Weekly Outlook: November 29 – December 5, 2021

We’re into the time of the year where the models are even more useless than normal beyond a few days out.

You’re better off trusting this guy than you are trusting the models more than 3 days out at this time of year.

You’ll recall in our Weekend Outlook we talked about the potential for our first accumulating snow of the season for Sunday night into this morning. Well, before that could happen, another threat materialized for Friday night into Saturday morning that did coat the ground with snow across parts of the region, and this morning’s system was a complete dud. Having said that, much of this week looks quiet despite the pattern actually being fairly active, and we’re fairly confident in that (for now).

Low pressure pulls away from the region today with gradually clearing expected by tonight. High pressure will start to build in for tonight and Tuesday with dry and chilly conditions, but another weak disturbance will move towards the area. It will spread in some clouds on Tuesday, but little precipitation is expected, except possibly near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in on Wednesday with dry and slightly milder weather. Unfortunately more clouds are expected as another cold front approaches from the west. Some showers are likely ahead of that front on Thursday, but temperatures on Thursday should be quite mild (by early December standards), with some places topping 50. That front moves through during the afternoon, then high pressure builds back in with much cooler weather for Friday.

Temperatures could top 50 across parts of the region on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next weekend is highly uncertain right now, and this is where the unreliability of the models beyond a few days comes into the play. Some of the models are showing the possibility for a system to come through on Saturday with some light snow, others aren’t. They are also showing the potential for another system Sunday night into Monday, which could be a messy storm. At this point, it’s fair to question both what the models are showing, and the timing of these systems. So, when you get down to the detailed forecast later on the page, you’re going to see things worded as a “chance”. Obviously, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Then again, when we did last weekend’s outlook on Wednesday, we didn’t see that potential for light snow late Friday and Friday night. In other words, don’t go cancelling any plans for next weekend yet.

Saturday could see flakes or it could be dry. at this point, we’re not sure. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the morning across eastern Massachusetts. High 34-41.

Monday night: Clearing. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Some early sun, then clouds stream back in, slight chance for a shower or two near the South Coast. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: A few sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 40-47.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers early, then showers are more likely at night. High 47-54.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 38-45.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 36-43.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 34-41.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook: November 25-29, 2021

It’s coming. You know what we’re talking about. It’s that time of year. You’re not going to like it, but you’re going to have to deal with it. No, we’re not talking about the non-stop Black Friday sales ads or the constant barrage of holiday music. It’s something more insidious. That four-letter word most of you hate. It begins with the letter “S”. And it’s in this forecast.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about Thanksgiving. The high pressure area that provided us with chilly weather yesterday and today will slide offshore tonight and Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to start to move into the region. However, a strong cold front will also be approaching from the west. Thanksgiving will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will stream in and thicken up during the afternoon and evening. A few showers are likely Friday morning into early afternoon before the cold front finally moves offshore. High pressure then moves in for Saturday and Sunday with the chilly weather returning along with sunshine. By Sunday afternoon though, clouds will start to stream back into the region ahead of the next storm system.

Heading out early Saturday morning? Wind chills will only be in the teens. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A Saskatchewan Screamer (it’s not an Alberta Clipper, since it originates in Saskatchewan) will dive into the Northern Plains and across the Midwest over the weekend, and by Sunday night, it will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This much seems fairly certain. From here, there are a lot of things that we’re not terribly confident in, so we’ll give you our thoughts and best estimate right now, and will refine it this weekend, if need be. At this point, 1 of 3 things is likely to happen:

  1. The storm continues east-northeast, passing out to sea well to our south with minimal impact here.
  2. The storm turns more toward the northeast, bringing a period of light rain or snow here as it heads towards Atlantic Canada while strengthening.
  3. An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure captures the low, allowing it to hang around longer, and it brings a period of heavier snow and/or a wintry mix to the region, especially north and west of Boston.
Monday could be wet or white, or maybe even dry. The models aren’t sure yet and neither are we. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Depending on which forecast model you look at, any of these scenarios is possible. For now, we’re leaning towards scenario number 2. Precipitation should develop Sunday night and continue into Monday. It may start as rain for much of the region with snow north and west of Boston. Some sleet and/or freezing rain could mix in across the interior, with a change to all snow possible into Boston and points south as the system pulls away later on Monday. It’s WAY too early for any kind of estimate of accumulations, especially with the uncertainty in the forecast, but if (and that’s a big “if”) our thinking is in the ballpark, we’d be looking at the potential for a few inches north and west of Boston. There are some models predicting a very significant snowstorm, and you won’t have to look too hard on social media to find them, as all of the “weather weenies” are excited for the first potential “big” storm of the season. We prefer to deal with what we know, and not deal in hype. If this does look like it will materialize, we’ll have another blog post about it this weekend.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 22-29.

