Extreme Temperatures, Weekly Outlook, Winter Weather

Weekly Outlook: November 11-17, 2019

Thank you to all that have served or continue to serve our nation. Image provided by the United States Army

Are you ready? Ready for Winter? It’s coming, and quickly. Better enjoy today, because after that, it’s going to get cold.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, but we’ll have plenty of clouds as a cold front begins to approach the region. That front will move through on Tuesday, with some rain likely ahead of it. Low pressure will develop along this front and move right across the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the low and the front, it will be somewhat mild, but once the front moves through in the afternoon, that’s when things start to happen.

NAM model forecast showing rain coming in ahead of the cold front, changing to snow before ending behind it. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Colder air comes surging in behind the front, and temperatures will quickly drop Tuesday afternoon. Rain will likely change over to sleet and snow from northwest to southeast. Now we’re not talking about a lot of snow, probably an inch or less in most spots, and mainly on grassy surfaces, but snow will be the least of the concerns. Gusty winds will help to dry out the roads, and ground temperatures remain fairly mild, but with temperatures dropping into the 20s by late Tuesday, we could see some ice developing, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. So, if you’re going to be out and about Tuesday evening or night, use caution.

While there might be a pretty good snowstorm up north, around here, we’re not expecting much. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ve covered the snow potential, and the potential for slick roads, but here’s the biggest issue we’ll be dealing with – it’s going to be cold. When we say “cold”, we mean “COLD”. As in, record low temperatures Wednesday morning across most of the region. As in wind chills (another phrase most of you don’t like) in the single numbers (Fahrenheit, not Celsius). Yeah, it’s going to feel like January Tuesday night into Wednesday. Oh yeah, we forgot to mention that Wednesday may see highs in the 20s to lower 30s.

Any location that is circled is likely to set a record low temperatures Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s going to be cold. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Winds will diminish for Thursday, but it will remain chilly. Temperatures should start to moderate a little on Friday as high pressure slides offshore. Of course, another cold front comes through Friday night and then we get cold again next weekend, but probably not quite as cold as Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will still be well below normal.

Wind chills will be in the single numbers when most of you wake up Wednesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 41-48 north and west of Boston, 49-56 south of Boston.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers developing late at night. Evening low 34-41 north and west of Boston, 42-49 south of Boston. Temperatures may rise after midnight

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, changing to sleet and snow during the afternoon. Morning high 42-49 north and west of Boston, 50-57 south of Boston, then temperatures quickly drop in the afternoon.

GFS forecast for temperatures starting at midnight tonight and ending at 7am Wednesday. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Tuesday night: Any lingering snow showers end in the evening, then clearing, breezy, and colder. Low 13-20.

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, and cold. High 25-32.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few flurries are possible at night. High 34-41.

Friday: Sunshine to start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 4-10, 2019

Uh-oh. It’s that time. You’ve been dreading it, but you knew it was coming eventually. We’re going to use a four-letter word that you hate. That’s right, the word is “snow”. It is November after all, and your luck will run out eventually.

On average, our first measurable snow occurs in late October or early November across the region. Image provided by NOAA.

We’ll start the week under the influence of high pressure, so another dry and cool day is expected today. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing some showers, but they shouldn’t be too heavy or last that long. Ahead of the front, it actually might be a bit mild around here. Don’t get too used to it, because high pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and cool weather once again. This brings us to the end of the week.

Another cold front will move through on Thursday, with some rain likely. The front will likely stall out, but where it stalls is still a big question mark. It’s an important one too, as a wave of low pressure will likely ride along the front. One model has the front stall out well to the south, with the wave staying well offshore. This would allow high pressure to build in, and result in a dry but very cold Friday, and into the weekend. Other models have the front stall just south of the region, and the wave pass a lot closer. This would likely result widespread precipitation across the region, with at least some of it falling as snow across the interior, possibly even to the coastline. High pressure would then build in behind the storm for a dry and very chilly weekend.

The ECMWF model is not painting a pretty picture for Thursday night and Friday. We’ll be paying close attention to it and other models this week. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this storm, and at this point, we’re not sure which way to lean. On one hand, some of the models have been indicating for quite some time now the possibility of snow for parts of the area somewhere in the November 9-13 time frame. However, they’ve been changing with the details on nearly every run, so while our confidence has growing that we’d some “some” snow during that period, we really couldn’t go into deeper detail than that. At this point, we still can’t, because there is still little agreement with the models. However, should we end up dealing with a storm system, the closer you are to the coast, the less likely you’ll see accumulating snow. Ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so a wind blowing off the ocean would bring milder air in along the coast. Plus, the ground is still relatively mild. Sure, we could see some snow even at the coastline, but the better chance for accumulating snow would be north and west of Boston. The farther inland, the better the odds. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on the evolution of this system as the week goes on, and if needed, will write a special blog post later in the week.

Saturday looks like it is going to be quite chilly across the Northeast, no matter what happens before then. Time to pull out the winter clothes. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming cloudy with a few showers likely during the afternoon. High 54-61.

Tuesday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies become mostly clear. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 44-51.

Thursday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy with showers developing late in the day. Showers may change to snow overnight, especially north and west of Boston. High 47-54.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow north and west of Boston in the morning, chance of rain possibly mixed with wet snow from Boston southward. Skies will clear out late in the day. High 34-41.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 41-48.

One final note – several models show the potential for another system towards the middle of next week that may also contain the “s” word. Welcome to winter!