Yup, we’ve got some November Rain in the forecast, so that seemed liked an appropriate intro to this week’s update. We’ve also got Election Day tomorrow, so you know what that means – we’ll finally get regular annoying commercials back on TV Wednesday instead of all of the political ones! Oh yeah, and make sure you get out and vote. Or don’t. It’s your choice. We’re going to stay out of politics here, because this is a weather blog. So, without further delay, let’s get to the forecast.

The week starts off with an area of low pressure passing south of the region. It will give us plenty of clouds today, along with some showers during the afternoon, and maybe some steadier rain at night, but all-in-all, this system isn’t that big of a deal. However, the system right behind it, will have a bit more of an impact. It will move into the Great Lakes Tuesday before heading into southern Canada. It will bring in some steadier and heavier rain on Tuesday, so make sure you elect to bring an umbrella with you that day. It will drag a cold front through late in the day, which will bring an end to the rain. The system will also bring in some milder conditions, at least south of the Mass Pike. We’ll see how far north the warm air actually gets. Some models try to bring it up into southern New Hampshire, others keep it confined to southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. For now, we’re going with the warmth extending into southern New Hampshire, but there is a significant bust potential there – temperatures could end up 5-15 degrees cooler than what we’re currently thinking.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday, and it looks like it may remain mild. That won’t last though, as cooler weather moves in on Thursday as the high slides right across the region. By Friday, clouds stream back in ahead of the next system. This one should be a fairly quick-moving one, but it will bring another round of rain in late Friday and Friday, ending early Saturday morning.

High pressure builds in once again next weekend, with another round of cooler conditions. This looks like the coolest airmass yet, as much of the area may stay in the 40s for highs both Saturday and Sunday. Normal highs for mid-November are still in the lower to middle 50s, so while this is cool, it’s not unusual for this time of year.If you’ve been resisting turning your heat on, you may finally lose that battle, as nighttime lows will be mainly in the 20s and 30s. Some clouds may move back in late Sunday as another weak system moves out of the Great Lakes. This may bring in some light precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Notice that we said “precipitation” and not “rain.” That’s because we’re not sure it will be just rain. Whatever falls, it doesn’t look like much at all, but don’t be surprised if we see some flakes around here around that time. There’s also the potential for another storm on Tuesday that may contain more precipitation, and again, may not be entirely liquid. We’ll have more detail on that in next week’s outlook, if things don’t change (which they almost certainly will).

Monday: Cloudy with some showers possible in the afternoon. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Temperatures hold steady or rise a few degrees overnight.

Tuesday: Some showers and drizzle early, windy with steadier rain developing in the afternoon. High 57-64, possibly cooler, especially in southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Rain ends in the evening, then skies clear out after midnight, still breezy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy again. High 54-61.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 47-54.

Friday: Some early sun, otherwise becoming cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon, becoming a steady rain at night. High 46-53.

Saturday: Showers ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 44-51.

Sunday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 38-45.

We’ll tell you right now – the best day of the week is going to be Wednesday, and not because it’s Halloween. It’s going to be an absolutely glorious day. Why? That’s when the parade is.

YOUR BOSTON #REDSOX ARE THE 2018 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS! #DAMAGEDONE pic.twitter.com/ax05nkT8k7

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) October 29, 2018

As for the weather itself, well, a good chunk of the week should be nice, and believe it or not…..mild! The week starts off on a damp note though, as a little system comes rolling in from the west, giving us some rain showers this morning, ending by early afternoon. We’re not looking at a lot of rain, certainly nothing compared to what we had on Saturday, but it will fall during the morning commute, so, be prepared for that.

After that, high pressure builds in with dry and warmer conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. If you’re heading to the parade on Wednesday, expect plenty of sunshine with temperatures in the 50s. For trick-or-treaters that evening, expect it to be dry abd possibly a little breezy with temperatures generally in the middle to upper 50s. By Thursday, we’ll really start to warm up with temperatures getting into the 60s, but it will come with clouds as a storm system starts to approach the area. That storm passes to our north and west Thursday night into Friday, with some rain likely along with the mild temperatures. A cold front brings an end to the rain and the mild weather late Friday.

