Weekly Outlook: January 31 – February 6, 2022

After a snowy weekend, quiet weather will settle in for a few days.

The week starts off on a rather chilly note with high pressure in control, but as it slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate for the next few days. By Wednesday, many locations could top 40 degrees. This will help to melt some of the mounds of snow across the region, but remember, with temperatures dropping below freezing at night, anything that melts will ice back up.

Wednesday could be relatively mild by early February standards. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The next storm system approaches on Thursday, and it looks a bit complicated. A cold front will bring colder air back into the region and a wave of low pressure will ride along it, possibly passing south of the region. With warmer air in place to start, we will likely see precipitation start as rain, but a change to sleet and/or freezing rain is possible, especially across the interior during Thursday night and Friday. We could see a change to snow before everything winds down Friday afternoon. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this storm later this week. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with cold and dry conditions.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 24-31.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 4-11.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 38-45.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain developing, changing to sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior. High 39-46.

Friday: Wintry mix possibly ending as snow. Temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s during the day.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 18-25.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Storm Update: Blizzard Warnings

Saturday is not going to be a pretty day around here, but most of you already knew that. There are some changes to our forecast though. Once again, we’ll start with the basics (which really haven’t changed), then work our way into the details (which have changed a bit).

Blizzard Warnings are in effect from coastal Maine to the Delmarva Peninsula. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will develop off the Southeast coast this afternoon and will head up the Eastern Seaboard tonight and Saturday, rapidly intensifying as it does so. The system will likely pass just south and east of Nantucket Saturday night, and pull away from the region on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible today as a cold front moves through, completely unrelated to the storm. What that front will do is bring colder air back in, so that we’ll be dealing with all snow across nearly all of the region, except possibly Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod.

OK, let’s get to the details. We’ll start with temperatures. North and west of Boston, temperatures will likely be in the teens for much of the storm, resulting in a fluffy snow. This will make cleanup easier, but also make it easier for accumulations to pile up quicker. South of Boston, temperatures will be in the 20s to start, but will drop during the day, so we’re also looking at a fluffier snow here as well. Across Cape Cod, temperatures will be closer to freezing, so it’ll be a wetter snow, with the possibility of rain mixing in, depending on how close the storm actually tracks. The general rule is that 1 inch of liquid equals about 10 inches of snow, which works fine with temperatures close to freezing. The colder you get, the higher the ratio gets. When temperatures drop into the teens, the ratio can get to 20:1, which means 1 inch of liquid results in 20 inches of snow. We’re not sure it’ll get that high, as there are other factors involved beyond the temperature at the ground, but it is certainly possible. The other thing to keep in mind is that the temperatures, combined with strong winds (see next paragraph), will result in very cold wind chills, so keep this in mind if you’re heading outside to do some shoveling during the storm.

Wind chills will be near or below zero across the region by Saturday evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Next, we’ll get to the winds and coastal flooding. As the storm gets cranked up south of the region, winds will pick up on Saturday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely inland, with sustained winds of 20-40 mph along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely inland, but along the coast, wind gusts of 50-70 mph seem likely, with higher gusts possible, especially across Cape Cod. Some trees and power lines could come down, so be prepared for power outages, but with a fluffier snow, there might be less widespread than you’d normally expect. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides, will result in some coastal flooding, especially at northeast and north-facing coastal areas during both the morning and evening high tides on Saturday.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph across much of the coastal plain. Image provided by WeatherBell.

With strong winds and heavy snow (more on that in a moment), blizzard conditions are expected on Saturday. If you don’t have to go out, then don’t. Whiteout conditions will make travel nearly impossible during the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for most of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as the New Hampshire Seacoast and coastal Maine.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph AND considerable falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility < ¼ for ≥ 3 hours.

Blizzard conditions need to be the predominant condition over a 3 hour period.

Official definition of a Blizzard Warning from the National Weather Service

Now to the part that you’ve all been waiting for – how much snow is going to fall? If you read our Weekend Outlook yesterday, or are a regular reader of the blog, then you know that we are normally very conservative in our snowfall forecasts – no hype here. Well, many of the forecast models continue to forecast insane snowfall totals, and most of the guys on TV are buying in. With that in mind, we are issuing an Extreme Hype Warning.

