Thanksgiving is upon us, and at least it shouldn’t be as cold as last year. We’ve got a few things to worry about before worrying about leftovers though.

Similar to last week, we’re starting off this week with a bit of an icing problem. Many roads remained wet after yesterday’s rain, and temperatures dropped below freezing this morning, so again, if you’re heading out this morning, be careful as untreated surfaces could be slippery. We will see sunshine though, as high pressure builds into the region. That’ll keep it on cool side today, but as the high slides off to the east, milder weather will settle in for Tuesday.

Moving along, Wednesday is a big travel day for many people, and also the last work day of the week for plenty of people as well. Well, it’ll be mild, but also damp. Low pressure will pass north and west of the region, so we’ll be on the warm side of it for a while, but it will drag a cold front through late in the day. That’ll bring an end to the rain, but also usher colder air in for Thanksgiving. It won’t be as cold as last year, but it will still be cool and breezy, so bundle up if you’re heading outside, especially if you’re heading to one of the traditional Thanksgiving high school football games.

Sunny and cool conditions are expected on Friday as high pressure builds in, so dress warmly if you’re heading out for some Black Friday sales. The dry and cool weather continues into Saturday. Sunday, however, is still a big question mark. Low pressure will move into the Midwest for the weekend, but could impact our area on Sunday. The models don’t agree on the evolution of the system, and as a result, have a wide variety of ideas. At this point, almost anything could happen. We could have snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, any combination of all of these, or even none of them if the system ends up moving slower than expected. For now, we’ll just say that Sunday looks unsettled, and we should have a better idea of what to expect later in the week.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds, watch out for black ice in the morning. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 47-54.

Thanksgiving: A mix of sun and clouds, a lingering shower or two are possible across parts of Cape Cod, breezy. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Saturday: Sunshine gradually fades behind increasing clouds. High 34-41.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of…….something. High 38-45.

Ice in your drink? That’s a good thing. Ice on an injury? It helps, so it’s good too. Ice on the roadways? Not good at all. Unfortunately, some of you may have to deal with that this morning.

The low pressure system that brought heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding to the Carolinas over the weekend will pass south and east of New England today, bring some of those same issues here, but also introducing other problems. It will bring in some rainfall to our area today, with some strong winds, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Some coastal flooding is possible across eastern Massachusetts around high tide as well. However, the biggest problem will already be ongoing (or maybe even over) by the time most of you read this.

Some light precipitation will move into the region this morning ahead of the system. Temperatures will also be below freezing, mainly north and west of Interstate 95. What happens when you have subfreezing temperatures at the surface, warmer air aloft, and some precipitation falling? If you guessed freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle, then you are correct! That’s bad news if you’ve got to be out and about on the roads this morning. Most cities and towns should have pre-treated the roads, but some of the side roads and also bridges and overpasses could be a little slick this morning, so use caution and give yourself a little extra time. Temperatures should warm above freezing most places this morning before the steadier and heavier rain arrives, so there shouldn’t be too many problems.

After a miserable day today (temperatures in the 30s, gusty winds, and rain – you have a better word to describe it?), the system pulls away tonight, but one last batch of precipitation moves through overnight and early Tuesday as an upper-level low pressure area moves across the Northeast. This will be mostly rain, but as some colder air starts to move in behind the storm, some wet snowflakes could mix in, especially across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Once the system pulls away, we dry out on Tuesday, but the clouds remain in place into Wednesday as another system passes offshore. This one will be too far offshore to produce anything more than clouds, but it will help to bring colder air down from the north. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday with clearing and chilly weather.

Clouds come back late Thursday as low pressure heads toward southeastern Canada. That low passes by to the north and west on Friday, dragging a cold front across the region. It will get mild ahead of the front, but some more rain is expected as well. Once the front moves through, high pressure builds back in for Saturday with another shot of cold weather. Sunday is still up in the air a bit. We’ve got one model showing a weak system passing by to the north, with a few snow showers, while another model has a system moving in from the southwest, with some rain, and a third model has high pressure building in.

If you’re looking ahead to Thanksgiving already, well, it’s too early to try and pin down any specifics, but most of the models have a fairly potent storm system moving out of the Midwest and towards the Northeast sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. For now at least, the models are showing mostly rain, but again, it’s a long ways away. If you’re traveling for the holiday, just keep an eye on the forecast. We’ll have more details in next week’s outlook obviously.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy (windy across Cape Cod) with some freezing drizzle north and west of I=95 in the morning, changing to plain rain by midday. Occasional showers becoming a steady rain during the afternoon south and east of I-95. High 33-40 north and west of Boston, 40-47 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with some showers likely. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow over the higher terrain. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds. High 38-45.

Thursday: That big bright thing in the sky returns, though some high clouds move in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with some showers likely. High 49-56.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. High 38-45.

Sunday: Clouds return again with a chance for some showers. High 40-47.

Uh-oh. It’s that time. You’ve been dreading it, but you knew it was coming eventually. We’re going to use a four-letter word that you hate. That’s right, the word is “snow”. It is November after all, and your luck will run out eventually.

We’ll start the week under the influence of high pressure, so another dry and cool day is expected today. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing some showers, but they shouldn’t be too heavy or last that long. Ahead of the front, it actually might be a bit mild around here. Don’t get too used to it, because high pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and cool weather once again. This brings us to the end of the week.

Another cold front will move through on Thursday, with some rain likely. The front will likely stall out, but where it stalls is still a big question mark. It’s an important one too, as a wave of low pressure will likely ride along the front. One model has the front stall out well to the south, with the wave staying well offshore. This would allow high pressure to build in, and result in a dry but very cold Friday, and into the weekend. Other models have the front stall just south of the region, and the wave pass a lot closer. This would likely result widespread precipitation across the region, with at least some of it falling as snow across the interior, possibly even to the coastline. High pressure would then build in behind the storm for a dry and very chilly weekend.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this storm, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to lean. On one hand, some of the models have been indicating for quite some time now the possibility of snow for parts of the area somewhere in the November 9-13 time frame. However, they’ve been changing with the details on nearly every run, so while our confidence has growing that we’d some “some” snow during that period, we really couldn’t go into deeper detail than that. At this point, we still can’t, because there is still little agreement with the models. However, should we end up dealing with a storm system, the closer you are to the coast, the less likely you’ll see accumulating snow. Ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so a wind blowing off the ocean would bring milder air in along the coast. Plus, the ground is still relatively mild. Sure, we could see some snow even at the coastline, but the better chance for accumulating snow would be north and west of Boston. The farther inland, the better the odds. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on the evolution of this system as the week goes on, and if needed, will write a special blog post later in the week.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming cloudy with a few showers likely during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies become mostly clear. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 44-51.

Thursday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy with showers developing late in the day. Showers may change to snow overnight, especially north and west of Boston. High 47-54.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow north and west of Boston in the morning, chance of rain possibly mixed with wet snow from Boston southward. Skies will clear out late in the day. High 34-41.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

One final note – several models show the potential for another system towards the middle of next week that may also contain the “s” word. Welcome to winter!