Weekly Outlook: January 24-30, 2022

Another chilly week is expected, but trouble could be lurking next weekend.

A dry, but chilly day is expected today as high pressure builds in, but it won’t stay that way for long. An Alberta Clipper will be heading this way, sending clouds back in late today, with some snow showers late tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures may be marginally warm enough to change the snow to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast. Any accumulation should be an inch or less. Once that system moves by, high pressure builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday with much colder weather once again. Another weak system may bring in a few snow showers on Friday as temperatures moderate a bit. This brings us to next weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the upcoming week, but the coldest air will stay to our north and west. Image provided by WeatherBell.

For several days now, the models have been indicating the potential for a significant storm system somewhere near the East Coast around Saturday, January 29. We’ve mentioned more times than we can count that the models aren’t trustworthy beyond about 2 or 3 days right now, but they have all had the same signal for quite some time, which gives us increased confidence that there will be some sort of storm, and it will probably be potent. However, models are showing little consistency beyond that in terms of how strong it will be, where it will track, what areas (if any) it might impact, and what impacts (if any) that it will have. At this point, everything is on the table, from a swing and a miss with the storm heading out to sea, to an inland runner, where we end up on the warm side with heavy rain and mild temperatures, to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain with the storm tracking right over us, to a full-fledged blizzard with the classic track right up the coast. Depending on which model you look at, and which run of that model, they have all indicated any and all of these scenarios at one point over the past several days. So, at this point, it is impossible to make a forecast, because frankly, we just don’t know, and probably won’t have a better idea of what to expect until at least mid-week. By the time we issue our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, we *should* have a decent idea of what will happen, but even that isn’t definite. So, stay tuned….

This is the last 5-days worth of forecasts from the GFS model that are all valid for this Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 27-34.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some snow showers possible. Low 18-25, temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with morning snow showers, possibly mixed with rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod, some afternoon sunny breaks develop. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 12-19.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 19-26.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 22-29.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 32-39.

Saturday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 24-31.

Weekend Outlook: January 21-24, 2022

We’ve actually got a fairly simple, but cold, forecast coming up for the next several days.

A cold front crossed the region earlier today, and that cold air will continue to rush in tonight, resulting in a very chilly night as skies clear out across parts of the area. High pressure builds in for Friday with sunshine and cold temperatures, except across Cape Cod where northerly winds blowing over the relatively mild ocean will result in some ocean-effect snow showers. Another chilly night is likely Friday night, but as winds turn more into the northeast, some of those ocean-effect snow showers could move into parts of Plymouth County. Saturday remains mostly sunny but not quite as chilly, though we will still have some ocean-effect snow showers across Cape Cod and parts of Plymouth County. Temperatures start to moderate a bit on Sunday (but will remain chilly), then another cold front moves through late Sunday, bringing colder air back in for Monday.

Ocean-effect snow could produce an inch or two across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 0-7 north and west of Boston, 8-15 south of Boston, milder across Cape Cod.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, except cloudy with some snow showers across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 17-24.

Friday night: Cloudy with some snow showers across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Low -2 to +5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, milder across Cape Cod.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some snow showers across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 21-28.

Saturday night: Plenty of clouds. Low 8-15.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 28-35.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 11-18.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 24-31.

Weekly Outlook: January 17-23, 2022

The week is starting off on a very stormy note, but should quiet down later in the week.

