Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 30-November 5, 2017

If were able to sleep early this morning, then you missed quite a wild night weather-wise. Don’t worry, a repeat isn’t on the horizon.

The storm system that brought heavy rain and strong winds to the region overnight will head up into southeastern Canada today, but we’ll still feel it’s impact. Depending on how early you read this, it may still be raining, but that should end during the morning hours. While we won’t have winds gusting to hurricane force this afternoon like we did this morning, westerly winds behind the storm will still be fairly strong. Skies should clear out late today as high pressure starts to build in. This will bring us sunshine for Tuesday, but it will still remain breezy. Wednesday will start sunny, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon. After that, we jump on the roller coaster.

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One more warm day on Friday? Looking that way. Since we’re getting into November these will be harder to come by, so enjoy them while they are here. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A warm front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing some showers with it.  The warm front will extend southeastward from a storm moving across the Great Lakes. This will result in a warm day on Friday as the storm passes to our north. However, it will drag a cold front across the region, which may produce a few more showers. High pressure starts to build in from the north on Saturday, bringing some cooler weather to the area. Clouds quickly return on Saturday as a weak system moves out of the Ohio Valley towards the area. This will bring more showers in for Saturday night and Sunday. Unlike the last storm, it will be much cooler this time around. In fact, many places may struggle to reach 50 for highs on Sunday (Saturday too, for that matter). Add in the clouds and rain, and it may feel like a miserable day to be outside for any reason. Believe it or not, we could even see some wet snowflakes mix in as the rain moves in early Sunday morning, mainly across southern New Hampshire.

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That’s right – at least 1 model has some wet snow mixing in around here Sunday morning. Image provided by weather.us

Monday: Any lingering showers early this morning, then sunshine develops in the afternoon. Winds slowly diminish as well. High 60-67 early, dropping in the afternoon.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear, still breezy. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 52-59

Tuesday night: High clouds start streaming into the region with winds finally diminishing. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Some filtered sunshine early, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. High 57-64.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers, especially late in the day. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, clouds come back at night though. High 48-55.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely, possibly mixed with a little wet snow in southern New Hampshire early in the day. High 47-54.

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Heavy Rain/Snow

From Drought to Flood in Under a Week?

While everyone has been enjoying the extended summer around here, one thing that hasn’t been noticed by many is the recurrence of drought conditions across the region. However, that drought may be on the way out……again.

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Much of New England has slipped back into Abnormally Dry or Moderate Drought conditions over the past few weeks. Image provided by the US Drought Monitor.

 

As you may recall, we had a fairly significant drought around here in 2016 and early in 2017. By the end of the winter, the pattern shifted, and we started getting rain…a lot of it. This wiped out the drought across the region by early summer. Everyone’s lawn was green again and once it started getting warm, everyone was happy. Then, the rains essentially stopped again. Since it was dry and warm for the latter half of summer and into fall, nobody really complained that much. Sure, lawns weren’t so green any more, and maybe the foliage wasn’t as spectacular as usual, but it was in the 70s in October for days on end! Well, the pattern is shifting once again.

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Heavy rainfall fell across much of New England over the past 24 hours. Image provided by the Northeast River Forecast Center.

 

The changes already started on Tuesday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved slowly across the region. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 4.5 inches were observed, with the heaviest amounts in the Connecticut Valley. Localized flooding was observed with the heavy rain, but most rivers and streams were running fairly low, so river flooding isn’t a concern at the moment. While all this rain at once isn’t always good, it will help to put a dent in the drought, and eliminate some of the rainfall deficit we’ve accumulated since the beginning of summer.

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Except for Cape Cod, rainfall has been below to well below normal across most of New England since early July. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

 

As you may have noticed, the heavy rain of the past 24 hours has pushed offshore, but we’re not done with it yet. A cold front is slowly making its way across the region, and while temperatures will drop back to normal over the next few days, it will bring us more rain today and Thursday. As waves of low pressure ride up the front, they will bring more rainfall into the area, some of it heavy. For the rest of Wednesday, we can expect showers and drizzle, with some occasional bouts of steadier and heavier rain, especially in eastern New England. On Thursday, a stronger wave of low pressure will ride up the front, bringing another round of heavy rain into the region. Once again, the heaviest rain will be focused in eastern areas, with some downpours likely.

