Weekly Outlook: December 26, 2016 – January 1, 2017

As we head down the home stretch of 2016, we’ve got plenty going on in the weather department. In fact, we’re looking at three separate storms over the next seven days. So, let’s get right to it.

Storm #1 impacts the region later today into Tuesday. For the most part, this storm will not be a big deal, with some light rain for much of the region. However, when the precipitation moves in this afternoon, temperatures will be on the chilly side. We may see some flurries or sleet in a few spots, but it should all change to rain by mid-to-late afternoon. That’s good if you’re south of Boston. If you’re north and west of Boston, it’s bad, because temperatures will likely still be below freezing, meaning, we’re looking at some freezing drizzle or freezing rain for much of the afternoon. Warmer air will eventually spread northward, with temperatures rising above freezing as we head into the evening, but it may be close to midnight across central and southern New Hampshire before that happens. The rain ends by midday Tuesday, then we dry out for Wednesday, though it will remain on the chilly side. This brings us to Storm #2.

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The Monday evening commute could be a slippery one north and west of Boston. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Storm #2 will impact the region Thursday, and there are still plenty of questions with this storm that we can’t answer definitively right now. What we do know is that a storm will move across the Great Lakes and into central Quebec. A secondary storm system will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and head northeastward. How quickly that secondary system develops and where it actually tracks will have a big impact on the forecast. Right now, it looks like most of our area will see mainly rain, with the best chance for some snow across areas north and west of Boston. The farther north and west you go, the better the chance for more snow.That storm heads into Atlantic Canada on Friday and really gets cranked up, which means we’re looking at a windy and cold day. A few flurries are even possible.High pressure builds in for Saturday, before Storm #3 comes calling on Sunday.

Storm #3 is the weakest of the bunch, but that doesn’t mean it won’t cause problems, especially since it’ll be New Year’s Day. The precipitation should start out as snow before daybreak, so if you’re out REALLY late on New Year’s Eve, you may have to watch out. However, it will likely change over to rain across much of the region before ending in the early afternoon hours.

As always, if any of these systems become a bigger threat, we’ll have a more detailed post in advance of it. Right now, the Thursday system is the one we’d be most concerned about that being the case.

Monday: Becoming cloudy with some spotty flurries or sleet around near midday, then some freezing drizzle or freezing rain likely in the afternoon, changing to plain rain across much of eastern Mass by evening. High 27-34 north and west of Boston, 34-41 south and east..

Monday night: Any remaining freezing rain across southern NH and the Merrimack Valley changes over to plain rain by midnight, with light rain and showers across the rest of the area. Becoming windy, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Mass. Temperatures gradually rise overnight.

Tuesday: Showers ending in the morning, some clearing takes place in the afternoon. Breezy. High 48-55 before midday, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy, still breezy. Low 23-30.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Thursday:Becoming cloudy with rain likely, changing to snow across central/southern NH and into central MA, tapering off and ending late at night. High 37-44.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, chance for a few snow showers. High 32-39.

New Year’s Eve:A mix of sun and clouds, still breezy. Light snow develops towards daybreak, except rain along the South Coast and across the Cape. High 26-33.

New Year’s Day: Cloudy with any snow changing over to light rain across the region, ending late in the day. High 36-43.

What will January bring? Well, at least one model says that temperatures will be above normal, with near normal precipitation. That likely means we wouldn’t see a lot of snow around here.

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The CFS model says that January will be warmer than normal. Will that be the case? We’ll find out. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook December 19-25, 2016

“I’m dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.”

Sorry Bing, it looks like you’ll need to keep dreaming again this year. It’s not going to be in the 60s like last year, but it’s probably not going to be white either. The week will start off quiet though, which is a welcome change from the rollercoaster we’ve been on for the past few days. High pressure builds in with dry and cold conditions for Monday, but temperatures will gradually moderate Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure slides off to the south and east of New England. Another system passes to our north on Thursday, with some snow or rain showers expected. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, giving us some nice weather for those last-minute trips to the mall, so that you can finally start your Christmas or Hanukkah shopping. As for Christmas Day itself, for now, it looks to start off dry, but another storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes, possibly sending some rain or snow into the region at night. We’ll have more on that system latr in the week as the details become a bit clearer.

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Remember how warm Christmas was last year? Yeah, it won’t be that warm this year. Image provided by Plymouth State University.

If you’re wondering when we might be looking at another snowstorm, you can probably flip your calendar to 2017. The final week of 2016 looks mild for now, though we’ll need to keep an eye on the timeframe around New Year’s Eve, as at least one model is hinting that something could be brewing around then.

