Weekly Outlook: February 27 – March 5, 2023

We’ve got a rather turbulent week coming up across the region.

High pressure will be in control to start the week, with a mostly dry Monday, but a storm system is on the way. Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and head up the St. Lawrence Valley while weakening. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head eastward. We’ll be in between the two, which means some light to perhaps moderate snow developing Monday night continuing into Tuesday. The Tuesday morning commute is going to be rough, so plan accordingly. As temperatures rise to near or above freezing, we may see a change to rain, especially across southeastern Massachusetts, possibly into the Boston area. So, the afternoon commute may not be as bad, especially south of Boston. The snow winds down during the evening. Despite earlier model predictions and internet hype, this will NOT be a big storm. In general, most of us will see 2-5″ of accumulation, perhaps a little less along the coast, perhaps a little more near the hills from northwestern Rhode Island into central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire.

This will be a light to moderate snowstorm for the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Wednesday starts off dry, but another weak disturbance moves through late in the day with a few rain or snow showers possible. Another system quickly follows for Thursday, but this one looks warmer, as it will pass north of the region, so some rain showers are expected, maybe some freezing rain as you head up into central New Hampshire. That system moves offshore Thursday evening, then high pressure builds in, but it doesn’t hang around for too long. Yet another system quickly follows for late Friday into Saturday. There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this one, but it looks to pass near or just south of the region, so more snow is possible, or perhaps a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. Obviously, we’ll have a better idea of what this storm will bring (we hope), but the time we get around to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday. Yet another weak disturbance may bring in some snow showers Saturday night and early Sunday before high pressure builds back in.

The models have differing ideas on the potential for a storm late Friday and Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning sun, clouds return in the afternoon. High 30-37.

Monday night: Cloudy with snow developing. Low 21-28, temperatures may rise a little after midnight.

Tuesday: Breezy with snow likely, possibly mixing with rain south of Boston. High 33-40.

Tuesday night: Snow (or rain), ending in the evening, some clearing after midnight. Low 22-29.

Wednesday: Some morning sun, clouds move back in during the afternoon, snow or rain showers possible in the evening. High 40-47.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild with rain showers likely. High 46-53.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, snow, sleet, rain developing late in the day, becoming windy at night. High 35-42.

Saturday: Wintry mix ending in the morning, some sunny breaks in the afternoon, then some more snow showers possible at night, windy. High 32-39.

Sunday: Some morning snow showers, becoming partly sunny, breezy. High 34-41.

Weekend Outlook: February 24-27, 2023

Winter has finally arrived, and it looks like it may hang around for a while.

Most of the snow overnight fell north of the Mass Pike. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

The second half of our double-barreled low pressure system will move across the region this evening and tonight, with another round of sleet, freezing rain, possibly some light snow, and plain rain near the South Coast. This round of precipitation should be light, and done shortly after midnight. A strong cold front moves through Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers. We’ll gradually clear out behind it in the afternoon, but strong northwest winds will usher much cooler air in, with temperatures dropping during the day. High pressure settles in Friday night, resulting in a rather chilly night, with lows dropping into the single numbers, possibly below zero in some of the colder spots, especially into southern New Hampshire. There will still be some wind around, so wind chills will drop below zero. Saturday will be a chilly day, but clouds will quickly return and thicken up as a weak disturbance moves through, possibly producing a few snow showers. Another weak system moves through on Sunday, with a few more snow or rain showers possible, then drier weather returns for Sunday night and early Monday. Clouds move back in during the day on Monday ahead of yet another storm system.

