You’ve heard us use the phrase “When in drought, leave it out” in relation to rainfall plenty of times. There is a corollary to that phrase – “Droughts end in floods”, which we’re going to use for the next few days.
Excessive rainfall is likely today into early Tuesday. Images provided by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University.
The front that brought an end to the heat Saturday night has stalled out south of New England, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it over the next day or so. This will result in periods of rain, some of it heavy at times later today into a good chunk of Tuesday, mainly south of the Mass Pike. Many of the forecast models are showing the potential for 2-4 inches of rain, with amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Pinpointing where these tropical downpours will be the heaviest is a fool’s errand, but that much rain in a short period of time, even with the ongoing drought, will result in areas of flooding. That’s why Flood Watches have been issues for much of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, as this is where the heaviest rain is expected. The question is, how much rain falls north of the Mass Pike? While there are some models that bring the heavy rain all the way into southern New Hampshire, many of them have the amounts taper off quickly north of the Pike, with little rainfall once you get into southern New Hampshire. With the cloudcover and rainfall, temperatures will be quite cool, with many places staying in the 60s, especially on Tuesday, The showers wind down Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in with gradually improving conditions on Wednesday, though temperatures will remain below normal. Very warm weather returns for Thursday as high pressure moves offshore, with some places getting back to 90. This heat will be short-lived, as another cold front moves through on Friday with some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure brings cooler and drier weather in for Saturday, with temperatures turning a bit warmer again on Sunday.
Many of the models are forecasting some very heavy rainfall, especially south of the Mass Pike. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, mostly south of the Mass Pike. High 69-76.
Monday night: Rain likely, heavy at times south of the Mass Pike. Low 57-64.
Tuesday: Rain during the morning, tapering off to showers in the afternoon. High 64-71.
Tuesday night: Showers ending during the evening, some clearing may start late at night, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 55-62.
Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82, a little cooler near the coast.
Wednesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 85-92, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Friday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 83-90.
“When in drought, leave it out”. You’ve heard us repeat this numerous times. We’re in a drought, and have been for a while. Many recent storm systems have failed to bring significant rainfall to the region. That will not be the case with the next storm.
Rainfall totals over the past 6 months are well below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and towards southern New England. With the system expected to pass close to or just south of the region, the associated warm front will also remain south of the area. This will reduce or likely eliminate the threat for severe weather. There will be some thunderstorms, but we’re just looking at periods of rain, potentially heavy at times. The rain will move in by afternoon, and continue into the evening, but likely doesn’t end until Tuesday morning or early afternoon. While most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain for at least parts of the region, they still do not agree at this point on where the heaviest rain will fall, or how much will actually fall.
Most of the models show the potential for heavy rain for at least part of the region later today and Tuesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Once the system pulls away, high pressure builds in with drier weather for Wednesday into Thursday. Another frontal system will bring in some showers and thunderstorms for Thursday night and Friday, then high pressure returns with dry and warm weather for the weekend.
Temperatures should be mostly above normal for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy with rain developing by early afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly a thunderstorm. The rain may be heavy at times. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies with showers gradually ending from west to east in the afternoon, some heavy downpours are still possible at times. High 69-76.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Low 57-64.
Thursday: Morning sun, then increasing late-day clouds. High 78-85.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers possible late at night. Low 60-67.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.
The final week of May (and meteorological Spring), will feature changeable conditions as we head through the week.
Rain should end by around midday today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Low pressure will slowly pull away from the region today, so we’ll start the day off with some rain and a few thunderstorms, but they should wind down by midday, with skies starting to clear from west to east during the afternoon and evening, salvaging some of the day for outdoor activities. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, with sunshine and warmer temperatures. Wednesday looks to be a fairly warm day ahead of a cold front with clouds moving in during the daytime. While the front may trigger a few late-day showers, there may not be a lot of moisture associated with the front, so a widespread soaking rainfall is not expected.
Wednesday looks to be a very warm day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Later Thursday and Friday look unsettled at this point. An upper-level low pressure system will drop into Atlantic Canada, with a surface low pressure system developing east of New England. This may result in plenty of clouds, cooler temperatures, and some showers, but this is far from certain at this point, as the models do not agree on how this system will develop. A second system will drop southward from Canada on Friday with even cooler temperatures and additional rain. High pressure should return for the weekend with cool temperatures, but if the system on Friday is slow to depart, clouds and rain could linger into early Saturday.