When an Extreme Hype Warning has been issued, it means you’ll see blanket coverage from the network stations around here, hourly updates even when they go to regular programming, and of course, obligatory live shots from (take your pick):

  • The side of an Interstate
  • Logan Airport
  • A local DPW salt pile
  • A beach showing the rough surf and coastal flooding
  • A Dunkin Donuts where they are talking to a plow operator
  • All of the above

You’ll also get network reports about how the snow is creating chaos in New York City, how it put Washington at a standstill (due to the 1-3 inches they’ll get), and possibly how it dumped heavy snow (a.k.a. 1 inch) on parts of the Southeast.

As for our forecast? We’re going to raise forecast amounts from what we had yesterday, but not to the levels that most of the media is forecasting. Light snow may develop by midnight along the South Coast, spreading northward over the ensuing few hours, reaching southern and central New Hampshire and southern Maine by 3-5am. Between about 10am and 7pm, it’s going to snow rather heavily. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be likely in many areas. However, there will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, with snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. If you’re under one of these bands for any length of time, your totals may end up higher than our forecast, while areas outside the band a few miles away have significantly less snowfall.

OK, we’ve rambled on enough, let’s go to the actual forecast totals:

Central NH (Lebanon/Laconia): 4-8″
Southern NH/Central MA (Concord/Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 10-15″
Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 15-20″
I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 18-24″
Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Weymouth/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 20-26″ with some totals in excess of 30″ possible.

The National Blend of Models continues to be closest to our thinking for snowfall totals. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once the storm pulls away, dry and colder conditions settle in for Sunday and Monday, before temperatures start to moderate. There are some indications for a big warmup late-week and a storm that will bring in rain, but it’s still several days away, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into that just yet,

Weekend Outlook: January 28-31, 2022

We’ve certainly got an eventful weekend coming up across the region.

Another chilly night is expected as high pressure slides offshore, but clouds will start to move in, and temperatures may actually start to rise after midnight as winds shift into the south and southwest. Friday will feature plenty of clouds and somewhat milder temperatures, but an approaching cold front may produce a few snow showers during the afternoon. This brings us to the main event.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of the coastal plain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

We’ll give you the general idea first, then get into specifics in the next paragraph or four. Low pressure will move up the East Coast Friday night and Saturday. There are still some questions as to exact track and strength, but we are narrowing the possibilities. At this point, it looks like the storm will track just south and east of Nantucket, which means that this will be all snow for everyone, except possibly Nantucket and the Outer Cape. The storm should pull away before daybreak Sunday, with clearing Sunday afternoon, then high pressure builds in with sunshine and colder weather on Monday.

There is still disagreement among the models as to how close the low gets to Nantucket. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Now, let’s get to the details of the storm. As winds shift into the northeast Friday evening, the onshore flow may produce some flurries or snow showers across the region, but these won’t do much more than whiten the ground. The steady snow will spread across the region between 2 and 5am. Between about 10am and 10pm, we’ll have snow falling moderate to heavy at times, especially near the coast and south of Boston. There will be some embedded bands of intense snowfall, falling at the rate of 1-3 inches an hour, but picking out where those will develop is a fool’s errand at this point. The snow should taper off in the evening, and end from west to east between 3 and 6am Sunday. We’ll detail the amounts in a bit, as snow is not the only concern with this system.

As the storm rapidly intensifies, winds will ramp up, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph inland, and 20-40 mph along the coast and south of Boston. Wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph are possible, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. This will result in significant blowing and drifting snow, with blizzard conditions possible. It also will increase the threat for power outages, with trees and power lines coming down. The winds, combined with astronomical high tides (Tuesday is the New Moon), will result in coastal flooding, possibly moderate to major coastal flooding, especially at east and northeast-facing coastlines.

