The weekend is going to start off unsettled, but the rest of it looks terrific.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday, especially north and west of Boston. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Friday, with southwest winds bringing warm and increasingly humid air into the region. A cold front will approach from the west during the day on Friday. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead the front. Conditions should be ripe for some of these storms to become strong to severe during the afternoon and evening, especially north and west of Boston. Some of the storms produce hail and strong winds, with heavy downpours also likely. As the storms move into the Boston area and southeastern Massachusetts they should start to weaken, but some gusty winds and heavy downpours are still possible. The front moves offshore at night, bringing an end to the showers and storms, though they may not end completely until close to daybreak across parts of the Cape and possibly southeastern Massachusetts. High pressure then builds back in for Saturday and Sunday with cooler and drier air. By Monday, the high will move off to the east and warmer and more humid air will start to move back in. This will be the beginning of what looks like a hot week , but we’ll get into more details on that in our Weekly Outlook Sunday night.
The latter half of next week is looking hot around here. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Clear skies, some clouds may start to drift in late at night. Low 60-67.
Friday: Morning sun, then clouds move in with shower and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, some could be strong to severe, becoming breezy in the afternoon. High 80-87, little cooler across Cape Cod.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast. Low 57-64.
Saturday: Becoming mostly sunny and less humid. High 71-78, coolest near the coast.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.
Sunday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 72-79, a little cooler at the coast with afternoon seabreezes.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low 53-60.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84, a little cooler across the South Coast and Cape Cod.
We’ve got a little bit of everything this weekend – severe weather, heat and humidity, and a return to cooler and drier weather. Let’s get right to the details.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8pm. Image provided by NOAA.
We’re starting things off on an active note, with a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of the region, except Cape Cod and the Islands, until 8pm. A vigorous upper-level disturbance is moving toward the region, and it has already triggered some showers and thunderstorms. They’ll become a bit more widespread as the afternoon wears on while moving generally eastward towards the area. Some of the stronger storms may produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding, and possibly a tornado or two. With the potential for some heavy rain, a Flood Watch is also in effect for a good portion of the area. Activity should wind down and move offshore before midnight, leaving us with a warm and muggy night, with many spots not dropping below 70. Friday looks to be a very warm to hot day with moderate to high humidity for much of the region. High temperatures will likely approach or exceed 90 in many locations, except for the immediate South Coast. The combination of heat and humidity will send the heat index well into the 90s, so a Heat Advisory has also been issued. Friday night will be another warm and muggy night, leading into Saturday, which is the transition day.
The heat index will be in the middle to upper 90s in many areas Friday afternoon. Images provided by WeatherBell.
Saturday will start off with some sunshine, along with very warm and humid conditions, but a strong cold front will be moving toward the region. Depending on how quickly the clouds move in, some spots could reach 90 by midday, especially south of the Mass Pike. We’ll have some showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front by early afternoon, and again, the threat is there for some severe weather, as well as heavy rainfall, so Flood Watches will likely be issued once again. Showers and storms end with the passage of the cold front at night, then a much cooler and drier airmass settles in for Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, and temperatures will only be in the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs both days. With night time lows dropping into the 50s in many spots Sunday night, you’ll be able to turn off the air conditioner and open the windows in your dwelling. This airmass may hang around for a good chunk of the week, with one model showing the potential for a few spots to drop into the upper 40s Wednesday morning. We’ll have a closer look at that in our Weekly Outlook early Monday morning.
Lows could drop into the 50s in many locations Monday morning. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe during the evening, ending by midnight, then skies clear out. Low 67-74.
Friday: Sunny, hot, and fairly humid. High 86-93.
Friday night: Clear skies, clouds start to filter in late at night. Low 68-75.
Saturday: Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing by early afternoon, some could be strong. High 84-91.
Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms end during the evening, some clearing late at night. Low 60-67.
The final week of July will not be as hot as last week was, but there will still be episodes of humidity to deal with.
