Snowy Saturday Morning

Yes, snow is still on the way, and this is an update to our forecast, but it really hasn’t changed that much.

Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley today, passing south of New England early on Saturday. We’ll have some cold air in place, so many of us will have some snow Saturday morning, but don’t worry, it won’t be a lot, and it won’t hang around for too long.

The precipitation will move in around midnight, and it will likely start as rain for most of us, with temperatures still in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, it will quickly change over to snow as temperatures drop into the middle 30s. It looks like there may be a burst of moderate to heavy snow overnight, especially along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. A change back to rain is expected towards daybreak, except in the hills from northern Rhode Island into Worcester County and the Monadnocks in southwestern New Hampshire.

The GFS model shows the progression of snow and rain across the region. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

As we mentioned yesterday, it’s awfully tough to get accumulating snow in mid-April for a variety of reasons, but there are some things that will help this time. First of all, most of the snow will fall at night. Once the sun comes up, the sun angle is similar to late August, so once we get past about 7-8am, even if there are still flakes falling, there won’t be any more accumulation. Second of all, temperatures will be close to freezing. Third, the snow may come down at a decent clip, which will help bring down a little bit of colder air from aloft. Working against accumulating snow is the fact that the ground is warm. Any accumulations will be mainly confined to grassy surfaces, as the pavement is considerably warmer. There may be a little slush on paved surfaces, but not much. Also, we’re not going to have a large window of time for accumulating snow. As we said, the precipitation will start as rain around midnight before flipping to snow. Once it does start snowing, it will take a little time to start accumulating, due to the wet/warm ground. That will take until 1-2am, and by 7am, the daylight will help put an end to accumulations. So, we’ve really only got about 5-6 hours of accumulating snow out of this system.

Temperatures likely won’t drop below freezing across most of the region tonight. Image provided by WeatherBell.

So, how much do we expect now? Our thinking really hasn’t changed too much from yesterday. The jackpot is still going to be in the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks, where 3-5″ is expected, possibly some heavier amounts. For the rest of us, a general 1-3″ from southern New Hampshire into the Merrimack Valley and Metro West, as well as the Seacoast of New Hampshire. The immediate Boston area will probably see around 1 inch. The biggest question mark for us is the area south of the Mass Pike into northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. There will be some heavier precipitation here, but temperatures may also be a bit milder. Right now, we’re thinking 1-2″ for places like Woonsocket, Brockton, and Taunton, but it could end up a bit more if there is that heavier burst of snowfall. It also could end up less if temperatures stay in the upper 30s instead of dropping into the middle 30s.

The GFS model remains closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The rest of Saturday will feature rain showers and temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which will help melt away some of the snow from the morning. Skies will clear out at night, but clouds will come back in Sunday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. The good news is that Sunday will see temperatures well into the 50s and lower 60s, so that should take care of the rest of the snow. That next system? It’ll stay well offshore, but may produce a few rain showers on Monday. Is this the last time we’ll see snow until the fall/winter? Possibly. History says it can snow as late as mid-May here, so we can’t completely rule it out. In yesterday’s blog, we mentioned the possibility of flakes around April 28-29, based on the ECMWF Ensemble and its 51 members. Well, the newest run of that model no longer has that threat, but a significant portion of the ensemble members have at least a trace of snow for parts of the area around May 2, with a little bit of wet snow mixed in during a rainstorm. So, there’s a good chance tonight is our last accumulating snow for several months, but it might not be the last time we see some snowflakes. That same model also shows high temperatures near or above 70 on a regular basis starting around the middle of May.

Weekly Outlook: April 13-19, 2020

We’ve got quite the storm coming in to start the week, but it’s not the only one that may impact us before the week is out.

