Weekly Outlook: January 23-29, 2023

A fairly active weather pattern is on deck for this week, with several bouts of unsettled weather expected.

We’re starting the week off on a stormy note with low pressure passing south of the region. Colder air will work its way in behind the storm today, allowing the rain/snow line to move southward as the day progresses. So, even places that are still raining this morning will likely see some snow before the day is out and the storm pulls away. Areas south of the Mass Pike will likely see an inch or less of accumulation, with another 1-3 inches north of the Pike, and possibly a little more than that across southern New Hampshire. Everything ends this evening, then high pressure briefly builds in tomorrow with drier conditions.

Much of the region will only pickup another inch or two of snow today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

However, another storm will quickly follow for Wednesday. With some cold air in place, this one will likely start as snow across the region Wednesday afternoon, making for a rather messy afternoon commute. However, with the low passing west of us, and a secondary low pressure system developing right overhead, warmer air will move in, resulting in a change to rain Wednesday evening and night, ending Thursday morning. As that system pulls away, breezy and cooler conditions settle in late Thursday into Friday, but a cold front will approach the region on Saturday. That front may produce some snow showers Saturday afternoon and evening before it pushes offshore. Wel clear out behind it and turn colder, but yet another system quickly follows late Sunday, with some rain or snow showers possible late in the day ahead of a warm front.

Most of the models show snow falling for the Wednesday afternoon commute. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Breezy with snow likely north of the Mass Pike, rain changing to snow south of the Pike. High 34-41 early, temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Monday night: Snow ending in the evening, followed by clearing, windy. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Morning clouds, some afternoon sun, breezy. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Clear through the evening, clouds return after midnight. Low 17-24.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, changing to rain from south to north during the evening. High 32-39.

Thursday: Windy with periods of rain, ending in the afternoon. High 39-46 north and west of I-495, 47-54 south and east.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High 32-39.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few snow showers possible, clearing late in the day. High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy, snow or rain showers possible late in the day. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: December 23-26, 2022

There used to be a waterpark in Orlando named Wet n’ Wild. That could also describe our forecast for the next 24 hours.

A rather potent storm system is moving toward the Great Lakes, producing blizzard conditions across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Behind the storm, arctic air is plunging southward from Canada. How cold is this airmass? When the front goes through, some places have dropped 30-40 degrees in an hour. In Denver, the temperature dropped to -24 this morning, just 1 degree off of their all-time record low for December. Up in the Northwest Territories of Canada, RabbitKettle Lake dropped to -64 this morning. That’s actual temperature, not wind chill. The airmass will moderate significantly before reaching us, but some colder air is definitely on the way.

Rain will move in this evening, and could be heavy at times overnight into Friday morning. Winds will start to pick up tonight, and should really be cranking Friday morning and into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-30 mph are likely, with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible, especially along the coast and in the hills. With strong winds and astronomical high tides, some coastal flooding is expected, mainly with the morning high tide on Friday. The rain may taper off for a while around midday Friday, but the cold front moves in from the afternoon. Unlike most cold fronts, this one will be moving from southwest to northeast, and the colder air will come in on southwest winds, which normally brings in milder air to our area. Temperatures will rapidly drop once the front moves through, and while they won’t drop 30-40 degrees in an hour, a drop of 20-30 degrees over a couple of hours is certainly possible. A line of showers will accompany the front, and as the colder air moves in, these showers could change to snow before ending in the evening. As temperatures plunge, any surfaces that are still wet will rapidly freeze up during the evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher on Friday, especially along the coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As the storm pulls away on Christmas Eve, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast, keeping plenty of clouds around. Winds will remain gusty as the storm system meanders around in Quebec. With much colder air in place, and gusty southwest winds moving across the relatively mild ocean, some ocean-effect snow showers are possible across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann as well. Some accumulations are possible across Cape Cod. High pressure builds in for Christmas Day and Monday with drier and chilly conditions, with winds gradually dying down during the day on Christmas.

