It won’t feel like the last day of November as we start the week on a windy, warm, and wet note.

A strong storm system will move up the Appalachians today, passing west of the region. This will allow unseasonably mild air into the area on gusty south to southeast winds. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected, with some gusts of 50-60 mph (or higher) possible, especially near the coast. Temperatures will get well into the 50s across the region today, with many areas, especially in eastern Massachusetts possibly topping 60 by late in the day. The warm weather will be accompanied by rain, some of which may be heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. By the time everything winds down at night, much of the region will have received 1-2 inches of rain, with some heavier amounts possible.

As the system moves into southeastern Canada on Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. The day will start off mild, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s during the morning, but they’ll drop during the afternoon behind the front. A few more showers are also possible, but nothing as heavy as what we’re expecting today.

By Wednesday, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast and southeastern Canada, bringing much cooler air in, though it will still be close to normal for early December. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around, and a pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out, maybe even a snow flurry. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine. Clouds return Thursday night and Friday along with milder weather ahead of the next storm system.

Next weekend looks unsettled, but pinning down specifics at this point is an effort in futility. The models have performed relatively poorly beyond a few days lately, and there are significant differences in their solutions for next weekend as well. For now, we’ll just go with unsettled conditions, and the chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday, but there is a possibility that the entire weekend won’t be unsettled. There’s also the possibility that all of the precipitation that falls wouldn’t be just rain. It will be early December, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise. We hope to have much more clarity on this when we write our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain, possibly heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm as well. High 55-62.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds, showers taper off toward midnight. Temperatures hold steady overnight.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. High 39-46.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, some high clouds may start to stream in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late in the day. High 47-54.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 43-50.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 42-49.

We’re going to put a few dents in that drought this week, as we’ll have a few storms systems to contend with, but it looks like they’ll be mostly rain, with one of them on Thanksgiving Day. Notice that we said “mostly rain”, as we could have some issues Wednesday night, especially in southern New Hampshire.

We start the week off on a wet note as low pressure passes north and west of the region, providing us with a rainy start to the day. Temperatures will be on the mild side this morning, but don’t get used to it. A cold front will cross the region by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but behind it, gusty winds will usher much cooler air back in as skies clear out, leading to a chilly night tonight.

High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. It will still be breezy early on as today’s low pressure system continues to pull away, but winds should die down during the afternoon as the high continues to build in. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, we’ll have another chilly night, but some high clouds may start to move in late at night, which would prevent temperatures from tumbling too much. Those high clouds will be in advance of a warm front that will approach the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers. This could set up a tricky situation during the late afternoon and evening across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The warm front may have trouble moving northward during the day, and with chilly air in place and a little bit of precipitation possible, it could fall in the form of a little freezing drizzle, especially in southern New Hampshire, which could result in some slippery conditions Wednesday evening. This is a scenario that happens quite often during the fall and winter, and the models usually handle it poorly, or miss it completely, as they usually overestimate how quickly the warmer air will move in and how far north it can get. We’ve seen the models blow this type of forecast countless times, and the setup is there for it to happen again.

That next system brings in more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Right now, it looks like most of the rain will be in the morning, but there are still some timing differences among the models, so showers may linger into the afternoon, and possibly even the evening. High pressure builds in behind that system with drier and cooler weather again on Friday, though a few showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region.

Next weekend also has some questions, as the models all have differing solutions. Some models want to bring a weak system through late Saturday with some showers, then have high pressure build back in on Sunday, with another system potentially bringing in some rain next Monday. Others keep high pressure in control for much of the weekend, but have the next system move in at some point late Sunday or Sunday night. They also differ on the track of that system, which has significant implications for temperatures on Sunday. So, our forecast for next weekend is very-low confidence at this point, and may end up significantly different when we issue our weekend outlook (which will be on Wednesday this week instead of the normal Thursday).

Monday: Breezy with showers and some steadier rain this morning, possibly a rumble of thunder as well, ending by early afternoon, then skies start to clear out by evening. High 54-61 in the morning, but temperatures may drop pretty quickly during the afternoon.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy in the morning. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, high clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, possibly some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire during the evening or at night. High 36-43 north of the Mass Pike, 44-51 south of the Pike.