The high-resolution NAM model depicts the progression of rain across the region with some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Low pressure will head through the Great Lakes and into Ontario today, bringing some very adverse weather into the region. We’ll have periods of rain, possibly heavy at times throughout the day, with some thunderstorms possible as well. The biggest threat will be the wind. High Wind Warnings have been posted for nearly all of Southern New England, with Wind Advisories for southern portions of New Hampshire and Maine. Sustained southerly winds of 25-35 mph are likely, with gusts to 50 mph or more common, especially in southern New England. This would be enough to take down some trees and power lines, but it could end up being worse. Not far above the surface, winds will be screaming out of the south at 90-100 mph. We’ll have some relatively stable air below that, keeping those winds aloft from getting down to the surface for the most part. However, some of the heavier downpours, especially in thunderstorms, will help bring some of those strong winds down during the afternoon, which could result in wind gusts of 60-70 mph or more, especially across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Wind gusts could exceed 60 mph across much of the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A cold front moves through during the evening, bringing an end to the rain, and allowing winds to rapidly diminish at night as they shift into the west. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with some sunshine, but it will remain breezy as Monday’s storm moves into northern Quebec. Clouds come right back in Tuesday night as low pressure rides along a front stalled out south of New England. It looks like this system will remain fairly far to the south, with the best chance for any shower activity across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Another weak disturbance may bring in a few showers on Thursday. High pressure then builds in for Friday and the weekend, but we’ll have to keep our eyes on a couple of systems that look like they’ll stay south of the region right now.

Monday: Windy with rain, heavy at times, possibly some thunderstorms. High 56-63.

Monday night: Rain ending in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy with diminishing winds. Low 37-44.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 51-58.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers possible along the South Coast and across Cape Cod. High 45-52.

Thursday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a few showers. High 43-50.

Friday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

More Strong Winds and Rain for Monday

A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.

Low pressure will move out of the Plains states today and into the Great Lakes later Sunday into early Monday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

A severe weather outbreak is possible across a large portion of the South on Easter Sunday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.

The severe weather threat shifts to the East Coast on Monday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.

Heavy snow is likely from Wisconsin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Sunday into early Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.

Precipitation has been below normal across much of the Northeast during the first 100 days of 2020. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Here in the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so we need all the rain we can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.

High Wind Watches are in effect for parts of the Northeast, and these will likely expand over the next 12-24 hours. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.

Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher could be widespread Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Conditions should improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.

A Little Bit of Everything on Thursday

An approaching storm system will make for quite the interesting Thursday across New England.

The low pressure system that will generate severe weather across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys this afternoon and evening will head northeastward tonight, and pass right over New England on Thursday. It will produce a variety of weather across our six-state region, depending on where you’re located. Across southern New England, we’ll have heavy rain, possibly some thunderstorms, and strong winds. Across northern New England, this could turn out to be quite a snowstorm.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the system over the next couple of days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Starting with southern New England, we’ll see showes developing during the morning, becoming a steady rain during the afternoon. With warmer air moving at the surface, thunderstorms may develop as the system moves in. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds, and hail, as there will be plenty of cold air aloft with an upper-level low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Southern New England under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

The rain and thunderstorms should come to an end by late afternoon, but that’s only half of the threat. A cold front will cross the region, with strong winds likely behind it. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are likely. These winds may diminish a bit overnight, but will likely pick back up on Friday as the storm continues to intensify across eastern Canada. That upper-level low pressure area will also be overhead, so we’ll have plenty of clouds and a few showers popping up. With the cold air aloft, some of those showers could produce some small hail or graupel.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph in places Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

While we are dealing with strong winds and thunderstorms, it’ll be a completely different story across northern New England. Temperatures will be much cooler across Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, with much of the precipitation falling in the form of snow, especially in the mountains. Some of the snow will be quite heavy, with a foot or more possible, especially across Maine and northern New Hampshire. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for parts of the region. The snow will also be accompanied by strong winds, gusts to 40 mph or more, which may create blizzard conditions at times. There’s already little travel going on due to the pandemic, but there should be even less over the next few days.

Parts of northern New England, especially Maine and northern New Hampshire, could pick up more than a foot of snow Thursday into Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The snow should wind down on Friday, but with the upper-level low in place, snow showers may continue. Some of those snow showers may spread into the Berkshires as colder air works its way in. Some wet snow is even possible into the Worcester Hills and Monadnocks.

