Weekly Outlook: December 27, 2021 – January 2, 2022

The final days of 2021 will feature an active weather pattern that doesn’t really do too much.

High pressure starts the week off with sunshine, but clouds quickly move in later today ahead of a weak storm system moving toward the region. This system will lose much of its punch, and the bulk of its precipitation will stay to our south, but a few snow showers or some spotty freezing rain are possible early Tuesday as it moves through, with mainly rain showers south of Boston. Another system quickly follows for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a few rain or snow showers. Yet another weak system may bring in a few more showers on Thursday. High pressure brings in dry and seasonable conditions for New Years Eve. If you’re heading out for any First Night festivities, the weather shouldn’t be an issue. New Years Day also looks decent with high pressure in control.

Normal high temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s at the end of December. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Sunday is where we could have problems. As we’ve mentioned numerous times later, the forecast models have been, well, awful, beyond a few days (and sometimes beyond a few hours), so this is a very low confidence forecast. However, many of the models have been indicating a period of stormy conditions centered around next Sunday and/or Monday. We’re going to keep the forecast very general for now, and hope that we have some more clarity by the time we get to the Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Sunday could be stormy, but the details are still fuzzy. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sun, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late south of Boston, snow showers or freezing rain north and west. Low 22-29 during the evening, temperatures may rise after midnight.

Tuesday: Early clouds and lingering showers give way to some afternoon sunshine. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy with a few showers possible. High 40-47.

New Years Eve: Partly to mostly sunny. High 38-45.

New Years Day: Some early sun, then becoming cloudy. High 39-46.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of…..something. High 38-45.

Weekend Outlook: December 24-27, 2021

Could we actually have a White Christmas across the area? It’s certainly a possibility.

Clouds will thicken up tonight as a weak storm system moves toward the region. That system will spread some light snow across the area Friday morning. It won’t be a big deal, with most places receiving a coating to an inch or two of snow. If you do have to work Friday morning, the commute could be a little slippery. We’ll have some clearing in the afternoon, but temperatures will stay chilly, so much of the snow will remain on the ground. The “official” definition of a White Christmas is 1″ or more of snow on the ground at 7am. Will that happen? It could in some spots, but even if there’s not 1″, the grass should still be white for many of us.

We’re not expecting much snow Friday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another system quickly approaches for Christmas Day into Sunday morning. This one looks a bit milder, with some rain likely during the afternoon, possibly starting as some freezing rain or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. The rain won’t be that heavy, but as the system passes by Saturday night, colder air will fill in behind it, with a chance to light snow possible, again, mainly in southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. Some minor accumulations are possible, but again, nothing major is likely. We’ll clear out again for Sunday afternoon into Monday as high pressure builds back in.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, light snow develops before daybreak. Low 14-21.

Christmas Eve: Light snow ends early, some afternoon sunny breaks. Snow accumulation a coating to perhaps 2 inches in spots. High 30-37.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Christmas Day: Cloudy with showers developing, possibly starting as some freezing drizzle or sleet from the Merrimack Valley into southern New Hampshire. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Showers may change back to wet snow, mainly across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers end early, some sunny breaks in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 33-40.

Weekly Outlook: December 20-26, 2021

“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”

Sure, there’s some snow on the ground in southern New Hampshire, but it won’t last too long, and the rest of us have bare ground. However, there is a chance we could have a White Christmas for parts of the region, depending on a potential storm system next weekend.

The week is starting on a very chilly note. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’re starting the week on a chilly note, in the wake of the system to moved through Saturday night. We’ll turn a little milder on Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward but another weak cold front will move through. How weak? Aside from a few clouds, you’ll barely notice it, except for the fact that it’ll turn a little cooler once again. A low pressure system will pass south and east of the region on Wednesday while a second one passes well to the north. The southern system may spread some light rain into parts of eastern Massachusetts, while the northern one has little impact other than some clouds. Some of the models show the possibility of the rain spreading farther inland, where some colder air could be in place. This would imply the potential for a little freezing rain from southern New Hampshire into parts of central Massachusetts. We’re not confident that will be the case, but do acknowledge that it is possible. High pressure builds in with drier and colder conditions on Thursday.

At this point, we feel compelled to remind you that the forecast models have really struggle beyond 2-3 days lately. So, the forecast for Christmas Weekend is highly uncertain, and you should treat it that way.