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Another factor will be temperatures. We mentioned that this will be all snow for nearly all of the region, but it’s looking like it’ll be a fluffy snow for many of us. This is both good and bad. It’s good, because it makes it a lot easier to clean up, but bad, because it allows the snow to pile up even faster. The reason it will be a fluffy snow is because it’s going to be quite chilly. Areas north and west of Boston may stay in the teens all day Saturday, with 20s from Boston southward. Add in the strong winds, and you’re looking at wind chills in the single numbers and below zero. Keep that in mind if you’re going to try and clean up the driveway a few times during the storm.

OK, we’ve gone over the timing, the winds, the coastal flooding, the temperatures, did we miss anything? Oh yeah, how much to expect. You’ve probably seen or heard that there are many models forecasting some outrageous amounts of snow. Well, as is usually the case, you won’t find that here. Oh, we’re still expecting a rather potent storm, but if you really expect widespread 2-3 feet, then we’re going to disappoint you. Since we’re still 36 hours from the start of the storm, this could still change, and we’ll likely issue another blog post tomorrow, but here’s our current thinking:

Central NH (Lebanon/Concord): 2-6″
Southern NH/Central MA (Manchester/Nashua/Fitchburg): 5-10″
Merrimack Valley/495 Belt/NH Seacoast (Portsmouth/Haverhill/Lowell/Framingham): 8-12″
I-95 corridor (Beverly/Boston/Providence): 10-15″
Southeastern MA/Cape Cod (Brockton/Plymouth/Taunton/Fall River): 12-18″ with some totals in excess of 20″ possible.

The National Blend of Models is fairly close to our thoughts in terms of snowfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15-22, but temperatures may start to rise after midnight.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High 30-37.

Friday night: Snow showers becoming a steady light snow, becoming breezy. Low 18-25 north and west of Boston, 26-33 south.

Saturday: Windy with snow, heavy at times. Temperatures will hold steady or drop during the day.

Saturday night: Snow tapers off, ending before daybreak, winds gradually diminish. Low 3-10.

Sunday: Gradual clearing, still breezy. High 19-26.

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 2-9.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 25-32.

Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends

Yes, the rumors are true, a storm system is on the way for the weekend, and there is the potential for some significant snowfall. Nothing is definite yet though, so let’s separate the truth from the exaggeration. First, we’ll set the table for what’s going to happen.

Low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the East coast Friday into Saturday while rapidly intensifying. (You’ll hear the word bombogenesis used for sure.) Before that happens, a cold front will move across the Northeast on Friday, producing some snow showers. These are unrelated to the storm system, and could drop an inch or less on the region. That front will likely dissipate south of New England as the approaching coastal storm overwhelms it. Meanwhile, behind that front, a large high pressure system will build into southeastern Canada, locking cold air into place.

Friday’s cold front will drop less than 1″ of snow on most of the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

OK, now that we have the basic setup, let’s delve into a few things that we’ve heard or read today and how truthful they are.

Statement: An historic blizzard could set records across the Northeast this weekend.
Truth: Yes, some models are showing a rather extreme storm system with the potential for extraordinary snowfall totals. But, it’s still 4 days away, and a lot can change. This is far from a given. We’ll explain below.

Statement: This will be all snow for the entire region.
Truth: Again, given that there is still some uncertainty in the track, a mix or change to rain can’t be ruled out, especially for Cape Cod, and possibly eastern Massachusetts of Rhode Island. Again, read on for more details.

Statement: Significant coastal flooding is likely.
Truth: This one rings true. With a New Moon on Tuesday (we were that close to a Duran Duran song), tides will be running astronomically high. Add in strong east to northeast winds pounding the shoreline for 2 and potentially 3 high tide cycles, yes, coastal flooding is likely, especially the normally vulnerable locations.

OK, now let’s get into what could happen on Saturday. A rapidly intensifying storm system will head up the East Coast, producing strong winds and heavy snow ahead of it. While most of the models are fairly similar to each other with a track close to the “benchmark” (40N/70W), this is far from definite. The storm could end up farther offshore, which would limit the how far inland the heavy snow extends. The storm could also track closer to the coast, which would allow milder air to move in and change the snow to rain, how far inland the change could occur would be determined by the track obviously. This is the type of the detail that won’t become clearer for another day or two at best.