A variety of advisories and warnings are in effect across the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will move across the region today, bringing a variety of hazardous conditions in, mainly during the morning hours. Some heavy rain is likely through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon as an occluded front moves across the region. Some strong winds are also likely this morning, especially near the coast, where gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. In addition, some coastal flooding is likely around high tide, due to the combination of strong onshore winds and already astronomically high tides. Notice what we didn’t mention? Snow. Any snow will be confined to areas well north and west of Boston, and likely will have changed to rain and/or ended by the time most of you read this.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph along the coast this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

During the afternoon it will still be breezy, but winds won’t be nearly as strong as they are in the morning. A cold front will move through by evening as the low passes by to our north, and that front could be accompanied by some rain or snow showers. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with sunshine, but it will be breezy and turning colder once again. The cold air will be short-lived as another weak system approaches for Wednesday. As this system moves through, we could see some rain or snow showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds back in for Thursday and Friday, with a return to much colder weather, though not likely as cold as we had earlier this past weekend. As we head into next weekend, we’ll be keeping our eyes on a potential coastal storm. While some models have shown the potential for it to impact us next weekend, at this point, the more likely scenario is that it stays offshore with little impact, and high pressure continues to build in, keeping us dry and cold. As usual, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we publish our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Friday looks like it will be another very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Windy with snow across the interior changing to rain early, elsewhere rain, heavy at times in the morning, ending by early afternoon. Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds in the afternoon. High 41-48 in the morning, temperatures start to drop in the afternoon.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the evening. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 23-30.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 8-15.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few snow or rain showers late in the day and at night. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, any lingering snow showers end early. High 31-38.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, except mostly cloudy across Cape Cod with a few snow showers possible. High 17-24.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 21-28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 14-17, 2022

We’ve got a lot going on over the next few days across the region, and you probably won’t like most of it.

A storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, and rapidly strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing well south and east of the region on Friday. However, it will be close enough to spread some rain and strong winds into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. At the same time, a cold front will drop down from the northwest, ushering arctic air back into the region. This may allow the rain to change to snow before it ends. Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon and evening as gusty northwest to north winds continue to send the arctic air in. Any surfaces that are wet from the rain across southeastern Massachusetts will quickly freeze up Friday afternoon and evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out that evening.

Northerly winds may gusts to 35-45 mph on Friday, ushering arctic air into the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll drop into the single numbers by Saturday morning, with some subzero lows north and west of Boston. With strong winds, wind chills will be well below zero Friday night and Saturday morning, so dress appropriately if you’ll be outside. Saturday looks to be a day similar to this past Tuesday with sunshine and some afternoon clouds, possibly a few snow showers across Cape Cod, and temperatures struggling to reach the lower to middle teens. Winds die down Saturday night, resulting in another chilly night, with subzero lows possible once again. Sunday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon as temperatures start to moderate. This brings us to the complicated part of the forecast.

With wind chills like this, Saturday morning will be a good time to stay inside. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast and make its way up the East Coast on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track that the storm will take, but for now it looks like it may stay near the coast or just inland, passing directly over, or just west, of our area on Monday, though this is subject to change. This track would result in snow changing to sleet and/or freezing rain and then plain rain across much of the area. However, this is far from a guarantee. There are still some models that bring the storm a little farther south and east, which would result in more snow and less rain, but as we’ve mentioned numerous times, the models have been less than trustworthy beyond 2 or 3 days recently. When (or if) a change to mix and/or rain occurs will also have a significant impact on how much snow accumulates. Given the amount of uncertainty, it’s still WAY too early to try and pin down any potential accumulations, but it’s safe to say that the farther north and west of Boston you are, the better the chance you’ll need to fire up the snowblower or find your shovels. We’ll try to post an update this weekend, once we have some better clarity on the storm.

There is plenty of uncertainty in regards to storm for Sunday/Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain may develop across Cape Cod towards daybreak. Low 26-33.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, rain likely across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, possibly changing to snow before ending, becoming windy. High 35-42, but temperatures will start to quickly drop in the afternoon.

Friday night: Clearing, windy, and much colder, except partly cloudy with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. Low -3 to +4, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and very cold, except partly sunny with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. High 10-17.

Saturday night: Clear skies with diminishing winds. Low -2 to +5, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Sunday: Sunshine to start the day, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 23-30.

Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow developing, possibly rain across Cape Cod. Low 14-21.

Monday: Snow, possibly changing to sleet/freezing rain/rain, especially the farther south and east you go. High 39-46.