Wil rain linger into early Saturday? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Note: Hurricane Season begins next Monday, June 1. As always, we’ll have an extensive blog post with a review of last year’s season, what to expect this season, and some statistics detailing how the region is extremely overdue for a hurricane to come calling. Expect to see that published at some point later this week.
Monday: Showers likely through midday, skies start to clear out by late afternoon. High 67-74.
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 76-83, a little cooler near the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower. High 79-86, a little cooler near the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Thursday: Partly sunny, cooler. High 65-72.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 47-54.
Friday: More clouds than sun with a better chance for showers, especially later in the day and at night. High 62-69.
Saturday: Chance for a few showers early, then becoming partly sunny. High 60-67.
We’re not going to sugarcoat this – the 2nd half of the week is going to suck.
Despite a mild Monday, temperatures will average several degrees below normal this week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The week starts off with a nice Monday with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and temperatures that are close to or a little above where we should be in late April. Tuesday will be fairly nice as well, but we’ll see clouds start to move in during the afternoon. With high pressure moving into Atlantic Canada and an offshore low pressure system starting to move back towards the area we’ll see winds shift into the east, allowing cooler air to move back in from the ocean. The onshore flow will likely result in some drizzle, fog, and a few showers accompanying the cool temperatures on Wednesday, especially across eastern Massachusetts. Low pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast later Wednesday, bringing some steadier and heavier rain in for Wednesday night and Thursday. Before that system can pull away, and upper-level low pressure system will develop across the Northeast, capturing the surface low, and allowing it to meander around for the end of the week and the weekend. While it won’t be raining the entire time, we can expect lots of clouds cool temperatures and occasional showers and drizzle from Friday into Sunday (and possibly into early next week as well). We also need to watch for the potential for another system to develop and pass offshore, though how close it gets to the coast is up in the air at this point. It’s not all bad news though, as we do need the rain to help put a dent in the ongoing drought.
There is the potential for some decent rainfall amounts later this week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 61-68, a little cooler near the coast.
Monday night: Mostly clear. Low 35-42.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 55-62, except 47-54 near the coast.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 36-43.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers or some drizzle across eastern Massachusetts. High 54-61, except 46-53 near the coast.
Wednesday night: Cloudy with light rain developing. Low 41-48.
Thursday: Periods of rain. High 49-56.
Thursday night: Rain tapers off to showers. Low 39-46.
Friday: More clouds than sunshine with a few showers around. High 50-57.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 49-56.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, another shower or two possible. High 51-58.
The forecast for the weekend is pretty straightforward…..or is it?
Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
An upper level low pressure system over Atlantic Canada will keep us on the cool side through the weekend while high pressure builds in at the surface. Low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes will be deflected south and west of New England, spreading some clouds in, but the rain shield associated the system looks like it won’t make it past Connecticut. At least, that’s what some of our more reliable models are showing. However, not all of the models see it that way, and there’s where things get complicated. Some of the models bring the storm south of the region, but close enough to bring the rain shield into the South Coast and Cape Cod. Others slow the system down, then have it redevelop as a new upper level low pressure area develops just offshore, resulting in some steadier and heavier rain for much of eastern New England Sunday and Monday. With all of this in mind, we also are reminded of an old meteorological saying – “When in drought, leave it out”. What this means is that droughts tend to feed on themselves – when it’s dry, it stays dry, so leave the rain out of the forecast. We’ve been in a drought for a while now, so with all of this in mind, we are going to lean toward a drier forecast for now, but are well aware that it could change for the latter half of the weekend. We’ll also note that many models are showing the potential for a very wet period for the middle to latter half of next week, which we’ll take a deeper dive into in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
Most of the models keep us dry this weekend, but not all of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies with a few clouds around. Low 33-40.
Friday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 50-57, a little cooler along the coast.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 32-39.
Saturday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds. High 48-55, a little cooler along the coast.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.
Sunday: More clouds than sunshine, chance for a few showers near the South Coast. High 53-60, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers near the South Coast. Low 37-44.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers near the South Coast. High 54-61, a little cooler along the coast.
Temperatures will be quite mild for half the week, and quite chilly for half the week. In between, some much needed rain is on the way.
Parts of the region could see an inch or so of rainfall this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The week starts off with high pressure moving off the East Coast, with southwest winds around the high bringing milder weather in, though the South Coast and Cape Cod will remain cooler as a southwest wind is a seabreeze off the still-chilly Atlantic. Tuesday could be a bit trickier. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southward, bringing some showers into the region. How far south the front gets before stalling out will have a big impact on the temperature forecast. South of the front, temperatures will likely get into 60s (cooler near the South Coast), while north of the front, temperatures will only be in the 40s. This boundary will lift back northward at night.
