If you’re planning to head “over the river and through the woods to grandfather’s house” for your Thanksgiving dinner, well, you won’t need a sleigh to get there. You will probably need a coat and maybe an umbrella too.

If the snowflakes that many of us saw Sunday evening weren’t enough of a hint, the wind chill when you step outside today will be a bigger one – we’re moved into a colder pattern. Don’t worry, there still aren’t any big snowstorms in the immediate future, but there also aren’t any days where you can walk around in shorts and be comfortable.

We start the week off with low pressure moving across Northern New England and into Atlantic Canada. This will result in blustery (there’s a word you only hear used in the winter) and cool conditions for Monday and Tuesday. A few more snow showers are possible on Monday as an upper-level low pressure area swings through the region.High pressure briefly builds in for Wednesday, but the next storm system will be moving eastward right on its heels. Thanksgiving will be mainly cloudy with a few showers possible, and some wet snow could mix in if the showers arrive early enough in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. Black Friday starts off dry (if you’re heading out for the Midnight Specials), but another weak system will quickly approach, with more showers possible by evening, continuing into Saturday when a period of steadier rain is possible. Blustery (there’s that word again!) and cool conditions return on Sunday.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, chance for a few snow or rain showers. High 33-40.

Monday night: Partly cloudy to clear, breezy. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow early in the day. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers, especially late in the day and at night. High 43-50.

Saturday: Rain tapers off to showers before ending late in the day. High 42-49.

Sunday:A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 40-47.

Before you complain about how cold it is, just remember, it could be a LOT worse. Over in Siberia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, temperatures today will be 20 to 40 below zero. That’s 30 to 50 or more degrees below normal. Our temperatures, while chilly, will “only” be 10-15 degrees below normal today.

Once again, we’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up across the region, with little to talk about. That’s a good thing, because we’re into the middle of November now, and it’s only a matter of time until things get more complicated. (Don’t worry, we’re not going to use the S-Word).

We start the week off with high pressure in control, giving us a sunny, mild day today. Tuesday is the complicated day of the week. A storm system will move up the coast, giving us some rain and cooler temperatures, mainly north of Boston. Of course, “cooler” is a relative term, as even though Tuesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Monday, we’ll still be near or a little above normal for mid-November. South of Boston, temperatures could spike back into the 50s to near 60 again on Tuesday, depending on the exact track the storm takes. Once the storm goes by on Wednesday, high pressure builds back in, with drier weather for much of the remainder of the week, along with another warming trend. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if temperatures on Friday and Saturday ended up even warmer than what we have in the forecast below. Another system moves in this weekend with some showers and cooler conditions, but again, things could be a lot worse at this time of year.

How much worse could it be? Consider this. The cold front that will give us showers over the weekend will be extending southward from a storm moving into northern Quebec. Before it gets there, it will be quite a strong storm moving across the Nation’s mid-section later this week. It will likely produce blizzard conditions across the Dakotas, with heavy snow, wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph, and very cold temperatures. How cold? How does sub-zero low temperatures sound next Sunday morning with 1-2 feet of fresh snow cover sound? Aren’t you glad that you don’t live in Bismarck, North Dakota?

Monday: Mostly sunny for much of the day, clouds start to filter in by evening. High 57-64.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, showers developing towards daybreak along the south coast. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, thought a few pockets of steadier and heavier rain are possible. High 47-54 north and west of Boston, 54-61 from Boston southward.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers tapering off and ending. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. High 53-60.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 52-59.

Saturday: Mostly sunny to start, then clouds start to increase late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

The votes are in – most of this week will feature some decent weather. However, it’s not all good news. Mother Nature has elected to remind us that it’s November, and it looks like we’re going to have our inaugural visit of arctic air next weekend.

We’ll start the week with high pressure giving us sunshine and cool temperatures on Monday. As the high slides offshore, we’ll warm up on Tuesday. A weak cold front moves through on Wednesday, but we’ll only see a few showers with the front. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday before the next cold front comes through Friday night. Then, we get to the weekend. Hope you’ve got your heavier jackets out of the closet, because you’ll need them. Gusty northwest to northerly winds will not only bring in some of the coldest air so far this season, they’ll also re-introduce a phrase you haven’t heard in several months – “wind chill”. Oh, and there’s even the chance for a few rain or snow showers (yes, we said the s-word).

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 46-53.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some afternoon showers possible. High 53-60.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds move in, becoming windy. High 50-57.

Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds, windy, chance for a rain or snow shower. High 38-45.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 43-50.

If you’re worried about an early season snowstorm, you can stop. There doesn’t appear to be anything of note to worry about over the next couple of weeks. It’s fairly rare to have a snowstorm this early in the season around here. Sure, there are a few examples (Snowtober 2011, Veterans Day 1987), but normally, you need to get into late November, or more likely December, before we get a true “snowstorm” around here. For now, we only have to worry about the crapstorm known as the Election for 2 more days.

