Weekly Outlook: June 27 – July 4, 2022

As we head towards a long weekend, much, but not all, of the upcoming week will feature some rather nice weather.

We start the week with a cold front approaching the region today. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front. While we’re not expecting a lot of rainfall today, we need every drop we can get, to help alleviate the developing drought. The front moves offshore this evening, then skies clear out. High pressure builds in or Tuesday and Wednesday with sunshine and mild temperatures. A weak disturbance may produce a shower or two Wednesday evening, otherwise, high pressure remains in control for the latter half of the week with dry weather and a warming trend. In fact, Friday, could be quite toasty, with some of the models showing temperatures well into the 90s across a good portions of the region.

Friday could be a hot day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

For the Fourth of July Weekend, the start looks a little uncertain. A frontal system will approach the region on Saturday. How warm we get ahead of the front will depend on the timing. If we can get some sunshine, it could be another hot day. The front should produce another round of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night. We should dry out for Sunday and Monday, with temperatures at least reaching seasonably warm levels, though some models show the potential for hot weather to quickly return, especially on the Fourth.

The European model has July 4th as a scorcher, the GFS does not. Which will be closer to the truth? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. High 74-81.

Monday night: Showers end in the evening, skies clear out after midnight. Low 53-60.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, chance for a shower during the evening. High 78-85.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 81-88.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 88-95, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 84-91.

Sunday: Showers and storms may linger into the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High 79-86.

Fourth of July: Mostly sunny. High 81-88.

Weekend Outlook: June 24-27, 2022

We’re entering the first weekend of astronomical summer and the weather is actually going to feel like….summer.

High pressure builds in tonight and remains in control through the weekend, with generally dry weather into Sunday. We could see a couple of stray showers Friday afternoon as a weak trough of low pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere moves through, but they’ll be few and far between. Otherwise, we’re good through Sunday. Temperatures will gradually warm up, some locations likely reaching or exceeding 90 both Saturday and Sunday. While it will be quite warm, it shouldn’t be that humid, with dewpoints generally in the lower 60s. Clouds will start to move in later on Sunday as a cold front starts to approach from the northwest. That front will move though on Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. We really need the rain to help alleviate the developing drought, but we’re not sure how widespread Monday’s activity will be. A few days ago, the models were all showing the possibility for a decent slug of rainfall, but as is usually the case when we’re in a drought, as we get closer the models continue to back off. We’ll have more details on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Drought conditions continue to expand across southern New England. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog, some of it dense in spots. Low 53-60.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82, coolest along the coast. Offshore: Northeast to east winds 5-10 knots, seas 3-5 feet, visibility under 1 mile in morning fog, improving by afternoon.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 84-91, a little cooler along the coast. Offshore: Variable winds becoming southwest 5-10 knots during the afternoon, seas 3-6 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 86-93, a little cooler along the coast. Offshore: South to southwest winds 10-15 knots gusting to 20 knots, seas 2-4 feet, visibility 10 miles or better.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy during the evening, increasing clouds after midnight. Low 63-70.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. High 73-80. Offshore: South to southwest winds 10-15 knots gusting to 20 knots, seas 3-5 feet, visibility 1-3 miles in showers and thunderstorms.

Weekly Outlook: June 20-26, 2022

Astronomical summer begins at 5:13am Tuesday, but it’ll be at least a few more days until some traditional “summer weather” arrives.

An upper-level low pressure system will pull away from the region today while a ridge of high pressure that has been roasting the nation’s mid-section will slowly start to slide eastward. At the surface, high pressure builds in today with sunshine and mild temperatures, but still a little below normal for the middle of June. A warm front will start to approach on Tuesday, and it may be accompanied by some scattered showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday. They shouldn’t be that heavy, and won’t ruin either day, but at this point, we need any rain we can get. That brings us to Thursday.

Average high temperatures for this time of year should be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

That warm front likely slips back southward, and a weak area of low pressure may develop offshore. That could result in a rather cool and wet day on Thursday. This is not definite by any means, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans just yet. By Friday, that front should lift northward again and the weak low pulls away, resulting in warmer and more humid weather for Friday into the weekend. While temperatures will be near to a little above normal, we’re not looking at any widespread heat just yet. A few thunderstorms could pop up each afternoon, especially Sunday, with a cold front approaching from the northwest.

Thursday may or may not be damp, depending on which model you believe. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and just a few afternoon clouds. High 71-78, coolest along the coastline with afternoon seabreezes likely.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 47-54.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79, again coolest at the coast.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 51-58.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a shower. High 68-75.

Thursday: More clouds than sun with showers likely. High 67-74.

Friday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower or two. High 76-83.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 79-86.

Sunday: Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78-85.

Weekly Outlook: June 13-19, 2022

While heat grips much of the nation, conditions will be a bit more pleasant around here this week:

A cold front will move offshore this morning, taking any lingering showers with it. High pressure then builds in later today into Wednesday with dry and seasonably warm conditions expected. Another cold front approaches later Thursday into Friday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid weather will return for those days as well, ahead of the front. Behind that front, high pressure builds in for next weekend with drier but still mild conditions.

