Weekly Outlook: November 5-11, 2018

Yup, we’ve got some November Rain in the forecast, so that seemed liked an appropriate intro to this week’s update. We’ve also got Election Day tomorrow, so you know what that means – we’ll finally get regular annoying commercials back on TV Wednesday instead of all of the political ones! Oh yeah, and make sure you get out and vote. Or don’t. It’s your choice. We’re going to stay out of politics here, because this is a weather blog. So, without further delay, let’s get to the forecast.

The week starts off with an area of low pressure passing south of the region. It will give us plenty of clouds today, along with some showers during the afternoon, and maybe some steadier rain at night, but all-in-all, this system isn’t that big of a deal. However, the system right behind it, will have a bit more of an impact. It will move into the Great Lakes Tuesday before heading into southern Canada. It will bring in some steadier and heavier rain on Tuesday, so make sure you elect to bring an umbrella with you that day. It will drag a cold front through late in the day, which will bring an end to the rain. The system will also bring in some milder conditions, at least south of the Mass Pike. We’ll see how far north the warm air actually gets. Some models try to bring it up into southern New Hampshire, others keep it confined to southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. For now, we’re going with the warmth extending into southern New Hampshire, but there is a significant bust potential there – temperatures could end up 5-15 degrees cooler than what we’re currently thinking.

More rain? Most of the region has received 10-15 inches since Labor Day. We don’t need any more for now! Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday, and it looks like it may remain mild. That won’t last though, as cooler weather moves in on Thursday as the high slides right across the region. By Friday, clouds stream back in ahead of the next system. This one should be a fairly quick-moving one, but it will bring another round of rain in late Friday and Friday, ending early Saturday morning.

GFS 50-STATES USA undefined undefined 150
Heading out Saturday night? Wind chills could be in the 20s to lower 30s. Better find that winter coat you stored away. Maybe some gloves and a hat too. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

High pressure builds in once again next weekend, with another round of cooler conditions. This looks like the coolest airmass yet, as much of the area may stay in the 40s for highs both Saturday and Sunday. Normal highs for mid-November are still in the lower to middle 50s, so while this is cool, it’s not unusual for this time of year.If you’ve been resisting turning your heat on, you may finally lose that battle, as nighttime lows will be mainly in the 20s and 30s. Some clouds may move back in late Sunday as another weak system moves out of the Great Lakes. This may bring in some light precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Notice that we said “precipitation” and not “rain.” That’s because we’re not sure it will be just rain. Whatever falls, it doesn’t look like much at all, but don’t be surprised if we see some flakes around here around that time. There’s also the potential for another storm on Tuesday that may contain more precipitation, and again, may not be entirely liquid. We’ll have more detail on that in next week’s outlook, if things don’t change (which they almost certainly will).

Monday: Cloudy with some showers possible in the afternoon. High 46-53.

Monday night: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. Temperatures hold steady or rise a few degrees overnight.

Tuesday: Some showers and drizzle early, windy with steadier rain developing in the afternoon. High 57-64, possibly cooler, especially in southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Rain ends in the evening, then skies clear out after midnight, still breezy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy again. High 54-61.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 47-54.

Friday: Some early sun, otherwise becoming cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon, becoming a steady rain at night. High 46-53.

Saturday: Showers ending in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy in the afternoon. High 44-51.

Sunday: A sunny start, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 38-45.

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