Meteorological Summer starts today (as does Hurricane Season), but it’s still astronomical Spring, and today will feel like it.
We could be well into the 80s by the end of the week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
An upper-level low pressure system will remain in place across the Northeast for a couple more days, keeping temperatures on the cooler side of where they should be at this time of year. A few lingering showers are possible this morning as a surface low pressure area pulls away, with some clearing in the afternoon. Tuesday will start off with some sunshine, but clouds will quickly develop during the morning, with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon. High pressure then builds in with dry and warmer weather for Wednesday through Friday. We do need to keep an eye on a developing ocean storm, but at this point, it looks to remain too far offshore to have any impacts here. By Saturday, we’ll be watching a cold front starting to approach the region. That front may bring some showers and cooler conditions for Saturday night and Sunday, but the exact timing of both the front and the showers is still a bit of a question that we hope to have a better handle on when it is time for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
The models do not agree on what will happen on Sunday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Lingering showers end in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 57-64, coolest along the coast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-48.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then clouds pop up with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 66-73.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy to clear. Low 47-54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 71-78, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 78-85, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 81-88, cooler across Cape Cod.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 80-87, cooler across Cape Cod.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun with a chance for showers. High 73-80.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Monday June 1 and runs through November 30, and most forecasts are showing the potential for a less active season, thanks to a developing El Nino in the Pacific.
List of names for storms that form during the 2026 Hurricane Season. Image provided by NOAA.
The 2025 season was a near normal season by the numbers, with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The season got off to a slower start than recent years, with only 3 storms through the end of July, and 6 through late August. The normal peak of hurricane season is late August and the first 3 weeks of September, but 2025 featured a complete absence of activity during that period. After Tropical Storm Fernand dissipate on August 27, there were no storms at all until Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed on September 17. That was the first of 7 named storms over the next 6 weeks, but once Hurricane Melissa dissipated on Halloween, there were no additional storms for the rest of the season. Hurricane Melissa was not only the strongest storm of the season, it was one of the strongest ever recorded in the basin. While stalling out south of Jamaica it rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds near 190 mph, and a central pressure of 892mb not long before slamming into western Jamaica. The sustained winds of 190 are tied with 2019’s Hurricane Dorian, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the strongest on record in the Atlantic basin. The lowest central pressure of 892mb is tied with the 1935 Labor Day storm for the 3rd lowest on record in the Atlantic, trailing only the 882mb reading in 2005’s Hurricane Wilma, and the 888mb reading in 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert. It also is tied with the 1935 Labor Day storm for the lowest pressure on record at landfall. After the season was over, the name Melissa was retired and removed from the 6-year list of storm names. It will be replaced by Molly in 2031. Melissa is the 100th storm name to be retired in the Atlantic.
Radar loop showing Hurricane Melissa approaching Jamaica. Loop provided by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.
Only one storm made landfall in the US in 2025 – Tropical Storm Chantal, which had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph when its center moved ashore near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina early on July 6. The one landfall is a welcome change from recent years that featured multiple storms making landfall in the US, many of them as hurricanes. In 2021, a total of 8 tropical systems made landfall in the United States, but only 2 at hurricane strength. That includes 2 tropical storms that made landfall in New England that summer – Elsa and Henri. Both Elsa and Henri each made landfall near Westerly, Rhode Island about 6 weeks apart. This was just the 5th time since 1851 that two tropical systems made landfall in Southern New England or Long Island in the same year, and only the 2nd time (1961 being the other), that both storms were only tropical storm strength. (We’ll have more info on New England tropical systems a little later in this post).
2025 was a less active hurricane season than previous years. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts for the upcoming season are calling for a season that features below normal activity, due to a developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. In fact, there are many forecasts out there calling for a very strong El Nino. In general, where there is an El Nino present, activity in the Atlantic is suppressed, due mainly to increasing wind shear. However, this is not always the case, as El Nino is just one factor. In 2023, we had a strong El Nino in place for much of the hurricane season, and there were 20 named storms that season, making it the fourth most-active season on record. Of those 20 storms, 7 became hurricanes, and 3 were major hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia slammed into the Florida Big Bend region as a Category 3 storm. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are below normal for a large portion of the basin right now, especially in the Main Development Region, but they are forecast to warm to near to above normal levels, which tends to result in more storms.