Friday could be a really warm day even with a cold front moving through early. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Any lingering showers end this morning, skies clear out this afternoon. High 77-84.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine with just a few afternoon clouds. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day, more likely at night. High 77-84.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms end in the morning, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 81-88.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 72-79.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Weekend Outlook: June 10-13, 2022

Some additional much-needed rain is on the way, but it shouldn’t disrupt your weekend plans too much.

Rainfall has been below normal across the Northeast for most of the year, but the deficit has worsened recently. Image provided by ACIS.

High pressure builds into the region for tonight and Friday, with drier and seasonably mild temperatures expected. Things get a little more complicated over the weekend. An upper-level low pressure system will move across the the Northeast this weekend. It may help produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm during the afternoon on Saturday, but they’ll be hit and miss, so if you’ll be outside, just keep an eye to the sky. A disturbance rotating around that upper-level low will move in later Sunday. This will provide some additional pop-up showers or thunderstorms, but again, they don’t look to be that widespread. Another low pressure system will move in on Monday, with plenty of clouds and a better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Some models show the potential for a wet Sunday afternoon. We’re leaning toward a drier forecast with only a few showers and thunderstorms. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 51-58.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.

Friday night: Increasing clouds. Low 53-60.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High 73-80.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53-60.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially late in the day. High 72-79.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, showers possible, especially late at night. Low 55-62.

Monday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in the morning. High 72-79.

A couple of programming notes: 1. There will not be a Weekend Outlook published next Thursday. 2. When the Weekend Outlook resumes the following Thursday, we will be including the marine forecast for the remainder of the summer.

Weekly Outlook: June 6-12, 2022

Some beneficial rainfall could be on the way later this week.

We start the week off under the influence of high pressure, bringing sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures in today. Tuesday will also remain dry and mild, but clouds will start to stream in ahead of an approaching cold front. As that front moves nearer, we’ll see some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms developing Tuesday night into Wednesday. It doesn’t look like we’ll have any severe weather with this front, but it’s best to stay alert if you’ll be outdoors on Wednesday for anything. The front looks like it will stall out near or just south of the region, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it Wednesday night and Thursday, with the potential for some heavier rainfall, especially near the South Coast. It’s been a dry couple of months around here, and drought conditions have been developing, so any rainfall is needed.

Some beneficial rain could be on the way for late Wednesday and Thursday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure will build back in for Friday with dry and seasonably warm conditions, but next weekend may not be that great. Another complex low pressure system may move in for Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for more rain and cooler temperatures. There is still some disagreement among the models, so don’t go cancelling any plans for next weekend just yet. We hope to have more clarity on this when we publish our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Rainfall over the past 90 days is 2 to 5 inches below normal, so we need all the rain we can get. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and breezy, clouds start to thicken up late in the day. High 75-82.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly in the morning. Steadier rain possible at night. High 67-74.

Thursday: Rain ending in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. High 70-77.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 73-80.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain, especially during the afternoon and evening. High 71-78.

Sunday: More clouds than sun with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning. High 68-75.

Weekend Outlook: June 3-6, 2022

The first weekend of meteorological summer has arrived, and although it won’t feel like summer on Friday, the rest of the weekend should. Meanwhile, the first tropical system of the season is expected to impact Florida.

Moderate drought conditions are developing across parts of southeastern New England. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

An area of showers will move across the region tonight, ending towards midday Friday. This is good news, because we really need the rain, as drought conditions are developing across the region. Clouds will hang tough for most of the afternoon, keeping temperatures on the cool side for one more day, but some breaks if sunshine may develop in the afternoon. Skies clear out Friday night, but a cold front will move across the region on Saturday. It will generate some additional clouds, but only a sprinkle or two is expected. After that, high pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact parts of Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, it appears as though the first tropical system of the season is developing in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was centered about 80 miles north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico this evening, moving toward the north at 5 mph. The system still had a broad circulation, and conditions aren’t that favorable for development, but many of the models do insist that it will develop into a tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Alex over the next 12-24 hours. As a result, tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of western Cuba, central and southern Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas. The system should head northeastward, crossing Florida on Saturday. Gusty winds and a minor storm surge will be threats with this system, but the main threat, whether it develops or not, is heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches and heavier are likely across western Cuba, southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas over the next few days, leading to flooding in many areas. Across central Florida, rainfall totals of 2-6 inches will likely produce flooding as well. We’ll likely post an updated blog on just this system on Friday if it does develop.

Heavy rain will produce flooding across southern Florida and the Bahamas this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 50-57.

Friday: Showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon. High 64-71, a little cooler near the coast.

Friday night: Gradual clearing. Low 51-58.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, very slight chance for a sprinkle. High 72-79.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Low 49-56.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 71-78.