Some fairly typical summertime weather continues for a few more days, but relief arrives at the end of the week.
Temperatures remain above normal for much of the work week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The cold front that moved through yesterday bringing some drier air into the region will lift back northward as a warm front today, allowing the humidity to return. As the humid air returns we could see a few showers and thunderstorms this evening, but they’ll be weakening as they move in from the west, and might not make it all the way to the coastline. Another weak cold front moves through early Tuesday, with sunshine and drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be hazy at times as more high-level smoke from wildfires in the West drifts into the region. Thursday will see a stronger cold front move into the region. It’ll be warm and humid ahead of it, with more showers and thunderstorms likely. The timing of the front will be key in determining whether we get any severe weather. Right now, it looks like the front moves through by early afternoon, but if it were delayed by a few hours, allowing additional time for the atmosphere to become unstable, severe weather would become more likely. This is something we’ll be keeping an eye on for the next few days. Behind the front, cooler and drier air settles in for Friday and Saturday. We’ll be watching another system moving out of the Midwest that could bring in some showers and thunderstorms later on Sunday.
Dewpoints in the 50s on Saturday? Certainly looking that way. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Hazy sunshine in the morning, clouds start to move in by late afternoon. High 83-90.
Monday night: Chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the evening, partly cloudy overnight. Low 66-73.
Tuesday: Hazy sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 82-89.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 62-69.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms likely. High 80-87.
Thursday night: Becoming clear. Low 60-67.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy, not as humid. High 78-85.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80.
El Nino has resulted in in a quiet start to hurricane season in the Atlantic, but things may be changing.
Several areas of interest are being monitored in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Image provided by PolarWx.
Atlantic Hurricane Season usually (but not always) features below normal activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The main reason for this is high-level wind shear, and that has been the case so far this season, especially across the Caribbean. In the tropics, trade winds resulting in most systems moving from east to west. Wind shear is when you have strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blowing from west to east. As thunderstorms intensity, the strong winds in the upper levels essentially rip the tops off of them, so they cannot fully develop, and thus systems can’t get organized.
Wind shear across the tropical Atlantic is the second strongest on record this season. Image provided by Colorado State University.
The other issue that has caused a relative dearth of storms in the Atlantic has been Saharan Dust. Every year, strong winds blow plumes of dust and sand from the Sahara across the Atlantic and towards the Caribbean and the Gulf. These plumes contain very dry air, inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms, and produce very hazy conditions across the islands of the Caribbean. Normally these plumes begin to wane in intensity by mid-to-late July, but this year they have remained fairly strong into early August. Another fairly strong plume will move across the Greater Antilles over the next few days.
Plumes of Saharan dust continue to cross the Atlantic. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
Most forecasts, including the most recent update from the team at Colorado State University, continue to show the likelihood of a below-normal season. Thus far, there have only been two named storms in the Atlantic – both in the Gulf. Short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur along the Texas coast in mid-June, and Tropical Storm Bertha, which brough gusty winds and heavy rain from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana in mid-July. On average, we should have had three named systems by now, with the third one forming around August 3, and the fourth named system of the season forming around August 15 on average. The first hurricane of the season forms around August 11 on average. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE, which factors storm strength and duration, activity in the Atlantic is only about 22% of normal thus far.
Forecasts continue to show the likelihood of a below normal hurricane season in the Atlantic. Image provided by Colorado State University.
Tropical waves continue to roll off of the west coast of Africa every few days, and as they move into the Atlantic they encounter the Saharan dust and accompanying dry air, the strong wind shear, and water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic that aren’t warm enough to support a tropical system, but that may be changing. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are now warm enough all the way to the coast of Africa to support a system. The last few waves that have moved into the Atlantic have been a bit more robust, with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast models are showing two areas that need to be watched in the Atlantic over the next week for development.
There are two disturbances that need to be monitored for development in the Atlantic over the next week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa early Friday is now southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions right now are marginally favorable for the system to get organized as it crosses the Atlantic. By the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles, wind shear will increase and conditions will quickly become hostile, eliminating any chance of further development. Another cluster of thunderstorms is moving off the west coast of Africa this evening, but it is farther north than most of the tropical waves, and will likely get choked off by Saharan dust fairly quickly.
