In the past several days, we’ve had 80-degree temperatures setting record highs, torrential downpours leading to flooding, several inches of snow across the higher elevations, and wind gusts to 60 mph across the region. Believe it or not, there’s a technical term for all of this: “October” While we’re still in October, things will be a lot less volatile during the upcoming week.

We’ll start the week off with a little bit of rain as a weak system moves across the region. The rain will be mainly confined to areas south of the Mass Pike, and should be all done before many of you get to work Monday morning. It will remain windy into Tuesday as the storm that brought us the heavy rain Friday continues to sit and spin across southeastern Canada. High pressure then builds in, giving us dry but rather cool conditions for mid-week.The next system gives us some rain Thursday into early Friday. While there could be some downpours, we’re not looking at anything like what we saw Friday night. High pressure then builds in for the weekend, but another storm looks to approach late Sunday night and into Halloween. Right now, it looks like the rain will be out of here in time for trick-or-treaters, but we’ve got plenty of time to keep an eye on that system.

Monday: Showers in the morning, then becoming partly sunny and windy in the afternoon. High 52-59.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 43-50.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing late in the day, becoming a steady rain at night. High 46-53.

Friday: Rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 53-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 50-57.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing at night. High 48-55.

Finally, since we’re getting to the time of year where people start wondering when the snow will start to fall around here, we figured we’d try to answer that. Now, we understand that some of you ask this question because you love winter, and some ask because you dread it and want to know when your luck will run out. There’s a model called the CFS, that actually goes out several months. We put zero stock in this model, and are only presenting it for entertainment purposes only. In other words, the odds that this model is right are roughly the same odds that the Cubs win the World Series the Jets win the Super Bowl this year.

As you can probably guess from the video above, we’ve got some changes coming this week. A weak cold front will drop down into the region today, with just a chance for a few showers as it moves through. That front will lift back northward as a warm front as we head into Tuesday, bringing us some Indian Summer weather for midweek. The front may take its time heading northward, so the warmer air may not reach the Seacoast of New Hampshire until late in the day. Once that warmer air settles in, we could even set some record highs, especially on Wednesday. A cold front moves through late Wednesday, bringing some cooler conditions in for Thursday, but little rainfall.

But wait, things change again after that! That cold front stalls out to our south, and a wave of low pressure rides along it. At the same time, an area of low pressure may try to move up the East Coast. As a result, Friday could be a rather wet day. How much rain we get depends on where the front is located and how close the coastal low comes to New England. It appears as though the front may lift back northward again as warm front, which would mean another mild day, but also focus most of the rain across northern New England.

That’s not all though, as there are even more changes next weekend! The coastal low pulls away from the region and the cold front moves well offshore, with high pressure starting to settle in. That will bring much colder air into the region by Sunday, despite some sunshine. How cold? There might even be some snow showers across the higher elevations of northern New England. That chilly air likely hangs around into the first part of the next week.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 70-77.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and becoming breezy. High 75-82, though it could stay cooler along the NH Seacoast and possibly the North Shore.

Tuesday Night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 75-82.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a few showers late in the day. High 63-70.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High 63-70.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, more showers possible, mainly in the morning, becoming breezy. High 57-64.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 54-61.

We finally got the beneficial rain we that we really needed on Sunday. Of course, we need a lot more of it. This week, we’re not going to get it. So while you won’t need an umbrella, you will need to dig out your fall coats and/or sweatshirts, because it’s going to turn cooler.

A cold front will continue to pull away from the region today and high pressure will build in. This will result in dry and cool conditions into at least Wednesday. By Thursday, we’ll be back in a somewhat similar pattern to what we had on Sunday. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and Hurricane Nicole will be well offshore after making a close pass to Bermuda. Unlike Sunday, Nicole should be too far offshore to have any influence on our weather, so we’ll just have to deal with scattered showers with the cold frontal passage. High pressure then builds back in for next Friday and the weekend with a return to cool and dry conditions. While we still could see some days with highs in the 70s coming up, it is becoming less and less likely that we’ll see highs reaching 80 again before March or April. It could be worse though, at least we don’t have snow in the forecast…..yet.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and cool with diminishing winds. High 55-62.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 34-41, with some frost likely in the normally colder locations.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of late-day showers. High 64-71.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 55-62.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 56-63.

Fall is definitely in the air as we start this week, with some frost in places to start the day. With the change in seasons, we may start to see a change in the pattern too, but there is plenty of uncertainty that goes with that. We are fairly certain about what will happen for the next few days though. High pressure moves offshore today with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures once again. A cold front moves in tomorrow, with some showers likely. After that, things get quite tricky.

That cold front will likely stall out near or just south of New England, and high pressure will try to build in from the north. At the same time, and upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Appalachians and remain in place for much of the rest of the week. Exactly where it sets up has big implications on the forecast though.If the high is able to build in enough, we’ll stay mostly dry, albeit it cool and breezy with an easterly flow bringing in some drizzle at times off the Atlantic. If the low sets up a bit farther north, we may have to deal with episodes of showers from Wednesday right through to the weekend. At this point, we’re not completely sure which way is right, so this is a low confidence forecast. Recent history says we stay dry, but climatology and the normal tendencies with the models say we more than likely would be cool and damp. For now, that’s the direction we’re leaning, but keep in mind, things could end up considerably different.

Monday: Sunny and chilly to start the day, but clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 61-68.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with showers developing after midnight.Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Showers taper off and end from northwest to southeast, lingering longest near the south coast. Some sunshine may develop late in the day across the interior. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies well inland, remaining partly to mostly cloudy near the coast, with a few showers still possible across the Cape. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine, a few spotty showers or drizzle may develop, especially near the south coast. High 63-70.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers possible. High 61-68.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers and drizzle possible. High 60-67.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for more showers. High 63-70.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some showers. High 62-69.