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be highly dependent on the location of a backdoor cold front.
Wednesday will likely be a mild day across the region, but low pressure crossing northern New England will drag a cold front through, with another round of showers and possibly some thunderstorms ahead of the front during the afternoon. Much cooler air settles in behind the front for Wednesday night and Thursday, but the front will stall out to our south and a wave of low pressure will ride along it, bringing in some additional rainfall. Friday has the potential to be another tricky day, and it’s also the Red Sox home opener, so a lot of people will be paying attention to this forecast. Another wave of low pressure will ride along the front late Friday and Friday night, with some more showers, but for now, it looks like much of the day will stay dry. The question is in the temperature forecast. Some models have the wave passing farther north, bringing the front back through as a warm front, some keep it farther south, with chilly weather remaining in place. Some additional showers possible on Saturday, then Sunday looks similar to Friday, with another system possibly dragging the front northward, allowing warmer air to briefly return before showers and another cold front move in.
Opening Day looks cloudy, and potentially mild, but dry, for now at least. Image provided by Major League Baseball.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy. High 60-67, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for some late-night showers. Low 43-50.
Tuesday: More clouds than sun with some showers likely, especially in the morning. High 58-65, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod, temperatures may drop during the afternoon, especially along the coast and into parts of northeastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire..
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, chance for a shower or two. Low 42-49, temperatures start to rise after midnight.
Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few sunny breaks early, breezy, showers developing in the afternoon, possibly a thunderstorm. High 67-74, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with more showers, mainly during the evening. Low 34-41.
Thursday: Lots of clouds, chance for a few showers, much cooler. High 39-46.
Thursday night: Cloudy with some showers possible. Low 31-38.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 51-58.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 50-57.
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance for more showers. High 57-64.
The week is going to start off with a potent storm system heading our way.
A couple of batches of rain are likely today and tonight, maybe even some thunderstorms. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
The low pressure system bringing blizzard conditions to the Great Lakes will impact us over the next 36 hours, but not with blizzard conditions. A warm front extending eastward from the system will cross the region today, with some rain ahead of it through the morning hours. Once the front moves through, gusty southerly winds will bring milder air back in, but the rain will taper off to some widely scattered showers. However, steadier and heavier rain will return by evening as a cold front begins to approach from the west. A line of thunderstorms may accompany the front tonight, though any severe weather will likely be well to our south. Rain ends by daybreak Tuesday as the front pushes offshore, with gusty west winds behind the front bringing much colder air back in. While we’ll start to clear out in the morning, a secondary cold front will bring some clouds back in during the afternoon, with a few stray flurries possible.
Temperatures will get into the 60s across much of the region Monday evening ahead of the cold front. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure builds in with dry and chilly conditions for Wednesday, but as it slides off to the east, temperatures will start to moderate for Thursday and Friday. Another system may move in for the weekend, but there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm, with some rain or snow possible, depending on the eventual evolution of the system. We should have more clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The models all have different ideas about a potential storm next weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain during the morning, tapering off to occasional showers during the afternoon. High 55-62.
Monday night: Windy with rain redeveloping, possibly heavy at times, some thunderstorms are possible. Rain ends before daybreak. Low 34-41.
Tuesday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, chance for a few late-day flurries. Temperatures hold steady or drop during the daytime.
An active weather pattern will provide us with a little bit of everything this week.
Much of the region could see a pretty decent amount of precipitation this week. Image provided by weathermodels.com
The week starts off quiet with high pressure in control giving us a rather chilly day, but that won’t last too long. A wavy frontal system will start to lift northward on Tuesday as a wave of low pressure rides along it. With cold air in place, we’ll see snow moving in Tuesday afternoon, but it will quickly change to rain south of the Mass Pike as warmer air moves in. North of the Pike, the colder air will take a little longer to scour out, but warmer air will move in aloft, so we’ll likely see a period of freezing rain Tuesday evening before a change to plain rain at night before the precipitation comes to an end. Wednesday looks like a calmer day, and likely a bit milder, with some sunshine. That front will lift northward as a warm front on Thursday, bringing us a mild day with more rain. While this will help melt some of the glacier that we still have in place, it may also cause some problems, as the ground remains frozen, so that water will have nowhere to go. While we’re not going to have widespread flooding, there could be some issues, especially along some of the rivers as the ice breaks up and starts to flow downstream, with ice jams possibly resulting in some flooding issues. The front drops southward as a backdoor cold front late Thursday and Friday, with another wave of low pressure moving along it. As the colder air moves back in, we could see a period of sleet or freezing rain across the interior once again. The front may lift back northward as a warm front on Saturday, before a stronger cold front moves in from the northwest on Sunday.