There’s nothing spooky about the forecast this week. Most of the week will be a treat, with very little in the way of tricks.OK, now that we’ve got the requisite back Halloween puns out of the way, we can get to the actual forecast.

High pressure will keep the region dry today and Tuesday. A weak system passes by to the north Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing in some clouds, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see any precipitation.While we’ll be cool today and tomorrow, we will start to warm up on Wednesday. While Thursday will also be warm, we’ll be dealing with rain by afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. The rain will continue into Thursday night, but be gone by the time you wake up Friday morning. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday with cool conditions returning. Another weak system comes through on Sunday, with some additional showers expected.

Considering how bad things can get around here for Halloween, this week’s forecast isn’t that bad. Just 4 years ago, we were cleaning up after Sandy. Just one year earlier, we were digging out from a record blizzard. Also, 25 years ago, the so-called “Perfect Storm” was battering the region.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 61-68.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely in the afternoon and evening. High 63-70.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 47-54.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 45-52.

In the past several days, we’ve had 80-degree temperatures setting record highs, torrential downpours leading to flooding, several inches of snow across the higher elevations, and wind gusts to 60 mph across the region. Believe it or not, there’s a technical term for all of this: “October” While we’re still in October, things will be a lot less volatile during the upcoming week.

We’ll start the week off with a little bit of rain as a weak system moves across the region. The rain will be mainly confined to areas south of the Mass Pike, and should be all done before many of you get to work Monday morning. It will remain windy into Tuesday as the storm that brought us the heavy rain Friday continues to sit and spin across southeastern Canada. High pressure then builds in, giving us dry but rather cool conditions for mid-week.The next system gives us some rain Thursday into early Friday. While there could be some downpours, we’re not looking at anything like what we saw Friday night. High pressure then builds in for the weekend, but another storm looks to approach late Sunday night and into Halloween. Right now, it looks like the rain will be out of here in time for trick-or-treaters, but we’ve got plenty of time to keep an eye on that system.

Monday: Showers in the morning, then becoming partly sunny and windy in the afternoon. High 52-59.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 32-39.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 43-50.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 41-48.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing late in the day, becoming a steady rain at night. High 46-53.

Friday: Rain ending in the morning, then becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 53-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 50-57.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing at night. High 48-55.

Finally, since we’re getting to the time of year where people start wondering when the snow will start to fall around here, we figured we’d try to answer that. Now, we understand that some of you ask this question because you love winter, and some ask because you dread it and want to know when your luck will run out. There’s a model called the CFS, that actually goes out several months. We put zero stock in this model, and are only presenting it for entertainment purposes only. In other words, the odds that this model is right are roughly the same odds that the Cubs win the World Series the Jets win the Super Bowl this year.

As you can probably guess from the video above, we’ve got some changes coming this week. A weak cold front will drop down into the region today, with just a chance for a few showers as it moves through. That front will lift back northward as a warm front as we head into Tuesday, bringing us some Indian Summer weather for midweek. The front may take its time heading northward, so the warmer air may not reach the Seacoast of New Hampshire until late in the day. Once that warmer air settles in, we could even set some record highs, especially on Wednesday. A cold front moves through late Wednesday, bringing some cooler conditions in for Thursday, but little rainfall.

But wait, things change again after that! That cold front stalls out to our south, and a wave of low pressure rides along it. At the same time, an area of low pressure may try to move up the East Coast. As a result, Friday could be a rather wet day. How much rain we get depends on where the front is located and how close the coastal low comes to New England. It appears as though the front may lift back northward again as warm front, which would mean another mild day, but also focus most of the rain across northern New England.

That’s not all though, as there are even more changes next weekend! The coastal low pulls away from the region and the cold front moves well offshore, with high pressure starting to settle in. That will bring much colder air into the region by Sunday, despite some sunshine. How cold? There might even be some snow showers across the higher elevations of northern New England. That chilly air likely hangs around into the first part of the next week.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a shower. High 70-77.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and becoming breezy. High 75-82, though it could stay cooler along the NH Seacoast and possibly the North Shore.

Tuesday Night: Clear skies, breezy. Low 59-66.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 75-82.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds, slight chance for a few showers late in the day. High 63-70.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High 63-70.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, more showers possible, mainly in the morning, becoming breezy. High 57-64.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 54-61.

We finally got the beneficial rain we that we really needed on Sunday. Of course, we need a lot more of it. This week, we’re not going to get it. So while you won’t need an umbrella, you will need to dig out your fall coats and/or sweatshirts, because it’s going to turn cooler.

A cold front will continue to pull away from the region today and high pressure will build in. This will result in dry and cool conditions into at least Wednesday. By Thursday, we’ll be back in a somewhat similar pattern to what we had on Sunday. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and Hurricane Nicole will be well offshore after making a close pass to Bermuda. Unlike Sunday, Nicole should be too far offshore to have any influence on our weather, so we’ll just have to deal with scattered showers with the cold frontal passage. High pressure then builds back in for next Friday and the weekend with a return to cool and dry conditions. While we still could see some days with highs in the 70s coming up, it is becoming less and less likely that we’ll see highs reaching 80 again before March or April. It could be worse though, at least we don’t have snow in the forecast…..yet.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and cool with diminishing winds. High 55-62.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 34-41, with some frost likely in the normally colder locations.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 60-67.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of late-day showers. High 64-71.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 55-62.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 56-63.