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Some of the rain in this map fell during the predawn hours of Wednesday. Still, some heavy rainfall totals are expected across eastern Massachusetts through Friday morning. Image provided by weather.us

 

The wave moves out, the front pushes offshore, and high pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile, another front will be approaching from the west. The storm system responsible for this front will produce the first significant snowstorm of the season from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes over the next few days. (Don’t worry, we’re not expecting any snow here.) Meanwhile, well to the south, there is a disturbance in the western Caribbean that is being monitored for development. It could become a tropical depression by this weekend before heading northward. Whether it develops or not, the system itself will likely get absorbed by the front approaching from the west, adding plenty of moisture. The result is another round of heavy rain across the region Sunday into Monday. Right now, it looks like the heaviest rainfall with this system will be focused on western New England and eastern New York, but given that it’s still 4-5 days away, we’ll keep an eye on this in case anything changes. While we’re expecting less rainfall in eastern areas, some gusty winds are likely, especially along the coastline.

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The heaviest rain Sunday into Monday looks to be centered across western New England and eastern New York. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Between the rain with the current system, and the rain expected Sunday into Monday, some rivers may see significant rises, with some flooding possible. At the very least, we’ll see additional flash flooding like we saw on Tuesday from the heavy downpours.

Once that system moves out, drier weather moves in for Halloween. For trick-or-treaters, expect clear to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s across the area during late afternoon/early evening hours. Beyond that, it looks like we’ll have another system come through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, though this one should produce lighter rainfall.

 

 

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 23-29, 2017

“Change. Now it’s time for change.
Nothing stays the same. Now it’s time for change.”

Motley Crue’s lyrics from 1989 are certainly an appropriate description of this week’s forecast. Changes are certainly on the way, but you’ll still have at least one more day to enjoy our extended summer.

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It was a little tough to see from the upper-level of Gillette Stadium in “Fogs-boro” Sunday night. Photo provided by Linda Galvin.

The week starts off with another warm day thanks to high pressure off the East Coast. If you watched last night’s Pats game in “Fogs-boro”, then you know that humidity levels are certainly higher now as well, thanks to a southerly flow of air. By Tuesday, the changes really start to settle in. An upper-level trough of low pressure settles into the Great Lakes, with a strong storm system at the surface as well. A frontal system extended well ahead of this storm will march towards the East Coast. With a warm, moist, southerly flow ahead of the front, we can expect some showers and gusty winds on Tuesday. Tuesday night into early Wednesday could be quite interesting as the front gets closer. Strong winds, locally heavy downpours, and even some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Tuesday night. Some wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible, while rainfall totals of 1-2 inches (or more) expected for parts of the region. The front pushes offshore on Wednesday, with the showers gradually ending and cooler air settling in behind it.

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Some locally heavy rainfall is possibly Tuesday into Wednesday. This may help battle drought conditions that are starting to creep back into the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The cooler air really starts to settle in on Thursday as the upper-level low moves overhead. As that happens, we can expect clouds to develop, along with some pop up showers during the afternoon. Across some of the higher elevations of Northern New England (places like Mt. Washington), some wet snow may fall with these showers. High pressure builds in for Friday and at least early Saturday. After that, things start to get complicated. Another storm system will be moving into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough of low pressure moves into the region. At the same time, low pressure may try to take shape off the East Coast and head northward. While neither of these systems look that potent for now, they could consolidate into a fairly strong storm once they move past New England early next week. Before that, it looks like they’ll bring us some rain on Sunday, possibly as early as Saturday night. The rain may continue into next Monday, and could be heavy. Windy and much cooler conditions are possible early next week behind the system, but we’ll worry about that in next week’s outlook.