High pressure will build in for the weekend with drier weather, but our next system looks to move in on Monday. That one looks like a rain-maker right now, and it might produce a decent amount of rainfall. We’ve been a bit dry this winter, so we need all the rain we can get right now to avoid slipping into a drought.

Messy Thursday Coming Up

A pair of storm systems are heading our way, but for most of us, snow will be the least of our concerns. Your Thursday morning commute will be a mess however.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast away from the coast, with Winter Storm Watches up north. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will ride along a frontal system that is stalled out south of New England tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure is in place to the north, bringing some colder air into the area. As the precipitation shield ahead of the low moves in after midnight, it will fall in the form of snow across most of the area, except along the South Coast, where it will be mainly rain with some sleet mixed in. This snow won’t last too long though, as warmer air will be moving in aloft. This will change the snow to sleet and then freezing rain from south to north as the morning progresses. We’re not expecting much snow accumulation, but the combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will make a mess out of the morning commute.

The first part of the storm could produce a decent amount of sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The warmer air eventually pushes in at the surface by early afternoon for most of us, changing everything to plain rain. Across southern New Hampshire, things could get tricky. Temperatures may not get much above freezing, or even above freezing at all, which would keep the freezing rain going, resulting in very slippery conditions. The precipitation should taper off by late afternoon, with only some drizzle or freezing drizzle through the evening and the first part of the overnight.

While we deal with a wintry mix, severe weather is expected across much of the Southeast on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

This brings us to the 2nd part of our double whammy. The storm that is producing severe weather across the Gulf Coast today will head towards Southern New England on Friday. Rain will redevelop after daybreak, and it could be heavy for a while during the morning. This will have some impact on the Friday morning commute, but not to the extent of the wintry mix on Thursday. Across southern New Hampshire, we may have some more significant problems though. We may still have cold air in place at the surface, which could lead to more freezing rain and sleet as the heavier precipitation moves back in. If the precipitation is heavier enough, it could drag some of the warmer air aloft down to the surface, changing everything to plain rain, but the Friday morning commute could be a mess along I-93 and US-3 north of the Massachusetts border.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, maybe even heavier, are possible across the region between now and Friday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As the low moves across Southern New England, places south of the center of the low, mainly Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, will see temperatures jump into the 40s or even the 50s. However, as the low passes by, colder air will quickly move in both at the surface and aloft. This will allow the precipitation to change to snow from northwest to southeast. The cold air will be moving in as the precipitation comes to an end though, which will limit any accumulations.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of our double-barreled storm and the variety of precipitation it will produce. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

If you’re a skier, you’ll be happy, as this storm will be mainly snow and sleet up north, with significant accumulations possible in ski country.

Many locations up north could see 6-12 inches of snow or more between now and Saturday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The pattern we’re in will be active for a while, with storm systems coming in every 2-3 days for the next week or two. Some of these will contain wintry precipitation, it is February after all.

Snow Makes a Return

We’ve got a significant snowstorm on the way to the region for Saturday night. Hang on, we’re being told that even though the last week or so has felt like January in North Carolina, we’re still in Massachusetts, not North Carolina. So, let’s start over. We’ve got some snow on the way for Saturday night, but it shouldn’t be a big deal by New England standards.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisoies are in effect for much of the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

A cold and very dry airmass is in place across New England to start Saturday, thanks to a high pressure area moving across Northern New England. Temperatures are starting the day in the single numbers and teens, with dewpoints near or below zero. Meanwhile, a storm system will be moving out of the Great Lakes and heading for Northern New England later today. That will be out weather-maker for tonight and early Sunday.

Saturday is starting on a very chilly note across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll see high clouds start streaming in by midday, and they’ll thcken up during the afternoon. It’ll take some time for the air to moisten up, but it will eventually, and snow will start falling right around dinnertime for most of us, a little earlier to the west. This will be a fast-moving storm, with the snow actually tapering off and ending around midnight. It looks like any rain/snow line will be confined to southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. After midnight, a little freezing drizzle or some flurries are possible as the system starts to pull away, but the accumulating snow should be all done.

Our storm quickly moves across the region this evening and tonight. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The snow could fall at a decent clip during the evening hours, with some places possibly seeing an inch per hour. So, if you’tre going to be out and about, take it slow and drive carefully. How much snow are we expecting?