Tuesday’s afternoon commute could be messy, especially north and west of Boston. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 21-28.
Monday night: Clear and cold, clouds start to drift in late at night. Low 8-15.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly cloudy, light snow developing in the afternoon, quickly changing to rain south of the Mass Pike. High 34-41.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with rain likely south of the Mass Pike, snow changing to freezing rain and possibly plain rain north of the Mass Pike, ending before daybreak. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or slowly rise overnight.
Wednesday: Clouds give way to some sunshine, chance for a few showers. High 43-50, cooler along the coast and across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night. Low 28-35.
Thursday: Cloudy with some showers likely. High 43-50.
Thursday night: Rain likely, possibly changing to sleet or freezing rain across southern New Hampshire and interior northern Massachusetts. Low 29-36.
Friday: Cloudy with some areas of freezing drizzle or sleet across the interior, plain drizzle elsewhere. High 35-42.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds with more showers, possibly some freezing rain well inland in the morning. High 47-54.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. High 51-58, cooler across Cape Cod.
The blizzard rages on today, but there are still two more chances for snow this week.
There’s still a lot of snow left today, but not the outrageous amounts some places were forecasting. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Intensifying low pressure passes south and east of New England today with heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding likely. The snow will be heavy through the morning, then start to taper off in the afternoon, ending during the evening. We’re looking at 10-18 inches across much of the region, a little less across southern New Hampshire, on the order of 6-10 inches. Winds will gust to 30-50 mph inland, and 50 to perhaps 70 mph along the coast, with significant blowing and drifting snow likely. Temperatures will slowly fall during the day, so the snow will become a little fluffier, allowing the blowing and drifting to become more of an issue. Winds will start to diminish later today as the storm pulls away, but it will remain breezy into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in with some sunshine returning on Tuesday, but it won’t last too long. Clouds come right back at night as an Alberta Clipper heads our way. Some light snow will develop towards daybreak on Wednesday, ending by early afternoon. Temperatures may be marginally warm enough for the snow to mix with or change to rain south of the Mass Pike. Overall, with it being a weak and fast-moving storm, we’re not expecting more than 1-2 inches of snow anywhere.
A little bit of light snow could make the Wednesday morning commute interesting. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We’ll clear out at night and to start the day Thursday, but then another system quickly heads our way for Thursday night and early Friday. There’s a bit more uncertainty with this one – some models have a change to rain with the storm passing to the north, some keep the storm farther south with less rain, but a shift southward where the snow falls. Some models show light accumulations, some heavier. For now, it doesn’t look like a big storm, but we’ll see how things progress as the week goes on. High pressure brings in drier weather for later Friday and the weekend.
There’s some uncertainty with the system for Thursday night. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Windy with snow, heavy at times through the morning, tapering off during the afternoon. High 26-33, temperatures start to drop by late morning.
Monday night: Snow showers end during the evening, some late-night clearing, still breezy. Low 15-22.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 24-31.
Tuesday night: Clouds stream in, snow showers possible towards daybreak. Low 5-12, temperatures start to rise after midnight.
Wednesday: Light snow or snow showers, possibly mixed with rain south of the Mass Pike, ending in the afternoon. Accumulations of a coating to 2 inches possible. High 32-39.
Wednesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 19-26.
Thursday: Morning sun, then increasing clouds, snow possible by evening. High 33-40.
Thursday night: Cloudy with some snow or rain likely. Low 22-29.
Friday: Snow or rain ends early, skies start to clear out in the afternoon. High 34-41.
Before we get to the bad news (i.e. the rest of this blog post), we’d like to remind you that Red Sox Opening Day is just 33 days away.
A variety of Watches and Warnings are in effect across the region. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA
Unless you’ve been unconscious for the past several days, you may have heard that we’ve got a storm on our way that the media has been going off the deep end about. As a result, we at Storm HQ are issuing an Extreme Hype Warning. When an Extreme Hype Warning has been issued, that means you’ll see blanket coverage from the network stations around here, hourly updates even when they go to regular programming, and of course, obligatory live shots from (take your pick):
The side of an Interstate
Logan Airport
A local DPW salt pile
A beach showing the rough surf and coastal flooding
A Dunkin Donuts where they are talking to a plow operator
All of the above
You’ll also get network reports about how the snow is creating chaos in New York City, and in some cases, but likely not this one, how it put Washington at a standstill, and possibly how it dumped heavy snow on the Midwest. The latter is debatable, because anything west of the Appalachians is considered “flyover country” to the media around here.
