Author: wxmanscottk

Weekly Outlook: October 12-18, 2020

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Some much-needed rainfall is finally on the way, but we need a lot more.

Drought conditions continue to worsen across New England. Image provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The remains of Hurricane Delta will move into the Mid-Atlantic states today, bringing that region some more heavy rainfall. Some of that rain will get into southern New England today, but it doesn’t look like it will make too much progress northward, thanks to high pressure that will be slow to move out. Right out, it looks like most of the rain today will be south of a line that stretches from Hartford to Providence to Plymouth, or roughly south of Route 44. A few showers may get farther north, but the bulk of the rainfall should stay south during the daytime. With the high to the northeast and low pressure to the southeast, we’ll have brisk northeast winds resulting in a rather cool day across the region, with temperatures likely staying in the 50s for most of us.

Up to an inch of much-needed rain is expected with some spots possibly exceeding an inch. Image provided by WeatherBell.

As low pressure gets a little closer tonight and a cold front starts to approach from the west, rainfall should become more widespread across the region. Some of the rain may be heavy, and it may actually bring down some warmer air from aloft, allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees. The rain continues into Tuesday, which should be a bit milder, ending from west to east during the afternoon as the cold front moves across the region.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing some sunshine and milder weather back in. However, our dry and mild weather will be short-lived. Another cold front approaches on Friday, with another round of showers expected. Some of the models try to develop an area of low pressure along this front which would bring some heavier rain into the region, but we’re skeptical of that scenario at this point. Since the drought began in the Spring, we’ve seen numerous model forecasts for a decent amount of rain several days out that fizzle as it gets closer. Until we see something to change our mind, we’ll continue to lean towards lighter amounts of rain. (Even the rain for today/tomorrow was forecast to be much heavier by the models just a day or two ago) While we’re leaning dry, we are mindful of the fact that more than one model is going for the rain to last through Saturday and into early Sunday. In fact, one of the models actually has the rain change to snow across the mountains of northern New England this weekend as colder air moves in. Obviously, we should have much more clarity on the weekend forecast when we issue our Weekend Outlook Thursday afternoon, but we just wanted to warn you up front that although our forecast right now shows a decent weekend, that is subject to change.

With some sunshine, Friday could be quite warm ahead of a cold front. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with some showers likely, mainly close to the South Coast. High 51-58.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with more widespread showers and a period of steady rain, possibly heavy in spots. Low 46-53, but temperatures may drift up a few degrees after midnight, especially south of Boston.

Tuesday: Periods of rain and showers during the morning, ending from west to east during the afternoon. High 57-64, possibly a little warmer near the South Coast and Cape Cod.

Tuesday night: Gradual clearing. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, milder. High 62-69.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. High 65-72.

Friday: Plenty of clouds with some showers likely. High 65-72.

Saturday: Early clouds, then becoming partly sunny. High 56-63.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 54-61.

Weekend Outlook: October 9-12, 2020

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We’ve reached Columbus Day Weekend, or for our friends north of the border, it’s Thanksgiving Weekend. For one day at least, it’s not going to feel like it.

Friday morning will be rather chilly across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Once again, we’ve got a fairly simple forecast for the most part. High pressure remains in control through Saturday. This provides us with cool weather into Saturday. Frost advisories are in effect away from the coastline tonight, as temperatures will drop into the 30s in many areas. If you still have anything in your garden, it’s time to bring it inside. The high slides offshore Friday night, allowing milder air to move back in. In fact, Saturday will be quite warm, with temperatures reaching the 70s for most of us.

Saturday is definitely the better of the weekend days. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Sunday is when things start to change. A cold front moves through during the early morning, but there will be little precipitation accompanying it. There may be a few sprinkles or a spot shower, but the vast majority of the region should remain dry. However, much cooler weather will settle back in, with temperatures similar to today and Friday as high pressure builds back in behind the front.

This brings us to Monday, which is a bit of a question mark at this point. What’s left of Hurricane Delta will start moving this way in the form of some shower activity. The high pressure area will still be in control, keeping most of the shower activity from moving in. However, the high will be pushing off to the east, so right now, it looks like we may see some showers start to move in during the afternoon and evening. The day shouldn’t be a washout, and in fact, it may remain dry during the daylight hours. It will stay cool though with plenty of cloud cover.

