While the tropics remain active, our weather pattern definitely isn’t.
High pressure will remain in control through Saturday, providing plenty of sunshine, but keeping temperatures cool, though we’ll start to moderate over the weekend. A weak disturbance will bring in some clouds late Saturday and Saturday night, but high pressure builds back in for Sunday and Labor Day with more sunshine, warmer temperatures, but also more humidity.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 69-76.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 52-59.
Saturday: Sunshine and some late-day clouds. High 74-81.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Sunday: Early clouds, then becoming sunny. High 79-86, a little cooler near the South Coast.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Labor Day: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, a little cooler near the South Coast.
There are still three named storms in the Atlantic. Image provided by Environment Canada.
Meanwhile, we have three named storms in the Atlantic, but only one may still be a threat to land.
Tropical Storm Idalia has moved off the North Carolina coast and is weakening. As of 2pm, it was centered about 120 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, moving toward the east at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph. Idalia is starting to interact with a frontal system just to the north and will likely become an extratropical system later today or tonight. However, that’s likely not the end of Idalia’s story. It will continue eastward, and as it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, it may start to regain tropical characteristics and possibly strengthen again. It could be a threat to Bermuda this weekend, but beyond that, its future is a little murky. The steering currents may collapse, and Idalia could stall out and/or drift around near Bermuda. Many models have it start moving toward the northeast and out to sea, but this is hardly a lock. It will continue to generate some rough surf for the East Coast into next week.
Idalia;s future beyond the weekend is uncertain. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
Farther to the east, Hurricane Franklin continues to pull away from Bermuda this afternoon. As of 11am, Franklin was centered about 265 miles northeast of Bermuda, moving toward the east-northeast at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were still near 100 mph. Franklin’s future is fairly straightforward. It will head northeastward over open water while slowly weakening and losing tropical characteristics over the next few days without impacting any land areas.
Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
We also have Tropical Storm Jose in the Atlantic. As of 11am, Jose was centered about 770 miles east of Bermuda, moving toward the north at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Jose is expected to continue northward and weaken, and it will likely be absorbed by Franklin over the next day or two.
A system in the eastern Atlantic could become a tropical depression over the next few days, but isn’t a threat to land. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Way out in the Atlantic is an area of low pressure just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is slowly organizing, and conditions are favorable for more development. It could become a tropical depression by this weekend. Whether it develops or not, steering currents should send the system northwestward over open water through the weekend with no threat to any land areas.
We’re at the end of August, which means we’re entering the peak of hurricane season, and things are active, especially in the Atlantic.
There are now three storms being tracked across the Atlantic. Image provided by Environment Canada.
The biggest storm right now is Hurricane Franklin. As of 2pm, Franklin was centered about 330 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the north-northeast at 12 mph. After reaching Category Four strength yesterday, maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph today. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. Even though Franklin will pass well north and west of Bermuda on Wednesday, it is a large enough storm that tropical storm force winds are expected across the island. Squally conditions with showers and wind gusts of up to 50 mph are expected tonight and Wednesday, along with rough surf, but once past the island, Franklin should continue east-northeastward out into the open waters of the Atlantic while steadily weakening. Franklin will also produce some rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast and into Atlantic Canada, but otherwise will have little impact on land.
Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.
The new kid on the block is Tropical Depression 11, which just formed about 855 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is drifting northward. Wind shear is keeping the storm weak, but it may relax enough later today and tonight to allow for a little strengthening. If it does reach tropical storm strength, it would be given the name Jose. The storm is expected to slowly move northward over open water for the next few days, and by late in the week it should weaken and eventually dissipate without impacting any land areas.
Forecast track for Tropical Depression 11. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
By far, the storm that is the biggest threat is Hurricane Idalia. As of 2pm, Idalia was centered about 240 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving toward the north at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph. Idalia is moving over some very warm water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is low, which likely will result in some rapid strengthening over the next 12-24 hours. Idalia could become a Category 3 or even a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area Wednesday morning. This is one of the least-populated areas of the Florida coast, so that’s at least a little good news. However, significant impacts are expected across much of the region. Storm surge combined with astronomical high tides will result in flooding for much of the Florida west coast, including the Tampa area, but the biggest storm surge, upwards of 10-15 feet, is likely near and to the right of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The strongest winds will be east of the center, with wind gusts of 30-50 mph expected for much of the Florida Peninsula, with stronger winds, gusting to 60-80 mph or higher, likely from the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle, into parts of southern Georgia. The other threat will be heavy rainfall, mainly along and west of the center. From the Florida Panhandle into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas, rainfall totals of 5-10 inches and locally heavier are expected, which will produce flooding in many locations.
