The first weekend of meteorological summer has arrived, and although it won’t feel like summer on Friday, the rest of the weekend should. Meanwhile, the first tropical system of the season is expected to impact Florida.
An area of showers will move across the region tonight, ending towards midday Friday. This is good news, because we really need the rain, as drought conditions are developing across the region. Clouds will hang tough for most of the afternoon, keeping temperatures on the cool side for one more day, but some breaks if sunshine may develop in the afternoon. Skies clear out Friday night, but a cold front will move across the region on Saturday. It will generate some additional clouds, but only a sprinkle or two is expected. After that, high pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday with dry and seasonably warm conditions.
Meanwhile, it appears as though the first tropical system of the season is developing in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was centered about 80 miles north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico this evening, moving toward the north at 5 mph. The system still had a broad circulation, and conditions aren’t that favorable for development, but many of the models do insist that it will develop into a tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Alex over the next 12-24 hours. As a result, tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of western Cuba, central and southern Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas. The system should head northeastward, crossing Florida on Saturday. Gusty winds and a minor storm surge will be threats with this system, but the main threat, whether it develops or not, is heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches and heavier are likely across western Cuba, southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas over the next few days, leading to flooding in many areas. Across central Florida, rainfall totals of 2-6 inches will likely produce flooding as well. We’ll likely post an updated blog on just this system on Friday if it does develop.
Thursday night: Cloudy with showers likely. Low 50-57.
Friday: Showers end in the morning, some sunny breaks develop during the afternoon. High 64-71, a little cooler near the coast.
Friday night: Gradual clearing. Low 51-58.
Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds, very slight chance for a sprinkle. High 72-79.
Saturday night: Clear skies. Low 48-55.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 70-77.
Sunday night: Mostly clear. Low 49-56.
Monday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds. High 71-78.