Some minor accumulations of snow are possible across Cape Cod and the South Coast this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Thursday night: Rain developing, becoming heavy at times overnight, becoming windy. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Friday: Rain tapers off to showers, more rain possible late in the day, possibly changing to snow toward evening, very windy. High 50-57 in the morning, temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, snow showers end in the evening for most, but may continue near the South Coast and Cape Cod, still windy and turning much colder. Low 9-16.

Christmas Eve: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, more snow showers possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 18-25.

Saturday night: Becoming partly cloudy, some lingering snow showers possible across Cape Cod, still breezy. Low 9-16.

Christmas Day: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy again. High 21-28.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 14-21.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 26-33.

Weekly Outlook: December 19-25, 2022

Christmas Week will start and end dry, but the latter half of the week looks rather stormy.

Whatever you celebrate, we hope you enjoy it! Image provided by Adobe.

We start the week off with high pressure trying to build in while low pressure continues to meander around near Atlantic Canada. The result is dry weather through Wednesday as the high will be the dominant feature, but the gradient between the high and the offshore low will result in breezy conditions today and Tuesday. Temperatures will be fairly close to where they should be in the latter half of December.

Wind chills will be in the teens when many of you head out the door Tuesday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The end of the week is where things get rather complicated. Most of the models are trying to spin up a very strong storm and send it towards the Great Lakes. As a result, you’ve no doubt seen plenty of forecasts out there for a wind-swept mild rain on Friday. The people making these forecasts are taking the lazy way out, believing everything the models are saying, and not looking too deeply at the situation. That’s not how we do things here. Yes, the precipitation will be mostly likely be in the form of rain with this storm, and temperatures will probably be milder than normal. But a wind-swept mild rain? Far from a lock. In fact, we’re not sure that will materialize for a good chunk of the region. Allow us to explain:

First, the upper-level pieces of energy that will create the storm are still over water, in areas where there is little data, so the models are just guessing at this point. That will change in the next 24 hours or so as those upper-level disturbances move into Alaska and California respectively, so we’ll start to get a better idea of what will happen. Second, this storm may be in two parts, one late Thursday into early Friday and the second late Friday and Friday night, with a bit of a lull possible during the day on Friday. The first piece of energy, with the southern jet stream, likely stays weak and scoots along ahead of the main system. This may help to kick off a weak area of low pressure near the East Coast on Thursday, which could bring in some rain, but it may start a snow or a wintry mix across the interior before changing over to rain. As the northern stream energy moves into the Plains States, it will carve out a rather deep trough of low pressure at the upper-levels, which in turn will generate a rather potent storm system in the nation’s mid-section, which likely heads toward the Great Lakes. This is where our uncertainty starts to increase. Right now, the models keep those two streams separate. What happens if the southern stream storm is a little slower than the models forecast, and they do merge (or “phase”, as we usually call it)? Well, that could result in a stronger storm in the Midwest, possibly even a little farther west than the models show now. It also would lessen the likelihood of that rain and/or mix moving in here later Thursday. What about if that trough in the Plains States isn’t as sharp as the models predict? Well, then the storm ends up farther east, which has different implications here. When storms end up as far west the models currently show, it’s easy to look at the maps and say “it’ll be windy and warm east of the storm,” and assume that is the case all the way to the coast, but that’s the lazy way out.

