We’ve got a fairly quiet week coming up across the region with a moderating trend as well.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with dry and cool conditions. We’ll start off sunny, but high clouds will start to stream in during the afternoon ahead of low pressure moving off the Carolina coast. That system will pass well to our south and east on Tuesday, but the flow around it, moving over the still relatively mild ocean, could help generate a few ocean-effect rain or snow showers, mainly across Cape Cod and east-coastal Massachusetts, especially coastal Plymouth County and Cape Ann. That system pulls away Tuesday night, but another weak upper-level disturbance swings through on Wednesday. Moisture will be limited with this system, but again, a few rain or snow showers can’t be ruled out, mainly well north and west of Boston. High pressure builds in again for Thursday and Friday with generally dry weather and moderating temperatures.

Things start to get active again next weekend. Most of the models show a low pressure area heading into the Great Lakes and then southeastern Canada. This would result in a warmup around here with some rain likely as the storm drags a frontal system toward the region. However, most of these same models showed a similar scenario for the storm we just had on Saturday. Also, some of the members of the various ensembles show the potential for a secondary area of low pressure to develop south of New England, a common occurrence with low pressure areas that pass well to our west. If this were to happen, it would result in the warm air never making it in here. Now, this doesn’t mean we’ll be in for another snowstorm. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t get well into the 50s with more rain. Obviously, things can and will change as we head through the week. Consider our forecast for next weekend to be “low confidence” right now.

Monday: Sunshine fades behind thickening afternoon clouds. High 32-39.

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few flurries may develop late at night near the east coast. Low 19-26.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, a few rain or snow showers possible near the coast. High 29-36.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17-24.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance for a rain or snow shower, favoring areas north and west of Boston. High 34-41.

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 40-47.

Friday: Sunshine dimmed by some afternoon high clouds. High 40-40.

Saturday: Plenty of clouds with showers possible, mainly late in the day and at night. High 47-54.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance for more showers, mainly early. High 49-56.

Our storm is well underway, and we’ve got some changes to the forecast.

In the big picture, not a lot has changed this morning. Low pressure is just east of the Delmarva Peninsula this morning, and it will head northeastward today, intensifying rapidly as it passes close to or over Nantucket this afternoon, before heading into the Gulf of Maine tonight. Rain has overspread the region this morning, and has been heavy at times, while temperatures have dropped into the middle 30s to lower 40s. Across the higher elevations of Worcester County, the Monadnocks of southwestern New Hampshire, and the Berkshires, the rain has changed over to snow already.

Most of this is in line with the forecast we posted yesterday, the timing is just a little quicker. There still isn’t a lot of cold air to work with at the surface, but the storm is quite intense, and the heavier precipitation is dragging the cold air down from aloft. This will allow the rain to change to snow as the day goes on across much of the remainder of the region from west to east. Temperatures likely will stay in the lower 30s, so it will be a heavy, wet snow, and if the intensity lightens up, it could flip back to rain in spots. This could mean the difference between several inches of snow in one spot, and much less in a nearby location. Along the coast, where water temperatures are still in the 40s, it will take a little longer to flip to snow, thanks to the moderating influence of the marine air.

We’ll also have some strong winds to deal with later today, especially along the coastline. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been posted for parts of the region. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph or more are expected, mainly this afternoon and evening as the storm center passes near and just east of the region. Some gusts to 60 mph or more can’t be ruled out, especially across coastal Plymouth County along with Cape Cod and the Islands.

Here’s where there is still some unknowns. There are likely to be bands of very heavy snow that develop as the system really gets cranked up. These could produce snowfall totals of 1-3 inches per hour. Where they set up is extremely difficult to predict in advance, and these bands could be as little as 5-10 miles wide. We’ve already had one band of very heavy rain setup from Worcester northeastward to the Merrimack Valley this morning. The western edge of this band changed to snow in the higher elevations in Worcester County. Similar bands are likely to form later today. Places just outside these bands could see significantly less snow these spots just a few miles down the road that get stuck under the bands. This obviously complicates the snowfall forecast.

Here’s our updated thoughts on the changeover timing:

Mid/Late morning: The higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire
Late Morning/Midday: Southern New Hampshire
Midday/Early Afternoon: Merrimack Valley and New Hampshire Seacoast
Early/Mid Afternoon: MetroWest and the North Shore as well as Northern Rhode Island
Late Afternoon/Early Evening: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence and Southeastern Massachusetts.

Everything should wind down and end by midnight as the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine and pulls away from the area. As for snowfall, there is still a wide range among many of the models, so forecast confidence is still below average.

Having said all of that, here’s our best estimate right now for snowfall:

Dusting (if that): Cape Cod and the Islands
1-3″: Southeastern Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island
3-5″: I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence
4-7″: North Shore/New Hampshire Seacoast (heaviest inland)
5-9″: Merrimack Valley/Southern New Hampshire/MetroWest/Northern Rhode Island
6-12″: Worcester County/Southwestern New Hampshire

Some of the hills in Central Massachusetts and Southwestern New Hampshire, especially above 1000 feet, will likely see more than a foot.

Once the system passes by, we’ll have drier and cooler weather for the next several days. The only possible fly in the ointment is another system that is expected to pass well south and east of the region on Tuesday. Right now, it should be too far offshore to have much, if any, impact on our area, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

It won’t feel like the last day of November as we start the week on a windy, warm, and wet note.

