Labor Day Weekend is here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “What is Hermine going to do?” We’ll try to answer that as best as we can right now.

First, we’ll give you the facts. As of 2pm EDT, Hermine was centered about 90 miles east of Duck, North Carolina, moving toward the east at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. Hermine is now a “post-tropical” storm. What does that mean? Well, to start with, it means that’s it’s no longer tropical. It’s more like a typical Nor’easter that we see throughout the fall, winter, and spring. As you can see in the satellite loop above, most of the thunderstorm activity is now well north of the center of circulation. Tropical systems contain thunderstorm activity concentrated near the center of the storm.

Despite the fact that Hermine is no longer tropical, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the East Coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Watch Hill up to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, which includes all of Cape Cod, the Islands, and the coast of Rhode Island.

So, if it’s no longer tropical, why are there tropical storm watches and warnings in effect? There are two reasons for this. The first, and simplest one, is the fact that there is a chance Hermine could re-acquire tropical characteristics as it sits over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream over the next few days. The other reason is related to Sandy. As you may recall, when Sandy slammed into New Jersey in 2012, there were no hurricane warnings in effect, despite the fact that Sandy was still a Category 1 hurricane while offshore. The reason there were not warnings was because Sandy was expected to become “post-tropical” before landfall, and the rules that the Hurricane Center had to abide by at the time did not allow them to issue watches/warnings if the system was not expected to impact the coast as a tropical system. (Yeah, we think it was stupid too.) So, they changed those rules, and this is the first test of them.

So, what does the future actually hold for Hermine? Hermine will stall out east of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday as it gets stuck under an upper-level low pressure system. It will then drift around south of Long Island for a few days. While it’s sitting over the warm water there, it could become a tropical system again (possibly even a hurricane), but that won’t last too long. Why? As it sits over the same area, it will churn up the waters, which will bring cooler water to the surface through a mechanism called “upwelling.” As this cooler water comes up, the system will lose the warm water it needs to sustain a tropical system, and then lose any tropical characteristics it may have gotten back. In other words, it’ll be “post-tropical” again.

In terms of sensible weather, Hermine is going to lay the smack down on the Mid-Atlantic states. Rough surf will pound the coast, especially in New Jersey, for several days, along with strong winds right along the coast. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected along the Mid-Atlantic coast, along with some periods of rain, though the heaviest rain should stay off shore for the most part.

What about here in New England? We’re going to escape the brunt of it. There will be some very rough seas, starting on Sunday and likely continuing through at least Wednesday. It’s probably a good idea to stay out of the water if you’re heading to the beach, as the risk for rip currents will be high. Likewise, you probably don’t want to be heading out on a boat, with seas of 10-20 feet expected. If you’re taking one of the ferries to the Vineyard, Nantucket, or Block Island, there will likely be times where they have to cancel them due to rough seas. In terms of winds, the strong winds are likely right along the South Coast and across the Cape and Islands. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph or more are likely at times right through at least Tuesday. The bulk of the rain will stay to our south, but periodic showers and occasional batches of steady rain will come through at times over the next several days. The graphic above might be overdone in terms of how much rainfall we’ll get, but there will likely be some rain at times, especially the farther south you head.

Hermine likely won’t start to move out of the picture until the latter half of the week. Until then, we’ll just head to deal with clouds, periodic showers, occasionally strong winds, and rough surf for several days. In other words, it’ll feel like a typical April week, expect temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s instead of 40s and 50s.

(Note: This post was edited to reflect the fact that Hermine was upgraded to a hurricane at 3pm EDT)

We’re just about to start the Labor Day Weekend, traditionally summer’s last gasp around here, and the big question on everyone’s mind is “Will Hurricane Hermine ruin my plans?” The short answer is “maybe.”

First, let’s start off with the basic facts. As of 3pm EDT, Hurricane Hermine was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, and was moving towards the north-northeast at 14 mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, and some more strengthening is possible before landfall just east of Apalachicola tonight.A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Florida from Mexico Beach to the mouth of the Suwanee River. Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for much of the remainder of the Florida Gulf Coast, as well as much of the Atlantic Coast from northeastern Florida up to North Carolina.