A weak disturbance may cross the region on Christmas Eve with some snow showers possible. Christmas Day is very uncertain at this point. Low pressure will head across the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, sending a warm front this way. The question is, does a secondary area of low pressure form along this front, and if so, where does it track, and also, how strong does it get? At this point, a scenario similar to the one we just had on Saturday seems plausible, with snow changing to a wintry mix and possibly rain inland, and rain possibly starting as some snow along the coast. Of course, this is all subject to change and some fine-tuning as we go through the next several days. An upper-level low will follow for Sunday, keeping some clouds and possibly a few lingering snow showers around.

Once again, there’s not much model agreement on our potential system for Christmas Day. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-37.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Tuesday: Sunshine through some high clouds. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, some light rain is possible in eastern Massachusetts, possibly a little freezing rain across the interior. High 35-42, except 43-50 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 30-37.

Friday: Cloudy with some snow showers possible. High 36-43.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 35-42.

Weekend Outlook: December 17-20,2021

This shouldn’t be a surprise, since it’s mid-December, but it’s going to snow this weekend.

Temperatures are 15-25 degrees above normal this afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After a mild day, a cold front will approach the region tonight, but only a few stray showers will accompany it. The front moves through early on Friday, but we’ll remain mild before a stronger push of colder air moves in late in the day as high pressure starts to build in across southern Canada. As we get to Saturday, low pressure will begin moving out of the Midwest and head towards New England, while a secondary area of low pressure develops south of New England. Exactly where this low tracks will help us determine how far north the warmer air will push, which is a key part of the forecast.

Where does the low track and how far north does the warm air penetrate? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Snow should develop across the region towards midday or a little thereafter. A very quick change to rain is expected across the South Coast, if it doesn’t start as rain there. The rain/snow line should quickly move northward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. The evening and overnight is where things get tricky. The warmer air likely only gets as far north as the Mass Pike or possibly Route 2. However, we’ll also have warmer air moving in aloft, which means a change to sleet or freezing rain is possible across northern Massachusetts and possibly southern New Hampshire, even if it doesn’t all change to plain rain. Any changeover will have a significant impact on snow amounts. As the low moves away early Sunday, a change back to snow is possible before everything winds down toward daybreak. High pressure then builds in with sunshine and cooler conditions for Sunday afternoon and Monday.

So, how much are we looking at? There are plenty of models out there showing a decent snowstorm, especially across the interior. We’re not buying it. We think they’re underestimating the mild air aloft. A quicker change to sleet and/or rain than what some of the models are showing seems more likely, especially the farther south and east you go. So, having said that, here’s our thinking:

Cape Cod/South Coast: A few flakes
Points south and east of Interstate-95: 1″ or less
Metro West/North Shore: 1-2″
Merrimack Valley/NH Seacoast: 1-3″
Southern NH/Central MA: 3-5″
Central NH: 4-7″

The National Blend of Models is probably closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, slight chance for a shower, some clearing late. Low 44-51.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, high clouds start to stream back in late in the day. High 50-57.

Friday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 28-35.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow developing during the afternoon, quickly changing to rain along the South Coast. High 35-42.

Saturday night: Light snow across southern New Hampshire, changing to sleet and freezing rain across northern Massachusetts, and plain rain elsewhere. Low 27-34.

Sunday: Rain or snow showers ending around daybreak, clearing in the afternoon. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Clear and colder. Low 12-19.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 27-34.

Weekly Outlook: December 13-19, 2021

We’re in a fairly active weather pattern, but despite that, we’re not going to have too much going on for a good portion of this week.

The week starts off with high pressure in control, bringing us sunshine and mild temperatures today. A weak frontal system drops southward across the region on Tuesday with a few clouds, but it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure passes by to the north on Wednesday while that weak front starts to head northward again as a warm front. It will send some clouds into the region on Wednesday. Some showers are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures may be near freezing for a while Wednesday evening into southern New Hampshire before the milder air moves back in, which means a period of icing or even some wet snow is possible as the precipitation overspreads the region.

Conditions could be iffy across southern New Hampshire for a while Wednesday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday looks to be quite mild once again, with temperatures well into the 50s, possibly topping 60 in some locations. However, low pressure will be moving across southern Canada, dragging a cold front towards the area. Some showers may accompany the front as it moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front on Friday with drier and cooler conditions.

