Weekly Outlook: September 13-19, 2021

A return to a wet pattern appears to be heading our way for a chunk of the upcoming week.

The week is actually going to start off with a line of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region this morning. Depending on when you read this, they may already be offshore. As the line moves through, they’ll produce some gusty winds, lightning, and downpours, especially north of the Mass Pike. Once they finally move through, high pressure will build in, with a rather nice day expected today. Unfortunately, today is the best it will be for a while. Winds will shift into the east on Tuesday, bringing in some clouds, but also cooler temperatures. A warm front will move through at night, with some showers accompanying it.

The line of showers and thunderstorms should weaken as it moves through this morning. Loop provided by Weathermodels.com

The middle to latter portion of the week looks the most unsettled, but also has the most uncertainty associated with it. Wednesday looks like a warm and humid day, but we’ll have a cold front approaching, which will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of the front, which is still a big question, some of those storms could become strong to severe. Behind the front, cooler weather will settle in on Thursday, but with the front stalled out nearby, and a southerly flow aloft, we’ll still have plenty of moisture around, so more showers are likely.

Wednesday is looking quite warm, especially for mid-September. Image provided by WeatherBell.

This brings us to Friday, which is the day with the most uncertainty at this point. We’ll continue to have tropical moisture flowing northward into the region, so more rainfall is likely. The question is, will it just be a steady stream of moisture, or will it organize into a system? Some of the models do try to develop it into an organized low pressure area, which could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. As of their early morning update, the National Hurricane Center gave the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days. (We’ll have a more detailed post on the tropics this afternoon, where we’ll take a look at this system, Tropical Storm Nicholas, which will bring heavy rain to Texas, and two other systems we’re watching in the Atlantic.) Further complicating things is the potential for the remains of Nicholas to get infused into the system, resulting in even more rainfall. Either way, it looks like Friday will be a cool, wet day, with the potential (for now) for heavy rainfall. Moisture may hang around on Saturday with plenty of clouds and possibly some more showers. Sunday may see some clearing, but that’s a low-confidence forecast right now.

As you’d expect in mid-September, the Atlantic is fairly active right now. Image provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Monday: Showers or thunderstorms early this morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 73-80.

Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 54-61.

Tuesday: Some early sun, then clouds filter back in. High 68-75, coolest along the coast.

Tuesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing. Low 60-67.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day and at night. High 79-86.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. High 70-77.

Friday: Cloudy and cool with a chance of rain. High 69-76.

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chance for some more showers. High 73-80.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. High 77-84.

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