OK, now that we’ve got the facts spelled out, here’s what we’re fairly sure about: Hermine will likely make landfall a little east of Apalachicola, Florida tonight. This will be the 1st hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005, ending Florida’s record 11-year “hurricane drought.” Once it makes landfall it will move up across Georgia and into the Carolinas, slowly weakening while dropping heavy rainfall on the region. Flooding is almost a certainty in some areas. The center of Hermine should move back out into the Atlantic off the North Carolina coastline, possibly as far north as Norfolk, Virginia by late Saturday. Once off the coast, the storm will likely drift northward and then stall east of the Delmarva Peninsula on Sunday. This is where things get tricky.

We’ve gone over what is going on currently, and what we’re fairly sure will happen over the next 2-3 days. Now, we’ll delve into the parts that we don’t have a handle on yet. Once the storm stalls east of the Delmarva Peninsula, we have a lot of questions that just can’t be answered right now. Where does it actually stall? How long does it stall? Which way does it drift once it does stall? How strong will it be? How large will the wind field be? How large will the precipitation field be? These are all important details that have a HUGE effect on the forecast. Unfortunately, we won’t have a better idea of these details for another 24 or even 48 hours.

While we’re not expecting Hermine to be a hurricane once its off the Delmarva Peninsula, it could still be a tropical storm once it is east of the Delmarva Peninsula. More likely, it will become extratropical. What does that mean? To put it in simple terms, it will be more like a typical Nor’easter around here.

If you’ve got Labor Day Weekend plans, don’t scrap them just yet, but have a backup plan ready. The farther north your plans are, the less likely that you’ll be impacted. However, the closer you are to the South Coast or the Cape, the greater the chance that you may be dealing with gusty winds and/or rainfall. (Rough surf is a virtual lock at this point, so staying out of the water is probably a good idea).

We should be able to provide an update this weekend, once things become a little more certain.

The peak of hurricane season is normally a 6-week period from late August until late September. This year is no exception. We currently have five active tropical systems that we’re tracking, and more may be on the way. Of the five that are currently out there, all of them are a threat to some land areas, four of them to parts of the United States.

We’ll start in the Central Pacific where Hurricane Madeline is bearing down on parts of the Hawaiian Islands. As of 8am HST Tuesday, Hurricane Madeline was centered about 415 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, moving towards the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, making Madeline a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai. It is extremely rarely for a storm impact Hawaii as a hurricane when moving in from the east. The current forecast calls for Madeline to pass just south of the Big Island with some weakening expected. Most hurricanes that impact Hawaii are traveling from south to north. Madeline should pass close enough to Hawaii to bring strong winds and heavy rain to some of the southernmost islands. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches and locally heavier are possible, especially in the windward sides of the islands. Rough surf will pound most of the islands for the next several days.

Next up is Hurricane Lester, which was centered about 1350 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii at midday, moving toward the west at 14 mph. Lester has top winds near 120 mph, is expected to steadily weaken over the next few days while continuing in a general westward direction. While Lester is not a threat to land for the next few days, that could change by the end of the week. The current track calls for Lester to gradually turn more towards the west-northwest and northwest by Friday and Saturday, passing a little north of the Hawaiian Islands. While this track would likely spare the islands from most of the wind and rain, if Lester makes that turn a bit later, it would pass a lot closer to the islands. Residents of Hawaii should make sure to keep tabs on Lester’s progress once Madeline moves away from the region.

Closer to the mainland we find Tropical Depression Eight. The storm was centered about 70 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early Tuesday afternoon and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. A slow drift toward the north is expected tonight and Wednesday, with some strengthening possible as the storm moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. Wins gusts to 30-40 mph and locally heavy rainfall are expected over the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight and Wednesday. After that, the system should start to head out into the Atlantic and dissipate by later in the week.