Our friends at the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA explain the potential error in the model forecast nicely.

One factor in determining that track? The upper-level energy responsible for the storm is just moving into from the Pacific tonight. Why is that important? Let us explain. Every day around the world, we send up weather balloons twice a day to sample the upper atmosphere. This is done at 00UTC and 12UTC everywhere (7am/7pm in EST). This data is then fed into the models. The upper-level energy that will create our storm has been over the Pacific for the past several days, where there is little data. In the past, we would get observations from planes as well to supplement the balloons, especially over the water, where there are no balloon launches obviously. Well, since the pandemic, air traffic is less than half what it used to be, so there are a lot less of those aircraft observations. So, we are basically at the mercy of the balloon data. Once that upper-level energy moves over land, as it is doing now, it will be into the balloon network. The models should now start to have a better idea of its structure and converge on a solution.

The kink in the flow near the British Columbia coast and the one over northern Alberta will eventually combine to create our weekend storm. Once they’re over areas with more data, we’ll have a better idea how strong they are. Image provided by the University of Wyoming.

Complicating things is the fact that some models show the system being captured by the upper-level trough of low pressure, or even getting stuck underneath a “cutoff” upper-level low pressure system. (It’s called that because it becomes cut off from the jet stream.) This would potentially allow the low to stall out south of New England for a while, prolonging the impacts to the region. How strong the storm gets (also up for debate) could determine whether or not this scenario occurs, but will also impact how strong the winds will be and in turn the amount of coastal flooding that may occur. Right now, the timing of the system looks to be generally between midnight Saturday morning and midnight Sunday morning, but obviously, this is far from definite.

The models still do not agree on the strength or location of the storm Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

As for how much snow will fall? Well, we’re not even going to attempt to put any numbers down yet. There is still FAR too much uncertainty. In addition to all the factors we talked about above, another one is temperature. Some models keep the cold air locked into place, with temperatures in the teens and 20s for much of the region during the storm. This would result in a much fluffier snow, making it a little easier to clean up, but also allowing it to pile up a lot quicker. If the warmer air does move in, especially near the coast, then temperatures could be near or even above freezing in spots. The general rule is that 1 inch of liquid precipitation equals 10 inches of snow. This holds true at temperatures close to freezing. With temperatures in the lower 20s, that 1 inch of liquid could result in 20 inches of snow. Most of the snow maps you may see online are ones that use the 10:1 ratio only, so in colder scenarios, like this one could be, they will underestimate the amount of snow.

If you really want, there are plenty of people all over Facebook, Twitter, and the web, who are more than happy to share all of those various model forecast maps, no matter how far-fetched they may seem. We’re not going to do that. We’ll just say that the potential is there for this to be a significant snowstorm.

Given all of this, we are issuing an Extreme Hype Watch for the StormHQ viewing area. An Extreme Hype Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for media hype of an event to reach extreme levels within the next 48-72 hours. If conditions warrant, a Hype Advisory or Extreme Hype Warning will be issued as the event draws nearer. We’ll hazard an initial attempt at amounts when we publish our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon. In addition, well do another full blog post on Friday.

Weekly Outlook: January 24-30, 2022

Another chilly week is expected, but trouble could be lurking next weekend.

A dry, but chilly day is expected today as high pressure builds in, but it won’t stay that way for long. An Alberta Clipper will be heading this way, sending clouds back in late today, with some snow showers late tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures may be marginally warm enough to change the snow to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast. Any accumulation should be an inch or less. Once that system moves by, high pressure builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday with much colder weather once again. Another weak system may bring in a few snow showers on Friday as temperatures moderate a bit. This brings us to next weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the upcoming week, but the coldest air will stay to our north and west. Image provided by WeatherBell.