Thursday looks like another mild afternoon. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Next weekend is where there is considerable uncertainty. The models have done rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days recently, so looking ahead 6 days is a low-confidence forecast to begin with. However, the models seem to come up with a different solution nearly every run lately, and none of them agree with the others. A wave of low pressure may move toward the region for Saturday, but exactly where it goes (or if it even develops), is a giant question mark. Some models bring it well north of us, resulting in mild conditions and rain. Some bring in close to or over the region, resulting in a wintry mix, and some bring it south of the region, which could mean snow, or it stays too far south and we get no impacts at all. At this point, any of those solutions could be the right one. As Ozzy Osbourne famous sang “Don’t look at me for answers, don’t ask me, I don’t know.”

Ozzy was singing about this weekend’s forecast

Sunday looks to be dry and cool with high pressure building back in, but that could be impacted by what happens (or doesn’t happen) on Saturday. We should have more clarity on that when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Rain, snow, or nothing on Saturday? Depends which model you look at. We trust none of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some clouds in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 44-51.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely at night, possibly starting as some freezing rain or wet snow across southern New Hampshire. High 39-46.

Thursday: Cloudy, breezy, and mild, any showers ending in the morning. High 52-59.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 47-54.

Saturday: Partly to mostly ________ with a chance of _______. (We’ll fill in the blanks later this week). High 37-44.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 33-40.

Weekend Outlook: December 10-13, 2021

The next few days will not feel like mid-December, but the pattern won’t exactly be quiet.

Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We’ll have a cool evening with high pressure in control, but clouds will be streaming in ahead of a warm front. As that front moves through overnight, temperatures will start to rise after midnight, and we could see a few flurries or sprinkles. Friday will be milder with plenty of clouds, but aside from a few stray sprinkles or showers, the day should remain dry. As low pressure heads into southern Canada, it will drag a strong cold front toward the region. Ahead of that front, we’ll have some showers developing Friday night, continuing off-and-on through Saturday. The day won’t be a washout, but it won’t be completely dry either. That’s not the big story for the day though. South to southwest winds will be quite gusty, sending even warmer air into the region. Many locations will likely top 60 degrees once again. The front moves through overnight, with showers ending by daybreak. Skies clear out for Sunday and Monday with high pressure building in, but temperatures will still be near to even above normal for mid-December.

Saturday looks very mild, especially during the afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a flurry or a sprinkle. Low 23-30 during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, showers developing late at night. Low 29-36 during the evening, temperatures rise again overnight.

Saturday: Cloudy, windy, and mild with occasional showers. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Cloudy and windy with more showers, possibly a thunderstorm, ending late at night. Low 34-41.

Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, still breezy in the morning. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Clear. Low 28-35.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. breezy at times. High 46-53.

Some Snow is on the Way

The first widespread measurable snowfall of the year is on the way for most of us, but overall, it’s not that big of a deal.

Most of the region has already seen snowflakes this season, and even had a coating on the grass in spots, but the system moving in for Wednesday will bring us our first measurable snow of the year. If this were the middle of winter, you’d barely notice it, but since it’s the first one of the season, and it will be timed for the afternoon commute, plenty of people will lose their minds and forget how to drive in the snow.

Very little snow has fallen so far this season. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A low pressure system will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday and head northeastward while strengthening, passing well south and east of New England. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move into Northern New England. If these two were to interact, it could create a pretty impressive low pressure system. However, they won’t, so we’re just left in the middle, with some light snow inland and rain along the coast, changing to snow during the evening. There could be some snow showers around during the morning, especially across southern New Hampshire, but the bulk of the activity should move in between 2 and 4pm, just in the for the afternoon commute. Light snow will continue through the evening, with rain south of Boston. The rain should change over to snow during the evening, with everything winding down by midnight, possibly a little later across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.

The GFS model depicts the progression of the storm across the area. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

There is still a little bit of an unknown with this system. Some of the models are showing an enhanced band of snow developing along the coastline during the evening hours. Not all of the models show this, and the ones that do, don’t all show it in the same area. Some show it in coastal Maine, some along the New Hampshire Seacoast, some near Cape Ann, and some along the South Shore. We’re not convinced this will even develop, but are wary that it may, and will take that into account in the forecast.

So, how much do we expect? For the most part, most of us will see an inch or less (like we said, not a big deal). A few places could see 1-2 inches. There is a low probability that coastal locations could see more than that, if that enhanced band does develop.

The GFS model is closest to our thinking for snowfall amounts. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Overall, this more of a nuisance than anything. Another system may bring in a little light snow early Friday before a big warmup on Saturday, when many of us will break into the 60s once again.