The members of the GFS Ensemble all show a potent low near the Great Lakes on Saturday and a secondary low near or off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

In reality, when storms head up across the central and western Great Lakes, what usually happens is a weak wave of low pressure forms ahead of the main storm somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states. What that does, is it pinches off the warm air at the surface. Yes, we’ll still have strong southerly winds pumping in lots of moisture and warmer air aloft, but at the surface, you end up with east or northeast winds, keeping the cooler air locked in under what we call an inversion. Normally, temperatures decrease with height as you head up into the atmosphere. When it’s warmer as you go higher, the temperature profile is “inverted”. This also prevents those strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. So, you may get windy and mild conditions near the South Coast, but places like the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire could stay stuck in the upper 30s and lower 40s with little wind, but some rain, drizzle, and fog. We’ve seen this happen countless times, and wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what ends up happening around here on Friday. Eventually, as the storm moves into southeastern Canada, it will send a strong cold front in. Some rain, possibly heavy is likely ahead of that front, it the gusty winds associated with the front will eventually mix out that inversion, so temperatures could briefly spike well into the 50s or even lower 60s as the milder air moves in for a brief period ahead of, or even behind the front.

Friday’s high temperatures likely occur at night, then temperatures turn sharply colder on Saturday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

For Christmas Eve and Christmas Day we’ll have high pressure trying to build in with clearing, breezy, and colder conditions.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 22-29.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 18-25.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 33-40.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, rain developing late in the day, possibly starting as some snow or freezing rain across the interior. Rain may be heavy at night. High 39-46.

Friday: Cloudy, breezy along the coast, rain likely, possibly heavy at times, especially early and again late in the day. Rain may mix with or change to wet snow before ending at night. High 51-58 during the evening, but temperatures may stay in the upper 30s and 40s for much of the afternoon across the interior.

Christmas Eve: Becoming partly sunny and breezy with a few flurries possible, especially early. High 30-37 early, temperatures drop a little during the afternoon.

Christmas Day: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 25-32.

Weekend Outlook: December 16-19, 2022

A rather complex storm system is heading this way, but the forecast itself isn’t too complex for most of us.

The storm system that’s been producing blizzard conditions in the Plains and severe weather in the South over the last few days will head towards the Great Lakes tonight as a secondary area of low pressure takes shape over the Mid-Atlantic states. That system will pass close to or over southeastern Massachusetts Friday night. Ahead of it, we’ll have rain moving into the region tonight. The rain may start as some wet snow across the hills of Worcester County and southwestern New Hampshire, possibly even in parts of south-central New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, but gusty easterly winds will quickly bring milder air in off the still relatively mild Atlantic, quickly changing any snow over to rain at the lower elevations. Friday will be a windy, rainy, and cool day across the region. Wind may gust as high as 40-50 mph near the shoreline, but with tides astronomically low, coastal flooding is not a concern. As the storm passes by Friday night, winds will shift from the east to the northeast and eventually north and northwest, bringing cooler air back in. The precipitation will be moving out, but the rain will likely change over to snow before it ends around midday across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. As for accumulations, we’re looking at an inch or less across the Merrimack Valley and the New Hampshire Seacoast, an inch or possibly two across southern New Hampshire (including Nashua and Manchester), and 3-5 inches up towards Concord. Across the hills of northern Worcester County and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire totals of 6-12 inches or more are likely.

The heaviest snow will be confined to the hills north and west of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once the storm moves out, temperatures will slowly drop during the day on Saturday, then skies start to clear out at night. An upper-level low pressure system moves across the region on Sunday with some additional clouds and possibly a few flurries. High pressure then builds in for Monday with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions.

Sunday’s temperatures will be a little below normal for mid-December, Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Rain developing, possibly starting as a brief period of wet snow across southern New Hampshire, becoming breezy. Low 33-40 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Friday: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. High 39-46.

Friday night: Rain may change back to snow across southern New Hampshire, breezy. Low 30-37.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with rain or snow showers ending by midday. Some sunny breaks may develop late. High 37-44 in the morning, temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a few flurries, breezy. High 33-40.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: November 11-14, 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole is crossing Florida and the Dakotas are in the midst of a blizzard. Both of these systems will have an impact on our weather over the next few days.