Will some rain move in on Monday or not? The models don’t all agree on the outcome. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Low 33-40.

Friday: Sunny and cool. High 57-64.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 44-51 during the evening, temperatures will start to rise a bit after midnight.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, and warmer. High 71-78.

Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance for a shower late at night. Low 50-57.

Sunday: More clouds than sun. High 59-66.

Sunday night: Plenty of clouds. Low 42-49.

Monday: A few sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy, showers may develop towards evening. High 56-63.

Big Trouble for Cancun and the Gulf

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In math and science, Delta is used to reference change. Using that definition, Hurricane Delta has been aptly named, as it has been changing by the minute.

Hurricane Delta has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Hurricane. Loop provided by NOAA.

Tropical Depression 26 developed late Sunday night south of Jamaica. Just 36 hours later, the system has become Hurricane Delta, a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph. While rapid intensification was always a possibility since the storm was sitting in the northwestern Caribbean over some of the warmest waters of the entire Atlantic Basin, nobody expected it to become this powerful this quickly, and it may not be done yet.

As of 2pm EDT Tuesday, Delta was centered about 260 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 16 mph. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of the Yucatan, including the resort locations of Cancun and Cozumel. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for parts of the Yucatan and western Cuba.

Forecast track for Hurricane Delta.

Delta is expected to move across the northeastern Yucatan on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm, passing close to or over Cozumel and Cancun. Likely impacts include a storm surge of 6-12 feet, wind gusts in excess of 100mph, and rainfall totals of 3-6 inches and locally heavier will produce flooding and mudslides. The only saving grace is that Delta should be moving along fairly quickly, so that will limit the amount of time that hurricane conditions are expected.

Delta will produce heavy rain across the Yucatan and western Cuba. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Once Delta emerges in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it should eventually start to turn more toward the northwest and then north. When that turn occurs will be important for determining where landfall will happen. Most of the models are currently clustered in central or western Louisiana, with a timeframe of late Friday night or early Saturday. This is the same area that was battered by Hurricane Laura several weeks ago. However, this can, and probably will change a little over the next few days.

While the models are clustered together, there is still uncertainty as to where land will occur. Image provided by Tomer Burg.

As far as intensity, Delta should weaken a little as it moves over the Yucatan on Wednesday, but then strengthen again as it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. The recent trend has been for storms to continue to intensify up until landfall in the Gulf, but that does not look like it will be the case with Delta. For one, some wind shear will start to impact the system as it moves across the central and northern Gulf, but water temperatures closer to the Gulf Coast has dropped recently thanks to a series of cold front moving into the region. Delta should still be a formidable storm, but it likely won’t be a Category 4 at landfall along the Gulf Coast.

Water temperatures in the northern Gulf of Mexico have dropped a few degrees recently. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Marie continues to wind down and should dissipate over open water in the next 12-24 hours. However, Tropical Storm Norbert has formed off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Norbert is centered about 365 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. Norbert is expected to meander around over open water, with some strengthening possible in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Norbert is not a threat to land. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Much farther to the west, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom could become a threat to parts of southwestern and southern Japan late this week. Chan-Hom currently has maximum sustained winds near 65 mph, but strengthening is likely, and it could become a typhoon in the next day or two. A northwestward track towards the Ryukyu Islands will continue for the next day or two, before the system starts to recurve towards the north and eventually northeast. When that recurve takes place will determine what, if any, impacts, the system has on southern Japan. Right now, it looks like heavy rain will be the biggest threat, but obviously, wind could become a factor, depending on the actual track.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. Image provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Weekly Outlook: October 5-11, 2020

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We’re not expecting much drought relief again this week, but it won’t be completely bone-dry either.

Most of the region has received 50-75% of the normal amount of rainfall over the past 6 months. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

The week actually starts off with low pressure passing south and east of the region this morning. It will produce some showers across the Cape and Islands, and possibly into parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but once you get north and west of Interstate-95, there won’t be any rain to be found. The system pulls away during the afternoon and high pressure builds in, with skies quickly clearing out. The high will slide offshore tonight, but another weak system will move through on Tuesday, with some more clouds and possibly a few brief showers.

