Weekly Outlook: July 29-August 4, 2019

It’s back! The heat and humidity has returned, much to the delight of some, and dismay of others (count us among the “others”). It won’t hang around for too long though, but there’s not exactly any “cool” weather in our future.

Heat Advisories have been issued for parts of the region for Monday and Tuesday (shaded in orange on the map). Image provided by the National Weather Service.

We start the week off with high pressure anchored off the East Coast. This will result in southwesterly winds pumping warm and humid air into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Many places will likely top 90 once again, and with dewpoints remaining high, heat indices could approach 100 during the afternoons. Heat Advisories have been posted for parts of our area.

The heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s across the region Tuesday afternoon. Make sure you’re prepared if you’ll be outside. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Some spotty relief is possible during the next couple of afternoons, as some showers and thunderstorms will likely develop each day. Some of these storms could produce hail, heavy downpours, and strong winds, but a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected. Showers and storms will become more numerous on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. This front will be fairly weak, but it should push through by early Thursday. Behind it, some drier air will move in, along with slightly cooler conditions for Friday.

Dewpoints in the 50s on Friday is fine by us. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Right now, next weekend looks like it will be a typical summer weekend across the area. We’ll have temperatures in the 80s, moderate humidity levels, and some pop-up showers and thunderstorms to contend with. Nothing to cancel plans over, but something you’ll need to keep an eye on if you plan to be outdoors.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92.

Monday night: A shower or thunderstorm during the evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy and muggy. Low 66-73.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, humid, chance for a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms again. High 88-95, a little cooler along the south coast.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 66-73.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely, especially from late afternoon into the overnight hours. High 83-90.

Thursday: Any lingering showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and less humid. High 80-87, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 79-86, coolest along the coast.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 81-88.

Sunday: Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm is possible again. High 84-91, cooler along the coast.

Weekly Outlook: July 22-28, 2019

The heat and humidity are gone (for now), but some rain is in our immediate future, but much of this week should end up being rather nice.

A cold front moved across the region last night, bringing an end to our heat wave, and taking the humidity away as well. However, that front stalled out south of Long Island, and it will remain there today. It’ll still be warm today behind the front, but closer to what we should experience during the latter half of July. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, and it will produce some showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may contain gusty winds and heavy downpours, but a severe weather outbreak is not expected.

Some heavy rainfall amounts are possible over the next couple of days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A second wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Tuesday, bringing in another round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may produce heavy downpours, which could lead to some localized flooding. One other thing you’ll notice is that it will be much cooler with plenty of cloud cover for most of the day. Many places may stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout the day.

At least one model keeps temperatures in the 60s all day on Tuesday. We don’t think it’ll be quite that cool, but it’s certainly possible. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The front sags a little more southward on Wednesday as another wave of low pressure rides along it. This one will likely stay too far south to have any impact on us, except possibly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, but we’ll certainly keep an eye on it. For the rest of us, high pressure starts to build back in at the surface, but with an upper-level low pressure area moving through, we’ll see clouds sprout up in the afternoon, with a stray shower or thunderstorm not out of the question.

From Thursday through Sunday, high pressure will be in control with generally dry conditions. Temperatures will slowly warm up as we head through this period, as will humidity levels, but in general, they’ll be close to what you’d expect for late July, and nothing extreme like we just had this past weekend.

Monday: Some morning sunshine, then becoming mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 79-86.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, tapering off after midnight. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in the morning, tapering off late in the day. Some storms may contain heavy rainfall. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Lingering clouds early, especially along the South Coast, then becoming partly sunny. High 74-81.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 78-85, coolest along the coast.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 83-90.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 84-91.

Here Comes the Heat

Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect right through the weekend across much of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We warned you in our Weekly Outlook that it was coming, and it’s just about here – some brutal heat and humidity is expected for the next few days.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will be responsible for our heat and humidity through the weekend. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Friday will start out with some lingering clouds and a little fog, but the sun will return and as winds shift into the southwest, so will the heat and humidity. Many locations will reach 90 on Friday, but not everyone. Dewpoints will get into the lower 70s, sending the heat index well into the 90s across the region. At night, with plenty of humidity around, temperatures likely won’t drop below the middle 70s across the region, making for an uncomfortable sleeping night if you don’t have air conditioning. This sets the stage for Saturday.