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Early indications are that October will end and November will begin with below normal temperatures – a stark contrast to much of October thus far. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Fog early, then any sunshine disappears behind thickening clouds. High 66-73.

Monday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with some showers possible late at night. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Windy and mild with some showers likely. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Windy with periods of rain, possibly some thunderstorms. Low 61-68.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and winds gradually diminishing. High 63-70.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for some afternoon showers. High 57-64.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny.  High 56-63.

Saturday: A sunny start, then clouds return. Some showers are possible at night. High 60-67.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 58-65.

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 16-22, 2017

Summer in October continued on Sunday, but a cold front will bring cooler conditions in today. So, are we finally into fall weather for good? To borrow a phrase from college football analyst Lee Corso – “Not so fast my friend.”

We’ll start the week off with high pressure building in, bringing cooler conditions to the region. In fact, temperatures may be below normal today. Some locations could even see some frost Tuesday morning. Don’t be alarmed, it is October, and this does frequently occur at this time of year. Tuesday looks to be on the cool side as well. After that? The warmth returns. High pressure slides offshore, and we warm right back up with dry conditions for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

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Very little rainfall is expected during the next week across the most of the region. Image provided by Weather.us

It does look like the warm weather party will come to a crashing halt early next week, with a pattern change becoming more and more likely. A flip to below normal temperatures and more precipitation looks to be in the offing. In fact, some places could even see their first flakes of the season late this month. (Yeah, we just said that. Deal with it.) We’ll get into more detail on this in next week’s outlook. For now, enjoy the warm weather.

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Some of the longer-range Ensemble models show the potential for a little flaky white stuff away from the coastline before Halloween. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Some lingering showers across Cape Cod and SE Mass early in the day, otherwise skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast. High 54-61.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and chilly with some patchy frost. Low 35-42, but some of the normally colder locations could drop close to 30.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 42-49.

Wednesday: Sun, sun, and more sun. High 64-71.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 62-69.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 69-76.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

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What’s left of former Hurricane Ophelia will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Ireland, northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Finally, we will discuss former Hurricane Ophelia. As of early Monday morning, Ophelia has transitioned into a post-tropical storm. In other words, it’s just another low pressure system now, albeit a strong one. It’s likely going to cross Ireland and the northern UK over the next day or two. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected. While some of the media are playing the hype game, the truth is, they get storms like this all the time in the fall, winter, and spring, many of which are even stronger. The difference this time is that the storm has tropical origins, so it will likely bring in more rain than your typical North Atlantic storm moving into the UK. It’s not rare, and it’s not unusual. Plenty of former tropical cyclones have become post-tropical and crossed the Atlantic, impacting the UK in the past.

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 9-15, 2017

Who likes rain, especially heavy rain? Alright, we know that most of you don’t, but we do need some rain around here, as drought conditions are slowly starting to emerge again. However, that’s not the reason why a lot of you are hoping for rain today. Heavy rain means a rainout for the Red Sox, and thus the chance that Chris Sale pitches Game 4 instead of Rick Porcello.

Well, it looks like you’ll get your wish, but be careful what you wish for. The remains of Hurricane Nate will pass north and west of the region today, bringing us some rain and maybe a few thunderstorms, The heaviest rain will stay to our north and west, but we’ll still get a good amount of rain today, especially during the morning and again during the late afternoon and evening. There will likely be a lull around midday, but probably not enough for the Red Sox to squeeze the game in. Sure, they’ll probably open the gates and let everyone in to buy hot dogs, beer, and souvenirs for a few hours, then postpone the game until Tuesday. (Anything to make a buck!)

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Conditions right now are just abnormally dry, but we need some rain to prevent a drought from returning. Image provided by NOAA.