Heavy rain is just one of several threats that Idalia will produce across the Southeast. Images provided by Weathermodels.com.
While Idalia’s track is fairly straightforward for the next 2-3 days, beyond that, its future is a little murky. It will eventually turn more toward the northeast and east-northeast after landfall, moving back into the Atlantic later this week. How quickly it moves back into the Atlantic will determine how strong it still is at that time. This will also be a factor is determining where the heaviest rainfall is expected across parts of the Carolinas. Once offshore, there is a wide range of model solutions for Idalia’s track. Some have it stall out and sit well offshore, some have it drift towards Bermuda, so have it head out to sea, and some have it turn more toward the south or even southwest, where it could threat the Bahamas or even Florida again. It is far too soon to determine which solution has more validity than any other, but there’s a chance that we may not be done talking about Idalia once it moves away from the Southeast.
There’s a wide range for potential tracks for Idalia early next week. Image provided by Tomer Burg.
The Atlantic isn’t the only active basin right now, with two storms in the Western Pacific that bear watching. Super Typhoon Saola is centered about 340 miles north-northeast of Manila, Philippines, moving toward the northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Saola is expected to head westward, passing north of Luzon but across some of the smaller islands over the next 12-24 hours. After that it will head into the South China Sea, where it may slowly weaken. It could threaten parts of southern China, including Hong Kong later this week, though current forecasts keep the center offshore.
Super Typhoon Saola is a powerful system passing north of Luzon. Images provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.
Also in the Western Pacific is Tropical Storm Haikui, centered about 660 miles northwest of Guam, moving toward the west at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph, and the system should steadily strength, likely becoming a typhoon in the next day or two. Haikui should continue west-northwestward over open water for the next several days while strengthening. It is several days away from potentially impacting any land areas.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Haikui. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Guam.
Another system could be developing east of Guam over the next few days, and long-range forecasts show the potential for that system to possibly impact Japan by early next week. We also have Tropical Storm Irwin in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, but it is well west of Mexico over open water and weak, and expected to dissipate over the next few days.
The final days of meteorological summer feature more rain, which is pretty much keeping to the theme we had all summer.
Rainfall has been well above normal across New England this summer. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
The week starts off with a rather complex forecast, but today should be mainly dry with high pressure moving offshore. With the high centered mainly north and then east of us, we’ll have onshore winds, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of normal near the coastline. Moisture will begin streaming northward in the form of high clouds today, though they will thicken up and lower later in the day. Here’s where things start to get complicated. A frontal system is currently stalled out across the Southeast, it will gradually lift northward tonight and Tuesday, allowing some tropical moisture to follow. As moisture rides northward along the front, some rain is expected to move in late tonight and Tuesday, especially across southeastern New England. Some of this rain could be quite heavy, but how far north and west the rain shield extends, and how far northward the heavy rain gets is still a question mark. Right now, it looks like it’ll be mainly across the South Coast and parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but that is obviously subject to change. At the same time, we’ll also have another cold front approaching from the northwest. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on Hurricane Franklin well offshore and Tropical Storm (possibly Hurricane) Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico (more on these two below). Franklin will be helping to push the front to our south northward, while the other front moves in from the west. In between, we’ll have another round of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially during the morning hours, before the approaching front finally moves through the region. Again, some heavy rain is possible in spots, but probably not with coverage or intensity expected across the South Coast on Tuesday.
More heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Wednesday night, and remains in place into the weekend, keeping us mostly on the dry side, with temperatures starting cool, but gradually warming up as we get to the weekend. There is a potential fly in that ointment though. Idalia is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then head into the Carolinas and offshore on Thursday. The high building in here should block its northward progress and steer it out to sea well to our south. However, if the timing is off a bit, say Idalia slows down and makes landfall later than currently expected, then perhaps some of the moisture from it or its remnants ends up being dragged farther north, and ruins our forecast of drier weather into Labor Day Weekend. While this isn’t likely right now, it’s several days away, and things can change quickly, especially when tropical systems are involved. Either way, between Franklin and Idalia, we’ll have some rough surf across the beaches and coastal waters for much of the upcoming week, so keep that in mind if that’s where your plans bring you.
The GFS model shows high pressure building in for the end of the week and the weekend, shunting Idalia out to sea well to the south. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
By the weekend and into Labor Day, another cold front will approach the region, but aside from a few showers as it moves in on Sunday, it looks to remain mostly dry and warm.