Saturday will likely be the hottest day we’ve had around here in several years. Add in the high humidity (dewpoints again in the lower to middle 70s), and well, it’ll be downright brutal outside. Since it will already be warm to start, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will quickly jump in the morning, with many locations likely reaching 90 by lunchtime, but it won’t stop there. Temperatures will likely get into the upper 90s, with some spots, especially in the Merrimack Valley, possibly topping 100 degrees.

It’s going to be hot on Saturday. Really hot (by New England standards). Image provided by WeatherBell.

How rare is a 100-degree reading? Since the Merrimack Valley is the likeliest spot, here is some data for Lowell. In the 131 years of temperature records for Lowell, the city has topped 100 degrees just 35 times, or about once every four years. However, it’s actually been 8 years since Lowell hit 100, with a high of 102 on July 22, 2011. Before that, you have to go back to 2002, when it hit 101 on August 14, and 100 on July 3. So that’s just 3 times in the past 17 years. Skewing that average of once every 4 years is the fact that Lowell reached 100 5 times in 1911, 4 times in 1949, and 5 times in 1952. That’s 14 among those 3 years alone. July 22, 2011 was also the last time it reached 100 at Logan Airport in Boston, where they’ve only hit 100 25 times in 147 years of records.

With temperatures in the upper 90s (or higher), and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, that means that the heat index will be in the range of 105 to 110 degrees or higher during the hottest part of the day. If you have any plans to be outside, whether it be by the pool, at the beach, at the NASCAR activities in Loudon, or anywhere else, make sure you try to stay hydrated, and take plenty of breaks in the shade if you can.

Heat indices will likely be well over 100 across most of the region Saturday afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Saturday night will be another uncomfortable night, with low temperatures only dropping into the middle to upper 70s. Some of the urban locations, like Boston, may not drop below 80. This leads in to another brutally hot and humid day on Sunday. Once again, most places will likely reach 90 by lunchtime and keep going. High temperatures will again get into the upper 90s across the area, with some 100-degree readings possible. Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we’re looking at heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range once again.

Sunday looks to be another scorcher, but we’re not quite convinced it will be as hot as this model is showing. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By late Sunday, a cold front will start to approach, and it may produce some showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight. Behind it, much more seasonable air and lower humidity settles in for Monday. There may be a little relief in spots before that as well. Thunderstorm complexes in the Midwest will ride along the top of the upper-level ridge, as it typical in the summer. Right now, it looks like this may happen both late Friday and late Saturday. Unfortunately, it looks like these may fizzle before reaching the Northeast, and if they don’t, they will likely pass southwest of our area. So, we’re not holding out hope for these to help cool us off.

Long range forecasts show that some heat may return late next week into next weekend, but not nearly to the extent of what we’ll be dealing with for the next few days.

Weekly Outlook: July 15-21, 2019

Some people do like it hot. Here at Storm HQ we’re not part of that group, but to each their own.

We’ve largely escaped it so far this summer, but it looks like we’ve got some real heat coming later this week. Before then, we’ve actually got a rather nice stretch of weather coming up.

The week starts off with high pressure in control for Monday with sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity levels, a perfect combination for mid-July. The high slides offshore on Tuesday, which will allow humidity levels to start to creep up a little bit. A warm front moves through Tuesday night, with a chance for a shower. By Wednesday, hot and humid air moves in, but it may also come with some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. We’re not looking at any severe weather, but it will take the edge off the heat in the afternoon, and also make it even more humid late in the Friday.

Thursday is looking like a fairly wet day right now. What’s left of Tropical Storm Barry will likely move across the region, with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Since it’s a tropical airmass, some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall. It’s not going to be the 10-20 inches they’re getting in the Lower Mississippi Valley, but may be enough to cause a few problems around here.