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The week in between Christmas and New Year’s looks like it may feature above normal temperatures. Image provided by NOAA.

 

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 22-29.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 7-14.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 28-35.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 22-29.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 36-43.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers possible. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 40-47.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance of rain or snow at night. High 39-46.

Here at Storm HQ, we’d like to wish a Happy Christmakwanzakah to you and yours! (And a joyous Festivus to the rest of us!)

Weekly Outlook: December 12-18, 2016

Well, after a week of sunshine and summer-like warmth in Florida and the Bahamas, it’s back to reality for your favorite forecasters here at Storm HQ. And man, is that reality going to be harsh.

As this post is being written, snow is breaking out across Southern New England, with a change to rain already occurring across the Cape. That rain/snow line will gradually head northward early Monday morning, reaching southern New Hampshire by mid-to-late morning, though we could see a period of sleet and/or freezing rain before everything goes over to all rain. It looks like everything ends by early afternoon. While we’re not looking at a lot of snow, the combination of snow and or mixed precipitation will make a mess of the morning commute, so keep that in mind when you head out the door in the morning.

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Expected snowfall before a change to rain occurs Monday. Many of you won’t even need to shovel. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once the storm pulls away, high pressure builds in for Monday night and Tuesday, with drier and seasonably cool conditions expected. Wednesday could be an interesting day. Right now, it looks like we’ll stay dry as a storm system passes south of the region. However, some of the models bring the storm a little farther north, which could result in some rain or snow, especially south of Boston. Once that passes by, an arctic cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Some snow squalls may accompany the front, but what’s behind it will get your attention. While Thursday will be a rather chilly day, Thursday night and Friday will feature some of the coldest air so far this season, with lows possibly dropping into the single numbers virtually everywhere Friday morning, and highs Friday afternoon staying in the teens and lower 20s. Wind chills will be well below zero, especially in the morning. The good news is that the cold air will be short-lived. As a storm system heads into the Great Lakes next weekend, south to southwest winds will pump warmer air into the region. Snow will develop ahead of the system on Saturday, but should change over to rain as warmer air moves in both aloft and at the surface. In fact, Sunday could even feature above normal temperatures, though it could also be accompanied by some rainfall. We’ll worry about that storm later i n the week.

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Break out the arctic gear Friday morning. Wind chills will be below zero. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain changing to all rain from south to north during the morning, ending by mid-afternoon. Some clearing developing late in the day. High 36-43 from the Merrimack Valley northward, 43-50 south of the Merrimack Valley.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low 24-31.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for rain or snow south of Boston late in the day and at night. High 33-4o.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for snow squalls. High 21-28.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy, and cold. High 14-21.

Saturday: Becoming cloudy with snow developing, likely changing to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain at night. High 30-37.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain tapering off and ending. High 40-47, though there is the potential for temperatures to jump well into the 50s, especially from Boston southward..

Weekly Outlook?

By now, you’re probably wondering why the weekly outlook hasn’t been posted, especially since it was snowing. Here at StormHQ, we’re taking a little time off, for a vacation in the tropics. Don’t worry, we’ll be back next week. Until then, enjoy the snow (or complain about it), while we enjoy sunshine and temperatures in the 80s in Florida and the Bahamas.

Weekly Outlook: November 28-December 4, 2016

Here we are, in the final days of November and the beginning of December, ad we’re staring at not one but two storms this week that could bring us heavy precipitation. Of course, that precipitation will be nearly all rain, but we definitely need it, as we’re still in the midst of a drought.

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To say that rainfall has been below normal around here for quite some time would be a big understatement. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week starts off on a sunny but chilly note thanks to high pressure. You’d better enjoy that sunshine though, because once it disappears behind afternoon clouds, you won’t see it again until Thursday. The first storm system moves through on Tuesday, giving us a good dose of rainfall. Things could be tricky to start though. The rain may arrive before daybreak on Tuesday. With cool weather still in place, temperatures may be close to freezing across central and southern New Hampshire when the rain arrives. This could result in a little freezing rain in some areas, so you may want to be careful heading out the door early Tuesday morning. Temperatures should be above freezing across the region by late morning, ending any potential icing threat. South of Boston, it could be a much different story. Gusty southerly winds could send temperatures well into the 50s on Tuesday. The rain tapers off and ends Tuesday evening, but the next storm will be quickly approaching from the west. This storm will likely head up the St. Lawrence Valley, keeping the entire region mild, but with another round of heavy rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Colder air settles in behind that storm, and with an upper-level low pressure area moving through, we could see a few rain or snow showers on Friday. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

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The GFS model is forecasting 1.5-3″ of rain across the region through late Thursday. We need even more to break the drought. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, dimmed by afternoon cloudiness. High 39-46.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy with rain developing towards daybreak, possibly starting as some freezing rain in central and southern New Hampshire. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Becoming breezy along the south coast. High 45-52 north of Route 2, 52-59 south of Route 2.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off and ending in the evening. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: Cloudy and becoming breezy with rain redeveloping by midday. High 48-55.