Clouds become more numerous on Wednesday as low pressure heads into the St. Lawrence Valley. While it’ll be warmer, we’ll also have some showers to deal with, and possibly a rumble of thunder as well. The system will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday night, bringing an end to the shower activity.

As has been the case for quite some time, we’re not expecting much rainfall over the next ew days. Image provided by the College of DuPage.

Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher cooler air into the region on Thursday despite a decent amount of sunshine. As the winds start to die down Thursday night, we’ll have clear skies, setting up a very chilly night, with some places possibly getting down close to freezing. Friday will be another cool day despite ample sunshine, but then high pressure will slide offshore, resulting in a warming trend for next weekend.

Friday morning could be quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy during the morning with some showers south of Boston, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 61-68.

Monday night: Clear skies, a little patchy fog is possible in a few spots. Low 45-52.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers during the afternoon. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers developing, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 66-73.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy, and cooler. High 58-65.

Friday: Sunny and cool. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and milder. High 64-71.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

The tropics are getting active again. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Finally, we’ll briefly mention the tropics. Tropical Storm Gamma will continue to produce heavy rain across the Yucatan Peninsula for a few more days as it drifts into the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Depression 26 will likely become Tropical Storm Delta today (it may already have done so by the time you read this). It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Jamaica today, then the Cayman Islands and western Cuba over the next few days. It will then head into the Gulf of Mexico, and could threaten the central Gulf Coast later in the week as a hurricane. We’ll have a much more detailed post about the tropics later today or more likely on Tuesday.

Weekend Outlook: October 2-5, 2020

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We’re into a new month, and some things will change, but some will remain the same this weekend.

High temperatures are normally in the middle to upper 60s at the start of October around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

While we’re enjoying sunshine and warm temperatures this afternoon, the first changes are on their way. Clouds will stream in tonight ahead of a cold front. This front will bring some showers in on Friday, but like many of our recent systems, they’ll be fairly light, and won’t provide much, if any, help with our drought. Most of the activity will be north and west of Boston, with the possibility that it remains completely dry south and east of Interstate 95. It’ll be mild during the morning across eastern Massachusetts before the front moves through, but temperatures will likely drop during the afternoon.

Friday’s rainfall certainly won’t be a drought-buster. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure builds in for the weekend with temperatures that are closer to normal, perhaps even a little below normal in spots. Sunday looks to be the better of the weekend days with plenty of sunshine. Saturday should still be a pretty good day, but a weak upper-level disturbance will help to trigger some clouds, especially during the afternoon. There may even be a few sprinkles or showers late in the day, mainly north of the Mass Pike. It’s nothing to worry about, but if you’ve got any outdoor plans during the afternoon and evening, don’t be surprised if there are a few raindrops.

Monday brings more changes to the region. A storm system will likely bring some rain into the area as it passes to our south and east. How far north and west the rain shield extends, and how heavy the rain will be are still a bit uncertain. It looks like the heaviest rain should stay offshore, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if we get some steadier rain into the Cape and Islands and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. It also could be a bit breezy in these locations as well, again depending on how close the storm actually gets to the region. We’ll obviously have much more clarity on this in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

There is disagreement among the models as how to much rain we get on Monday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Thursday night: Increasing clouds. Low 49-56.

Friday: Cloudy with some showers likely. High 59-66, a little warmer across eastern Massachusetts during the morning.

Friday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 40-47, a little warmer in the urban areas.

Saturday: Partly sunny with a slight chance for a few late-day sprinkles or showers. High 61-68.

Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 40-47.

Sunday: Sunshine to start, some clouds start to move in late in the day. High 60-67.

Sunday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers possible by daybreak. Low 44-51.

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of showers, possibly some steadier rain across the Cape and Islands. High 57-64.

Weekly Outlook: September 28 – October 4, 2020

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As September ends and October begins, we’ve got some changes coming for our weather pattern.

We start the week off with warm and humid conditions that feel more like late summer than early fall. Thanks to high pressure off the East Coast, southerly flow will continue to pump warm and humid air into the region today and Tuesday. However, we’ll also have plenty of clouds, along with a few showers today and again on Tuesday as a couple of weak disturbances move across the region.

