Weekly Outlook: March 28-April 3, 2022

No, Mother Nature is not playing an early April Fool’s joke on us, today really will be quite chilly.

The week starts out on a very chilly note as an upper-level low pressure system slowly moves across the Northeast. We’ll have some sunny breaks today but there will be plenty of clouds and possibly a few snow showers or flurries during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be well below normal for late March, with highs only in the 30s, possibly upper 20s in some spots. This will likely break records for the lowest high temperature for the date across much of the Northeast. Add in gusty winds, and wind chills will only be in the teens (or colder), so bundle up if you’re heading outside today. Skies will clear out tonight as high pressure builds in, resulting in a rather cold night, possibly setting low temperature records in spots, as lows drop into the teens in many locations.

Record low high temperatures are likely across much of the Northeast today. Image provided by WeatherBell.

High pressure starts to slide off to the east on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to begin to moderate, but it will remain on the chilly side. Wednesday should be milder, but clouds will start to stream into the region as a complex low pressure system heads into the Great Lakes. That system will send a warm front toward the region on Thursday. Ahead of the warm front, we could see a little snow or sleet Wednesday night, especially across the interior. Milder air should eventually move in for Thursday as the warm front finally pushes through, but rain showers are likely Thursday night into early Friday before the storm sends a cold front across the region. How quickly that warm front moves through on Thursday will determine our temperatures. Some of the guidance is showing the potential for temperatures well into the 60s, but some of the models don’t bring the warmer air into the Merrimack Valley or southern New Hampshire until late afternoon or evening, resulting in a much cooler day. Steady rain ends early Friday, but some showers could linger during the day. Next weekend looks dry and cooler as high pressure builds back in.

Depending on how quickly the warm front moves through, Thursday could be quite mild. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, blustery, chance for a few snow showers or flurries. High 27-34.

Monday night: Becoming clear to partly cloudy, breezy, and cold. Low 14-21.

Tuesday: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, still breezy. High 34-41.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 19-26.

Wednesday: Early sun, then clouds increase and thicken. A few showers possible at night, maybe mixed with sleet or snow across the interior. High 42-49.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely. High 55-62, possibly a little cooler across southern New Hampshire.

Friday: More clouds than sunshine, breezy, chance for a few more showers. High 56-63.

Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 46-53.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 50-57.

Weekly Outlook: March 21-27, 2022

Now that Spring has officially arrived, cooler weather will return.

The week starts off with high pressure building into eastern Canada, providing us with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions for today and Tuesday. By Wednesday, that high will start to slide eastward as low pressure heads toward the Great Lakes, sending some clouds our way. Precipitation looks to spread in Wednesday night, and there may be enough cold air in place that allows it to start as some snow or a wintry mix, at least across the interior. Everything should go over to plain rain on Thursday, and some of it could be heavy as a secondary area of low pressure develops nearby and moves right across the region. Rain ends early Friday as that low pulls away, but with another upper-level low pressure area slowly moving in, we’ll start have a decent amount of cloud cover along with the threat of some pop-up showers Friday afternoon. For the weekend, that upper-level low will cross the Northeast, and a new area of low pressure will develop at the surface near the Mid-Atlantic coast. While the surface low may be too far offshore to have much impact, it may interact with the upper-level low to produce some additional rain or snow showers next weekend.

Around an inch of much-needed rainfall us expected later this week. I age provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds, breezy. High 47-54.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High 43-50.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 25-32.

Wednesday: Some sun in the morning, then clouds move in during the afternoon with rain or snow showers developing in the evening. High 41-48.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain likely, possibly some wintry mix across the interior during the early morning. High 42-49.

Friday: Rain ends early, otherwise plenty of clouds and a few sunny breaks, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 52-59.

Saturday: More clouds than sunshine with a rain or snow shower possible. High 47-54.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few rain or snow shower. High 45-52.

Weekly Outlook: March 14-20, 2022

Astronomical spring begins on Sunday at 11:33am, but we’re already 2 weeks into meteorological spring, and this week it will feel like it.

High pressure slides offshore today, allowing for milder air to move back into the region. Tuesday looks to be mild as well, but a cold front will be dropping southward with a weak area of low pressure riding along it. This may bring in a few showers Tuesday night, possibly even mixed with a little wet snow across central and southern New Hampshire. That front will stall out nearby, so areas to the south may stay mild on Wednesday, but much of the region will be on the cooler side, though still a little above normal for mid-March. Thursday looks to be similar with some clouds and possibly even a few showers as another low pressure system passes by to the south. This brings us to Friday, which is most definitely the pick of the week.

