Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 26-December 2, 2018

It’s going to rain again. No, we’re not kidding. Mother Nature has apparently decided that we need more rain. A lot of it in fact. Yes, really. So keep your umbrellas handy, you’ll need them more than once this week.  Better than keeping the shovels ready, right?

Autumn

With less than a week to go, the fall has been among the 3 wettest on record for much of southern and southeastern New England. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

We start the week off with, you guessed it – rain. Low pressure will head into the eastern Great Lakes today. This is the same system that produced blizzard conditions from the Rockies across the Plains and into the Chicago area over the weekend. We’ll be on the warm side of it, so we just get rain. A lot of rain, but still, just rain. Unless of course, you’re in the Berkshire, or the Lakes Region of New Hampshire (or maybe interior southern Maine). The heaviest rain is expected from late this afternoon into tonight, just in time to make your Monday afternoon commute even more miserable. We may also have some gusty winds accompanying the rain, especially along the coastline.

hires_tprecip_boston_61

Much of the region may receive another 1-2 inches of rain over the next day or two. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The rain winds down late Monday night, and everything improves on Tuesday, right? Not quite. An upper-level low pressure area will slowly move across the region during Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep plenty of clouds around, though a few sunny breaks are possible at times. We’ll still have some pop-up showers at times, but since it’ll be turning colder, some of those showers could contain some wet snow.

GFS 50-STATES USA undefined undefined 108

The GFS model is forecasting the region to be cloud-free Friday morning, except possibly on the Outer Cape. Will it actually happen? We’ll find out. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure finally builds in for Thursday and Friday, which means you can put the umbrellas away for a few days and actually use your sunglasses! That’s right, the sun will return! Oh, it’ll still be chilly, it is the end of November after all. The clouds come back in late Friday as a weak storm system moves toward the area. It’ll give us a few rain or snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. That system moves out quickly, but another one quickly follows that will be more potent. In fact, it will behave similarly to today’s storm. We’ll have rain moving in for Sunday, possibly heavy. We need more rain, right? Again, would you rather have more rain or snow instead? That’s what we thought. Longer-range models indicate that the stormy pattern will likely continue into next week. Eventually it’ll be cold enough that one of these storms will be snow. Which one? We can’t say for sure at this point, but you know it’s coming at some point.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain developing, possibly heavy in the afternoon. High 40-47.

Monday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly heavy in the evening, tapering off overnight. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, chance for a shower or two. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks at times, a few rain or snow showers are also possible. High 36-43.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. Some rain or snow showers are possible at night. High 36-43.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers ending early, then rain redevelops overnight. High 38-45.

Sunday:  Cloudy with periods of rain. High 43-50, possibly warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 19-25, 2018

Well, now that we’ve had our first snow of the year, who’s ready for more? Yup, there’s snow on the way for parts of the region. After that, everyone can expect some frozen turkey for Thanksgiving. Let’s get right to the details.

We start the week off with a fairly benign system moving across the region. Any rain or snow showers will end towards midday. The clouds will remain in place as another system will quickly follow. This system will be a little more potent tonight into Tuesday. It will also be a lot more complicated. Precipitation will redevelop around midnight. If you live north and west of 495, the precipitation will likely be in the form of snow. For the rest of us, it’ll start as rain. The precipitation will continue into the morning, then by late morning, the rain/snow line will start to sag southward towards the Boston area. Everything should wind down by early afternoon. Snow accumulations will range from a dusting in the Boston area, to a couple of inches north and west of Boston, to 3-5 inches from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire.

nam_3hr_snow_acc_boston_21

The NAM model is closes to our thinking in terms of snowfall om Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to Wednesday. An arctic cold front will cross the region. This front may be accompanied by some snow showers or squalls during the afternoon hours. Behind the front, we’re looking at the coldest air so far this fall for Thanksgiving Day. Low temperatures in the teens, possibly even some single numbers in the cold spots, may set new record lows. If you’re heading out to a high school football game, you’d better bundle up, since wind chills will be in the single numbers or below zero. We’ll have plenty of sunshine during the afternoon, but it won’t help that much, as high temperatures will be stuck in the 20s for most of us. Thursday night will also be quite cold, so keep that in mind if you’re going to wait outside for Black Friday sales.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI Wind Chill Temperature 84

Bundle up if you’re heading out early Thanksgiving morning. Wind chills will be near or below zero. Image provided by weathermodels.com

Don’t worry, the cold shot will be brief as we’ll see temperatures start to moderate for Friday and Saturday as high pressure slides offshore.  The next storm system moves in for Saturday night and Sunday. Unlike the last couple, this one should be mostly rain. In fact, it might be a lot of rain. But, at least it’ll be rain, not snow, right?

qpf_048h.us_ne

At least one model is forecasting some excessive rainfall next week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with some snow or rain showers during the morning. High 38-45, except 46-53 across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Monday night: Rain redeveloping inside I-495, snow north and west. Low 30-37.

