We’ve got a little bit of everything in the forecast this week – cool weather, warm and humid weather, heavy rain, thunderstorms, and sunshine. What about a hurricane? Not likely in this neck of the woods, but we’ll get to Florence in this outlook.
The week starts off on a cool note with high pressure trying to hang on, but it will lose its grip on the region quickly. A warm front will start to move up from the south while low pressure also starts to approach from the west. That low pressure area contains the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon, and thus is very juicy. It dropped several inches of rain on the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rain should spread across our area today from south to north. Some of the rain could be locally heavy, especially today and tonight. We’ll also have some gusty winds, especially along the coastline. These winds, combined with astronomical high tides, could result in a little bit of coastal flooding, especially along east-facing shorelines around high tide. Keep that in mind if your travels bring you along the coast around midday today. Rough surf from Florence will start impacting the coast, especially the south coast over the next day or two, and will likely build through the week.
The rain continues tonight as a warm front moves across the area. Temperatures will actually go up overnight as the warm and humid air moves in. Tuesday will not be a washout, but we’ll have occasional showers and thunderstorms with the warm and humid air in place. Low pressure passes north of the region later Tuesday, bringing a cold front in. The front will likely dissipate as it tries to cross the area, but will provide just enough instability for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
High pressure builds in on Thursday, with sunshine and less humid conditions expected. This high will remain in place right through the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies, warm conditions and comfortable humidity. It will also serve to block Hurricane Florence from coming up here. It could also make things that much worse for the Mid-Atlantic states and the Southeast.
The exact track of Florence is still a question, that it seems fairly certain that it will at least come close to the Carolinas. Whether or not it makes landfall is still not certain. One thing that does seem more likely is that Florence is going to stall out somewhere near the Carolinas as it gets blocked by the high sitting over the Northeast. Whether it stalls just off the coast or inland will make a difference in terms of how much wind and storm surge damage and how quickly the system starts to wind down. What it won’t make a difference with is the fact that it’s going to produce a lot of rain across the area, with widespread flooding. Determining exactly what area will get what conditions will be something that we’ll narrow down in the next few days as we get a better of idea what the track that Florence will take.
Monday: Cloudy, breezy, and cool with showers developing from south to north, becoming a steady rain late in the day. High 60-67.
Monday night: Periods of rain, heavy at times in the evening, tapering off to showers overnight, maybe a rumble of thunder or two as well. Temperatures slowly rise overnight.
Tuesday: Plenty of clouds, breezy, humid, occasional showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and some patchy fog possible. Low 63-70.
Wednesday: More clouds than sunshine chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. High 76-83.
Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 74-81.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine. High 73-80.
Saturday: Sunshine continues. High 75-82.
Sunday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 76-83.
We wrote an extensive post about the tropics Saturday night, and not much has changed since then. Hurricane Helene is pulling away from the Cabo Verde Islands and destined to be a fish storm. Hurricane Isaac will become an increasing threat to the Lesser Antilles in the next few days. Hurricane Olivia will weaken before crossing the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the island chain. Tropical Storm Paul will remain weak over open water in the Eastern Pacific. Typhoon Mangkhut is crossing the Northern Mariana Islands this morning. A new tropical depression has also formed near Taiwan. We may also have another system to watch in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. We’ll have another special blog post about the tropics tomorrow, where we’ll go into a little more detail, especially about Florence, Isaac, Olivia, and the potential system in the Gulf, since those are the ones that will be the biggest threats to land.