Spring begins today, and we’ve got some nice weather for a few days, but the latter half of the week may not be as nice.
Tuesday is the pick of the week with sunshine and temperatures possibly making a run at 60. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday with dry weather and a warming trend expected. It’ll still be breezy today, but winds should diminish into Tuesday. Clouds will start to increase on Wednesday ahead of a warm front. That front will produce some showers Wednesday night into early Thursday, setting up a very mild day, with some showers possible. The front will sag southward as a cold front late in the day, likely stalling out near or just south of New England. Another wave of low pressure rides along that front on Friday with some additional showers likely, depending on where the front stalls out. With some cooler air in place, we could see some wet snow mix in across northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire if the front does stay out near the South Coast, but these are the types of details that are kind of fuzzy this far out, and will need to be fine-tuned later this week. Another low pressure likely moves up the St. Lawrence Valley over the weekend with a secondary low pressure system passing south of New England, but the details regarding timing and precipitation type with this system vary depending on which model you look at.
Saturday may not be a great day around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Wall-to-wall sunshine, breezy. High 45-52.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy during the afternoon. High 53-60.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 29-36.
Wednesday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with showers possible at night. High 51-58, cooler at the coast.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with a few showers early, then becoming more numerous late in the day and into the evening. High 52-59.
Friday: Cloudy, more showers possible, breezy. High 48-55.
Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain or possibly snow, especially north and west of Boston. High 40-47.
Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance for showers early, breezy. High 44-51.
The final weekend of astronomical winter will be a fairly quiet one across the region.
Astronomical Spring begins with the Vernal Equinox at 5:24pm Monday. Image provided by EarthSky.org
Clouds start to stream into the region tonight ahead of a warm front. A few showers are likely on Friday as the front moves across the region,, but it will be quickly followed by a cold front early Saturday, which may produce a few more showers. We’ll clear out behind the cold front on Saturday, but the colder air will take its time moving in, so we’ll have another mild day, which shouldn’t interfere with any St. Patrick’s Day celebrations. High pressure settles in for latter half the weekend with dry and cooler weather on Sunday, but temperatures will start to moderate for Monday.
Normal high temperatures for mid-March are generally in the middle 40s for our area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Partly cloudy through the evening, clouds increase after midnight. Low 27-34.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with a few late-day showers. High 47-54.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers, mainly during the evening. Low 33-40.
Saturday: A few showers early, then becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 46-53.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and cooler. High 34-41.
Sunday night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 20-27.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 42-49.
As Metallica sings in the beginning of the song “All Nightmare Long”, luck does indeed run out. After getting lucky for nearly the entire winter without a major snowstorm, it appears that our luck has finally run out.
Today will be the literal calm before the storm with high pressure sliding off to the east, but still keep us dry despite plenty of cloudcover. After that, we turn our eyes to a developing low pressure system moving up the East Coast. This will likely be a potent storm when it gets up here, producing strong winds and quite a bit of precipitation. It’s also expected to stall out and perhaps make a bit of a loop, which means we’re looking at a long-duration storm, starting this evening, and likely not ending until Wednesday morning. That’s what we’re fairly certain about. What we’re not certain about is the actually track the storm takes, and where it stalls/makes a loop, and that is the most critical part of the forecast. Temperatures will be marginal to begin with, so a degree or two will make a huge difference. We’re not worried about any warm air aloft, so sleet and freezing rain aren’t a concern – just a good old-fashioned rain/snow line. With marginal temperatures, intensity will also help determine what falls, as lighter precipitation will be more rain than snow, while heavier precipitation will bring some colder air down from aloft, resulting in more snow than rain.
Whether it’s rain or melted snow, this will be a rather juicy storm. Image provided by WeatherBell.
OK, having said all that, he’s our best estimate as to what we expect – low pressure moves up the East Coast, passing just south and east of Cape Cod. Meanwhile, a much weaker secondary low will move across Long Island and southern Connecticut, before it weakens and dissipates. This will help keep temperatures a little warmer, especially near the South Coast, with east to southeast winds. The original rather potent system will then do a loop in the waters just east of New England, before finally moving away on Wednesday. In terms of sensible weather we’re probably looking at nearly all snow north of the Mass Pike and outside of I-495, especially in the hills. South and east of there, precipitation likely starts as rain this evening, gradually changing to snow from northwest to southeast during the day on Tuesday as the system moves off to the east, and strong north to northwest winds bring cooler air in. Those winds will gust to 40-50 mph at times, but luckily tides are astronomically low, so coastal flooding isn’t a widespread concern.
