Weekly Outlook: February 24-March 1, 2020

As we approach the end of February, there’s something you’ll need this week, and it’s not a shovel – it’s an umbrella.

We actually start the week off with another dry and mild day thanks to high pressure, but you’d better enjoy it, because things go downhill for the rest of the week. Temperatures should get into the 50s again, possibly even topping 60 in spots, but along the coast, we may have a seabreeze develop in the afternoon (yes, you read that right). A weak cold front moves through at night, bringing temperatures back toward normal, but that sets the stage for the next few days.

Temperatures should get well into the 50s across much of the area this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

That front will likely stall out south of New England and stay there on Tuesday. A weak wave of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing some showers to the region. They won’t be that heavy, and won’t be that widespread, so the day won’t be a washout. Across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, we may have some cold air linger long enough that we get a little bit of freezing drizzle or maybe even a few wet snowflakes. Drizzle and fog linger for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before the next storm system arrives.

Precipitation has been well below normal since Christmas, so we need some rain. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Later Wednesday into Thursday, low pressure will move into the Great Lakes while a secondary area of low pressure develops near or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This secondary low will spread some rain in for Wednesday afternoon and night, and some of it could be heavy. Once again, we may have some cold air in place across the Merrimack Valley, which could lead to a wintry mix or even some snow, but this is far from definite at this point. We’ll keep an eye on this over the next few days.

Depending on where you are and which model you believe, Thursday morning could be wet, white, or already drying out across the region. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

That low in the Great Lakes swings a cold front through Thursday morning, bringing an end to the precipitation, and ushering cooler and drier air back into the region. High pressure then builds in with cold and dry conditions as we head into the end of the week and the weekend. The only exception could be across parts of Cape Cod and the Islands, where some ocean-effect snow is possible as colder air blows in over the relatively mild ocean.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine with a few afternoon clouds. High 53-60.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 31-38.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with some showers likely. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Cloudy, with periods of drizzle and fog likely. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Clouds, drizzle and fog linger, becoming breezy at night with steadier rain moving in, possibly mixed with snow from the Merrimack Valley into Southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy with showers ending in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks may develop, breezy. High 43-50.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 31-38.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 28-35.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 25-32.

Weekly Outlook: February 17-23, 2020

The active pattern we’ve been in a for a few weeks has left, and now we’re in a much less active one, and it will actually feel like February.

A weak cold front crosses the region this morning, but you’ll barely notice it. We’ll still have sunshine and mild temperatures. That won’t last long though, as low pressure will move from the Great Lakes today into the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday. This will result in some rain around here on Tuesday. However, it will still be on the chilly side when the precipitation moves in by early afternoon (it is February after all), so we’ll likely see some snow to start, mainly from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. We’re not expecting much accumulation, mainly an inch or so, maybe 2 inches in parts of central New Hampshire, before a change to rain occurs during the afternoon. The rain ends during the evening, as the storm pulls away, then skies start to clear out late at night.

This is not going to be a big snowstorm, and the rain will wash away a lot of it during the afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

After that, the forecast for the rest of the week is very easy. High pressure builds in for Wednesday with sunshine and cooler conditions. Thursday and Friday will be even colder with sunshine, then temperatures start to moderate over the weekend with conditions remaining dry.

High pressure slowly moves from the Northern Plains on Wednesday to the Mid-Atlantic states by Sunday, keeping us dry for several days. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Monday night: Clear skies during the evening, then clouds move in overnight. Low 19-26.

Tuesday: Snow and rain developing around midday, changing to all rain, during the afternoon. High 34-41 north of the Mass Pike, 42-49 south of the Pike.

Tuesday night: Rain ending by midnight, then skies start to clear out late at night. Low 28-35.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 35-42.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and turning colder. High 23-30.

Friday: Sunny and cold. High 25-32.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 38-45.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 42-49.