Tuesday will be about as perfect as an October day can be in New England. High pressure brings plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will move through late in the day, but it’ll be starved for moisture, so other than a few clouds and a wind shift, you probably won’t notice when the front moves through. You will notice it the next day when temperatures are 15-20 degrees colder and more clouds move in. Another system will slowly make its way eastward from the Midwest, bringing us some showers Wednesday night and early Thursday, but the bulk of the rainfall will likely stay to our south and west as high pressure tries to build in from the north. Yet another weak system comes through on Friday with a few more showers possible.

That brings us to the weekend. After a week with several days featuring clouds and/or rain, what would you expect to happen? Of course, we’re going to have high pressure return with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures once again. Don’t expect every weekend to be like this through the fall, but certainly enjoy them while they’re here. Before you know it, it’ll be cold and we’ll be talking about the dreaded s-word. For the record, longer-range models right now show warm weather again the following weekend.

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Warm weather comes back this weekend? The models are showing that it’s a possibility. Image provided by Weather.US

Monday: Breezy and humid with periods of rain and showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two as well. High 69-76.

Monday night: Showers taper off in the evening, followed by partial clearing overnight. Low 61-68.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and warm. High 75-82.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: Some early sun, then clouds thicken up. Showers develop at night. Much cooler, high 61-68.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two early in the day. High 58-65.

Friday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few showers. High 62-69.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Sunday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, breezy, and warm. High 71-78.

One final note to show you how abnormal the warmth and humidity are. At the time this blog post was written (4am Monday), the temperature and dewpoint at the Storm HQ World Headquarters in the City of Champions (that’s Brockton, MA for those who don’t know) were both 70 degrees. The normal low temperature for today is 42 degrees. The normal high temperature is only 64!

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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: October 2-8, 2017

October has arrived, and temperatures should be starting to get cooler. September certainly ended on a cool note and the first day of October was on the cool side as well. However, we’re going to warm back up this week, so the cool shot was short-lived.

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On average, high temperatures for early October should be in the middle to upper 60s around here. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure will be in control of the region’s weather for the next few days. Although the week will start off cool, a warming trend is expected as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front will approach the region on Thursday. The front will take its time moving through the region, but it also won’t have a lot of moisture to work with. As a result, Thursday will be another warm day, but only a chance for a few showers or maybe even a thunderstorm. The question is: how many people will notice the weather on Thursday with Red Sox/Astros Game 1 at 4pm, the Bruins season opener at the Garden against Nashville at 7pm, and the Patriots in Tampa at 8:25pm? Friday will likely be another mild day before the front finally pushes through, with cooler conditions settling in behind it for Friday night.

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Let’s go Sox! Image provided by the Boston Red Sox.

Once that front moves through, it is going to stall out south of New England. How far south it stalls will play a big role in determining Saturday’s weather, as a couple of waves of low pressure will likely ride along that front. If it stalls close to the south coast, Saturday could be cool and rather wet. If it stalls out farther to the south, Saturday may see some sunshine develop. It looks like the front moves back northward as a warm front on Sunday, with some rainfall likely. How quickly it comes back will determine our temperatures (and to a lesser extent our weather) on Sunday. If it takes its time coming through, temperatures could stay in the 50s and lower 60s all day with rain likely. If it comes through quickly, we could jump into the 70s with just some showers or even a thunderstorm. Once it does come through, it looks like the first part of next week will be warm but probably also wet. It also looks like a cooler pattern may try to develop towards the latter half of next week as well. Whether this is temporary or the true start of fall remains to be seen.

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Temperatures on Wednesday could be 10-15 degrees above normal. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

 

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 44-51, except some of the normally cooler locations could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 64-71.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and warm. High 73-80.

Thursday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 75-82.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy, chance for a few showers. High 62-69.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 65-72.

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Heavy snow is likely across portions of the West today and tomorrow, especially at the higher elevations. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

While our weather is quiet, a much different story is expected from the Plains into the Rockies. A storm system will produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains states today, with some heavy rain spreading into the Upper Midwest. Behind the system, snow is expected across much of the Intermountain West. Across the higher elevations, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet or more are possible.

 

 

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