Cooler weather has finally arrived, and it will be here for part of the upcoming week.

High pressure continues to build into the region today with temperatures running a few degrees cooler than we had on Sunday. With an upper-level disturbance still moving through, we’ll see clouds develop, and a few pop-up showers are possible in the afternoon. High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with dry and seasonably cool conditions. By Wednesday, the high moves offshore, and a southwest flow will bring milder air back into the area. Thursday also looks warm, but clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches from the west. That front will move through Thursday night or early Friday with a few showers, but the bigger story is what happens behind the front. Friday’s temperatures will be determined by when the front moves through, but for now at least, it looks mild again, at least to start.

Even cooler air settles into the region next weekend. Temperatures likely won’t get out of the 50s on Sunday, with many places likely dropping into the 30s at night. Before you complain too much, some of the models show the potential for lake-effect snow in parts of western and northern New York next weekend. We’ve also got to keep an eye on a low pressure system that may try and move up the coast on Saturday, but for now at least, it looks like it should stay offshore.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, chance for a pop-up shower or two. High 54-61.

Monday night: Partly cloudy and quite cool. Low 38-45.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds, breezy again. High 56-63.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 44-51.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 65-72.

Thursday: Sunshine gradually fades behind thickening clouds, showers may develop overnight. High 66-73.

Friday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, chance for some showers early. High 63-70.

Saturday: Partly sunny, chance for a shower. High 54-61.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 52-59.

All the signs are there that we’re well into fall – the leaves are changing colors, baseball’s playoffs are in full swing, football is well into the season, hockey starts up this week, basketball next week, pumpkin flavored everything has invaded everywhere, but someone forgot to give Mother Nature the memo, as we’ve got some warm weather on the way for much of the week.

We start the week off with high pressure to the north and low pressure well south of New England. The low may produce a few showers near the South Coast this morning, but high pressure should eventually win out, with some sunshine developing during the afternoon. Even more sunshine and milder temperatures are expected on Tuesday as the high continues to build in. A weak system moves through on Wednesday with little fanfare except for some clouds and just a slight chance for a shower. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday with dry and warm conditions.

Next weekend is where things get a little uncertain. A cold front will be approaching the region, and it’s timing is still a bit of a question mark. Saturday looks quite mild at this point, but as the front draws nearer, some showers and possibly thunderstorms are likely ahead of it. Much of the day should remain dry, with showers holding off until nightfall, but this is far from certain. The front likely moves through at night, with much cooler air settling in on Sunday. However, if the front doesn’t move through until sometime Sunday, as at least one model shows, then Sunday could start off quite warm before temperatures drop during the afternoon. We should have better clarification of the timing of the front for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: A few showers near the South Coast early, otherwise plenty of clouds with some sunny breaks. High 64-71.

Monday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 49-56.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50-57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, slight chance for a shower. High 69-76.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69-76.

Friday: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. High 69-76.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds, showers and possibly some thunderstorms likely at night, breezy. High 68-75.

Sunday: Showers end early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 61-68.

A wet start to the week, then we dry out. Wet weather may return for the end of the week.

A frontal system is stalled out across the region, and waves of low pressure will ride along it, bringing in rain, some of it heavy, Monday and Monday night, with showers tapering off on Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday, with dry and gradually milder weather. Next weekend is a bit uncertain, as high pressure will remain to the north while low pressure tries to move up from the south. We’ll see which feature wins out.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of rain and showers, some of which may be heavy. High 56-63.

Monday night: Cloudy with more rain and showers. Low 51-58.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers. High 58-65.

Tuesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High 63-70.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 68-75.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 66-73.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, cooler. High 61-68.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. High 63-70.

Editorial note: Thursday’s Weekend Outlook is normally published during the mid-to-late afternoon. This week, it will likely not be published until sometime Thursday night, so you’ll probably be able to read it Friday morning.

Baseball’s regular season is in the home stretch, football is well underway, hockey is starting up, and pumpkin everything is showing up everywhere. It’s definitely fall now. Mother Nature is going to get in on the act this week too. Goodbye shorts, hello light jackets or sweatshirts.

The week starts off on a warm note with high pressure still in control, but changes are coming. A cold front dropping southward will produce some showers tonight and Tuesday, with a rumble of thunder possible as well. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions. A wave of low pressure will ride along the front to our south Wednesday night and Thursday, with another period of showers likely. Friday looks like a typical fall day to start October. An upper-level low pressure are will be moving across the region, bringing with it some clouds and possibly a few showers. High pressure should return for the weekend with dry and cool conditions.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 70-77.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Plenty of clouds with showers likely, possibly a rumble of thunder. High 68-75.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, any lingering showers end in the evening. Low 46-53.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 61-68.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some showers possible. High 57-64.

Friday: Early sun, then clouds return, slight chance for an afternoon shower. High 60-67.

Saturday: Plenty of sunshine. High 61-68.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 62-69.

“Summer’s going fast, nights growing colder”

That line from the Rush song “Time Stand Still” is talking about the next couple of days. Summer officially ends with the autumnal equinox at 3:20pm on Wednesday.