[New Records] Several high temperature records were broken today including Boston and Providence, while Hartford tied its record.🥵 pic.twitter.com/LbH7M9BIMa
After Sunday’s record-breaking heat, which topped 100 in places, today won’t be as hot with a cold front approaching the region. We’ll have plenty of cloud cover with some showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front. Some of the storms could be quite potent, with strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours. There is even a risk for a tornado. While the threat of severe weather exists from Maine to Virginia, around here, we think it’ll be mostly north and west of I-95 where the strongest storms occur, as usual. We could still see some strong storms in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, so don’t let your guard down if you’ll be in that neck of the woods during the afternoon.
Severe weather looks like a decent bet across the Northeast today. Image provided Pivotal Weather.
While temperatures will be “cooler” today they’ll still be in the 80s, possibly near 90 in spots if we can get enough sunshine in the morning. Of course, if we get some sunshine, that will also help to fuel some stronger thunderstorms. It’ll also be a much more humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s, so it’ll feel nearly as hot as Sunday was. As a result, the National Weather Service extended the Heat Advisory for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island until 5pm today.
It will feel like it is near or over 100 degrees early this afternoon across the region. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
The cold front moves offshore tonight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions. Temperatures should still reach the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 50s and lower 60s. The next system approaches on Thursday, so we’ll turn warmer and more humid once again, with some showers and thunderstorms likely late Thursday into Friday. At this time, it doesn’t look like the threat for severe weather is as significant as today, but it’s still a few days away, so we’ll keep monitoring things. High pressure builds back in next weekend with seasonably warm and drier weather once again.
Tuesday will be much more comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Monday: Some morning sun, then becoming cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which could be strong to severe. High 85-92.
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, then skies gradually clear out. Low 59-66.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, not as humid. High 80-87.
Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 58-65.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 83-90.
Thursday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 82-89.
Saturday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 81-88.
We’re starting the week with a bang, as a strong cold front may produce some severe weather today.
Once the fog near the South Coast burns off this morning, we’ll have partly sunny skies today and it will be warm and somewhat humid. However, a strong cold front will move across the region later today, bringing an end to the humidity and mild temperatures. Ahead of that front, showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into part of the evening. The bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, but some of the storms that make it this far east could still produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
The farther west you go, the more likely severe weather becomes today. image provided by NOAA.
Behind the front, an upper-level low pressure system will cross the Northeast on Tuesday, generating some clouds and possibly a stray shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. By Friday, a warm front will move across the region, allowing warmer and more humid air to move back into the region, Saturday looks like it will be the warmest day, with temperatures possibly topping 90 in much of the region. The latter half of the weekend is a bit trickier. A cold front will move through, with some showers and thunderstorms likely, but the timing of the front is still in question, which has significant implications for the temperature forecast on Sunday. If the front moves through Sunday afternoon, as some models are showing, then another hot day is likely, but if it moves through Saturday night, as other models are indicating, then we’ll clear out after some morning showers, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. We’re going to play the middle ground for now, and hope for some clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.
Sunday could be another hot day, but how hot? Images provided b Pivotal Weather.
Monday: Morning fog along the South Coast, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.
Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 51-58.
Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a stray shower, breezy. High 68-75.
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 45-52.
Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 65-72.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-723.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.
A rather potent storm system will bring a variety of weather to the eastern third of the United States over the next few days.
Low pressure is developing along a frontal system in southern Texas this evening. Image provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
Low pressure developed along a frontal system in southern Texas on Saturday, and it will slowly strengthen as it moves northeastward tonight and Sunday. As it strengthens, it will draw moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, while colder air continues to move southward behind the storm system. This will set the stage for a couple of rather active days across the Eastern third of the nation, with several different types of weather likely.
