Weekly Outlook: November 30 – December 6, 2020

It won’t feel like the last day of November as we start the week on a windy, warm, and wet note.

A strong storm system will move up the Appalachians today, passing west of the region. This will allow unseasonably mild air into the area on gusty south to southeast winds. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected, with some gusts of 50-60 mph (or higher) possible, especially near the coast. Temperatures will get well into the 50s across the region today, with many areas, especially in eastern Massachusetts possibly topping 60 by late in the day. The warm weather will be accompanied by rain, some of which may be heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. By the time everything winds down at night, much of the region will have received 1-2 inches of rain, with some heavier amounts possible.

Heavy rain is expected across much of the region today. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As the system moves into southeastern Canada on Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. The day will start off mild, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s during the morning, but they’ll drop during the afternoon behind the front. A few more showers are also possible, but nothing as heavy as what we’re expecting today.

The NAM model shows the warm air move in today, remain in place into Tuesday morning, then colder air moves in Tuesday afternoon and night. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

By Wednesday, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast and southeastern Canada, bringing much cooler air in, though it will still be close to normal for early December. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around, and a pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out, maybe even a snow flurry. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine. Clouds return Thursday night and Friday along with milder weather ahead of the next storm system.

Next weekend looks unsettled, but pinning down specifics at this point is an effort in futility. The models have performed relatively poorly beyond a few days lately, and there are significant differences in their solutions for next weekend as well. For now, we’ll just go with unsettled conditions, and the chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday, but there is a possibility that the entire weekend won’t be unsettled. There’s also the possibility that all of the precipitation that falls wouldn’t be just rain. It will be early December, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise. We hope to have much more clarity on this when we write our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

The models have no idea what to do with a potential storm next weekend. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain, possibly heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm as well. High 55-62.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds, showers taper off toward midnight. Temperatures hold steady overnight.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. High 39-46.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, some high clouds may start to stream in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late in the day. High 47-54.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 43-50.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 42-49.

Stormy Weather Ahead for the East

A rather potent storm system will bring a variety of weather to the eastern third of the United States over the next few days.

Low pressure is developing along a frontal system in southern Texas this evening. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.

Low pressure developed along a frontal system in southern Texas on Saturday, and it will slowly strengthen as it moves northeastward tonight and Sunday. As it strengthens, it will draw moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, while colder air continues to move southward behind the storm system. This will set the stage for a couple of rather active days across the Eastern third of the nation, with several different types of weather likely.

The GFS model shows the progression of the storm over the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

The biggest threat initially will be severe weather. As the warm, moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico and clashes with the colder air moving in behind the storm, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. A few storms are possible overnight in parts of Texas and Louisiana, but the threat will shift into the Gulf Coast on Sunday, parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas Sunday night, and parts of the East Coast from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. Some of the stronger storms may produce heavy downpours, damaging winds, and possibly some tornadoes.

Strong to severe storms are possible from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas on Sunday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

While severe weather is not common at this time of year, it is certainly not unheard of. In fact, Saturday marked the 32nd anniversary of one of the strongest tornadoes on record to hit North Carolina. On November 28, 1988, an F4 tornado tore an 84-mile path of damage across parts of North Carolina, including the city of Raleigh.

As the storm moves up the Appalachians it will bring unseasonably mild air to the East Coast, but also some heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday. By Monday, 60-degree readings will be possible as far north as southern New England, with some 70s into the Carolinas and parts of southern Virginia. The mild air may linger into Tuesday across parts of New England as well. While these temperatures are 10-20 degrees above normal, they will likely fall short of the record highs in most locations.

Monday will be a warm day by November standards up and down the East Coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The warm weather will be transported in by strong southerly winds ahead of the system. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph will be common up and down the East Coast. Many places could see wind gusts of 50-60 mph or stronger, which could lead to power outages as trees and wires come down.

Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across the East Coast ahead of the storm. Image provided by WeatherBell.

In addition to the warm weather, heavy rain is likely for much of the East. The warm, moist air being drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico will be deposited up and down the East Coast later Sunday into Monday, and early Tuesday for parts of New England. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common, with some places possibly picking up 3 inches or more, especially in parts of eastern New England. While this will help put another significant dent in the long term drought that the region is experiencing, too much rain at once will likely lead to flooding in some areas.

