By now you’ve probably heard, there’s a new storm in the Atlantic, and it’s named Matthew. OK, you probably knew that, because the hype machine from the media has gone into overdrive for the past few days. Why has that happened? Some of the computer forecast models have indicated that there’s a possibility that Matthew could hit the East Coast? How likely is that? We’ll delve into that shortly. First, we’ll get into what we do know.

As of 2pm EDT on Friday, Matthew was a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.The storm was centered a little less than 100 miles off the northern coast of Colombia, and was moving off towards the west-southwest at 12 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha.

It is actually pretty rare to have a storm impact the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) and northern South America. There have been a few wind gusts to near tropical storm force in Aruba and Bonaire today, but for the most part, it’s just been a breezy and cloudy day in an area that usually is sunny and warm. When Matthew crossed the island of Martinique a few nights ago, it produced sustained winds of 40 mph and a gust to 60 mph at the airport in St. Pierre, with reports of gusts of up to 89 mph on the island. There was several reports of damage across the island.

OK, that’s what we know. Here’s what we’re fairly sure about. Matthew should turn more towards the northwest and eventually north this weekend with some more strengthening possible. It may become a category 4 hurricane. Unfortunately, it is also going to pass very close to Jamaica late Sunday and early Monday. It may even make landfall on the island. Even a glancing blow will likely result in widespread damage across the island. After that, Matthew should continue northward, and it will pass very near or over extreme western Haiti or eastern Cuba before heading into the Bahamas. Some slight weakening is possible due to interaction with the land areas, but Matthew should still be a strong hurricane (Category 2 or 3) when it enters the Bahamas.

Now, the part that nobody knows with any certainty – what happens after Matthew gets into the Bahamas. This is the big question, and a lot of it has to do with what the upper-level pattern looks like. A trough of low pressure will be starting to move out of the Northeast while another one moves into the Great Plains. In between, a ridge of high pressure will be moving into the East. Exactly how quickly these features move eastward will determine which way Matthew goes.

As you can see from the images above, there are dozens of possibilities as to where Matthew can go. Based on the most recent model runs, a track through the Bahamas and then northward off the Carolinas is the most likely outcome, but there are still some models that have the storm stall in the Bahamas or even drift closer to Florida or possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Once it gets up towards the Carolinas, there are even more possibilities to consider. The storm could continue up the coast and threaten the Northeast. It could start to turn northeastward and threaten Atlantic Canada. It could head harmlessly out to sea. At least one model shows it doing nearly all of the above! This model has it head out to sea, then hook back northwestward, and head towards eastern New England and Nova Scotia/New Brunswick.

At this point, we really have to wait and see how the pattern evolves before we’ll have a better idea as to what Matthew is going to do. If it is going to impact the Northeast, the time frame would be towards next weekend.So, keep an eye on Matthew’s progress if you have plans for that time frame.

Labor Day Weekend is here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “What is Hermine going to do?” We’ll try to answer that as best as we can right now.

First, we’ll give you the facts. As of 2pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 90 miles east of Duck, North Carolina, moving toward the east at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Hermine is now a “post-tropical” storm. What does that mean? Well, to start with, it means that’s it’s no longer tropical. It’s more like a typical Nor’easter that we see throughout the fall, winter, and spring. As you can see in the satellite loop above, most of the thunderstorm activity is now well north of the center of circulation. Tropical systems contain thunderstorm activity concentrated near the center of the storm.

Despite the fact that Hermine is no longer tropical, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the East Coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Watch Hill up to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, which includes all of Cape Cod, the Islands, and the coast of Rhode Island.

So, if it’s no longer tropical, why are there tropical storm watches and warnings in effect? There are two reasons for this. The first, and simplest one, is the fact that there is a chance Hermine could re-acquire tropical characteristics as it sits over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream over the next few days. The other reason is related to Sandy. As you may recall, when Sandy slammed into New Jersey in 2012, there were no hurricane warnings in effect, despite the fact that Sandy was still a Category 1 hurricane while offshore. The reason there were not warnings was because Sandy was expected to become “post-tropical” before landfall, and the rules that the Hurricane Center had to abide by at the time did not allow them to issue watches/warnings if the system was not expected to impact the coast as a tropical system. (Yeah, we think it was stupid too.) So, they changed those rules, and this is the first test of them.