On average, high temperatures in mid-March are usually in the middle 40s. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Low pressure will head into the Great Lakes, sending a warm front across the region. With some sunshine and southwesterly winds, temperatures should get well into the 60s away from the South Coast, with lower 70s possible. Saturday’s forecast is a bit trickier. That storm system will head into southeastern Canada, with 1 of 2 things possibly happening – We could have another very warm day with showers developing ahead of a cold front or a secondary area of low pressure develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast, resulting in more rain and significantly cooler temperatures. We’re going to lean towards the first scenario for now, but are cognizant of the fact that the second one is just as likely to happen. Either way, Sunday looks drier and seasonably cool.

The models don’t agree on what will happen on Saturday. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 47-54.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 34-41.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with a few late-day showers possible, mainly north of the Mass Pike. High 55-62, a little cooler across southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers during the evening north of the Mass Pike, possibly mixed with snow across southern New Hampshire. Low 32-39.

Wednesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 51-58, cooler along the coast.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, chance for a shower, especially near the South Coast. High 56-63.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 64-71, cooler along the South Coast.

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy with showers likely, ending in the afternoon. High 50-57.

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, and cool. High 51-58.

Weekly Outlook: March 7-13, 2022

As you’d expect as we get into Spring, things will change quite a bit this week.

Low pressure will pass across New England today, bringing some rain in, mainly this afternoon and evening. With temperatures remaining mild, especially across Massachusetts, there’s even the potential for a rumble of thunder. The system pulls away tonight, setting up a sunny but breezy and cooler day on Tuesday. Another system passes by to the south on Wednesday, close enough for some clouds, but most of the precipitation with the system likely stays south of New England, though we could see a rain or snow shower reach the South Coast. By Thursday, we’ll start to turn milder once again as high pressure slides offshore, setting up the end of the week and the weekend.

Another mild day is expected across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

On Friday, low pressure will start to head up the Ohio Valley, crossing the Northeast on Saturday as it intensifies. We should be breezy and mild ahead of it, with rain likely Friday night into Saturday. Some of the models show the potential for very strong winds and potentially some heavy rain, but it’s still 5-6 days away, so for now it’s just potential. The system drags a cold front through later on Saturday, which may allow the rain to end as snow across the region, then windy and colder weather settles in for Sunday.

Most of the models show a rather potent storm system moving into the Northeast Saturday morning. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Cloudy and mild with periods of rain and showers during the afternoon. High 53-60, except 45-52 across southern New Hampshire.

Monday night: Rain during the evening, possibly a rumble of thunder, some clearing after midnight, breezy. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 39-46.

Tuesday night: Clear during the evening, clouds start to move in late at night. Low 20-27.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds, just a slight chance for a rain or snow shower along the South Coast and Cape Cod. High 39-46.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 46-53.

Friday: Morning sun, clouds move in during the afternoon, showers develop late at night. High 47-54.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly mixing with wet snow before ending at night. High 53-60.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds., breezy, and colder. High 30-37.

Weekly Outlook: February 21-27, 2022

We’ve got a little bit of everything coming this week, unseasonably warm air (again), a snowstorm (again), some rain (again).

The week starts off with high pressure sliding offshore, allowing mild weather to return to the region today, with high temperatures likely topping 50 in many areas. Clouds start to stream in by late in the day though as low pressure heads toward the region. That low pressure system will pass north and west of the area later Tuesday, with gusty southwest winds bringing in very warm conditions in for Tuesday into Wednesday, with many places possibly topping 60 degrees on Wednesday. There are some indications that the warm air may struggle to move into southern and central New Hampshire on Tuesday, possibly holding off until Tuesday night, which may allow for a little freezing rain Tuesday evening. With the warm air comes some rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night, into early Wednesday morning. The rain ends when a strong cold front moves through, with skies clearing in the afternoon. High pressure builds in for Thursday with dry and cold conditions.

Wednesday could be a very mild day across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell

Another storm system moves into the Ohio Valley before redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline for Thursday night and Friday. There are still plenty of variables to be determined, but with colder air in place, we’ll likely see some snow to start. How much snow, and whether it changes over to sleet, freezing rain, and/or rain are questions that we cannot answer yet, but there is the chance for several inches of snow for at least part of the region. High pressure builds back in next weekend with dry and chilly conditions.

Thursday is looking wintry for at least part of the region for now. Images provided by Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Sunshine filtered through some high clouds at times. High 47-54.

Monday night: Increasing clouds. Low 26-33.