Weekly Outlook: February 10-16, 2020

Our weather pattern will remain fairly active this week, but it will be more wet than white. Winter’s not over though, and Mother Nature will have a reminder of that late in the week.

So far, this winter has been classified as mild using data from Blue Hill. For more info on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, visit https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp (Image provided by the Midwest Regional Climate Center)

We start the week off with some rain showers this morning, and a few wet snow flakes across southern New Hampshire. This rain won’t be too heavy and won’t last too long, as a cold front will drop southward by early afternoon, bringing the precipitation to an end. We may even see some clearing late in the day, especially north of the Mass Pike, as high pressure tries to build in to the north. This is somewhat important, as it will bring some colder air into the region. Why is it important? That cold front will lift back northward as a warm front late Monday night into Tuesday. With that colder air in place, we may see some snow or sleet develop before daybreak, mainly away from the coast, before the warmer air moves back in Tuesday morning, changing everything back to rain, ending late in the day. This time the rain will be a little heavier as the associated low pressure system will be a bit stronger, but overall, we’re still not looking at a big storm.

Between now and Tuesday evening, most of the region will receive around half an inch of rain or less. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with drier air, but it won’t last too long. We’ll still have a mild day (by February standards), but it’ll be a tad cooler than Monday or Tuesday. The next system moves in for Wednesday night and Thursday. Again, we’ll have some cold air in place to start, which likely means the precipitation starts as snow again. This time, we may even see some accumulations Thursday morning before a change to rain takes place. Again, we’re not expecting a big storm, but a few inches of snow could result in a messy Thursday morning commute, especially north and west of Boston.

High pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with some much colder weather. Temperatures will actually be below normal, which hasn’t been a common occurrence this winter. As the high slides offshore, temperatures will moderate before yet another storm moves in, with some rain likely late Sunday and Sunday night.

Saturday morning could be quite chilly across the area. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy and breezy at times with showers ending from north to south during the afternoon. Some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 38-45.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers redeveloping south of the Mass Pike, possibly starting as snow or a wintry mix across the interior. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, ending late in the day. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Sunshine filtered through some afternoon high clouds. Cloudy at night with snow developing, changing to a wintry mix and then rain south of the Mass Pike by daybreak. High 36-43.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with snow changing to a wintry mix and then rain during the morning from south to north, ending late in the day. High 38-45.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy, and much colder, slight chance for some snow showers across the Outer Cape. High 23-30.

Saturday: Sunshine fades behind increasing afternoon clouds. High 24-31.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain developing in the afternoon. High 36-43.

Messy Thursday Coming Up

A pair of storm systems are heading our way, but for most of us, snow will be the least of our concerns. Your Thursday morning commute will be a mess however.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the Northeast away from the coast, with Winter Storm Watches up north. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will ride along a frontal system that is stalled out south of New England tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure is in place to the north, bringing some colder air into the area. As the precipitation shield ahead of the low moves in after midnight, it will fall in the form of snow across most of the area, except along the South Coast, where it will be mainly rain with some sleet mixed in. This snow won’t last too long though, as warmer air will be moving in aloft. This will change the snow to sleet and then freezing rain from south to north as the morning progresses. We’re not expecting much snow accumulation, but the combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will make a mess out of the morning commute.

The first part of the storm could produce a decent amount of sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The warmer air eventually pushes in at the surface by early afternoon for most of us, changing everything to plain rain. Across southern New Hampshire, things could get tricky. Temperatures may not get much above freezing, or even above freezing at all, which would keep the freezing rain going, resulting in very slippery conditions. The precipitation should taper off by late afternoon, with only some drizzle or freezing drizzle through the evening and the first part of the overnight.

While we deal with a wintry mix, severe weather is expected across much of the Southeast on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.