Sea surface temperatures are below normal right now across much of the Tropical Atlantic and much of the Caribbean. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
NOAA issued their seasonal hurricane outlook on May 21, and it calls for a 55 percent chance for a below normal season, a 35 percent chance for a near normal season, and just a 10 percent chance for an above normal season. Most of the other hurricane outlooks issued by various outlets are also expecting a near to below normal season, due to the signals mentioned above. An average season consists of 14.4 named storms, of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). NOAA’s forecast for this season calls for 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, the first group to forecast how active a hurricane season would be, originally led by the late Dr. Bill Gray, will issue their updated forecast on June 10. Their initial forecast from April called for a below average season, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. They also pegged the chance at a storm making landfall in the Massachusetts at 24% (33% is the average in any given year), and the odds of a hurricane making landfall in Massachusetts at 10% (14% is the average). Overall, 8 of the past 10 hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity across the Atlantic.
Tropical activity in the Atlantic is expected to be below normal this season. Image provided by NOAA.
Despite the early start for the many of the past several years, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is still June 20, and the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Over 97% of all named storms in the Atlantic form between June 1 and November 30. Most early season storms tend to be on the weaker side, as water temperatures are cooler, and wind shear is usually a little stronger. A hurricane hasn’t made landfall in the United States before July 1 since Hurricane Bonnie came ashore as a minimal hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 26, 1986.
Based on climatology, the most likely spots for an early season storm are off the Southeast coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, or the northwestern Caribbean. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
The number of storms that form in any given season has no correlation on how many storms (if any) will impact the United States. In 2010, 19 named storms were observed in the Atlantic, 12 of them became hurricanes, and 5 were major hurricanes. Only one storm made landfall in the United States, and that was Bonnie, which was a minimal tropical storm at landfall. In 1990, there were a total 14 named storms, 8 of them hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Not a single one of them made landfall in the United States. On the flip side, only 7 named storms formed in 1992, and the first one didn’t develop until August 16. That storm, however, was named Andrew, and it made landfall just south of Miami as a category 5 storm. It only takes one storm to ruin your entire year.
Map showing the track of all of the hurricanes that crossed New England single 1851. Image provided by NOAA.
Here in New England, we should always pay attention when a storm is nearing the Bahamas, as those are the ones that have the potential to impact us, and we are extremely overdue for a hurricane to make landfall. Using the HURDAT database which has data back to 1851, here are some stats that show exactly how overdue we are:
Since 1851, 39 storms of tropical storm strength of greater have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 4.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 11 years, between 1897 and 1908 and also between 1923 and 1934. In 2021, we had two tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region, so it’s been 5 years, which means we are due for another.
Since 1851, 32 strong tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or more) have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 5.5 years. The longest we’ve ever gone without one is 19 years, between 1897 and 1916. In 2021, we had two strong tropical storms (Elsa and Henri) make landfall in the region.
Since 1851, a hurricane has made landfall in New England or Long Island 18 times, an average of one every 9.7 years. The longest we’ve ever gone between hurricane landfalls is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934. It’s now been 35 years since Hurricane Bob, our 2nd longest drought on record.
Since 1851, 8 hurricanes of Category 2 intensity or stronger have made landfall in New England or Long Island, an average of one every 21.9 years. The longest we’ve gone between hits by storms of that intensity is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. We’re at 35 years since Bob, the last one to do so.
Since 1851, New England/Long Island has had 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) make landfall – an unnamed storm in October of 1869 that grazed the eastern tip of Long Island before making landfall just west of Charlestown, RI; the infamous 1938 Long Island Express that made landfall near Brookhaven, NY and then again near New Haven, CT; and Hurricane Carol in 1954 which crossed East Hampton, NY and then made a 2nd landfall near Groton, CT. That’s an average of 1 every 58.3 years, and we’re now at 71 years since Carol, making this the longest stretch on record. There are also 3 documented storms from before 1851 – The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, the 1815 New England Hurricane, and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. That’s it. That changes the numbers to 6 in 391 years, or one every 65.2 years, with a longest drought of 180 years.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Bob approaching New England. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England – 35 years ago. Image provided by NOAA.