The GFS model shows the progression of the storm over the next few days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
The biggest threat initially will be severe weather. As the warm, moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico and clashes with the colder air moving in behind the storm, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. A few storms are possible overnight in parts of Texas and Louisiana, but the threat will shift into the Gulf Coast on Sunday, parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas Sunday night, and parts of the East Coast from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. Some of the stronger storms may produce heavy downpours, damaging winds, and possibly some tornadoes.
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas on Sunday. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
While severe weather is not common at this time of year, it is certainly not unheard of. In fact, Saturday marked the 32nd anniversary of one of the strongest tornadoes on record to hit North Carolina. On November 28, 1988, an F4 tornado tore an 84-mile path of damage across parts of North Carolina, including the city of Raleigh.
#OTD the 1988 Raleigh EF4 tornado tore an 84 mile path of destruction through central NC. While it's getting colder, severe weather is still possible and worth keeping in mind with a storm system moving in Sun night into Mon. Have memories of this event? Share them below! #NCwxpic.twitter.com/uoapXwtaTp
As the storm moves up the Appalachians it will bring unseasonably mild air to the East Coast, but also some heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday. By Monday, 60-degree readings will be possible as far north as southern New England, with some 70s into the Carolinas and parts of southern Virginia. The mild air may linger into Tuesday across parts of New England as well. While these temperatures are 10-20 degrees above normal, they will likely fall short of the record highs in most locations.
Monday will be a warm day by November standards up and down the East Coast. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The warm weather will be transported in by strong southerly winds ahead of the system. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph will be common up and down the East Coast. Many places could see wind gusts of 50-60 mph or stronger, which could lead to power outages as trees and wires come down.
Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible across the East Coast ahead of the storm. Image provided by WeatherBell.
In addition to the warm weather, heavy rain is likely for much of the East. The warm, moist air being drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico will be deposited up and down the East Coast later Sunday into Monday, and early Tuesday for parts of New England. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common, with some places possibly picking up 3 inches or more, especially in parts of eastern New England. While this will help put another significant dent in the long term drought that the region is experiencing, too much rain at once will likely lead to flooding in some areas.
Heavy rain is likely across the East Coast Monday into Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
While all of this is going on ahead of the storm, a different scenario will be evolving on the storm’s back side. Colder air flowing southward from Canada will clash with the warm air, resulting in snow across parts of the Great Lakes and the Appalachians. The snow will be accompanied by gusty winds, lowering visibility in many locations, resulting in very hazardous driving conditions. While the snow won’t be exceptionally heavy, many places could receive upwards of 4-8 inches by the time everything winds down. Across the higher elevations of the Appalachians, even into the southern Appalachians, some heavier amounts are possible as well. As the systems gets caught under an upper-level low pressure system in southeastern Canada, it may produce some lake-effect snow into mid-week downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Accumulating snow is expected behind the storm system. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
Once this system pulls away, things will quiet down across the East for a few days, but there are signs that another system could impact parts of the East next weekend.
A warm and humid airmass has been in place for a couple of days, but a cold front is approaching the region. That front may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of the region until 8pm. Image provided by NOAA.
After some showers and thunderstorms moved across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island early this morning, some sunshine has developed, allowing temperatures to quickly warm into the 80s away from the south coast by midday. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, making for a rather muggy afternoon.
Temperatures are already well into the 80s away from the South Coast at midday. Image provided by NOAA.
A cold front extends from Lake Champlain into central New York at midday. Ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly. Some strong to severe storms have been moving across portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine already, and these will become more numerous as the afternoon wears on. With an unstable airmass already in place, many of the thunderstorms will become strong to severe, producing strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours.
Forecast through early Sunday morning from the HRRR model. Loop provided by WeatherBell.
The most likely time for severe weather across our area looks to be in the 2-6pm time frame. This is when we’ll have the best chance for severe weather. The front itself may not move through until 7-9pm, and there may be some additional showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front. Some of these storms may produce downpours and gusty winds, but the threat of severe weather should be significantly diminished by then. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front tonight, but Sunday will probably still feature plenty of clouds thanks to an east to northeast wind off the ocean. Some drizzle and a few showers are also possible, but the day won’t be a washout. Temperatures will be much cooler though, staying in the 60s for much of the region. We should start to warm up again on Monday with sunshine returning.