High pressure continues to push offshore tonight resulting in mild weather continuing into Saturday. The system producing the blizzard in the Dakotas will head into southern Canada, but a strong cold front trails that storm and it will march eastward over the next couple of days. At the same time, what’s left of Nicole will head up the Appalachians, eventually becoming absorbed by the front. We’ll see clouds start to stream in ahead of these systems tonight, but any rainfall likely holds off until late Friday afternoon, resulting in a cloudy but mild Veteran’s Day, with temperatures approaching 70 in many locations. A period of steady and potentially heavy rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning, but the heaviest of the rain should stay to our north and west. Given that this air is of tropical origins, some rumbles of thunder are possible. The rain will also be accompanied by some gusty winds. The front moves through around midday and the rain ends, with skies starting to clear out in the afternoon. It will be another warm day, with temperatures near or above 70 once again. Clouds hang around for Saturday night and a good portion of Sunday as an upper-level trough crosses the region. Could there be a stray shower or two early Sunday? It’s possible, but they’ll be few and far between. We’ll clear out later Sunday and into Monday as high pressure builds in with much cooler air. In fact, temperatures look to be below normal for a good chunk of next week. There’s even, dare we say it, the potential for a few flakes around here with a system toward mid-week. We’ll touch on that more in our Weekly Outlook early Monday.

Temperatures Sunday morning will be 20-25 degrees cooler than they were at the same time Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 47-54.

Friday: Becoming cloudy, showers developing late in the day. High 64-71.

Friday night: Windy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, some thunder is also possible. Low 57-64 during the evening, temperatures may rise a few degrees overnight.

Saturday: Rain tapers off and ends during the morning, some sunshine develops in the afternoon, breezy. High 66-73.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a late-night shower. Low 41-48.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a shower possible in the morning, skies start to clear out during the afternoon, much cooler. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Clear and chilly. Low 29-36.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, but quite cool. High 41-48.

Weekly Outlook: November 7-13, 2022

Fall is a time for change, and we’ll have some changes coming this week.

Our unseasonably warm air remains in place for one more day today. A few showers are possible this morning as a cold front crosses the region, then we’ll have a sunny a warm afternoon. The colder air lags a bit behind the front, but it will start to move in late in the day. High pressure then builds inf for Tuesday and Wednesday with sunshine and much cooler temperatures, though they’ll actually be fairly close to normal for early November. As the high slides off to the east, well warm back up for Thursday and Friday. While it won’t be as warm as it was over the weekend, it’ll still be rather mild for the first half of November. After that, the changes really start.

More record highs are possible across the Northeast today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

An area of low pressure is slowly organizing east of the Bahamas. It will likely become a tropical depression soon (possibly even before you read this). It will likely become a tropical storm or the next day or so, and could even become a hurricane. While it may seem unusual for a hurricane this late in the year, Hurricane Season doesn’t end until November 30 for a reason. This system will likely head westward, passing close to or over the northern Bahamas before heading for the east coast of central Florida. Eventually, the storm will turn northward as a deepening trough of low pressure moves toward the East Coast. When this turn occurs is still a bit of a question, and while it will have a significant impact for Florida and the Southeast, for us up here, it doesn’t make too much of a difference (more on that in a bit). A turn before reaching Florida would obviously spare the state from the worst of the impact, delaying the turn until it crosses the state and moves into the Gulf increases the threat to western Florida and possibly the Panhandle. The most likely scenario though is a northward turn shortly after landfall, bringing it up Florida and into the Southeast. This brings heavy rain and strong winds to much of the state, while storm surge also an issue for the east coast of Florida.

Ensemble forecasts for the track of a disturbance north of Puerto Rico. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

Once it makes that turn, it will turn more toward the northeast, likely moving back offshore off the coast of Georgia, and passing close to or just off the Carolina coastline. After that it will head up the coast, passing south and east of New England on Saturday. It won’t be tropical any more at this point, but it will still be a potent nor’easter. As a result, we’ll have some rain, likely heavy, from Friday night into late Saturday. Gusty winds are also likely near the coast. Some of the models are trying to bring a tremendous amount of rain into eastern New England, and given the system’s tropical roots, this is certainly a possibility. However, we’ve seen time and time again the models forecast some very heavy rain several days in advance, and slowly back off those totals as the system gets closer.