For several days now, the models have been indicating the potential for a significant storm system somewhere near the East Coast around Saturday, January 29. We’ve mentioned more times than we can count that the models aren’t trustworthy beyond about 2 or 3 days right now, but they have all had the same signal for quite some time, which gives us increased confidence that there will be some sort of storm, and it will probably be potent. However, models are showing little consistency beyond that in terms of how strong it will be, where it will track, what areas (if any) it might impact, and what impacts (if any) that it will have. At this point, everything is on the table, from a swing and a miss with the storm heading out to sea, to an inland runner, where we end up on the warm side with heavy rain and mild temperatures, to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain with the storm tracking right over us, to a full-fledged blizzard with the classic track right up the coast. Depending on which model you look at, and which run of that model, they have all indicated any and all of these scenarios at one point over the past several days. So, at this point, it is impossible to make a forecast, because frankly, we just don’t know, and probably won’t have a better idea of what to expect until at least mid-week. By the time we issue our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, we *should* have a decent idea of what will happen, but even that isn’t definite. So, stay tuned….

This is the last 5-days worth of forecasts from the GFS model that are all valid for this Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 27-34.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some snow showers possible. Low 18-25, temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with morning snow showers, possibly mixed with rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod, some afternoon sunny breaks develop. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 12-19.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 19-26.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 22-29.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 32-39.

Saturday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 24-31.

Weekend Outlook: January 21-24, 2022

We’ve actually got a fairly simple, but cold, forecast coming up for the next several days.

A cold front crossed the region earlier today, and that cold air will continue to rush in tonight, resulting in a very chilly night as skies clear out across parts of the area. High pressure builds in for Friday with sunshine and cold temperatures, except across Cape Cod where northerly winds blowing over the relatively mild ocean will result in some ocean-effect snow showers. Another chilly night is likely Friday night, but as winds turn more into the northeast, some of those ocean-effect snow showers could move into parts of Plymouth County. Saturday remains mostly sunny but not quite as chilly, though we will still have some ocean-effect snow showers across Cape Cod and parts of Plymouth County. Temperatures start to moderate a bit on Sunday (but will remain chilly), then another cold front moves through late Sunday, bringing colder air back in for Monday.

Ocean-effect snow could produce an inch or two across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Gradual clearing, mainly north and west of Boston. Low 0-7 north and west of Boston, 8-15 south of Boston, milder across Cape Cod.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, except cloudy with some snow showers across Cape Cod and the Islands. High 17-24.

Friday night: Cloudy with some snow showers across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Low -2 to +5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, milder across Cape Cod.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some snow showers across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. High 21-28.

Saturday night: Plenty of clouds. Low 8-15.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 28-35.

Sunday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 11-18.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 24-31.

Weekly Outlook: January 17-23, 2022

The week is starting off on a very stormy note, but should quiet down later in the week.

A variety of advisories and warnings are in effect across the Northeast. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Low pressure will move across the region today, bringing a variety of hazardous conditions in, mainly during the morning hours. Some heavy rain is likely through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon as an occluded front moves across the region. Some strong winds are also likely this morning, especially near the coast, where gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. In addition, some coastal flooding is likely around high tide, due to the combination of strong onshore winds and already astronomically high tides. Notice what we didn’t mention? Snow. Any snow will be confined to areas well north and west of Boston, and likely will have changed to rain and/or ended by the time most of you read this.

Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph along the coast this morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

During the afternoon it will still be breezy, but winds won’t be nearly as strong as they are in the morning. A cold front will move through by evening as the low passes by to our north, and that front could be accompanied by some rain or snow showers. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday with sunshine, but it will be breezy and turning colder once again. The cold air will be short-lived as another weak system approaches for Wednesday. As this system moves through, we could see some rain or snow showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds back in for Thursday and Friday, with a return to much colder weather, though not likely as cold as we had earlier this past weekend. As we head into next weekend, we’ll be keeping our eyes on a potential coastal storm. While some models have shown the potential for it to impact us next weekend, at this point, the more likely scenario is that it stays offshore with little impact, and high pressure continues to build in, keeping us dry and cold. As usual, we should have a better idea of what to expect when we publish our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Friday looks like it will be another very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Windy with snow across the interior changing to rain early, elsewhere rain, heavy at times in the morning, ending by early afternoon. Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds in the afternoon. High 41-48 in the morning, temperatures start to drop in the afternoon.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few rain or snow showers during the evening. Low 18-25.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 23-30.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 8-15.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for a few snow or rain showers late in the day and at night. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, any lingering snow showers end early. High 31-38.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, except mostly cloudy across Cape Cod with a few snow showers possible. High 17-24.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 21-28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 14-17, 2022

We’ve got a lot going on over the next few days across the region, and you probably won’t like most of it.

A storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, and rapidly strengthen as it heads northeastward, passing well south and east of the region on Friday. However, it will be close enough to spread some rain and strong winds into Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. At the same time, a cold front will drop down from the northwest, ushering arctic air back into the region. This may allow the rain to change to snow before it ends. Temperatures will quickly drop Friday afternoon and evening as gusty northwest to north winds continue to send the arctic air in. Any surfaces that are wet from the rain across southeastern Massachusetts will quickly freeze up Friday afternoon and evening, so keep this in mind if you’re heading out that evening.

Northerly winds may gusts to 35-45 mph on Friday, ushering arctic air into the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We’ll drop into the single numbers by Saturday morning, with some subzero lows north and west of Boston. With strong winds, wind chills will be well below zero Friday night and Saturday morning, so dress appropriately if you’ll be outside. Saturday looks to be a day similar to this past Tuesday with sunshine and some afternoon clouds, possibly a few snow showers across Cape Cod, and temperatures struggling to reach the lower to middle teens. Winds die down Saturday night, resulting in another chilly night, with subzero lows possible once again. Sunday starts off with some sunshine, but clouds start to move in during the afternoon as temperatures start to moderate. This brings us to the complicated part of the forecast.

With wind chills like this, Saturday morning will be a good time to stay inside. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Another strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast and make its way up the East Coast on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track that the storm will take, but for now it looks like it may stay near the coast or just inland, passing directly over, or just west, of our area on Monday, though this is subject to change. This track would result in snow changing to sleet and/or freezing rain and then plain rain across much of the area. However, this is far from a guarantee. There are still some models that bring the storm a little farther south and east, which would result in more snow and less rain, but as we’ve mentioned numerous times, the models have been less than trustworthy beyond 2 or 3 days recently. When (or if) a change to mix and/or rain occurs will also have a significant impact on how much snow accumulates. Given the amount of uncertainty, it’s still WAY too early to try and pin down any potential accumulations, but it’s safe to say that the farther north and west of Boston you are, the better the chance you’ll need to fire up the snowblower or find your shovels. We’ll try to post an update this weekend, once we have some better clarity on the storm.

There is plenty of uncertainty in regards to storm for Sunday/Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain may develop across Cape Cod towards daybreak. Low 26-33.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, rain likely across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, possibly changing to snow before ending, becoming windy. High 35-42, but temperatures will start to quickly drop in the afternoon.

Friday night: Clearing, windy, and much colder, except partly cloudy with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. Low -3 to +4, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and very cold, except partly sunny with a few snow showers across Cape Cod. High 10-17.

Saturday night: Clear skies with diminishing winds. Low -2 to +5, except milder across Cape Cod and the Islands.

Sunday: Sunshine to start the day, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 23-30.

Sunday night: Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow developing, possibly rain across Cape Cod. Low 14-21.

Monday: Snow, possibly changing to sleet/freezing rain/rain, especially the farther south and east you go. High 39-46.

Weekly Outlook: January 10-16, 2022

Dig out the thermals and heavy winter gear, some really cold air is on the way.

Temperatures will turn colder today despite some sunshine, but this is just the opening act for what is on the way. An arctic cold front will cross the region this evening. It may produce some snow showers or squalls, so if you’ll be out this evening, be prepared for a short burst of snow that could significantly reduce visibility and drop a quick coating on the roads. Once the front moves offshore, bitterly cold air will flood into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop below zero in parts of the region Tuesday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine Tuesday afternoon, highs may struggle to reach the lower teens across most of the area, with wind chills that are below zero. Across Cape Cod, there may not be as much sunshine, as northwest winds blowing over the relatively mild water of Cape Cod Bay could produce some ocean-effect snow showers, especially across the Outer Cape. We’ll have another bitterly cold night Tuesday night, with subzero lows possible once again, but as high pressure slides off to the east on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate. It’ll still be chilly, but highs should get into the 30s across the area.