Tuesday: Some sunny breaks early, otherwise mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with showers developing in the afternoon. High 47-54, except possibly cooler across central and southern New Hampshire.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and windy with rain likely, possibly some freezing rain in parts of central or even southern New Hampshire for a while during the evening. Temperatures holding steady or rising overnight.

Wednesday: Lingering showers end early, clearing in the afternoon, breezy, and warm. High 58-65.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and much colder, snow develops at night. High 31-38.

Friday: Breezy with snow likely, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain, ending in the evening. High 30-37.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cold. High 25-32.

Sunday: Sunshine gives way to afternoon clouds. High 31-38.

Weekly Outlook: February 14-20, 2022

We’ve got quite the week coming up with everything from some snow and bitterly cold temperatures to heavy rain and possibly more record highs by the end of the week.

Snow showers will come to an end this morning, then skies will start to clear out this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in. Despite the developing sunshine, temperatures will only be in the 20s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-February. As skies become clear tonight and winds diminish, combined with the fresh snowcover, we’ll have some radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely drop into the single numbers, with some sub-zero readings possible. Tuesday remains chilly, but not quite as cold as today as the high pressure area continues to build in. By Wednesday, that high shifts offshore, and a significant temperature moderation develops. The milder air will be accompanied by clouds though as a storm system begins to move toward the region.

Tuesday morning looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

By Thursday, that system draws nearer, with gusty southwest winds sending temperatures well into the 50s and possibly 60s, with more record highs possible. While temperatures will be mild during the day, it looks like the warmest temperatures will be at night. We could be near or above 60 degrees at midnight Thursday night across the region. We’ll also have some heavy rain as the system gets closer, which combined with the mild weather, will help melt much of the snow that remains on the ground. A widespread soaking rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals of more than an inch possible. We wouldn’t even be surprised if there’s a rumble of thunder. This storm will likely produce some severe weather across the South, and while that’s not likely here, a few thunderstorms are possible. Friday likely starts off warm and wet with temperatures still in the 50s at daybreak, but as a strong cold front comes through during the morning, the rain will end, and temperatures will drop during the day. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with dry and seasonably cool conditions for Saturday, but we may start to turn milder again on Sunday.

Some record highs are possible on Thursday across the Northeast. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Monday: Snow showers ending in the morning, skies start to clear out by late in the day, breezy. High 18-25.

Monday night: Becoming mostly clear. Low -2 to +5.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 23-30.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 6-13.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, clouds start to stream in during the afternoon, becoming breezy and milder. High 38-45.

Thursday: Plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks, especially in the morning, showers developing in the afternoon, becoming windy. Wind-swept rain likely at night, possibly some thunder as well. High 56-63. The warmest temperatures are likely at night.

Friday: Windy with rain ending in the morning, clearing during the afternoon. High 47-54 at daybreak, temperatures drop during the day.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 34-41.

Sunday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 35-42.

Weekly Outlook: February 7-13, 2022

Much of the upcoming week will be dry and mild, but there are some exceptions.

A weak low pressure system will pass south and east of New England later today and tonight. It will spread some light rain into the area, though temperatures will be marginally cold enough for some light snow across the interior, mainly north and west of I-495. Rain ends late tonight, followed by gradual clearing on Tuesday. After that, we’ll have generally dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week, though some disturbances will spread in some clouds and possibly a few showers at times. We may turn colder again next weekend, but there are no big storms in sight.

Any snow today and tonight will be across the interior. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Monday: Cloudy with showers developing, mixed with snow across the interior. High 35-42.

Monday night: Cloudy with rain or snow showers gradually ending. Low 29-36.

Tuesday: Any lingering showers end early, skies start to clear out late in the day. High 38-45.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 17-24.

Wednesday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 35-42.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, slight chance for a shower. High 42-49.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 37-44.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 42-49.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, much cooler. High 28-35.

Weekend Outlook: February 4-7, 2022

It’s mild today, but a messy Friday is on the way.

A strong cold is making its way toward the region this afternoon. We’ll have some rain ahead of it tonight, and the rain may be quite heavy. The combination of rain and mild temperatures will help to melt a lot of the snow that remains from last weekend’s blizzard. The front moves through this evening, and colder air will slowly make its way into the region early on Friday, first at the surface, then aloft. As temperatures drop, the rain will change to freezing rain and then sleet from north to south. With the roads already wet from the rain and temperatures dropping, a flash freeze is likely, and it will unfortunately be timed for the morning commute. If you’re going to be out in the morning, use plenty of caution, as untreated surfaces will become very icy quickly.