Weekly Outlook: January 10-16, 2022

Dig out the thermals and heavy winter gear, some really cold air is on the way.

Temperatures will turn colder today despite some sunshine, but this is just the opening act for what is on the way. An arctic cold front will cross the region this evening. It may produce some snow showers or squalls, so if you’ll be out this evening, be prepared for a short burst of snow that could significantly reduce visibility and drop a quick coating on the roads. Once the front moves offshore, bitterly cold air will flood into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop below zero in parts of the region Tuesday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine Tuesday afternoon, highs may struggle to reach the lower teens across most of the area, with wind chills that are below zero. Across Cape Cod, there may not be as much sunshine, as northwest winds blowing over the relatively mild water of Cape Cod Bay could produce some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. We’ll have another bitterly cold night Tuesday night, with subzero lows possible once again, but as high pressure slides off to the east on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate. It’ll still be chilly, but highs should get into the 30s across the area.

Wind chills could be well below zero Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Temperatures will turn colder again for the end of the week, but there are bigger concerns. We’ve cautioned you recently that the models have performed rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days, and that is still the case, so this part of the forecast is highly uncertain. However, many models are showing the potential for a powerful ocean storm to develop late Thursday into Friday, and a second storm to do the same over the weekend. The fact that they all show this gives us a little more confidence that they both may actually develop. The problem is, that’s about all they agree on. They don’t agree on the timing of the storms, the track they might take, how strong they’ll get, and what, if any, impacts they may have up here. These are things that we’ll be keeping a close eye on as the week goes by, but for now, what you read below is our “best guess” (for lack of a better term), but it is very low confidence.

The models all have different ideas about a potential coastal storm on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 23-30.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and breezy, some snow showers or squalls are possible during the evening. Low -2 to 5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20 by daybreak.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and very cold, except partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 8-15, with wind chills below zero.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low -2 to +5.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and milder. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35-42.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for some light snow or snow showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 28-35.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High 21-28.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a chance of snow, especially in eastern Massachusetts. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 7-10, 2022

Our first snowstorm of the season is on the way for Friday, but it’s just part of a colder pattern we’re heading into for the weekend and beyond.

A variety of advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect across the region. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, and it will head east-northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, passing south and east of New England on Friday as it intensifies. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning, which will result in significant problems for the morning commute. The snow should come to an end by mid-afternoon across the region. Based on the trends in the models since last night, we are adjusting our snowfall forecast upwards a bit, but not that much. Here’s our latest projections:

Southern NH: 3-5″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 3-6″
MetroWest/I-495 Belt: 4-7″
I/95 corridor/SE Mass/RI: 5-8″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-6″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Blend of Models is closest to our thinking right now, but it may be a bit on the high side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm pulls away Friday evening, and skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but rather chilly Saturday, with many places likely staying in the 20s all day. With clear skies and fresh snowcover, temperatures will quickly plunge Saturday evening into the teens and possibly single numbers in some spots. Clouds stream back in late Saturday night as another system moves toward the region. While this system looks a bit milder, with southerly winds warming things up a bit on Sunday, the models have been trending less mild with every run. With that in mind, we’ll probably see some snow showers or a little freezing rain develop north and west of Boston Sunday afternoon, changing to rain by evening. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, just plain rain is expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow before winding down around daybreak Monday. After that, some of the coldest air thus far this winter will pour into the region. Temperatures may not rise much, if at all, Monday afternoon. The coldest weather looks to arrive on Tuesday, when highs may stay in the teens, with subzero lows possible Tuesday night. We’ll have more info on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Tuesday looks like a very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing 2-5am. Low 23-30.

Friday: Breezy with snow, possibly heavy at times in the morning, ending 12-3pm. High 28-35.

Friday night: Clearing, colder. Low 11-18.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, chilly. High 24-31.

Saturday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 10-17, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely in the afternoon, possibly starting as snow or freezing rain north and west of Boston. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Showers changing to snow showers before ending by daybreak. Low 22-29.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. Temperatures hold steady or drop a bit during the day.