We think the forecast track on the NAM is close to what might happen. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
As for snowfall, we need to make a distinction here between snowfall and snow accumulation. With the increasing sun angle, and the warmer ground, snow will have a hard time accumulating during the daylight hours, especially on paved surfaces, when precipitation is falling lightly. So, it could snow for quite some time, but there won’t be much on the ground. The model forecast maps that people love to share on Facebook and Twitter show snowfall, and as we’ve just said, those maps will not be reflective of what you may see on the ground when this storm winds down. What are we expecting for accumulation?
0-2″ – Outer Cape/Islands 2-4″ – South Coast/Upper Cape/Coastal Plymouth County 4-7″ – I-95 corridor (Providence/Boston), southeastern Massachusetts/North Shore 5-9″ – Metro West/Essex County/NH Seacoast 6-12″ – Merrimack Valley/Southern New Hampshire 8-16″ – Hilly terrain from northwest Rhode Island into central Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire with isolated heavier amounts possible.
We will note that there are some models that do bring heavier (in some cases MUCH heavier) snow into eastern and especially southeastern Massachusetts. We’re not putting much stock in those. However, if they do end up correct, our snowfall forecast will be off by several orders of magnitude.
Our forecast isn’t that different from what the National Weather Service is forecasting. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Once this storm pulls away, high pressure builds in with drier and more seasonable conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system may move in later Friday into Saturday, but this looks like mainly rain, with drier weather again behind that storm on Sunday.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers developing late in the day. High 40-47.
Monday night: Windy with rain likely, changing to snow across southern New Hampshire and central Massachusetts toward daybreak, rain may be heavy at times. Low 32-39.
Tuesday: Windy with rain changing to snow from northwest to southeast during the day. Snow and rain could be heavy at times. High 33-40 early, temperatures hold steady or drop during the day.
Tuesday night: Windy with snow gradually tapering off. Low 27-34.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and windy, snow showers ending. High 33-40.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 42-49.
Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy, breezy, showers develop at night. High 45-52.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, showers likely, possibly changing to snow before ending at night. High 45-52.
What looked like a complicated forecast earlier this week looks a lot easier now for much of the weekend. Things get a lot more complicated later Monday though.
High pressure will continue to build in tonight and Friday, with generally dry and seasonably cool conditions continuing. A storm system will pass west and then south of the region Friday night and Saturday. The cloud shield from the system will overspread the region late Friday, but most of the snow (or rain) will likely stay to our south and west. Yes, some snow showers may move in Saturday morning (mixed with rain near the South Coast), but accumulations, if any, will be negligible, except toward the Worcester Hills and the hills of northern Rhode Island, but even there, less than an inch is expected. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and Sunday with chilly conditions once again. Monday is where things get interesting.
Very little snow is expected across our area on Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will start to move up the coast on Monday, spreading more clouds in, but beyond that, there is considerable uncertainty in the track of the storm. Some models keep it mostly south and east of us, some bring it right up over us. No matter what the track, they all forecast the storm to become fairly strong, and hang around, so the effects of the storm will continue into much of Tuesday. So, at a minimum, we’ll have some gusty winds, and possibly a little coastal flooding, though tides will not be at their astronomical high for the month. As for precipitation, well, that depends on the track. The closer the storm gets, the more likely we’ll see some rain, though snow is possible at the start and the end. The farther inland you get, the more likely you’ll see snow, and possibly some heavy snow. Some of the models are forecasting rather significant snow totals well north and west of Boston, but again, this will be highly dependent on the track. We should have a lot more clarity on this when we publish our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
The models do not agree on the placement or strength of our potential storm early next week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, clouds move back in during the afternoon. High 43-50.