We’ll have a brief break on Friday night, but another system will start to head up the coast early Saturday, with a chilly rain expected for much of Saturday and Saturday night. This system may produce a little bit of snow in the mountains, but we shouldn’t have much to worry about around here. High pressure builds in on Sunday with dry and cooler conditions.

Also, don’t forget, Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday morning at 2am. If you have any clocks that don’t automatically update, then you’ll need to change them back an hour Saturday night. The good news is that you’ll get an extra hour of sleep. It’ll help make up for all the sleep you lost staying up for the Red Sox games.

Monday: Showers ending by early afternoon, some clearing develops late in the day. High 50-57.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 44-51.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 30-37.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, becoming breezy. High 55-62.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. High 62-69.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 59-66.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with more rain likely. High 50-57.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 49-56.

The forecast for this week is fairly straightforward for most of the work week. Next weekend? Well, there could be some issues.

The week starts off on a chilly, but dry note with high pressure in control. If you’re up early enough, you may need to find the scraper for your windshield before you head out. Either that, or turn the defroster on and let in run for a but before you get in the car.Yup, it’s that time of year again. Clouds will start to stream in late in the day as a fast-moving storm system approaches from the Great Lakes. That system will bring us some rain showers on Tuesday. If the rain moves in early enough, we could see some snowflakes mixing in, mainly across the higher terrain from central Massachusetts into southwestern New Hampshire.

As that system departs, it will start to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Maine and Atlantic Canada. It may drop a decent a mount of snow from the mountains of northern New England into parts of northern Maine and New Brunswick, but around here, we can expect breezy and cooler conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure builds in on Thursday, allowing the winds to die down, with dry and cool conditions continuing into Saturday.

Later Saturday and into Sunday is where things start to get complicated. Hurricane Willa will make landfall in southwestern Mexico on Tuesday, then move into Texas, and then the Gulf of Mexico (but not as a tropical system any more). From there, it will start to head up the East Coast, while becoming a strong storm system once again. High pressure to the north should block in from getting in here on Saturday, though the clouds ahead of the system will move in. It’s Sunday that could be a problem. As the high continues to retreat to the north and east, we’ll still have plenty of cold air in place Saturday night into Sunday. As the storm starts to move up the coast, it will spread some moisture into the region. If you have cold air trapped at the surface while moisture and milder air move in aloft, you have the potential for problems. While coastal areas will just see a gusty winds and a cold rain, across interior areas, we have the potential for some sleet or freezing rain on Sunday. Milder air should eventually win out, with a change to all rain even across the interior. There are other models that have the storm pass to our west, which would just mean a wind-swept mild rain. Obviously, there’s a lot of uncertainty with future of this system. For now, we’re leaning towards the colder scenario, but it’s low confidence. As we get later in the week, if this scenario becomes more likely, we’ll keep you updated.

Monday: Sunny and chilly to start, clouds start to move in during the afternoon. High 45-52.

Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy, showers developing towards daybreak, possibly mixed with some wet snowflakes across the interior. Low 35-42.

Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High 45-52 north and west of I-495, 53-60 elsewhere.

Tuesday night: Showers ending in the evening, then some clearing late at night. Low 34-41.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 46-53.

Thursday: Sunshine and a few clouds, still breezy. High 40-47.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 41-48.

Saturday: Some early sun, otherwise thickening clouds throughout the day. Breezy again. High 44-51.

Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with rain likely , possibly starting as a period of freezing rain and/or sleet across the interior. High 39-46 north and west of I-495, 47-54 elsewhere.

Fall has finally arrived, and you’ll know it for sure this week. If you’re playing the game of trying to avoid turning on the heat before November 1, there’s a good chance you’ll lose before this week is out.

We start the week off with low pressure passing well north of our area. This low used to be Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific Ocean. As it moved across the nation’s mid-section, it produced severe weather in the Mississippi Valley and heavy snow from the Rockies into parts of the Plains. Nothing like that is expected here, but it will bring in some milder air today, along with some showers, mainly during the afternoon an evening. A cold front trailing the system pushes through in the evening which produce some heavier showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, and some gusty winds.

High pressure builds in on Tuesday with sunshine and breezy conditions, but it’ll turn cooler. The high slides offshore on Wednesday, allowing slightly milder air to move back in, but it’ll be short-lived. Another cold front approaches. This one won’t contain a lot of moisture, so only a few showers are expected. Behind it, windy and much cooler conditions are expected on Thursday. In fact, Thursday will likely be the coolest day we’ve had since the end of April, with high temperatures likely staying below 50 across much of the region.