Did Someone Say Snow?

We haven’t had much of the flaky white stuff yet this winter, but that’s going to change on Friday.

Very little snow has fallen across much of the region so far this winter. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

A low pressure area currently moving across the Pacific Northwest will make its way across the country over the next 24-36 hours, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night, passing south and east of New England Friday morning. The system will be moving fairly quickly, and while it will become a rather potent storm as it heads into Atlantic Canada, it won’t be that strong when it passes New England. This means that we’re looking at a light to perhaps moderate snowstorm across the region on Friday. For the most part, this will be mostly snow across the region, with any rain mixing in likely confined to the Outer Cape and Islands. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect on Friday from 1am until 1pm for all of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts (not including Cape Cod) as well as the Boston area

The ECMWF shows the quick progression of the storm Thursday night and Friday. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.

First, we’ll talk about the timing, which isn’t optimal. The snow will likely develop across the region between 3 and 5am, which means it will have a significant impact on the morning commute. For the most part, the snow will be light, but there will be a few embedded steadier bursts of snow through the morning. The snow should wind down and end between 12 and 3 pm, so it could have an impact on the afternoon commute, but the roads should be in good shape by that point as long as crews have been keeping up with it all day.

As for how much to expect, as we already mentioned, this won’t be a big deal. However, since it’s the first real widespread accumulating snow of the winter, it’ll turn into a bigger deal than it probably should be. Here’s our thinking:

Southern NH: 1-3″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 2-4″
I-95 corridor: 3-5″
Southeastern Mass/RI: 4-7″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-5″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Weather Service forecast is fairly close to ours, maybe a tad higher. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Saturday looks to be sunny but chilly, with another system bringing milder air and rain back in later Sunday into early Monday. However, it’s looking more and more like a brief but significant cold shot is coming for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. We’ll provide an update on the snow forecast in our Weekend Outlook tomorrow.

Weekly Outlook: January 3-9, 2022

A rather active pattern is expected to continue for this week, with some snow for parts of the region, possibly more than once.

The week starts off with low pressure passing south of the region today. It will be close enough to spread some light snow into the Cape and Islands, and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. Any accumulations will be confined to the Cape and Islands, with Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard possibly seeing a few inches. For the rest of us, it’ll be a cloudy and chilly day. Many places won’t get out of the 20s, and wind chills will be in the teens, so keep that in mind if you’ll be outside for any length of time today. We’ll clear out tonight as the system pulls away, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions on Tuesday. We’ll start to warm up again on Wednesday, but also will have plenty of clouds and some showers ahead of another cold front. That front moves through early on Thursday, bringing an end to the showers, and ushering cooler air back in. After that, things get very uncertain.

Most of the snow today will be confined to the Cape and Islands. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Some of the models have been hinting at the potential for coastal storm in the Thursday night/Friday time frame for quite some time now. However, since the models have downright awful beyond about 2-3 days, we haven’t bothered to look at the details too much, but have noted the potential. Well, it’s 5 days away now, and there is still plenty of disagreement as to what could happen, or if there will even be a system to affect the region. We’re of the belief that there will be a system, and it could produce some snow across at least inland locations. Beyond that, we’re not prepared to go into much more detail yet (though some of the usual internet trolls will probably be more than happy to find maps from models that show heavy snow and will share them all over Facebook and Twitter). Obviously, we’ll have a better idea as we get towards mid-week, and will elaborate more at that point, if needed.

Storm or no storm on Friday? It depends on which model you believe, if any of them. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure builds in for Saturday with dry and chilly conditions, then another system could bring in some snow or rain showers for Sunday.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, snow showers likely across the Cape and Islands. High 25-32.

Monday night: Clearing and cold. Low 11-18.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 29-36.

Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, chance for showers. High 45-52.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 35-42.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of snow or rain. High 32-39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 26-33.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with some snow or rain showers possible. High 37-44.