Friday night: Cloudy with a few snow showers, possibly mixed with rain near the South Coast. Low 26-33.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some snow or rain showers early. High 35-42.
Saturday night: Clearing. Low 24-31.
Sunday: Morning sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 39-46.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 25-32.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, snow or rain possible late in the day. High 40-47.
Much of the upcoming week will feature quiet weather, a welcome change from the active pattern we’d had over the past few weeks.
Saturday’s storm produced light to moderate snow across much of the area. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
The week starts off with high pressure providing us sunshine and seasonable temperatures, but low pressure will continue to intensify in Atlantic Canada, producing gusty winds across the region for the next few days. A weak system will move out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday, likely passing south and west of the region, but it may be close enough for a few rain or snow showers. Wednesday and Thursday will feature intervals of clouds and sunshine with a few rain or snow showers along with gusty winds as disturbances rotate around low pressure south of Nova Scotia. By Friday, high pressure builds in with more sunshine and lighter winds.
Normal high temperatures for early March are in the lower to middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Unfortunately, next weekend does not look as quiet. Most of the models are showing the potential for a storm system to impact the region next weekend, but they differ considerably on the details, including timing, placement, strength, and precipitation type. Hopefully, things will become clearer later this week.
The models all have different ideas for what will happen next Saturday, Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, windy. High 41-48.
Monday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a rain or snow shower. High 32-39.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 22-29.
Wednesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, a rain or snow shower possible, mainly across Cape Cod. High 39-46.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a rain or snow shower, mainly near the coast. High 39-46.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 40-47.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for snow or rain. High 38-45.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, windy, chance for snow or rain. High 36-43.
Also, a remainder that Daylight Saving Time begins next Sunday at 2am, so you’ll lose an hour or sleep, or if you’ll be at work, you’ll have an hour less of work.
Meteorological spring began yesterday, so naturally, we’ve got a snowstorm on the way for a good chunk of the region.
High pressure builds in tonight with some clearing, but it won’t last too long. Couds quickly move back in on Friday as another storm system moves toward the region. This one will be somewhat similar to the last couple where the main storm system crosses the Great Lakes and heads up the St. Lawrence Valley while a secondary storm develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast and heads offshore south of New England. We’ll see snow developing Friday evening, quickly changing to rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Snow will continue overnight, but some warmer air will try to move in aloft, which will likely result in some sleet or rain mixing in. How far north that mixing occurs will obviously have a significant impact on the amount of snow that accumulates. Right now, our best thinking is that the mixing makes it to at least the Mass Pike, possibly up into the Merrimack Valley, during the morning and early afternoon on Saturday. The storm will also produce some gusty easterly winds, which will bring milder air in off the Atlantic, so a change to plain rain is possible near the coastline. By later Saturday afternoon, the system south of New England will pass off to the east, and winds will shift into the northeast and north, bringing cooler air back in, and allowing the precipitation to change back to all snow. While most of the steady snow should wind down towards evening, occasional snow showers may continue through the overnight as what’s left of the original low moves across the region. High pressure then builds in for later Sunday into Monday with dry and seasonably cool conditions.
Another double-barreled low will cross the region this weekend. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
So, how much snow are we expecting?
Cape Cod: 1″ or less South Coast: 1-2″ Southeastern MA/Central+Northern RI: 2-4″ Boston/MetroWest/Notre Shore: 3-6″ Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 4-8″ Southern/Central NH: 5-10″ with isolated amounts in excess of 12″
The amount of sleet and/or rain that mixes in will impact snowfall amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds increase. High 37-44.
Friday night: Snow developing, changing to rain South Coast and Cape Cod, mixing with some sleet and/or rain across southeastern MA and RI overnight, becoming windy. Low 27-34.
Saturday: Windy with snow, mixing with or changing to sleet and/or rain south of the Merrimack Valley, changing back to snow late in the day. High 34-41.
Saturday night: Cloudy and breezy with occasional snow showers. Low 22-29.
Sunday: Morning clouds, some afternoon clearing, breezy. High 36-43.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 40-47.
We’ve got a rather turbulent week coming up across the region.
