Meanwhile, what’s left of Tropical Storm Zeta will move across the Tennessee Valley and will likely ride along that boundary to our south. How far south that boundary lies will help determine how far north the rains from Zeta get. Thursday will be a cool, wet day obviously, but how wet remains to be seen. Some models are showing the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially along the South Coast, which would help somewhat with the drought, but also make the day even more miserable.

But wait, that’s not all. At the same time, an upper-level low will be moving out of the Plains and toward the Mid-Atlantic states, while another upper-level disturbance will be moving across the Great Lakes and towards New England. These two will help determine our weather for Thursday night and Friday. Some models show the potential for these two systems to join up or “phase”. This happens often during the winter to create some of our stronger storms. We’re not convinced that will happen here. Even if it does, it may not happen until the disturbances are past us, in which case, it won’t matter. Even if they don’t phase, we’re going to see colder air get drawn southward in the wake of Zeta’s remnants and as another low passes south of us. At the same time, we’ll have more precipitation moving in. So, while Friday will be another chilly and wet day, it’s becoming more likely that the rain will change over to wet snow in some of the hills from Worcester County into the Monadnocks, where there may even be enough to turn the ground white. For the rest of us, there are still too many variables to really be too definitive. We wouldn’t be shocked if some wet snow mixed in with the rain across parts of southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. There are some models that are forecasting accumulating snow around here. We can’t even rule that out, if everything lines up perfectly. We’re not expecting a repeat of “Snowtober”, but other than that, anything is possible.

Once that system pulls away, high pressure builds in with sunshine and chilly temperatures for Halloween. Make sure the kids are bundled up if they are heading out to trick or treat, as it will be chilly Saturday evening. The high slides offshore on Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate, but the next system will be quickly approaching, with some showers possible by evening.

Monday: Clouds, drizzle, fog, maybe a few showers. Blah. High 52-59.

Monday night: Cloudy with a shower possible. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Clouds and some afternoon sunny breaks. High 52-59.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine, a few showers are possible. High 50-57.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly become a steady rain late in the day. High 50-57.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain and showers possibly mixing with or changing over to some wet snow before ending in the afternoon. High 38-45.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 42-49.

Sunday: Some early sun, then clouds return with showers possible late in the day. High 51-58.

Last week’s rainfall will help, but this week will bring little to no relief from the drought.

Much of the upcoming will will be dry across the region thanks to a large offshore high pressure area. That doesn’t mean it will be sunny every day, however. We’ll have a frontal system stalled out to our north and west for most of the week, with the high offshore preventing it from moving through. As waves of low pressure ride along the front, we’ll have some cloud cover, and a few stray showers may move in at times, especially Tuesday or Wednesday, but for the most part, it will remain dry.

Although it won’t be completely sunny, it will be relatively warm for mid-October. We’ll have southwest winds bringing mild air in, with temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s this week, which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

By later Saturday, that cold front will finally have enough of a push to move through, but again, it won’t produce much in the way of rainfall, just a few showers. What will be noticeable is the cooler air settling in for next Sunday, bringing temperatures back where they should be for late October, maybe even a little below normal.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds. High 58-65.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a shower or two. High 65-72.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers late in the day and at night. High 63-70.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, cooler. High 52-59.

Some much-needed rainfall is finally on the way, but we need a lot more.

The remains of Hurricane Delta will move into the Mid-Atlantic states today, bringing that region some more heavy rainfall. Some of that rain will get into southern New England today, but it doesn’t look like it will make too much progress northward, thanks to high pressure that will be slow to move out. Right out, it looks like most of the rain today will be south of a line that stretches from Hartford to Providence to Plymouth, or roughly south of Route 44. A few showers may get farther north, but the bulk of the rainfall should stay south during the daytime. With the high to the northeast and low pressure to the southeast, we’ll have brisk northeast winds resulting in a rather cool day across the region, with temperatures likely staying in the 50s for most of us.

As low pressure gets a little closer tonight and a cold front starts to approach from the west, rainfall should become more widespread across the region. Some of the rain may be heavy, and it may actually bring down some warmer air from aloft, allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees. The rain continues into Tuesday, which should be a bit milder, ending from west to east during the afternoon as the cold front moves across the region.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing some sunshine and milder weather back in. However, our dry and mild weather will be short-lived. Another cold front approaches on Friday, with another round of showers expected. Some of the models try to develop an area of low pressure along this front which would bring some heavier rain into the region, but we’re skeptical of that scenario at this point. Since the drought began in the Spring, we’ve seen numerous model forecasts for a decent amount of rain several days out that fizzle as it gets closer. Until we see something to change our mind, we’ll continue to lean towards lighter amounts of rain. (Even the rain for today/tomorrow was forecast to be much heavier by the models just a day or two ago) While we’re leaning dry, we are mindful of the fact that more than one model is going for the rain to last through Saturday and into early Sunday. In fact, one of the models actually has the rain change to snow across the mountains of northern New England this weekend as colder air moves in. Obviously, we should have much more clarity on the weekend forecast when we issue our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon, but we just wanted to warn you up front that although our forecast right now shows a decent weekend, that is subject to change.

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with some showers likely, mainly close to the South Coast. High 51-58.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with more widespread showers and a period of steady rain, possibly heavy in spots. Low 46-53, but temperatures may drift up a few degrees after midnight, especially south of Boston.

Tuesday: Periods of rain and showers during the morning, ending from west to east during the afternoon. High 57-64, possibly a little warmer near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Gradual clearing. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 62-69.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 65-72.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with some showers likely. High 65-72.

Saturday: Early clouds, then becoming partly sunny. High 56-63.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 54-61.

We’re not expecting much drought relief again this week, but it won’t be completely bone-dry either.

The week actually starts off with low pressure passing south and east of the region this morning. It will produce some showers across the Cape and Islands, and possibly into parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but once you get north and west of Interstate-95, there won’t be any rain to be found. The system pulls away during the afternoon and high pressure builds in, with skies quickly clearing out. The high will slide offshore tonight, but another weak system will move through on Tuesday, with some more clouds and possibly a few brief showers.

Clouds become more numerous on Wednesday as low pressure heads into the St. Lawrence Valley. While it’ll be warmer, we’ll also have some showers to deal with, and possibly a rumble of thunder as well. The system will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday night, bringing an end to the shower activity.

Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher cooler air into the region on Thursday despite a decent amount of sunshine. As the winds start to die down Thursday night, we’ll have clear skies, setting up a very chilly night, with some places possibly getting down close to freezing. Friday will be another cool day despite ample sunshine, but then high pressure will slide offshore, resulting in a warming trend for next weekend.

Monday: Cloudy during the morning with some showers south of Boston, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 61-68.

Monday night: Clear skies, a little patchy fog is possible in a few spots. Low 45-52.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers during the afternoon. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers developing, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 66-73.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler. High 58-65.

Friday: Sunny and cool. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 64-71.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Finally, we’ll briefly mention the tropics. Tropical Storm Gamma will continue to produce heavy rain across the Yucatan Peninsula for a few more days as it drifts into the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Depression 26 will likely become Tropical Storm Delta today (it may already have done so by the time you read this). It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Jamaica today, then the Cayman Islands and western Cuba over the next few days. It will then head into the Gulf of Mexico, and could threaten the central Gulf Coast later in the week as a hurricane. We’ll have a much more detailed post about the tropics later today or more likely on Tuesday.