This storm will have major to extreme impact on the region. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
Having said that, let’s get to the details. Low pressure will move off the Carolina coastline early Sunday, then head northeastward while rapidly strengthening later Sunday into Monday, passing south and east of Nantucket late Monday. This storm will have 3 main impacts on our region: Strong winds, coastal flooding, and heavy snow. We’ll address those in order.
The system will impact our area for roughly 24 hours. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.
Our low pressure system, which isn’t that strong at the moment (central pressure around 1012mb – 29.88″), will quickly strengthen late Sunday and Monday, with its lowest pressure dropping to around or even under 970mb (28.64″), which is equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane. There’s a term that sounds scary (and is overused by the media) to describe this called “bombogenesis”. All that means is that the central pressure of the storm dropped by at least 24mb over a 24-hour span – the storm “bombed out”. As the pressure drops in the storm, the gradient between it and high pressure to the north increases, which is what generates wind. The larger the difference in pressure over a smaller area, the tighter the gradient and thus the stronger the wind. The winds will start to pick up Sunday afternoon, but the strong winds are likely Sunday night into Monday morning. We’re looking at sustained winds of 20-30 mph inland, and 30-40 mph along the coast, especially from Boston southward, with sustained winds of 40-50 mph possibly across parts of Cape Cod and the South Coast. In terms of wind gusts, we’re looking at 40 to 50 mph north and west of Boston, 50-70 mph south of Boston, and perhaps to hurricane force on Cape Cod and the Islands. This will also certainly result in trees and powerlines down along with other wind damage, so be prepared for the power to go out.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely across most of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Coastal flooding is our next concern, and the wind is the primary driver of that. Tides are not astronomically high (we lucked out there!), but persistent east to northeasterly winds will continue push the ocean towards east-facing shorelines. As a result, some minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding is expected with the high tides by Monday morning and Monday afternoon along the coast of eastern Massachusetts, especially the usually vulnerable locations. As winds shift into the north behind the storm later Monday, the threat will diminish across eastern Massachusetts, but will increase across places with north-facing coastline, like Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is a concern with this storm. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA
This brings us to the part most of you want to hear about – snow. There may be a few flurries around during the afternoon along the coast as northeast winds start to increase and pick up a little moisture from the ocean, but the steady snow associated with the storm itself will move in from southwest to northeast as early as 5pm in parts of southern Rhode Island, and as late as 10pm or so into southern New Hampshire. The intensity will quickly pick up, with moderate to occasionally heavy snow overnight. Right now the heaviest snow, possibly falling at a rate of 1-3 inches per hour, looks to be during what would normally be the morning commute, 5-10am. After that, it will taper off a little, but light to occasionally moderate snow will continue through the afternoon, likely ending from west to east between 6 and 8pm.
When you factor in the wind, we’ll have blizzard conditions, especially near the coast, where Blizzard Warnings have been issued. The amount of snow a storm produces has nothing to do with whether it is a blizzard or not. In fact, you can have Blizzard conditions without any snow falling at all! To qualify as a blizzard, you must have sustained winds of 35 mph or frequent gusts to 35 mph or more AND visibility of 1/4 mile or less for 3 consecutive hours. We could very well get this combination, especially along the coast, Monday morning. Travel is not recommended on Monday at all, at least until conditions start to improve late in the day.
You don’t need falling snow to have a blizzard. Image provided by the National Weather Service.
So, how much snow are we expecting? There are plenty of people out there more than willing to share model forecast maps showing widespread 20-30 inch amounts, but we’re not buying that. As a colleague of ours pointed out online earlier, this will be a heavy, wet snow, so it won’t pile up as quickly (but will be a huge pain to shovel!), plus, there probably won’t be enough precipitation to generate that much snow. Could it happen? Sure, it could, but right now, we’re not expecting. What we are expecting is widespread 10-18″ across most of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with 8-14″ across southern New Hampshire. As is usually the case, there will be some isolated heavier amounts in these regions where bands of heavy snow stick around a little longer.
A foot or more is expected across much of the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While you’re digging out from this storm, other systems may produce a little more snow Wednesday and again Friday. We’ll detail those in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
Storm HQ 