With a little bit of sunshine, temperatures could approach 80 in some spots on Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the bigger changes start to happen. A cold front approaches the region Tuesday night, moving through on Wednesday. A low pressure area will ride along this front, bringing in some showers. While the bulk of the activity, especially the heavy rain, looks like it will stay to our west, we will see some beneficial rain here, mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We may get a bit of a lull Wednesday afternoon and evening, but by Wednesday night, a low pressure area will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and head northeastward, passing near or just east of the Cape and Islands early Thursday.

Over the last 6 months, rainfall is generally 5-10 inches below normal across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Some models are showing the potential for heavy rain across eastern New England with this system, but we’re a bit skeptical at this point. We’ve seen the models forecast significant rainfall around here numerous times in the past few months, and it just hasn’t materialized for the most part. Add in the fact that not all the models are showing the heavier rain getting in here, and the fact that even the ones that do haven’t been consistently showing it on every run, and we’ve got plenty of reasons to doubt it. Having said that, droughts don’t last forever, and it does have to start raining more consistently at some point, because this is New England, not Arizona.

The models mostly agree that we’ll have some significant rainfall this week, but they don’t agree on how much or where the heaviest rain will fall. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

High pressure will try to build in for the end of the week and the weekend with cooler and drier conditions. However, an upper-level low will remain off to our west, and little impulses riding around that low may bring in some more clouds and possibly a few showers, mainly Friday, but possibly Saturday too. Beyond that, it looks like a cooler pattern sets up for next week. There are even a couple of models that show the potential for a storm late next week that may not produce just rain across the higher elevations of northern New England (We’ll be kind and refrain from using that 4-letter word that begins with S that many of you don’t like).

Temperatures may average below normal across the region next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. High 74-81.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine with showers possible late in the day, mainly north and west of Boston. High 73-80.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Low 62-69.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with some showers around, becoming a steady rain at night. High 69-76.

Thursday: Rain ending early, some clearing in the afternoon. High 65-72.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a pop-up shower. High 62-69.

Saturday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 61-68.

Sunday: Some sun early, clouds return in the afternoon. High 58-65.

Weekend Outlook: September 25-28, 2020

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Fall is officially here, but it certainly won’t feel like it through most of the weekend.

High pressure keeps us dry through Sunday. Unlike the last several days, we will be much warmer, thanks to west to southwest winds. In fact, by Sunday, it may even feel humid once again. It’s not going to be the Dog Days of summer, but highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the middle 60s aren’t too typical of the final weekend of September.

While it’s looking dry, it probably won’t be completely sunny through the weekend. What’s left of Tropical Storm Beta will be passing to our south Saturday. It may spread some clouds into the region, but for now, it looks like most of the rain will stay south of us, though a few of the models do try to sneak some showers in on Saturday. Since it’s been very dry lately, and we’re still in a drought, we’re going to follow the old forecaster’s adage “When in drought, leave it out.”

Virtually no rain fell over the past week, worsening drought conditions across New England. Image provided by the National Integrated Drought Information System

By Sunday night, things start to change. A large upper-level trough of low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move toward the region. Some showers are likely ahead of this front Sunday night into Monday. This isn’t a drought-busting rain by any means, but every little bit helps. A cooler, more unsettled pattern may settle in for next week, but the details aren’t that clear yet. We’ll focus more on that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 52-59.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 74-81.

Friday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75-82.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, and warm. High 76-83.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 60-67.

Monday: Plenty of clouds with scattered showers likely, breezy. High 72-79.

Weekly Outlook: September 21-27, 2020

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We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but little to no rainfall is expected again this week.

This week’s forecast is fairly simple, so we’ll keep it brief. Monday and Tuesday will feature dry and cool conditions with high pressure in control. Winds will pick up on Tuesday as the extratropical remains of Hurricane Teddy pass to our east and into Nova Scotia. It will create some very rough surf, so heading to the beach or out on a boat won’t be advisable until seas start to calm down later in the week.

Wave heights will be in excess of 40-50 feet east of the Cape and Islands by late Tuesday. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Wednesday, the high slides offshore, and warmer weather settles in for Wednesday and Thursday. A weak disturbance crosses the region on Friday with some clouds and maybe a shower or two, but that’s about it. Dry weather returns next weekend.