Heavy rain is likely across the East Coast Monday into Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While all of this is going on ahead of the storm, a different scenario will be evolving on the storm’s back side. Colder air flowing southward from Canada will clash with the warm air, resulting in snow across parts of the Great Lakes and the Appalachians. The snow will be accompanied by gusty winds, lowering visibility in many locations, resulting in very hazardous driving conditions. While the snow won’t be exceptionally heavy, many places could receive upwards of 4-8 inches by the time everything winds down. Across the higher elevations of the Appalachians, even into the southern Appalachians, some heavier amounts are possible as well. As the systems gets caught under an upper-level low pressure system in southeastern Canada, it may produce some lake-effect snow into mid-week downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Accumulating snow is expected behind the storm system. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Once this system pulls away, things will quiet down across the East for a few days, but there are signs that another system could impact parts of the East next weekend.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 26-30, 2020

A wet Thanksgiving day appears likely, but much of the rest of the weekend looks dry at this point.

We’ve got plenty of clouds around today, well ahead of a low pressure system moving towards the Great Lakes. As that system continues eastward, we’ll see showers moving in tonight. While temperatures will be fairly mild for most of us, some chilly air is hanging around this afternoon from Southern New Hampshire into north-central Massachusetts and the Merrimack valley. While temperatures are mainly above freezing, a few spots could drop back close to freezing this evening, which may result in a few slippery spots as the rain moves in tonight. Temperatures should gradually rise towards morning even in these areas.

The milder air may never actually make it into Southern New Hampshire on Thanksgiving Day. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Thanksgiving starts out with some rain, but there may be a bit of a lull around early afternoon as the initial batch of rain moves out. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and a secondary area of low pressure will ride up along it, bringing more rain in by late afternoon and evening. There may even be a rumble of thunder with the rain, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts. Temperatures may remain on the cool side from southern New Hampshire into parts of interior Massachusetts, but across eastern Massachusetts, much milder air is expected, with some places, especially near the South Coast, possibly getting close to 60. Everything finally moves offshore during the evening, but skies remain cloudy overnight, with some patchy fog possible as there will be plenty of low-level moisture in place across the area.

The NAM model shows the progression of the storm tonight and Thursday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits

Friday likely features plenty of clouds but only a slight chance for a shower or two as an upper-level disturbance moves through, but temperatures should be mild in most places, with highs generally reaching the 50s. We finally start to clear out Friday night, with high pressure building in for the weekend with sunshine and cooler temperatures.

Monday will feature more changes. Another storm system will head towards the Great Lakes, sending some more clouds into the region. Right now, it looks like this could be a significant rain-maker for Monday night into Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday). This will help put a big dent into our long term rainfall deficit. This may also turn out to be a significant storm system for portions of the Midwest and East Coast. If this is still looking that way by Friday or Saturday, we’ll likely write up a special blog post about it.

Between Thursday’s storm and the one early next week, much of the region could receive some significant rainfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Wednesday night: Cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 33-40 in southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts, 41-48 elsewhere.

Thanksgiving Day: Periods of rain and showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder. High 45-52 in southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts, 53-60 elsewhere.

Thursday night: Showers end in the evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog likely. Low 36-43 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 44-51 elsewhere.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sun, just a slight chance for a late-day shower. High 52-59.

Friday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 36-43.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Sunshine. Lots of sunshine. High 44-51.

Sunday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move in overnight. Low 29-36.

Monday: Becoming cloudy High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: November 23-29, 2020

We’re going to put a few dents in that drought this week, as we’ll have a few storms systems to contend with, but it looks like they’ll be mostly rain, with one of them on Thanksgiving Day. Notice that we said “mostly rain”, as we could have some issues Wednesday night, especially in southern New Hampshire.

We’ll get some relief for the drought this week thanks to at least 2 storm systems. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

We start the week off on a wet note as low pressure passes north and west of the region, providing us with a rainy start to the day. Temperatures will be on the mild side this morning, but don’t get used to it. A cold front will cross the region by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but behind it, gusty winds will usher much cooler air back in as skies clear out, leading to a chilly night tonight.

The NAM model shows the warm air ahead of the cold front quickly replaced by much cooler air behind the front this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. It will still be breezy early on as today’s low pressure system continues to pull away, but winds should die down during the afternoon as the high continues to build in. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, we’ll have another chilly night, but some high clouds may start to move in late at night, which would prevent temperatures from tumbling too much. Those high clouds will be in advance of a warm front that will approach the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers. This could set up a tricky situation during the late afternoon and evening across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The warm front may have trouble moving northward during the day, and with chilly air in place and a little bit of precipitation possible, it could fall in the form of a little freezing drizzle, especially in southern New Hampshire, which could result in some slippery conditions Wednesday evening. This is a scenario that happens quite often during the fall and winter, and the models usually handle it poorly, or miss it completely, as they usually overestimate how quickly the warmer air will move in and how far north it can get. We’ve seen the models blow this type of forecast countless times, and the setup is there for it to happen again.