Cape Cod/South Coast: 1-3″
Southeastern Mass/I-95 corridor (Boston/Providence): 2-4″
MetroWest/Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 3-5″
Southern NH/Southern Maine: 3-6″
Central NH: 4-8″

The High-Resolution NAM model is probably closest to our thinking on snowfall with this system. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind the storm, Sunday will be a nice day, with developing sunshine and temperatures in the 30s to near 40, which will help melt some of the new snow. You’d better get out and clean up the driveway though, because everything is going to freeze solid Sunday night as another arctic airmass settles into the region. Temperatures may not get back above freezing until Wednesday afternoon, possibly not until Thursday, but a warmup is expected for the end of the week.

Another Messy Monday

As we head into the home stretch of 2019, it looks like the year is going to end with a wintry mess.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect across interior portions of New England and eastern New York. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The storm system that produced heavy snow in the Plains and strong to severe thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley on Saturday will head into the Great Lakes on Sunday, then just mill around in the Midwest for Monday and early Tuesday. Clouds will stream into our area later Sunday ahead of the system, but as is usually the case with a storm that far west, the warmer air that we usually find on the east side of a storm system won’t make it in here, at least at the surface (that becomes important later on).

Sunday will be a mild day (by late December standards) as high pressure moves out, but temperatures should drop below freezing during the evening. We’ll see precipitation start to break out before midnight across much of the area. While there will still be cold air in place at the surface, warmer air will be starting to move in aloft. So, we should see sleet and some freezing rain developing, with some snowflakes, mainly from central and southern New Hampshire northward. Some accumulations are possible, especially from the Seacoast up into the Lakes Region, but only a few inches at most before a change to sleet occurs. Along the South Coast, this will be mainly rain with temperatures above freezing.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm system and how the precipitation changes from sleet to freezing rain, to rain across the region. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits,

With a frontal system stalled out south of New England, we’ll have generally east to northeast winds on Monday. This will allow parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (mainly south and east of Interstate 95), to warm above freezing as somewhat milder air moves in off the ocean. Across inland areas, it’ll be a much different story.

This graphic shows the difference in how you get snow vs sleet vs freezing rain. Image provided by NOAA.

Cold air will remain in place for most of the day on Monday and into Monday night. Meanwhile, a few thousand feet above the ground, warmer air will be moving in. This will mean sleet at first, but as that warmer air layer grows thicker, the sleet should transition over to freezing rain. When that transition occurs is still a bit of a question mark.

NAM model forecast for temperatures at 700mb (about 10000 feet) for midday Monday. Temperatures will be above freezing across most of our region that high up, melting any high-level snowflakes falling into that part of the atmosphere. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Some models are showing the potential for significant amounts of sleet from interior eastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, with significant ice accretion from freezing rain across the Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and the Berkshires. No matter what happens, travel will be very slippery across the interior on Monday,

The High-Resolution NAM model is forecasting a LOT of skeet across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Monday night, a secondary area of low pressure should develop south of Long Island, and it will head northeast, moving across Cape Cod early Tuesday, then into the Gulf of Maine. As it moves close to the area, it should help force the warm air farther inland, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing across most of the area. However, once it moves into the Gulf of Maine, colder air will settle in behind it, both at the surface and aloft, changing everything back to snow showers before the precipitation winds down Tuesday morning.

Significant ice accretion could result in major issues including tree and power line damage across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll update this forecast as well as a look at New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Messy Tuesday, Frigid Thursday

The Winter Solstice is Saturday, but winter will certainly make it’s presence felt over the next few days.

The low pressure system that produced severe weather across the South on Monday will head northeastward, impacting our area on Tuesday. The storm will be moving fairly quickly, and it doesn’t have a lot of cold air to work with, so we’re not expecting a big snowstorm. That doesn’t mean it won’t cause any problems.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for most of the region. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow will develop around midnight across parts of Connecticut and Southern Rhode Island, gradually spreading northward across the rest of the region before daybreak. The snow should quickly change to rain after daybreak across the South Coast and Cape Cod. As warmer air moves in aloft, a change to sleet and freezing rain will start to take place across the interior, with plain rain along the coast as milder air moves in off the still relatively mild ocean. Right now, it looks like the mixing may get as far north as the Merrimack Valley during the afternoon. North of there, precipitation should stay all snow. The precipitation will lighten up during the afternoon, but won’t completely end until the evening or first part of the overnight.

