Weekend Outlook: December 30, 2022 – January 2, 2023

We’ve endured plenty of chilly Frist Night celebrations over the years around there. This year won’t be one of them.

Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees normal over the next few days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure slides offshore tonight and Friday, with dry and mild conditions expected. Clouds start to stream in Friday night ahead of a low pressure system moving this way. Saturday will be another mild, albeit cloudy, day. Showers will develop toward evening, becoming a steady rain overnight. So, if you’re heading out to celebrate New Year’s Eve, bring a raincoat. The rain should come to an end New Year’s morning, then skies clear out during the afternoon as the low pulls away and high pressure builds back in. For Monday, we should have partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, perfect for viewing the Winter Classic at Fenway (not so perfect for the ice condition).

Weather shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Winter Classic on Monday. Image provided by Warner Brothers.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and mild. High 48-55.

Friday night: Increasing clouds. Low 37-44.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers developing toward evening. High 51-58.

Saturday night: Periods of rain. Low 43-50.

Sunday: Showers end early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 44-51.

Weekly Outlook: December 26, 2022 – January 1, 2023

The final week of 2022 will feature a warmup across the region.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, keeping us chilly today. We’ll have sunshine in the morning, but clouds start to stream in during the afternoon as a weak disturbance moves toward the region. This may produce a few flurries tonight, but for the most part, we’ll remain dry. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with clearing skies and temperatures remaining near or a little below normal for late December. The warmup begins on Wednesday, and continues into the weekend, with temperatures getting above normal, perhaps well above normal for New Years Eve and New Years Day, with highs well into the 50s or even near 60. A weak backdoor cold front may try to bring in some cooler weather on Friday, especially from the North Shore to the New Hampshire Seacoast, but this is looking less and less likely as time goes on. The dry weather will continue into Saturday morning, but unfortunately, low pressure will approach later or New Years Eve into New Years Day with some rain, especially on Sunday.

It looks like 2023 is going to start on a very mild note. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Morning sunshine begins to fade behind increasing and thickening afternoon clouds. High 26-33.

Monday night: Cloudy with a few flurries possible, some clearing develops late at night. Low 16-23.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 28-35.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, milder. High 34-41.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 41-48.

Friday: Partly sunny and mild. High 47-54.

New Year’s Eve: Mostly cloudy, showers possible during the afternoon, becoming more likely at night. High 49-56.

New Year’s Day: Periods of rain. High 52-59.

Weekend Outlook: December 23-26, 2022

There used to be a waterpark in Orlando named Wet n’ Wild. That could also describe our forecast for the next 24 hours.

A rather potent storm system is moving toward the Great Lakes, producing blizzard conditions across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Behind the storm, arctic air is plunging southward from Canada. How cold is this airmass? When the front goes through, some places have dropped 30-40 degrees in an hour. In Denver, the temperature dropped to -24 this morning, just 1 degree off of their all-time record low for December. Up in the Northwest Territories of Canada, RabbitKettle Lake dropped to -64 this morning. That’s actual temperature, not wind chill. The airmass will moderate significantly before reaching us, but some colder air is definitely on the way.

Rain will move in this evening, and could be heavy at times overnight into Friday morning. Winds will start to pick up tonight, and should really be cranking Friday morning and into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-30 mph are likely, with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible, especially along the coast and in the hills. With strong winds and astronomical high tides, some coastal flooding is expected, mainly with the morning high tide on Friday. The rain may taper off for a while around midday Friday, but the cold front moves in from the afternoon. Unlike most cold fronts, this one will be moving from southwest to northeast, and the colder air will come in on southwest winds, which normally brings in milder air to our area. Temperatures will rapidly drop once the front moves through, and while they won’t drop 30-40 degrees in an hour, a drop of 20-30 degrees over a couple of hours is certainly possible. A line of showers will accompany the front, and as the colder air moves in, these showers could change to snow before ending in the evening. As temperatures plunge, any surfaces that are still wet will rapidly freeze up during the evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher on Friday, especially along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the storm pulls away on Christmas Eve, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast, keeping plenty of clouds around. Winds will remain gusty as the storm system meanders around in Quebec. With much colder air in place, and gusty southwest winds moving across the relatively mild ocean, some ocean-effect snow showers are possible across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann as well. Some accumulations are possible across Cape Cod. High pressure builds in for Christmas Day and Monday with drier and chilly conditions, with winds gradually dying down during the day on Christmas.

Some minor accumulations of snow are possible across Cape Cod and the South Coast this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Thursday night: Rain developing, becoming heavy at times overnight, becoming windy. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Friday: Rain tapers off to showers, more rain possible late in the day, possibly changing to snow toward evening, very windy. High 50-57 in the morning, temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, snow showers end in the evening for most, but may continue near the South Coast and Cape Cod, still windy and turning much colder. Low 9-16.