Most of the models show some heavy rain for the end of the week, but differ on how heavy. Images provided by Pivoral Weather.

As the system moves away, a strong cold front will move through. Behind it, we’ll clear out on Sunday, but much cooler air will settle into the region with high pressure building in. In fact, a much cooler pattern is shaping up for next week, with temperatures likely below normal for a good chunk of the week.

Most of next week looks to feature below normal temperatures across the Northeast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild with a shower possibly early, then skies clear out in the afternoon. High 71-78.

Monday night: Clear skies (Perfect for viewing the total lunar eclipse late at night). Low 37-44.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, much cooler. High 48-55.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Wednesday: More sunshine. High 47-54.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, milder. High 59-66.

Friday: Increasing and thickening clouds, showers possible late in the day, steady rain develops at night. High 63-70.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, ending at night. High 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and much cooler. High 46-53.

Weekend Outlook: October 14-17, 2022

We’ve got some unsettled weather to start and end the weekend, but in between, it should be rather nice.

The drought continues across the region, but we’ll put another big dent in it this weekend. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

A cold front is approaching the region, and we’ll have some rain and gusty winds ahead of it tonight into Friday. Some of the heavy could be heavy, especially from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, where flood watches are in effect. The rain tapers off to showers Friday morning, ending from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Skies clear out Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and mild temperatures. Sunday also looks mild, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next system moving toward the region. That system will bring in showers and cooler weather for Monday into Tuesday. In fact, much of next week is looking cool at this point.

Between tonight and Monday, we’re expecting quite a bit of rain around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Breezy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 57-64.

Friday: Rain tapers off to showers, ending during the afternoon. Winds diminish in the morning. High 65-72.

Friday night: Any lingering showers end during the evening, then skies clear out. Low 44-51.

Saturday: Sunny and mild. High 62-69.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 45-52.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 63-70.

Sunday night: Becoming cloudy. Low 43-50.

Monday: Scattered showers. High 56-63.

Weekly Outlook: September 5-11, 2022

Some much-needed rain is on the way, but unfortunately much of it will fall on a holiday.

Despite last week’s rain, much of the region remains in severe or extreme drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start the week off with a cold front stalling out across the region. North of the front we’ll have some showers today with temperatures likely staying in the 60s. Closer to the South Coast, temperatures may be in the 70s with less rain at first, but still plenty of clouds. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing some additional showers or a period of steady rain in late today and tonight. By Tuesday, the front starts to push off to the south, and the shower activity winds down during the afternoon. How much rain we’ll see is still a bit of question, even as it has already started across parts of the area. Some models are still showing the potential for 3-6 inches of rain (or more) across the region, while others show less. Either way, we need all the rain we can get to help put a dent into the ongoing drought and to help refill the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the region. With most places likely to see at least a period of heavy rain, Flood Watches have been issued for much of the region through later Tuesday.

Some models show the potential for very heavy rain across the region today and tomorrow. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Skies start to clear out Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in for Wednesday right into the weekend, with a return to dry weather. After a couple of chilly day Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will return to near to above normal levels for the rest of the week and the weekend, with many days featuring highs getting back into the 80s across parts of the area once again.

Normal high temperatures for early September are in the middle to upper 70s across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Occasional showers. High 64-71 north of the Mass Pike, 71-78 south of the Pike.

Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, some of the rain could be heavy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cool with showers gradually ending during the afternoon. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Overcast with a few lingering showers during the evening, then some late night clearing may develop. Low 53-60.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 68-75.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 76-83.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 77-84.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 77-84.

Weekend Outlook: March 11-14, 2022

While the clocks “spring ahead” with Daylight Saving Time beginning this weekend, we’ll still be dealing with winter at times.

