As we get ready to celebrate America’s 250th, some very hot weather will be here for a few days.
Friday will be another hot day before relief starts moving in on Saturday. Image provided by weathermodels.com
A ridge of high pressure continues to provide the eastern half of the nation with hot and humid conditions into Saturday. Daytime temperatures well into the 90s, combined with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s, will make it feel like 100-105 at times. Not much relief comes at night, with lows only in the 70s tonight through Friday night, with places like downtown Boston possibly not falling below 80. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, but they’ll be a bit more numerous Friday afternoon and evening. The Fourth of July is the transition day, and unfortunately, with plenty of outdoor gatherings planned, they could be impacted. A cold front will drop southward, but ahead of it, we’re going to have another hot and humid day, with most places topping 90 again. However, the front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Some of these storms may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds, so keep an eye to the sky (or the radar) if you’ll be outside. Hopefully the storms will end before evening, allowing many fireworks celebrations to proceed. Welcome relief arrives on Sunday with cooler and drier air. Cool is a relative term, and most places will still be in the 80s, which is right around or a little above normal. Monday is the day with the most uncertainty at this point. That front will stall out south of New England, and as we get to Monday a wave of low pressure will ride along it. Some models bring in some showers with the wave during the afternoon, some wait until nighttime. We’re going to be cautiously optimistic that most if the day remains dry at this point, but that is far from guaranteed.
Will the rain arrive Monday afternoon or wait until nightfall? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Mostly clear, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the evening. Low 72-79.
Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds, a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93-100, cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Low 72-79.
Fourth of July: A mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly in the afternoon. High 89-96.
Saturday night: Any showers or storms end in the evening, clear to partly cloudy overnight. Low 65-72.
Sunday: Partly sunny, not as humid. High 81-88, cooler near the coast.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for showers late in the day. High 72-79.
The hype train has left the station and is barreling down the tracks at high speed. Unlike winter, when the hype is all about an impending snowstorm, this time, it’s about heat and humidity.
Some warm and muggy nights are likely later this week with lows in the 70s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is going to set up shop across the eastern part of the nation later this week. This will result in very hot and humid weather for much of the eastern half of the nation, especially during the latter half of the week. Around here, it’s going to get hot, but will we get the extreme heat that many in the media are already proclaiming is a lock? We’re not quite so confident.
A ridge of high pressure will bring heat to the eastern half of the nation this week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Before we get there, let’s talk about the first part of the week, which starts off with a rather nice day today with high pressure building in. We’ll have sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and moderate humidity levels. That high will move offshore on Tuesday, and a warm front extending from low pressure over the nation’s mid-section will approach our area. As the warm front moves in, some showers and thunderstorms are likely late in the day and into the evening. Some of these storms could be quite strong, with damaging winds and heavy downpours the main threats. We need all the rain we can get with the ongoing drought, but too much in a short-period results in areas of flooding.
Thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday, but severe weather should stay to our north and west, Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hot and humid air then settles in for Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures likely top 90 away from the South Coast on Wednesday, then Thursday and Friday appear to be the hottest days right now, but how hot will it get? Many forecast models are showing temperatures near or over 100, and all of the Facebook Forecasters (as well as many in the local media) have been quick to post these maps like it is locked in and a virtual certainty. Well, we’re here to tell you that it isn’t. Not yet at least. Not every model is showing widespread triple-digit heat. Seabreezes will keep coastal areas cooler. There’s also something that the models don’t handle that well that will have an impact. In this pattern, a common occurrence is for thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, then ride along the jet stream over the top of that ridge, then dive southeastward towards New York and New England. These clusters usually end up around here late at night or first thing in the morning. Sometimes, it’s just weakening storms, sometimes they remain quite potent, even severe at times. The models are notoriously bad at picking these out more than 24 hours or so in advance. If the timing is a little off, and the clouds and/or showers hang around a little later into the morning, then it’s not going to get nearly as hot as the models are currently showing. It’s also worth mentioning that there won’t be a lot of relief at night, especially Wednesday Night and Thursday night, when temperatures will likely not drop below 70, and urban areas may not drop below 80.