Weekly Outlook: December 6-12, 2021

We’ve got some rather typical December weather coming up this week with the possibility of some snow, temperatures in the 60s, and thunderstorms. Wait, what?

Low pressure will move across southeastern Canada today, dragging a warm front across the region this morning. Some showers are likely ahead of the front, but once it pushes through, gusty southerly winds will bring unseasonably mild conditions in. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the afternoon and evening for parts of southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island, as those southerly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph at times. Temperatures should get to 60 in much of the region despite plenty of clouds, though it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw more than a little sunshine during the afternoon, which could allow for even milder temperatures than we’re currently expecting.

Winds could gust to 50 mph or higher this afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A strong cold front will move through by evening, with another round of showers ahead of that front, possibly even some thunderstorms. As the much cooler air sweeps in behind the front on gusty west to northwest winds, we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in with the rain before it ends across parts of southern New Hampshire.

One batch of rain moves through this morning and another this evening. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions, though there are some indications that a few streamers of lake-effect snow could eventually survive the trip eastward and move across the region during the afternoon. It shouldn’t amount to anything more than some scattered flurries, but it is a possibility. Clouds move right back into the region by Tuesday evening ahead of another storm system.

Editorial note: With an active and fast-moving pattern in place, many of the forecast models have been struggling mightily to the point of being useless beyond 2 or 3 days. With that in mind, everything below is highly uncertain, with lower confidence than usual. We’re giving you our current thoughts and “best guess” for lack of a better term, but there’s a decent chance that all of this could change, especially later in the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the evolution and track of our mid-week storm system, but the basics are that it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and pass south of New England. How far south is unknown at this point, and will have a significant impact on the forecast. The models are nowhere near close to a consensus at this point, with solutions that range from a track well to the south with little to no impact, to a track closer to the region with the potential for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow across the region with rain near the south coast. For now, our preliminary thinking is a track a decent ways south of the region, with just some light snow, with rain right along the coast. Obviously this is subject to change, and depending on how things look, we may write another blog post tomorrow, since this could be the first accumulating snow of the season for parts of the region. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we’re not going to mention any amounts at this point, and if you see anyone online or in the media posting snow maps you should ignore them, because they’re just as clueless as everyone else.

The models all have differing ideas for what might happen on Wednesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds back in for Thursday with dry and chilly conditions, then another storm may quickly follows for Friday. Some of the models show little to no precipitation with this system others show the chance for some rain, starting as snow north and west of Boston. We’ll obviously have a better idea on this system when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, but for now, we’re just going to call it a chance of rain or snow. That system moves out Friday night, but the active pattern remains in place, with yet another system quickly moving in for the weekend. This one looks much milder, with rain and breezy conditions, though it could end as some snow across the interior as colder air moves in on the backside of the storm.

Saturday could be another very mild day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Early showers, then some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon, becoming windy and mild. High 62-69.

Monday night: Showers and possibly some thunderstorms during the evening, skies start to clear out late at night. Some wet snow may mix with the rain before it ends from southern New Hampshire into central Massachusetts. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and much cooler, clouds stream back in late in the day. Chance for a few flurries. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, except snow or rain along the coast. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32-39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 42-49.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with a chance of showers. High 53-60.

Sunday: Showers may mix with wet snow before ending in the morning. becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 43-50.

Weekend Outlook: December 3-6, 2021

Although we’re in a fairly active pattern, we’re not expecting a lot to happen in terms of the weather over the next few days.

A cold front will move across the region tonight with a few showers accompanying it. It will bring an end to our brief mild spell, as Friday will be quite a bit cooler behind the front, with gusty northwest winds adding a little extra bite to the air. We should have plenty of sunshine at least, with high pressure building in. Another weak disturbance moves through on Saturday with some clouds and just a slight chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. After a little clearing Saturday night clouds will stream back in during the day on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. That system will bring in more showers on Monday, but it will be quite a bit milder, with some places possibly getting close to or over 60 degrees.

Monday has the potential to be a very mild day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers likely this evening, then skies start to clear out late at night, becoming breezy. Low 30-37.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy. High 38-45.

Friday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 19-26.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few flurries or sprinkles. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Sunday: Some sun early, then clouds stream back in. High 40-47.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing after midnight. Low 28-35, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Monday: Breezy and mild with some showers likely. High 54-61.