A rather strong storm system will wreak all sorts of havoc on a large swath of the nation through the weekend and into Monday.
Low pressure will move out of the Plains states today and into the Great Lakes later Sunday into early Monday. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Low pressure is moving into the Plains states today, producing some strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Southern Plains. That’s just the start of what will be a busy few days. As the storm moves into the southern Plains tonight, showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will spread from Texas into the Mississippi Valley. To the north, snow is expected across the Central Plains. Some locations could pick up 6-12 inches this weekend in a swath from Nebraska and South Dakota into parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
A severe weather outbreak is possible across a large portion of the South on Easter Sunday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
Easter Sunday is the day that will likely grab most of the headlines away from the pandemic for a day. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley, warm, moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and as this clashes with the cold air advancing southward behind the storm, the ingredients will be in place for a severe weather outbreak. Severe weather may be ongoing as Easter Sunday dawns across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but activity will spread eastward during the day across the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and likely numerous tornadoes. The risk will continue well into the overnight hours, especially in Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western portions of the Carolinas.
The severe weather threat shifts to the East Coast on Monday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
By Monday, the system will move into Ontario, dragging a strong cold front across the Eastern United States. Warm, humid air will continue to flow northward ahead of this front, triggering more showers and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon from northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and some tornadoes, especially from the Carolinas to the Delmarva Peninsula.
Heavy snow is likely from Wisconsin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Sunday into early Tuesday. Image provided by Weathermodels.com
To the north, heavy snow will continue behind the storm from northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Ontario. Snowfall totals of 10-20 inches or more are likely. Winds gusting to 40-50 mph will create significant blowing and drifting of the snow, with blizzard conditions at times.
Precipitation has been below normal across much of the Northeast during the first 100 days of 2020. Image provided by the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
Here in the Northeast, the big story will be the wind. Rain will be a secondary concern, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches possible across much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms may produce heavier downpours, especially in western New England and eastern New York, but flooding isn’t much of a concern. Precipitation has been below normal across much of the area through a good chunk of the winter and early Spring, so we need all the rain we can get, though maybe not quite this much at once. There will be some ponding on the roadways, and some of the smaller streams may overflow, but widespread flooding shouldn’t be a problem. The wind, on the other hand, will be a major problem.
High Wind Watches are in effect for parts of the Northeast, and these will likely expand over the next 12-24 hours. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
As the system gets cranked up in Ontario, strong southerly winds will develop across the region. These will bring milder air into the region. We won’t quite reach the 90s that will set records across Florida on Monday, but 50s and 60s are still a bit above normal for mid-April around here. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher are expected as well. This will likely result in power outages as they take down trees that are starting to show their leaves, along with power lines. Winds should start to diminish during the evening as a cold front moves through, bringing an end to the rain and shifting the winds into the west.
Wind gusts of 60-70 mph or higher could be widespread Monday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Conditions should improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with some sunshine developing, but it will still be breezy as the now-powerful storm moves into northern Quebec, where heavy snow will likely continue.
An approaching storm system will make for quite the interesting Thursday across New England.
The low pressure system that will generate severe weather across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys this afternoon and evening will head northeastward tonight, and pass right over New England on Thursday. It will produce a variety of weather across our six-state region, depending on where you’re located. Across southern New England, we’ll have heavy rain, possibly some thunderstorms, and strong winds. Across northern New England, this could turn out to be quite a snowstorm.
The High-Resolution NAM model shows the progression of the system over the next couple of days. Loop provided by Tropical Tidbits.