We all saw what Sandy did back in 2012, and that was a minimal hurricane that eventually made landfall in southern New Jersey (technically as an extratropical storm), though there were other factors that led to the amount of damage it caused. When (not if) the next big storm comes up the coast, much of this region will not be prepared for the storm or its aftermath. A storm doesn’t need to make a direct hit on New England to have significant impacts. In addition to Sandy, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991 was an offshore system that became a hurricane and battered the coastline with strong winds and significant coastal impacts for a few days around Halloween. In 1955, Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane both made landfall in North Carolina 5 days apart. Connie tracked into the eastern Great Lakes, but still produced some heavy rain in New England, especially western New England. A few days later, Diane passed just south of New England on its way out to sea, but produced widespread rainfall totals of 5-15 inches across most of southern New England, with 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. The combination of these back-to-back storms resulted in some of the worst flooding this region has ever seen.
Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Diane in August, 1995. Image provided by NOAA.
The Atlantic is quiet right now, but even if something were to form off the East Coast in the next few weeks and head this way, the waters off of New England are still much too cold to sustain a tropical system, so we’d see something more like a typical nor’easter. Only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in the Northeast before the end of June. The first was an unnamed minimal tropical storm that crossed extreme eastern Long Island and went into southeastern Connecticut on May 30, 1908. The other was Tropical Storm Agnes, which made landfall near New York City on June 22, 1972, then caused devastating flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. In terms of hurricanes, the earliest one to ever make landfall up this way was Hurricane Belle, which slammed into Long Island as a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds on August 9, 1976. We did have Hurricane Arthur pass just offshore of Nantucket on July 4, 2014. While it did not make landfall, it made for a rather wet and cool holiday, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Statistically, the most likely time for a hurricane to hit New England is between the middle of August and late September. Of the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in New England or Long Island since 1851, 15 of them have done so between August 19 and September 27.
The most likely time for a tropical system to impact our area is August of September. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
As always, you should get your weather information from a trusted source (hopefully you trust us), especially when dealing with tropical systems. Much like with snowstorms in the winter, there will be plenty of hype and exaggeration on Twitter and Facebook, as well as people posting doom and gloom maps showing how a thunderstorm near the coast of Africa will develop into a Category 5 storm and head right for the East Coast in the next 2 weeks. We’re not among that group, we give you facts and our best forecasts, without any hype. If there’s reason to worry, we’ll let you know with plenty of advance warning. It’s always best to prepare ahead of the season. Chances are, you won’t have anything to worry about, but in case you do, it’s always good to be prepared.
The internet has been doing its thing this week, so we’re here to separate hype from reality in terms of the weekend forecast.
A classic “Omega Block” pattern is setting up across the nation. Loop provided by Pivotal Weather.
The upper-level pattern across the country will settle into an “Omega Block” over the next days. With upper-level lows across the Pacific Northwest and in the Northeast, with a ridge of high pressure in the middle, the flow resembles the Greek letter Omega. This pattern does not allow systems to move across the country swiftly, like they usually do. If you’re underneath one of the upper lows, the pattern isn’t that great for a while. If you’re under the ridge, it’s usually dry and warm to hot, depending on the season. Well, we’re going to be under one of the upper lows through the weekend, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be miserable the entire time.
Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
In terms of sensible weather, showers will taper off this evening, and then we’ll remain dry for the overnight and first part of Friday. A potent upper-level disturbance will begin dropping southward from Quebec on Friday, so we’ll see clouds moving in, with rain likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers may linger into the afternoon, especially across eastern Massachusetts. The rain won’t be exceptionally heavy, but any rain is welcome, as it helps with the ongoing drought. Along the coast, especially south of Boston, winds will be gusty Saturday afternoon as the system moves offshore and continues to develop, with some gusts to 40 mph possible. With the clouds, rainfall, and cooler air aloft, it will be a chilly day by late-May standards, with temperatures likely in the 50s and lower 60s during the daytime.
