The first widespread measurable snowfall of the year is on the way for most of us, but overall, it’s not that big of a deal.
Most of the region has already seen snowflakes this season, and even had a coating on the grass in spots, but the system moving in for Wednesday will bring us our first measurable snow of the year. If this were the middle of winter, you’d barely notice it, but since it’s the first one of the season, and it will be timed for the afternoon commute, plenty of people will lose their minds and forget how to drive in the snow.
A low pressure system will move off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday and head northeastward while strengthening, passing well south and east of New England. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move into Northern New England. If these two were to interact, it could create a pretty impressive low pressure system. However, they won’t, so we’re just left in the middle, with some light snow inland and rain along the coast, changing to snow during the evening. There could be some snow showers around during the morning, especially across southern New Hampshire, but the bulk of the activity should move in between 2 and 4pm, just in the for the afternoon commute. Light snow will continue through the evening, with rain south of Boston. The rain should change over to snow during the evening, with everything winding down by midnight, possibly a little later across Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.
There is still a little bit of an unknown with this system. Some of the models are showing an enhanced band of snow developing along the coastline during the evening hours. Not all of the models show this, and the ones that do, don’t all show it in the same area. Some show it in coastal Maine, some along the New Hampshire Seacoast, some near Cape Ann, and some along the South Shore. We’re not convinced this will even develop, but are wary that it may, and will take that into account in the forecast.
So, how much do we expect? For the most part, most of us will see an inch or less (like we said, not a big deal). A few places could see 1-2 inches. There is a low probability that coastal locations could see more than that, if that enhanced band does develop.
Overall, this more of a nuisance than anything. Another system may bring in a little light snow early Friday before a big warmup on Saturday, when many of us will break into the 60s once again.