The cool shot doesn’t last long though, as high pressure moves offshore, allowing temperatures to moderate again. However, another cold front moves through on Saturday, bringing some more showers to the region. Once again, the front moves through, and windy and cooler conditions return on Sunday.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely, especially during the afternoon. High 59-66.

Monday night: Showers end in the evening, possibly with some thunder, then skies clear out by daybreak. Low 40-47.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy. High 50-57.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 39-46.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, slight chance for a late-day shower. High 53-60.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 41-48.

Friday: Sunshine dimmed by afternoon high clouds. High 53-60.

Saturday: Cloudy with some showers possible. High 54-61.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 44-51.

Much of the week will not feel like October once again, but changes are coming. Enjoy the warm weather we’ll have this week, it might not be back for a while.

The week starts out on a cool note. A backdoor front crossed the region on Sunday, and high pressure has built in behind it. With the high in control, temperatures will be cool, but with the front stalled out nearby, we’ll still have plenty of clouds along with some showers. The front lifts northward again early Tuesday as a warm front. Tuesday and Wednesday won’t exactly be hazy, hot, and humid, but partly sunny and unseasonably warm will have to suffice. After that, things get interesting.

Tropical Storm Michael formed on Sunday and is now moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Most of the forecast models show the potential for the storm to rapidly intensify before slamming into the Gulf Coast, likely near the Florida Panhandle, on Wednesday. A lot of these models seem a bit too aggressive in their development of Michael, but they are in fairly good agreement on its track. Once inland, it should head northeastward, bringing more heavy rain to the Carolinas (just what they need!), before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and passing south of New England on Friday. At the same time, low pressure moving into southern Canada will drag a strong cold front through the region. These two will combine to bring an end to the warm weather, but also to produce gusty winds and some heavy rain Thursday into Friday. The front brings in some rain on Thursday, then Michael brings in another round on Friday. How heavy the rain on Friday will be is still up in the air, as it depends on the exact track the Michael, or whatever is left of it by then, actually takes. The best chance for heavy rain will be south of the Mass Pike.

On Thursday, we may have another wrinkle to throw in – another backdoor front. Some of the models are showing the potential for a backdoor front moving down from Maine Wednesday night, bringing some cooler air into Maine, New Hampshire, and at least northeastern Massachusetts before the front stalls out, and then lifts northward again in the afternoon, before the strong cold front arrives from the west. Other models show Thursday remaining quite mild until the front arrives in the afternoon. We’re going to lean towards the cooler side for now, but keep in mind that it could end up being several degrees warmer than our forecast shows.

Behind the cold front and what’s left of Michael, much cooler weather will move into the region next weekend. How cool? Many of the models show the potential for some wet snow across parts of northern New England, especially in the mountains. One model shows the cold air moving in well before the moisture arrives, with some heavy snow in parts of Maine, extending into the mountains of New Hampshire, but we’re not buying that solution as of yet. As for this area, no snow, but it’ll definitely by cooler with partial sunshine as high pressure tries to build in.

Meanwhile, what about the weather in the Bronx this evening for the pivotal Game 3 between the Sox and Yankees? Well, it’ll likely be cloudy, with a light east wind, which is blowing in from center. A shower is possible, but it shouldn’t interrupt the game. Temperatures will likely be in the middle 60s. For Game 4 on Tuesday, we’re expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies, a light southwest wind (blowing out to left), and temperatures starting in the middle 70s, dropping into the upper 60s by the end of the game. If a Game 5 is needed, it’s scheduled for 7:40pm on Thursday at Fenway. Right now, that forecast looks like rain, southwest winds 5-10 mph (blowing out to center), and temperatures around 70. A delay until Friday would likely be needed, and even that wouldn’t be a sure thing.

Monday: Plenty of clouds, chance for a shower or two. High 57-64.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 51-58 in the evening, then temperatures hold steady or slowly rise a bit overnight.

Tuesday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog developing. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 76-83.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers developing, becoming a steady rain at night. High 68-75.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and cooler, with a chance for more rain, possibly heavy, especially south of the Mass Pike and mainly during the morning. High 59-66.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine, windy. High 49-56.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 53-60.