Low pressure dropping southward from Quebec will bring in rain and cool conditions for Friday night and early Saturday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
This is where the internet hype machine has gone into overdrive. No, it is not going to feel like mid-winter on Saturday with wind chills in the 30s all day long as some have been claiming. First of all, wind chills in the 30s is not what we normally get in mid-winter to begin with – actual temperatures in the 30s, yes, when it’s milder than normal. Yes, there are a few models that show this potential on Saturday, but just because a model forecasts it, doesn’t mean that is what going to happen. As a colleague of ours is fond of saying “if the models were as good as people think, there’d be no need for meteorologists”.
It will feel like its in the 40s and lower 50s Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Similarly, we’ve seen plenty of posts about the “snowstorm hitting New England this weekend.” Yes, a storm is coming, as we explained above. Yes, temperatures will be well below normal, which we also have mentioned already. Yes, there may be some snow in the higher elevations of northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine for a few hours Saturday morning. There could even be some minor accumulations at elevations above 3000 feet. Care to guess how many people in that region live at elevations above 3000 feet? The answer might not be zero, but it’s probably less than 1000 (maybe even less than 100). Also, while this is unusual, it’s actually not that abnormal. Mount Washington has received snow in every month of the year.
A little snow is possible Saturday morning across the highest peaks of Northern New England. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
As for the rest of the weekend, Sunday should be a better day with milder temperatures, but with that upper-level low overhead we’ll see clouds popping up by midday, with a few pop-up showers in the afternoon. Another disturbance will drop down on Monday with a few more clouds and likely a few more showers.
Thursday night: A few showers through the evening, then becoming clear, clouds start to move back in late at night. Low 48-55.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds through the morning, then clouds thicken up in the afternoon with showers possible by evening. High 65-72.
Friday night: Periods of rain and showers likely. Low 42-49.
Saturday: Showers likely during the morning, some clearing possible by late in the day, windy at times, especially during the morning and early afternoon and along the coastline. High 53-60, but temperatures may stay in the upper 40s for much of the morning and early afternoon, especially across eastern Massachusetts.
Saturday night: Becoming clear. Low 40-47.
Sunday: Some morning sun, then clouds pop up with a few afternoon showers. High 64-71, a little cooler along the coast.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 47-54.
Monday: More clouds than sun with some showers likely. High 62-69.
The final week of May (and meteorological Spring), will feature changeable conditions as we head through the week.
Rain should end by around midday today. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
Low pressure will slowly pull away from the region today, so we’ll start the day off with some rain and a few thunderstorms, but they should wind down by midday, with skies starting to clear from west to east during the afternoon and evening, salvaging some of the day for outdoor activities. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, with sunshine and warmer temperatures. Wednesday looks to be a fairly warm day ahead of a cold front with clouds moving in during the daytime. While the front may trigger a few late-day showers, there may not be a lot of moisture associated with the front, so a widespread soaking rainfall is not expected.
Wednesday looks to be a very warm day. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Later Thursday and Friday look unsettled at this point. An upper-level low pressure system will drop into Atlantic Canada, with a surface low pressure system developing east of New England. This may result in plenty of clouds, cooler temperatures, and some showers, but this is far from certain at this point, as the models do not agree on how this system will develop. A second system will drop southward from Canada on Friday with even cooler temperatures and additional rain. High pressure should return for the weekend with cool temperatures, but if the system on Friday is slow to depart, clouds and rain could linger into early Saturday.
Wil rain linger into early Saturday? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Note: Hurricane Season begins next Monday, June 1. As always, we’ll have an extensive blog post with a review of last year’s season, what to expect this season, and some statistics detailing how the region is extremely overdue for a hurricane to come calling. Expect to see that published at some point later this week.
Monday: Showers likely through midday, skies start to clear out by late afternoon. High 67-74.
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 76-83, a little cooler near the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 56-63.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a late-day shower. High 79-86, a little cooler near the South Coast and across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Thursday: Partly sunny, cooler. High 65-72.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a few showers. Low 47-54.
Friday: More clouds than sun with a better chance for showers, especially later in the day and at night. High 62-69.
Saturday: Chance for a few showers early, then becoming partly sunny. High 60-67.