Tropical waves continue to move across the Atlantic. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Another wave will move off of the west coast of Africa early next week. This wave is expected to be fairly robust, and will likely encounter a less hostile atmosphere as it moves into the Atlantic. Several forecast models have been indicating the possibility that this system could develop into at least a tropical depression, and possibly fairly quickly once it is over water. Of course, this is still days away, and until there is an actual storm for the models to initialize, it is all just speculation. It’s something we’ll continue to monitor for the next several days.
Many members of the ECMWF Ensemble show the potential for a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic next week. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
The Atlantic isn’t the only basin where things are getting active. There are three separate systems being monitored for development in the Eastern Pacific, once of which has a slight chance of impacting Hawaii later next week. In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Dolphin will make landfall in eastern China a few hundred miles south of Shanghai on Sunday. Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is expected to make landfall in Japan more than 100 miles north of Tokyo on Tuesday. Tropical Depression Kujira should become a tropical storm and pass a few hundred miles north of the Northern Marianna Islands late Sunday, and another system is expected to develop well northeast of the Northern Mariannas by early next week.
This is going to be one of the shortest and easiest to write forecasts we’ve ever done.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the region into Friday. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
A Bermuda High will remain anchored off the East Coast through the weekend and into early next week. That will result in very warm to hot and humid conditions with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. It won’t be as hot as the heat wave we had in early July, but it will be quite humid, so the heat index will remain uncomfortable. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather, but some of the thunderstorms that pop up each afternoon could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s through much of the weekend. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Any showers or thunderstorms taper off and end during the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy with areas of fog developing. Low 68-75.
Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds with some late-day showers and thunderstorms popping up. High 86-93.
Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 68-75.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 84-91.
Saturday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening mostly clear overnight. Low 67-74.
Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92.
Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92.
Some typical summertime weather is expected for the first full week of the last month of meteorological summer.
Heavy rainfall is possible across the interior today, with some flash flooding possible. Image provided by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
The week starts off on a wet note with a cold front approaching the region. A warm and humid airmass will be in place with gusty southwest winds at times, especially across eastern Massachusetts. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely through the morning, some of which could be locally heavy. Some pockets of flash flooding are possible, as the ground remains fairly saturated from recent rainfall, which has pretty much taken care of the drought. We’re still in a long-term rainfall deficit, but the drought itself is essentially gone. The showers will taper off, then we may see some sunny breaks develop. As the cold front moves in during the afternoon, it will trigger a second round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on how much sun we get, some of those storms could become severe.
Severe weather is possible across the interior this afternoon. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
The front moves offshore tonight then high pressure builds in with drier weather for Tuesday. High pressure then sets up residence off the East Coast, resulting in very warm to hot and humid weather from Wednesday through the weekend. As is typical of a warm and humid airmass in the summer, we’ll see a daily chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but any of these storms could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Above normal temperatures are expected for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Morning showers and thunderstorms, some may produce heavy downpours, then some sunny breaks develop. Showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the afternoon, breezy, very humid. High 74-81.
Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, clearing overnight. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, less humid. High 79-86.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 80-87.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84-91.
Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 83-90.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.
This does not look like a good week for a vacation.
Temperatures will be below normal for the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com.
We start the week off with dry and seasonably warm conditions as warm front moves across the region, bring some clouds in. Those clouds will thicken up at night as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the system on Tuesday, but as an upper-level low moves into the Midwest, the surface low pressure system will redevelop over the Mid-Atlantic states and head northeastward. The result is a rainy day on Wednesday, possibly quite a bit of rain. Some models show the potential for several inches of rain, resulting in flooding for some areas. The system will be slow to move out on Thursday with more showers likely, ending in the evening. Skies finally start to clear out on Friday the high pressure brings drier and milder air for the weekend.
Many of the models are showing the potential for heavy rainfall later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine fades behind increasing high clouds. High 79-86, cooler near the coast.
Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms developing. High 77-84.
Tuesday night: Scattered showers. Low 60-67.
Wednesday: Breezy with rain likely. High 69-76.
Wednesday night: Rain tapers off to showers. Low 59-66.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers. High 70-77.
In the winter, when you’re thinking about a long summer weekend, this is the weather you are dreaming about.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure in the Great Lakes will slide eastward over the next few days. The result will be sunshine, low humidity, and mild temperatures for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as well. There could be a little haze from wildfire smoke at times, but nothing like what we had a couple of weeks ago. By Monday, the next system will begin approaching. We’ll see some clouds start to move in, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day as a warm front approaches.
High temperatures are usually in the lower to middle 80s at this time of year. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.
Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 77-84.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 76-83.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Monday: Partly sunny, chance for showers and thunderstorms towards evening. High 79-86.
Much of the upcoming week should feature some rather nice weather.
Temperatures will be near to a little below normal over the next few days. Image provided by weathermodels.com
The week starts off with high pressure in control, keeping the smoke off to our south, and giving us sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. As the high moves offshore, Tuesday will be similar, though we’ll see temperatures a little warmer, and a few more clouds, especially late in the day. A warm front will be heading our way, with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of it late Tuesday night into part of Wednesday. Wednesday should be much more humid as well, with southwest winds behind the front bringing the humidity back in. A cold front will move in late in the day, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of that front, some of the storms could be rather potent. High pressure then builds in with drier weather for the end of the week and start of the weekend. Humidity levels start to increase again late in the weekend as another front begins heading our way.
Beneficial rain is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, especially south of the Mass Pike. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.
Monday night: Clear during the evening, increasing clouds overnight. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, breezy. High 75-82.
Tuesday night: Plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms taper off early, becoming partly sunny, breezy, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 80-87.
Wednesday night: Showers may linger across parts of Cape Cod, gradual clearing elsewhere. Low 58-65.
Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, not as humid. High 74-81.
Some more smoke is in our future, but so is some rain.
Plumes of smoke will continue to move in over the next few days. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
Another plume of smoke will move through this evening, but a cold front is moving through at the same time. The front will produce a few showers and thunderstorms through the evening, but most of us will remain dry, especially south of the Mass Pike. As the front slides offshore it will take the smoke with it. Friday should be a rather nice day with sunshine, lower humidity, and warm temperatures. Another plume of smoke will start to move in towards evening, but most of the day should be smoke free. After that, low pressure will start heading our way, sending a warm front through. Saturday may start off with some hazy sun, but clouds will quickly move in, with humidity levels also rising. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the day and at night. We need all the rain we can get to help put a dent in the drought, and this will provide some, but we need a lot more and to have it fall with more consistency. We’ll gradually clear out behind the system on Sunday, with cooler and drier air return. High pressure provides us with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures on Monday, though we need to watch to see if more smoke will head our way.
Some models show the potential for heavy rain across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts Saturday, but many don’t. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Evening clouds and smoke, showers and thunderstorms ending, then clearing overnight. Low 56-63.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, some smoke and haze may return towards evening. High 78-85.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some haze and smoke around. Low 56-63.
Saturday: Some hazy morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, breezy. High 82-89.
Saturday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms gradually ending. Low 64-71.
Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, less humid. High 78-85.
Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 57-64.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, some smoke and haze could return late in the day. High 77-84.
Heat and humidity will return this week, but not to the extent that we experienced recently.
Heat returns to the region on Tuesday. Image provided by weathermodels.com
High pressure slides offshore today, with increasing temperatures and humidity levels. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but they’ll be few and far between. Tuesday looks even hotter, except along the South Coast and Cape Cod, with southwest winds act as a seabreeze. A cold front moves through early Wednesday with little fanfare, but it will bring some drier air into the region. It will remain hot, and with northwest winds, the heat will get all the way down to the South Coast. Another front moves through on Thursday, possibly producing a shower or thunderstorm, but most places will remain dry, which means we don’t get much drought relief. Cooler air settles in for Friday. The weekend is a bit uncertain at this point. A low pressure system may move out of the Great Lakes and towards New England with some showers and thunderstorms at some point, but the timing, and whether the system even materializes, is still a question.
A system may bring in some rain late Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, breezy. High 82-89, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 64-71.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, humid. High 90-97, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, muggy. Low 73-80.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, not as humid. High 88-95.
Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 64-71.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, breezy. High 84-91.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 61-68.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87.
Saturday: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 78-85.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.
Hot and humid weather will make a brief return, but most of the weekend looks rather nice.
It will feel like it is in the 90s across most of the region Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure sitting offshore has brought high humidity back to the region along with very warm to hot conditions, but it won’t last too long. A cold front will cross the region on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it during the afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather but some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The front pushes offshore Friday night, though it could linger near the South Coast for a while, keeping some clouds and possibly a few showers into early Saturday, otherwise, high pressure builds back in with lower humidity and seasonable warm conditions for the rest of the weekend and Monday.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s behind the front on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Any showers end this evening, partly to mostly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Low 66-73.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. High 82-89.
Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off and end, becoming partly cloudy across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Low 63-70.
Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, less humid. High 77-84, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
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