Thanksgiving: Morning sunshine, then clouds stream in. High 47-54.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-39.

Friday: Cloudy with some showers likely, mainly during the morning and early afternoon, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 41-48.

Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Low 23-30.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 20-27.

Sunday: Some early sun, then clouds return. High 35-42.

Sunday night: Cloudy with light snow or rain developing from southwest to northeast. Low 23-30.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of snow or a wintry mix north and west of Boston, chance of rain, possibly mixed with a little wet snow south. High 32-39 north and west of Boston, 39-46 south of Boston.

Weekly Outlook: November 22-28, 2021

The weather shouldn’t impact any Thanksgiving travel plans you might have, but that doesn’t mean the entire week will be quiet.

We’re starting the week off on a wet note with showers ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures are starting off mild, but that will change in a hurry. The front moves through by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but much cooler air will quickly settle in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a couple of very chilly days. While most of us will have sunshine to go with the cool weather, it could be a different story across parts of the Cape and Islands. As the chilly air comes in on north to northeast winds, it will move over the still-relatively mild waters of the Atlantic. This may result in some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. This is far from definite, and accumulations, if any, would be very minor, but don’t be surprised if flakes are flying in places like Truro or Chatham later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tuesday afternoon will feature wind chills in the 20s and lower 30s. Image provided by Weatherbell.

The high slides off to the east of Thanksgiving Day, allowing milder air to move back into the region. Another cold front approaches from the west on Friday, another round of showers is expected. Even colder air returns behind that front for next week. With an upper-level low moving across the Northeast at the same time we’ll have some clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers popping up.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 40 on Sunday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy with showers ending by early afternoon. High 51-58 in the morning, then temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Monday night: Gradual clearing late at night. Low 25-32.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 35-42.

Tuesday night: Clear skies, except clouds and possibly some snow showers over the Outer Cape. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 36-43.

Thanksgiving Day: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 48-55.

Friday: Cloudy with showers likely, mainly in the morning, some afternoon sunny breaks may develop. High 42-49.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 36-43.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Weekend Outlook: November 19-22, 2021

Hope you enjoyed the mild weather today, because it’ll be a distant memory by tomorrow.

Normal high temperatures in mid-November are within a degree or two of 50. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A cold front will move across the region tonight, bringing some showers with it, but it will also sweep our mild weather offshore and replace it with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November. An upper-level disturbance moves across the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower, but with high pressure building in at the surface, it will turn drier and cooler. That high keeps us dry and cool on Saturday, but clouds will start streaming in late in the day ahead of the next storm system. A warm front moves through on Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate again, but some showers or even a period of steady rain is likely Sunday night into Monday as another cold front approaches the region.

Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 33-40.

Friday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy, but clouds may pop up during the afternoon. High 42-49.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 24-31.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to increase again late in the day. High 40-47.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-37.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, showers may develop late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday night: Periods of rain and showers, breezy. Low 42-49 in the evening, then temperatures rise a bit at night.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with showers ending. High 52-59.

Weekly Outlook: November 15-21, 2021

Much of the upcoming week should be fairly quiet and on the cool side, but there are some exceptions.

The week starts of with low pressure moving into southeastern Canada while an upper-level low pressure system moves into the Northeast. A few showers are possible behind the departing surface system, but with the upper-level system moving in, we’ll see plenty of clouds, and possibly another shower or two. Across the hills of central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire, those showers could have some wet snow mixed in. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with sunshine and cool temperatures. Clouds will start to move back in on Wednesday ahead of a warm front, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of shower activity with this front.

Normal high temperatures are within a degree or two of 50 in mid-November. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday looks like it will be quite a mild day by November standards, with many locations topping 60 degrees. However, a cold front will be approaching from the west, so some showers are likely by late in the day and especially at night. Could some wet snow mix in as colder air rushes in early Friday morning before the rain all moves offshore? Sure it’s possible, especially well north and west of Boston. Another upper-level disturbance moves through on Friday with more clouds and possibly a rain or snow shower. High pressure returns on Saturday, then clouds stream back in on Sunday ahead of yet another weak storm system, with some showers possible by late in the day.

Thursday looks quite mild. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Early clouds, maybe a shower, then sunshine develops, but clouds return in the afternoon ad possibly another shower. possibly mixed with some snow across the interior hills. High 43-50.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear and breezy. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy at times. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 46-53.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, and mild with showers developing at night. High 59-66.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, and cooler, showers end in the morning, possibly mixed with some wet snow well north and west of Boston. High 43-50.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 39-46.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chance for showers late in the day. High 45-52.

Weekend Outlook: November 12-15, 2021

Our recent stretch of dry weather is coming to an end and temperatures are going to turn cooler. There’s also the potential that a few spots in the area could see some of that s-word on Monday. You know which word I’m talking about. It’s definitely November.