Memorial Day Weekend is often referred to as the “Unofficial Start of Summer”. Mother Nature will remind us this weekend that it’s still Spring.
Temperatures will be below normal through the long weekend. Image provided by weathermodels.com
High pressure will slowly move across southern Canada tonight and Friday, resulting in a rather chilly night tonight, but a sunny and seasonably mild day on Friday. As the high moves into Atlantic Canada on Saturday low pressure will move into the Midwest, sending plenty of clouds our way, along with cooler temperatures, thanks to the onshore flow around the high pressure area to our east. Right now, it looks like the high will be strong enough to prevent rainfall ahead of the Midwest storm from getting in here during the day on Saturday, so it will be just a cloudy and cool day. However, that rain will likely move in for Saturday night and Sunday, so if you have any outdoor plans on Sunday, it might be time to look for alternatives. While we’re not expecting heavy rain for most of the region, any rain we get is beneficial, and will help put a dent in the ongoing drought. The rain should taper off Monday morning, with improving conditions in the afternoon as the low pressure area pulls away, so we may salvage a decent day for the holiday.
The heaviest rain should stay south and west of our area this weekend. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Gradual clearing. Low 42-49.
Friday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds at times. High 62-69, a little cooler along the coast.
Friday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 44-51.
Saturday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a shower or two late in the day, favoring areas near the South Coast. High 59-66.
Saturday night: Cloudy with showers developing. Low 45-52.
Sunday: Plenty of clouds with occasional rain and showers, breezy. High 54-61.
Sunday night: Cloudy with more showers and some periods of steadier rain, especially across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts. Low 47-54.
Monday: Showers ending early, some late day sunny breaks may develop. High 65-72.
We’ve got an early taste of summer before we get to Memorial Day Weekend.
Some record highs are possible on Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Before we get to the forecast, we wanted to point out that this is blog post #1000 since we started on this long, strange journey, and it is posted just two days shy of the 10th anniversary of the first blog post. Before that StormHQ was just a Facebook page and a Twitter account, but now it’s been 10 years or sarcasm, information, commentary and of course weather forecasts, and for those of you still reading, we thank you very much. Now, onto the forecast.
A backdoor cold front has settled south of the region, so temperatures are will be on the cooler side today despite plenty of sunshine. Of course, cool is relative, as temperatures will be close to where the should be in mid-to-late May, but most places will be 10-20 degrees cooler than they were on Sunday. That front will lift back northward tonight, allowing the warm to hot and increasingly humid weather to return on Tuesday, with temperatures away from the South Coast getting well into the 80s, with some spots topping 90 degrees. We could see a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, but the bulk of the region should remain dry. Wednesday starts off with sunshine, but clouds will quickly move in as a cold front heads our way. It will be another very warm and humid day with temperatures well into the 80s away from the South Coast, with a few places possibly reaching 90 again. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe. Some of the stronger storms may produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and hail. High pressure builds in behind the front with cooler and drier conditions for Thursday and Friday.
A cold front may be accompanied by a line of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Loop provided by WeatherBell
As for Memorial Day Weekend, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty at this point. We’ll have high pressure to the north, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, which a series of waves ride along a frontal system south of the region. That’s about all the models agree on at this point. Whether there is one wave or two, when do they move through, how far north does the rain get, how cool will it stay with cloudcover and/or rainfall. None of these are questions we can answer with any certainty at this point. Right now, it looks like Saturday and possibly Sunday will be the cooler and wetter days, but this is far from certain, and doesn’t mean that Monday will be a great day either for the holiday. We should have a better idea by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, and will take a deeper dive into it at that point.
Will Saturday be wet? The models don’t agree. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82 south and west of Boston, 67-74 north of Boston, possibly a little cooler across the North Shore and Hew Hampshire Seacoast.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 58-65, except 50-57 across the North Shore, Hew Hampshire Seacoast, and Cape Cod.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 87-94, except 79-86 across the South Coast and 71-78 across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 64-71, cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday: Morning sun then increasing clouds with late-day showers and thunderstorms, some could be strong, breezy. High 84-91, except 76-83 across the South Coast and 68-75 across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy. Low 48-55.