Christmas Eve: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, more snow showers possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 18-25.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy, some lingering snow showers possible across Cape Cod, still breezy. Low 9-16.

Christmas Day: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy again. High 21-28.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 14-21.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 26-33.

Weekly Outlook: December 19-25, 2022

Christmas Week will start and end dry, but the latter half of the week looks rather stormy.

Whatever you celebrate, we hope you enjoy it! Image provided by Adobe.

We start the week off with high pressure trying to build in while low pressure continues to meander around near Atlantic Canada. The result is dry weather through Wednesday as the high will be the dominant feature, but the gradient between the high and the offshore low will result in breezy conditions today and Tuesday. Temperatures will be fairly close to where they should be in the latter half of December.

Wind chills will be in the teens when many of you head out the door Tuesday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The end of the week is where things get rather complicated. Most of the models are trying to spin up a very strong storm and send it towards the Great Lakes. As a result, you’ve no doubt seen plenty of forecasts out there for a wind-swept mild rain on Friday. The people making these forecasts are taking the lazy way out, believing everything the models are saying, and not looking too deeply at the situation. That’s not how we do things here. Yes, the precipitation will be mostly likely be in the form of rain with this storm, and temperatures will probably be milder than normal. But a wind-swept mild rain? Far from a lock. In fact, we’re not sure that will materialize for a good chunk of the region. Allow us to explain:

First, the upper-level pieces of energy that will create the storm are still over water, in areas where there is little data, so the models are just guessing at this point. That will change in the next 24 hours or so as those upper-level disturbances move into Alaska and California respectively, so we’ll start to get a better idea of what will happen. Second, this storm may be in two parts, one late Thursday into early Friday and the second late Friday and Friday night, with a bit of a lull possible during the day on Friday. The first piece of energy, with the southern jet stream, likely stays weak and scoots along ahead of the main system. This may help to kick off a weak area of low pressure near the East Coast on Thursday, which could bring in some rain, but it may start a snow or a wintry mix across the interior before changing over to rain. As the northern stream energy moves into the Plains States, it will carve out a rather deep trough of low pressure at the upper-levels, which in turn will generate a rather potent storm system in the nation’s mid-section, which likely heads toward the Great Lakes. This is where our uncertainty starts to increase. Right now, the models keep those two streams separate. What happens if the southern stream storm is a little slower than the models forecast, and they do merge (or “phase”, as we usually call it)? Well, that could result in a stronger storm in the Midwest, possibly even a little farther west than the models show now. It also would lessen the likelihood of that rain and/or mix moving in here later Thursday. What about if that trough in the Plains States isn’t as sharp as the models predict? Well, then the storm ends up farther east, which has different implications here. When storms end up as far west the models currently show, it’s easy to look at the maps and say “it’ll be windy and warm east of the storm,” and assume that is the case all the way to the coast, but that’s the lazy way out.

The members of the GFS Ensemble all show a potent low near the Great Lakes on Saturday and a secondary low near or off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

In reality, when storms head up across the central and western Great Lakes, what usually happens is a weak wave of low pressure forms ahead of the main storm somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states. What that does, is it pinches off the warm air at the surface. Yes, we’ll still have strong southerly winds pumping in lots of moisture and warmer air aloft, but at the surface, you end up with east or northeast winds, keeping the cooler air locked in under what we call an inversion. Normally, temperatures decrease with height as you head up into the atmosphere. When it’s warmer as you go higher, the temperature profile is “inverted”. This also prevents those strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. So, you may get windy and mild conditions near the South Coast, but places like the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire could stay stuck in the upper 30s and lower 40s with little wind, but some rain, drizzle, and fog. We’ve seen this happen countless times, and wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what ends up happening around here on Friday. Eventually, as the storm moves into southeastern Canada, it will send a strong cold front in. Some rain, possibly heavy is likely ahead of that front, it the gusty winds associated with the front will eventually mix out that inversion, so temperatures could briefly spike well into the 50s or even lower 60s as the milder air moves in for a brief period ahead of, or even behind the front.

Friday’s high temperatures likely occur at night, then temperatures turn sharply colder on Saturday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

For Christmas Eve and Christmas Day we’ll have high pressure trying to build in with clearing, breezy, and colder conditions.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 33-40.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, rain developing late in the day, possibly starting as some snow or freezing rain across the interior. Rain may be heavy at night. High 39-46.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy along the coast, rain likely, possibly heavy at times, especially early and again late in the day. Rain may mix with or change to wet snow before ending at night. High 51-58 during the evening, but temperatures may stay in the upper 30s and 40s for much of the afternoon across the interior.

Christmas Eve: Becoming partly sunny and breezy with a few flurries possible, especially early. High 30-37 early, temperatures drop a little during the afternoon.