As for the tropics, here’s the latest on our two named systems:
Satellite loop showing Tropical Storm Idalia in the northwestern Caribbean and Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits
Hurricane Franklin was centered about 530 miles southwest of Bermuda as of 11pm Sunday, moving toward the north-northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 105 mph. Franklin continues to get better organized and will continue to strengthen for another day or two as it heads northward and then northeastward over warm waters. While it will pass west and northwest of Bermuda late Tuesday and Wednesday, it will likely be close enough to produce tropical storm conditions on the island, with some locally heavy showers, and winds gusting upwards of 40-60 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for Bermuda on Monday. After that, Franklin will likely head northeastward out into the open Atlantic while gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Forecast track for Hurricane Franklin. Image provided by the Bermuda Weather Service.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia formed on Sunday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As of 2am Monday, it was centered about 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and barely moving. Maximum sustained winds were up to 60 mph. The forecast for Idalia calls for it to start heading northward, passing close to or across extreme western Cuba on Monday before heading into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Steady strengthening is expected, and Idalia will likely become a hurricane on Monday. Once into the Gulf, the water is very warm, and the warm water extends rather deeply under the surface, which is one of the main ingredients that feeds tropical systems. While the upper-level environment may not be perfect, the potential is there for Idalia to rapidly strengthen on Monday and Tuesday, possibly into a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida. Eventually it will start turning more toward the northeast, but when that turn occurs will be crucial for pinpointing landfall. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, which includes the Tampa Bay area. Once inland, it will start to weaken, but it should start to turn more toward the east-northeast and eventually east, as the high building in up here should block its northward progress. How quick that turn occurs will determine how long it stays over land before moving into the Atlantic, which in turn will determine how strong it still is when it reaches the Atlantic, if it survives that long. We’ll have a much more detailed post about the tropics on Tuesday as Idalia nears the Gulf Coast and Franklin makes its closest pass to Bermuda.
Forecast track for Tropical Storm Idalia. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning after some patchy fog burns off, clouds increase and thicken in the afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing near the South Coast, Cape, and Islands late at night. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm, except some locally heavy rain and thunderstorms possible across parts of Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Islands. High 71-78.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered showers, possibly a rumble of thunder. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Cloudy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending in the afternoon, followed by clearing in the evening. High 72-79.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 69-76.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 72-79.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 74-81.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a shower. High 75-82.
More rain is on the way, but most of the weekend should end up rather nice.
Rainfall totals over the past few months have been 1.5 to 3 times the normal amount. We’ll add to that tonight and Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure is moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon, and it will slowly head eastward, sending clouds into the region today, with rain developing tonight. Friday is looking like a cloudy, breezy, cool, and wet day ahead of the system, with episodes of rain and showers, possibly a few embedded thunderstorms, especially near the South Coast. The system will try to send a warm front across the region, but it doesn’t look like it’ll make too much progress northward, so most of us will stay cool, except areas closer to the South Coast. Some of the rain may be heavy during the day on Friday. The rain will taper off Friday night, but it may not end until Saturday morning, especially across eastern Massachusetts. As a cold front pushes offshore, we’ll see some sunshine develop, but another upper-level disturbance will move across the region, generating some additional clouds, and possibly a few late-day showers. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday, but yet another upper-level disturbance will move through, likely producing more clouds. We’ll have some drier air in place, but there will still be a chance for a stray shower or two as the disturbance moves through. Monday looks like the pick of the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.
The potential exists for some heavy rainfall across the region between tonight and Saturday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers developing, especially after midnight. Low 58-65.
Friday: Breezy and cool with episodes of rain and showers, some possibly heavy, a few rumbles of thunder are also possible. High 67-74.
The week will start off warm and somewhat humid, but cooler air is on the way.
Normal high temperatures for late August are right around 80. Images provided by Weathermodels.com
A cold front will approach the region today, with warm and humid conditions likely ahead of it. We’ll also have plenty of clouds, though there will be some sunny breaks. The front won’t have much moisture with it, but there may be enough for a few showers along the front during the late afternoon and evening hours. Once the front moves through, high pressure builds in for Tuesday through Thursday with cooler temperatures (they’ll be below normal for late August), and lower humidity, so you can open all the windows and let some fresh air back in once again.