October has arrived, which means that 2018 is now 3/4 over. October can be an interesting month. We’ve had snow before, but we’ve also hit 90. Over average high temperatures start the month in the upper 60s, and end the month in the upper 50s. Most locations in our area will see their first frost during October in most years. Of course, October is also one of the best months of the year if you’re a sports fan. The Patriots season is in full swing, the Red Sox start the playoffs this week, the Bruins open their season this week, the Celtics start their season in a couple of weeks, and the Revolution…..ummm….sorry Revs fans, another disappointing season is almost over. What about the weather for this week? Well, we’re going to have another week with a little bit of everything (except snow).

The week starts off with a backdoor cold front dropping down from the north. We’ll have a mild day ahead of it south of the Mass Pike, but a few showers are possible late in the day and tonight as the front moves through. The front will stall out near or just south of the region, and a wave of low pressure will ride along it on Tuesday. This will bring in a period of steadier rain. While some of the rain could be heavy, we’re not looking at a repeat of some recent systems that have dropped several inches of rain on the area.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday with drier conditions, but as the high slides offshore, another warmup is expected for Thursday. This warmup will be short-lived however, as another cold front brings in more showers Thursday night. Another high pressure area builds in for Friday and Saturday with dry and cooler conditions once again. It doesn’t look like there will be any weather problems aside from cool temperatures for Game 1 of the American League Division Series at Fenway on Friday, or Game 2 on Saturday (times still unknown), but we’ll keep an eye on things, as the pattern can change fairly quickly. By Sunday, high pressure moves offshore again, with another warmup expected across the area.

Monday: Some sunshine to start, especially south of the Mass Pike, then clouding up with showers developing during the afternoon. High 58-65 north of the Mass Pike, 65-72 south of the Pike.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers along with some drizzle and fog. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely, possibly a period of some steady rain late in the day. High 59-66, possibly warmer south of the Mass Pike.

Tuesday night: Rain tapers off and ends, with some gradual clearing developing towards daybreak. Low 54-61 in the evening, with temperatures holding steady overnight, possibly rising a bit, especially south of the Mass Pike.

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67-74.

Thursday: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for a few showers during the evening. High 70-77.

Friday: Some early clouds, then becoming partly sunny, breezy., and cooler. High 59-66.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 60-67.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 70-77.

We’ve entered the final week of September, and once again, we’ve got a little bit of everything in the forecast this week (except for snow).

The week starts off on a chilly note as high pressure moves across Maine and into Atlantic Canada. There will likely be frost and freezing temperatures across Northern New England to start the day. With high clouds filtering the sunshine and a chilly airmass in place, temperatures may struggle to reach 60 across our area. We commented to our fellow blogger and friend at Woods Hill Weather a few days ago that Monday looked like the first “Stop at Dunks for a Hot Chocolate” afternoon of the year.

The cool air won’t hang around too long, as a warm front will move through late Tuesday. It will be preceded by some heavy rainfall. While this round of rain won’t compare to last week, when many places picked up 2-4 inches or more, we are still looking at 1-2 inches of rain for much of the region, which will lead to some nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. The heaviest of the rain looks to fall from right around the morning commute until right around the evening commute. So, much of the day will be a washout.

Wednesday will actually be another warm and humid day. with the warm front north of the region Temperatures should get well up into the 70s, with some lower 80s possible if we can get enough sunshine. However, you’ll need to keep the umbrellas handy once again. We may have some lingering showers in the morning, especially south of Boston, but it’s the afternoon that we need to keep an eye on. With a cold front approaching from the west, some thunderstorms will likely develop, and some of them could be strong to severe. The main threats with these storms will be heavy downpours and strong winds. While severe weather is uncommon in New England this late in the year, it is not unheard of. In fact, one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in New England, an F4, struck Windsor Locks, Connecticut on October 3, 1979.

Once the cold front moves through, high pressure builds in for the end of the week and into the weekend with dry and seasonably mild conditions. There are a few chances for a little rain, depending on which forecast model you happen to look at. So, this period might not be completely dry, but we’re certainly not looking at a washout either, at least not at this point.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through high clouds, but those clouds will start to thicken up late in the day. High 56-63.

Monday night: Cloudy. Low 47-54.