Thursday: Partly sunny, much cooler. High 63-70.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 42-49.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 61-68.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 59-66.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 61-68.
Memorial Day: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 64-71.
Even though the calendar says September it’s still astronomical summer, and it will feel like it for the next few days.
Dewpoints will be near or over 70 Saturday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
After a strong of rather nice days changes are on the way. A warm front will cross the region tonight, possibly accompanied by a few showers before daybreak on Friday. Once the front lifts northward, we’ve got warm and humid weather on the way for much of Friday and Saturday, with temperatures getting into the 80s along the coast, and dewpoints creeping back into the 60s or even lower 70s. For the most part it will be mostly sunny on Friday after the clouds move out in the morning, with some patchy fog Friday night. During the day on Saturday we’ll see clouds start to move back in ahead of an approaching cold front. The trend in the models recently has been to slow down this front, so for now, it looks like we’ll stay dry for most of the day Saturday. Some showers and thunderstorms will start to move in towards evening from west to east, with showers likely during the overnight hours. Sunday’s forecast is a little uncertain at this point. The showers should end during the morning, but some models continue to slow down the front with the showers not ending until afternoon from Boston southward, and possibly not until Sunday evening near the South Coast and Cape Cod. This will have an impact on temperatures as well, since the longer it rains, the less chance temperatures will warm up in the afternoon. With the Patriots season opener kicking off in Foxborough at 1:00 PM, any rain could impact not only playing conditions to start the game, but also tailgating beforehand. The front should push offshore at night, with high pressure building in for Monday with cooler and drier weather.
Most of the models aren’t forecasting a lot of rain for the weekend, but every little bit helps to fight the drought. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds, chance for a few late-night showers. Low 58-65.
Friday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and humid. High 78-85.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy, a little patchy fog may develop. Low 62-69.
Saturday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day well north and west of Boston, breezy. High 81-88, cooler near the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Saturday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 57-64, possibly a little warmer across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.
Sunday: Showers gradually ending from northwest to southeast, some late-day sunny breaks develop well north and west of Boston. High 67-74.
Much of the Labor Day Weekend will feature dry but somewhat cool conditions.
Temperatures will be below normal this weekend. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Clouds will start to move in and thicken up tonight as a cold front heads out way from the Great Lakes. That front will bring us some showers and a few thunderstorms during the day on Friday. While we need the rain as drought conditions continue to expand across the region, this will not be a drought-buster. We’re only expecting scattered showers, with some places seeing little, if any, rain from them. There will be a few downpours as well, and don’t be surprised if one or two storms produce some gusty winds and small hail, but overall, this isn’t a big deal. Once the front moves offshore high pressure will build in for the rest of the Labor Day Weekend. However, we’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area moving into the Northeast. That means that we’ll see some clouds popping up each day during the late morning and afternoon hours, dissipating after sunset. These clouds will be most numerous on Saturday, fewer on Sunday, and even fewer on Monday.
Drought conditions are worsening across the region. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Thursday night: Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 56-63.
Friday: More clouds than sunshine with some showers and a few thunderstorms developing. High 70-77.
Friday night: Showers and storms ending in the evening, clearing after midnight. Low 48-55.
Saturday: Morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds. High 68-75.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 49-56.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon. High 69-76.
The final week of summer (traditional and meteorological) has arrived, and for the most part, the weather will be fairly nice, but a little on the cool side.
Below normal temperatures are expected for most of the upcoming week. Image provided by WeatherBell.
We start the week off with some rain across the Cape and Islands as a weak low pressure area passes by offshore. The rain should end during the morning, but we’ve got a cold front moving in from the west. We could see some sunshine, especially inland during the morning, but as the front moves in, we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. They shouldn’t be that strong, but a few could produce some gusty winds and heavy downpours. They’ll quickly subside during the evening as the front pushes offshore, then high pressure starts to build in with cooler and drier conditions. However, we’ll also have an upper-level low pressure area moving in from the Great Lakes, and this will likely generate some clouds for Tuesday afternoon. It’ll probably be a little too dry for any showers to pop up, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if a few days. Another disturbance rotating around that upper low will move in for Wednesday, with some morning sun followed by afternoon clouds, and this day may feature a better chance for some pop-up showers during the afternoon. Thursday looks like another dry day with some afternoon clouds and temperatures that remain a little below normal for late August.