Wind chills likely will be below zero for much of the region when you wake up Saturday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We don’t normally go beyond Monday on the Weekend Outlook, but wanted to address the next storm system currently expected to move in for Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the forecast models have shown the potential for a sizeable snowstorm around here on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the model snow maps have spread like wildfire across the internet. The thing is, right now, it’s just that – potential. The potential storm is still 5 days away, and the forecast models have been horrendous beyond about 2 or 3 days, so why should we trust the models with a 5-day forecast? The Ensembles also show the potential for a snowstorm, but a light to perhaps moderate one, not the blockbuster storm some of the operational models are showing. Yes, this winter has been fairly non-existent until the last few days, but a well-advertised pattern change has taken place. That doesn’t mean that suddenly every storm is going to be all snow (the current one isn’t). We’ll obviously have a lot more detail in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning, but for now, don’t get too concerned about the chance for a blizzard on Tuesday. Certainly you should be prepared for a storm (it is winter in New England after all), but if there’s cause for concern, we’ll let you know.

Many of the 31 members of the GFS Ensemble show only a light to moderate snowstorm Tuesday, highlighting the uncertainty with that system. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Cloudy with a wintry mix of light snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain near the South Coast, ending after midnight. Low 19-26 north of the Mass Pike, 27-34 south of the Pike during the evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Friday: Clouds with some afternoon sunny breaks, windy, a few stray snow showers are possible in the morning. High 31-38 in the morning, temperatures drop through the afternoon.

Friday night: Clearing, except across the Outer Cape, breezy, and cold. Low 3-10.

Saturday: Becoming cloudy with a few flurries possible. High 19-26.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8-15.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. High 34-41.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 15-22.

Monday: Early sun, then increasing clouds. High 32-39.

Weekly Outlook: February 20-26, 2023

An active weather pattern will bring many changes to our weather this week.

We start off the week with a little rain across southeastern Massachusetts behind a departing disturbance. The rest of the day will be mild, but a cold front will swing through this afternoon with the chance for a few showers. We’ll clear out for a little while tonight behind that front, but clouds quickly return on Tuesday ahead of another disturbance. This one will bring in some more showers on Tuesday, but some snow could mix in, especially from the Merrimack Valley into southern and central New Hampshire. Accumulations won’t amount to much, but an inch or so is possible in southern New Hampshire. The real changes start on Wednesday.

A little bit of snow is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

A double-barreled low pressure will move out of the Great Lakes and head toward the region later Wednesday into Thursday and early Friday. This will bring a variety of weather in. Precipitation will move in late Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely start as snow for much of the region, with a wintry mix or rain likely near the South Coast. Warmer air will move in aloft, eventually changing the precipitation to sleet and freezing rain. A change to plain rain is likely near the South Coast, but temperatures may stay below freezing across much of the remainder of the region, with a prolonged period of sleet and/or freezing rain possible Wednesday night and early Thursday. We may get a bit of a break Thursday afternoon before the second part of the system moves in with more mixed precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is the potential for several inches of snow before the changeover Wednesday night and Thursday morning, especially north of the Mass Pike, but this is highly uncertain at this point. Either way, the Thursday morning commute will be a mess.

The Thursday morning commute has the potential to be ugly around here. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in for late Friday and Saturday with some chilly weather, then another system quickly follows late Saturday into Sunday with a chance for some more light snow, possibly mixed with rain, especially near the South Coast.

Saturday morning could be rather chilly around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers during the afternoon, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 51-58.

Monday night: Partly cloudy through the evening, clouds move back in late at night. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler with some rain or snow showers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Clearing, breezy. Low 24-31.

Wednesday: Early sun, then clouds return, snow and sleet developing at night. High 37-44.

Thursday: Snow changing to sleet and freezing rain, plain rain south of Boston, breezy. High 25-32 north of the Mass Pike, 33-40 south of the Pike.

Friday: Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain ending early, some late-day clearing, windy. High 30-37.

Saturday: Partly sunny and chilly, clouds thicken up in the afternoon, light snow developing at night, mixed with rain near the South Coast. High 23-30.

Sunday: Snow or rain ending early, some late-day clearing, breezy. High 36-43.

Weekend Outlook: February 17-20, 2023

We’re in an active pattern right now, with lots of rapid-fire changes coming over the next few days.