So, what does the future actually hold for Hermine? Hermine will stall out east of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday as it gets stuck under an upper-level low pressure system. It will then drift around south of Long Island for a few days. While it’s sitting over the warm water there, it could become a tropical system again (possibly even a hurricane), but that won’t last too long. Why? As it sits over the same area, it will churn up the waters, which will bring cooler water to the surface through a mechanism called “upwelling.” As this cooler water comes up, the system will lose the warm water it needs to sustain a tropical system, and then lose any tropical characteristics it may have gotten back. In other words, it’ll be “post-tropical” again.

In terms of sensible weather, Hermine is going to lay the smack down on the Mid-Atlantic states. Rough surf will pound the coast, especially in New Jersey, for several days, along with strong winds right along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected along the Mid-Atlantic coast, along with some periods of rain, though the heaviest rain should stay off shore for the most part.

What about here in New England? We’re going to escape the brunt of it. There will be some very rough seas, starting on Sunday and likely continuing through at least Wednesday. It’s probably a good idea to stay out of the water if you’re heading to the beach, as the risk for rip currents will be high. Likewise, you probably don’t want to be heading out on a boat, with seas of 10-20 feet expected. If you’re taking one of the ferries to the Vineyard, Nantucket, or Block Island, there will likely be times where they have to cancel them due to rough seas. In terms of winds, the strong winds are likely right along the South Coast and across the Cape and Islands. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or more are likely at times right through at least Tuesday. The bulk of the rain will stay to our south, but periodic showers and occasional batches of steady rain will come through at times over the next several days. The graphic above might be overdone in terms of how much rainfall we’ll get, but there will likely be some rain at times, especially the farther south you head.

Hermine likely won’t start to move out of the picture until the latter half of the week. Until then, we’ll just head to deal with clouds, periodic showers, occasionally strong winds, and rough surf for several days. In other words, it’ll feel like a typical April week, expect temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s instead of 40s and 50s.

(Note: This post was edited to reflect the fact that Hermine was upgraded to a hurricane at 3pm EDT)

We’re just about to start the Labor Day Weekend, traditionally summer’s last gasp around here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “Will Hurricane Hermine ruin my plans?” The short answer is “maybe.”

First, let’s start off with the basic facts. As of 3pm EDT, Hurricane Hermine was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, and was moving towards the north-northeast at 14 mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, and some more strengthening is possible before landfall just east of Apalachicola tonight.A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Florida from Mexico Beach to the mouth of the Suwanee River. Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for much of the remainder of the Florida Gulf Coast, as well as much of the Atlantic Coast from northeastern Florida up to North Carolina.

OK, now that we’ve got the facts spelled out, here’s what we’re fairly sure about: Hermine will likely make landfall a little east of Apalachicola, Florida tonight. This will be the 1st hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005, ending Florida’s record 11-year “hurricane drought.” Once it makes landfall it will move up across Georgia and into the Carolinas, slowly weakening while dropping heavy rainfall on the region. Flooding is almost a certainty in some areas. The center of Hermine should move back out into the Atlantic off the North Carolina coastline, possibly as far north as Norfolk, Virginia by late Saturday. Once off the coast, the storm will likely drift northward and then stall east of the Delmarva Peninsula on Sunday. This is where things get tricky.

We’ve gone over what is going on currently, and what we’re fairly sure will happen over the next 2-3 days. Now, we’ll delve into the parts that we don’t have a handle on yet. Once the storm stalls east of the Delmarva Peninsula, we have a lot of questions that just can’t be answered right now. Where does it actually stall? How long does it stall? Which way does it drift once it does stall? How strong will it be? How large will the wind field be? How large will the precipitation field be? These are all important details that have a HUGE effect on the forecast. Unfortunately, we won’t have a better idea of these details for another 24 or even 48 hours.

While we’re not expecting Hermine to be a hurricane once its off the Delmarva Peninsula, it could still be a tropical storm once it is east of the Delmarva Peninsula. More likely, it will become extratropical. What does that mean? To put it in simple terms, it will be more like a typical Nor’easter around here.

If you’ve got Labor Day Weekend plans, don’t scrap them just yet, but have a backup plan ready. The farther north your plans are, the less likely that you’ll be impacted. However, the closer you are to the South Coast or the Cape, the greater the chance that you may be dealing with gusty winds and/or rainfall. (Rough surf is a virtual lock at this point, so staying out of the water is probably a good idea).

We should be able to provide an update this weekend, once things become a little more certain.