Dewpoints could drop into the upper 40s Tuesday night across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Things turn unsettled for the end of the week. Low pressure moves into southeastern Canada, dragging a couple of frontal systems across the region. This will result in more clouds, higher humidity, and some episodes of showers, possibly some thunderstorms, between late Thursday night into Friday. A secondary system moves in for Saturday, but whether it crosses the region or stays offshore is still up for debate among the models, which has an impact not only on the weather we’ll expect, but the temperatures as well. Temperatures will remain on the cool side for late-August, thanks to the cloudcover and rainfall. By Sunday, high pressure builds back in with dry and cool weather returning.
The models have different ideas for what to expect on Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a late-day shower. High 80-87.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible during the evening, skies start to clear late at night. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and less humid. High 71-78.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.
Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 71-78.
Thursday: Morning sun fades behind increasing clouds, showers possible at night. High 73-80.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High 70-77.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 71-78.
The tropics in the Pacific and Atlantic can be described using the titles of two of Shakespeare’s plays – “The Tempest” for the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and “Much Ado About Nothing” for the Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricane Hilary has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it continues northward very close to the coast of the Baja California peninsula. As of 11am EDT, Hilary was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of San Diego, moving toward the north-northwest at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the southern California coast from the Mexican border northward to Point Mugu, including Catalina Island.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Hilary. Loop provided by NOAA.
Hilary is expected to continue weakening today as it passes very close to the Baja coastline and into southern California. Despite the hype over the past few days, Hilary will probably not make landfall in southern California, but instead across extreme northwestern Mexico, with the center moving into southern California farther inland, but still as a tropical storm. Hilary will produce gusty winds and storm surge along the coast, with a few tornadoes possible across parts of the Southwest, but heavy rain and the resultant flooding are the most significant threat with this storm. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are likely across many locations in southern California and Nevada, with some totals in excess of 10 inches possible. In some of the desert locations, including Death Valley, this is more rain than they normally receive in an entire year. Widespread flooding is likely, including the San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas metropolitan areas. As Hilary continues to push northward and weakens, heavy rain will spread across the Great Basin, and Inland Northwest, with rainfall totals of 1-3 inches possible, likely producing some flooding in these areas as well.
In the Atlantic, Saharan Dust has suppressed activity for the past few weeks, but now that it has moved out, there are several areas of interest, including a pair of storms.
Tropical Storm Emily has developed about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Emily is expected to continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, but conditions will become increasingly hostile, with wind shear increasing over the next few days, which will basically rip the system apart. This will result in steady weakening of Emily, with it likely become extratropical on Monday or Tuesday. After that it will turn toward the northwest and north, heading out into the open waters of the Atlantic, without impacting any land areas.
Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Emily. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Tropical Depression Six is barely hanging on as an organized system about 625 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Top winds are near 35 mph, and it is moving toward the west at 12 mph. Wind shear is ripping this system apart, and it is expected to dissipate over open water later today or tonight. At least the Hurricane Center didn’t waste a name on this piece of junk.
Another area of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. It should continue toward the west-northwest for the next day or two, and conditions are favorable for it to continue to develop. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system during the afternoon to check on the structure and strength of the system. It will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the northern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days, but it should turn more toward the north early this week, which will increase the threat to some of the islands, depending on when the turn occurs. Right now, it looks like Hispaniola will have the biggest threat, but this is predicated on when (or if) that turn occurs. It should eventually move north of the islands, possibly near the Turks and Caicos Islands, before heading out into the Atlantic. Once into the open waters of the Atlantic, it could become a potent storm system, but again, this is dependent on what it does in the next few days first.
An area of low pressure that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Bahamas and southern Florida has moved into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It is expected to continue westward across the Gulf over the next few days, with some development possible. It could become a tropical depression toward midweek before approaching the Texas coastline. Whether it develops or not, it should bring some much-needed heavy rain to parts of central and southern Texas later this week, helping to not only put a dent in the ongoing drought in the region, but also provide some relief from the heat. Of course, places like Dallas and Austin, where temperatures will be in the 100-110 range for the next few days won’t get any relief.
A system will bring much needed rainfall to parts of Texas this week. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Yet another tropical wave has moved off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression later this week. If it does actually develop, it is expected to remain over open water, with no impact to land areas through at least next weekend.
Some more rain is on the way, but so is a fantastic weekend.