This brings us to the 2nd part of our double whammy. The storm that is producing severe weather across the Gulf Coast today will head towards Southern New England on Friday. Rain will redevelop after daybreak, and it could be heavy for a while during the morning. This will have some impact on the Friday morning commute, but not to the extent of the wintry mix on Thursday. Across southern New Hampshire, we may have some more significant problems though. We may still have cold air in place at the surface, which could lead to more freezing rain and sleet as the heavier precipitation moves back in. If the precipitation is heavier enough, it could drag some of the warmer air aloft down to the surface, changing everything to plain rain, but the Friday morning commute could be a mess along I-93 and US-3 north of the Massachusetts border.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, maybe even heavier, are possible across the region between now and Friday evening. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

As the low moves across Southern New England, places south of the center of the low, mainly Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, will see temperatures jump into the 40s or even the 50s. However, as the low passes by, colder air will quickly move in both at the surface and aloft. This will allow the precipitation to change to snow from northwest to southeast. The cold air will be moving in as the precipitation comes to an end though, which will limit any accumulations.

The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of our double-barreled storm and the variety of precipitation it will produce. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

If you’re a skier, you’ll be happy, as this storm will be mainly snow and sleet up north, with significant accumulations possible in ski country.

Many locations up north could see 6-12 inches of snow or more between now and Saturday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

The pattern we’re in will be active for a while, with storm systems coming in every 2-3 days for the next week or two. Some of these will contain wintry precipitation, it is February after all.

Weekly Outlook: February 3-9, 2020

Yesterday was Groundhog Day and also the end of football season, but today brings us a sign that Winter will be over soon and Spring is right around the corner. It’s Truck Day! The Red Sox equipment truck leaves Fenway today to begin the drive down the coast on I-95, eventually heading over to I-75 to arrive in Fort Myers, Florida later this week. Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training a week from tomorrow. As for the weather, we’ve got a Spring preview today, but the rest of the week won’t be as pleasant.

Sick of winter? Today is Red Sox Truck Day! Spring training isn’t far behind. Image provided by Boston Herald.

A warm front will cross the region this morning, with high pressure briefly building in behind it. There could be a little patchy fog this morning, but sunshine should develop, with high temperatures getting into the 40s, maybe even topping 50 in some spots. Unfortunately, today is the pick of the week. A storm system will approach on Tuesday, with some showers likely. As colder air settles in behind the system, a change to wet snow is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends. There might be enough to coat the ground in some spots, but that’s about it.

Temperatures should get well into the 40s across the region this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As our storm pulls away, another one quickly follows as the pattern starts to get more active. Precipitation ahead of this system moves in Wednesday night and with colder air in place it will likely start as snow. Some accumulations are likely, but they should be mostly light to moderate the farther north you go, with a change to sleet and then rain from south to north Thursday morning. It’s a little too early for specifics, but if this threat continues, we’ll have a special blog post before the storm with amounts. The Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted by this storm.

We get a brief break Thursday afternoon, then another storm heads our way for Thursday night and Friday. Right now, this one looks like mostly rain, and probably quite a bit of rain, but that is not etched in stone just yet. While we’re expecting it to be quite mild with the storm passing near or just north of the region, thus putting most of the region in the warm sector, there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the storm tracks. The farther south and east it tracks, the better the chance cooler temperatures and for some snow across the interior, especially well north and west of Boston.

There is quite a bit of disagreement among the models as to temperatures around here on Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather,

Our active pattern looks to continue into the weekend, as another system moves through, with some snow possible Sunday. There’s plenty of uncertainty on this one as well, so stay tuned.

Monday: Some patchy fog early, then becoming partly sunny. High 41-48.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers possibly changing to snow showers, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Snow or rain showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon. Snow redevelops late at night. High 35-42.

Thursday: Cloudy with snow in the morning, changing to over to sleet and freezing rain, then all rain during the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at night. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off to showers during the afternoon, ending in the evening. High 44-51, except 36-43 from southern Maine and the NH Seacoast across to central NH.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. High 29-36.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High 33-40.