Little to no rainfall is expected across the reion this week. Image provided by Weathermodels.com.

Monday: Sunshine and lots of it. High 59-66.

Monday night: Clear skies, though some high clouds may move into eastern areas late at night. Low 36-43, warmer in the urban areas and across the Cape Cod.

Tuesday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds, though some thicker clouds are possible across Cape Cod, becoming breezy, especially along the coast. High 63-70.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 49-56.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny., breezy, and warmer. High 71-78.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 72-79.

Friday: More clouds than sun with a chance for a few widely scattered showers. High 71-78.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 70-77.

Sunday: More sunshine. High 71-78.

Tropical Update: Naming Thunderstorms Again

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A quick look at a map of the tropics shows that they remain active with four “named” storms out there. A deeper look shows that some of the storms aren’t as bad as they sound.

There are still several areas to watch in the Atlantic. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Center.

With the formation of Tropical Storm Beta in the western Gulf of Mexico, three “Tropical Storms” have formed on the same day in the Atlantic for the only the second time ever. Of course, the problem is, at least one of those storms should not have been named. In fact, it doesn’t even show up on the map above which shows the entire “tropical” Atlantic basin.

We’ll start with the most egregious system – Subtropical Storm Alpha. It formed just off the coast of Portugal this afternoon. It’s a cold-core storm, which means that it isn’t tropical. However, the National Hurricane Center claimed that it had acquired enough characteristics to become classified as “subtropical.” We claim that they’re padding the stats to break records, and we know that numerous other meteorologists think the same thing. As you can see on the satellite loop below, the center of the storm is already inland over Portugal. Monte Real Air Base along the coast of Portugal reported sustained winds of 36 mph with a gusts to 55 mph as the storm moved through. Winds only gusted to 20 mph or higher for 3 hours in that location. The storm will move into Spain and then dissipate in the next 12-24 hours.

This is a named storm? Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Next up is Tropical Storm Wilfred. Wilfred formed this morning over the central Atlantic. As of late Friday afternoon, it was centered about 735 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 40 mph. Most of the models aren’t bullish on the future of Wilfred, though the Hurricane Center thinks it may strengthen a little over the next 24 hours, but after that, conditions will be even less favorable for the system, and it will likely weaken. It will probably dissipate over open water late this weekend or early next week. It is not a threat to land.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Wilfred. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

In the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 22 has become Tropical Storm Beta. As of late Friday afternoon, it was centered about 180 miles east-southeast of the Rio Grande, moving toward the north-northeast at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. There are no watches or warnings in effect for the coast of Mexico or Texas yet, but some will likely be issued tonight or early Saturday.

Model forecasts for the track of Tropical Storm Beta. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Beta is forecast to continue to strengthen over the weekend as wind shear decreases, and it could become a hurricane before the end of the weekend. As a ridge of high pressure builds in to the north, the storm should turn more towards the west, heading towards the Texas Coast. By late in the weekend, things get tricky. Another trough of low pressure will start to move into the nation’s midsection, turning Beta back towards the north and eventually northeast. The question is, when does that turn occur? Most of the models show it happening before the storm can get to the Texas coast, then it would likely parallel the coast, and possibly make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border towards mid-week. This is the same area that was just devastated by Hurricane Laura a few weeks ago. Of course, a later turn would allow it to make landfall along the southern or south-central Texas coast, then head across inland portions of coastal Texas in a weakened state. Either way, very heavy rain is likely across parts of the southeastern Texas and into western Louisiana over the next 5-7 days.

Flooding is likely along the Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana over the next week or so due to very heavy rainfall. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Finally, we get to the strongest storm of the bunch – Hurricane Teddy. As of late Friday afternoon, Teddy was centered about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph. Teddy will remain a formidable storm through the weekend, but some gradual weakening is expected. A turn more toward the north is likely, which should keep Teddy about 100-150 miles east of Bermuda late this weekend. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda as a precaution, but the most significant weather with the storm will stay well to the east.

