A rather potent storm system will bring a variety of weather to the eastern third of the United States over the next few days.

Low pressure developed along a frontal system in southern Texas on Saturday, and it will slowly strengthen as it moves northeastward tonight and Sunday. As it strengthens, it will draw moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, while colder air continues to move southward behind the storm system. This will set the stage for a couple of rather active days across the Eastern third of the nation, with several different types of weather likely.

The biggest threat initially will be severe weather. As the warm, moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico and clashes with the colder air moving in behind the storm, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. A few storms are possible overnight in parts of Texas and Louisiana, but the threat will shift into the Gulf Coast on Sunday, parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas Sunday night, and parts of the East Coast from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. Some of the stronger storms may produce heavy downpours, damaging winds, and possibly some tornadoes.

While severe weather is not common at this time of year, it is certainly not unheard of. In fact, Saturday marked the 32nd anniversary of one of the strongest tornadoes on record to hit North Carolina. On November 28, 1988, an F4 tornado tore an 84-mile path of damage across parts of North Carolina, including the city of Raleigh.

#OTD the 1988 Raleigh EF4 tornado tore an 84 mile path of destruction through central NC. While it's getting colder, severe weather is still possible and worth keeping in mind with a storm system moving in Sun night into Mon. Have memories of this event? Share them below! #NCwx pic.twitter.com/uoapXwtaTp

— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) November 28, 2020

As the storm moves up the Appalachians it will bring unseasonably mild air to the East Coast, but also some heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday. By Monday, 60-degree readings will be possible as far north as southern New England, with some 70s into the Carolinas and parts of southern Virginia. The mild air may linger into Tuesday across parts of New England as well. While these temperatures are 10-20 degrees above normal, they will likely fall short of the record highs in most locations.

The warm weather will be transported in by strong southerly winds ahead of the system. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph will be common up and down the East Coast. Many places could see wind gusts of 50-60 mph or stronger, which could lead to power outages as trees and wires come down.

In addition to the warm weather, heavy rain is likely for much of the East. The warm, moist air being drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico will be deposited up and down the East Coast later Sunday into Monday, and early Tuesday for parts of New England. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common, with some places possibly picking up 3 inches or more, especially in parts of eastern New England. While this will help put another significant dent in the long term drought that the region is experiencing, too much rain at once will likely lead to flooding in some areas.

While all of this is going on ahead of the storm, a different scenario will be evolving on the storm’s back side. Colder air flowing southward from Canada will clash with the warm air, resulting in snow across parts of the Great Lakes and the Appalachians. The snow will be accompanied by gusty winds, lowering visibility in many locations, resulting in very hazardous driving conditions. While the snow won’t be exceptionally heavy, many places could receive upwards of 4-8 inches by the time everything winds down. Across the higher elevations of the Appalachians, even into the southern Appalachians, some heavier amounts are possible as well. As the systems gets caught under an upper-level low pressure system in southeastern Canada, it may produce some lake-effect snow into mid-week downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Once this system pulls away, things will quiet down across the East for a few days, but there are signs that another system could impact parts of the East next weekend.

A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.

Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.

By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.

To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.

Here in the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so we need all the rain we can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.

As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.

Conditions should improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.