On another note, keep an eye on the tropics. There’s a disturbance that’s about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles early this morning that bears watching. There’s a decent chance it could become a tropical depression later this week before moving into the Caribbean. Once it gets into the Caribbean, some models show some modest strengthening, while others develop the storm into a monster (see below). It’s what the storm does more than a week out (assuming it develops) that bears watching. Some models have it keep cruising west-northwestward across the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, and from there who knows. That would be bad for a lot of reasons. One silver lining though would be that after it moves inland and weakens it could bring us some beneficial rainfall. Other models have it turn northward, cross Hispaniola or Cuba, then head out into the open Atlantic. Still, there are other models that have it cross Hispaniola, then head northward, up the East Coast. We don’t have to explain to you why that wouldn’t be good at all. While the odds of this system doing anything up here are fairly remote, there’s a chance that it could impact the US at some point. Again, don’t worry too much, but keep an eye on what this system does, if it does anything at all.

Do not panic! Water is going to fall from the sky today. This is actually a normal circumstance. We haven’t seen it happen that much in the past several months, but it does actually happen from time to time. There’s even a technical term for it – “Rain”.

We really need this rain, as the drought we’re in just keeps getting worse and worse. Much of the region is now in severe or extreme drought, and while today’s rain will help, it will barely put a dent in it. What we need is numerous episodes of rainfall spread out over time, and the chances of that happening should start to improve as we head deeper into fall and winter.

GFS Model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

NAM Model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

How much rain we get today is still a big question mark, as you can see by these two model forecasts. We could get a little, we could get a lot. At least we’ll get some rain. Of course, after today’s rain, we probably won’t see much more until a cold front comes through Friday night. Before that, we’ll have high pressure bringing us dry and warm weather once again. As for next weekend, once the front goes through, high pressure returns with more dry weather. Notice that we didn’t say more “dry and warm” weather. That’s because next weekend looks significantly cooler. How much cooler? How does highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s sound? It sounds like late September to us. While these temperatures are actually a little below normal, given how warm the past few months have been, it’ll feel like it’s a lot cooler than it really is.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers expected. Some localized downpours are possible. High 71-78.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off and ending. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy.Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds.High 76-83.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Friday: Increasing clouds, showers are possible late in the day and at night. High 77-84.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower.  High 64-71.

Sunday:Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.

Finally, because we like to entertain you at times, but also let you know what’s coming, we decided to end this week’s outlook with a good laugh for everyone. There’s a model called the CFS. It’s used for long-range forecasting, and it’s really not that good. However, sometimes, it’s fun to look at. While most models only go out a few days, we have a few that go out 10 to 16 days. This model however, goes out months. On one site that we use to look at this model, it goes out 32 days. Today’s Day-32 map was quite interesting, and is not likely to happen, but what the heck, let’s have some fun.

It’s getting tough to find ways to say the same thing every week, but we’ll try. Most of the upcoming week will be dry, but unlike much of the past few months, temperatures will start to turn cooler. Of course, this is expected, since we’re into the middle of September already and it couldn’t stay hot forever.

The week will start off on a cool note, as high pressure builds in, but as it moves offshore, we’ll warm up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Humidity will make a comeback on Wednesday as well, but a cold front will start to approach from the west. That front may give us a few showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night, but a drought-busting rainfall is not expected. After that, high pressure comes back for the end of the week, and this time, it’ll turn even cooler. How cool? Throw a blanket on the bed, because a lot of us could wake up to lows in the 40s Friday morning.Temperatures warm up again next weekend, but another cold front will start to approach, and it could bring in some showers late Sunday.

Just remember, a couple of days of cool weather is expected at this time of year. Things could be a lot worse. Out in the Northern Rockies, over the next few days, some places, mainly above 5000 feet elevation could pick up a foot or more of snow. Yeah, you read that right.

No snow here for quite some time, but here are the details for the next week:

Monday: Harris K. Telemacher said it best in “L.A. Story” – Sun! Sun! Sun! High 71-78.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: Morning sunshine, then increasing clouds. A few showers are possible late in the day. Humid. High 81-88.

Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 67-74.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 70-77.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds.High 73-80.

Sunday: Becoming cloudy and breezy, showers are possible in the afternoon. High 74-81.

While the forecast for the upcoming week seems like it should be complicated, in reality, it isn’t, even with a former hurricane sitting just a couple of hundred miles to the south.

Hermine mills around south of the region for a few days. This gives us gusty winds, and periodic episodes of showers and steady rain into Wednesday, especially along the south coast. By Thursday, Hermine finally starts to pull away, the sun comes out, and it gets hot and humid again (summer’s not quite over yet folks). A cold front moves through Thursday night, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.It’ll still be warm for Friday and Saturday, but without the humidity as high pressure builds in. Another front starts to approach on Sunday. Heat and humidity return ahead of it, but showers and thunderstorms accompany it as it moves through late in the day.

Monday: Cloudy and breezy with occasional showers and periods of steady rain at times. High 68-75.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with more showers possible, especially closer to the south coast. Low 59-66.

Tuesday:Mostly cloudy and breezy, more episodes of showers are possible. High 70-77.

Tuesday night:Mostly cloudy, still breezy along the south coast. Some additional showers may move through. Low 62-69.

Wednesday:Mostly cloudy with some more showers possible, still breezy across the Cape. High 77-84.

Thursday: Becoming partly sunny and humid. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in the evening and at night. High 84-91.

Friday: A mix of sunshine and clouds, drier. High 83-90.

Saturday:Mostly sunny. High 83-90.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 82-89.