Low pressure will cross central New England on Friday. Ahead of it, we’ll remain quite mild in Friday morning, but some showers likely tonight. They’ll become more numerous on Friday as the low drags a strong cold front across the region during the morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will send temperatures downward fairly quickly Friday afternoon. The rain should come to an end during the evening, but enough colder air may work in that the rain could mix with or change to wet snow before ending across southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley. We’ll clear out late Friday night, then high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures start to moderate on Sunday as the high slides offshore, but clouds will also move in as a weak upper-level disturbance moves toward the area. It may produce a few showers Sunday night and early Monday, mainly across Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Another disturbance passes by late Monday and Monday night with a few more showers possible as it drags a cold front through late in the day.

Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon behind a cold front. Loop provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Cloudy and mild with some showers likely. Low 43-50 this evening, temperatures may rise a bit overnight.

Friday: Scattered showers, possibly mixing with wet snow late in the day north of Route 2, becoming windy and much cooler in the afternoon. High 55-62 in the morning (cooler across the NH Seacoast), temperatures drop sharply in the afternoon.

Friday night: Rain or snow showers end in the evening, skies start to clear out late at night, breezy. Low 18-25.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 34-41.

Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24-31.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. High 42-49.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 33-40.

Monday: More clouds than sun, chance for a few showers. High 48-55.

Weekly Outlook: February 13-19, 2023

We’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up with some rather mild weather on the way once again.

Normal high temperatures for mid-February are in the middle to upper 30s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

We start the week off with low pressure pulling away from the region. Any lingering showers across Cape Cod will end this morning, but skies will remain cloudy. An upper-level disturbance moves through tonight with more clouds, and possibly a few snow showers, mainly north of Route 2. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with clearing and mild temperatures. The warming trend will continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs on Thursday possibly setting some records with temperatures topping 60 in some spots. Wednesday will remain dry, but some rain will develop later on Thursday as low pressure heads toward the St. Lawrence Valley. The rain will end on Friday as the system drags a strong cold front across the region. The timing of this front is a huge question mark right now, and that will have a significant impact on the temperature forecast. The later the front moves through, the more likely we have another warm day with more record highs possible. An earlier frontal passage results in a cooler day. Either way, high pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and much cooler conditions.

Record highs could be challenged across the region again on Thursday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, any lingering showers near the South Coast and Cape Cod end in the morning. High 40-47.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few snow showers or flurries, mainly north of Route 2. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 42-49.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, then clouds increase once again. Low 26-33.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, windy. High 49-56.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely late in the day and at night. High 58-65, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending, some late-day clearing, windy. High 52-59, temperatures drop during the afternoon.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, and cooler. High 32-39.

Sunday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 44-51.

Weekend Outlook: February 10-13, 2023

As we get into Super Bowl Weekend, the weather won’t be that bad, especially compared to what could happen during early February around here.

Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes tonight, sending a warm front through, with some showers likely ahead of it. The showers should end before daybreak as the storm sends a cold front across the region, but the airmass behind the front isn’t that cold. In fact, it’s actually warmer, so with some sunshine developing on Friday, we’ll actually have a rather warm day, with some record highs possible across our area. A stronger cold front moves through late in the day, with gusty northwest winds ushering more seasonable air in. High pressure builds in for Saturday with sunshine and cool temperatures. It’ll remain breezy in the morning, so it may be a little on the cool side for the morning outdoor activities, but winds will diminish in the afternoon. Sunday starts off nice, but clouds will stream in ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some of the models have the precipitation from that system move into the region, possibly as far north as the Mass Pike, others barely get it to the South Coast. If it does make it this far north, temperatures could be close to freezing, so we could be dealing with a little snow or sleet as well. We are expecting most of the precipitation to stay offshore, but obviously we’ll keep an eye on things.