Starting with southern New England, we’ll see showes developing during the morning, becoming a steady rain during the afternoon. With warmer air moving at the surface, thunderstorms may develop as the system moves in. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds, and hail, as there will be plenty of cold air aloft with an upper-level low pressure system moving into the Northeast.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Southern New England under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
The rain and thunderstorms should come to an end by late afternoon, but that’s only half of the threat. A cold front will cross the region, with strong winds likely behind it. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts of 40-50 mph or higher are likely. These winds may diminish a bit overnight, but will likely pick back up on Friday as the storm continues to intensify across eastern Canada. That upper-level low pressure area will also be overhead, so we’ll have plenty of clouds and a few showers popping up. With the cold air aloft, some of those showers could produce some small hail or graupel.
Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph in places Friday afternoon. Image provided by WeatherBell.
While we are dealing with strong winds and thunderstorms, it’ll be a completely different story across northern New England. Temperatures will be much cooler across Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, with much of the precipitation falling in the form of snow, especially in the mountains. Some of the snow will be quite heavy, with a foot or more possible, especially across Maine and northern New Hampshire. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for parts of the region. The snow will also be accompanied by strong winds, gusts to 40 mph or more, which may create blizzard conditions at times. There’s already little travel going on due to the pandemic, but there should be even less over the next few days.
Parts of northern New England, especially Maine and northern New Hampshire, could pick up more than a foot of snow Thursday into Friday. Image provided by WeatherBell.
The snow should wind down on Friday, but with the upper-level low in place, snow showers may continue. Some of those snow showers may spread into the Berkshires as colder air works its way in. Some wet snow is even possible into the Worcester Hills and Monadnocks.
High pressure will build in for the weekend with drier weather, but our next system looks to move in on Monday. That one looks like a rain-maker right now, and it might produce a decent amount of rainfall. We’ve been a bit dry this winter, so we need all the rain we can get right now to avoid slipping into a drought.
The warm and humid conditions we’ve had for much of the region over the past several days are going to continue today, but changes are coming, and the change may not be that quiet.
There is a slight risk of severe weather across much of the region today. Image provided by the Storm Prediction Center.
A weak cold front is going to approach the region today. The front may never make it across the area before it washes out, but it will help to trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the region today. Right now, it looks like the most likely area for strong storms is from southeastern Connecticut into Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. The most likely time for the storms in this area is from 11am to 3pm,, though some storms may continue through about 7pm.
The high-resolution NAM model shows the progression of storms across the region this morning and afternoon. Loop provided by weathermodels.com
The ingredients appear to be in place for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the region. There are several different indices that meteorologists look at to help determine the risk for severe weather. We won’t confuse you with most of them, nor will we bore you with how they are derived. Most of these indices are indicating that the risk for today is real and significant. One of the parameters that we will share you you is called CAPE. That stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It’s a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is, and how much “juice” is available to fuel the storms. It’s measured in joules per kilogram, and a value over 1000 means that the atmosphere is moderately unstable. If the values reach 2500 there is strong instability, and values over 4000 are indicative of extreme instability. as you can see in the map below, values of 2000-4000 (or more) are expected early this afternoon.
The High Resolution NAM model is showing CAPE values of 2000-4000 early this afternoon across New England. Image provided by WeatherBell.
Any storms that do develop this afternoon will likely contain heavy downpours, strong winds, and hail. There is even a risk for an isolated tornado. With the heavy rain, flash flooding is also a risk. So, if you’ve got plans that involve outdoor activities, make sure you keep an eye to the sky.
So, things will be better on Sunday, right? Not so fast my friends. We’ll have an upper-level low pressure area dropping southward from Canada. So, not only will it be cooler, we’ll have some more showers and thunderstorms developing. We don’t expect most of these to become severe, but with cold air aloft, we’ll have some of these storms produce small hail across the area. This is similar to what happened last Saturday, when another upper-level low moved through. There were numerous reports of small hail across the region. So again, if you’ve got outdoor plans on Sunday, keep an eye to the sky.