Could some places reach 100 on Thursday? It’s possible, but not likely, at least for now. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As we get to the end of the week and the weekend, another complicating factor is a backdoor cold front dropping down from the north. Behind it, relatively cooler and drier air will settle in, with heat and humidity remaining in place to the south. When will this front move through? How far south does it get before it stalls out? Will it retreat northward as a warm front again before the weekend is over, bringing the hot and humid air back in? Will there be some showers and thunderstorms along this front? All of these factors result in a highly uncertain temperature forecast for later Friday and into the weekend. Since it’s Fourth of July weekend, there are lots of outdoor plans being made, and the forecast is an important part of that. For now, plan for it to be very warm, and keep an eye to the sky (or the radar), but be aware that the forecast still can change.
Will it still be hot for the Fourth of July or will it cool off a little? Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Bottom line: Yes, it will get hot and humid for at least a few days later this week, but how hot and for how long remains uncertain, despite what you may see or read elsewhere. We’ll likely do a special blog post about this on Tuesday or Wednesday when things are a little more clear (hopefully), in addition to our normal Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Wednesday through Friday is the most likely time that we may see significant heat and humidity. Image provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norton, MA.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 81-88, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, becoming breezy, chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 83-90, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, tapering off overnight, some late-night clearing. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 89-96, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Low 68-75.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 93-100, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear. Low 70-77.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92-99, cooler across Cape Cod.
Fourth of July: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 86-93, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
The first full weekend of summer will feature some nice weather for part, but not all of the weekend.
Showers and storms are likely tonight, possibly Friday afternoon, and again Saturday morning. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
Low pressure heading into southeastern Canada will send a warm front our way tonight. Clouds will thicken up ahead of it with some showers and thunderstorms likely overnight and into Friday morning as the front moves through. Warm and humid air then moves in for Friday, but how much sunshine we’ll see is a question and that has a big impact on the forecast. Obviously more sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures, but with a cold front approaching later in the day, we’ll have the potential for some severe weather. The more sunshine, the higher the risk. The biggest threats with any storms will be damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. We need all the rain we can get to help with the ongoing drought, but too much in a short period of time will result in flooding, as we saw in Fall River a few days ago.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
The front will slow down as it pushes offshore Friday night and another wave of low pressure will ride along it, bringing some showers to parts of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts Saturday morning. They could get as far north as Route 44, but this is uncertain at this point. We should see clearing from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. High pressure builds in with drier weather for Sunday and Monday, though we could see a few popup showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with an upper level disturbance moving across the Northeast.
Monday will be the warmest day of the next few. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Thursday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight. Low 58-65.
Friday: Showers end in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine with a chance for more showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, late in the day. High 74-81.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy, any lingering showers end in the evening. Low 60-67.
Saturday: Morning clouds with showers across parts of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, then skies start to clear out from northwest to southeast. High 73-80.
“When in drought, leave it out”. You’ve heard us repeat this numerous times. We’re in a drought, and have been for a while. Many recent storm systems have failed to bring significant rainfall to the region. That will not be the case with the next storm.
Rainfall totals over the past 6 months are well below normal. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and towards southern New England. With the system expected to pass close to or just south of the region, the associated warm front will also remain south of the area. This will reduce or likely eliminate the threat for severe weather. There will be some thunderstorms, but we’re just looking at periods of rain, potentially heavy at times. The rain will move in by afternoon, and continue into the evening, but likely doesn’t end until Tuesday morning or early afternoon. While most of the models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain for at least parts of the region, they still do not agree at this point on where the heaviest rain will fall, or how much will actually fall.
Most of the models show the potential for heavy rain for at least part of the region later today and Tuesday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Once the system pulls away, high pressure builds in with drier weather for Wednesday into Thursday. Another frontal system will bring in some showers and thunderstorms for Thursday night and Friday, then high pressure returns with dry and warm weather for the weekend.
Temperatures should be mostly above normal for the end of the week and the weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy with rain developing by early afternoon. High 73-80.
Monday night: Periods of rain and showers, possibly a thunderstorm. The rain may be heavy at times. Low 58-65.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies with showers gradually ending from west to east in the afternoon, some heavy downpours are still possible at times. High 69-76.
Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 77-84.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Low 57-64.
Thursday: Morning sun, then increasing late-day clouds. High 78-85.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers possible late at night. Low 60-67.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.