High pressure remains in control into Friday with generally dry weather. We’ll be on the chilly side tonight, but temperatures should rebound nicely on Friday, though we’ll see clouds streaming in and thickening up late in the day. This is in advance of a developing low pressure system that will impact us on Saturday. Earlier in the week, it looked like this system would pass west of us, with strong southerly winds bringing in very mild air and rainfall. Well, the latest indications are that the storm will pass right across southern New England, or possibly even south of it. This means that it won’t be as windy or warm as we were thinking earlier, but we’re not looking at a major snowstorm, it’ll still be too mild. We’ll have rain developing by daybreak Saturday, and it could be heavy at times during the day. It may still be quite breezy along the South Coast and across Cape Cod if the system does move across southern New England. Once it passes by during the afternoon it will continue to intensify, with strong northwest winds behind it ushering much colder air back in by late in the day. This will likely result in the rain changing to snow before it ends in the evening. How quickly it changes over and how quickly it moves out will determine whether the snow will accumulate. Right now, the best odds for any accumulation will be from central Massachusetts into southwestern and central New Hampshire. Farther north and west, this will be quite a storm for ski country, which is good news for them.

This storm will be good news for ski country. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Behind the storm, we’ll clear out for Saturday night and Sunday with high pressure building in. It will be breezy and quite chilly, but this won’t last long. Winds will subside Sunday afternoon, and as the high moves off to the east, temperatures will moderate nicely on Monday.

Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Friday: Some morning sun, then increasing and thickening clouds. High 46-53.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, rain develops before daybreak. Low 31-38.

Saturday: Rain, heavy at times, possibly changing to snow late in the day, becoming windy. High 45-52, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Temperatures will quickly drop during the afternoon

Saturday night: Windy with rain or snow showers ending in the evening, clearing late at night. Low 16-23.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Monday: Mostly sunny, some clouds may pop up in the afternoon. High 46-53.

Weekend Outlook: February 25-28, 2022

As we head into the final days of February, yesterday’s record highs are just a memory and a snowstorm now gets all of our attention.

Temperatures at midday were 30-40 degrees colder than they were at this time yesterday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will head toward the Ohio Valley tonight, then redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing south of New England on Friday. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak on Friday, and it will quickly become heavy. Warmer air will start to move in Friday morning, first aloft, then at the surface. This will allow for a change to sleet, and along the South Coast and Cape Cod, eventually rain. The big question mark remains how far north does that sleet progress, since it will have a significant impact on snow accumulations? At this point, we’re thinking it gets to at least the Mass Pike, possibly Route 2. Is there a chance it makes it into southern New Hampshire? Yes, there is. By early afternoon, precipitation will lighten up, and as the storm starts to pull away, everything will go back to snow from northwest to southeast, with the snow ending during the evening.

How much snow do we expect? We really haven’t changed our thinking too much from yesterday:

Cape Cod: 2-5″
South Coast: 3-6″
Southeastern MA/RI: 5-9″
Metro Boston/MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/North Shore: 7-11″
Central and Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 6-10″

If the sleet doesn’t mix in, accumulations will be toward the higher end of the ranges, especially locations north of the Mass Pike. The longer that sleet occurs, the more likely accumulations will be toward the lower end of the ranges.

The ECMWF is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Skies clear out late Friday night and Saturday as the storm pulls away and high pressure builds in. Another weak system moves through on Sunday with some clouds and possibly a snow shower or two. High pressure builds back in for Monday with some rather chilly weather for the final day of February.

Monday’s temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with snow developing 3-5am. Low 19-26.

Friday: Breezy with snow, heavy at times in the morning, mixing with or changing to sleet south of Route 2, and changing to rain across the South Coast. Precipitation lightens up during the afternoon before changing back to snow showers. High 27-34.

Friday night: Snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 7-14.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 27-34.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 13-20.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a snow shower. High 33-40.

Sunday night: Becoming clear. Low 6-13.

Monday: Sunny and colder. High 20-27.