Much of the region will receive 1.5-2.0 inches of rain tonight and Friday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com

Temperatures will continue to drop during the day, with the freezing rain and sleet likely ending as some wet snow, mainly north of the Mass Pike. Everything winds down in the evening, then skies gradually clear out at night as high pressure builds in. This sets up a sunny but cold Saturday across the region. The high slides off to the east for Sunday and Monday, keeping us dry, but allowing temperatures to begin to moderate once again.

Saturday night looks quite chilly across the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Thursday night: Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to freezing rain and sleet late at night, mainly across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Low 26-33 north of the Mass Pike, 34-44 south of the Pike.

Friday: Rain and freezing rain changing to sleet, and eventually some wet snow north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures dropping during the day.

Friday night: Wintry mix ending, some clearing late at night. Low 12-19.

Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. High 19-26.

Saturday night: Clear and cold. Low -7 to 0 north and west of Boston, 1-8 south of Boston.

Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 24-31.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 9-16.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 34-41.

Weekly Outlook: January 31 – February 6, 2022

After a snowy weekend, quiet weather will settle in for a few days.

The week starts off on a rather chilly note with high pressure in control, but as it slides off to the east, temperatures will moderate for the next few days. By Wednesday, many locations could top 40 degrees. This will help to melt some of the mounds of snow across the region, but remember, with temperatures dropping below freezing at night, anything that melts will ice back up.

Wednesday could be relatively mild by early February standards. Image provided by WeatherBell.

The next storm system approaches on Thursday, and it looks a bit complicated. A cold front will bring colder air back into the region and a wave of low pressure will ride along it, possibly passing south of the region. With warmer air in place to start, we will likely see precipitation start as rain, but a change to sleet and/or freezing rain is possible, especially across the interior during Thursday night and Friday. We could see a change to snow before everything winds down Friday afternoon. We’ll obviously have a better handle on this storm later this week. High pressure then builds in for the weekend with cold and dry conditions.

Monday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 24-31.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 4-11.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 30-37.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 21-28.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 38-45.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain developing, changing to sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior. High 39-46.

Friday: Wintry mix possibly ending as snow. Temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s during the day.

Saturday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 18-25.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 25-32.

Weekly Outlook: January 24-30, 2022

Another chilly week is expected, but trouble could be lurking next weekend.

A dry, but chilly day is expected today as high pressure builds in, but it won’t stay that way for long. An Alberta Clipper will be heading this way, sending clouds back in late today, with some snow showers late tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures may be marginally warm enough to change the snow to rain across Cape Cod and the South Coast. Any accumulation should be an inch or less. Once that system moves by, high pressure builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday with much colder weather once again. Another weak system may bring in a few snow showers on Friday as temperatures moderate a bit. This brings us to next weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the upcoming week, but the coldest air will stay to our north and west. Image provided by WeatherBell.

For several days now, the models have been indicating the potential for a significant storm system somewhere near the East Coast around Saturday, January 29. We’ve mentioned more times than we can count that the models aren’t trustworthy beyond about 2 or 3 days right now, but they have all had the same signal for quite some time, which gives us increased confidence that there will be some sort of storm, and it will probably be potent. However, models are showing little consistency beyond that in terms of how strong it will be, where it will track, what areas (if any) it might impact, and what impacts (if any) that it will have. At this point, everything is on the table, from a swing and a miss with the storm heading out to sea, to an inland runner, where we end up on the warm side with heavy rain and mild temperatures, to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain with the storm tracking right over us, to a full-fledged blizzard with the classic track right up the coast. Depending on which model you look at, and which run of that model, they have all indicated any and all of these scenarios at one point over the past several days. So, at this point, it is impossible to make a forecast, because frankly, we just don’t know, and probably won’t have a better idea of what to expect until at least mid-week. By the time we issue our Weekend Outlook on Thursday, we *should* have a decent idea of what will happen, but even that isn’t definite. So, stay tuned….

This is the last 5-days worth of forecasts from the GFS model that are all valid for this Saturday afternoon. Images provided by Tropical Tidbits.

Monday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 27-34.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with some snow showers possible. Low 18-25, temperatures may start to rise a bit after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with morning snow showers, possibly mixed with rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod, some afternoon sunny breaks develop. High 36-43.

Tuesday night: Becoming clear. Low 12-19.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 19-26.

Thursday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 22-29.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. High 32-39.

Saturday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 26-33.

Sunday: Partly to mostly _____ with a chance of _____. High 24-31.