Heat and humidity return for the first half of the week, but the latter half will tell a different story.
Heat Advisories are in effect for the first half of the week. Image provided by the National Weather Service office in Norton, MA.
We start the week off with high pressure moving offshore, resulting in hot and humid conditions into Wednesday. Tuesday looks the be the hottest day of this stretch, with temperatures well into the 90s, and only a stray shower or thunderstorm providing minimal relief. Wednesday could also be quite hot, but we’ll have a cold front moving in, with clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it during the afternoon. The front moves through and then stalls out near or just off the South Coast, which is where things get tricky.
It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
A wave of low pressure will ride along that front, bringing some rain and cooler air into the region. What’s uncertain is where the front stalls out, and the timing of the wave. For now, it looks like the bulk of the rain will be South of the Mass Pike, but that is highly uncertain. The rain could get all the way into southern New Hampshire, or it could be confined to the South Coast. This will be dependent om where the front actually is. How much rain will be dependent on how strong the wave is. Some models have light to moderate rain in spots, some show the potential for some hefty amounts. The other question is the timing. Some models show most of the rain Thursday and Thursday night, some have the heavier rain Thursday night into Friday, some even have it linger into Friday night. What you’ll see below is our best estimate on all these variables at this time, but it is obviously very low confidence. Behind the system high pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
There’s a lot of uncertainty with the rainfall potential for the end of the week. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Patchy morning fog, otherwise mostly sunny, hot, and humid. High 85-92, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Clear skies, a little patchy fog again. Low 65-72.
Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 90-97, cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 66-73.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for some late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 88-95, cooler across Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 65-72.
Thursday: More clouds than sun with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 75-82.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms. Low 58-65.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms ending, becoming partly sunny. High 70-77.
Lots of changes coming up this weekend, but the humidity will probably hang around.
It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure settles offshore, keeping us on the warm and humid side. In fact, Friday will be downright hot with many places away from the South Coast getting into the 90s. When you factor the humidity it, it may feel like it is close to or a little over 100 in the afternoon. However, we’ll also see clouds moving in ahead of a cold front. That front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread severe weather, but some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front settles offshore before stalling out, with somewhat cooler and drier air moving in for Saturday. By somewhat, we mean temperatures in the 80s instead of 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s instead of upper 60s and lower 70s. So, it’ll be a typical summer day across the region. Sunday may not be as nice. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front and bring the humidity back in, along with the possibility some showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening. However, some models keep the showers offshore, so we may end up with a decent day. High pressure returns for Monday with sunshine, warmer temperatures, and moderate humidity levels.
Will Sunday be wet or dry? It depends on which model you trust. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Thursday night: Clear skies. Low 66-73.
Friday: Some morning sun, then clouds move in with some showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 88-95, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms ending in the evening, becoming clear to partly cloudy after midnight. Low 63-70.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 80-87, a little cooler near the coast.
Saturday night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.
Sunday: More clouds than sunshine, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. High 75-82.
Sunday night: Cloudy with any showers and thunderstorms ending during the evening, becoming partly cloudy late at night. Low 62-69.
Monday: Becoming mostly sunny. High 84-91, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Humidity remains in place for several more days this week, but the heat will also make a comeback.
Dewpoints will get well into the 70s by midweek. Image provided by weathermodels.com
High pressure remains off to our southeast today, with a trough of low pressure moving toward the region. The result will be southwest winds bringing very warm and humid air into the region. As the trough gets nearer, we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms moving in late in the day and into the evening hours. While there could be a few strong storms, the timing will likely be a little too late in the day for any widespread severe weather. However, any storms that do form will likely be fairly slow-moving, so they could dump a lot of rain in localized areas, which could result in some flash flooding in spots. Now this won’t be like what we’ve see in Texas recently, and it probably won’t be as bad as we say south of Boston this past Thursday morning, but it’s something to keep in mind if you’ll be out and about this evening.