High pressure will be in control to start the week, with a mostly dry Monday, but a storm system is on the way. Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and head up the St. Lawrence Valley while weakening. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head eastward. We’ll be in between the two, which means some light to perhaps moderate snow developing Monday night continuing into Tuesday. The Tuesday morning commute is going to be rough, so plan accordingly. As temperatures rise to near or above freezing, we may see a change to rain, especially across southeastern Massachusetts, possibly into the Boston area. So, the afternoon commute may not be as bad, especially south of Boston. The snow winds down during the evening. Despite earlier model predictions and internet hype, this will NOT be a big storm. In general, most of us will see 2-5″ of accumulation, perhaps a little less along the coast, perhaps a little more near the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire.
This will be a light to moderate snowstorm for the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Wednesday starts off dry, but another weak disturbance moves through late in the day with a few rain or snow showers possible. Another system quickly follows for Thursday, but this one looks warmer, as it will pass north of the region, so some rain showers are expected, maybe some freezing rain as you head up into central New Hampshire. That system moves offshore Thursday evening, then high pressure builds in, but it doesn’t hang around for too long. Yet another system quickly follows for late Friday into Saturday. There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this one, but it looks to pass near or just south of the region, so more snow is possible, or perhaps a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. Obviously, we’ll have a better idea of what this storm will bring (we hope), but the time we get around to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Yet another weak disturbance may bring in some snow showers Saturday night and early Sunday before high pressure builds back in.
The models have differing ideas on the potential for a storm late Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Morning sun, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.
Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing. Low 21-28, temperatures may rise a little after midnight.
Tuesday: Breezy with snow likely, possibly mixing with rain south of Boston. High 33-40.
Tuesday night: Snow (or rain), ending in the evening, some clearing after midnight. Low 22-29.
Wednesday: Some morning sun, clouds move back in during the afternoon, snow or rain showers possible in the evening. High 40-47.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with rain showers likely. High 46-53.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, snow, sleet, rain developing late in the day, becoming windy at night. High 35-42.
Saturday: Wintry mix ending in the morning, some sunny breaks in the afternoon, then some more snow showers possible at night, windy. High 32-39.
Sunday: Some morning snow showers, becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 34-41.
Winter has finally arrived, and it looks like it may hang around for a while.
Most of the snow overnight fell north of the Mass Pike. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
The second half of our double-barreled low pressure system will move across the region this evening and tonight, with another round of sleet, freezing rain, possibly some light snow, and plain rain near the South Coast. This round of precipitation should be light, and done shortly after midnight. A strong cold front moves through Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers. We’ll gradually clear out behind it in the afternoon, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air in, with temperatures dropping during the day. High pressure settles in Friday night, resulting in a rather chilly night, with lows dropping into the single numbers, possibly below zero in some of the colder spots, especially into southern New Hampshire. There will still be some wind around, so wind chills will drop below zero. Saturday will be a chilly day, but clouds will quickly return and thicken up as a weak disturbance moves through, possibly producing a few snow showers. Another weak system moves through on Sunday, with a few more snow or rain showers possible, then drier weather returns for Sunday night and early Monday. Clouds move back in during the day on Monday ahead of yet another storm system.
Wind chills likely will be below zero for much of the region when you wake up Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We don’t normally go beyond Monday on the Weekend Outlook, but wanted to address the next storm system currently expected to move in for Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the forecast models have shown the potential for a sizeable snowstorm around here on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the model snow maps have spread like wildfire across the internet. The thing is, right now, it’s just that – potential. The potential storm is still 5 days away, and the forecast models have been horrendous beyond about 2 or 3 days, so why should we trust the models with a 5-day forecast? The Ensembles also show the potential for a snowstorm, but a light to perhaps moderate one, not the blockbuster storm some of the operational models are showing. Yes, this winter has been fairly non-existent until the last few days, but a well-advertised pattern change has taken place. That doesn’t mean that suddenly every storm is going to be all snow (the current one isn’t). We’ll obviously have a lot more detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but for now, don’t get too concerned about the chance for a blizzard on Tuesday. Certainly you should be prepared for a storm (it is winter in New England after all), but if there’s cause for concern, we’ll let you know.