For the third year in a row, the “M” storm in the Atlantic is prepared to wreak havoc on a populated area, but Michael isn’t the only headline maker in the weather at the moment.
Hurricane Michael isn’t the only storm in the news, but it is the biggest threat at the moment. As of early Tuesday afternoon, Michael was centered about 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving toward the north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, making Michael a Category 2 Hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches surrounding the Hurricane Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida into South Carolina.
Michael is going to pack quite a wallop when it slams into the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, likely as a Category 3 storm. Strong winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge, and some tornadoes are all possible with this storm. Unlike Florence, which hung around the Carolinas for days and dumped incredible amounts of rainfall on the region, Michael is expected to keep moving at a steady pace, emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches are still expected in parts of the region, which will produce flooding in some areas, especially in Carolinas, where many areas are still recovering from Florence. Right along the coast, a storm surge of 6-12 feet is possible, especially in the Big Bend area of Florida. Fortunately, this area is not heavily populated, but for the residents that do live in this area, storm surge flooding is a significant threat.
Once it moves back into the Atlantic early Friday, it should pass well south of our area. The northern edge of the rainfall from the system could reach the South Coast, but the bulk of the heavy rain should remain well to the south.
This is the 3rd year in a row that the “M” storm is expected to result in significant damage to a populated area. In 2014, Category 5 Hurricane Matthew left a path of death and destruction across parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually parts of the southeastern United States. Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. While Michael is not expected to become a Category 5 storm, it is still expected to result in significant damage to parts of Florida and the Southeast.
Tropical Storm Leslie has been around for near 2 weeks and still looks rather healthy. Loop provided by NOAA.
Meanwhile, in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Leslie refuses to go away. As of midday Tuesday, Leslie was centered a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores, moving toward the south-southeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. The forecast for Leslie calls for a turn more toward the east over the next few days while it strengthens back into a hurricane. Leslie is expected to remain over open waters for the next few days, and could become an extratropical storm this weekend while continuing on a general easterly track.
Nadine is a fish storm. Nothing to worry about here. Image provided by Tropical Tidbits.
To the south, Tropical Storm Nadine as formed nearly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Nadine has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Nadine is expected to remain fairly weak over open waters for the next several days while turning more toward the northwest. As it moves over colder water late this week and this weekend, it should weaken and eventually dissipate.
What month is it again? 70s and 80s early in the afternoon on October 9th? Image provided by WeatherBell.
Back in the United States, unseasonably warm conditions remain in place across much of the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, which is 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A strong frontal system is located in the Plains states this afternoon, separating the warm air in the East, from much cooler weather behind it in the Plains and the Rockies. Right along this front, which hasn’t moved much for the past 24 hours, severe weather and heavy rainfall are common this afternoon.
That’s snow in Colorado, and heavy rain along with severe weather from Texas into the Central Plains this afternoon. Loop provided by WeatherTAP.
Several tornadoes have been reported already today, including a few in the Oklahoma City area, and more are expected later today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is also expected from Texas into the Central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and locally heavier may produce flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.
Several inches of snow is expected form the Plains into the Upper Midwest over the next few days. Image provided by Pivotal Weather.
On the other side of the front, where much cooler weather is in place, rain is expected to change over to snow as low pressure rides along the front and into the Midwest. Winter weather advisories have already been posted for parts of the region. Snow is already falling in parts of Colorado this afternoon, and several inches may fall over the next 36-48 hours from western portions of Kansas and Nebraska into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.
Some heavy rain is possible across our area on Thursday as a strong cold front approaches the region. Image provided by WeatherBell.
As the system moves eastward, it will spread some heavy rain and thunderstorms into our area on Thursday. We’re not expecting any severe weather, but some heavy downpours are possible, especially from western Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Some localized flooding may result. Once this front pushes offshore, much cooler weather will settle in for the Friday and the weekend.
Storm HQ 