Thunderstorms may cross the region late this afternoon and evening. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
Some of the showers could linger into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts until the trough moves offshore, but once it does, humidity levels won’t drop much, if at all, and we set the stage for some hot weather to return. Once the sun breaks out on Tuesday, temperatures should get well into the 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s, resulting in a heat index likely reaching the lower 90s in many spots in the afternoon. The heat and humidity really return for Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations getting near or above 90 degrees, but with dewpoints creeping up even higher, the heat index may approach or exceed 100 each afternoon. A couple of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may provide a little relief on Wednesday, with coverage or showers and storms expanding a bit more on Thursday. Again, some of these storms could be slow-moving, so localized flash flooding is possible.
The heat index will get well into the 90s Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Friday is the day with the biggest question marks at this point. A cold front will be heading towards the region, with very warm and very humid air remaining in place ahead of it. The question is – how warm? Some models give us enough sunshine to allow temperatures to get near or above 90 once again, others have enough cloudcover to keep us in the 80s. As the front moves in, showers and thunderstorms are likely. The timing of the front and the amount of sunshine we get will help determine whether we can expect any severe weather or not. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier weather for Saturday. Another system could start to move in by later Sunday, but it also could hold off until Sunday night or Monday. We’ll have a better idea of what to expect from that when we get to our Weekend Outlook, which will be published on Wednesday this week instead of Thursday.
Will Sunday be wet or stay dry? It’s too early to tell. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
We’re also keeping an eye on the tropics. An area of disturbed weather currently off the Southeast coast is expected to drift towards northern Florida over the next few days, bringing some heavy rain to parts of the Sunshine State. After that, it should continue westward and into the northeastern Gulf. Some models show the potential for the system to develop as it moves westward across the northern Gulf, others don’t do much with it. Water temperatures are plenty warm, so that won’t be a factor. This is something we’ll be keeping an eye on over the next several days.
There is a chance a system could develop in the northern Gulf later this week. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Monday: Some low clouds and fog early, then becoming partly sunny, humid, showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 80-87, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Any lingering showers or storms end in the evening, remaining partly to mostly cloudy with another shower or two and some patchy fog possible. Low 66-73.
Tuesday: Morning clouds, maybe a shower or two across southeastern Massachusetts, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, still humid. High 83-90, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 65-72.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, very humid, slight chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. High 86-93, cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and muggy with some patchy fog. Low 68-75.
Thursday: Partly sunny and quite humid, some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible, breezy in the afternoon. High 84-91, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, muggy. Low 69-76.
Friday: Partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, ending in the evening. High 86-93.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 78-85.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. High 79-86.
Heat and humidity remain in place to start the week, but they won’t last too long.
The heat index will be in the lower to middle 90s again this afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
High pressure sits offshore today while a cold front begins to approach from the west. That’s a recipe for hot and humid conditions across our region today. We could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon, but they should not be widespread. Tuesday is the transition day, though it will be very warm to hot and quite humid once again. Across parts of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod there is the potential for some heavy downpours early in the day as what’s left of Tropical Storm Chantal moves past the area. Later, that cold front will move across the region, resulting in more widespread showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe across the interior.
A few showers and storms are possible today, but they are more likely late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com
The front settles south of the region, but likely remains close enough for plenty of clouds on Wednesday with cooler temperatures and possibly a few showers as well. A wave of low pressure riding along the front brings in more showers for Thursday. For Friday, a few lingering showers are possible, but some drier air will start to move in as high pressure starts to build in across southeastern Canada. Saturday should be mostly dry, but with an upper level low pressure area moving through we’ll see some clouds and possibly a shower or two in the afternoon. High pressure should move offshore for Sunday with dry and warmer weather expected.
A few models show the potential for heavy rain near the South Coast Thursday, but many show nothing more than scattered showers. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Partly sunny, breezy, quite humid, chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. High 85-92, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog, some rain possible across southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod after midnight. Low 67-74.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, a few could be strong. High 85-92, cooler across Cape Cod.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, showers and storms taper off fog redevelops. Low 64-71.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, a shower or two is possible, cooler. High 75-82.
Wednesday night: Plenty of clouds, some showers possible after midnight, mainly near the South Coast. Low 61-68.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74-81.
Thursday night: Cloudy with more showers. Low 60-67.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, a few more showers, mainly in the morning, some sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. High 72-79.
Saturday: Becoming partly sunny, slight chance for a pop-up shower. High 75-82.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 77-84.
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