We start the week off with high pressure in control, providing us with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. As the high moves offshore on Wednesday, southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air into the region. There may be enough moisture around to trigger a shower or two across the interior, but for the most part, the day will remain dry.

The end of the week is where things get tricky. A slow-moving frontal system will head this way, but the models don’t agree on the timing of the system. One model has the system bring us a rainy day on Thursday, with the showers ending early Friday. A couple of others have just a few showers on Thursday, with the bulk of the rain moving in on Friday and lingering into part of Saturday as the front really slows down. Given the trends recently, we’re going to lean toward the slower timing for now. This will impact Sunday’s forecast as well, as another system will be following, and if the first system takes longer to move out, then then second system will take longer to move in. We should have some more clarity on this for our Weekend Outlook on Thursday.

Monday: Sunshine and a few afternoon clouds. High 68-75.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 48-55.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 67-74.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, chance for a few showers, mainly across the interior. High 71-78.

Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun, a few showers are possible, mainly across the interior again. High 72-79.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers likely, possibly some steady rain at night. High 70-77.

Saturday: Showers end by early afternoon, some sunny breaks may develop in the afternoon, especially across the interior. High 68-75.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 67-74.

A return to a wet pattern appears to be heading our way for a chunk of the upcoming week.

The week is actually going to start off with a line of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region this morning. Depending on when you read this, they may already be offshore. As the line moves through, they’ll produce some gusty winds, lightning, and downpours, especially north of the Mass Pike. Once they finally move through, high pressure will build in, with a rather nice day expected today. Unfortunately, today is the best it will be for a while. Winds will shift into the east on Tuesday, bringing in some clouds, but also cooler temperatures. A warm front will move through at night, with some showers accompanying it.

The middle to latter portion of the week looks the most unsettled, but also has the most uncertainty associated with it. Wednesday looks like a warm and humid day, but we’ll have a cold front approaching, which will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of the front, which is still a big question, some of those storms could become strong to severe. Behind the front, cooler weather will settle in on Thursday, but with the front stalled out nearby, and a southerly flow aloft, we’ll still have plenty of moisture around, so more showers are likely.

This brings us to Friday, which is the day with the most uncertainty at this point. We’ll continue to have tropical moisture flowing northward into the region, so more rainfall is likely. The question is, will it just be a steady stream of moisture, or will it organize into a system? Some of the models do try to develop it into an organized low pressure area, which could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. As of their early morning update, the National Hurricane Center gave the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days. (We’ll have a more detailed post on the tropics this afternoon, where we’ll take a look at this system, Tropical Storm Nicholas, which will bring heavy rain to Texas, and two other systems we’re watching in the Atlantic.) Further complicating things is the potential for the remains of Nicholas to get infused into the system, resulting in even more rainfall. Either way, it looks like Friday will be a cool, wet day, with the potential (for now) for heavy rainfall. Moisture may hang around on Saturday with plenty of clouds and possibly some more showers. Sunday may see some clearing, but that’s a low-confidence forecast right now.

Monday: Showers or thunderstorms early this morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Some early sun, then clouds filter back in. High 68-75, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day and at night. High 79-86.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. High 70-77.

Friday: Cloudy and cool with a chance of rain. High 69-76.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for some more showers. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

The first full week of September will turn out to be rather nice for the most part.

We’re starting things off this Labor Day morning with some clouds and lingering showers, but skies should clear out this afternoon as a cold front pushes offshore. As an upper-level disturbance rotates through, we could see a stray shower or thunderstorm pop up in the afternoon, mainly north and west of Boston. Clear skies, light winds, and low humidity will result in radiational cooling tonight, which means it could be rather cool in some spots when you wake up Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, resulting in a rather fine and dandy day with seasonably mild temperatures.

Humidity returns on Wednesday as a warm front moves through, but right now, it looks like most of the shower activity will hold off until after dark. Showers are likely at night, with a rumble of thunder possible as well. The showers end on Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. The end of the week and the weekend look dry with high pressure building back in. Another front may start to approach late Sunday with more clouds, but again, it looks like any shower activity should hold off until nightfall.

Hurricane Larry should be passing well to our east late this week, but it will generate large swells that will impact the beaches and coastal waters late in the week and into the weekend. This will increase the threat of rip currents. Keep this in mind if you’re planning to head to the beach or out on a boat late this week.

Monday: Any lingering showers end in the morning, then becoming partly to mostly sunny with a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 74-81.

Monday night: Clear skies. Low 53-60.

Tuesday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 71-78.

Tuesday night: Clear skies. Low 55-62.

Wednesday: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds, breezy, showers develop at night. High 77-84.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely, ending during the afternoon. High 72-79.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-77.

Saturday: Sunshine and a few clouds. High 71-78.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 72-79.

We’re going to keep this very brief today, but give you a look into Labor Day.