Tuesday: Breezy with periods of rain developing. possibly heavy at times. High 62-69.

Tuesday night: Rain tapers off to occasional showers, gradually ending overnight. Low 58-65 in the evening, then temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Wednesday: A few lingering showers south of Boston early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High 73-80.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 63-70.

Friday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 64-71.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 65-72.

Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 62-69.

Yup, It’s gonna rain alright. In fact, it’s gonna rain a LOT. But, overall, the week won’t be that bad.

The week actually starts off with high pressure hanging on for one more dry day. We may have some fog around in the morning, but once it burns off, we’ll see the sun come out. However, high clouds will start streaming in, dimming the sunshine. They’ll thicken up as the day goes on. Showers will develop at night what’s left of Florence starts to move toward the region.

The remains of Florence will move through on Tuesday, bringing us rain – a lot of it. Now, we’re not going to get 2-3 feet like they had in the Carolinas, but a widespread 1-3 inches is likely, with some heavier amounts. The rain will come down heavy at times, and winds will be a little gusty at times. We may even have a few rumbles of thunder. Some localized flooding is possible, so you may want to be careful if you’re out and about on Tuesday.

The rain ends Tuesday night, but skies may be slow to clear on Wednesday. Once they do high pressure builds in with drier and cooler conditions that last into Thursday. Another quick-moving system may bring in some more showers on Friday, before high pressure returns on Saturday. Then, another system quickly moves in for Sunday with more showers expected.

Monday: Morning fog burns off revealing sunshine which then fades behind increasing and thickening clouds. High 77-84.

Monday night: Cloudy with showers developing, becoming a steady rain by daybreak. Low 63-70.

Tuesday: Breezy with periods of rain, heavy at times, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Showers ending in the evening, but skies remain mostly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Wednesday: Clouds eventually give way to partly to mostly sunny skies. High 66-73.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71.

Friday: Cloudy and breezy with some showers possible in the morning and then again late in the day and at night. High 72-79.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Sunday: Cloudy with some rain possible. High 65-72.

We’ve got a little bit of everything in the forecast this week – cool weather, warm and humid weather, heavy rain, thunderstorms, and sunshine. What about a hurricane? Not likely in this neck of the woods, but we’ll get to Florence in this outlook.

The week starts off on a cool note with high pressure trying to hang on, but it will lose its grip on the region quickly. A warm front will start to move up from the south while low pressure also starts to approach from the west. That low pressure area contains the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon, and thus is very juicy. It dropped several inches of rain on the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rain should spread across our area today from south to north. Some of the rain could be locally heavy, especially today and tonight. We’ll also have some gusty winds, especially along the coastline. These winds, combined with astronomical high tides, could result in a little bit of coastal flooding, especially along east-facing shorelines around high tide. Keep that in mind if your travels bring you along the coast around midday today. Rough surf from Florence will start impacting the coast, especially the south coast over the next day or two, and will likely build through the week.

The rain continues tonight as a warm front moves across the area. Temperatures will actually go up overnight as the warm and humid air moves in. Tuesday will not be a washout, but we’ll have occasional showers and thunderstorms with the warm and humid air in place. Low pressure passes north of the region later Tuesday, bringing a cold front in. The front will likely dissipate as it tries to cross the area, but will provide just enough instability for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

High pressure builds in on Thursday, with sunshine and less humid conditions expected. This high will remain in place right through the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies, warm conditions and comfortable humidity. It will also serve to block Hurricane Florence from coming up here. It could also make things that much worse for the Mid-Atlantic states and the Southeast.

The exact track of Florence is still a question, that it seems fairly certain that it will at least come close to the Carolinas. Whether or not it makes landfall is still not certain. One thing that does seem more likely is that Florence is going to stall out somewhere near the Carolinas as it gets blocked by the high sitting over the Northeast. Whether it stalls just off the coast or inland will make a difference in terms of how much wind and storm surge damage and how quickly the system starts to wind down. What it won’t make a difference with is the fact that it’s going to produce a lot of rain across the area, with widespread flooding. Determining exactly what area will get what conditions will be something that we’ll narrow down in the next few days as we get a better of idea what the track that Florence will take.