At least one model shows the potential for some icy conditions in southern New Hampshire Wednesday night. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

That next system brings in more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Right now, it looks like most of the rain will be in the morning, but there are still some timing differences among the models, so showers may linger into the afternoon, and possibly even the evening. High pressure builds in behind that system with drier and cooler weather again on Friday, though a few showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region.

Next weekend also has some questions, as the models all have differing solutions. Some models want to bring a weak system through late Saturday with some showers, then have high pressure build back in on Sunday, with another system potentially bringing in some rain next Monday. Others keep high pressure in control for much of the weekend, but have the next system move in at some point late Sunday or Sunday night. They also differ on the track of that system, which has significant implications for temperatures on Sunday. So, our forecast for next weekend is very-low confidence at this point, and may end up significantly different when we issue our weekend outlook (which will be on Wednesday this week instead of the normal Thursday).

The potential exists for a decent amount of rain around here between now and next Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Breezy with showers and some steadier rain this morning, possibly a rumble of thunder as well, ending by early afternoon, then skies start to clear out by evening. High 54-61 in the morning, but temperatures may drop pretty quickly during the afternoon.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy in the morning. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, high clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, possibly some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire during the evening or at night. High 36-43 north of the Mass Pike, 44-51 south of the Pike.

Thanksgiving: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, ending during the afternoon. High 42-49 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 50-57 elsewhere.

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56.

Sunday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.

Weekend Outlook: November 20-23, 2020

A warming trend is on the way for the weekend, but possibly some rain as well.

After a rather chilly start to the day, temperatures have moderated as high pressure moves offshore. Temperatures will continue to warm up into Friday and Saturday, though as the high moves off to our north and east, winds will shift into the northeast, allowing cooler air to slide back in later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Temperatures bottomed out in the middle teens to middlle 20s across most of the region this morning. Image provided by NOAA.

By later on Sunday, a warm front will move toward the region. Whether or not it makes it all the way through is still a question mark, but parts of the region, especially south of Boston, should see milder air move in for a while on Monday. The milder air will be preceded by some showers Sunday night and early Monday ahead of a cold front. While this won’t be drought-busting rainfall, every little bit helps at this point.

The models don’t agree on how far north the warm air will get on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 35-42.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 53-60.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 39-46.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 52-59.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy, some low clouds, fog, and drizzle are possible along the coast. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 42-49.

Sunday night: Showers likely, maybe mixed with a little sleet or wet snow at the start up into central New Hampshire. Low 34-41.

Monday: Showers end early, skies may clear out in the afternoon, breezy. High 53-60, possibly a little cooler in southern New Hampshire.

Weekly Outlook: November 16-22, 2020

After last night’s squall line, conditions will be significantly quieter for most of this week.

That was a fairly impressive squall line for mid-November that came through last evening. Loop provided by the Collegbe of DuPage

High pressure builds into the region today with breezy and cooler conditions as a cold front continues to push offshore. We’ll have some clouds popping up in the afternoon as cooler air moves in aloft, but we should remain dry. Another cold front will move through late Tuesday. This one may produce a few rain or snow showers, but for most of us it will pass through with little fanfare.

A few rain or snow showers are possible on Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Behind that front, much colder air will settle in for Wednesday. Temperatures likely won’t reach 40, with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens. As winds die down Wednesday night, low temperatures will drop into the teens across much of the region. Thursday will still be chilly, but with high pressure sliding offshore, temperatures will start to moderate a bit. The moderating trend continues into the weekend, as temperatures climb back above normal for the latter half of November.

Wind chills will be in the upper teens and 20s Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a late-day rain or snow shower. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Clearing, colder. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 29-36.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 39-46.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 51-58.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 49-56.

Weekend Outlook: November 13-16, 2020

After several days of sunshine and record-breaking warmth, we’re going to be dealing with cooler conditions and some wet weather at times in the next few days. In other words, welcome to November.

November is off to a very warm start across the Northeast. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Our record warmth is now a memory as a cold front has moved across the region. That front will stall out just to the south tonight, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Friday, bringing us some more showers as cooler air continues to settle into the area. Temperatures on Friday will be 25-30 degrees colder than they were on Wednesday.