The morning and evening commute will both be impacted by this storm, but the greater impacts will certainly be during the morning commute. Not only could icing be a problem, especially in parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island, we could be looking at a band of moderate to heavy snow along and south of the Mass Pike. With temperatures expected to drop below freezing at night, many roads could ice back up, so untreated surfaces could become slick, especially in areas that changed over to rain during the afternoon.

Icing could become a significant problem across parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island on Tuesday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for how much snow to expect, we haven’t changed our thinking much from our earlier forecast.

South Coast/Cape Cod: Less than 1″
Southeastern Massachusetts (including the I-95 corridor): 1-2″
MetroWest/North Shore: 1-3″
Merrimack Valley: 2-4″
Central + Southern New Hampshire/NH Seacoast: 3-6″

The High Resolution NAM model is probably closest to our expectations for snowfall. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Behind this system, we’ve got to pay attention to an arctic cold front that will move across the region late Wednesday. It could produce some snow showers or squalls as it moves through. These won’t impact everyone, but in places they do, visibility could rapidly drop, and a quick half an inch to an inch of snow could fall.

Wind chills will likely drop below zero across most of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels,com

Behind that front, some of the coldest air so far this season will settle in for Thursday. Wind chills will be below zero during the morning hours, and actual temperatures may not make it out of the teens during the afternoon. Friday will see temperatures start to moderate a bit, but it will still remain quite chilly, even by December standards.

Weekly Outlook: December 16-22, 2019

We’ve got another week coming up with just about everything Mother Nature has to offer. Well, not quite everything, since we won’t have a warm day this week. To make up for it, we’ll have at least one day that is extremely cold. How’s that for a trade off?

The week starts off with high pressure in control. That means we’ll have some sunshine, less wind, and chilly temperatures today. The sunshine will not last long though, as clouds quickly move in ahead of our next system. That storm will move from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states, passing south of New England on Tuesday. That’s about the only part of the storm that isn’t complicated.

Snow will develop across much of the region before daybreak on Tuesday. Yes, that means your morning commute on Tuesday will be even worse than normal. The snow should quickly change to rain along the South Coast. Away from the coast is where the problems start. Warmer air will move in aloft, with a change to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually plain rain expected to work its way northward on Tuesday. How quickly it moves northward, and how far north that changeover gets are still up in the air. Obviously, this has a major impact on how much snow accumulation we can expect. The other problem is, how long do some areas stay sleet or freezing rain, as this will have a significant impact on road conditions.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the the precipitation and changeover line with the next storm system. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

So, how much snow can we expect before the changeover? Obviously, this is still a low-confidence forecast, despite the fact that it’s only a little more than a day away. Here’s what we’re thinking for now:

South Coast/Cape Cod: Little to no accumulation
Southeastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island (South and East of I-95): A coating to 2 inches.
Northern Rhode Island/MetroWest/North Shore/Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 1-3″
Southern NH (Nashua-Manchester): 2-4″
Central NH (Concord-Lebanon): 4-7″

We’ll try to do an updated blog post late Monday, once we get a little more clarity on some of the details.

The GFS model is probably the closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts right now. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

So, everything winds down Tuesday evening, and then things improve on Wednesday, right? Not so much. A strong cold front will move across the region during the afternoon. This front may produce some snow showers or possibly snow squalls as it moves through during the afternoon and evening. Behind the front, some much colder air settles in for Wednesday night and Thursday. Now, it won’t be as cold as it was in the Dakotas and Minnesota, where it stayed below zero all day Saturday and Sunday (Can someone please explain why people choose to live in North Dakota?), but many parts of our area could stay below 20 all day on Thursday. When you fact in the wind, it will feel like it’s below zero, especially during the morning.