Some record highs could be challenged on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Showers likely, ending around midnight, breezy. Low 37-44 this evening, then temperatures rise overnight.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, windy, and mild. High 55-62.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, breezy. Low 26-33.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy early, winds diminish in the afternoon. High 36-43.

Saturday night: Clear skies, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 19-26.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, showers possible near the South Coast late in the day. High 41-48.

Sunday night: Cloudy with a chance for showers, mainly near the South Coast. Low 27-34.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, any showers ending in the morning. High 38-45.

Weekly Outlook: February 6-12, 2023

Today marks the 45th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978. Nothing remotely similar is expected this week.

The Blizzard of 78 is still the storm that all snowstorms are compared to across this region. Image provided by NOAA.

We start the week off with a few showers across Cape Cod as low pressure passes well to the south of the region. Despite the cloudcover, and it’ll be another mild day. Tuesday will be a little cooler as high pressure builds in, but temperatures will remain above normal for early February. Another front approaches at night with some rain or snow showers possible. High pressure returns for Wednesday with dry and mild conditions once again. Another system moves in on Thursday with more rain, possibly starting as a little sleet or snow north and west of Boston. Friday looks to be quite mild with partial sunshine, but another system quickly follows for Friday night into early Saturday with more rain, possibly some snow well north and west of Boston. High pressure builds back in on Sunday.

Monday: More clouds than sun any lingering showers across the Cape and Islands end early, becoming breezy. High 43-50.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy, breezy. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Early sun, then clouds return. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with a few rain or snow showers possible during the evening, clearing late at night, breezy. Low 27-34.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 44-51.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly mixed with snow to start well north and west of Boston, breezy. High 44-51.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy. High 50-57.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy. more showers, possibly mixed with snow, especially north and west of Boston. High 38-45.

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 33-40.

Weekend Outlook: February 3-6, 2023

Some rather cold air is on the way for the next couple of days, but it’s stay should be rather short.

Saturday morning will be the coldest morning we’ve had around here in several years. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

A strong cold front will cross the region late tonight, possibly accompanied by a few flurries or snow showers. Behind it, gusty northwest winds will usher some arctic air into the New England. This is likely some of the coldest air we’ve had around in several years, so make sure you are prepared for it if you have to go outside. Temperatures will likely have dropped into the teens and lower 20s by the time most of you get out of bed Friday morning, and they will continue to drop during the day despite sunshine. Temperatures will be in the single numbers by evening, and below zero for near the entire region at night. Wind chills will drop below zero during Friday afternoon, and with northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting to 40 mph at times, we’ll see wind chills in the -20 to -40 range Friday night and early Saturday. Temperatures bottom out in the -5 to -15 range Saturday morning, but it will remain breezy, so we’ll still be dealing with bitterly cold wind chills in the morning. Winds will diminish during the day on Saturday, but temperatures will only slowly rise. The good news is that high pressure will slide offshore, allowing winds to shift into the south and southwest, so temperatures will start to moderate, likely rising all through the night Saturday night, but we’ll also have some clouds starting to move in as a frontal system begins to approach from the west. By Sunday, temperatures will be above normal again, likely reaching 40 for most of us. A few showers are possible Sunday night as the frontal system moves through and another passes well to the south, then we’ll see some sunshine and mild temperatures again on Monday.

Wind chills will bottom out in the -20 to -40 range before daybreak Saturday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, slight chance for a snow shower, breezy. Low 13-20.

Friday: Mostly sunny, windy and turning sharply colder, chance for a few snow showers across the Outer Cape. High 13-20 early, temperatures drop during the day.

Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, windy, and bitterly cold. Low -6 to -13.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, clouds start to filter in later in the day, breezy in the morning. High 11-18.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming breezy again late at night. Low 8-15 during the evening, temperatures rise overnight.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds, windy, and milder. High 39-46.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for a few showers across Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Low 27-34.

Monday: Morning clouds and possibly a few showers in southeastern Massachusetts give way to some afternoon sun, breezy. High 41-48.