Average high temperatures for mid-November are in the lower 50s across the area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in on Saturday with sunshine and temperatures that are more representative of mid-November. Sunday will start off dry, but another cold front will be approaching the region. We should turn milder again ahead of that front, but not nearly to the extent of what we’ve had for the past week. Showers are likely Sunday night into Monday morning as the front moves through. We’ll dry out and turn breezy and cooler again Monday afternoon as that front pushes offshore.

Thursday night: Cloudy with some patchy drizzle and a few showers. Low 37-44.

Friday: Scattered showers. High 46-53, possibly a little cooler north and west of 495.

Friday night: Clearing. Low 32-39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 44-51.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 26-33.

Sunday: Some morning sun, then clouds move in during the afternoon with showers possible toward evening. High 52-59, possibly cooler in southern New Hampshire.

Sunday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, ending before daybreak. Low 37-44.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 47-54.

Weekly Outlook: November 9-15, 2020

The warm and dry weather will continue for a couple more days, but changes are coming.

High pressure remains in control into early Wednesday, which means we’ve got a few more more days with near-record temperatures across the region. While the days will be sunny and warm, the nights will be a bit different. Some low clouds and fog are possible in some areas, especially near the coast. For areas that don’t get any fog, clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling.

Record highs will likely be broken across the Northeast again this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Wednesday is when the changes start happening. A strong cold front will approach from the west. Ahead of it, we’ll have some rain later Wednesday into Thursday, but it will remain warm, especially if we can get any sunshine during the morning. Since we’re still in a significant drought, and it hasn’t rained for a week, any rain is good news. While we may get some heavy rain, especially along the South Coast, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rain, some of which will be aided by moisture streaming northward from Eta, should stay south of the region.

Much of the region remains in a significant drought. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

As the front moves offshore, the rain should taper off and end Thursday evening, but the front will stall out south of the region. How far south is still a bit of a question, but it may remain close enough for some additional showers on Friday, mainly along the South Coast, as a wave of low pressure rides along the front.

How much rain will we get this week? Some models show a decent amount, some don’t. Which will be right? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in later Friday into Saturday with some cooler conditions, but temperatures will still be near to above normal for mid-November, especially on Friday. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as the next system will be starting to approach from the west, but there are significant differences in the timing of this system, depending on which model you decide to look at.

Monday: Some patchy morning fog, then becoming mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Monday night: Clear skies, some low clouds and fog may return in some spots. Low 45-52, though some spots could drop as low as the upper 30s..

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, again some low clouds and fog may develop. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers developing late in the day, becoming a steady rain at night. High 67-74.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with rain likely, ending late in the day. High 59-66.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers are possible along the South Coast, especially early. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 48-55.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Weekend Outlook: November 6-9, 2020

This will likely be the shortest update we’ve ever written. High pressure remains in control right through the weekend and into the start of next week with generally fair weather and unseasonably mild temperatures.

While it’s quite mild here, temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees above normal across the Midwest this weekend. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny, a little breezy at times. High 64-71.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Saturday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 65-72.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 41-48.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. High 63-70, a little cooler right along the coast.

Sunday night: Clear skies. Low 41-48.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 64-71.

Weekly Outlook: November 2-8, 2020

We’ve got a busy start to the week, then things get rather simple as we head into the middle and end of the upcoming week.

Wind Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast for Monday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We start off with a blustery and chilly day in the wake of a strong cold front that moved through overnight. Gusty west to northwest winds will usher some chilly air back into the region, similar to what we had on Saturday. There will be some sunshine, but also a decent amount of cloudiness. The clouds will become more widespread at night as winds die down, thanks to an approaching Alberta Clipper. This will move through early Tuesday morning, bringing in some snow or rain showers, maybe even a few squalls. We’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation for most of us, but any squalls could whiten the ground and possibly drop up to half an inch of snow. These will be most likely north of Route 2, especially in the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Once that system moves through, skies will clear out, but we’ll have another blustery and chilly afternoon on Tuesday.

Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible across the region today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Conditions become more tranquil on Wednesday as high pressure builds in with sunshine, lighter winds, and moderating temperatures. After that, the high moves offshore and remains there for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The result is generally fair weather with above normal temperatures. Some places could even make a run at 70 by next weekend.

Temperatures could reach 70 in many areas this coming weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, and chilly. High 36-43.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers possible late at night. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Tuesday: Any rain or snow showers (or squalls) ending in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, milder. High 48-55.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 58-65.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 61-68.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 63-70.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 65-72.