Many of the 31 members of the GFS Ensemble show only a light to moderate snowstorm Tuesday, highlighting the uncertainty with that system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Cloudy with a wintry mix of light snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain near the South Coast, ending after midnight. Low 19-26 north of the Mass Pike, 27-34 south of the Pike during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.
Friday: Clouds with some afternoon sunny breaks, windy, a few stray snow showers are possible in the morning. High 31-38 in the morning, temperatures drop through the afternoon.
Friday night: Clearing, except across the Outer Cape, breezy, and cold. Low 3-10.
Saturday: Becoming cloudy with a few flurries possible. High 19-26.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. High 34-41.
Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 15-22.
Monday: Early sun, then increasing clouds. High 32-39.
An active weather pattern will bring many changes to our weather this week.
We start off the week with a little rain across southeastern Massachusetts behind a departing disturbance. The rest of the day will be mild, but a cold front will swing through this afternoon with the chance for a few showers. We’ll clear out for a little while tonight behind that front, but clouds quickly return on Tuesday ahead of another disturbance. This one will bring in some more showers on Tuesday, but some snow could mix in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern and central New Hampshire. Accumulations won’t amount to much, but an inch or so is possible in southern New Hampshire. The real changes start on Wednesday.
A little bit of snow is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A double-barreled low pressure will move out of the Great Lakes and head toward the region later Wednesday into Thursday and early Friday. This will bring a variety of weather in. Precipitation will move in late Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely start as snow for much of the region, with a wintry mix or rain likely near the South Coast. Warmer air will move in aloft, eventually changing the precipitation to sleet and freezing rain. A change to plain rain is likely near the South Coast, but temperatures may stay below freezing across much of the remainder of the region, with a prolonged period of sleet and/or freezing rain possible Wednesday night and early Thursday. We may get a bit of a break Thursday afternoon before the second part of the system moves in with more mixed precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is the potential for several inches of snow before the changeover Wednesday night and Thursday morning, especially north of the Mass Pike, but this is highly uncertain at this point. Either way, the Thursday morning commute will be a mess.
The Thursday morning commute has the potential to be ugly around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in for late Friday and Saturday with some chilly weather, then another system quickly follows late Saturday into Sunday with a chance for some more light snow, possibly mixed with rain, especially near the South Coast.
Saturday morning could be rather chilly around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the afternoon, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 51-58.
Monday night: Partly cloudy through the evening, clouds move back in late at night. Low 27-34.
Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler with some rain or snow showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 36-43.
Tuesday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 24-31.
Wednesday: Early sun, then clouds return, snow and sleet developing at night. High 37-44.
Thursday: Snow changing to sleet and freezing rain, plain rain south of Boston, breezy. High 25-32 north of the Mass Pike, 33-40 south of the Pike.
Friday: Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain ending early, some late-day clearing, windy. High 30-37.
Saturday: Partly sunny and chilly, clouds thicken up in the afternoon, light snow developing at night, mixed with rain near the South Coast. High 23-30.
Sunday: Snow or rain ending early, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 36-43.
We’re in an active pattern right now, with lots of rapid-fire changes coming over the next few days.
Low pressure will cross central New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll remain quite mild in Friday morning, but some showers likely tonight. They’ll become more numerous on Friday as the low drags a strong cold front across the region during the morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will send temperatures downward fairly quickly Friday afternoon. The rain should come to an end during the evening, but enough colder air may work in that the rain could mix with or change to wet snow before ending across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. We’ll clear out late Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures start to moderate on Sunday as the high slides offshore, but clouds will also move in as a weak upper-level disturbance moves toward the area. It may produce a few showers Sunday night and early Monday, mainly across Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Another disturbance passes by late Monday and Monday night with a few more showers possible as it drags a cold front through late in the day.
Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon behind a cold front. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Cloudy and mild with some showers likely. Low 43-50 this evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.
Friday: Scattered showers, possibly mixing with wet snow late in the day north of Route 2, becoming windy and much cooler in the afternoon. High 55-62 in the morning (cooler across the NH Seacoast), temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.
Friday night: Rain or snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out late at night, breezy. Low 18-25.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 34-41.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. High 42-49.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 33-40.
Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.
Storm HQ 