Christmas Day: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 25-32.

Weekend Outlook: December 16-19, 2022

A rather complex storm system is heading this way, but the forecast itself isn’t too complex for most of us.

The storm system that’s been producing blizzard conditions in the Plains and severe weather in the South over the last few days will head towards the Great Lakes tonight as a secondary area of low pressure takes shape over the Mid-Atlantic states. That system will pass close to or over southeastern Massachusetts Friday night. Ahead of it, we’ll have rain moving into the region tonight. The rain may start as some wet snow across the hills of Worcester County and southwestern New Hampshire, possibly even in parts of south-central New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, but gusty easterly winds will quickly bring milder air in off the still relatively mild Atlantic, quickly changing any snow over to rain at the lower elevations. Friday will be a windy, rainy, and cool day across the region. Wind may gust as high as 40-50 mph near the shoreline, but with tides astronomically low, coastal flooding is not a concern. As the storm passes by Friday night, winds will shift from the east to the northeast and eventually north and northwest, bringing cooler air back in. The precipitation will be moving out, but the rain will likely change over to snow before it ends around midday across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. As for accumulations, we’re looking at an inch or less across the Merrimack Valley and the New Hampshire Seacoast, an inch or possibly two across southern New Hampshire (including Nashua and Manchester), and 3-5 inches up towards Concord. Across the hills of northern Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire totals of 6-12 inches or more are likely.

The heaviest snow will be confined to the hills north and west of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once the storm moves out, temperatures will slowly drop during the day on Saturday, then skies start to clear out at night. An upper-level low pressure system moves across the region on Sunday with some additional clouds and possibly a few flurries. High pressure then builds in for Monday with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions.

Sunday’s temperatures will be a little below normal for mid-December, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Rain developing, possibly starting as a brief period of wet snow across southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy. Low 33-40 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. High 39-46.

Friday night: Rain may change back to snow across southern New Hampshire, breezy. Low 30-37.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with rain or snow showers ending by midday. Some sunny breaks may develop late. High 37-44 in the morning, temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few flurries, breezy. High 33-40.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 35-42.

Weekly Outlook: December 13-19, 2022

Colder weather has arrived, and more is on the way, but so is some rain.

The week starts off with low pressure pulling away from the region, with any lingering snow showers ending this morning, then skies start to clear out as high pressure builds in. Clear skies, lighter winds, and some fresh snowcover will result in radiational cooling tonight, with many places dropping into the teens. High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with sunshine and cool temperatures. An upper-level disturbance moves through on Wednesday, and it may be accompanied by some snow showers, especially along the coast. Even colder air settles in behind it for Wednesday night.

Wind chills will be in the teens when you leave the house Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Clouds start to stream back in on Thursday as low pressure begins to head toward the region from the Southwest. For most of the region, this looks like a rainstorm for Thursday night and Friday, but a period of snow or wintry mix to start across parts of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. However, this is still 4-5 days away, and a lot can change between now and then. Even small changes to the track that the low takes can have a big impact on the forecast. A track farther south and/or east could result in in wintry weather for a larger portion of the region and potentially for a longer period of time. We’ll be keeping a close eye on this as the week goes on. Behind the storm, cooler and drier weather returns next weekend.

Friday looks rather unsettled, but there are still plenty of details to work out. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Any lingering snow showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 33-40.

Monday night: Some clouds across the Outer Cape, otherwise clear and chilly. Low 16-23.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies, breezy. Low 16-23.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and breezy, chance for a few snow showers near the coast. High 32-39.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy, rain develops after midnight, possibly starting as snow or a wintry mix well inland. High 39-46.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow well inland. High 43-50.

Saturday: Rain may mix with or change over to snow before ending in the morning, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon, breezy. High 39-46.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: December 9-12, 2022

Cooler weather is on the way, and it looks like may even a little snow too.

High pressure builds in with cool and dry conditions tonight and Friday. Some clouds may start to filter in for Friday night and Saturday as a large ocean storm starts backing in. With a persistent east to northeast flow around this storm, we could see some drizzle or a few showers on Saturday across parts of eastern Massachusetts, especially Cape Cod. The clouds hang around on Sunday as another low pressure system moves into the eastern Great Lakes before heading southeastward, passing south of New England Sunday night and early Monday. It will spread some precipitation in, and with temperatures near or below freezing at night, it may fall in the form of snow. Most of the precipitation will fall west of our area, but some snow showers or even a period of light snow seems likely. For many of us, it will probably be enough to coat the ground, with a few spots possibly seeing an inch or so, except across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, where it will be more rain than snow. This is not a big storm, and most of the snow will fall Sunday night and early Monday, so keep that in mind if you’ll be out and about. The system pulls away on Monday, and high pressure builds back in with sunshine returning.