The heat index could be well over 100 Friday afternoon across most of the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once ex-Barry pulls away early Friday, things will get hot. It will also remain humid, which means Friday will be a good day to find some air conditioning. If you are going to be outside, make sure you drink plenty of liquids, and wear sunscreen. Temperatures will likely soar well into the middle to perhaps upper 90s across the area. Friday night is looking rather ugly as well for sleeping, as much of the region may not drop below the upper 70s. Some of the cities may stay above 80 all night. Saturday is shaping up to be another hot day, but not quite as humid, with temperatures again in the 90s. Cooler and much drier weather settles in for Sunday.

Low temperatures may stay in the upper 70s to near 80 Saturday morning across the region. Around NYC, temperatures may not drop below the middle 80s. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 80-87.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 83-90.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. Low 67-74.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, humid, chance for an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. High 87-94.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, some may produce heavy rainfall. High 80-87.

Friday: Lingering clouds early, then becoming mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 90-97.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 90-97.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 85-92.

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf

It’s been a fairly slow start to hurricane season in the Atlantic, which is fairly normal, but things are starting to heat up in the Gulf of Mexico.

A disturbance dropped southward from the Tennessee Valley over the weekend, moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. With plenty of warm water and only a little wind shear, the system is starting to get organized this afternoon, and could become a tropical depression later today or on Thursday.

Thunderstorm activity is getting more organized in the northern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Loop provided by NOAA.

As of 2pm Wednesday, the system was centered about 155 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving toward the west-southwest at 8 mph. It is producing sustained winds of 30 mph, with some higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected for the next few days. A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch has also been posted from Pearl River to Morgan City.

Forecast tracks for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two from various forecast models. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The forecast models are fairly unanimous that the system will continue westward for the next 36-48 hours, but after that point things become unclear. A turn toward the northwest and eventually north is expected as an upper-level trough moves into the Great Plains, but when that turn occurs has a very significant impact on the system. A quicker turn means that the storm spends less time over the warm waters of the Gulf, and thus has less time to strengthen. A later turn means the opposite, more time over water, more time to strengthen, and the greater likelihood of it becoming a hurricane. Intensity forecasts are notoriously poor to begin with, and this system is no different. Very few models are predicting the system to reach hurricane strength, but the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast does call for the system to become a hurricane before landfall. As we mentioned already, the eventual track of the system will play a large part in determining this.

Intensity forecasts from various models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Image provided by the University of Wisconsin.

Storm surge is a danger with any storm system, and this one is no different. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is likely near where the center makes landfall. Since much of southern Louisiana is already low-lying, this could result in flooding for much of the region. Wind damage will also be a concern across the region, which again will be dependent on the strength of the system. Winds will pick up Friday night across portions of Louisiana and possibly eastern Texas, with landfall most likely on Saturday right now, but this is obviously subject to change.

Rainfall forecast for the Gulf Coast for the next 6 days. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

By far, the biggest threat with this system will be rainfall. Tropical systems produce copious amounts of rainfall, and this one will be no different. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected across parts of the Gulf Coast, with some amounts to 20 inches possible. This would produce widespread flooding across the region, but in this case, it will just exacerbate existing flooding problems. The Mississippi River remains above flood stage across the region, and this will only worsen the flooding. On top of that, thunderstorms dropped up to 10 inches of rain on parts of New Orleans Wednesday morning, and that’s before the precipitation from the system even reaches the area. The Mississippi River is expected to crest in New Orleans at a level of 20 feet, which is also the same height that the levee system protects the city to. Obviously this will bear watching. Upstream, the River has been above “Major Flood” stage in Baton Rouge since February 26. It’s not likely to drop below flood stage until at least some time in August, if then.

River forecast for the Mississippi River at New Orleans. Record flooding is not expected, but the levee system will likely be tested once again. Image provided by NOAA.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic remains quiet, with no other systems expected to develop in the next week or so.

Weekly Outlook: July 8-14, 2019

If you opted to take your vacation this week instead of during the holiday week, you’re in luck, because we’ve got a fantastic stretch of summer weather coming. The entire week won’t be spectacular, but most of it will.

Dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s for much of the region this afternoon, making for a comfortable day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start off with high pressure in control. This will give us sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity through Wednesday. In other words, nearly perfect weather for early July. The only potential fly in the ointment? High-level smoke from forest fires in Canada could dim the sunshine late Tuesday and especially on Wednesday. Humidity levels will start to increase on Wednesday as well, and more noticeably on Thursday as a cold front starts to approach the region.

Models show that smoke from Canadian wildfires could drift across the region on Wednesday, resulting in a hazy day with filtered sunshine. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday looks to be a very warm to hot and humid day, but clouds will be moving in as the cold front gets closer. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late in the day and at night, ending early Friday. The timing of the storms makes severe weather less likely, but with plenty of moisture available, we could be looking at some storms producing very heavy rainfall.

High pressure builds in behind the front later on Friday into Saturday with warm but drier conditions. Sunday could be dry as well, but this is where things get tricky. There’s a low pressure system in the Southeast right now that is expected to drift southward into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Once it gets into the Gulf and sits there for a day or two, there’s a decent chance it could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Many of the forecast models are showing this potential.

The ECMWF Ensemble is showing a 90% chance of a tropical depression forming in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Whether a storm forms or not, heavy rain is likely across the Southeast and the Gulf Coast of the next several days. If the storm does form, we’ll have to see what kind of track it takes. It will likely meander around for a few days, but some models are showing the possibility that the system, or what’s left of it, could move inland, and then head towards the Mid-Atlantic states late in the weekend or early next week. If that is the case, it could spread some rainfall into the region. Or, maybe it won’t. Tropical systems can be very unpredictable at times, and this one hasn’t even formed yet, so all of this is just speculation right now. Sunday could, and probably will, end up as another delightful day across our region. But, that is not definite yet. This may end up much ado about nothing for us, but since there is the chance it won’t be, we wanted to let you know that there’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on later this week.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 79-86.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.

Tuesday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 83-90.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Hazy sunshine, dimmed by high-level smoke. High 84-91.

Thursday: Some sun early, then clouds move in. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms develop towards evening, continuing overnight. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. High 83-90.

Friday: A few lingering showers early, then becoming partly sunny with a chance for a few more showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78-85.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 82-89.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91.

Weekly Outlook: July 1-7, 2019

We’d like to start this week’s outlook by wishing a Happy Canada Day to all of our friends north of the border. Celebrate the day with a double-double and some Timbits in the morning, then down a few Keith’s while watching the Jays lose in the afternoon. Your beer is great, your hockey and baseball teams aren’t. As for those of us in America, specifically eastern and southern New England, we’ve got a nice stretch of summer weather coming up this week.

You expected a different band on Canada Day?

Much of the first half of the week will be dominated by high pressure, with dry and seasonably warm weather expected along with moderate humidity. The exception will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. A weak upper-level disturbance will be moving across the region, and it may produce a few showers, but that’s about it. Otherwise, we’ve got some fantastic weather through Wednesday.

As most of you get set for barbecues, fireworks, and whatever else you have planned for the Fourth of July of Thursday, we’re looking at warm to hot weather along with increasing humidity. A late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible, so make sure you are paying attention if you have outdoor plans, but we’re not expecting widespread activity, and for most of you, there should be little to no impact.

Many areas will get close to or over 90 degrees Thursday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front will start to approach the region on Friday, which may produce some more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon, but it will be another warm and humid day. More showers and storms are expected on Saturday as the front finally moves through the area, but there isn’t a lot of cool air behind this front, so it will still be warm on Sunday. The biggest change will be some much drier air settling into the area.

Dewpoints could reach the lower 70s across much of the region on Friday and again on Saturday. That’s about as muggy as it gets around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 77-84.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy., chance for a few showers. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Early clouds and possibly a lingering shower, then becoming partly sunny. High 80-87.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82-89, cooler right along the coast.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few late-day showers and thunderstorms are possible. High 84-91.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy, with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 85-92.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with more showers and thunderstorms expected. High 85-92.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 76-83.