Tuesday: Rain changing to snow, ending late in the day. Accumulations less than 1″ in Metro Boston, 1-3″ north and west of Boston, 2-4″ in the Merrimack Valley and the NH Seacoast, and 3-5″ in southern New Hampshire. High 33-40 early, warmer across southeastern Massachusetts. Temperatures slowly drop during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, becoming breezy. Some snow showers or squalls are possible late in the day. High 33-40.

Thanksgiving: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. High 18-25.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 25-32.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, rain develops at night. High 40-47.

Sunday: Breezy with rain, possibly heavy. High 45-52.

Standard
Heavy Rain/Snow, Winter Weather

Ready or Not, Snow is on the Way

You’ve been dreading this day for months. Snow is in the forecast. Winter has arrived, and there’s not much you can do about it.

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh1-42

Snow will develop this evening, but change to rain across most of the region by daybreak. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

High pressure is moving out of the region at midday after providing us with a chilly morning. Low pressure is starting to move northward from the Carolinas, and the clouds have already streamed in ahead of it. With that cold air still in place, as the moisture from the storm moves in, we’ll have snow developing late this afternoon and this evening across the area. Right along the coast, the precipitation may start off as rain, as water temperatures are still relatively warm.

As winds become easterly across the region, that warmer air will gradually push farther inland both at the surface and aloft. As a result, we’ll see the snow change to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain from south to north overnight. How quickly that warmer air moves in, especially aloft, will determine how much snow falls. More sleet and freezing rain would cut down on snow amounts, but also created some more hazardous driving conditions overnight, especially north and west of Boston.

By morning, we should be all rain for much of the region, though from central New Hampshire northward, it will still be fairly wintry. The rain may be heavy at times through the morning, which will probably wash away most of the snow that falls this evening. So, you probably won’t need the shovels or the snow brushes when you head out to work or school in the morning. Everything winds down around midday, then gusty northwest winds behind the storm help clear things out late in the day.

So, how much can we expect? Here’s our current thinking:

MA/RI coast/Cape Cod: Less than 1″
Interior E Mass/RI: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 2-4″
Interior Southern NH (Manchester/Concord): 2-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

snku_acc.us_ne

The NAM model is closest to our thinking for the current storm, perhaps a little too high with snowfall across eastern Massachusetts. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Another weak system will come through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This will produce some snow or rain showers, but won’t be a big deal at all. Winter’s here, so you’d better get used to it.

 

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 12-18, 2018

It’s coming. The day you’ve been dreading for a while. For some of us, that day will happen this week. That’s right, the first snowflakes of the season could occur within the next 7 days.

60dPNormNRCC

Rainfall has been well above normal across the region for a few months now. Of course, we’ve got more on the way! Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a bright but chilly note with high pressure in control. We’ll have some sunshine today, but clouds move in this afternoon as low pressure starts to move towards the region. This system will bring in another shot of rain, possibly heavy on Tuesday, because we haven’t had enough rain yet this fall. The rain may start as some wet snow in parts of central and southern New Hampshire, but for the majority of us, this will be a rain event. The rain will continue for much of the day, tapering off around dinner time, but it’s the evening and overnight hours that we’re actually concerned about.

As the storm pulls away Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will usher some of the coolest air so far this fall into the region. Temperatures will drop rather quickly Tuesday night, so any roads that are still wet could start to ice up during the evening, mainly from the Merrimack Valley northward. So, if you’re heading out Tuesday evening, be careful and pay a little more attention to the roads you’re on. Skies clear out Tuesday night as high pressure builds in, setting up Wednesday with sunshine along with windy and cold conditions. Winds will diminish late in the day, which means that Wednesday night will be quite chilly with clear skies and light winds setting up a good night for radiational cooling.

GFS 50-STATES USA Mass & CT & RI Wind Chill Temperature 75

Heading out to dinner Wednesday evening? Better find the winter clothes. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s. Image provided by weathermodels.com.