Heading out before daybreak Thursday? Bundle up, because wind chills will likely be below zero across the region, Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Friday with dry weather, but it shouldn’t be as cold as Thursday. This brings us to the weekend. This is where things get questionable again. You may have heard some chatter online about a big snowstorm this weekend. Well, it’s a possibility, but then again, it’s also possible that the Patriots defense won’t give up a single point for the rest of the season. Most of the models have been signalling that there will be a potent storm system developing off the East Coast this weekend. Every now and then, one of the runs puts that storm right off of Cape Cod and shows the potential for a blizzard, sending all of the Facebook Forecasters into a frenzy. Of course, these same models have also shown the same storm moving off of Florida and then eastward across the Bahamas instead. Will there be a strong storm? Probably. Will it impact us? Probably not. However, one thing that may happen, is a weak system moving eastward bringing in a period of light snow sometime either late Saturday or Sunday. Given where the storm forms, it’s not really an Alberta Clipper, calling it a Dakota Dasher would probably be more accurate.

Nearly every run of the GFS over the past 5 days has had a strong storm near the East Coast this weekend. However, the placement and strength of the storm has varied on every run. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

If you’re really looking ahead, right now Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look dry and seasonably chilly.

Monday: Some sunshine early, then clouds thicken up. High 30-37.

Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing after midnight. Low 23-30.

Tuesday: Snow, changing to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain from south to north. Areas north of the Mass Pike may never go to plain rain. High 27-34 north and west of Interstate 95, 34-41 south and east of Interstate 95.

Tuesday night: Precipitation ends in the evening, then skies clear out late at night. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Morning sunshine, clouds return in the afternoon with some snow showers or squalls possible late in the day, becoming windy at night. High 30-37.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and cold. High 17-24.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 22-29.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance for some light snow or snow showers late in the day and at night. High 29-36.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, especially in the morning. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: December 9-15, 2019

Given a choice, would you prefer cold weather or warm weather? What about a choice between rain, snow, or dry weather? Well, you’re going to get ALL of these this week!

Temperatures could reach 60 across parts of the area on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week with low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and then eventually up the St. Lawrence Valley. With low pressure passing to our north and west, we’ll be on the warm side, with rain expected, mainly in two waves. The first one will come in today, with rain developing this morning, and continuing into tonight, when it cold be locally heavy. The warm air should move in south of Boston fairly quickly, but it may take until tonight to get into the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire.

Warm air comes in today, and is quickly pushed out by cold air late Tuesday into Wednesday. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a bit of a lull tomorrow morning, but a cold front will approach later in the day, with rain coming back ahead of that front. We’ll still be on the mild side, that is until the front comes through. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the front late Tuesday and Tuesday night but the precipitation may linger, so we will likely see rain changing to snow Tuesday night.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm with 2 waves of rain followed by some snow. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

On Wednesday, a little disturbance will move across the region, bringing us some additional light snow, mainly in the morning. There’s still a bit of uncertainty with this, but plan on the morning commute being impacted. We’re probably only looking at a few inches, but all it really takes to screw up the morning commute is a few flakes at all. High pressure builds in late in the day and into Thursday with drier and much colder weather.

A few inches of snow could really mess up the Wednesday morning rush hour. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

By Friday, temperatures start to moderate again as the high slides offshore. It’ll still be chilly (it is December after all), but not quite as cold as Thursday. The weekend looks even milder once again, but that’s because we’ll have another storm system passing to our north and west, so we’re looking at another round of rain, possibly heavy once again.

Saturday could end up quite mild once again, but wet as well. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with periods of rain and showers. High 49-56.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times, tapering off late at night. Temperatures hold steady or possibly rise a few degrees.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers redeveloping late in the day. High 53-60, but temperatures start to quickly drop from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with rain changing to snow during the evening. Low 26-33.

Wednesday: Cloudy with light snow ending around midday. Skies clear out at night. Temperatures hold steady or drop a few degrees during the day.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, but cold. High 24-31.

Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 32-39.

Saturday: Cloudy, breezy, and milder with rain likely. High 46-53.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few showers. High 42-49.