Fall is definitely in the air as we start this week, with some frost in places to start the day. With the change in seasons, we may start to see a change in the pattern too, but there is plenty of uncertainty that goes with that. We are fairly certain about what will happen for the next few days though. High pressure moves offshore today with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures once again. A cold front moves in tomorrow, with some showers likely. After that, things get quite tricky.

That cold front will likely stall out near or just south of New England, and high pressure will try to build in from the north. At the same time, and upper-level low pressure system will settle into the Appalachians and remain in place for much of the rest of the week. Exactly where it sets up has big implications on the forecast though.If the high is able to build in enough, we’ll stay mostly dry, albeit it cool and breezy with an easterly flow bringing in some drizzle at times off the Atlantic. If the low sets up a bit farther north, we may have to deal with episodes of showers from Wednesday right through to the weekend. At this point, we’re not completely sure which way is right, so this is a low confidence forecast. Recent history says we stay dry, but climatology and the normal tendencies with the models say we more than likely would be cool and damp. For now, that’s the direction we’re leaning, but keep in mind, things could end up considerably different.

Monday: Sunny and chilly to start the day, but clouds start to filter in during the afternoon. High 61-68.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with showers developing after midnight.Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Showers taper off and end from northwest to southeast, lingering longest near the south coast. Some sunshine may develop late in the day across the interior. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies well inland, remaining partly to mostly cloudy near the coast, with a few showers still possible across the Cape. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine, a few spotty showers or drizzle may develop, especially near the south coast. High 63-70.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers possible. High 61-68.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with more showers and drizzle possible. High 60-67.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for more showers. High 63-70.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some showers. High 62-69.

On another note, keep an eye on the tropics. There’s a disturbance that’s about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles early this morning that bears watching. There’s a decent chance it could become a tropical depression later this week before moving into the Caribbean. Once it gets into the Caribbean, some models show some modest strengthening, while others develop the storm into a monster (see below). It’s what the storm does more than a week out (assuming it develops) that bears watching. Some models have it keep cruising west-northwestward across the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, and from there who knows. That would be bad for a lot of reasons. One silver lining though would be that after it moves inland and weakens it could bring us some beneficial rainfall. Other models have it turn northward, cross Hispaniola or Cuba, then head out into the open Atlantic. Still, there are other models that have it cross Hispaniola, then head northward, up the East Coast. We don’t have to explain to you why that wouldn’t be good at all. While the odds of this system doing anything up here are fairly remote, there’s a chance that it could impact the US at some point. Again, don’t worry too much, but keep an eye on what this system does, if it does anything at all.

Do not panic! Water is going to fall from the sky today. This is actually a normal circumstance. We haven’t seen it happen that much in the past several months, but it does actually happen from time to time. There’s even a technical term for it – “Rain”.

We really need this rain, as the drought we’re in just keeps getting worse and worse. Much of the region is now in severe or extreme drought, and while today’s rain will help, it will barely put a dent in it. What we need is numerous episodes of rainfall spread out over time, and the chances of that happening should start to improve as we head deeper into fall and winter.

GFS Model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

NAM Model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday morning. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

How much rain we get today is still a big question mark, as you can see by these two model forecasts. We could get a little, we could get a lot. At least we’ll get some rain. Of course, after today’s rain, we probably won’t see much more until a cold front comes through Friday night. Before that, we’ll have high pressure bringing us dry and warm weather once again. As for next weekend, once the front goes through, high pressure returns with more dry weather. Notice that we didn’t say more “dry and warm” weather. That’s because next weekend looks significantly cooler. How much cooler? How does highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s sound? It sounds like late September to us. While these temperatures are actually a little below normal, given how warm the past few months have been, it’ll feel like it’s a lot cooler than it really is.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers expected. Some localized downpours are possible. High 71-78.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off and ending. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy.Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds.High 76-83.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Friday: Increasing clouds, showers are possible late in the day and at night. High 77-84.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, just a slight chance for an afternoon shower.  High 64-71.

Sunday:Partly to mostly sunny. High 61-68.

Finally, because we like to entertain you at times, but also let you know what’s coming, we decided to end this week’s outlook with a good laugh for everyone. There’s a model called the CFS. It’s used for long-range forecasting, and it’s really not that good. However, sometimes, it’s fun to look at. While most models only go out a few days, we have a few that go out 10 to 16 days. This model however, goes out months. On one site that we use to look at this model, it goes out 32 days. Today’s Day-32 map was quite interesting, and is not likely to happen, but what the heck, let’s have some fun.