The ECMWF is forecasting as much as 15-30 inches of rain, centered in inland North Carolina southwestern Virginia. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

The GFS is forecasting as much as 15-30 inches of rain, centered in coastal North Carolina southeastern Virginia. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with showers developing from south to north, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 60-67.

Monday night: Periods of rain, heavy at times in the evening, tapering off to showers overnight, maybe a rumble of thunder or two as well. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, humid, occasional showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and some patchy fog possible. Low 63-70.

Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.

Saturday: Sunshine continues. High 75-82.

Sunday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 76-83.

We wrote an extensive post about the tropics Saturday night, and not much has changed since then. Hurricane Helene is pulling away from the Cabo Verde Islands and destined to be a fish storm. Hurricane Isaac will become an increasing threat to the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. Hurricane Olivia will weaken before crossing the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the island chain. Tropical Storm Paul will remain weak over open water in the Eastern Pacific. Typhoon Mangkhut is crossing the Northern Mariana Islands this morning. A new tropical depression has also formed near Taiwan. We may also have another system to watch in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. We’ll have another special blog post about the tropics tomorrow, where we’ll go into a little more detail, especially about Florence, Isaac, Olivia, and the potential system in the Gulf, since those are the ones that will be the biggest threats to land.

We’re into September, which means that meteorological fall has started. Time for cooler weather, leaves changing colors, pumpkin-flavored everything, and football. So naturally, we’re starting the week off with hot and humid conditions.

A ridge of high pressure remains in place off the East Coast, so the hot and humid weather that we’ve dealt with for much of the summer has returned. Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the region, as temperatures should get well into the 80s and lower 90s both today and Tuesday. However, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s, the heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s, hence the heat advisories.

Later on Tuesday, a backdoor cold front will drop southward, bringing some cooler air into eastern parts of the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday. “Cooler” is a relative term. In April or May, a backdoor front results in easterly or northeasterly winds off of water that is only in the 40s and 50s, so coastal areas get quite chill while it stays relatively mild well inland. In this case, we’ll have northeast or east winds blowing off of water that is in the lower 70s, so it’s not going to cool off that much at the coast.

The front lifts back northward Wednesday night, resulting in another hot and humid day on Thursday. However, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest. This front may kick off some showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into Thursday night and early Friday. This is where things get more questionable. That front will likely stall out near the South Coast. Exactly where it stalls out is not clear though. If it stalls right along the South Coast, then Friday and Saturday could be cool and damp with periods of showers at times. If it stalls much farther offshore, then the clouds may hang around, especially from Boston southward, but the showers would likely stay offshore. For now, we’re leaning towards the drier scenario. Sunday is an even bigger question mark. One model has high pressure build in with partial sunshine and temperatures only in the 60s, while another model has low pressure move into the Great Lakes, likely the remains of what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (more on that in a moment), with cool conditions, but also some rain in the afternoon. Since that’s the Patriots home opener, we’ll be keeping an eye on that forecast as the week goes on.

Labor Day: Some patchy fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, a little cooler along the South Coast.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 68-75.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a few showers. High 85-92, turning cooler along the east coast in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Early clouds, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 81-88, coolest along the coast.

Thursday: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the day and at night. High 87-94.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a few more showers are possible. High 72-79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine.  High 68-75.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, chance for showers in the afternoon.  High 65-72.

Now that we’re into September, we’re approaching the peak on tropical season in the Atlantic, and we have 2 systems to keep an eye on. The more immediate threat is a system that at the time this blog was written was still labelled Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven”. It is expected to become a tropical depression at some point on Monday as it crosses the Florida Keys. It will then turn northwestward while strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. The current track calls for landfall in southeastern Louisiana Tuesday night as a tropical storm. Storm surge flooding and gusty winds will be threats with this system, but the main threat is heavy rain that could lead to flooding across much of the Gulf Coast.

Well out into the Atlantic we have Tropical Storm Florence. Florence is expected to remain fairly weak as it crosses the Atlantic over the next several days, with only some minor fluctuations in intensity. You may have read on the internet over the weekend that Florence is a threat to the East Coast. Yes, a couple of the models do show that potential, but many others don’t. At this point, it’s more hype than anything else. If it were to become a threat, that would still be a good 10 days or so from now. We’re not worried about it right now. We’d put the odds of an East Coast threat fairly low right now, but not zero, not yet. If it were to become a threat, we’d let you know well in advance.