Forecast track for Hurricane Teddy. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Once it is past Bermuda, Teddy will continue northward while weakening, but it also will start to transition into an extratropical storm. Although it will likely no longer be tropical, it will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island when it moves across these areas Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind gusts of up to 80 mph are possible along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, with gusts to 40-60 mph across the remainder of the region. Rainfall totals of 2-5 inches may result in some localized flooding.

Teddy may produce strong winds across Atlantic Canada by the middle of next week. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Elsewhere, there are two other areas of note in the Atlantic. The first one is the extratropical remains of former Hurricane Paulette. This system will drift southward west of the Azores over the next few days, and as it moves over some warmer water, it could reacquire some tropical characteristics. There is also another tropical wave that will roll off the west coast of Africa on Saturday. Conditions may be favorable for some slow development as it makes its way across the Atlantic over the next week or so.

Weekend Outlook: September 18-21, 2020

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Astronomical fall officially begins Tuesday morning at 9:31am. As far as the weather is concerned, fall is going to start tomorrow.

Temperatures are going to turn much cooler, but we’re still not expecting much, if any, rain for the next several days, so our drought situation will continue to get worse. A cold front will move across the region tonight, but it will be starved for moisture, so aside from a few very widely scattered showers, we’re not expecting any rain for most of us. There may be a few appreciable showers along the South Coast and across the Cape, but for the rest of us, you’ll probably be able to count the number of raindrops that fall on one hand.

Little to no rainfall is expected through Monday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

After that, high pressure starts to build in behind the front on Friday and remains with us right through the weekend. This will give us plenty of sunshine for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but it will remain on the cool side. Some places may not even reach 60 during the afternoons. What about at night? If you’ve got some plants outside, or still growing in the garden, it’s time to bring them inside. There’s a good shot at the first frost for portions of the region. Welcome to Autumn.

Saturday morning looks quite cool, but Sunday morning could be a few degrees cooler. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Finally, we’ll briefly talk about the tropics, though we’re expecting to write a much more detailed post about them tomorrow. What’s left of Sally will bring heavy rain to the Carolinas today, then move offshore, sending some clouds our way tonight and early Friday, but the rain should stay to the south. A disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico may become a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow. What impact it has on Mexico and/or Texas remains to be seen. Tropical Depression Vicky should dissipate in the Central Atlantic today or tomorrow. Then there’s Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is going to become a pretty powerful storm in the next day or two. The current track brings it very close to Bermuda early Monday. Bermuda just got hit hard by Paulette, and here were are talking about another hurricane just a week later. Beyond that, Teddy likely heads northward, and could impact parts of Nova Scotia towards mid-week unless it hooks more quickly and heads out to sea. Now, you may have heard some of the media talking yesterday about the potential for Teddy to head our way. This is because one model (which has performed very poorly for several months now) showed a track that brought the storm closer, or even made landfall in Maine. In fact, one unnamed Boston TV meteorologist went so far as to show a map based on this model with a wind forecast for the region for next Tuesday (we can think of several words to describe this, but we’ll settle for STUPID). This is the equivalent of showing a model forecast snowfall map on Wednesday for a storm that one model shows might hit us next Tuesday. (Wait, they already do that too) The odds of Teddy impacting our area are extremely low (maybe not zero, but close enough). We long for the days when our local TV meteorologists just came on and provided a weather forecast for the next 3-5 days, and didn’t try and hype up everything.

There are still three named storms out there, though two of them are now tropical depression. Image provided by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Thursday night: Plenty of clouds, a few torrential sprinkles are possible, especially near the South Coast. Low 50-57.

Friday: Morning clouds, maybe even another raindrop or two across the Cape and the Islands, then skies start to clear out in the afternoon, but it will turn much cooler. High 58-65.

Friday night: Mostly clear and chilly. Low 37-44, a little warmer in the urban areas. A little patchy frost is possible in a few f the colder spots.

Saturday: Sunshine and possibly a few high clouds near the South Coast. High 57-64.

Saturday night: Clear and chilly again. Low 35-42, a little warmer in the urban areas. Some frost is possible, especially in the normally cooler locations.

Sunday: Wall-to-wall sunshine. High 56-63.

Sunday night: Clear skies, still chilly. Low 38-45, a little warmer in the urban areas.

Monday: Sunshine. Nothing but sunshine. High 58-65.