Thursday will be a lot like today. We’ll start off with sunshine and chilly conditions, but clouds will start to move om ahead of another storm system. While this storm will likely bring another round of locally heavy rain in Thursday night and Friday, it may not be all rain. we’ll be starting off cooler than today. The precipitation may start as snow, even into the Boston area, but a change to rain is expected. Some accumulations are possible before the changeover, especially across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The rain ends on Friday, then high pressure builds in for the weekend with breezy and cold conditions once again. don’t be surprised if a few flurries develop as an upper-level low pressure system crosses the region.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh72-120

You know what the blue color means. Most of you don’t like it. But, it’s getting to be that time of year. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Sunny and chilly to start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with rain developing after midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow in southern New Hampshire. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times through early afternoon, tapering off and ending late in the day. Becoming breezy. High 45-52, warmer across southeastern Massachusetts, southern Rhode Island, and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Clearing and windy. Low 24-31.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, windy, and colder. Winds diminish late in the day. High 31-38.

Thursday: Sunny and cold early, clouds move back in during the afternoon. Snow develops at night, changing to rain before daybreak from south to north. High 33-40.

Friday: Rain, possibly heavy at times, ending in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers. High 40-47.

Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a snow flurry. High 30-37.

Standard
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: November 5-11, 2018

Yup, we’ve got some November Rain in the forecast, so that seemed liked an appropriate intro to this week’s update. We’ve also got Election Day tomorrow, so you know what that means – we’ll finally get regular annoying commercials back on TV Wednesday instead of all of the political ones! Oh yeah, and make sure you get out and vote. Or don’t. It’s your choice. We’re going to stay out of politics here, because this is a weather blog. So, without further delay, let’s get to the forecast.

The week starts off with an area of low pressure passing south of the region. It will give us plenty of clouds today, along with some showers during the afternoon, and maybe some steadier rain at night, but all-in-all, this system isn’t that big of a deal. However, the system right behind it, will have a bit more of an impact. It will move into the Great Lakes Tuesday before heading into southern Canada. It will bring in some steadier and heavier rain on Tuesday, so make sure you elect to bring an umbrella with you that day. It will drag a cold front through late in the day, which will bring an end to the rain. The system will also bring in some milder conditions, at least south of the Mass Pike. We’ll see how far north the warm air actually gets. Some models try to bring it up into southern New Hampshire, others keep it confined to southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. For now, we’re going with the warmth extending into southern New Hampshire, but there is a significant bust potential there – temperatures could end up 5-15 degrees cooler than what we’re currently thinking.

60dPDataNRCC

More rain? Most of the region has received 10-15 inches since Labor Day. We don’t need any more for now! Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday, and it looks like it may remain mild. That won’t last though, as cooler weather moves in on Thursday as the high slides right across the region. By Friday, clouds stream back in ahead of the next system. This one should be a fairly quick-moving one, but it will bring another round of rain in late Friday and Friday, ending early Saturday morning.

GFS 50-STATES USA undefined undefined 150

Heading out Saturday night? Wind chills could be in the 20s to lower 30s. Better find that winter coat you stored away. Maybe some gloves and a hat too. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in once again next weekend, with another round of cooler conditions. This looks like the coolest airmass yet, as much of the area may stay in the 40s for highs both Saturday and Sunday. Normal highs for mid-November are still in the lower to middle 50s, so while this is cool, it’s not unusual for this time of year.If you’ve been resisting turning your heat on, you may finally lose that battle, as nighttime lows will be mainly in the 20s and 30s. Some clouds may move back in late Sunday as another weak system moves out of the Great Lakes. This may bring in some light precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Notice that we said “precipitation” and not “rain.” That’s because we’re not sure it will be just rain. Whatever falls, it doesn’t look like much at all, but don’t be surprised if we see some flakes around here around that time. There’s also the potential for another storm on Tuesday that may contain more precipitation, and again, may not be entirely liquid. We’ll have more detail on that in next week’s outlook, if things don’t change (which they almost certainly will).

Monday: Cloudy with some showers possible in the afternoon. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Temperatures hold steady or rise a few degrees overnight.

Tuesday: Some showers and drizzle early, windy with steadier rain developing in the afternoon. High 57-64, possibly cooler, especially in southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Rain ends in the evening, then skies clear out after midnight, still breezy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy again. High 54-61.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 47-54.

Friday: Some early sun, otherwise becoming cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon, becoming a steady rain at night. High 46-53.

Saturday: Showers ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 44-51.

Sunday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 38-45.

Standard