Wind chills could be well below zero Tuesday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Temperatures will turn colder again for the end of the week, but there are bigger concerns. We’ve cautioned you recently that the models have performed rather poorly beyond 2 or 3 days, and that is still the case, so this part of the forecast is highly uncertain. However, many models are showing the potential for a powerful ocean storm to develop late Thursday into Friday, and a second storm to do the same over the weekend. The fact that they all show this gives us a little more confidence that they both may actually develop. The problem is, that’s about all they agree on. They don’t agree on the timing of the storms, the track they might take, how strong they’ll get, and what, if any, impacts they may have up here. These are things that we’ll be keeping a close eye on as the week goes by, but for now, what you read below is our “best guess” (for lack of a better term), but it is very low confidence.

The models all have different ideas about a potential coastal storm on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 23-30.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and breezy, some snow showers or squalls are possible during the evening. Low -2 to 5 north and west of Boston, 6-13 south of Boston, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20 by daybreak.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and very cold, except partly to mostly cloudy with some snow showers across parts of Cape Cod. High 8-15, with wind chills below zero.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low -2 to +5.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and milder. High 31-38.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35-42.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, chance for some light snow or snow showers, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. High 28-35.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High 21-28.

Sunday: Plenty of clouds with a chance of snow, especially in eastern Massachusetts. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: January 7-10, 2022

Our first snowstorm of the season is on the way for Friday, but it’s just part of a colder pattern we’re heading into for the weekend and beyond.

A variety of advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect across the region. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.

Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, and it will head east-northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, passing south and east of New England on Friday as it intensifies. We’ll see snow developing before daybreak, and it may fall heavy at times during the morning, which will result in significant problems for the morning commute. The snow should come to an end by mid-afternoon across the region. Based on the trends in the models since last night, we are adjusting our snowfall forecast upwards a bit, but not that much. Here’s our latest projections:

Southern NH: 3-5″
NH Seacoast/Merrimack Valley: 3-6″
MetroWest/I-495 Belt: 4-7″
I/95 corridor/SE Mass/RI: 5-8″
Upper Cape Cod: 3-6″
Outer Cape/Islands: 1-3″

The National Blend of Models is closest to our thinking right now, but it may be a bit on the high side. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The storm pulls away Friday evening, and skies clear out as high pressure builds in, setting up a sunny but rather chilly Saturday, with many places likely staying in the 20s all day. With clear skies and fresh snowcover, temperatures will quickly plunge Saturday evening into the teens and possibly single numbers in some spots. Clouds stream back in late Saturday night as another system moves toward the region. While this system looks a bit milder, with southerly winds warming things up a bit on Sunday, the models have been trending less mild with every run. With that in mind, we’ll probably see some snow showers or a little freezing rain develop north and west of Boston Sunday afternoon, changing to rain by evening. Keep this in mind if you are going to be out and about Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, just plain rain is expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow before winding down around daybreak Monday. After that, some of the coldest air thus far this winter will pour into the region. Temperatures may not rise much, if at all, Monday afternoon. The coldest weather looks to arrive on Tuesday, when highs may stay in the teens, with subzero lows possible Tuesday night. We’ll have more info on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Tuesday looks like a very cold day across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Thursday night: Becoming cloudy, snow developing 2-5am. Low 23-30.

Friday: Breezy with snow, possibly heavy at times in the morning, ending 12-3pm. High 28-35.

Friday night: Clearing, colder. Low 11-18.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine, chilly. High 24-31.

Saturday night: Clear through the evening, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 10-17, but temperatures may rise a bit after midnight.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely in the afternoon, possibly starting as snow or freezing rain north and west of Boston. High 37-44.

Sunday night: Showers changing to snow showers before ending by daybreak. Low 22-29.

Monday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and colder. Temperatures hold steady or drop a bit during the day.