Astronomical summer starts at 4:24am on Sunday, and we’ll start things off with some rather nice weather.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s on Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will come to an end this evening as a cold front pushes offshore, with gradual clearing tonight. High pressure builds in for Friday with sunshine and lower humidity, but we’ll still have some clouds around with an upper-level disturbance nearby. We’ll have some gusty winds behind the front Friday, but they’ll start to diminish on Saturday, with more sunshine and low humidity. Sunday is the transition day, as another low pressure system heads our way. Most of the day will be dry and warm, but clouds will be streaming in ahead of the system, and humidity levels will slowly start to rise again. We could see a few late-day showers, but it looks like most of the rain will hold off until Monday. With the drought continuing to get worse, we need all the rain we can get. Many of the forecast models show the system on Monday bringing in some widespread rainfall, potentially heavy. However, we’ve seen this several times over the past few months. All of the models show a good soaking rain coming in, giving us some drought relief, and by the time the system gets here, the heavy rain either goes into Northern New England or across the Mid-Atlantic states, and around here we just end up with some scattered showers. We’ve mentioned a few times the old saying – “When in drought, leave it out”, so we’re skeptical that we’re going to get the widespread rains the models are forecasting. Until it actually happens, we need to see it to believe it.
Many models show the potential for some heavy rain for at least parts of the region on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight. Low 59-66.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, less humid. High 76-83.
Friday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, still breezy. High 75-82.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny to start, some clouds start to filter in, chance for a late-day shower. High 76-83.
Sunday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Astronomical summer begins this coming Sunday at 4:24AM, but summer weather will be here for much of the week.
Drier air will move in today with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and upper 40s. Image provided by weathermodels.com
We start off the week with a cold front pushing offshore this morning, taking the last of the showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind that front, high pressure builds in with seasonably mild temperatures, lower humidity, and a good amount of sunshine for today and Tuesday. By Wednesday, we’ll be watching a low pressure area heading into the Great Lakes. It will send a warm front our way at night, with some clouds moving in ahead of it, but the day itself will be mostly dry and seasonably warm. A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the warm front Wednesday night, but the more noticeable effect will be an increase in humidity levels once again. Thursday could be an active day as low pressure moves into southern Canada, dragging a cold front across the region. With a warm and humid airmass in place, the front could trigger showers and thunderstorms during the daytime, with the potential for some of them to become strong to severe later in the day. Right now it’s just potential, but the ingredients are forecast by some of the models to be in place for some severe storms. This is something we’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few days. High pressure builds in behind the front with cooler and drier conditions for Friday and the weekend.
Drought conditions continue to worsen, and little help is expected this week. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Monday: Any lingering showers or thunderstorms end early, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 78-85.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 74-81.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 75-82.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, chance for a late-night shower. Low 55-62.
Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy, becoming humid, showers and thunderstorms developing. High 76-83, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening. Low 61-68.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, not as humid. High 79-86.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 77-84.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 75-82.
Very warm to hot weather will continue through the weekend, but the humidity won’t.
A heat advisory is in effect for much of the region away from the coastline through Friday evening. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
High pressure anchored off the East Coast will continue to pump hot and humid air into the region on southwest winds for another day or so, but some relief is on the way. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible through the evening, but they should gradually dissipate, leaving us with a warm and muggy night. Friday will also be hot and humid for most of the region, but a backdoor cold front will slip down the coast, bringing relief to coastal portions of Maine and New Hampshire, as well as the North Shore and likely the Boston area by midday. It probably won’t get too far inland, and may not get to the South Shore, but behind that front, temperatures will be in the 70s and lower 80s, compared to upper 80s and lower 90s inland. The South Coast and Cape Cod will be cooler as well, with southwest winds acting as a seabreeze. There could be a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
It’ll feel like the mid-to-upper 90s for much of the region Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A stronger cold front moves in from the west Friday night, producing a few more showers and thunderstorms overnight. Behind that front we’ll clear out on Saturday. It will remain quite warm, with most places getting well into the 80s, but humidity levels will be much lower. Some clouds will start to filter back in on Sunday as another front moves toward the region, but again, most of the day will be dry and very warm. That front may produce a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, then we’ll see drier and cooler weather return for Monday.
