Weekly Outlook: May 16-22, 2022

We’re starting the week with a bang, as a strong cold front may produce some severe weather today.

Once the fog near the South Coast burns off this morning, we’ll have partly sunny skies today and it will be warm and somewhat humid. However, a strong cold front will move across the region later today, bringing an end to the humidity and mild temperatures. Ahead of that front, showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into part of the evening. The bulk of the severe weather should stay to our west, but some of the storms that make it this far east could still produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

The farther west you go, the more likely severe weather becomes today. image provided by NOAA.

Behind the front, an upper-level low pressure system will cross the Northeast on Tuesday, generating some clouds and possibly a stray shower or two. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with dry and seasonably mild conditions. By Friday, a warm front will move across the region, allowing warmer and more humid air to move back into the region, Saturday looks like it will be the warmest day, with temperatures possibly topping 90 in much of the region. The latter half of the weekend is a bit trickier. A cold front will move through, with some showers and thunderstorms likely, but the timing of the front is still in question, which has significant implications for the temperature forecast on Sunday. If the front moves through Sunday afternoon, as some models are showing, then another hot day is likely, but if it moves through Saturday night, as other models are indicating, then we’ll clear out after some morning showers, but temperatures will be significantly cooler. We’re going to play the middle ground for now, and hope for some clarity by the time we get to our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Sunday could be another hot day, but how hot? Images provided b Pivotal Weather.

Monday: Morning fog along the South Coast, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, some of which may contain gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. High 77-84, cooler along the coast.

Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, skies start to clear out after midnight. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, slight chance for a stray shower, breezy. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Low 45-52.

Wednesday: Plenty of sunshine, breezy again. High 65-72.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 66-723.

Friday: Partly sunny. High 75-82, cooler along the coast.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 86-93, cooler along the coast.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

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