Some downpours are possible on Friday, but for the most part, the rain won’t be heavy across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
A strong cold front is making its way across the Great Lakes this evening, and it will move into New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll have plenty of clouds and some fog tonight, with a few showers around, becoming more numerous toward daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday morning into early afternoon, and a few of them could contain some downpours and gusty winds, but a widespread severe weather event is not likely. Once the front moves offshore, we’ll quickly clear out late in the day, with breezy northwest winds ushering much drier air into the region. High pressure then settles in for the weekend. Saturday will feature sunshine and some fair-weather clouds with low humidity and below normal temperatures. We should have more sunshine on Sunday, with temperatures starting to creep up a little. Humidity starts to increase on Monday, as well as the cloudcover as the next system starts to move toward the region.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, possibly upper 40s, early Saturday. Images provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers becoming more likely late at night. Areas of fog likely. Low 63-70.
Friday: Showers and some thunderstorms through early afternoon, clearing and breezy late in the day. High 76-83.
An active weather pattern will continue across the region this week.
The first 12 days of August have been much cooler than normal, and this week won’t change that much. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
We start the week off with high pressure providing us with a dry and warm day today. Humidity levels will begin creeping back up as well. High clouds will filter the sunshine today, and then they will thicken up late in the day as the next storm system moves toward the region. A warm front will likely stall out near or just south of the region, with showers moving in ahead of it tonight. Occasional showers are likely on Tuesday, and with the front stalled out to the south, it will likely be a rather cool day. Showers end Tuesday night, then high pressure builds back in for Wednesday and part of Thursday with dry and seasonably warm conditions. The next system moves in later Thursday into Friday with some more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the week with dry and warm to potentially hot conditions.
Tuesday afternoon could be rather cool if the warm front doesn’t make enough progress northward. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine filtered through increasing and thickening clouds. High 78-85.
Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers and some thunderstorms likely. High 72-79, though areas North of the Mass Pike could stay in the 60s all day.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms ending. Low 61-68.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 75-82.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, a few showers possible late in the day. High 76-83.
Friday: Partly sunny with some showers and thunderstorms around. High 77-84.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 76-83.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 80-87.
An active weather pattern is expected for the next few days with several chances of rain.
A low pressure system will move across the region this evening, with some showers and thunderstorms likely. A few of the storms could produce some heavy rain, and there is a very low risk for some severe storms, mainly near the South Coast. We could see some brief spinups that may result in a weak tornado, similar to what we saw on Tuesday.
A few models show the potential for some heavy rain tonight, especially near the South Coast. Images provide by Pivotal Weather.
The rain winds down around midnight, then skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a fantastic Friday with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. Clouds stream back in on Saturday ahead of the next system. This one will be moving along quickly, but it will likely bring in some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. We’ll clear out behind that system Sunday afternoon, but another one quickly follows for Monday. Most of Monday should remain dry, but showers and thunderstorms may develop late in the day. They’ll be more likely at night and into Tuesday, with some heavy rain possible once again.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s for most of the region Friday afternoon. Images provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely this evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 60-67.
Friday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 76-83.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 56-63.
Saturday: Morning sun, increasing afternoon clouds. High 79-86.
Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 64-71.
Sunday: Showers end early, clearing during the afternoon, breezy. High 79-86.
Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65.
Monday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return in the afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day. High 77-84.
“Everything in moderation, including moderation” – Oscar Wilde
Mother Nature is taking that quote to heart this week, as we’ll have moderately high temperatures at times, moderate humidity at times, and some moderate rain at times.
Dewpoints will jump into the 70s across the region on Tuesday. Images provided by WeatherBell.
A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley, passing north and west of the region over the next day or two. Some showers will develop ahead of the system today as it sends a warm front in, with a very noticeable spike in the humidity. The showers will be mostly on the light side, and not everyone will get them. We’ll have a bit of a lull in the activity during the afternoon, then an area of steadier rain will likely move in by evening, and continue overnight into Tuesday morning. We could be looking at a second round of showers and thunderstorms later in the day as the cold front trailing the low pressure system finally moves through and pushes offshore. Wednesday looks like the pick of the week, with high pressure building in, providing sunshine, warm temperatures and lower humidity. The latter half of the week and the weekend look unsettled at this time, with a series of disturbances moving through. These will generate showers and thunderstorms at times, but the timing of these disturbances is still in question. None of the days will be a washout, but if you’ve got outdoor plans, keep an eye on updated forecasts as the week goes on.
A few models show the potential for some heavy downpours tonight across the region, but most of the models do not. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Plenty of clouds with a few breaks of sunshine, some showers around, especially during the morning and early afternoon. High 72-79.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 63-70.
Tuesday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms during the morning, some clearing in the afternoon, then another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 76-83.
Storm HQ 