Thursday: Any lingering showers ending in the morning, otherwise becoming partly sunny and breezy. High 48-55, except 55-60 south and east of I-95.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, slight chance for a rain or snow shower. High 43-50.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 39-46.

Sunday: Intervals of sun and clouds. High 37-44.

We do need to keep an eye on the start of the following week. Most of the models are indicating that a storm system may impact the region Monday into Tuesday. However, there is very little agreement among the models on how strong the storm might be, how heavy the precipitation might be, and what type of precipitation may fall. So, we’re not going to go into any more details at this time. We’re just giving you the heads up to keep an eye on future forecasts.

Thanksgiving Forecast

(borrowed from Elliot Abrams)

Turkeys will finish thawing Thanksgiving morning, then warm in the oven to a high near 190 in the afternoon. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and early evening hours, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey and cause it to accumulate 1-2 inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other, especially if it mixes in as you turn to the green bean casserole. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch has been issued for the entire area and we expect intervals of indigestion, with increasing stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers and drop to a low of 34 in the refrigerator.

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday: high pressure to eat sandwiches; flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50% chance of scattered soup during the midday hours. We expect a warming trend baste on where soup develops.

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Weekly Outlook: November 21-27, 2016

If you’re planning to head “over the river and through the woods to grandfather’s house” for your Thanksgiving dinner, well, you won’t need a sleigh to get there. You will probably need a coat and maybe an umbrella too.

If the snowflakes that many of us saw Sunday evening weren’t enough of a hint, the wind chill when you step outside today will be a bigger one – we’re moved into a colder pattern. Don’t worry, there still aren’t any big snowstorms in the immediate future, but there also aren’t any days where you can walk around in shorts and be comfortable.

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Wind chills will be in the upper teens and 20s when many of you head out to work or school Monday morning. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with low pressure moving across Northern New England and into Atlantic Canada. This will result in blustery (there’s a word you only hear used in the winter) and cool conditions for Monday and Tuesday. A few more snow showers are possible on Monday as an upper-level low pressure area swings through the region.High pressure briefly builds in for Wednesday, but the next storm system will be moving eastward right on its heels. Thanksgiving will be mainly cloudy with a few showers possible, and some wet snow could mix in if the showers arrive early enough in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. Black Friday starts off dry (if you’re heading out for the Midnight Specials), but another weak system will quickly approach, with more showers possible by evening, continuing into Saturday when a period of steadier rain is possible. Blustery (there’s that word again!) and cool conditions return on Sunday.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, chance for a few snow or rain showers. High 33-40.

Monday night: Partly cloudy to clear, breezy. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, still breezy. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: A sunny start, then clouds return in the afternoon. High 37-44.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly mixed with some wet snow early in the day. High 39-46.

Friday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a few showers, especially late in the day and at night. High 43-50.

Saturday: Rain tapers off to showers before ending late in the day. High 42-49.

Sunday:A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 40-47.

Before you complain about how cold it is, just remember, it could be a LOT worse. Over in Siberia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, temperatures today will be 20 to 40 below zero. That’s 30 to 50 or more degrees below normal. Our temperatures, while chilly, will “only” be 10-15 degrees below normal today.

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Temperatures in Central and Eastern Asia will be 15-30 degrees C (25-50F) below normal today. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.

Weekly Outlook: November 14-20, 2016

Once again, we’ve got another fairly quiet week coming up across the region, with little to talk about. That’s a good thing, because we’re into the middle of November now, and it’s only a matter of time until things get more complicated. (Don’t worry, we’re not going to use the S-Word).

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The National Weather Service is expected a very warm day on Monday. We’re not sure it’ll get quite this mild, but it’ll still be a fantastic day. Image provided by WeatherBell.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, giving us a sunny, mild day today. Tuesday is the complicated day of the week. A storm system will move up the coast, giving us some rain and cooler temperatures, mainly north of Boston. Of course, “cooler” is a relative term, as even though Tuesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Monday, we’ll still be near or a little above normal for mid-November. South of Boston, temperatures could spike back into the 50s to near 60 again on Tuesday, depending on the exact track the storm takes. Once the storm goes by on Wednesday, high pressure builds back in, with drier weather for much of the remainder of the week, along with another warming trend. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if temperatures on Friday and Saturday ended up even warmer than what we have in the forecast below. Another system moves in this weekend with some showers and cooler conditions, but again, things could be a lot worse at this time of year.