A little light snow is expected Sunday night. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday: Clear skies. Low 25-32.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 38-45.

Friday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 22-29, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance for some drizzle or a few showers, mainly across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. High 33-40.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, showers or drizzle taper off in the evening. Low 22-29, a little milder across southeastern Massachusetts.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, snow showers possible late in the day, mixed with rain across Cape Cod. High 31-38.

Sunday night: Scattered snow showers, except rain or snow showers across Cape Cod. Low 23-30.

Monday: Any lingering rain or snow showers end early, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: December 5-11, 2022

There’s a considerable amount of uncertainty in this week’s forecast, specifically the end of the week and next weekend, but even the first part of the week isn’t so clear-cut.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, resulting in a rather nice day by early December standards. Temperatures will start off cool, but with sunshine we’ll warm up nicely into the 40s in most spots. Clouds will start to stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening as a frontal system begins to approach from the west. Rain will develop during the day on Tuesday, but the temperatures are a bit of a question mark. Winds will shift into the southeast, allowing relatively milder air to move into parts of the region, but across the interior, the cooler air may hang on for quite a while. This is actually fairly typical for this time of year, and where the forecast models often struggle. They usually bring the warmer air in too quickly, but it often takes a lot longer than expected away from the coastline. This is more prevalent when there is snowcover, but it is not always necessary. The warmer air should eventually spread across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, with highs on Wednesday getting into the 50s in many locations. The rain will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, and while it may not be raining the entire time, some locally heavy rain is possible in spots. Rain eventually winds down Wednesday night as a cold front finally crosses the region, but it may not completely move offshore until Thursday morning. Skies may be slow to clear on Wednesday, and temperatures will turn cooler, but will probably still be above normal.

Normal high temperatures for early December are in the lower to middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Friday and the weekend is where the forecast confidence goes right down the tubes. The upper-level pattern will begin to change, with a blocking pattern setting up. A strong area of high pressure will settle in over Greenland, with a broad upper-level low pressure system setting up over eastern Canada. Exactly where these features setup will have a drastic impact on our weather. In some cases, this setup can result in a rather stormy pattern across our area, but if the features aren’t in the right spot, then storms could mostly shift south of us, and we stay cold and dry. At various times over the past several days, the models have indicated that either scenario is possible. A low pressure system will move out of the Tennessee Valley and head toward the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday, moving offshore and then likely meandering around off the East Coast through the weekend. Is the storm far enough north initially to bring us some rain (or snow)? When the storm is hanging around during the weekend, will it impact our area at all? If so, what will those impacts be? These are questions that just cannot be answered at this time, as there is just too much uncertainty. We are fairly sure that temperatures will turn cooler as the pattern changes, but will they still be above normal, closer to normal, or even below normal next weekend? There’s plenty of cold air that’s been building up in Canada, but will it get in here next weekend, or will it move in during the following week? Again, at this point, we just don’t know. We should have more clarity on Thursday when we publish our Weekend Outlook.

The models all have a storm off the East Coast next Saturday morning, but the details vary widely. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly sunny through midday, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 43-50.

Monday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 49-56.

Tuesday night: Periods of rain and showers. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Occasional rain and showers, ending at night. High 49-56.

Thursday: Becoming partly sunny. High 47-54.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for showers. High 40-47.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for snow or rain showers. High 37-44.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow or rain showers. High 39-46.

Weekend Outlook: December 2-5, 2022

We’ll ride the temperature rollercoaster for a few more days, but changes are on the horizon.

High pressure builds in for tonight and Friday with generally dry and seasonably cool conditions. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, but if you’ll be outdoors, wind chills will be in the 20s, so dress accordingly. Clouds start to move back in Friday night as another low pressure system heads for southeastern Canada. As a result, it’ll turn windy and milder again on Saturday, with some showers likely. Neither the winds nor the rain will be as intense as what we had yesterday, but it’ll still be quite breezy. A cold front moves through late in the day, ending both the rain and the milder air. Gusty northwest winds usher cooler air in for Sunday. As high pressure builds in, the winds will slacken, and it will remain dry and cool for Sunday into Monday.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are possible across the region on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Just a heads up, as it’s beyond the range of this outlook, and we’ll go into more detail in our Weekly Outlook Monday morning, but a large-scale pattern change is looming on the horizon. After another system brings in some rain on Tuesday, much cooler air will start to settle in on Wednesday, and beyond that, a chilly, but for the most part dry, pattern is expected for the middle part of December.

Much cooler weather is expected to settle in by the end of next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly clear with diminishing winds. Low 23-30.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 40-47.

Friday night: Increasing clouds. Low 31-38 during the evening, temperatures rise a little after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, windy, and mild, with showers likely. High 54-61.

Saturday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 41-48.