Warm and humid conditions are likely today ahead of a cold front. That front will produce showers and thunderstorms. some of which may be strong to severe. Drier air settles in behind the front for Tuesday as high pressure builds in. What’s left of Ida may bring in some heavy rain for Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure returns for Friday into Sunday with cooler and drier conditions, but we’ll start to warm up again for Labor Day with some showers and thunderstorms possible.

Monday: Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 80-87.

Monday night: Showers and storms end in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Low 62-69.

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, not as humid. High 79-86.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Cloudy with showers developing late in the day, possibly becoming a steady and heavy rain at night. High 72-79.

Thursday: Rain gradually ending, some clearing is possible late in the day. High 66-73.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High 69-76.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 69-76.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 71-78.

Labor Day: Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. High 72-79.

We’ll return to our more customary detailed look at things with the Weekend Outlook on Thursday, once we’re back from vacation (no, we weren’t chasing Ida in Louisiana).

Henri isn’t done with us yet, but once it finally pulls away, hot and humid weather will return.

What’s left of Henri will slowly make its way eastward across the region today. It will be a warm and humid day, with some break of sunshine possible, especially early on. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop, and some of them may produce heavy downpours. As was the case a few days ago when the remains of Fred moved through, a couple of spin-up tornadoes aren’t out of the question. If any of these do form, they’ll be short-lived and fairly weak, but can cause damage in their immediate vicinity. As for the rainfall, the heaviest rain will likely fall from western New England across southern New Hampshire, just to the north of the track of the low. This is consistent with what we normally see with tropical systems up in this neck of the woods, with most of the rainfall to the left of the track. That was certainly the case yesterday, with little rainfall across eastern Massachusetts after the initial band went through in the morning.

Everything finally pulls away overnight, then high pressure builds in for Tuesday through Thursday with warm to hot and humid conditions. Temperatures will be well into the 80s each afternoon with some lower 90s possible. Dewpoints will also be in the upper 60s and 70s across the region, so it will feel quite oppressive. A cold front will bring an end to the heat and humidity late Thursday, but there is a chance that it may not come through until Friday, which would result in another warm to hot and humid day. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier conditions for Saturday. We may start to warm up again next Sunday as another warm front approaches the region.

Monday: More clouds than sunshine with some showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. High 77-84.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and storms ending, some clear may develop late at night. Low 65-72.

Tuesday: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and humid. High 81-88.

Tuesday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 65-72.

Wednesday: Sunshine and some afternoon clouds, humid. High 83-90.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, humid, with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. High 85-92.

Friday: Partly sunny, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible. High 79-86.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sun, much cooler. High 70-77.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 73-80.

We’ve got a nice start to the week with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity, but changes are coming once again.

After the heat and humidity of last week, much more comfortable air settled in late Saturday, and it will remain in place Tuesday thanks to a large high pressure area. However, as that high slides offshore later on Tuesday southwest winds will start to send humidity levels rising again, but that’s just a taste of what is coming.

Much of the remainder of the week looks warm (but not hot) and quite humid, but also unsettled. High pressure will remain anchored offshore, pumping the humid air into the region. Although it will be warm, it won’t be hot, because we’ll actually have plenty of cloudcover at times, along with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Eventually some of the moisture from Fred (more on the tropics down below) should get in here, enhancing the rainfall. We’re not quite going back to our record-breaking wet pattern from July, but some parts of the region could pick up a decent amount of rain during the latter half of the week. The day with the most uncertainty is Sunday, which could end up drier and cooler if a cold front drops southward across the region.

As for the tropics, there are now three systems in the Atlantic that we’re watching. Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle late tonight or early Tuesday as a strong tropical storm, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if it somehow became a hurricane before landfall. It should rapidly weaken once inland. Tropical Depression Grace is expected to remain weak as it passes close to or over Hispaniola and Cuba over the next few days, assuming it even survives the trip. If it does, it could start to strengthen as it gets into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Finally, we have Tropical Depression Eight, which formed near Bermuda late Sunday night. It will bring some squally conditions to Bermuda over the next day or two, and should gradually strengthen, but right now, doesn’t look like it’ll impact any other land areas. We’ll have a much more detailed look at the tropics later today in another blog post.

Monday: Sunshine and some high clouds. High 75-82.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low 57-64.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 78-85.

Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 64-71.

Wednesday: Plenty of clouds with a few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77-84.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 77-84.

Friday: Clouds and some sunny breaks with more showers and thunderstorms possible. High 76-83.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, with a few showers or thunderstorms around. High 78-85.

Sunday: Partly sunny, chance for more showers and thunderstorms. High 76-83.

Finally, we’ll leave you with this thought. In Montana, temperatures are likely going to top 100 across central and eastern parts of the state today, and again tomorrow. Then a strong cold front is going cross the region later Tuesday and Wednesday. Behind that front, temperatures will be 40-50 degrees cooler than the day before. Oh, but the temperature drop isn’t the only concern. Take Helena, MT for example. The GFS has a forecast high of 96 in Helena today. Tomorrow night, that same model is forecasting a low of 34, accompanied by 5″ of snow.