How much worse could it be? Consider this. The cold front that will give us showers over the weekend will be extending southward from a storm moving into northern Quebec. Before it gets there, it will be quite a strong storm moving across the Nation’s mid-section later this week. It will likely produce blizzard conditions across the Dakotas, with heavy snow, wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph, and very cold temperatures. How cold? How does sub-zero low temperatures sound next Sunday morning with 1-2 feet of fresh snow cover sound? Aren’t you glad that you don’t live in Bismarck, North Dakota?

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GFS model forecast for snowfall through next Sunday morning across the Dakotas. Image provided by WeatherBell.
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GFS model forecast for low temperatures next Sunday morning across the Dakotas. Image provided by WeatherBell.

 

Monday: Mostly sunny for much of the day, clouds start to filter in by evening. High 57-64.

Monday night: Becoming cloudy, showers developing towards daybreak along the south coast. Low 36-43.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, thought a few pockets of steadier and heavier rain are possible. High 47-54 north and west of Boston, 54-61 from Boston southward.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers tapering off and ending. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Morning clouds give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. High 53-60.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 50-57.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 52-59.

Saturday: Mostly sunny to start, then clouds start to increase late in the day. High 50-57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 47-54.

Weekly Outlook: November 7-13, 2016

The votes are in – most of this week will feature some decent weather. However, it’s not all good news. Mother Nature has elected to remind us that it’s November, and it looks like we’re going to have our inaugural visit of arctic air next weekend.

We’ll start the week with high pressure giving us sunshine and cool temperatures on Monday. As the high slides offshore, we’ll warm up on Tuesday. A weak cold front moves through on Wednesday, but we’ll only see a few showers with the front. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday before the next cold front comes through Friday night. Then, we get to the weekend. Hope you’ve got your heavier jackets out of the closet, because you’ll need them. Gusty northwest to northerly winds will not only bring in some of the coldest air so far this season, they’ll also re-introduce a phrase you haven’t heard in several months – “wind chill”. Oh, and there’s even the chance for a few rain or snow showers (yes, we said the s-word).

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Heading out to walk the dog or take a run Saturday morning? Bundle up, wind chills might be in the 20s! Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 46-53.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 57-64.

Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some afternoon showers possible. High 53-60.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Friday: A sunny start, then clouds move in, becoming windy. High 50-57.

Saturday: Intervals of sun and clouds, windy, chance for a rain or snow shower. High 38-45.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 43-50.

If you’re worried about an early season snowstorm, you can stop. There doesn’t appear to be anything of note to worry about over the next couple of weeks. It’s fairly rare to have a snowstorm this early in the season around here. Sure, there are a few examples (Snowtober 2011, Veterans Day 1987), but normally, you need to get into late November, or more likely December, before we get a true “snowstorm” around here. For now, we only have to worry about the crapstorm known as the Election for 2 more days.

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Snowfall forecast for the next 16 days from each of the 22 members of the GFS Ensemble. Most of them show little to no snow for our area. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Weekly Outlook: October 31-November 6, 2016

There’s nothing spooky about the forecast this week. Most of the week will be a treat, with very little in the way of tricks.OK, now that we’ve got the requisite back Halloween puns out of the way, we can get to the actual forecast.

High pressure will keep the region dry today and Tuesday. A weak system passes by to the north Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing in some clouds, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see any precipitation.While we’ll be cool today and tomorrow, we will start to warm up on Wednesday. While Thursday will also be warm, we’ll be dealing with rain by afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. The rain will continue into Thursday night, but be gone by the time you wake up Friday morning. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday with cool conditions returning. Another weak system comes through on Sunday, with some additional showers expected.

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At least one model thinks we’re in for a good dose of rainfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Considering how bad things can get around here for Halloween, this week’s forecast isn’t that bad. Just 4 years ago, we were cleaning up after Sandy. Just one year earlier, we were digging out from a record blizzard. Also, 25 years ago, the so-called “Perfect Storm” was battering the region.

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Snowfall from the Halloween Snowstorm of 2011. Image provided by NOAA.

Monday: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Mostly clear skies. Low 28-35.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 38-45.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 61-68.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely in the afternoon and evening. High 63-70.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 46-53.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 47-54.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers. High 45-52.