A warm and humid airmass has been in place for a couple of days, but a cold front is approaching the region. That front may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon.
After some showers and thunderstorms moved across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island early this morning, some sunshine has developed, allowing temperatures to quickly warm into the 80s away from the south coast by midday. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, making for a rather muggy afternoon.
A cold front extends from Lake Champlain into central New York at midday. Ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly. Some strong to severe storms have been moving across portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine already, and these will become more numerous as the afternoon wears on. With an unstable airmass already in place, many of the thunderstorms will become strong to severe, producing strong winds, hail, and heavy downpours.
The most likely time for severe weather across our area looks to be in the 2-6pm time frame. This is when we’ll have the best chance for severe weather. The front itself may not move through until 7-9pm, and there may be some additional showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front. Some of these storms may produce downpours and gusty winds, but the threat of severe weather should be significantly diminished by then. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front tonight, but Sunday will probably still feature plenty of clouds thanks to an east to northeast wind off the ocean. Some drizzle and a few showers are also possible, but the day won’t be a washout. Temperatures will be much cooler though, staying in the 60s for much of the region. We should start to warm up again on Monday with sunshine returning.