High pressure slides offshore tonight as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. A frontal system well ahead of that low will approach the region on Friday. Showers will develop Friday morning, with a period of steady, and perhaps heavy, rain likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder as well. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will result in a mild day with many places topping 60 degrees. The front moves through in the evening, bringing an end to the rain, with skies clearing out overnight.

Most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain across parts of the region on Friday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Saturday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds quickly return. That low pressure system will move into southern Canada, but a disturbance rotating around it will bring in a few more showers Saturday night. Skies will clear out again behind that on Sunday, but much cooler air will start to settle in. We’re not done with that low pressure system though. Another disturbance will rotate around it Sunday night and Monday, and it will trigger another weak system that will bring in some more showers for Sunday night and Monday. With the cooler air in place, we could even see a few wet snowflakes mix in, especially across the hills from central Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 50 on Sunday across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, some drizzle or a few showers may develop towards daybreak. Low 40-47 this evening, then temperatures may rise a little overnight.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely through early afternoon, becoming a steady and potential heavy rain for the mid-to-late afternoon hours. High 57-64.

Friday night: Showers end during the evening, followed by clearing after midnight. Low 37-44.

Saturday: Mostly sunny through midday, clouds start to move back in during the afternoon with showers possible by late in the day. High 54-61.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with some showers likely during the evening, then clearing after midnight. Low 32-39.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, clouds return during the afternoon. High 45-52.

Sunday night: Cloudy with showers developing after midnight, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. Low 33-40.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow across the interior hills. High 44-51.

Weekly Outlook: November 8-14, 2021

After some recent chilly weather we’re going to start to warm back up and it will remain dry, but not for the entire week.

We start the week off with high pressure in control providing us with sunshine and milder temperatures into Tuesday. A weak system will pass to our north Tuesday night, sending in some clouds and possibly a shower or two, but the bulk of the rain should stay well to our north. Drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but the end of the week is when the changes happen.

Temperatures could top 60 across much of the region on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes on Friday after bringing some snow to parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. A frontal system will be located well ahead of that low, sending some showers out way for Friday. A secondary area of low pressure will develop along the front, bringing in another round of rain for Friday night into Saturday. and this batch could be heavy. Everything should push offshore by Saturday evening, with drier and cooler conditions settling in for next Sunday. A much cooler weather pattern may set up for next week, possibly hanging around for quite a while.

Parts of the region could see more than an inch of rain at the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Some morning clouds, otherwise becoming mostly sunny. High 53-60.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower late at night. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Early clouds and possibly a shower, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 55-62.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 51-58.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, becoming a steady rain at night. High 57-64.

Saturday: Periods of rain and showers, ending in the afternoon. High 55-62.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 48-55.

Weekend Outlook: November 5-8, 2021

We’ve got a fairly easy forecast coming up for the next several days, so let’s get right to it.

High pressure will build in and keep the region dry and cool into the weekend, with some moderation expected by the end of the weekend and start of next week as the high slides offshore. There are only two potential flies in the ointment. We’ve got a low pressure area passing south and east of the region late tonight and Friday. It may pass close enough to spread a few showers into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts, but the vast majority of the region will stay dry. Whether or not there are clouds (and/or some light rain), will have a big impact on temperatures. Areas north and west of Boston should radiate tonight, with lows dropping well into the 30s, perhaps even some 20s again. Across southeastern Massachusetts, clouds and possibly rain will keep temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. If the storm is farther offshore, then the clouds likely will be too, resulting in temperatures ending up a little cooler than what this forecast shows. Another system will pass offshore late Sunday night and Monday. This system looks to be even farther offshore, so it shouldn’t be much of a concern.

Temperatures could get back to 60 by Monday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers across Cape Cod. Low 28-35, except 36-43 across Cape Cod and parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Friday: Chance for a shower across the Cape during the morning, otherwise skies gradually become partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Low 26-33.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 47-54.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 28-35.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 49-56.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 33-40.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and milder. High 53-60.

Weekly Outlook: November 1-7, 2021

Much of the upcoming week is going to dry but it will get progressively cooler.

A cold front will cross the region with little fanfare today, but temperatures will remain on the mild side. Another weak front moves through on Tuesday with just a few showers accompanying it, but temperatures will turn a little cooler once again. Another weak disturbance moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare, but again, temperatures will turn a little cooler behind it as well. A weak system will pass by to the south Thursday into Friday, possibly close enough for a few showers south of Boston, but the flow around it will bring even cooler weather into the area. High pressure then builds in next weekend.

Temperatures will be below normal for much of the upcoming week. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 54-61.

Monday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, slight chance for a shower. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Clearing. Patchy frost is possible. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 47-54.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two south of Boston late in the day and at night. High 45-52.

Friday: Chance for an early shower south of Boston, then becoming partly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 48-55.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 48-55.