Thanksgiving: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, ending during the afternoon. High 42-49 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 50-57 elsewhere.

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56.

Sunday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.

After last night’s squall line, conditions will be significantly quieter for most of this week.

High pressure builds into the region today with breezy and cooler conditions as a cold front continues to push offshore. We’ll have some clouds popping up in the afternoon as cooler air moves in aloft, but we should remain dry. Another cold front will move through late Tuesday. This one may produce a few rain or snow showers, but for most of us it will pass through with little fanfare.

Behind that front, much colder air will settle in for Wednesday. Temperatures likely won’t reach 40, with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens. As winds die down Wednesday night, low temperatures will drop into the teens across much of the region. Thursday will still be chilly, but with high pressure sliding offshore, temperatures will start to moderate a bit. The moderating trend continues into the weekend, as temperatures climb back above normal for the latter half of November.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a late-day rain or snow shower. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Clearing, colder. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 29-36.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 39-46.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 51-58.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 49-56.

The warm and dry weather will continue for a couple more days, but changes are coming.

High pressure remains in control into early Wednesday, which means we’ve got a few more more days with near-record temperatures across the region. While the days will be sunny and warm, the nights will be a bit different. Some low clouds and fog are possible in some areas, especially near the coast. For areas that don’t get any fog, clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling.

Wednesday is when the changes start happening. A strong cold front will approach from the west. Ahead of it, we’ll have some rain later Wednesday into Thursday, but it will remain warm, especially if we can get any sunshine during the morning. Since we’re still in a significant drought, and it hasn’t rained for a week, any rain is good news. While we may get some heavy rain, especially along the South Coast, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rain, some of which will be aided by moisture streaming northward from Eta, should stay south of the region.

As the front moves offshore, the rain should taper off and end Thursday evening, but the front will stall out south of the region. How far south is still a bit of a question, but it may remain close enough for some additional showers on Friday, mainly along the South Coast, as a wave of low pressure rides along the front.

High pressure builds in later Friday into Saturday with some cooler conditions, but temperatures will still be near to above normal for mid-November, especially on Friday. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as the next system will be starting to approach from the west, but there are significant differences in the timing of this system, depending on which model you decide to look at.

Monday: Some patchy morning fog, then becoming mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Monday night: Clear skies, some low clouds and fog may return in some spots. Low 45-52, though some spots could drop as low as the upper 30s..

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, again some low clouds and fog may develop. Low 52-59.

Wednesday: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers developing late in the day, becoming a steady rain at night. High 67-74.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with rain likely, ending late in the day. High 59-66.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers are possible along the South Coast, especially early. High 49-56.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 48-55.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

We’ve got a busy start to the week, then things get rather simple as we head into the middle and end of the upcoming week.

We start off with a blustery and chilly day in the wake of a strong cold front that moved through overnight. Gusty west to northwest winds will usher some chilly air back into the region, similar to what we had on Saturday. There will be some sunshine, but also a decent amount of cloudiness. The clouds will become more widespread at night as winds die down, thanks to an approaching Alberta Clipper. This will move through early Tuesday morning, bringing in some snow or rain showers, maybe even a few squalls. We’re not expecting much, if any, accumulation for most of us, but any squalls could whiten the ground and possibly drop up to half an inch of snow. These will be most likely north of Route 2, especially in the Worcester Hills and the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire. Once that system moves through, skies will clear out, but we’ll have another blustery and chilly afternoon on Tuesday.

Conditions become more tranquil on Wednesday as high pressure builds in with sunshine, lighter winds, and moderating temperatures. After that, the high moves offshore and remains there for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The result is generally fair weather with above normal temperatures. Some places could even make a run at 70 by next weekend.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, and chilly. High 36-43.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers possible late at night. Low 27-34 during the evening, temperatures hold steady or rise a bit overnight.

Tuesday: Any rain or snow showers (or squalls) ending in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, milder. High 48-55.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 58-65.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 61-68.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 63-70.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 65-72.