A strong storm system will move up the Appalachians today, passing west of the region. This will allow unseasonably mild air into the area on gusty south to southeast winds. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected, with some gusts of 50-60 mph (or higher) possible, especially near the coast. Temperatures will get well into the 50s across the region today, with many areas, especially in eastern Massachusetts possibly topping 60 by late in the day. The warm weather will be accompanied by rain, some of which may be heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. By the time everything winds down at night, much of the region will have received 1-2 inches of rain, with some heavier amounts possible.

As the system moves into southeastern Canada on Tuesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. The day will start off mild, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s during the morning, but they’ll drop during the afternoon behind the front. A few more showers are also possible, but nothing as heavy as what we’re expecting today.

By Wednesday, an upper-level low pressure system will move into the Northeast and southeastern Canada, bringing much cooler air in, though it will still be close to normal for early December. We’ll still have plenty of clouds around, and a pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out, maybe even a snow flurry. High pressure then builds in for Thursday with sunshine. Clouds return Thursday night and Friday along with milder weather ahead of the next storm system.

Next weekend looks unsettled, but pinning down specifics at this point is an effort in futility. The models have performed relatively poorly beyond a few days lately, and there are significant differences in their solutions for next weekend as well. For now, we’ll just go with unsettled conditions, and the chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday, but there is a possibility that the entire weekend won’t be unsettled. There’s also the possibility that all of the precipitation that falls wouldn’t be just rain. It will be early December, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise. We hope to have much more clarity on this when we write our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Cloudy and becoming windy with rain, possibly heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm as well. High 55-62.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing winds, showers taper off toward midnight. Temperatures hold steady overnight.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63 early, then temperatures drop in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy. Low 31-38.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy, slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. High 39-46.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, some high clouds may start to stream in late in the day. High 41-48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible late in the day. High 47-54.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 43-50.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. High 42-49.

We’re going to put a few dents in that drought this week, as we’ll have a few storms systems to contend with, but it looks like they’ll be mostly rain, with one of them on Thanksgiving Day. Notice that we said “mostly rain”, as we could have some issues Wednesday night, especially in southern New Hampshire.

We start the week off on a wet note as low pressure passes north and west of the region, providing us with a rainy start to the day. Temperatures will be on the mild side this morning, but don’t get used to it. A cold front will cross the region by early afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but behind it, gusty winds will usher much cooler air back in as skies clear out, leading to a chilly night tonight.

High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. It will still be breezy early on as today’s low pressure system continues to pull away, but winds should die down during the afternoon as the high continues to build in. With clear skies and light winds Tuesday night, we’ll have another chilly night, but some high clouds may start to move in late at night, which would prevent temperatures from tumbling too much. Those high clouds will be in advance of a warm front that will approach the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by a few showers. This could set up a tricky situation during the late afternoon and evening across southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. The warm front may have trouble moving northward during the day, and with chilly air in place and a little bit of precipitation possible, it could fall in the form of a little freezing drizzle, especially in southern New Hampshire, which could result in some slippery conditions Wednesday evening. This is a scenario that happens quite often during the fall and winter, and the models usually handle it poorly, or miss it completely, as they usually overestimate how quickly the warmer air will move in and how far north it can get. We’ve seen the models blow this type of forecast countless times, and the setup is there for it to happen again.

That next system brings in more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Right now, it looks like most of the rain will be in the morning, but there are still some timing differences among the models, so showers may linger into the afternoon, and possibly even the evening. High pressure builds in behind that system with drier and cooler weather again on Friday, though a few showers are possible as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region.

Next weekend also has some questions, as the models all have differing solutions. Some models want to bring a weak system through late Saturday with some showers, then have high pressure build back in on Sunday, with another system potentially bringing in some rain next Monday. Others keep high pressure in control for much of the weekend, but have the next system move in at some point late Sunday or Sunday night. They also differ on the track of that system, which has significant implications for temperatures on Sunday. So, our forecast for next weekend is very-low confidence at this point, and may end up significantly different when we issue our weekend outlook (which will be on Wednesday this week instead of the normal Thursday).

Monday: Breezy with showers and some steadier rain this morning, possibly a rumble of thunder as well, ending by early afternoon, then skies start to clear out by evening. High 54-61 in the morning, but temperatures may drop pretty quickly during the afternoon.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy and breezy. Low 27-34.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy in the morning. High 37-44.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, high clouds start to move in after midnight. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a shower or two, possibly some freezing drizzle across southern New Hampshire during the evening or at night. High 36-43 north of the Mass Pike, 44-51 south of the Pike.

Thanksgiving: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, ending during the afternoon. High 42-49 in southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley, 50-57 elsewhere.

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 49-56.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 49-56.

Sunday: A sunny start, clouds move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.

After last night’s squall line, conditions will be significantly quieter for most of this week.

High pressure builds into the region today with breezy and cooler conditions as a cold front continues to push offshore. We’ll have some clouds popping up in the afternoon as cooler air moves in aloft, but we should remain dry. Another cold front will move through late Tuesday. This one may produce a few rain or snow showers, but for most of us it will pass through with little fanfare.

Behind that front, much colder air will settle in for Wednesday. Temperatures likely won’t reach 40, with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens. As winds die down Wednesday night, low temperatures will drop into the teens across much of the region. Thursday will still be chilly, but with high pressure sliding offshore, temperatures will start to moderate a bit. The moderating trend continues into the weekend, as temperatures climb back above normal for the latter half of November.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, breezy. High 45-52.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for a late-day rain or snow shower. High 40-47.

Tuesday night: Clearing, colder. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. High 29-36.

Thursday: Partly sunny, breezy. High 39-46.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52-59.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 51-58.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 49-56.