A series of upper-level disturbances will influence our weather for much of the next week. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
As we get to Labor Day weekend, we’ll see another low pressure area moving in on Friday, with another round of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. The system will take its time moving out as another upper-level low moves in, so Saturday may feature more clouds and a few showers, especially early, but we should see some improvement during the afternoon. Sunday looks pretty nice, but we’ll still have an upper-level low nearby, so expect more clouds, but for now, we’re not expecting more showers. High pressure builds in for Labor Day with dry and seasonably warm conditions, though some clouds are still likely as that upper-level low will be slow to depart.
Friday could feature some showers and thunderstorms, but much of the rest of the weekend looks dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Morning showers across Cape Cod, otherwise morning fog burns off revealing a mix of sun and clouds with some showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 75-82.
Monday night: Any showers end in the evening, becoming clear overnight with some patchy fog. Low 56-63.
Tuesday: Morning sun, then some clouds pop up during the afternoon. High 72-79.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 52-59.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers during the afternoon. High 70-77.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Low 51-58.
Thursday: Morning sunshine with afternoon clouds. High 73-80.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Friday: Partly sunny with showers and a few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, tapering off late at night. High 71-78.
Saturday: Any lingering showers end early, some afternoon sunshine develops. High 68-75.
Hurricane Erin will pass well offshore over the next 24 hours while we enjoy some rather nice weather for most of the upcoming weekend.
Average high temperatures in late August are around 80. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
High pressure will slowly build into the region this evening, allowing skies to gradually clear out tonight. With the high in control on Friday we’ll have lots of sunshine, with temperatures getting back close to where they should be in the latter half of August. It will remain breezy, especially during the morning, due to the gradient between the high building in and distant Hurricane Erin pulling away offshore (more on that in a moment). As the high moves off to the east on Saturday, southwest winds will usher warmer air in, with many areas away from the coast likely topping 80 degrees. We’ll see things start to change on Sunday as a cold front begins to slowly approach the region. Clouds will increase, and gusty southerly winds will develop, increasing humidity levels across the area. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, but they should hold off until evening, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Sunday. The front will take its time moving through, with showers and thunderstorms expected for Sunday night into Monday. We’ll also be watching a small area of low pressure moving up the East Coast on Monday. While most of the models keep it far enough offshore to have little to no impact here, some bring it close enough to bring in a periods of steadier rain to Cape Cod and possibly southeastern Massachusetts Monday afternoon and evening. We’re leaning towards it staying too far offshore to impact us, but we are keeping an eye on it just in case.
Low pressure should remain offshore on Monday, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stay dry. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Hurricane Erin was centered about 400 miles northwest of Bermuda as of early Thursday afternoon, moving off toward the northeast at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph. Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast as well as Bermuda. As Erin accelerates northeastward and steadily weakens conditions will improve across Bermuda and the East Coast, though rough seas and rip currents will still be a significant hazard into the weekend. With astronomically high tides, some minor coastal flooding is also still possible for the next day or two in parts of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Hurricane Erin remains a large and potent storm off the East Coast. Loop provided by NOAA.
There are two other tropical waves we’re keeping an eye on this afternoon, but neither is a significant threat to land at this time. A tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands this afternoon. It remains disorganized, but as it heads northwestward, conditions will become more favorable for development, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week as it turns northward out over the open Atlantic. It will bring squally conditions to the Leeward Islands as well as the Virgin Islands and possibly Puerto Rico over the next few days, but otherwise won’t be a threat to land areas, though it could threaten Bermuda by early next week. Another wave is in the central Atlantic, and shows some signs of organization. While conditions are favorable for some development right now, they will become more hostile by this weekend, which would effectively end any further chances for development.
Hurricane Erin is pulling away from the East Coast but there are other areas we’re watching in the Atlantic. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Thursday night: Skies clear out from northwest to southeast, still breezy across Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, and Cape Cod. Low 51-58, a little milder on Cape Cod.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, winds diminish by early afternoon. High 77-84, a little cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Storm HQ 