Dewpoints will drop into the 50s behind a cold front on Saturday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, any showers and thunderstorms taper off and end during the evening. Low 65-72.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 86-93, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod. Coastal areas from Boston northward may turn cooler in the afternoon.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms expected, skies start to clear out late at night. Low 63-70.
Saturday: Sun, sun, and more sun, much less humid. High 84-91, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61-68.
Sunday: Sunshine slowly fades behind increasing clouds, breezy. High 85-92, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms. Low 60-67.
Some typical June weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Temperatures should be well above normal this week. Image provided by weathermodels.com
We start the week off on a cool note with high pressure building in from Canada. We’ll have plenty of sunshine today, but east to northeast winds off the still cool Atlantic will keep temperatures on the cool side today, especially near the coastline. As the high slides southward on Tuesday and anchors itself off the East Coast, a ridge of high pressure will start build in aloft, resulting in a warming trend. With sunshine continuing on Tuesday, southwest winds will help many locations top 80 away from the South Coast and Cape Cod. Much of the remainder of the week will feature hot and increasingly humid conditions, with a daily chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances cross the region. The exception could be later Thursday into part of Friday, when we may see a backdoor cold front trying to bring in some cooler air, especially along the coast. This is far from a certainty, and even if it does occur, it would lift northward again by Saturday, allowing the heat and humidity to return. A stronger cold front may begin to move in from the west on Sunday.
Friday could be quite toasty, but it also could be considerably cooler near the east coast. Imaged provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 73-80, a little cooler along the coast and across Cape Cod.
Monday night: Clear skies. Low 50-57.
Tuesday: Plenty of sunshine. High 81-88, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 57-64.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun, breezy, chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 82-89, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, a few showers or thunderstorms possible during the evening. Low 60-67.
Thursday: Partly sunny, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 83-90, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod, temperatures could turn cooler during the afternoon across eastern areas.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Friday: Partly sunny, a late-day shower possible. High 83-90, possibly cooler across eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Sunday: Partly sunny, afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
The weekend will start with heat and humidity, but that won’t last the entire weekend.
If we get enough sunshine, Saturday could be quite toasty inland. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure building in south of the region will result in increasing heat and humidity for Friday and Saturday. While we’ll have a few clouds around during the day on Friday, they’ll become more widespread on Saturday as a cold front begins dropping southward from Canada. A shower or thunderstorm is possible Saturday afternoon, but most of the activity should stay well north and west of our area. Showers and thunderstorms should become more widespread Saturday evening and night. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front on Sunday, bringing in more showers with much cooler temperatures, especially near the coast. We’re not expecting a soaking rain, but any rain we get will help with the ongoing drought. Unfortunately, the rain will fall on Sunday, so it will lead to a lot of complaints about another rainy weekend, despite the fact that most of Saturday will be dry. High pressure builds in for Monday with drier weather along with seasonably mild conditions.
Most of the models aren’t forecasting heavy rain for Saturday night and Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 55-62.
Friday: Sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 83-90, cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 59-66.
Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, becoming humid, slight chance for a late-day shower or thunderstorm. High 85-92, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing, possibly a thunderstorm. Low 60-67.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds with occasional showers. High 76-83, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday night: Showers end in the evening becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low 50-57.
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, not as humid. High 66-73.
Meteorological Summer starts today (as does Hurricane Season), but it’s still astronomical Spring, and today will feel like it.
We could be well into the 80s by the end of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
An upper-level low pressure system will remain in place across the Northeast for a couple more days, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of where they should be at this time of year. A few lingering showers are possible this morning as a surface low pressure area pulls away, with some clearing in the afternoon. Tuesday will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will quickly develop during the morning, with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with dry and warmer weather for Wednesday through Friday. We do need to keep an eye on a developing ocean storm, but at this point, it looks to remain too far offshore to have any impacts here. By Saturday, we’ll be watching a cold front starting to approach the region. That front may bring some showers and cooler conditions for Saturday night and Sunday, but the exact timing of both the front and the showers is still a bit of a question that we hope to have a better handle on when it is time for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The models do not agree on what will happen on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Lingering showers end in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 57-64, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then clouds pop up with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 47-54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 71-78, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 78-85, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 73-80.
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