Finally, we get to Tropical Depression Nine, which was centered about 340 miles west of Key West, Florida at midday Tuesday. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was moving towards the west-northwest at 7 mph. This is the same storm we’ve been watching for a week-and-a-half that was supposed to be the next “Storm of the Century”. Well, it might finally be starting to get its act together. The forecast for this system calls for a turn more towards the north and eventually northeast as an upper-level trough of low pressure starts to steer the system. Strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for parts of the Gulf Coast later today or tonight. Some of the models show the possibility of the storm becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast later this week. Once it makes landfall, it should quickly cross the Southeast, then emerge into the Atlantic, where some re-strengthening is possible. The system will likely bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Carolinas, but beyond that its future is uncertain. Some models indicate that it will continue northeastward, out into the Atlantic, while others try to slow it down and head northward up the East Coast in a much-weakened state. Since this could have an adverse impact on the Labor Day Weekend up here, we need to pay close attention to it.

Finally, a new tropical wave has emerged from the coast of Africa. This wave will cross the Cape Verde Islands tonight, then head westward across the Atlantic. Conditions are favorable for further development, and many of the forecast models show the possibility of this system strengthening over the next several days. It is still at least 5 days away from impacting the eastern Caribbean, so there is plenty of time to monitor its progress before it threatens any land areas. If it does do what the models are showing, expect the hype machine to get cranked up to maximum again, as the next “Storm of the Century of the Week” could be a threat to the East Coast.

As we get into the end of August, we are moving into the peak of hurricane season. As expected, the tropics have awakened, with plenty of activity to watch, but thus far, much of it remains disorganized.

Starting in the Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Gaston. Gaston was centered about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda Friday evening, moving towards the northwest at 15 mph. While Gaston was briefly upgraded to a hurricane earlier in the week, it currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Conditions are favorable for Gaston to strengthen this weekend and become a hurricane once again. The storm should turn more toward the north and eventually northeast, remaining over open waters into the start of the upcoming week.

A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the Central Bahamas this evening. This is the same storm that everyone on the Internet has been hyping up as next “Storm of the Century” for the past week. As you can see, it still hasn’t done anything, but that hasn’t stopped the hype at all. Conditions will be unfavorable into the weekend for any development of this system. Several models are still showing the potential for the system to develop once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures are very warm across the Gulf, which would help to fuel any developing system. Will it ever develop? We’ll find out one way or the other in the next few days. Anyone with interests in and around the Gulf Coast should still keep an eye on the progress of this system, just in case it finally gets its act together.

Meanwhile, there is a weak trough of low pressure already located in the northern Gulf of Mexico this is being watched. Upper-level conditions are not favorable for development of this system, but it will bring heavy rainfall to portions of Louisiana and Texas this weekend. This is not good news for areas that were hit hard by flooding just a few weeks ago.

Another disturbance has developed just south of Bermuda this evening. This system is expected to remain weak for the next few days while moving very little. Eventually it should start drifting westward, and some slow development is possible. This system may bring some showers and thunderstorms to Bermuda this weekend and parts of eastern North Carolina during the early part of the upcoming week, but otherwise should not have much of an impact on any land areas.

While the Atlantic is filled with potential tropical systems, the Pacific has a couple of named systems, one of which could be a threat to land.

Hurricane Lester was centered about 550 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico Friday evening. Lester has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Lester is currently moving toward the west at 9 mph, and a general westerly track is expected to continue through the weekend. Lester is not a threat to land for the next several days, however, some models are showing that it could have some impacts of Hawaii towards next weekend.

Tropical Storm Madeline could be a more immediate threat to Hawaii. Tropical Depression 14-E developed earlier on Friday about 1250 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Madeline Friday evening. Madeline has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and additional strengthening is expected. Madeline could become a hurricane by the end of the weekend or beginning of next week. The storm is expected to track towards the northwest this weekend before turning more towards the west. On this track, Madeline could approach the Hawaiian Islands towards midweek. Residents of the region should keep an eye on Madeline’s progress during the next few days.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon 12W Lionrock (Is that not the coolest name you’ve seen in a while for a tropical system?) has been slowly meandering around south of Japan for much of the past week, but that looks like it is about to change. As of Friday evening, the storm has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph, and some additional strengthening is possible this weekend. A track toward the northeast is expected this weekend, but a turn more toward the north and eventually northwest is likely by Sunday or Monday. On this track, the typhoon would make landfall in southeastern or eastern Japan on Monday.